Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Dueling Projections For 2025 New England Patriots | Hunter Henry Vital

Episode Date: May 30, 2025

The New England Patriots continue camp, as two major media outlets have conflicting predictions for Mike Vrabel’s team in 2025. What do those predictions tell us?Also, Hunter Henry should not be taken for granted this year, as we think about Josh McDaniels, Drake Maye, and the rest of this Patriots offense. We’ll tell you why. And, finally, TreVeyon Henderson has yet to sign his rookie contract. We’ll tell you why that has a lot more to do with the Houston Texans and the Cleveland Browns than it does the New England Patriots.Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPatriots?sid=YouTubeLocked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL#patriots #newenglandpatriotsSupport Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!FanDuelRight now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONNFL at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

Two powerhouse media outlets disagree on the Pats. That's where we start on this episode of Locked On Patriots. You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. What's up, Patriots fans? I am your host, Nick Kettles, born and raised in New England, your New England Patriots expert, host of the Everything Pats podcast, co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattles,

and also a Sports Talk show host veteran. On today's episode, Hunter Henry's importance to the operation, and we'll discuss how two teams have made it much tougher for the Pats to sign Trevion Henderson. But first, what conflicting projections for the 2025 season from two supermodels actually tells us. We appreciate you joining the show, making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. The Lockdown Patriots podcast is a proud partner of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And one more note, starting next week on Monday, we'll be going three

days a week from June 2nd to July 14th. We'll have a podcast on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for you. And then we get back to five days a week on July 14th to get you ready for training camp. Expectations for this team are growing. And we've been talking about that the last couple of weeks, but there have been two super power media outlets. Releasing their projections over the last several days to a week or so. And we have two different results, a different result from each super power projection. Let's take a look.

Jacob Robinson from the Athletic wrote this about the Patriots' playoff chances. The Athletics' Jeff Howe and Austin Mach ran 100,000 simulations to project 2025. Of the eight teams with the worst records in 2024, Mike Vrabel's Patriots are projected to have the biggest turnaround. Their 8.9 wins have them a hair behind the Chargers for the AFC's final playoff spot. So the Athletic ran 100,000 simulations and they had the Patriots sitting right there at the number 8 spot. Seven teams make the playoffs for each conference. If the Patriots are quote unquote a hair behind the chargers for the AFC's final playoff spot, that means the Patriots are sitting eighth in the AFC. Meanwhile, ESPN

recently released their FPI, their football power index projections, best playoff odds in each conference, and ESPN lists the top 10 teams in the AFC and the Patriots are not on that list. Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, Chargers, Texans, Broncos, Steelers, Dolphins, Colts, Patriots not in the top 10. As a matter of fact, ESPN's football power index ranks the Patriots as the 10th worst team in the league and says that their chance at the number one pick is 3 percent their chance at a top five pick is 18 percent

now I'm not gonna sit here and tell you which projection I think is the best projection because they're simulations they're trying to predict and project the future which is incredibly difficult to do you can try to do it on the future which is incredibly difficult to do You can try to do it on paper But it's really difficult. So I'm not here to tell you that ESPN is wrong. The athletic is right or vice versa What I want to underscore here is the fact that these two projections

Show us How big of a difference one or two wins could mean for this program. Because when you think about it, the small things matter. The difference between being Team 11, Team 12, and the AFC, and being Team 7 and getting into the playoffs, the gap between those two teams, it's pretty small. And so ESPN's football power index doesn't have the Patriots in the top 10. But would they have a shot to get into the playoffs?

Of course, it's just their percentage to get into the playoffs is lower than those other 10 teams. One or two wins would swing that dramatically. One or two more wins puts the Patriots in the playoff conversation. And if not at number seven, one or two more wins puts the Patriots right where the athletic has them, sitting right behind the Chargers. The small things matter. When we talk about this team and the difference between being just another bad season being behind 10-11 AFC teams 12 AFC teams and being in the mix in December the difference is one or two games when you look at it big picture that's what you're talking about so the small

things matter what will make the Patriots better what will make the Patriots better? What will make the Patriots inch closer to the playoff conversation? Then further away from it. Turnover differential is one of those things. The Patriots were 28th in the NFL last year in turnover differential. Bottom five, baby. Brutal. Special teams, 2023. Some would argue that the Patriots, yes, they finished with four wins, but Chad Ryland cost them at least two or three games that year. Special teams could swing you from the 11th or 12th best team in the AFC to the seventh or eighth best team in the AFC. The margin for error in the NFL is so slim. Red zone offense, Patriots last year, do you remember where they finished?

Brutal. The Patriots were 30th in the NFL. Last time I checked there are 32 teams in the NFL. The Patriots were 30th in red zone offense, red zone efficiency last season. These are the small things. If you improve in those three categories, given the year we're talking about, if your special teams is better in 2023, you don't end up doing what you did in drafting Drake May. If you have a better turnover differential or your red zone efficiency is a little bit better,

you win two or three more games last year, even with Gerard Mayo in that stack, and you're not sitting at number four. So we can look at these small things and sometimes take them for granted. but when you're trying to build yourself back when you're trying to get to that conversation of being worthwhile in December this is how you do it and these projections show us that one little swing here one little swing there swings the percentages up or down.

And this is where we talk about Mike Vrabel. This is the difference a head coach can make. There's a big difference between a coach that can lead you to a nine win season and an 11 win season. There's a big difference between a coach that can get you to the playoffs rather consistently or get you to the conference championship game somewhat consistently. There are different levels to this as they say and Mike Vrabel, he brings a difference.

Mike Vrabel alone in this coaching staff could mean one or two wins for you. And that's huge. If Mike Vrabel wins you a game, if he wins you two games because of his coaching ability, that could be the difference between another bad season or being in the playoff conversation, God forbid even getting into the playoffs. Situational football. Red zone, down in distance, fourth down decisions near midfield, fourth down decisions in the opponent's territory, fourth down decisions when you're in field goal range. Situational football and that's why Vrabel has pounded that since day one. Introductory press conference taking advantage of bad football, he's talking about we've got to be buttoned up when it comes to situationally understanding what we've got to do. This is why Vrabel pushes finish and effort. Having better finish and better effort than your opposition could single-handedly

win you a game. Think about all the one score games that happened in the NFL. If you just made this tackle, if you just finished this run, if you were able to just finish this drive, all of those little details add up to something that makes a big difference. And it's not just variable. You can look at Josh McDaniels. Josh McDaniels, if he schemes up this offense and they have better early down success, if you have early down success, now you're extending drives.

You extend drives, you usually get into the red zone. More bites of the apple when you get into the red zone. More bites of the apple when you get into the red zone. If you bump up your red zone efficiency, you're scoring more touchdowns, you're making it more difficult on the opposition to beat you to outslug you. Josh McDaniels, I think is going to utilize Drake May more in the run game. I think he's going to run on third down and short at times, fourth down and short, he's going to run in the red zone, having a third down running back like Trevion Henderson

and his ability to pass protect and catch the football, create explosive plays. So this is not to sit there and doubt either of these projection models or the simulations. It's just to highlight the fact that the small things matter and I believe that Mike Vrabel is the type of head coach that not only understands that, but will take advantage of that in 2025. One position could crumble with one injury and we're not talking about quarterback. That's coming up next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The NBA playoffs, they are in full swing and every night delivers highlight worthy

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to this offense. We talk about Stefan Diggs, and we talk about all the new additions through the draft and free agency. We get all excited about the new shiny toy. draft and free agency, we get all excited about the new shiny toy. But Hunter Henry is as critical as pretty much any of them. Pro Football Focus recently ranked Henry as the 16th best tight end in football. Here's what they wrote, Henry has been one of the most consistent tight ends in

the game since entering the league. Since 2019, he has put together four seasons with at least 600 receiving yards and a 72.2 PFF receiving grade. Over his nine-year career, Henry has dropped just 18 passes. Absorb that. Absorb that for a minute. This guy has been in the league for nine years. He has 18 drops. Not too shabby. Reason number one why Hunter Henry is one of the most critical pieces to this offense. What PFF wrote? Consistency. Consistency is crucial, especially for this team. Think about some of the other skill position players. team. Think about some of the other skill position players. Stefan Diggs, ACL injury, surgery, the recent distraction. We don't really know what Stefan Diggs is going to be capable of

if when he gets back onto the field. We don't know if he's going to be able to impact the game consistently enough. Kendrick Bourne, most of his Patriots career has been up and down. And I like Bourne, but I would not sit here and tell you that he's been consistent. Some would argue he's been consistently inconsistent. Then you look at the other receivers. Pop Douglas has been a bit up and down. The young guys, the really young guys, Jalen Polk, do you believe him? Javon Baker, do you believe in him?

Kyle Williams, no matter how high you are on Kyle Williams, we don't know if Kyle Williams is going to be a week to week security blanket for your second year quarterback. Efton Chisholm is wowing people right now at OTAs doesn't mean he's going to make the team and if he makes the team that doesn't mean he's going to be consistent. Hunter Henry is captain consistency and you need that for an offense. You need that for this particular offense because there are so many players at skilled positions that have been scarred by inconsistencies. And Stefan Diggs has been scarred literally with the ACL.

So Henry's consistency, so important. Reason number two, Hunter Henry, is one of the most critical pieces to this offense. How's your tight end depth you feel good about it? Now I'm fine with the tight end position Hunter Henry Austin Hooper cool with it, but if Hunter Henry is Ailing in any kind of way if he goes down for any kind of stretch What's your depth chart look like? If Hunter Henry

goes down, now Austin Hooper is your number one. Hooper turns 31 in October. And I think all of us would agree that Hooper at this point and pretty much throughout his entire career give or take a few stretches, he's really been a second tight end. Henry goes down, Hooper is now your number one tight end. Then what else do you have at the position? Patriots didn't use a pick this past draft on somebody who could develop at tight end. They did not draft one of those developmental tight ends. Now they did bring in CJ Dupree and a couple of other guys as UDFAs and maybe Dupree makes this team and maybe he'll be good enough when the season

kicks off to be a second tight end just in case something did happen to Henry, but we don't know that right now in late May. We don't know. Jaheem Bell, Jack Westover. So the tight end depth chart, once you get past Henry and Hooper, you got a bunch of questions. And if Henry goes down, that could cause some issues for this offense. That could cause some issues for Drake May.

The third reason why Hunter Henry is one of the most critical pieces to this offense in 2025 is the importance of his position. The importance of his position in a Josh McDaniels offense. Josh McDaniels as we know loves tight ends, loves using tight ends. He will attack defenses over and over and over again with tight ends if he's allowed to do it. He will kill you throwing the football to his tight ends

down the seam for big plays. How many times did we see the old play action spin around by Brady down the seam? Countless, countless times. We know McDaniels leans on that to hit some explosive plays and this is an offense that has not had many explosive plays over the last couple of years. So attacking defenses, attacking linebackers, attacking safeties down the seam is something McDaniels loves to do and you are capable of doing that when you have Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper linebackers attacking safeties down the seam is something McDaniels loves to do.

And you are capable of doing that when you have Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. He'll also throw in some of those tight end screens, those little misdirection screens, the fake handoffs, the little spin around the dump off to the tight end, the tight end downfield. Now, Jaheem Bell, I think think is capable of doing that but will Bell make you even make the team? I don't know. Hooper is capable of doing it. But you want to make sure you got multiple guys who can attack a defense. You've got multiple guys who can do what McDaniels wants to do. We know Hooper can do it because McDaniels was there in Vegas

in 2023 when Hooper signed. So we know that McDaniels believes Hooper has the ability, and we've seen Henry have the ability. We saw it in 2021 when McDaniels was here with Hunter Henry. But attacking the seams, going to the screen pass, how about the red zone? Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper could be pretty, pretty, pretty important when we talk about scoring in the red zone. And as we mentioned last segment, the red zone offense last year, 30th in the league, you want to bump that up.

Healthy tight ends. A healthy Hunter Henry will help you bump that up. And really just the idea of a safety valve for Drake May. To have both of these tight ends is something that Drake may I'm sure takes comfort in and to have Henry out there every week. Mr. Dependable doesn't drop a lot of passes as pro football focus touched on. He's not going to drop a bunch of footballs.

He's going to be in the right place at the right time. He's a safety valve, a bunch of footballs. He's going to be in the right place at the right time He's a safety valve security blanket for Drake may So hunter Henry to me is one of the most critical pieces to this offense We should not take Henry for granted Because if he goes down That will impact this team no doubt and I think the impact would be bigger than people might believe as we break down this offense and what they might look like in 2025. Usually second round picks are relatively easy to get signed, not this year and not Trevion Henderson. We'll tell you why

next as we continue with today's episode of Locked Onots part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Historically speaking, in the NFL, first round picks are usually the picks that take longer to sign. And when you look at why, it's usually about the timing of the guarantees, some of the injury guarantees, stuff like that. But we know that in the NFL, first round picks, they're the only picks that get guaranteed long-term security. So they are usually the tougher ones to get done. So the fact that, you know, Will Campbell's not done, he might not be done for a little while, not really a surprise. These things could drag into June.

You hope it doesn't drag into July. However, this year you got two teams that have impacted Trevion Henderson and the Patriots' ability to sign Trevion Henderson in the Patriots ability to sign Trevion Henderson. Two teams, not name the Patriots. Pro Football Talk wrote this recently, Michael David Smith on second round pick contracts. Only two of the 32 second round picks have signed. This was as of a couple of days ago, likely

because of disputes between teams and agents about fully guaranteed contracts. On May 8th, the Texans gave Jayden Higgins the second pick of the second round, the first fully guaranteed contract ever for a second round pick. I'll say that again. On May 8th, the Texans gave Jayden Higgins the first fully guaranteed contract ever handed out to a second round pick. And then you had on May 9th, the next day, the Browns gave the first pick of the second round, Carson Schweisinger, a fully guaranteed contract as well. This changes the math.

So it's a little bit tougher for the Patriots to get this deal done with Trevion Henderson because of the precedent that was set by both Houston and Cleveland at the top of the second round. As we know, Trevion Henderson was pick 38. We're talking about pick 33 and 34. Not too much separating 38 from 34. So the fact that the 33rd pick and the 34th pick have both signed fully guaranteed contracts that is impacting every other second round pick in this year's draft and this has never

happened and we know owners hate contractual precedent. They hate it. Contractual precedent the idea that a second round pick now is going to get more money guaranteed. That doesn't make owners feel good. They don't like guaranteeing more money to anybody, let alone second round picks for the first time ever. Not only more money guaranteed, but more commitment to the player. I remember when Deshaun Watson, that crazy trade happened between as ironic as this is, Houston and Cleveland. And that crazy trade happened and the Browns decided to give Deshaun Watson like $230 million guaranteed or whatever it was. Something crazy, like $230 million I whatever it was something crazy like 230 I think it was nuts nuts. So

they guaranteed almost the entire contract unheard of at the time. And that was looked down upon by fellow owners. They all looked at Haslam and said, why in the world would you go crazy here? Make that trade that you made. You can give up the picks if you want to give up the picks. We don't care about that. But why would you all of a sudden set this precedent and give the Sean Watson 230 million or so fully guaranteed? Why would you do that?

What are you doing? And that was during all of those allegations, the dozens of allegations that Watson was facing. He still got that 230 million guaranteed and teams around the league said, now we're going to have to guarantee more money to our quarterbacks because you just gave out that stupid deal. Same things kind of happening here with second round picks. Now it's not as egregious, obviously, as the Deshaun Watson contract that was signed because Watson, even though he

had those allegations, certainly had more leverage during negotiations as a franchise at the time, a franchise quarterback. But now you look at this and you say to yourself, second round picks are getting fully guaranteed money. That is precedent. Owners are not going to be comfortable with that. So they're going to drag their feet. If you're the Patriots, imagine if you're Robert Krak. Think about the Patriots recent history in the second round.

I mean, we can go back years that they had great hits in the second round. Hello, Rob Gronkowski. They've had great hits. We know that. But recently, they've had some major misses, haven't they? If you're Robert Kraft, you wouldn't have any issue giving a fully guaranteed contract out to Christian Barmore in hindsight, because Barmore ended up pretty good. How about Jalen Polk? A year after drafting him in the second round. What if you had given him a fully guaranteed contract? How do you think ownership would feel about that if you were Elliott Wool?

Whoops. How about Tyquan Thornton? How do you think ownership would feel if you gave taekwon Thornton guaranteed money? Fully guaranteed his contract. I mean second round picks get guaranteed money obviously, but fully guaranteeing the contract if it's poke if it's Thornton Yikes, if it's bar more you can live with it. Not a bad decision the unpredictability, especially once you get beyond the first round and the first round itself is unpredictable.

But when you get beyond the first round, the draft by logic gets even more unpredictable. So this is not a comfortable spot for teams and you've got to wonder how NFL owners are looking at Houston and Cleveland and the questions they're asking right now. Did you feel like you had to give fully guaranteed money? It's good for the players. I feel great for the players.

More security. Awesome. If Trevion Henderson gets a fully guaranteed contract, more security for him. Fantastic. Good stuff. But for the team, they're going to drag their feet. And so all of a sudden, you know, you're going through the first round stuff with Will Campbell, you're trying to iron out a contract with him.

And then a week or two after the draft, you've got the Higgins deal, the Schwetzenhier deal, and now you're like, Whoa, whoa, whoa. A week or two after the draft, you've got the Higgins deal, the Schwetchnir deal, and now you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa. And so now you've got two negotiations that you're trying to handle that might be a little bit more difficult than you had initially thought. Now am I afraid or concerned? No, I'm not concerned. I'm not panicked.

I'm not worried. A deal is going to get done. Henderson is going to be a patriot. They have his draft rights. He's been practicing. So this isn't cause for alarm. It's just when you look at why this is happening, and not only will it have the short-term ramifications

of trying to get this deal done, and it may be being a little bit more wonky than you might've thought at first, now you gotta think about future years as well. How will this impact teams? Will they be more likely to trade down in the second round? The guarantees are fully guaranteed. Does that change a team's approach?

And how significant is the difference between certain second round prospects in a specific year? But I'm not worried about Henderson. He's he's practicing the overall money is slotted So there's no difference of opinion as far as overall money That you would guarantee the overall money is there But it is how much of that overall money is going to be guaranteed and how is that going to be split up? I'm excited to see Trevion Henderson.

Hopefully he gets the contract done rather soon so he can fully focus on football. Same goes for Will Campbell and anybody else who's a rookie not signed just yet in the league. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Let me know your thoughts on today's topics reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C radio And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel Thank you for making lockdown Patriots your first listen today for your second listen check out lockdown NFL scouting Hosts Kyle crabs and Joe Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this off season. Find Locked On NFL Scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts.

Have a great weekend, and we will see you on Monday.