Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Daring: Patriots’ Offseason Decisions Too Bold? | Waddle vs Brown Debate!

Starting point is 00:00:00 One Pat's insider thinks the team is assuming lots of risk with their offseason approach. Well, I disagree. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles.

Starting point is 00:00:28 And on today's show, I love the player Mel Kuyper has the Pats picking in his latest mock draft. but I do not love picking that player. In the second segment, the Jalen Waddle Domino falls and it significantly impacts New England. But first, the risk reward of Patriots free agency. The Pat's offseason has not gone without risk. We've talked about some of the risk, but the question today is whether or not the Patriots

Starting point is 00:00:57 approach in this early offseason has been too risky for the football team. Chad Graff wrote about that in the last 24, 48 hours at the athletic, and Chad Graff named five big risks of this early offseason and what this might look like going down the road. Number one, Elijah Vera Tucker, risking he stays healthy. Number two, risking the fact that Philadelphia is asking price for A.J. Brown will take a quote unquote dip in June. Number three, risking that Morgan Moses stays healthy at 35.

Starting point is 00:01:33 years old. Number four, Harold Landry bounces back, risking that at edge. And number five, risking that Romeo Dobbs has not peaked as an NFL wide receiver. Now, to me, when I look at this offseason so far, I do not think the Patriots have been too risky with their plans. I don't think they've gone too far. We have to acknowledge, first and foremost, that free agency by its nature is inherently risky, like 90% of the time. How many times have we talked about on this podcast the idea of Milton Williams and how Milton Williams was a free agency unicorn back in 2025? You don't see a lot of guys who are as talented,

Starting point is 00:02:25 as appreciated, respected the reputation through the roof on and off the field. you don't see a lot of those guys at 25, 26 years old coming off arguably their best season in the NFL. You don't see a lot of those guys become available. A lot of those guys get signed by their own teams. So why was Milton Williams available? Because Philadelphia absolutely was loaded on the defensive line, especially on the interior defensive line. They have a lot of young guys. They have to pay expensive extensions.

Starting point is 00:03:01 to and not just on the inside of that D-line, but at other places as well. So it was a very unique circumstance that led to Milton Williams being a free agent. So when we talk about free agency, there is always risk involved somehow, some way, or at least 90% of the time, there is that risk. So the first question that I asked, I would ask Chad Graff, maybe he listens, Chad, I'm asking you. I would also ask the listeners, the viewers of this, podcast, what other options did you have? You have to ask yourself that question before you ask whether or not a particular move was too risky. For example, Elijah Veritucker, I think that move is risky. Now, the reason why I think that move is more risky than some others this

Starting point is 00:03:53 offseason so far is because you did have options. You had other options. We talked about it at the time, We talked about it leading into free agency. You had guys like Isaac Seamula, and you had guys like, you know, Joel Betonio and other interior offensive linemen. Seamalo, he got signed quickly. Betonio, last I saw, he's still available if he decides to continue to play football, which feels like it's still a question. But you had other interior offensive line options on the free agency market that did not involve the type of injury history that AVT brings to the table. So I would say, yes, that's a pretty decently sized risk. Now, Ben Brown mitigates that risk. Maybe even Jared Wilson, if you want to move them back

Starting point is 00:04:40 to left guard, could mitigate that risk. But yes, I would agree with that. As far as Philadelphia's asking price, quote unquote, dipping for A.J. Brown. Well, is that really a risk? Is that really a risk? because there is no clear option to go out and get an alpha, is there? I don't think Miami would trade Jalen Waddle to New England. And if they traded Jalen Waddle to New England, you were certainly going to have to pay more, if not a lot more, than Denver paid. You talked to Alec Pierce, reportedly. Alec Pierce decided to stay in Indy and got a big bag of money to do so.

Starting point is 00:05:20 Mike Evans, even if you went out and you signed Mike Evans, Plenty of risk there with his age in the injuries last year. So is it really a risk to see whether or not Philly will lower their asking price eventually? Is it not more risky giving up a first and second round pick right now for A.J. Brown. Or is it less risky to do that than to try to wait this out? We'll talk about more on A.J. Brown's value in the next segment, by the way. Morgan Moses, I don't think it's a huge risk. He played really well in 2025. Were you going to overpay for guys to replace Morgan Moses? Those guys that you want to pay, they have questions as well. There's a reason why the tackle market wasn't super hot. Or do you stick with Morgan Moses and say to yourself, No, we're going to stick with Morgan Moses because he was really good last year. He has a long history of fighting through injuries and playing at a competent level.

Starting point is 00:06:29 We're only asking him to go one more year. And we'll go into the draft in April. And we will try to find somebody who can eventually supplant Morgan Moses at right tackle. Which brings me to this. We can't lose sight of the fact that the Patriots have told us they want to be a draft and develop football team. So, you know, some of these risks, I don't think they're huge risks because I expect the Patriots to go into the draft and address tackle and address the interior offensive line and address defensive edge and probably address wide receiver, especially if they're not sold on the idea that AJ Brown will eventually be a patriot. So we can't lose sight of the fact that you still have the draft, and that is the main vehicle of how to build an NFL roster.

Starting point is 00:07:27 And I think some of these quote unquote risks, again, the draft will help address how much of a risk they actually are. Harold Landry is less of a risk if you go out and draft two defensive ends. He's less of a risk if you go out. and you say to yourself, we're going to sign one of these veterans who are still out there like a Cam Jordan, A.J. Epinessa,

Starting point is 00:07:54 DeVian Clowny, maybe old friend Kyle Van Nuoy. So there's still plenty of time to mitigate these risks. And frankly, I don't really get the Romeo Dobbs has peaked risk. I don't really get that one. 2025, arguably, Romeo Dobbs' best season in the NFL,

Starting point is 00:08:19 NFL. ESPN receiver score had him as a top 20 receiver. Aaron Schatz's DVOA had him as a top 20 receiver right at 20, by the way, if we want to get specific. He's 25. He's going to turn 26 years old in April. So I'm not worried about his age. Josh McDaniels, offensive coordinator, Drake May, his quarterback and seemingly a perfect fit for the Patriots offensive system. So I don't really get the did Romeo Dobbs peak too, you know, too much or too soon for the Patriots? I don't really get that risk. So I'm fine with the offseason so far. Has there been some risk?

Starting point is 00:09:04 Yes. Should that have been expected? Yes. But let's not forget. Draft and develop. Jalen Waddle is traded and the impact should be felt throughout the Pat's facility. It's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots.

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Starting point is 00:11:30 Event contracts are offered by Robin Hood derivatives LLC, a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Speaking of, you can join the Everydayer Club now with Code March and get your first month free. You want to sign up before the NCAA tournament tips off on Thursday. afternoon compete in our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord. The winner and each will get $100 in locked on merchandise.

Starting point is 00:12:01 Head to lockdown patriots.supercast.com or check the link in the show notes. Also don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe when you click that thumbs up watching on YouTube, it helps us get more eyeballs to the product, throw a comment in as well. How much risk do you think the Patriots have assumed so far this offseason? is it too much risk for your liking? Throw a comment in and don't forget to subscribe. We are now past 9,200 subscribers. Our goal is to get to 10,000 by draft weekend.

Starting point is 00:12:32 Jalen Waddle, if you've been living under a rock, he has been traded. And I think Jalen Waddle going to the Denver Broncos has a pretty significant domino effect on the Patriots in multiple ways. Number one, let's get to A.J. Brown. A lot of people talking about A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown's trade value to me seems pegged after this Waddled trade. So Jalen Waddle, in a fourth round pick in this year's draft, which is the 11th pick in the round, by the way, going to the Broncos. The Broncos in return sent Miami a 2026 first round pick, which is 30th

Starting point is 00:13:12 overall, a third round pick and a fourth round pick, both of those picks late in those respective of rounds. Now, Bert Breer posted on Wednesday about the value of that trade using the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart. And Bert Breer wrote that Denver is sending out the equivalent of the 25th pick to Miami for Waddle. And how you come up with that is, you know, Miami, they're up, you know, 714 points. If you look at that value chart, the 20, The 25th pick is 720 points. So that's how you get there. So if you wanted to compare this to what the Patriots might have to give up in an AJ Brown trade,

Starting point is 00:14:01 using that Jimmy Johnson value chart, the Patriots to get to 720 points would have to trade their first round pick, number 31, and their third round pick number 95. Now, as weird as this is, if you try to hit 720, you actually hit exactly 720 using the Jimmy Johnson chart by trading your first round pick and third round pick in this year's draft. That would get you to 720 points. However, however, I do not, I do not value A.J. Brown equally to J. Waddle. I actually think Waddle has more value than Brown. You are trading, if you do trade, you are trading for what. What A.J. Brown is going to do, not what A.J. Brown has done.

Starting point is 00:14:59 The Broncos are not trading for Waddle because of what Waddle accomplished in Miami. They traded for Waddle because they believe he has more meat left on that bone. They believe that he is going to be a highly productive player for their football team. You don't pay for past, you know, experiences in the resume. You don't pay for what a player did in his past. You're paying for what the player you think is going to do in the future. And there's a number of different reasons why I would value A.J. Brown lower than valuing J. Lawdle.

Starting point is 00:15:37 Number one, the physical issues. Mike Florio, I know he came out on Wednesday and talked about degenerative knees and stuff like that. The knee problems of AJ Brown have been well documented. You go back to 2021. He had both knees worked on surgery-wise. You go back to, you know, I think it was what, last August of 2025 when he was on part of my take.

Starting point is 00:15:59 And he talked about getting his knees drained twice a week every week. And then before games and all this other stuff. He has some significant knee issues. Bert Breer has been reporting and talking about this for months, if not years. Brown is also older than Waddle. He's almost 18 months older than Waddle. You would argue, and I would argue, that when you look at somebody's trajectory of their career, Brown is on the decline while Waddle is in the middle of his peak.

Starting point is 00:16:32 So different, different level of player right now currently in the middle of March, 2006, not 2003. Brown also has more leverage to push for a new contract because he has a potential contractual out after 2026. And I think if you trade for Brown,

Starting point is 00:16:54 he's going to want some new money. Waddle, his out is not after until after, you know, 2027. So you have another year of his services without having to really be concerned about any kind of contract stuff.

Starting point is 00:17:08 A.J. Brown's cap hit the next two years is about $14 million more than Waddles. Oh, and by the way, how about all the drama baggage that Brown brings that Waddle does not bring? So those are many reasons, and I think there are other reasons that you can look at. But I think Jalen Waddle's value is higher than Browns. And so if you're telling me, using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, a first in a third this year would get the deal done. I'm offering a first and a fourth. Now, if the Patriots had a higher pick in the second round, I'd start there. But because they got to the Super Bowl, I would offer number 31 in one of my two fourth round picks.

Starting point is 00:17:53 Philly can want a first and a second all that they want, right? They can want it all day long. I want a million dollars to show up on my front doorstep tomorrow morning. We all want certain things. but trading a first and a second using Jalen Waddle's trade, that is an overpay. I think a fair, valued offer from the Patriots is a first and a fourth from this year's draft. Two other things about the Jalen Waddle trade. Of course, the Broncos, who played you in the AFC championship game,

Starting point is 00:18:29 they were the number one seat last year. They just got better. They just decided to support their young quarterback in Bo Nix. Waddle brings a yards after catch element that was not necessarily a strong suit for the Broncos offense. And his fit within the offense is really good. Jeff Legwald from ESPN wrote that Bo Nix's best areas of the field were hook routes, where he was third in QBR, pivot routes. He was fourth.

Starting point is 00:19:00 In crossing routes, he was 14th. As Jeff Legwald writes, those are all spots where Waddle can enhance what Bo Nix does best. Waddle's yards per route overall last season ranked 11th best, well ahead of the highest ranked Broncos receiver on the list, Cortland Sutton at 43. On those specific routes, on crossing routes, Waddle was 10th in the league. Troy Franklin was the highest ranked Broncos receiver in yards per crossing route. He was 18th, and the only Denver player among the league's top 75 in that category. So what Bo Nix loves to do, that's where Jalen Waddle eats.

Starting point is 00:19:43 And so, you know, I think Cortland Sutton is also going to get more one-on-ones on the outside. There's really no debate. Jalen Waddle makes the Broncos better. He makes their offense better. He makes Bo Nicks better. For Miami, obviously division rival, they're kicking the can. They have $175 million in dead cap charges for this season. 175 million.

Starting point is 00:20:09 We've been talking about the dead cap number for A.J. Brown if he gets dealt. 175 million of dead money. Good luck to Malik Willis. The Malik Willis experiment is now going to be even tougher. But Miami's building, and they know they're building. They have a ton of draft capital coming up in April. They now have two firsts, a second. They have four third round picks in this year's draft.

Starting point is 00:20:35 They have a fourth, they have a fifth, and they have two sevenths. So they're going to try to draft and develop and build this thing, starting with this year's draft with all of those picks. And I would imagine they're going to do a decent amount of trading on draft weekend to get picks in 2027, to maybe move up for certain guys in this year's draft. And if on the Patriots, I am. definitely motivated. I am more motivated

Starting point is 00:21:04 to support Drake May after watching the Broncos pull the trigger on this Waddle deal. And you got to be prepared now for a better Broncos team in 2026. Mel Kuyper's latest mock draft is out. Love the player.

Starting point is 00:21:23 Going to the Patriots, just not so sure I love the pick. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. your team every day. Today's episode is brought to by Five Hour Energy. Welcome to the Five Hour Energy Flavor Draft with 18 different flavors on the board

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Starting point is 00:22:37 Don't forget to like. Don't forget to comment. Don't forget to subscribe. Help a brother out. Help a pot out. Help a community out, my friends. Let's continue to build lockdown Patriots. By the way, shout out to the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:22:48 They had a social media post come out this week. And it actually included not one but two, not one but two audio cuts from Lockdown Patriots. Kind of cool. Appreciate you. We went along with the NFL network and NBC Sports, Boston, and 985 the sports hub. I appreciate you.

Starting point is 00:23:08 All right. It's time to start paying attention to these mock drafts. We're getting closer about five weeks away or so from the NFL draft. And Mel Kuiper, we all know who he is, released his latest mock draft. And I've got some observations. The Patriots in this mock draft, they end up picking Casey Concepcion at number 31. He's a player we talked about before free agency. We've talked about him a couple times.

Starting point is 00:23:34 Here's what Mel Kiper wrote about the Patriots selecting KCC at 31. I'm not sure the Dobb signing fully checks the wide receiver box. Concepcion averaged 15.1 yards per catch last season, and he'd stretch the field, but don't sleep on his ability to also turn quick routes into big gains. Concepcion had 449 yards after the catch last season. He'd also make an instant impact in the return game. He had two punt returns in 2020. I love KC Concepcion. I've talked about it. I love KCC, saw him play a number of times in 2025. I'm a college football fan, and I think he's a really talented guy. My question is, does he really fit after the signing of Romeo Dobbs? I don't disagree with Mel Kuiper where he says he's not sure if Dobbs checks the wide receiver box. As a room, I think as we've talked about,

Starting point is 00:24:32 the Patriots still need that alpha kind of guy. Hence the AJ Brown conversation we had last segment. But my issue is Romeo Dobbs is pretty similar to what KCC would bring to your offense. The KCC, he separates, but he's not the big body catch radius boundary X receiver type guy that I think the Patriots would love to get. again, the AJ Brown stuff. KCC is 5'11, about 190 pounds. Now, if you tell me the Patriots are going to go positionless, that wide receiver, and they're just going to keep flip-flopping guys all over the joint,

Starting point is 00:25:16 then I would believe in the KCC pick more. But KCC, and when we talked about him, again, around combine time, before the combine, When we discussed him as a possibility for the Pats, we talked about him fulfilling the Stefan Diggs role if you let Stefan Diggs go. Well, the Patriots did release Diggs as we know, but to me, they replaced him with Romeo Dobbs. So I don't know if the KCC fit makes sense after that signing. A second observation.

Starting point is 00:25:54 You know, if you're going to draft. Casey Concepcion, I want to know who else was available at 31, right? And when we talk about this draft, and we're going to talk a lot about it over the next five weeks, as we build up to this draft, we talk about the positions the Patriots are looking for. And there's no doubt, hands down, outside linebacker slash defensive end, an edge player. That is a position the Patriots are absolutely going to look for. As I said, in the first segment, I would not be surprised if they draft a couple. and I've said that. I would not be surprised if they draft two defensive edges in this draft.

Starting point is 00:26:33 And so who was there at number 31 that plays outside linebackers slash defensive end? Cassius Howell was there at 31. Akeem Mezzador was there at 31. T.J. Parker was there. R. Mason Thomas was there. in Mel Kuyper's mock draft. Cassius Howell, Akeem Mesidor, T.J. Parker, R. Mason Thomas, were all there available at number 31.

Starting point is 00:27:01 Let's look at the wide receiver position itself, also available at number 31. Denzel Boston, Chris Brasel, who we discussed on yesterday's podcast. Omar Cooper Jr. was also there. So it's still early. Again, we got five weeks to go. But to me, it would be very, very tough.

Starting point is 00:27:28 And you could also look at some tackles and stuff, but it would be really tough. If I am Mike Vrable, Elliott Wolf, Ryan Cowden, John Stretch striker, I'm sitting in the draft room on that Thursday night,

Starting point is 00:27:41 and I've got my pick of those players I just mentioned, it would be really, really difficult to turn down Cassius Howell or Akeem Emessador at that number 31 pick. I think those two guys would make more sense than drafting KCC. And I think when you look at Denzel Boston and Chris Brousel, those guys are more the, you know, X boundary catch radius type receiver.

Starting point is 00:28:12 So I love KC Concepcion. But if the draft fell, the way Mel Kiper has his mock draft falling, it'd be tough because I love the player. But I would inevitably pass on KCC. and I would be looking at edge, and I would be staring right down the barrel of a Cassius hobble or a Keem Mesedore. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen

Starting point is 00:28:39 and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button. Give us a thumbs up and subscribe. And of course, you can join the Everydayer Club now with Code March, get your first month free, sign up before the NCAA tournament tips off on Thursday.

Starting point is 00:28:57 compete in our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord. The winner in each of those pools will get $100 in locked on merchandise. Head to lockdownpatriots.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Have a great day and we will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Daring: Patriots’ Offseason Decisions Too Bold? | Waddle vs Brown Debate!

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