Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Draft Shocker: Could Patriots Prioritize Surprise Position Early?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The closer we get to the draft, the more I think taking a guard earlier than we might have expected is on the table. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles. On today's episode, the Pats are reportedly interested in one of the top tight ends in this year's draft.

Starting point is 00:00:33 In the second segment, a Dane Bruegler quote that makes me feel like the Pats are most likely just fine with sticking and picking in the first round. But first, the Pats could surprise us all next week. Now, before we get into that, special note, the Lockdown NFL mock draft is out. You can check it out at Lockdown NFL. You can check it out at Lockdown NFL draft. And you can check it out at the Lockdown NFL six pack. Now, the way the board fell, we had a very, very tough. decision at number 31.

Starting point is 00:01:06 Find out who I picked and others picked at the lockdown NFL mock draft. Check it out right after you finish watching, listening to this episode of Lockdown Patriots. You know, I did not entertain drafting an offensive guard at number 31 until recently. And now I'm wondering whether or not this Patriots regime is about to take a page from the Bill Belichick. book. Now, why am I starting to wonder that? It all started with Peter Schrager from ESPN, his first mock draft. At number 31, he had the Patriots picking Keelon Rutledge, a guard from Georgia Tech.

Starting point is 00:01:47 Then Tony Pauline reported that the Patriots were scheduled to host Oregon Interior Offensive Lyman and Manuel Preggon for a top 30 visit. And then Tony Pauline also reported that the Patriots like Texas A&M offensive linemen, Chase Basantis, another interior lineman, a guard, and tried to schedule him for a 30 visit, but were unable to do so due to time constraints on Basantas's end. So Peter Schrager comes out mock draft, Keelan Rutledge, Georgia Tech Guard at number 31. Tony Pauline then reports that the Patriots scheduled a top 30 visit with Emmanuel Pregnon. And then Pauline says the Patriots wanted to schedule a visit with Chase Basantis, another guard,

Starting point is 00:02:36 but they were unable to do so because Basantis could not make it work within his schedule. I mean, we're talking about a lot of homework by the Patriots on guards. And we're not just talking about any guard. We're talking about a lot of homework on guards projected to go in the top 50. Keelan Rutledge projected to be a top 50 or so pick. Emmanuel Pregnan, he is projected to be a top 50 pick. Chase Passantis, many people think he could go in the first round. So all of a sudden there's this smoke surrounding the interior offensive line.

Starting point is 00:03:12 And then we go back to what Elliot Wolfe said earlier this week at his press conference. He talked about this draft being strong on the offensive and defensive lines. So now I start to wonder, could this actually happen? The value of an offensive guard over the last few years in the NFL, it has changed. It has grown exponentially. You know, Emery Hunt, who's one of the best draft Knicks out there, he just does so much work pre-draft. Emery Hunt was recently on the Ross Tucker podcast, and he said, quote, Big Tackle Propaganda fooled people.

Starting point is 00:03:54 If you don't have elite guards in center play, you don't have a running. game. You don't have a pocket. You don't have offense, unquote. And when you look at how much elite guards are being paid in the NFL at this point, they're getting paid a decent amount of money. Spotrack. You go to the average annual value at the guard position. The top paid guard is Tyler Smith in Dallas. He's making $24 million a year. Trey Smith in Kansas City, $23.5. Landon Dickerson in Philly, $21 million. Chris Lindstrom in Atlanta, $20. $20.5 million. Robert Hunt, $20 million in Carolina. Quentin Nelson, $20 million in Indianapolis, Aaron Banks in Green Bay, $19.25 million. Then you get to Mike Owenu, $19 million a year with the deal

Starting point is 00:04:45 he signed back in the 2024 offseason. And you compare the top paid guard in the NFL. Again, it's Tyler Smith at $24 million. You compare that contract to the top paid. left tackle in football, who's Roshan Slater out there with the LA Chargers, he's making 28.5 million a year. So less than $5 million on the average annual value, the average pay per year, less than $5 million is the difference between the top left tackle and the top guard in football. And that would not have been the case going back a few years ago. Guards are getting paid more money. the NFL is putting more emphasis on that position.

Starting point is 00:05:28 We've talked about rushing the quarterback from the inside, rushing him from the middle, creates all sorts of problems when you put that pass rush straight up the middle. Because if you're rushing from the edges, if you're rushing for the left side, the right side, quarterback can kind of get out of that easier. If you're flushing him out of the pocket and you're forcing the quarterback towards the ends

Starting point is 00:05:51 and the defensive backs and even the linebackers, depending on who you have on the second level, that becomes a big time problem. So guards are getting paid more money. Teams are drafting guards more and more now in the first round. And when you look at this specific draft, this specific draft could be a perfect storm to do something unexpected. Why do I say that? Well, Peter Schrager posted that he received a text from a respected NFL GM on whether a team

Starting point is 00:06:23 can really take a safety, in this case Caleb Downs, in the top five in 2026. The GM text Peter Schrager back, quote, throw positional value out this year, unquote. So when you look at positions like safety, off ball linebacker, and you look at interior offensive line, some of those positions, they've been suppressed in the past. In a draft like this, especially now that the guards are starting to earn. more money. They're starting to get drafted in the first round. In this specific draft, as that NFL GM said, throw out positional value, throw it out the window. So drafting a guard in the first round would be looked upon differently over the past couple of years, but especially

Starting point is 00:07:12 this year. Now, why would it be possible the Patriots would make this move? Why is it at least on the table because I do think it's on the table. Well, you look at the guard position with the current roster. Michael Wenu is walking into the final year of his contract. Now, would you have to move Michael Wenu if you picked a guard on day one at number 31? Would you move a Wenu if you selected a guard day two in either round two or round three? I think that would be the likelihood. But even if you don't move a Wenu, you're looking at this saying he's walking into the final

Starting point is 00:07:49 year of his contract. So, you know, if you don't believe Morgan Moses is going to make it through 2026 or you believe this is going to end up being Moses's last year, it's a similar situation with Michael Wenu. Now, tackle is still more valuable than guard, but the scenario, the situation is pretty similar. Morgan Moses could be looking at his final season of his NFL career because he's 35. He's had a deal with a bunch of injuries. And credit to him, he's played through those injuries. Michael Wenu could be looking at his last year with the Patriots because of his contractual status. Same kind of situation. And at left guard, you've got Elijah Vera Tucker, which we've talked about. I love the signing, but you can't be disingenuous. You can't overlook the injury history.

Starting point is 00:08:34 And maybe the Patriots look at Ben Brown and say, we think he's more center than he is guard. So now, all of a sudden, you've got a Wenou last year of his deal. Elijah Vera Tucker with the injury history. If you look at Ben Brown and you think he's primarily the backup to Jared Wilson, well, now you start to see why guard could make sense, even at 31, or in the second round, or in the third round. Now, I don't think it's going to happen. And for me, of course, we don't know how the board is going to fall, but I would lean against picking a guard at 31. I still think you have similar grades on a lot of these players. I don't think there's this all-world guard sitting there at 31

Starting point is 00:09:21 that should make you overlook some other positions. You have more urgent needs. I mean, tomorrow you could start with that offensive line that is currently rostered right now. You could start with Elijah Verit Tucker at left guard, Michael Wendho at right guard. And not only could you start there, as long as Elijah Verit Tucker's healthy,

Starting point is 00:09:42 you'd actually feel pretty good at Guard on day one. So I just think you've got a lot of similar grades. You've got more urgent needs. You've got more urgent needs at more premier positions, even though Guard is growing within the game. And when I look at the guards, I think you've got some depth in this draft where you could find a good guard prospect late day two or day three.

Starting point is 00:10:06 So I would not make that pick at 31. I would not pick a guard. Again, depending on how the board falls, I would find that very unlikely. I would be against that idea unless there's absolutely nothing left, which I find hard to believe. And I don't think it's going to happen. But I also don't think that we should just completely write it off.

Starting point is 00:10:28 I think it's a possibility, slight possibility, but a possibility nonetheless. A top draft expert said something that set off my alarm bells. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. The NFL draft is here where preparation meets opportunity and every decision matters. It's all about being ready when your moment arrives and that same mindset applies off to feel too. That's where Rougiet comes in.

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Starting point is 00:11:38 That's r u g, IET dot com slash lockdown NFL for 15. percent off. Rougeette, performance medicine for men. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Check out the everyday club, by the way. Add free episodes, access to a group chat with other listeners of this show. Tap the link in the show notes to find out more or go to lockdownpatriots. Supercast.com.

Starting point is 00:12:08 Don't forget also as you watch us on YouTube to hit that thumbs up, like this podcast. Don't forget to throw a comment in. I want your feelings on drafting a garbassie. early in this draft, whether it's at 31, second round, are you against that idea? Do you fear that idea? I want your thoughts. So don't forget to like. Don't forget to comment. And don't forget to subscribe. The goal remains 10,000 subscribers. Appreciate every single one of you. All right. So the Patriots sitting at number 31 in this year's draft could end up being less quote unquote damaging than sitting at number 31 in some prior drafts. Greg CoSell on the

Starting point is 00:12:47 Ross Tucker podcast recently said there's usually 15 to 18 first round graded players in a given draft. But this year, when you look at a combination of factors, the lack of blue chip prospects, the positional value conversation that we just talked about in the last segment, and the flavors at certain positions that we've talked about in the past, Daniel Jeremiah is saying defensive end, wide receiver, this is a flavor draft. There are different types of guys at those positions that. fit differently for each team you look at. So because you've got the lack of blue chippers, because you've got the,

Starting point is 00:13:24 I would say, who cares about positional value approach this year, and because you have flavors at certain positions, that means this draft is pretty much all over the freaking map, all over the map. And so first round graded players. Again, Greg Kosell said usually there's like 15 to 18 first round grades year and year out. Well, this year, Rob Rang of Fox Sports, he has 12 players with a first round grade. Dane Bruegler of the Athletic has 14 players with a first round grade. Matt Miller of ESPN has 11 players with a first round grade. And Nick Merriam of SI has only nine players with a first round

Starting point is 00:14:10 grade. So ultimately, the lack of first round grades will lead us to similar values. in the first round. And Dame Bruegler said on Mina Kimes' podcast this week, quote, once you get to like, say, pick 17, like 17 to 40, I just don't think there's much of a difference at that point between these guys. So Dame Bruegler, who puts together the beast year in and year out, one of the best in the business says there's not much difference between a guy who you can get at pick 17 and a guy you can get at pick 40.

Starting point is 00:14:45 So if there is, if there is little difference between pick 17 and 40, and you are truly focused if you're the Patriots on the best player available, then there's not much urgency to move up. If you're not targeting a specific position, if you look at these guys and you say 17 to 40, same dude, then are you really going to give up draft capital? are you really going to give up future assets to move up from, say, 31 to 25? I don't think so. If you feel, again, the premise is if you agree with Dame Bruegler's evaluation, if you think you could get the same player at 31, then you can get at 17. That means you think you can get the same player at 31 that you could get at 25 or 20 or 28. So the idea of moving up seems much less likely if you are looking at this draft the same way Bruegler is looking at this draft.

Starting point is 00:15:48 If it's just a clump of dude 17 to 40, if they're not tiered. You know, again, the usual draft 15 to 18 first round grades, but then you might have five guys to eight guys who are at another tier. And then you get to another tier. You know, some of years, I don't know, you might say, well, picks 25 to 40, not much different. Picks 30 to 50, not much different. 17 to 40 means the Patriots, they're right there. They're stuck in that range. And there's not much difference between being at the bottom of that range or the top of that range,

Starting point is 00:16:26 again, unless you are targeting a specific position, which I don't know if the Patriots are going to. if you're targeting a certain position and let's say, for example, you care about drafting a tackle, then yeah, moving up would make sense because if you're targeting a tackle and you think, man, Maxi Hennichor, Blake Miller, Caleb Lomu, Kaden Proctor, those guys are all going to be gone between the 17 and, let's say, pick 28 window. then yeah, you might want to move up. But if it doesn't matter to you, then sitting there sticking and picking

Starting point is 00:17:05 really would make the most sense. I would also wonder, you know, if certain teams hold on to positional value, then some interesting names could end up falling. You know, if everybody agrees with that respected GM, that text, Peter Schrager, you know, throw positional value out the window, if everybody agrees with that,

Starting point is 00:17:29 then there's going to be a chaotic draft. But you still have some people, I'm sure, in the league who are old school. You still have people. I saw Mike Tannenbaum on ESPN talking about positional value this week and how he values other positions much more higher than other positions, right? So it really depends on which team you're talking about and how evolved they are when it comes to positional value with this draft in particular.

Starting point is 00:17:56 but if there are a few teams who still believe they're stubborn, they're holding on to the idea of positional value, then that means some guys who are actually better players who might be, let's say, graded as a first round player, they might slip because they have a first round grade, but they're a safety. I'll give you an example. Does Emmanuel McNeil Warren fall in this draft?

Starting point is 00:18:23 He could. many would tell you that McNeil Warren is a top 20 player in this draft, but he's a safety. So if you already have a safety or safety's on your roster and you're not really interested in that position, or if you actually still care about positional value no matter what other people are saying, no matter how this draft lays out, then somebody like Emmanuel McNeil Warren could fall. And he could fall all the way down to 28, 29, 30, 31. same position, same idea, Dylan Thineman. You know, does he end up falling further than we think?

Starting point is 00:19:00 Because there are some stubborn GMs, some stubborn personnel people who say, I'm not going to draft Dylan Thineman in the top 15 and the top 20 because he's a safety. I mean, if Caleb Downs falls, then Dylan Thineman falls, most likely. Then McNeil Warren probably falls. Interior defensive line, same kind of thing. You don't have a premier pass rushing interior defensive lineman that is going to get drafted in this first round or really in this draft.

Starting point is 00:19:31 You know, you look at somebody like Kaden McDonald from Ohio State, he is more of a run stuffing interior defensive lineman. So, you know, Katie McDonald, some of these interior defensive linemen, they're probably going to fall to the end of the first round beginning of the second round, even though you could argue that Kada McDonald could be one of the better football players in this draft, but he could fall given positional value, given the chaos of all of this, the unpredictability.

Starting point is 00:19:58 It opens the door for teams. If you're going by that 17 to 40 comment by Dame Bruegler, it opens the door for teams in that 41 to 60 range to try to trade up into the late first round, which of course would help the Patriots. If the Patriots are open to moving out of the first round, then if you're a team that's 41 to 60, And you want a second bite at the apple and you want to try to move up and get one of those players in that tier. And let's say you're the Arizona Cardinals, for example, you already got, you know, a top five pick. And you're sitting at, you know, what is it, 34, 35. So you're still in that top 40, but you feel there might be a little bit of a difference.

Starting point is 00:20:39 Maybe you don't. Maybe you're willing to just stick and pick. What if you're a team outside that top 40, though? What if you're a team that that picked in the first, you know, 10 to 15 picks, but you're just outside that that top 40, that 17 to 40 mark, then you might look at the Patriots and say, hey, do you want to move that 31st pick? So it could open the door to movement from teams in that 41 to 60 range trying to crack that 17 to 40 range. And also if there's a little difference, if there's little difference between the 17th player and the 40th player, I feel like the better personnel departments will be able to split those hairs.

Starting point is 00:21:18 they'll be able to find those specific fits. They'll be able to grab that value pick. And I trust Mike Rabel and this Patriots front office that they can figure those types of things out and they can split those hairs. Coming up, the pads reportedly might not wait long to pick a tight end. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:22:58 So tight end wide receiver, two needs heading into this draft for the Patriots. We all understand that. And the pads, they could be interested in a guy who could classify as maybe both receiver in tight end. John Lyons from WEEI, New England Sports Football Journal. He reported that the Patriots, he heard from a source that the Patriots like Vanderbilt, tight end, Eli Stowers. Now, Stowers, we haven't talked much about him, so let's get into it. He has, for the most part, a second round grade. Many people think he'll go in the second round. Many people think he'll go in the top half of the second round. He's six, three and a half,

Starting point is 00:23:39 242 pounds. He was listed by the athletic in that freak athletes column that's right. And I think it's Bruce Feldman who writes that. And it makes a lot of sense because when you look at testing, Eli Stowers, tested through the roof. His relative athletic score was 9.42, which places him 85th out of 1,456 tight ends that did testing since 1987. Eli Stowers, again, at 6.3.5, 242 ran a 45-140. His vertical was ridiculous. His vertical leap, 45-5-inch vertical.

Starting point is 00:24:16 His broad jump was outrageous, 11-foot. three inch broad jump. Now vertical broad jump, we've talked about it. That shows an individual's explosiveness. This dude is explosive. At his size, more than 240 pounds, a 45.5 inch vert and a broad jump at 11 foot three inches, those are crazy numbers. Now, the biggest question about Stowers is whether or not he's a tight end or a wide receiver.

Starting point is 00:24:45 Is he a wide receiver in a tight end's box? is he a wide receiver masquerading as a tight end? And the question is a worthwhile one because Dane Brugler, to go back to him, he posted in this year's beast that Eli Stowers at Vanderbilt, he ran 70.7% of his snaps as a detached tight end this year. Over 70% of his snaps as a detached tight end. You can pretty much call that a wide receiver. not in line a lot, right?

Starting point is 00:25:21 So what are the pros? What are the cons for Stowers? The pros? Speed. We talk about his athleticism. We talk about his relative athletic score. We talk about playing detached from the offensive line, being that detached tight end. That means he's somebody that can run down the seam and he can separate with that speed.

Starting point is 00:25:43 He also brings you yards after the catch, which is something that I think the Patriots need in this offense. I mean, every offense needs it, but especially the Patriots. It's not like they have a ton of dudes that have the great wiggle that could bring you the yards after the catch. The drop rate for Stowers was only 3.9 percent, so pretty sure hands. And the cool thing is as Stowers, he's actually a former quarterback. So when you think about quarterbacks, you think about football IQ, football intelligence, and you think about the Josh McDaniels offense and how it could be tough on some young guys. I'm not telling you Eli Stowers could walk out of the field and just like that,

Starting point is 00:26:23 understand Josh McDaniel's offense. But I do think his background as a quarterback a la Jacoby Myers, a la Julian Edelman. We've seen guys with that type of background that can transition to this offense better. And that transition can be done easier because of their football IQ, because of their understanding and how they view the game as a former quarterback. Stowers also would absolutely, hands down, be a culture fit. In The Beast, Dame Brugler wrote that NFL scouts say that Stowers logs, quote, unquote, countless hours at the facility and wants to be coached, quote, harder than the rest of the team, unquote. He was a team captain at Vanderbilt.

Starting point is 00:27:07 This is somebody who gets it. He works his tail off, wants to coach hard, has proven to be a leader of men at the collegiate level. So that sounds like a Mike Vrable type football player. So what are the cons? The play strength. He's not the strongest dude in the world. He's 6.3.5, 242, but he doesn't play like your prototypical tight end, right? He's not a consistent blocker.

Starting point is 00:27:32 He can block every once in a while, but he's not a consistent guy that you count on as of right now. So that play strength is a question. In the play strength, when you play against safeties and linebackers and they want to jar you at the line of scrimmage, they want to jar you, you know, as early as they can to bother you, get you off your route and stuff. The lack of consistent play strength that could hurt Stowers a little bit. And obviously, if you want to run the football, not being a consistent blocker, we know McDaniel's offense, that could also hurt him a little bit.

Starting point is 00:28:05 Right now, you'd say he's unlikely a three-down player at tight end because he's not going to line up for the most part in line. He's not going to be that type of road grading tight end if you need him to be. He's not that type of dude. But I think he would be a fine pick in round two. If you could get Eli Stowers at 63, he's a weapon. He's a weapon for your offense. He might not be your quintessential tight end, your three down tight end.

Starting point is 00:28:32 But he's a guy that I think Josh McDaniels could use. I think he would be somebody to help Drake May again. Seams yards after the catch, move him around a lot. Supreme Athleticism, some explosivity to the offense. I wouldn't,

Starting point is 00:28:47 I wouldn't mind it. I would not mind that pick. So we'll see. We'll see if the Patriots are that much into Eli Stowers to use a second round pick on him. All right, that wraps up this edition

Starting point is 00:29:01 of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everyday. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button And if you never miss an episode, the everydayer club is built for you.

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Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Draft Shocker: Could Patriots Prioritize Surprise Position Early?

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