Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Elite: Patriots’ Drake Maye Dominates 2025 | Schedule Myths Debunked

Starting point is 00:00:00 Whether he wins the MVP or not, Drake May just put together one of the best regular seasons you will see from a quarterback. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New York. England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years. Also, the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. Let me give you the rundown. On today's show in the third segment, our breakdown of the

Starting point is 00:00:52 all 22 from the Dolphins game that includes props to one unheralded veteran. In our second segment, I will tell you why I believe the post-season path in front of the paths could not have fallen any better all things considered. But first, Drake May, we just witnessed one of the best quarterbacked regular seasons in Patriots history. Now, for some other organizations, that might not mean as much. But when we talk about the Patriots, when we talk about a team that drafted Drew Bledso, number one overall, when we talk about a franchise that drafted and held on to for 20 years, the greatest of all time in Tom Brady, when you're talking about one of the best quarterbacked regular seasons

Starting point is 00:01:40 in this franchise history, it means more. It hits different. In Drake May in 2025, to put it simply, this regular season we just witnessed, he was elite. And I just don't throw that word around. I don't throw it up against the wall to see if it sticks. If I say somebody had an elite season, if I say somebody is an elite quarterback, that means there aren't many other guys in that category.

Starting point is 00:02:06 There are not five or six elite quarterbacks this year. There are not five or six elite running back seasons in 2025. You're talking about a select few. You're talking about two or three guys. And it is inarguable that Drake May was elite this regular season. it is inarguable that he is one of the best quarterbacks in football, if you look at from the beginning of this season to the bitter end in week 18. Now, we can go back and forth tit for Ted about the MVP conversation,

Starting point is 00:02:38 but I'm putting that aside. That's a popularity contest. I'm not worried about the lifetime achievement. I'm not worried about the popularity contest. I'm not worried about Sean McVeigh calling a ton of one and two-yard touchdown throws from Matthew Stafford so he could have even better stats. I'm not worried about that stuff. I'm worried about the backyard.

Starting point is 00:03:00 I'm worried about the Patriots. I'm worried about Drake May. And Drake May in arguably just put together an elite season, statistically and analytically dominant in almost every single category. Pat's communications, they posted this on Twitter. Drake May's 72% completion percentage is the sixth highest in NFL history and the highest in team history for a single season. Evan Lazzar, Patriots.com.

Starting point is 00:03:26 Drake May led all qualified quarterbacks in total EPA at plus 150.3 and EPA per dropback at plus 0.25. That's according to next-gen stats. Taylor Kyle's of Thelan S posted highest single season CPOE, which is the completion percentage over expected since at least 2018 among qualified quarterbacks. Drake May, a numero one at plus 9.1. More from Taylor Kiles. Drake May's passing in this regular season. He was first in the NFL in completion percentage. He was first in the NFL in yards per attempt. He was first in EPA per dropback. He was first in past EPA. He was first in QBR. He was first in passer rating. And it's absolutely crazy. It is bananas. If you're looking at the completion percentage over expect,

Starting point is 00:04:20 and you're looking at these EPA numbers and the passer rating numbers and the QBR numbers and you fully appreciate the fact that Drake May was number one in the entire league in yards per attempt. This ain't checked down Charlie. Analytically, statistically, Drake May dominated the NFL in 2025. That is straight up pure, unadulterated dominance from your quarterback. Now let's get to the schedule. The schedule conversation is overblown. It's overblown. And for a lot of people, it lacks context and it lacks nuance. One of the best writers right now that write about the NFL is Bill Barnwell, Bill Barnwell of ESPN. He does tremendous work. And he wrote a long, as he usually does,

Starting point is 00:05:12 he wrote a very long breakdown of who should win which award in the NFL for 2025. And Bill Barnwell did a fantastic job of telling us why all the schedule talk when looking at Drake May versus Matthew Stafford has been completely and utterly overblown. Here's what Barnwell wrote at ESPN.com. The context missing from the schedule argument is that overall team strength isn't the same thing as the strength of the opposing past defense. As an example, Matthew Stafford played two games against the 49ers, who are a good. team on the whole, but field one of the worst past defenses in the league. And Drake May went up against the Browns. Cleveland has a horrible offense, but it's Miles Garrett-led defense is excellent against

Starting point is 00:06:02 the pass. Using each team's finish in past defense EPA per play from next-gen stats, Drake May's average opponent ranked 20th against the past this season. Stafford's average opponent was 17th. Do the same test, Barnwell writes, with QBR instead of past defense EPA. And their schedules were virtually identical. Drake May's average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses, while Matthew Stafford's average past defense was at 18.4.

Starting point is 00:06:38 Schedule, schedule, schedule, blah, blah, blah, blah. You look at QBR instead of past Dever, defense EPA, and their schedules are pretty much identical. 18.6 versus 18.4. Barnwell writes, while these two quarterbacks faced massively different opposition on the whole that does not hold true for the past defenses. Context and nuance. MVP or no MVP. Strength of schedule yapping or or no strength of schedule yapping. Context and nuance, arguing without context and nuance. Doesn't matter.

Starting point is 00:07:27 Drake May's regular season in 2025, which is obviously his second NFL regular season, was simply put insane. Mark Daniels and Mass Live wrote, Drake May broke a Tom Brady Patriots record by recording 13 games in a single season with a pass rating of at least 100. NFL record is 14 by Aaron Rodgers in 2020.

Starting point is 00:07:51 May put together one of the best seasons for a second year quarterback at NFL history, Mark Daniels wrote. His passing yards are the seventh most among second year quarterbacks. His completion percentage is an NFL record for a second year quarterback. And let's have some fun. All the comparisons of Drake May and Josh Allen before Drake May was drafted. All of those comparisons, we hear it over and over and over again. When the Bills play the Patriots, Drake May, Josh Allen. I'm not telling you that Drake May is Josh Allen, but what I am going to tell you is to compare their second seasons in the NFL as starting quarterbacks.

Starting point is 00:08:27 Doug Kide did this on Twitter. And when you look at the stats, it's not even close. Drake May leads completion percentage, 72% to just under 59%. 4,394 yards for Drake May. Josh Allen, just above 3,000 yards. 31 touchdowns, 8 picks for May, 20 touchdowns, 9 picks for Allen. Passer rating, Drake May, 113. Josh Allen, 85.3.

Starting point is 00:08:57 Completion percentage over-expected. May plus 9.1. Allen minus 4.1. EPA per dropback, May plus 0.25. Allen minus 0.04. QBR. Drake May's QBR in his second season, 77.2, Josh Allen's QBR in his second season, was 49.4. It is in arguable, inarguable that not only Drake May put together an elite 2025. It is also inarguable that through two NFL seasons, when comparing Drake May and Josh Allen,

Starting point is 00:09:41 Drake May is the superior quarterback. Not telling you that's going to continue. Not telling you that trend is going to be the trend in 2028. I'm just telling you. Fact, through the first two seasons of their NFL careers, Drake May was above and beyond the better quarterback. And I would be pretty excited if I were the Patriots looking at that kind of trajectory.

Starting point is 00:10:11 directory. Speaking of not guaranteeing something, we're not guaranteeing a thing. But next, I will tell you why I love the Pat's postseason path more and more as I think about it. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Finding a doctor you actually like can feel like discovering a diamond in the rough. You want someone in network nearby with availability. But you also want a doctor. You want a doctor. a doctor who really listens, makes you feel comfortable, explains things clearly, and helps you walk out, feeling confident about your next step. Your diamond in the rough, that doctor exists and finding them as easy with Zoc Doc.

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Starting point is 00:13:07 Click that thumbs up. Give us a like. It helps us with the YouTube algorithm. Don't forget to throw a comment in as well. I think Drake May is the MVP, and I've said that multiple times, but I'm just moving on from that conversation. I want to know how you feel about his 2025 regular season. I think we just witnessed an elite season from your second year quarterback.

Starting point is 00:13:27 One of the best quarterbacked seasons in Patriots history, which means that much more because Tom Brady was a Patriot. Don't forget to like, comment. Don't forget to subscribe. Let me just say this. My anxiety is always high when we get to the postseason. Now, I have anxiety every single day. But when we talk about any kind of local team getting to the playoffs,

Starting point is 00:13:54 that anxiety is through the roof. My anxiety for this 2025 postseason for the Patriots, technically 2026. the anxiety levels high. I don't want to sit here and tell you that I'm taking anything for granted because I am not taking anything for granted. I am as paranoid as any New England fan.

Starting point is 00:14:17 But looking at the path for the Patriots, now that we know what it is in this postseason, relatively speaking, relatively speaking, I absolutely love the Patriots path to the AFC championship game. If they can get there, I love the path. I love the path that they have in front of them.

Starting point is 00:14:40 I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm not telling you they're going to get to the AFC championship game. I'm just telling you that all things considered, the Patriots path to that game sets up very, very well. Let's begin with the number one thing that we learned on Sunday night when the Patriots are actually going to host the Chargers. And as we know now, the Patriots will play the Chargers on Sunday night on NBC. Now, what does this mean?

Starting point is 00:15:12 It means that you have your typical rhythm. It means that you have your typical prep process. The Patriots played on Sunday afternoon, late in the afternoon. They could have been given the Saturday night game or the Saturday day game. And now you're working on a short week. Patriots, they haven't played the Chargers this year. of course this works for the charges as well they haven't played the Patriots so this gives you the full allotment that you usually get on a normal work week quote unquote to scout the opposition figure out what they do well what they don't do well turn over every single rock and for the Patriots it also means that they're going to have their regular rhythm which I think is important when you look at you know how they handle things on the minibos

Starting point is 00:16:02 against Cincinnati, when you look at the second half against Buffalo and how that thing kind of unfolded after the buy week and kind of the slow start that you see from teams sometimes when they have that week off, to be in that rhythm, to just continue to move along. Pick up what the coaches are putting down. You can go through your regular schedule. You get your treatment.

Starting point is 00:16:29 You get the game plan. You've got your meetings. everything. Everything is set. And everybody is used to that routine. And I think that's important. Also, thanks to the NFL for scheduling this game on Sunday night in New England, in January. Because even if it's not, you know, five degrees or below zero, the L.A. Chargers are going to have to fly across the country and then play a primetime game on Sunday night in the Northeast winter cold. Chargers are not used to that.

Starting point is 00:17:09 I think that's an advantage for the Patriots and the primetime crowd. I know Mike Vrable said this on Sports Radio W. EEI on Monday on the Greg Hill show talking about, yeah, get there early, be there all day, get ready. Back in the day, we'd say get lubed up to say prime time crowd. People are going to be very loud and probably. pretty feisty. So the fact that this Chargers game is on a Sunday night, I like it for all of those reasons. I also like the fact that you're playing the Chargers. And we will obviously dive deeper into this matchup all week long here on Lockdown Patriots, but the Chargers are the most banged up team when you look around the other teams that you could have ended up

Starting point is 00:17:54 playing. As many of you know, the Chargers are without their starting tackles. They're done for the season for Sean Slater done did not even play a single game this year Joe all he's done for the year they've had all sorts of problems on the offensive line Justin Herbert has a fractured hand his left hand is fractured he's wearing that weird glove with extra padding so you're going against a team that has a banged up quarterback literally had surgery on his hand a few weeks ago without their starting tackles in the winter's night cold of the north on a Sunday night with your regular rhythm and your regular prep process in front of a very hot primetime crowd.

Starting point is 00:18:42 Some other reasons why I look at this path and I think it really fell together for the Patriots nicely, you're going against the Chargers who entering week 18 was 21st in runoffence DVOA. This is not a team that has run the football. consistently well this year. And as we know, the Patriots look better against the dolphins on Sunday, but the dolphins did not have Devon A-chan. You would think Milton Williams, he made a couple of plays.

Starting point is 00:19:09 Hopefully Robert Spillane is back. We'll see. Keep our fingers crossed. But still, if you wanted to look at these other teams, the Chargers rushing attack is much worse than most of the teams that are now, as Mike Vrable calls it, in the tournament. So that's also another reason why you should like that the Chargers fell to the seventh seed.

Starting point is 00:19:33 Patriots also dodge Josh Allen. And I know some people not afraid of the bills, they want to beat the bills, whatever. I want to stay away from Josh Allen. We've seen Josh Allen do heroic things way too many times for my liking. So you dodge Josh Allen until the AFC championship game. You don't have to worry about Josh Allen.

Starting point is 00:19:54 If the bills beat the Jags on Sunday afternoon, the bills will go to Denver. Denver gets the lowest remaining seed. If the Patriots beat the Chargers, the bills are the lowest remaining seed. So you don't have to worry about the Buffalo Bills until the AFC championship game. And if the bills end up beating the Broncos

Starting point is 00:20:12 or the Broncos, you know, slip up in some other way, if they don't have to face the bills and they just lose, but you win and you keep winning, you have the chance to host the AFC championship game. So really, when you look at the big picture and how things could have fallen for the Patriots,

Starting point is 00:20:31 how they could have unfolded, I think things worked out pretty, pretty, pretty well. And the path is clear. Now we'll see if the Patriots could execute and actually win some football games. Should be a lot of fun. The one possession, Drake May likely wants back in more all 22 takeaways next on Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Friday's already feel different during basketball season and Fandul is making them even better. Every Friday night before the games tip off, Fandul gives fans a new way to kick off the weekend with NBA Happy Hour.

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Starting point is 00:22:19 All right. I watched the All 22, some observations, some takeaways, some notes, some thoughts. Drake May was excellent. aside from the third possession of the game. And I thought during the third possession of the game, May got a little greedy. He passed up a checkdown to Ramandre Stevenson, which might have gotten him a first down.

Starting point is 00:22:40 He passed up Hunter Henry as well later on in that possession. He missed Pop Douglas deep downfield. So that play where he has Ramandre Stevenson, it's a first and 10, and it's, again, the third possession for the offense. in the first half. And Ramandre Stevenson is there for the checkdown. He's wide open, take the profit. And Drake May decides not to do that. And so he extends the play towards the sidelines. Pop Douglas actually frees himself. Nobody covers him. He's running down the sideline with his arm up and May just misses him. And then later on, you have an opportunity

Starting point is 00:23:16 to hit Hunter Henry, who would have likely had a first down, but May again throws a deep ball down the middle of the field, and the play was really never there. So I thought the third possession of the first half may got a little greedy, and he probably wants that drive back. Fourth possession, he also missed an open Kishan booty for a first down, ended up with a six-yard scramble. Now, a couple of nice plays, some of his best plays. The third and six scramble was huge.

Starting point is 00:23:49 That's the one where he stiff arms, the defensive end. he somehow, some way, gets away from that pass rush, gets six yards, moves the chains. Eventually, you get a touchdown, a ridiculous play by Drake May. Another ridiculous play is when Drake May evades two dolphins. So Ben Brown and Garrett Bradbury both literally fall down on this play. It's the end of the third quarter play, the chunk play to Stefan Diggs, where Drake May extends up into the pocket and while on the run kind of just rose it up to Stefan Diggs and Diggs gets that huge chunk play which gave him the incentive which I'm sure he's very happy about.

Starting point is 00:24:32 That was an unbelievable play by Drake May. But really just to one drive that third possession, a couple of bad decisions, but overall he was excellent. Anthony Jennings, I want to give Anthony Jennings some props. He starts the year with like no role on this football team. People think he might get traded. He might even get cut. but he plays hard on special teams when he was given a couple of opportunities sprinkled in some snaps.

Starting point is 00:24:58 I thought he made some plays when he was given few and far between opportunities. And now since replacing Harold Landry the past couple of weeks to get Harold Landry some rest, I think Anthony Jennings has made just impact play after impact play. I had him for a plus four overall against the dolphins on. Sunday. A couple of plays that stood out to me. He had the blitz pressure on fourth and one in the first quarter. That is the play where Jack Gibbons on the back of the end zone has the PBU, the past breakup. Jennings gets pressure initially on that play and shuts down where Quinn Ewers wants to go. And so that leads to the past breakup in a huge play on fourth and one. Dolphins get

Starting point is 00:25:47 nothing out of that drive. There was also the seven. seven-yard tackle for loss against Jalen Wright in the third quarter. So Anthony Jennings continues. I mean, you want to talk about consummate, professional, and somebody who's actually producing when given the opportunity, Anthony Jennings has done a really good job the past couple weeks. Ramandre Stevenson, I just want to nail down a couple of specifics here. We waxed poetic about Ramadre Stevenson in the live post game because he earned that.

Starting point is 00:26:15 He earned that. But the first two, the first two third quarter possessions, remandre stevenson was unreal the first possession of the third quarter uh there's a third and one conversion that's the 20 yard run on third and one there montford gets abused me he's just he doesn't get his block does not execute the block to put it lightly that is all remandre stevenson on that play uh he breaks a couple of initial tackles like at the line of scrimmage then then bounces it outside and gets 20 yards just a fantastic play And then later, of course, the third and three touchdown catch, which we talked about,

Starting point is 00:26:53 the slug-o route against Tyrell Dotson. He's wide open, and that gave the Patriots breathing room at 24 to 10. And then the second possession of the third quarter, Ramadre Stevenson, was as good if not better. First play of the possession. Hunter Henry gets 16 yards. Great job by Stevenson against a blitzer, bails away from the play action fake, and takes out the blitzer.

Starting point is 00:27:17 second and four from the Miami 41-yard line. Ben Brown misses his block. Somehow Ramandre Stevenson gets six yards, moves the chains. On the very next play, first and 10 from the Miami 35, that's the 35-yard touchdown run. Shout out to Jack Westover, Will Campbell, Michael Wenoo, and Ben Brown, who all had key blocks on that play. But I thought Ramandre Stevenson was awesome on Sunday, and I thought he was especially great in that third quarter.

Starting point is 00:27:49 Will Campbell. I thought Will Campbell played really well. First game back from IR. I had him down for two pressures, but I thought he was really good. I thought he was mostly really good in past protection. And I thought that he had two or three very good blocks in the run game. So Will Campbell, his movement looked fine.

Starting point is 00:28:08 He looked healthy. And I'm excited to see what he does on Sunday night against the Chargers in his first NFL playoff game. an overlooked play in the first half, Leonard Taylor. Now, Leonard Taylor showed up in that Jets game last week, and he also showed up against the dolphins on Sunday. He drew a hold, and this is when the Patriots were stopped on fourth and one, which, by the way, that fourth and one stop was on theremonford and Ben Brown.

Starting point is 00:28:35 Both guys just whiffed on their blocks. That play was D-O-A. It was dead on arrival. So the Patriots, they get stopped on fourth and one. The first play for the Dolphins, Leonard Taylor busts through the line of scrimmage, and he forces a holding call on Miami. That sets them back to a first and 20. The very next play, you get Jalen Wright's fumble. Good job by Christian Gonzalez on the edge, coming downhill.

Starting point is 00:29:01 Good job by Jack Gibbons, knocking the ball out. Of course, the Patriots recover. Great job by Elijah Ponder to scoop it with one hand. So an overlooked play is Leonard Taylor drawing that holding. penalty on the Dolphins right after the Patriots were stopped on that fourth and one. If you're wondering who messed up on third and 17 on that screenplay, it was man-to-man coverage, Marte Mapu.

Starting point is 00:29:26 It feels like almost once a week he messes up somehow, some way, loses the receiver, and gives up a chunk play, that 20-yard gain on third and 17 on that screen, that was Marte Mapu's fault. I also thought Craig Woodson and Carlton Davis on the rewatch. had a rough day. I thought that in real time watching it on TV, but watching the all 22, Craig Woodson had a terrible time tackling Carlton Davis. He got beat a number of times in coverage, had the defensive pass interference, gave up a third down at one point. He was lined up like 10, 11 yards off the receiver on like a third and seven. So I thought Craig Woodson and

Starting point is 00:30:08 Carlton Davis had a pretty tough day. But the interior defensive line popped. I thought Corey Durdon was good. I thought Milton Williams was good. I thought Christian Barmore was good. So those guys popped. And we'll see what they do against the Chargers that banged up offensive line. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit the like button and subscribe for us. Help a brother out. And if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy ask for the everydayer club add free episodes of this show exclusive discord server access

Starting point is 00:30:48 and more subscriptions can be gifted through lockdown patriots dot supercast.com have a great great day and we will see you next time

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Elite: Patriots’ Drake Maye Dominates 2025 | Schedule Myths Debunked

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