Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Drama: Drake Maye Eyes AFC East Title—Can Patriots End Josh Allen’s Reign?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pats have what it takes to beat the bills for the second time this season and win the AFC East on Sunday. And this deep dive preview will tell you how they can do it. This is Locked on Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick.

Starting point is 00:00:30 Cattles, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the past for the past 16 years. Also, the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget, following Bill's Patriots on Sunday, we will go live on YouTube, live post game on Sunday following this football game. On today's episode, though, Josh Allen is having an MVP-type season, but there is an approach that Pats can take to slow him and the Bill's offense down. Also, we'll explain the dilemma the Bill's defense faces against Drake May after their loss

Starting point is 00:01:13 earlier in the season. But first, Sunday is the quintessential big game we have been waiting for for years. This is the biggest game since Tom Brady was a New England Patriot. You can go back to 2021 and talk about the playoff game, but I was not necessarily believing in that football team. They were not necessarily strong at the end of the season. This game, this game is the biggest game since Tom Brady walked off the field at Gillette against Mike Vrable's Tennessee Titans five, six years ago.

Starting point is 00:01:49 This is the biggest game we have seen since Brady. Meanwhile, Mike Vrable, if you don't know, how good he's been post-bye. I will tell you, as a head coach, following a buy, Mike Vrable is 6 and 0. He's perfect. And Alex Barth of 985 listed all six games.

Starting point is 00:02:10 I will just take you to one game. 2020. In October of 2020, Mike Vrable and the Tennessee Titans played against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. And in that game, game. After the buy, Mike Vrable's Titans beat the bills 42 to 16. And when you look at Mike Vrable post-bye being 6-0, he's not only perfect. His teams have also won convincingly for the

Starting point is 00:02:44 most part, an average margin of victory of 16 points over those six games. This is a huge one on Sunday. We are talking about the AFC East. The Patriots can win the division with a win on Sunday. We're talking about the Patriots trying to prove that week five was not a fluke. We're talking about the Buffalo Bills trying to avenge that week five loss on national television on that Sunday night and prove to the world that the AFC East still runs through Buffalo. This is also the first time that we will see Drake May and Josh McDaniels, that tag team,

Starting point is 00:03:22 so to speak. This will be the first time we see these two. two guys against a team for the second time in a season. It's the first time that Drake May and Josh McDaniels have worked together against the team for the second time in a year. And so that begs the question, what kind of lessons did Drake May and Josh McDaniels learn from week five? What kind of changes will they deploy on Sunday because of what happened in week

Starting point is 00:03:50 five? What kind of adjustments will the Buffalo Bills make against Drake May in this offense? causing the offense to re-adjust to what Buffalo does. A fascinating matchup, even more fascinating because it's the second time around. Defensively, can you improve against Josh Allen? Now, Josh Allen was not spectacular week five, but he was still good. He completed 71% of his passes, 253 yards, which is the fourth highest yardage mark of his 2025 passing. Two touchdowns, one interception, finished with a passer rating of 103.3. So Josh

Starting point is 00:04:31 Allen was not bad week five. He just was not MVP caliber Josh Allen. Can you be even better against him the second time around at Gillette on Sunday? And all year long we've been talking about week 15, week 16, week 15, week 16, week 15, week 16, after the buy week, you host Buffalo, then you go on the road against Baltimore. Well, with the way Baltimore has played, the way that Lamar Jackson has looked, which has been not healthy, this could be, and most likely is, your last quote unquote, big test of the regular season. You're going to play against the Jets Week 17 in New York, really New Jersey.

Starting point is 00:05:15 Are you afraid of that game? Of course you're not afraid of that game. nobody would say that game's a big test. Then you finish the year in January at home against the Miami Dolphins. Now, the Dolphins have been playing better. Credit to Mike McDaniel, the team did not completely quit on him. They're still in the playoff hunt, as they say. But are you really looking at week 18 against Miami,

Starting point is 00:05:39 especially if the Patriots are already in the playoffs, already won the division, already guaranteed their seating? Do you really look at week 18 and say, ooh, this is a big one. Now, maybe it does end up being a big one because of the ramifications of the postseason, but it would not be a big test, so to speak. You already beat Miami in Miami and Tua is not Josh Allen. So Sunday could be the last big test for this Patriots team because of what's going on in Baltimore. Baltimore, that's going to be less pomp and circumstance. I know they flexed the game. I know it will be Sunday night, but the Ravens,

Starting point is 00:06:18 are struggling. And just to add a little bit extra to this game on Sunday, we could have some weather. It's no doubt going to be cold. I mean, we are talking about the middle of December in Massachusetts. It's going to be cold. But we might have some snow. We might have some snow in store for Sunday. This matchup has everything, man.

Starting point is 00:06:40 It's got two quarterbacks playing MVP-level football. It's got two teams that are going to. very likely make the playoffs unless something absolutely crazy happens. It is for the division. The Patriots can end the reign of the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. And it's got the bills plenty motivated to prove that week five, oh, you beat us in our house.

Starting point is 00:07:06 Now we're going to get some of that back by beating you in your house. We're not going to let you celebrate a division win, a division championship while we are here. in Foxborough at Gillette Stadium. It is not happening on our time. It's not happening on our watch. This game has everything you want a game to have in the regular season. And I am Pete Carroll pumped and jacked.

Starting point is 00:07:32 I have not been as excited for a regular season game like this. I have not been as excited for a Patriots game like this one coming up on Sunday in a very long time. I cannot wait until they kick it off. All right, coming up, we'll tell you why the Bill's defense is stuck between a rock and a hard place against Drake May. That's next as we continue with today's Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, guys, it's 2025, almost 2026. In those days of waiting for something to become a full-blown emergency before you see a doctor, yeah, they're over. No more walking it off for six months, no more pretending that weird shoulder stiffness.

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Starting point is 00:10:51 I want your predictions for Sunday. Who wins, what's the score, and why, and don't forget to subscribe. I expect the bills to score points on Sunday. Josh Allen is too good. I would not bank on three turnovers like what happened back in week five, which means the Patriots might have to get into a little bit of a firefight here on Sunday. How can they put points up on the board? How can they consistently attack this Buffalo Bill's defense? Number one, the Patriots need to run the football consistently well.

Starting point is 00:11:23 I know you've heard me talk about this and sometimes it's like a broken record, but it doesn't make it change. Doesn't make it different. The Patriots need to run the ball. I've been talking about all year long, the ability to make this an offense that can beat you in different ways. You cannot be one-dimensional as you get into December and January. I've said it a million times. Well, guess what? We are now officially in December. You ran the ball pretty well against the Giants outside of the third quarter.

Starting point is 00:11:54 You've got to be able to run the ball. Colder weather, maybe some snow, run the football. Now, the question is, is Buffalo's run defense a weakness or not? For the first eight or nine weeks, it was absolutely yes. to that question. However, even though you look at 20th and yards, 29th in yards per carry, giving up the second most 10-plus yard runs, 51 explosive runs given up by this defense, 32nd and yards after contact per attempt at over four yards after contact per attempt. Joe Marino said this on the crossover episode. And when you watch the team, Shaq Thompson being out

Starting point is 00:12:38 there. Matt Milano being out there. Matt Milano missed week five. Jordan Poyer playing safety. Those three things have shifted things somewhat with their run defense in Buffalo and their run defense has been no doubt better the past few weeks. Now, I would also say, we always try to stay objective and not be disingenuous here and paint a picture that's not as accurate as we can paint it. Competition does matter. And When you look at the three teams that Buffalo faced leading into this game on Sunday, the Houston Texans, their success rate on the ground is 31st in the league. Pittsburgh's 11th.

Starting point is 00:13:22 So good run offense with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati right in the middle of the pack at 16. And watching the Bengals Buffalo Bills game from last weekend, I will tell you, I did not think Cincinnati committed enough to the run game. Chase Brown only had 12 carries. I thought they should have run the ball more than they did. Here's the problem. You look at success rate and you say, well, maybe the Buffalo Bill's run defense has been better,

Starting point is 00:13:48 but maybe it's been much better because of the level of competition. The problem is, as we've talked about, the Patriots run game has not been good. They're 29th in success rate. You've got to be able to run the ball and play keep away from Josh Allen. Number two, Drake May should have plenty of time. in the pocket on Sunday. The bill's pass rush is abominable. They have arguably been the worst pass rush in the NFL over the past month or so.

Starting point is 00:14:18 They are 27th in pass rush win rate, not a single pass rusher, either on the interior of the defensive line or at defensive end. Not a single pass rusher is in the top 20 for the Buffalo Bills in that metric, the pass rush win rate. Joey Bosa, their best pass rusher, continues to be limited at practice. The bills are 30th in time to pressure. So even when they get pressure, they take forever and they don't blitz a lot. 23rd in blitz rate.

Starting point is 00:14:49 Interestingly enough, you go back to week five, they had the 11th highest blitz rate for the week back in week five against this Patriots offense. They blitz 27.8% of the time against Drake May. You wonder, will the Buffalo bills, blitz as much on Sunday. Evan Lazzar at Patriots.com wrote this week, the bills blitzed more in the final two quarters. In the first half, Buffalo only blitzed Drake May twice on 20 dropbacks, but the bills increased their blitz rate to 50% in the second half. You wonder how that went? Well, we know. Drake May was much better in the second half than he was in the first half.

Starting point is 00:15:30 He went six of seven for 92 passing yards when the bills blitzed him, according to Evan Lazzar. So this is the rock and the hard place where the Buffalo Bills sit between. You can't get pass rush without blitzing, but when you blitzed Drake May in week five, he ate you alive. Are you going to blitz as much Sunday? It's going to be a compelling part of this game to watch. And of course, if you do blitz Drake May, he can be. you with his legs, whether extending plays or running with the football. Buffalo, of course, can have a spy if they want, but Buffalo had a tough time stopping

Starting point is 00:16:11 Drake May in the second half back in week five by blitzing him. So what do they do? Their cornerbacks are not very good. Christian Benford is good. Christian Benford, however, on Thursday showed up on the injury report limited with a toe. When a guy pops up on the report on a Thursday, that means he heard it in practice. I don't know if Christian Benford is going to be out there on Sunday. If Christian Benford is not out there on Sunday, the bill's secondary has even more of an issue. So it begs the question, can the Patriots wide receivers win their matchups on Sunday? I would be absolutely attacking Trudevius White.

Starting point is 00:16:50 I would be absolutely attacking Cam Lewis. I thought both guys played poorly against Cincinnati. And when you look at the late down offense, that's where the. the Patriots can truly hurt the Buffalo Bills. When you look at the rankings of quarterbacks in the NFL on late downs with a minimum of 100 snaps, Drake May on late downs is number one in past EPA and completion rate at 68.14%. He is second, an EPA and success rate. He is tied for third most touchdowns on late downs with eight. And when you look at Drake May and his success on these late downs,

Starting point is 00:17:29 and you look at what the Buffalo bills do defensively on late downs. No, Bueno for Buffalo. Buffalo is 23rd in the NFL on third down. They're 24th in the NFL on fourth down. Drake May, the Patriots offense, very good on third and fourth. The bills, not good on third and fourth. Obviously, Buffalo is going to have to do everything they can with every fiber of their being to make first and second down very difficult on Drake May.

Starting point is 00:17:59 Because if it's third and medium, third and short, even third and long, but less than like 10 plus yards, Drake May could eat. He could eat on Sunday against these cornerbacks. You wonder if the Patriots will try their hardest against Defon Diggs away from Christian Benford? I also think the Patriots could try to attack this defense with their tight ends and the running backs in the passing game. But there is going to be, there is going to be some opportunity for this offense. there's going to be opportunity for Drake May to attack. And I would not be shocked, especially if Christian Benford is out or severely limited.

Starting point is 00:18:39 I would not be surprised whatsoever if we see some empty backfield shotgun, spread them out formation from Josh McDaniels, and he'll just hunt these matchups. But third and fourth down going to be critical, always critical, but especially this matchup, this specific matchup with the strengths and the weaknesses offensively versus Buffalo's defense, Buffalo could have a hard time getting off the field on Sunday. And if that's the case, that means the Patriots are putting up some points. One word, one word should dominate Sunday's defensive game plan. That word and more next. This is Lockdown Patriots,

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Starting point is 00:20:37 We'll be with you, hopefully talking about an AFC East championship. Not much has changed since the Sunday night football matchup, if you look at this Bill's offense. I mean, you look defensively, Matt Milano back, Jordan Poyer at safety, Shaq Thompson on the team. But offensively, this Buffalo offense is pretty much what it was. is going back to that Sunday night football matchup. James Cook is the engine. I said this before the matchup. I pounded this into submission. James Cook is the engine of this offense. If James

Starting point is 00:21:09 Cook is going, it's very, very difficult to slow down this machine. Offensively, a bunch of metrics will tell you this is one of the best offenses in football, and it's not as if the Buffalo bills have a ton of great wide receivers. So what does that tell you? Great quarterback play and James Cook running the football. Josh Allen has been awesome with the limitations at wide receiver. Keon Coleman has not been good. Brandon Cooks is at an advanced age for an NFL wide receiver. And we'll talk about Khalil Shakur a little bit later on. And Joshua Palmer's been hurt. He might be back on Sunday. Number one, here's the word. Here's the word that has to be a massive part of this game plan on Sunday, and that is discipline. You need to.

Starting point is 00:21:56 to be disciplined against Josh Allen. You need to be disciplined against his mobility. You cannot give up easy chunk plays. You cannot give up third down conversions, a third and five, third and six, third and seven, and let Josh Allen run wild. The Cincinnati Bengals last weekend were atrocious in defending Josh Allen running with the football. They gave up a 40-yard touchdown. Nobody. Nobody. The defensive end gets way too deep in the back field. Josh Allen gets past the line of scrimmage. And as soon as he gets past the line of scrimmage, there is no Cincinnati Bengal within 20 yards of the man. He runs all alone to the end zone for a touchdown. You can't have it happen if you're the Patriots on Sunday. Next gen stats posted that

Starting point is 00:22:45 Josh Allen's scrambling for 84 yards. He had five scrambles for 84 yards. That was the most by a quarterback in a game this season. And he also had that touchdown. that I mentioned on that 40-yard run. Now, when you look at Josh Allen as a runner, this is among all qualified runners, including running backs. He's first in rush EPA, expected points added. He's number one. He is number three in yards per attempt

Starting point is 00:23:10 at 5.6 yards per carry among qualified runners. He is 10th in rushing yards over-expected. He has had 15 explosive runs. Mike Vrable was asked about it this week, and he said, you know, defending Josh Allen, Andrew Callahan posted. Mike Frable said you've got to be coordinated and relentless. Coordinated and relentless.

Starting point is 00:23:34 Understand. Understand what you're trying to do as a pass rusher. Be on the same page as your teammates. Never give up. Stay in the play. Remain relentless. Your coverage has to be relentless because Josh Allen is going to try to extend. You have to be disciplined.

Starting point is 00:23:51 Another thing for the Patriots defense. do not expect to get much pass rush. Just being honest with you, I do not expect the Patriots to get much pass rush at all on Sunday. First of all, they've had issues with their four-man pass rush. Harold Landry did not practice on Thursday. We'll see if that's just management. They did practice in pads.

Starting point is 00:24:16 I don't know if it was management, though, because you just got off the buy week. So will Harold Landry play? we'll have to see. But the bigger issue for the Patriots pass rush is they're going against this Buffalo Offensive line. And this Buffalo offensive line is one of the best in football. They're going to get back their starting right tackle on Spencer Brown.

Starting point is 00:24:36 Spencer Brown on the right side, Dion Dawkins on the left side, you are talking about two of the best tackles in football. So for a team like the Patriots, a defense that has not been able to get pass rush consistently from four-man pass rushes, it's going to be an incredibly tall task to get any kind of pressure on the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen with these two starting tackles. And you don't have Milton Williams again. How good is the bill's offensive line? They've given up the sixth least amount of pressure. They have the sixth lowest pressure rate. And it's not one of those things. I always talk about the context of time to pressure

Starting point is 00:25:13 and how some of that pressure rate can be misleading. Not with the Buffalo Bills. Not with the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills not only have the sixth lowest pressure rate as an offensive line given up in football. They are third in ESPN's pass block win rate as a team. They have three guys. Three of their five guys show up on the past block win rate metric. Dion Dawkins at left tackle is the second best tackle in football in that metric. Spencer Brown, the right tackle, is at 16. He's in the top 20. And when you, you look at interior offensive lineman, their center, Connor McGovern, is fourth and past block win rate. And if you want to talk about time to pressure, I'll tell you, second longest time

Starting point is 00:26:03 to pressure. And yes, Josh Allen has no doubt something to do with that, his ability to extend and scramble and all of that. But the average time to pressure the Buffalo bills, the average time the pressure to get at Josh Allen is 2.92 seconds. That is forever. In the NFL, if you're giving a quarterback almost three seconds to get rid of the football, you're going to have a long day at the office. And guess what? The offensive line has done this in pass protection, even though they have faced the 12th highest opponent blitz rate in football. So it's not like teams aren't blitzing them. They have been blitzing them and they have not been successful. The other part of this is the Patriots run defense, of course. Again, James Cook

Starting point is 00:26:49 is the engine of this of this offense. Can the Patriots run defense get back to what they were the first nine weeks of this season when they were the best run defense in football? Kyrie's Tonga, full participant at Thursday's practice, looks like he's going to be back. That is significant in this matchup because this run offense for the Buffalo Bills is tough to deal with. And Evan Lazzar wrote about the Giants and what they did against the Patriots. He wrote the Giants gun runs, the shotgun runs featuring a read option element were particularly effective. New York ran for 69 yards on 10 shotgun carries, gaining an average of 3.2 rushing yards before contact. Things like RPO's post-snap option to throw a screen or hand the ball off based on how many guys are in the box.

Starting point is 00:27:40 Josh Allen can and will run RPO's. He will run read options. Another part of this is, as Evan Lizarre wrote, the Giants also had some success with zone lead schemes, running the ball to the weak side of the formation, which was Buffalo's preferred run of choice in their 249-yard rushing performance against the Steelers in week 13.

Starting point is 00:28:02 The Bills run game, a lot to deal with. They can play big. They can play three tight ends. They can play two tight ends with a full back. They will throw a sixth offensive linemen out there. their run game is third in DVOA, their third in run block win rate. Again, that offensive line is tremendous. Their first in rushing yards per game, first in rushing yards per carry.

Starting point is 00:28:23 They're fourth in the NFL and success rate, rush EPA, and yards before contact, again, that offensive line. Tyrell Shavers and Khalil Shakur, they both are willing blockers at wide receiver. James Cook, second in yards, six in yards per attempt. He's first and rushing yards over-expected. He is the third best runner in yards after contact with 869 rushing yards after contact and he has had the third most explosive runs in the league,

Starting point is 00:28:56 30 runs of 10 plus yards. Now there is one fly in the ointment for James Cook. Six fumbles. That's the most fumbles in the league. Most fumbles lost as well. He's had four fumbles the last two weeks, including one near the goal line. against Cincinnati last weekend.

Starting point is 00:29:13 So a little bit of fumbleitis for James Cook. But you've got to have your gap discipline. You cannot over-pursue, and you have to make sure that you don't allow those cutback lanes to James Cook. The other thing facing this Bill's offense is you have to limit the yards after the catch. We talked about that before week five, but it is still the case. Buffalo will get creative with their screen game. They'll give you heavy personnel looks.

Starting point is 00:29:37 They'll screen out of it. They're fourth in the NFL and yards after the catch. Khalil Shakur is 7th and yards after the catch in the NFL. 445 of his 585 yards have been after the catch. That's 76%. Now will the Patriots play more man coverage? They played 41% man coverage against the bills in week 5, according to Evan Lazar.

Starting point is 00:30:01 Houston played man coverage over 42% of the time against Buffalo in week 12, according to Evan Lazare. And Josh Allen was not good against Houston's man coverage. Five of 11, 45 yards was sacked seven times. A lot going on in this matchup. Final thing I'll say before the prediction, you have to win at situational football. The Bills have the fourth best offense on third down. The Patriots have been in the top 10, third down defense.

Starting point is 00:30:32 You've got to get them off the field. The bills are 10th offensively on fourth down. Got to get them off the field. And more importantly, the Patriots, worst red zone defense in football, You've got the Buffalo Bills who are the ninth best red zone offense in the game. And I will tell you, Josh Allen against Cincinnati, he made two or three fantastic plays in the red zone that resulted in touchdowns. All right, time to get to the prediction.

Starting point is 00:30:58 The line, the bills are favorites, minus one and a half on the road. When you look at the bills, home road splits. At home, the bills are six in one averaging over 33 points a game. their only loss against the Patriots on the road. They're three and three, scoring almost 10 points less per game at 23.7, and their EPA per play is significantly lower. Interesting note, by the way, from NFL ref stats. Divisional home teams are in NFL best 47 and 16 straight up with referee John Hussey.

Starting point is 00:31:32 That includes a 3-0 straight up in 2025. So historically, John Hussey, who's going to be the lead guy of this officiating crew, historically, divisional home teams have won 75% of the time when he is the head ref. Tough game to predict. I'm going to go with the Patriots. Rable perfect after the by week, he remains so. Bills are a different team away from Buffalo. I do think it's going to be tight and a turnover can change this thing. But I've got Patriots 26, Buffalo Bills 24. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being and Everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on

Starting point is 00:32:14 the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. And did Lockdown Patriots make your Spotify rap to prove it on social media to secure a free month of our brand new Everydayer Club? Just tag our national lockdown podcast network account on any social platform. We'll drop you a code. Be one of the first to join the Everydayer Club to get your favorite show, ad free and exclusive access to the members only Discord channel. Have a great day. hopefully we have a win on Sunday we'll see it in the post game then be well

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Drama: Drake Maye Eyes AFC East Title—Can Patriots End Josh Allen’s Reign?

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