Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Duel: Drake Maye Faces Toughest Test | Can Patriots' QB Outsmart Browns?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Drake May faces his toughest test to this point of the season and maybe the toughest test he's going to face all year with this Cleveland Browns defense. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:27 What's happening? I am your host, Nick. Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering the Patriots for the past 16 years, co-host of the Greg Bedard's Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles and also a sports talk show host veteran. On today's deep dive preview, we'll tell you why the word of the day on Sunday will be efficient. Also, we'll tell you why Harold Landry could be the most important defensive player in this matchup. But first, the Pat's offense prepares for a scary, scary defense. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen.

Starting point is 00:01:00 for being an every day or the Lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And don't forget, on Sunday, we will go live on YouTube post-game Sunday, post-Browns Patriots. This episode is brought to by Mazda, like our players, Mazda sweats every detail because when you make every move count pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights. And this week's moving the game forward, Mazda move and be. moved. This challenge on Sunday for Drake May is a next level challenge. The Cleveland Browns,

Starting point is 00:01:37 they're the best defense that the Patriots have faced this year. And I don't think it's relatively close. Cleveland's defense is third overall in the NFL to this point of the season in EPA. And we're talking about multiple challenges. But let's begin with the talent. The talent that Drake May is going to look at across from him on Sunday, it's pretty crazy. Now, when we talk about the Cleveland Brown's defense, we always talk about Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett is the guy. Miles Garrett is the man. He's one of the best defensive players in football, and all of that is true. He is devastating in the pass rush. He has this Euro step pass rush now move, which is just outrageous. I don't know if you've seen it. If you haven't seen it, make it a point to see it before

Starting point is 00:02:25 Sunday. It's literally a Euro step past the tackle. It's bananas. His pass rush is unbelievable. He's also very good against the run and don't get it twisted. He's not just going to stay locked in at one position. He will face off against the left tackle and he will face off against the right tackle. He moves around the defensive line. So Cleveland, they're not going to sit there and just let Miles Garrett be static on the D line, like some other teams and their best pass. rushers. So Miles Garrett is an immediate headache, but I want to look beyond Miles Garrett because I think as we look at this defense and we talk about how huge of a challenge it's going to be for Drake May, we have to understand, acknowledge, and even embrace that there are a lot of

Starting point is 00:03:09 guys on this defense that can cause the Patriots and especially the Patriots offensive line some problems. So you've got Miles Garrett. You've got Alex Wright. Alex Wright is the defensive end opposite of Miles Garrett. Now, I didn't know much about Alex Wright, but I watched the Browns Dolphins game from last weekend, and Alex Wright popped. He popped to me. And he is a very dangerous football player. He is very good off the edge. And then you want to talk about the interior. We know how much talent the Patriots have on the interior defensive line. Well, Cleveland and their interior defensive line, pretty darn good. Malik Collins is a beast. You want to talk about another guy who jumped off the film watching Dolphins Browns,

Starting point is 00:03:57 Malik Collins can dominate a drive. He can dominate stretches of a football game. And a guy that we talked about an awful lot before the draft was Mason Graham from Michigan. Mason Graham, of course, now with Cleveland. So you've got Malik Collins and Mason Graham in the middle of that D-line. On the edges, you've got Miles Garrett and Alex Wright. And then you get to the second level linebacker Carson Schwessinger is very good in coverage and don't be surprised if you see him blitz a number of times because Cleveland loves to use him with their pass rush and he has been good as a pass rusher. So you look at the defensive line, then you look at Carson Schwessinger, and then you want to

Starting point is 00:04:38 look at the defensive backs, Denzel Ward, Tyson Campbell, Grant Delpit, the safety. I mean, this team has a lot of talent on that side of the football. And it'd be one thing if they had talent, but didn't have a scheme, didn't have a good defensive mind as their coordinator, but they do. Jim Schwartz is no joke. He will run a bunch of games on Sunday against this Patriots offensive line. He will drop his defensive lineman. He will blitz his corners.

Starting point is 00:05:07 He will blitz his safeties, simulated pressures, stunts, all sorts of games will be played on Sunday against this Patriots offensive line. And let's not forget, one of the things that Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have struggled with are stunts, our games. And you know, Jim Schwartz is watching that on film. And so I would be prepared on Sunday to watch a lot of games being played literally and figuratively by Jim Schwartz and his defense. They're going to mess with the minds of the young left side of this offensive line. It is going to be a monumental challenge for Will Campbell. in Jared Wilson on Sunday, not just because of talent that they're facing,

Starting point is 00:05:49 but also the scheme and the games that they're going to face. Jim Schwartz will, again, blitz Grant Delpit. He will blitz Carson Schwetzinger. He will just blitz all sorts of guys. And he will replace players with other players on the defensive line. And Mike Vrable said this week to the media that a Jim Schwartz defense likes to play fast. Now, it'll be interesting because Jim Schwartz was actually on Mike Vrable's staff in both 2021 and 22 in Tennessee. So what did Mike Vrable gather from having Jim Schwartz on his staff?

Starting point is 00:06:28 Maybe we'll find out on Sunday. Maybe he knows some of the tendencies. But this is going to be just a huge challenge. And mentally for Drake May, it's going to be a challenge. Understanding what he's seeing in front of him, pre-snap, post-snap, zone, man. I mean, the Browns' defensive numbers are nuts. Looking at the defensive line, the Browns are first in the NFL and pass rush win rate.

Starting point is 00:06:54 They win 56% of the time, which is crazy. The second best pass rush win rate in football is the Steelers. And we remember the trouble the Steelers represented, going back a few weeks ago at Gillette, the Steelers, they win 50% of the time. 6% is a gigantic gap. And it's not just the Cleveland Browns get pressure. It's not just that they win their pass rush, but they get their pressure quickly.

Starting point is 00:07:23 The Browns are number one in the NFL in time to pressure. They pressure the quarterback at 2.41 seconds. Remember, a quick pressure in the NFL is considered 2.5 seconds or less. The Browns, they're getting to the quarterback in just a shade over 2.4. Lightning quick, which means Drake May has to be ready and he's got to be decisive. This is such a big challenge for Drake May. Miles Garrett is eighth and past rush win rate. Malik Collins is fourth.

Starting point is 00:07:52 Mason Graham is 10th. Drake May's pocket presence is going to be tested. We talked about it following the Tennessee game. The one nitpick I had about Drake May's game and you've seen other voices and you've read other people in the space about Drake May taking off last weekend against Tennessee. He did not necessarily have to scramble as much as he did. his pocket presence and his pocket awareness is going to be tested heavily on Sunday. He's got to make the right decisions.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Oh, and if you want to run the football, good luck. We know the Patriots haven't been able to run. And when you look at Cleveland's run defense, it's as good as the Patriots run defense through seven weeks. Fourth best in rushing yards per game. They're first in run-stop win rate. They're first in yards per carry at 3.3. They're first in stuff rate.

Starting point is 00:08:42 They're first, an EPA per rush. How do you attack them? I'll tell you how you attack them. What I would expect from Josh McDaniels and Drake May on Sunday is a lot of quick game. A lot of getting the football out of Drake May's hands as fast as humanly possible. There is no time to mess around against this defense. So I think you'll see a lot of quick game. You'll see, I would imagine, a number of screens.

Starting point is 00:09:08 I do think Cleveland could be vulnerable. with the screen games to the wide receivers and maybe even tight ends. Miami tried it. It looked like they had some opportunities, but to a Tunga Vyloa, it was just terrible. And the weather wasn't good. So I think you'll see a lot of quick game. You'll see some screens, and you will see Drake May bootleg action away from that pressure. He will try to use his athleticism.

Starting point is 00:09:34 Josh McDaniels will try to use his athleticism, cut the field in half, and run those bootlegs. Evan Lazar, Patriots.com, had a point about Cleveland versus moving pockets. They've struggled some. Cleveland is allowing a plus 0.30 EPA per play, which is 24th in the NFL on designed rollouts, including chunk plays of 36, 32, 25, 20, and 15 yards in recent weeks. So they have not done great against moving pockets. Be prepared for the bootleg action. And I think the Patriots will take occasional shots downfield. just because Drake May has been great, which we talked about before the Tennessee game, but as Taylor Kyle's from CLNS points out, offenses have had success going vertical against

Starting point is 00:10:18 the Browns, attacking corners not named Denzel Ward, who's really good. And so, you know, they will try to attack Tyson Campbell from time to time going deep downfield. One more interesting note, the Cleveland Browns at home, they've given up 11 points per game, but on the road, including the game in London, they've given up 29.75 points per game. This is a tremendous, tremendous challenge for Josh McDaniels, Drake May, and the rest of this offense. All right, the Pats should have a significant advantage over the Browns offense. Find out what that advantage is next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:13:03 six months free. Terms and conditions apply. A couple reminders. Number one, don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe if you're watching on YouTube, those thumbs up and those comments, help us with the algorithm. And we're trying to get to 7,000 subs. We are so close. Hopefully we are there by Sunday for this Browns game.

Starting point is 00:13:25 And speaking of the game on Sunday, I will be going live on YouTube, following Browns, Patriots. So you want to check that out as well. here's the good news. I just told you about how this Cleveland Brown's defense is the toughest test, the biggest challenge for Drake May up to this point in the season. And maybe you might even say likely the biggest test this year. Simply put, now we'll see what happens if the Patriots get to the playoffs, yada yada. But that's how I feel about this Cleveland Brown's defense. It is a very tough, tough test. But here's the good news. The Patriots defense will face another offensively challenged football team. And the question for me and the question for all of you should be a question that Mike Vrable is asking every single week. Can we actually get off to a fast start defensively?

Starting point is 00:14:14 Now, Craig Woodson, he was limited in practice on Thursday, but the Patriots seem pretty healthy. Not much to be said on the injury report this week. So maybe Craig Woodson misses some snaps. Maybe he's out there and ready to go. We'll see what happens there. But let's start with the defense and what the Patriots, their strength, what they can do against a Cleveland weakness. And to me, you start in the trenches. The Patriots defensive line, we know how great they've been this year.

Starting point is 00:14:43 And the Cleveland offensive line has not been very good. And I'll tell you, Cleveland has a tackle problem. They've got an offensive tackle problem. Now, Jack Conklin looks like he's going to be returning. He missed last week against Miami with a concussion. He's out of the protocol. So it looks like he's going to return. He is the Brown's right tackle.

Starting point is 00:15:02 But there are problems for this Cleveland offensive line. In past protection, the Browns have given up the third worst pressure rate in football. So if you're Harold Landry, if you're Caleban Chase on, Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, even Kyrie's Tonga, go to work. They should be able to work this offensive line and get a lot of good results, especially off the edge. Not only have the Browns giving up the third worst pressure rate, they are 29th in ESPN's pass block win rate, one of the worst past protecting offensive lines in the NFL, and they are 20th in the league in time to pressure. So you should be able to pressure Dylan Gabriel. You should be able to disrupt him. Mike Grable loves the word disruption. You should be able to disrupt this

Starting point is 00:15:55 Cleveland offense on Sunday. Speaking of Dylan Gabriel, he's only had three starts at the NFL level watching him against Miami I would say nothing special nothing elite about him uh he's not a very big guy uh you know his arm strengths I guess fine but there's nothing that watching him stands out when you go oh that that could be a big problem for the Patriots the Patriots defense will not be able to handle X I don't see it with Dylan Gabriel not to say he won't be a good quarterback maybe he'll end up being a good quarterback, but he will be a good quarterback in the NFL based off of intangibles and decision-making and those types of things. We're not talking about an elite physical presence

Starting point is 00:16:38 or elite traits. And he really hasn't tested defenses deep very often. Ben Fennell, who is with the NFL on CBS and the NFL on Prime, he's a producer for them. He posted this week, completion percentage on passes that are 10 plus air yards. There are 3,000. 34 quarterbacks who qualify, completion percentage, 10 plus air yards, 34 qualified quarterbacks. You want to guess where Dylan Gabriel is? 34th. Dylan Gabriel's completion percentage on passes that are 10 or more ear yards is 34.5%. Which begs the question, will the Patriots play more man coverage?

Starting point is 00:17:23 When you're looking at the Cleveland Brown's offense, you're looking at Jerry Judy and pretty much a number of unproven cats. They don't have a ton of talent at wide receiver. And you got a quarterback who doesn't test defenses deep. And when he's thrown beyond 10 yards, he has been the most inaccurate quarterback in the NFL. Under 35% is that completion percentage. So maybe the Patriots do play more man coverage. The number one priority for the Patriots defense, and this is going to sound like I'm a broken record, but it's because they're facing a lot of teams that don't have a ton of weapons at wide receiver that have some question marks at quarterback or young quarterbacks.

Starting point is 00:18:03 The number one priority for the Patriots defense is to limit Quintan Junkins. They have to limit Quintan Junkins. Junkins is really most of this offense. He's third in the NFL and rushing yards over expected. So he gets a lot of yardage that he shouldn't be getting. He does show some speed. some burst to the second level of the defense and even get to the third level. The other thing about Quinn Sean Junkins is that he is third in the NFL and yards after

Starting point is 00:18:35 contact. So he's tough to bring down. He's got tremendous contact balance, which means if you're the Patriots defense, two words, wrap up. You've got to be able to wrap up Quinn Sean Junkins if you want to slow down this run game. Here's the good news. Andrew Callahan posted this week, the Patriots have missed a total of

Starting point is 00:18:55 five tackles the last two weeks. Remember, the first two or three weeks of the year, one of the biggest issues for the Patriots, and one of the reasons why they were giving up so many big plays, chunk plays, was because of missed tackles. Specifically, Christian Ellis and Robert Spillane got off to a terrible start the first couple weeks, missing tackles. That has changed. The Patriots have missed a grand total of five tackles the last two weeks. That is from Andrew Callahan, who got those numbers from pro football focus. So wrap up, Quinchan Junkins, put this game on Dylan Gabriel. Don't give them anything short, make it tough in the intermediate, and see what happens.

Starting point is 00:19:40 The Patriots, I do think they should limit, if not stop the run, if they're linebackers and their defensive backs tackle well. You know, the Brown's offensive line, they've given up the fifth highest stuff rate in the NFL. They're 32nd. This Cleveland run game is 30 second in success rate, worse than the Patriots. They're 32nd in rushing yards before contact per attempt. So again, that goes back to the yards after contact from Quinn Sean Jenkins. It's not because the offensive line is getting this major push carry in and carry out. Now, I will say the Browns have faced the most stacked boxes in the NFL,

Starting point is 00:20:22 their first an opponent stacked box rate. And that's because I would imagine that teams are looking at this and saying, okay, we're going to force, we are going to dare Dylan Gabriel to beat us. We are not going to let Quinn Sean Junkins run for 200 yards. We're not going to let that happen.

Starting point is 00:20:41 And one more thing to keep in mind, Taylor Kyle does a great job for CL&S. He noted this week that most of the explosive runs from Quinn Sean Jenkins go to the right side of the offense. Here's the good news, Harold Landry. Harold Landry is going to be over there, and Harold Landry is the better run defender on the edges, much better.

Starting point is 00:21:04 Now maybe Cleveland changes this up and they go left more and they try to, you know, go after. They try to go after Kalevon Chase on in the run game. Offenses have done that. But the Patriots should be able to do a decent job, if not really good job against the run. They've done it all year. They haven't given up a 50-yard rusher all season,

Starting point is 00:21:23 the only team in the NFL that has done that. And they should force this game to be all about Dylan Gabriel. All right, adjustments, kitchen sinks, and our prediction for Sunday is coming up next. And we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to by Mazda's moving the game forward.

Starting point is 00:21:46 For those who believe it's not just about playing the game, It's about redefining it. There are moments that do more than put points on the board. They move crowds. They move culture and keep moving the game forward. And this week's moment that moved the game forward is Kalevon Chase-on's scoop and score versus Cam Ward in Tennessee. On the very first offensive possession for Tennessee in the third quarter, Chase-on got a pressure on Ward causing the quarterback to backpedal and fumble the football,

Starting point is 00:22:11 which Chase-on picked up and scored for the New England defense. That touchdown, and the following extra point made it a three-possession game. at 31.13 and pretty much ended the day. Chason ended up being awarded AFC defensive player of the week, finishing with three tackles, two sacks, and that touchdown, which was Chaseon's first career score. Chaseon kept the team moving, effectively closing the book on their fourth straight win with his huge performance. And when you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight, there's more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda, move and B-moot.

Starting point is 00:22:48 Mike Rable and this defensive staff, they've done one thing that's been really good, and that's adjustments. Their adjustments in-game have been incredibly impressive. We talk about the slow starts, and I've got the numbers for you, folks, thanks to Evan Lazar. When you look at the first three drives of games against this Patriots defense and you compare it to the rest of the game, it's not even close. It's night and day. First three drives against the Patriots defense this year, the Patriots are 30th in EPA per play. The rest of the game, after three drives, the Patriots are third in EPA per play. From 30th to third in success rate, the first three drives for offenses against the Patriots defense.

Starting point is 00:23:31 The Patriots success rate defensively is 32nd, dead last in the NFL. But when you look at the rest of the game after the first three drives, the Patriots are 10th in success rate. Again, not even close. You want to talk about the explosive plays. Season began with explosive play after explosive play against the Raiders. In the first three drives of the game, the Patriots defense are 30th, an explosive play rate. The rest of the game, they're eighth.

Starting point is 00:24:03 They're eighth in explosive play rate. We're talking about Jekyll and Hyde. And so will this defense this weekend finally get off to a fast start? because if they do, they should be able to mostly shut down this Cleveland Brown's offense unless the Patriots offense turns the football over. They give up short fields. They give up defensive touchdowns or special teams gets broken apart. If the Patriots start off fast and they continue to play as well as they've played after the first three drives,

Starting point is 00:24:39 then they should be able to limit Cleveland all day long. Now, Kevin Stefansky, he is going. going to throw the kitchen sink at the Patriots defense. He's going to get a little bit wild with formations. He will throw everything at this defense. You will see the regular shotgun. You'll see under center. You'll see under center with eye formation.

Starting point is 00:25:02 You'll see jumbo sets with six offensive linemen, seven offensive linemen. You will see bootleg action from Dylan Gabriel, old West Coast. Don't forget, Kevin Stefanski from that West Coast tree. So you'll see play action and bootlegs. off-to-play action. You will see trips to the right. You will see trips to the left with their receivers. You'll even see some Wildcat, maybe. They had two or three snaps against Miami last weekend of Wildcat with Quinn Sean Judkins. So Kevin Stefanski is not afraid. We talked about Jim Schwartz earlier of spinning the dial and attacking offenses with all sorts of

Starting point is 00:25:37 different looks and games up front. Kevin Stefansky, he'll mess around. He'll mess around with you. And so that means the Patriots defense has to be disciplined. They've got to be disciplined, especially on the second and third levels. Don't get caught up in the formations. Don't get caught up in some of the pre-snap motion, some of the window dressing, as we say, stay disciplined, keep your eyes disciplined. Now, the jumbo package against Miami that I saw didn't work out. So I don't know how often they'll go jumbo against this Patriots defense because it felt like every time they went jumbo, they ran for a loss. And I will say Kevin Stefansky, and this happens to.

Starting point is 00:26:16 to a lot of coordinators, they kind of fall in love with the formations and the looks. And sometimes Kevin Stefansky can get a little bit too cute. And that could backfire. Now, for the Patriots, one more note about the offense, don't expect tons of big play opportunities. And because of that, it means efficiency. Efficiency on the offensive side is crucial. And Kevin Cole from unexpected points, he posted with Sam,

Starting point is 00:26:46 Donald's struggling a bit on Monday night football, we have a new quarterback efficiency, EPA per play leader, and that is Drake May. Drake May is number one in the entire NFL and quarterback efficiency, EPA per play, at plus 0.35. Dylan Gabriel is 28th in the NFL in EPA per play at a minus 0.04. So if you're looking at a game that's not going to have a ton of explosive plays, it's going to come down to playing efficiently, and Drake May has been much better than Dylan Gabriel in that category. As a matter of fact, I just quote tweeted at Nick C. Radio, another set from

Starting point is 00:27:28 football insights. And if you look at it, Drake May, EPA per play, he is top five in the NFL against zone coverage, and he is the best quarterback in the NFL EPA per play against man coverage. Drake May just has to remember one thing. Don't try to do too much. Don't try to do too much. I don't think the run game is going to get popping this weekend. Maybe I'm wrong. Mike Vrable said this week to the media,

Starting point is 00:27:57 you know, if you get eight yards against this defense, that's a long run because their safeties do a great job of coming up and tackling. So you've got to be efficient with your offense. Drake May has got to be passing the test. Mentally, he's going to have great pocket presence and awareness. If he scrambles, he's going to get down. He's going to remain a passer when he's extending plays. He has to be efficient.

Starting point is 00:28:25 In overall, big picture, take care of the football. The Cleveland Browns took advantage of Miami's turnovers last weekend. They had a defensive score. They also got a turnover at like the two-yard line, which they quickly plowed in. They got 14 points off Miami turnovers quickly. And if you're looking at turnover differential, Cleveland's neutral.

Starting point is 00:28:49 They're at zero through seven weeks. The Patriots are actually a plus two in turnover differential. In five of their seven giveaways were in that Pittsburgh game. So you got the five giveaways against Pittsburgh. The other six games this year so far, you've had two giveaways. Take care of the football. Don't make it easy for that Cleveland's.

Starting point is 00:29:10 offense. And obviously, because you're going against a Cleveland defense, that's so good, creating a couple of turnovers would be gigantic in this game. All right, here's my prediction. I'm getting ready for a fist fight in a phone booth. This game could be ugly. Both defenses could be very, very tough. But I give the Patriots the edge. And I give the Patriots the edge because I believe they have the better head coach. I know they've got the better quarterback. And they're playing at home. They've got home cooking at Gillette Stadium. But I think this could be very tough. And one or two turnovers can change this game dramatically. But right now I've got New England, 20, Cleveland, let's say 13. Now again, turnovers can change that. But I think

Starting point is 00:30:00 this is going to be a little bit of a fist fight at a phone booth type game where you're fighting for every single yard if you're the Patriots offense. And this, This is one of those games where, all right, if your offense can't score 24, 27, 30 points, it's going to be up to your defense. And I think it would be a nice thing to see this Patriots defense win a game from beginning to end. I would love to see it. But I've got the Patriots, and I would not be surprised if it's tighter than a touchdown because of everything we've talked about.

Starting point is 00:30:33 All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. Don't forget we go live on Sunday following Brown's Patriots. And for your second listen, get a double dose of Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins.

Starting point is 00:30:55 Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great weekend. And we will see you for the live post game on Sunday. Thank you.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Duel: Drake Maye Faces Toughest Test | Can Patriots' QB Outsmart Browns?

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