Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Dilemma: Drake Maye Poses Challenges For Steelers | Can Pats Defense Awake?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The patch tried to do something they haven't done since 2002. Can you imagine? Yeah, it's been since 2022 that this team has won back-to-back games. They try to do that this weekend against the Steelers. It's time to break this game down only like we can. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team, every day. What's happening? I am Nick Cattels. You're a host.

Starting point is 00:00:34 It's been covering the Patriots for the past 16 years. Also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels. I've been on radio for a number of years as well. I do want to let all of you know before we get started with today's preview. We're going to go live shortly after Sunday's game. So when Pat's Steelers are all wrapped up within about an hour or so, we will go live on YouTube to react to the game. So make sure you're here on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:00:58 Make sure you subscribe to this. channel so you know that we're going live when we do. And hopefully it's a lot of fun to break down the game. But on today's episode, we're going to tell you why we think Drake May and the offense could actually have a pretty good day against the Steelers. And then we'll get to our prediction coming up for Sunday, a game that is likely going to be tight. But first, let's look at how the paths can limit Aaron Rogers and company. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen. And for being an every day or the Lockdown Patriots podcast, a proud partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:01:30 And today's episode is brought to by our friends at Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Let's look at the Patriots defense against this Steelers offense. That's where we start. Christian Gonzalez is one of the biggest questions this week, back-to-back days, limited at practice, but he was out there. And on Thursday, he was actually taking part in drills.

Starting point is 00:01:56 according to Mike Giardi, that other starters were taking part in. So it does make you believe Gonzalez playing on Sunday. I don't know if I'd say is a likelihood, but at least it's a possibility, maybe inching towards probability. So Christian Gonzalez might be out there on Sunday. Zach Corr is going to be calling the defensive plays for the second straight week. Terrell Williams has been at the facility this week. But Mike Vrable said that he wanted to make sure that there was continuity

Starting point is 00:02:26 with the play calling until they know, until they know for sure, for certain what Terrell Williams' prognosis is in how they can handle the situation. They want continuity. So Zach Corr is once again your defensive play caller. And the game plan for the Patriots, as we know, it changes from week to week, a la Bill Belichick back in the day.

Starting point is 00:02:48 Mike Vrable likes to change it up from week to week depending on opponent. Week one, perfect example, against the Raiders. The Patriots blitzed a ton. And then against Miami, almost no blitzing whatsoever against Tua, Tung of Ioloa, and Jalen Waddell and Tyreek Hill. We also have to mention that with the Steelers right now, organization a number of Patriots, including Jabro Peppers is now a stealer. Joanne Bentley signed to the practice squad this week. And Arthur Smith, not a former Patriot, but has a strong relationship with Mike Vrable. So you wonder how that's going to play into this.

Starting point is 00:03:24 this Sunday. All right, let's start with Jalen Warren, because I think he's one of the most important guys in this football game, and he should be a top priority for the Patriots defense. Mike Defabo of the Athletic wrote that Warren has a 6.2 yards per touch average this season. Now, he was helped by a 65-yard catch-and-run last week against Seattle, so that will always help out the averages. But Warren is a legitimate weapon. He's that jitterbug type running back. He makes people miss, yards after the catch is a big issue. The Patriots have to make sure they lock down on because Jalen Warren will kill you with his legs after the catch.

Starting point is 00:04:03 You cannot give up an extra 10, 15, 20, 30 yards and allow 5 yard gains turn into chunk plays. Don't allow 5 yard gains to turn into those explosive plays that we talk about. Taylor Kyle's posted that the Steelers are the only team with over 300 yards after the catch. And that's thanks largely to Jalen Warren and D.K. Metcalf. We know. We know the Patriots have had some issues against tight ends and running backs. We just saw this last week against Devon A. Chan. And you can't let Jalen Warren out of the box early. You got to do all that you can to slow him down. Aaron Rogers is pumping the tires of Jalen Warren to the media. And that

Starting point is 00:04:44 usually means that person is going to get more touches. When Aaron Rogers comes out and says, we should be giving him the football more, then it usually means the team is going to follow suit and give that guy the football more. And here's what Rogers said about Jalen Warren during this week. He brings a lot to the table. We might have to keep giving him more opportunities in the past game because every time he touches it, something good happens. The other running back for the Steelers that we should not just completely overlook. And Chris Carter hit on this during the episode of the crossover with the Steelers Patriots is Kenneth Gainwell. Now, his statistics are not great. But the thing with Kenneth Gainwell is he can manipulate defensive coverages, which is why Arthur Smith likes him

Starting point is 00:05:26 on the field. And so watch out for Kenneth Gainwell getting lined up against safeties and linebackers. I can guarantee you the Steelers are going to try to do that with their running backs, at least from time to time. I'd also look at Jono Smith, who has not really been involved as much with the Steelers' offense as I thought he might be early on with his history with Arthur Smith, but I would not be surprised. If you look at the film, you see the Patriots have some issues against Brock Bowers, week one. They had issues all camp long against tight ends.

Starting point is 00:05:58 I would not be surprised if Jono Smith and Pat Friermuth are maybe bigger parts of the game plan this week for Pittsburgh because they can be an issue. And we know John Hussmith. He's athletic. He's good after the catch. But Jalen Warren is priority number one. Now, with that said, I'm going to be transparent with you.

Starting point is 00:06:20 I'm going to be honest. The Pittsburgh run game has stunk out loud through the first two weeks of this season. And the Patriots should have a good opportunity to shut that run game down. How bad has the Steelers run game been? I'll give you some stats. They are 30th in yards per game. 30th in yards per play. 26th in EPA per rush.

Starting point is 00:06:42 They have the 10th highest stuff percentage. 19 and a half percent of their runs have been stuffed. No gain or a loss, baby. They're at 23rd in the NFL and success rate. 39% of their runs have been successful. And when you look at the biggest issue, there are 28th and yards before contact, which means the offensive line isn't getting much push

Starting point is 00:07:06 for the run game in Pittsburgh. 28th in yards before contact. I wonder if the Patriots will play more of Anthony Jennings. We talked about him after the game against Miami. I thought in his very limited role, he got the most out of his opportunities. He was very good against the run, especially in that early second half. He helped bottle up A. Chan and kind of slow that Miami momentum with the run game they had. Will we see more of Jennings?

Starting point is 00:07:34 Will we see more of Jennings because of his game against Miami? Or will we see more of Jennings because both K. Levan Chase on and Harold Landry have been limited for both practices this week? I wouldn't be shocked if we see a little bit more of Anthony Jennings with what he did last weekend. And as we've seen with the Patriots offense, if you can't run the ball, that limits the play action. And the Steelers have been really good in play action. Mike DeFabbeau from the Athletic wrote the Steelers offense has been at its best off play action. Rogers has thrown three of his touchdown passes. His passerating is 121.1 off play action.

Starting point is 00:08:13 and having some success on the ground, as Defabo writes, is important in the long run to keep linebackers and other second-level defenders honest. It gets Rogers and the bootleg going. And if you can't run the football, it's also going to hurt your pass protection because you're so one-dimensional. Back to Defabo. Rogers has 2.73 seconds to throw the fourth shortest amount of time in the league, and he's been sacked on 11.8% of the dropbacks, the eighth highest rate.

Starting point is 00:08:42 Speaking of Rogers, what's he look like? Well, I watched the game, Pittsburgh versus Seattle last week, and I watched that game on Monday morning. And I will tell you that Rogers, his mobility is better than it was at the very beginning of his Jets tenure. Coming off the Achilles and all that stuff, he just, he looked like a different guy. I'm not telling you he's a great athlete. He's 41 years old.

Starting point is 00:09:05 He's lost some of that athleticism. But he does have better mobility than you might remember him having the last time the Patriots faced him. As Rogers goes, usually, he's not under center a ton. He loves the shotgun. He loves getting rid of the football quickly. The Steelers only had nine snaps under center against Seattle last weekend. Six of those nine plays were runs.

Starting point is 00:09:28 And I look at this offense for Pittsburgh, and I wonder, what's going on at wide receiver? It's D.K. Metcalf robust. They really don't have a reliable number two or a reliable number three. and that's going to impact your passing game. And in Rogers, he's been okay. He's 12th in the league in passer rating, but his yards per attempt are 18th. He's 15th in completion percentage over expected.

Starting point is 00:09:55 He's 21st in EPA. He's 20th in EPA per dropback. And those numbers are mediocre to below average, even though Rogers has only faced the 12th lowest pressure percentage in football, and Seattle was able to pretty much bottle up the Steelers' offense without Devon Witherspoon, their best corner. There's a lack of explosiveness. There's this feel that if you limit Jalen Warren after the catch and you limit D.K. Metcalf, this offense is not going to do damage in chunks. And you've got to make sure that you tackle, which has been a major problem

Starting point is 00:10:33 for the Patriots, as we know. You've got to make sure that you tackle the Steelers. But there's not a lot of explosiveness to this offense, as long as you tackle and you do a solid job against Warren and Metcab. All right. Up next, we'll tell you how Josh McDaniels should attack this Steelers defense and the interesting decision Pittsburgh has to make on Sunday. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. It's almost a weekend.

Starting point is 00:11:05 Time to look back and crown this week's MVP on Who Delivered, Powered by Do. DoorDash, just like you can win every Saturday with DoorDash streaks, saving more every time you order these players delivered when it mattered most. Let's break it down. For New England, this is an easy one. It's all about Drake May delivering in a big time way. May finish near the top of almost every single statistical and analytical category in week two, while finishing with only four incompletions in accounting for three touchdowns. When the pressure was on, Drake May came through. No hesitation, no delay. Now let's hope this starts a streak for both May. and the Patriots. And just like Drake May delivered for New England, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays with DoorDash streaks. You save every Saturday you order, stack it up all season, and you could save up to $250, including $100 in DoorDash credits. Order this Saturday, keep the streak alive, fuel your game day,

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Starting point is 00:13:18 Alex Highsmith is going to be out on Sunday. That's a big loss. Joey Porter has not practiced this week. Looks like he's going to be out for the Patriots offense. Morgan Moses and Jared Wilson, both of those guys have been limited. We'll see if that's a big issue or not. Patriots, it feels like they tend to manage some of their guys. I don't think Jared Wilson would get managed, but I do think Morgan Moses would. So here are three keys for the Patriots offense against this Steelers defense that has been struggling. Run the football number one. Run the football.

Starting point is 00:13:53 The Pittsburgh run defense has been leaky. The Steelers against the run so far in the first two weeks, they are 28th in yards per game. They've given up a ton of rushing yards. They are 20th in EPA per rush. But here's the thing. They are actually sixth in stuff percentage, and they are 11th in yards per play at 4.4 yards. And they have a number of tackles for loss and run stuffs. So the problem for the Steelers defense against the run really has been it's boom or bust.

Starting point is 00:14:27 Because while they've had a number of run stuffs and a number of tackles for loss, they've also been 29th in the league through the first two weeks, giving up 10, 10 plus yard runs. So they're not giving up four or five yards consistently, but they're giving up some big chunks. And if you watch the game against Seattle, you saw that. Zach Charbonnet could not get anywhere for Seattle's offense. They shut down Zach Charbonnet consistently.

Starting point is 00:14:59 But Kenneth Walker went off. And so they're having some issue keeping that consistency, and they tend to give up some big runs. So run the ball on Sunday. I'd like to see a similar approach the Patriots had to Miami. Come out and try to establish that run. Now, maybe Josh McDaniels will feel differently because he'll think the Steelers looked at the film and that they'll be ready for two or three straight runs.

Starting point is 00:15:25 But I would not be against the idea of going out there and trying to set the tone offensively by running the football and see if you can bust a big runout pretty early in this game because the Steelers have given those up. Another thing about running against Pittsburgh, and I'm sure some of you have heard this already. Dan Orlovsky did a great job on ESPN, breaking down another issue for the Steelers' run defense, and that's they can't stop the run when you run away from T.J. Watt. It reminds me of week one. People were wondering why the Patriots were not running the football to the right.

Starting point is 00:15:59 Well, they didn't run the football to the right because Max Crosby is lined up on that side for the Raiders defense. and Max Crosby is one of the best run-defending edges in all of football. And T.J. Watt, if you look at this, these stats that I'm going to give you here in a minute, it would tell you that T.J. Watt does a much better job against the run than Nick Herbig and anybody else who's on the opposite side of him. Because as Dan Rolofsky pointed out on ESPN, teams that have run away from Watt, they've run away from Watt 34 times, and they're averaging six yards per, carry. When teams have run towards Watt, they've done that 13 times, they're only averaging two and a half yards a carry. So what I would say is be ready for plenty of runs to the left.

Starting point is 00:16:50 And I think the Patriots will also try to get that outside zone run game going because the Steelers have been vulnerable against those types of run plays. Second big point here for the Patriots offense. I'm fascinated to see how the Steelers will defend Drake May. I think Drake May is a very, very tricky assignment for this Steelers defense. The Steelers love to blitz. They are third in the NFL in blitz rate. So keep that in mind. The Steelers love to blitz.

Starting point is 00:17:21 Meanwhile, through the first two weeks, as Evan Lazar pointed out at Patriots.com, the Raiders in the Dolphins played zone coverage against Drake May, 83.3% of his dropbacks. That's the fifth highest. in the NFL. And it's over a 10% increase from his rookie season where he was at 71.2%. So the Raiders and the dolphins both went into their game saying, we've got to play zone coverage against May. And that's because they're afraid of Drake May's legs. If you play man coverage and you get too aggressive, it opens the door for May to run and cause havoc by scrambling and extending

Starting point is 00:18:00 plays. So teams have gone into these games so far this year and said, we've got to play zone coverage against this offense. The problem is, again, Pittsburgh loves the blitz, and therefore, Pittsburgh plays a lot of man coverage. And if you love to blitz, here's the thing. May's done a very good job against the blitz. Taylor Kyle's posted the numbers per pro football focus. According to PFF, Drake May has the eighth most dropbacks against the blitz in the NFL so far. His passer rating is seventh overall. He has two touches. He has two touches. touchdowns, zero interceptions, and he's been getting rid of the football on an average of 2.44 seconds, which is the ninth fastest in the league. And Drake May also has zero, 0.0 turnover worthy plays

Starting point is 00:18:50 against the Blitz through two games, and he's only been sacked once. So this is going to be tricky for the Steelers defense. They like to blitz. They like to play man coverage. But Drake May has done a great job against the Blitz, and teams have shown through the first two weeks that you want to play zone. Is that going to force Pittsburgh out of their comfort zone? No pun intended. And if you watch the Seattle game, Seattle, they beat up Pittsburgh's defense on play action. They beat them up on slants, and they beat them up by moving Sam Darnold in the pocket with some bootleg action and all of that. Precisely what we've seen Drake May and Josh McDaniels do at times, especially last week.

Starting point is 00:19:31 play action slants move the pocket and we talk about the Patriots giving up these explosive plays well guess what the Steelers look at the Patriots and they say hold hold our beer because Pittsburgh has given up a league high according to Evan Lazare Pittsburgh's given up a league high 24.1% explosive pass play rate they're giving up chunks of yards in their man coverage so how will they defend Drake May Now, the offensive line, they have to button things up. And that's my third and final point here for the offense. Button up, button up the procedural stuff.

Starting point is 00:20:10 Pass protection has been good. But no more false starts, no holdings. Make sure you stop getting penalized. Now, T.J. Watt, much like Max Crosby, lines up mostly against the right tackle. So I'm looking at you, Morgan Moses. And if Morgan Moses has to take a seat, I'm especially looking at you, Marcus Bryant. and that would be a tall task if Bryant has to play this game on Sunday. Pittsburgh, they live on pressure.

Starting point is 00:20:37 Again, they love to blitz, third in the league in blitz rate, their fifth in pressure rate, their ninth in time the pressure. T.J. Watt against Moses or Bryant. And also, Will Campbell versus Nick Herbig. Keep an eye on those matchups. Here's the good news. Ben Baldwin, the computer cowboy on Twitter, he posted the composite past protection rankings today.

Starting point is 00:21:02 And he looked at, you know, the composite is 40% pro football focus, 40% the SIS blown block percentage, and 20% from ESPN's past block win rate. The Patriots are actually 11th in that composite pass protection ranking through two weeks, which is excellent. I can't tell you how many times they've been 30th to 32nd on that list for the past couple of years. You also got to be mindful of Garrett Bradbury versus Cam Hayward.

Starting point is 00:21:34 You've got to be mindful of Jared Wilson against Cam Hayward. Drake May has to get rid of the football quickly because the Steelers will bring the pressure. All right. Beating the Steelers might call for the pads to go a little old school. We'll explain that next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to by Square. Your favorite neighborhood spots run on Square.

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Starting point is 00:22:50 Go support your favorite neighborhood spot. You'll be happy you did. Square. See you in the neighborhood. neighborhood. All right, so let's look at a few other things about this game that I want to point out before I give you my prediction. I wonder if the Patriots will utilize their wide receivers more.

Starting point is 00:23:09 Against Miami, New England wide receivers had seven catches for 64 yards. They did have two touchdowns, but they were not thrown at an awful lot. We saw throws to the tight ends, especially early. We saw throws to the running backs. Henderson and Ramandre had his big day. I actually expect the Patriots to once again have a heavy emphasis on the running backs and tight ends in the passing game. Because if you watch the Seattle versus Pittsburgh game last week, a couple of things stood out to me. And this is where I say the Patriots might go a little old school.

Starting point is 00:23:42 Seattle had a lot of success in the eye formation. That's right. It's 2025, but I'm talking eye formation, baby. They had a lot of success against this Steelers defense in the eye formation. And one thing I'm looking at, obviously the Patriots don't have a fullback on their roster. But if you noticed a few times last week, they snuck Hunter Henry into the back field as almost that, you know, lead back that fullback. And I just have to wonder if we're going to see a little bit more of that. Hunter Henry lined up as a fullback against this Pittsburgh defense because of the issues the Steelers defense had against the I formation.

Starting point is 00:24:19 I would also anticipate the Patriots to have some of that shotgun split. back when you have those two backs, one on each side of Drake May, I would expect some of that gun split back action. And another thing I would look for is Mack Hollins. If you noticed, Josh McDaniels had a number of plays against the Dolphins defense where Mack Hollins kind of snuck in, like in line, and he was, I would say, for all intents and purposes, another offensive lineman, an extra tight end. And I think you'll see some of that as well.

Starting point is 00:24:51 I think you'll see some of what we saw, if not a lot of what we saw against Miami, thrown into this game against Pittsburgh. So don't be surprised if you see some eye formation. I would not be surprised if we see some Hunter Henry in the backfield. Another thing, the Patriots have to take advantage of the Pittsburgh linebackers. Sound familiar? We know the Patriots linebackers have not been good. The Steelers linebackers have some issues as well.

Starting point is 00:25:16 The Steelers love to utilize Patrick Queen and Nick Erbig. with blitzes. They like to move queen all the round. But here's the thing. Those guys tend to get a little over aggressive. And I do think there will be opportunities in the middle of the football field against this Steelers defense. Because they're so aggressive, because they blitz so much, because they play man,

Starting point is 00:25:36 I see some in-breaking routes, slants, all that kind of stuff. Down the scene to the tight ends, you mix your running backs into your offense as well in the passing game, try to get them lined up against these linebackers. because Pittsburgh, if they don't play as much man as they've played, they're going to play a good amount of man. And that will open the door because the Steelers are sixth. They play the sixth most man coverage defense in football through the first two weeks. That goes back to what we were talking about last segment,

Starting point is 00:26:08 the tricky part of defending Drake May on Sunday. How will the Steelers do it? They're sixth in man coverage. And this is an opportunity for Josh McKeown. Daniels to get the matchups that he wants. If the Steelers are going to play heavy man coverage, get ready for Trayvion Henderson and Ramandre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. Get ready for McDaniels to take advantage of that man coverage.

Starting point is 00:26:35 Get those running backs lined up against the Steelers linebackers. And I would not be surprised if we see one of or both Stevenson and Henderson with four or five catches in this game. This could be a game where Trayvion Henderson breaks out a couple of big receptions. This could be the game. If they get the right look and they get Henderson in that game in the personnel package and he's lined up against one of those linebackers, this could be the game. This could be the game that we see some of that.

Starting point is 00:27:06 We've seen a little bit of it with Henderson. We could see more of it on Sunday. So a lot of man coverage from Pittsburgh usually if they do what they do, McDaniels, I think, is going to be ready utilizing those backs. in the passing game. Defensively, another thing I'm wondering is whether or not the defensive line can keep winning. And they won a lot in the fourth quarter against Miami. Can they win early?

Starting point is 00:27:30 Can they get off to a faster start? Harold Landry, Caleb-Chace on, as I said earlier during the episode, they've been limited the past couple of days. Are they healthy? We'll see. But I will tell you, Seattle had success against the Pittsburgh offensive line with their interior defensive line. Leonard Williams,

Starting point is 00:27:50 Byron Murphy Jr. Those guys had an impact, especially Murphy Jr. And I think there's going to be some opportunity for Christian Barmore and Milton Williams to do some damage against that interior offensive line of the Steelers.

Starting point is 00:28:06 Now, the Steelers have given up the 10th lowest pressure rate, but don't get it twisted. A decent portion of that is because Rogers gets the ball out quickly. And he's also running around lot. He likes to evade the pressure. He don't want to get hit. So some of those, some of those numbers could be slanted a little bit towards the offensive line because if you're getting rid of the football and just, you know, Rogers is doing that. That's going to make your pressure

Starting point is 00:28:32 numbers look a little bit better. Now, they are 25th in time to throw at 2.85 seconds. So I think the defensive line clog the run and get some pressure and you're going to make Aaron Rogers a little bit Skittish in that pocket. So defensive line, win and win early. All right, here's my prediction. I was wrong week one. I was right week two. Hopefully I'm right in week three because I've got the Patriots beating the Steelers.

Starting point is 00:29:01 I've got Pat's 27, Steelers 23. Patriots run the ball. Make sure you have less penalties. Don't give up free yards. You're not good enough to do that. And have better special teams. those three things will also help you, right? Run the ball.

Starting point is 00:29:18 We talked about it a lot earlier, but less penalties and straighten out your special teams. Pat's 27, Steelers 23. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe, help a brother out, trying to get the 7,000 subscribers. Thank you for making us your first listen for being in every day. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio.

Starting point is 00:29:41 And for your second listen, get a double dose of the lockdown. NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Rowland and Tony Wiggins find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a fantastic day. Have a great weekend. We will see you for the live post game on Sunday following Patriot Steelers. And hopefully we're talking about back-to-back wins for the first time since 2022.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Dilemma: Drake Maye Poses Challenges For Steelers | Can Pats Defense Awake?

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