Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Exposed: Patriots’ A.J. Brown 2025 “Down Year” Explained—Truth Uncovered

Starting point is 00:00:00 There's no denying that AJ Brown did not produce in 2025 like he has in the past. But Brown himself is far from the only reason why that happened. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels.

Starting point is 00:00:32 On today's episode, our top quarterback wide receiver. rankings for 2026 and where Drake May and A.J. Brown end up. In the second segment, the addition of A.J. Brown creates a ripple effect in the wide receiver room. But first, let's examine Brown's 2025 and what caused him to have a quote unquote down year. Now, first, let's begin with the obvious. There is natural regression of a professional athlete as they age. A.J. Brown is going to be 29 years old in just a few weeks. We also know a about the knee condition, which we talked about in our last episode. But there's more to 2025 in what happened to A.J. Brown's numbers and productivity than just

Starting point is 00:01:15 Brown's age, Brown's knee, and Brown's attitude slash frustrations. In 2025, A.J. Brown had his lowest number of receptions and receiving yards in a season when he's played 15 or more games since his rookie year. He had 78 catches just past a thousand years. yards at 1003, which is the second lowest of his career. He had 869 yards in 2021, but that was in 13 games. And last year, he had seven touchdowns, which was the third straight season, which he finished with that number. Brown is not the same player.

Starting point is 00:01:53 And if you're expecting the AJ Brown from 2022, 2022, 2023, when he's racking up 1,400 yards, the capability of having more than 100 catches, I would find that to be unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely. When you watch A.J. Brown, he's not the same player he was a few years ago. Again, that should not be a secret. It should not be a mystery. It should not be unexpected.

Starting point is 00:02:20 He's aging, wear and tear, et cetera. But players, including Brown, especially Brown last year, players are impacted by their circumstances. What is their role? What is the scheme? you know, how reliant are they on other people's talents? And A.J. Brown was negatively impacted by Philadelphia's offense last season. There's no doubt in my mind that A.J. Brown, part of the decline that we saw in his counting stats, as they call them, right? The catches, the yards, the touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:02:56 You look at Philadelphia's offense, that was a major reason why Brown did not have the type of impact. that he usually has and has had throughout his NFL career. And it's not just me telling you this. The Eagles are telling you this because they decided to fire their offensive coordinator, Kevin Petulow, once the year was done. He's gone. Daniel Dopp of ESPN wrote this about Philadelphia's offense in 2025. Philadelphia ranked 23rd in passing yards,

Starting point is 00:03:28 had the fifth fewest completions, and ran the seventh fewest place. plays in 2025. This was not just an AJ Brown problem. This was an Eagles problem. This was an offensive problem. Jalen Hertz is an issue. Jalen Hertz is, you know, I know he won a Super Bowl. He got to another Super Bowl.

Starting point is 00:03:52 He's won a lot of games with the Eagles, but you and I know the questions about Jalen Hertz. Is he actually a franchise quarterback? Philadelphia is asking themselves that question, right now. And with Jalen Hertz and the way that Philadelphia has run their offense with him at quarterback, it's been risk averse, you know, staying away from the middle of the field. Sports Illustrated's Jeff Kerr wrote about this recently regarding Jalen Hertz and how he doesn't throw to the middle of the field very often. Here's what Kerr wrote. Hertz had just 28 attempts

Starting point is 00:04:27 between the hash marks last season. How does that compare to the rest of the NFL? That's 20. 28th in the league. Again, Jalen Hertz through 28 pass attempts between the hash marks last year. That was 28th in the league and the fewest amongst quarterbacks that played 14 plus games. You can go back to 2022. Since 2022, Hertz has thrown just 99 pass attempts between the hash marks. If you're wondering how that compares to Drake May, Drake May has thrown 100,1,000. passes between the hash marks in his two seasons. So Drake May has attempted more throws to the middle of the football field in his two years than Hertz attempted since 2022 through the 2025 season.

Starting point is 00:05:20 Hertz is also not as accurate as Drake May. Taylor Kyle's from CLNS posted. Brown is going from one of the NFL's least accurate quarterbacks to one of its most accurate. You look at, you know, accurate plus. statistic. Drake May, 19.4%. Jalen Hertz, 11.4%. Accurate, over 61%. Jalen Hertz, under 58%. Inaccurate passes. 20.3 for Drake May, 22.0 for Hertz. Uncatchable passes. 18.2 for May, 20.4 for Hertz. Drake May, according to Taylor Kyle's per pro football focus, Drake May, is among the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL with a minimum of 300 attempts when you look at accurate.

Starting point is 00:06:12 Plus, accurate and uncatchable football. He is one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. And Jalen Hertz is not. And when you're inaccurate, that is certainly going to impact your receiver's production. Let's get back to Kevin Petulow, though, because it's not just about Jalen Hertz. did not have AJ Brown running his favorite most effective routes as much as AJ Brown had run those routes in prior years. Pro football focus in 2024, AJ Brown's three best routes that he ran, okay?

Starting point is 00:06:51 22.4% were slants, 12.9% were digs, 11.9% were outs. When you look at pro football focus in the routes that AJ Brown ran, in the last season. Again, his best route in 2024 was the slant route. Last year, that percentage of slant route went from 22.4% down to 11.4%. A.J. Brown ran only 55 slants. Kevin Petulow cut A.J. Brown's slant route percentage almost in half. You can look at 65 in-routes run by A.J. Brown.

Starting point is 00:07:31 That includes dig routes. Dig routes, 13.5%. Total routes. The total routes, when you look at in-routes, almost the same as digs in 2024. You look at out-routes. Kevin Petulow cut A.J. Brown's out-rout percentage in half, from 24 to 25.

Starting point is 00:07:54 So you could look at what A.J. Brown does effectively as a wide receiver. You could look at his route tree. in the Eagles called less of those routes for A.J. Brown last year. Speaking of slants and outs, Brown is going to be a huge help for Drake May. Here's what Pro Football Focus wrote on Drake May and A.J. Brown's route usage. Since 2019, Brown's 97.3 receiving grade on slants is tops in football. It was ninth in 2025 and is 125.25 receptions from slant. routes are the most in the NFL by over 40. That's since 2019. Although May through the sixth most

Starting point is 00:08:36 slants last season, he ranked only 24th in Pro Football Focus's passing grade. And New England's wide outs were 28th when it came to receiving on slant routes. So the Patriots, they called a lot of slant routes. Drake May threw a lot of slant routes. But Drake May was 24th in his passing grade and the receivers were 28th in their receiving grade on slant routes. Now you're bringing one of the best in the NFL when it comes to running the slant. Outrout. Drake May threw an outrout on 17.9% of his targets. 59.7 passing grade ranked him 39th out of 50 qualifiers. But much of that, as PFF writes, could stem from Patriots receivers owning the 29th ranked receiving grade on such concept.

Starting point is 00:09:29 Now, A.J. Brown last year wasn't great when you look at outrouts, 39th among 50 qualifiers in a receiving grade, but he's actually tied for seventh when you look at receiving grade on outroutes since 2019. So historically, Brown's been great when quarterbacks throw him outroutes. So Drake May threw a lot of slants, through a lot of outs, wasn't necessarily great in either of those, but you could look at the receivers and blame them for some of that, most of that, and now you're bringing A.J. Brown in,

Starting point is 00:10:07 who has majored in those types of routes. One last nugget on A.J. Brown in 2025 and how he was predictably used by the Eagles offense. Taylor Kyle's notes that A.J. Brown lined up wide. So outside X boundary, he lined up 88% of the time out wide. He lined up only 12.4% in the slot, which was a career low. And again, this is a guy who does damage out of the slot.

Starting point is 00:10:37 This is a guy who does damage in the middle of the football field. And you can look at the Eagles. You know, they didn't play A.J. Brown in the slot a ton, even though Taylor Kyle's mentions A.J. Brown ranked eighth in yards per route run, and he was tied for the fifth highest target rate from the slot among wide receivers last season. So not only historically has he loved to run slants and produced big time in slant routes. And not only did Philadelphia drop his slant routes and dropped him down as far as slot percentage as well, A.J. Brown was producing.

Starting point is 00:11:21 Like when they put him in the slot, he was a top. 10 wide receiver. But for some reason, they put him in the slot only 12.4% of the time, which was, again, a career low. And back in 2024, you're running 22.4% slants. And then you're cutting that mostly in half. So you start to look at how the player was used and the routes that he ran and what he's good at and how they utilized him. It's mind boggling when you look at some of these numbers. So yeah, 2025, natural regression. Brown's going to be 29. The Patriots have to take care of, have to manage the knee. But I'm not going to sit there and ignore the fact that quarterback play was not good. His usage was terrible. And the play calling was borderline atrocious, which led to his

Starting point is 00:12:15 frustration, which also hurt his performance. And when you look forward now to 2026, he has a better quarterback. He has a much better offensive coordinator. He is going to be playing in a place that he wants to play for a coach that he wants to play for. So I do think there's more left in the tank. And I do think that what we saw last year had a lot to do about things outside of A.J. Brown's control. Coming up, the domino effect of adding Brown to the wide receiver room. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now, the number one's Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp.

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Starting point is 00:14:10 You've got to go back to Randy Moss, West Welker, and A.J. Brown's edition will profoundly impact everyone else at that position in 2026. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Get your daily Patriots fix completely add free by joining the Everydayer Club today. Start your seven-day free trial right now and get closer to your team without the interruptions. Click the link in the show notes or go to lockdown patriots. Dot supercast.com to claim your free trial.

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Starting point is 00:14:50 Let's get there. Appreciate every single one of you. AJ Brown's impact goes beyond the individual and the quarterback. He is going to have a significant impact. in the room. And I said this before the Patriots completed their trade for AJ Brown. AJ Brown slots everyone in that room accordingly. It all makes sense. It all falls together. No longer are you looking at Romeo Dobbs as your number one guy. You are looking at him as the quintessential, as I've called him, number two receiver. It's perfect for that role. No longer are you

Starting point is 00:15:28 looking at Mack Hollins or Kishon Booty or Kyle Williams to possibly climb up and be your number two guy. You're now looking at Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams to battle it out as the number three. You're no longer worried about Efton Chisholm and Pop Douglas and, you know, how many snaps are they going to get? And can Efton Chisholm make a huge leap and prove to be a number three guy? You're not really worried about that right now. You're more looking at Efton Chisholm and Pop Douglas. as who can be the fourth or maybe fifth receiver. Now, I still believe Kisham Bouty is going to be traded. I think he gets dealt before the season.

Starting point is 00:16:07 I know there are Patriots fans who are upset with that idea. I can't tell you that I truly get that because I don't really get it. You brought in A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown and Kishan Booty, very redundant. A.J. Brown is going to do what Kishan Booty was doing last year, and he is just a massive upgrade over Kishon Booty. Kishan Bouti is walking into his contract season. He's going to want opportunity.

Starting point is 00:16:34 And so what's best for Kishan Bouti is to move him to a team where he's going to get more of that opportunity. And what's best for the Patriots is to trade Kishan Bouti and get some draft capital back since you just dealt two picks for A.J. Brown. It just doesn't make any sense. I don't see where Kishan Bouty fits with this offense. I don't see where he fits in the room. Yes, he could be security for AJ Brown or somebody else, but you're not going to hold on to the guy when you could get a pick for him and you feel like you have plenty in the room to replace his productivity.

Starting point is 00:17:11 He's a good number three receiver, maybe number four, depending on how deep your wide receiver room is. That's what Kashan Bouti is. And that's great for him because a lot of people did not think he was going to be an NFL receiver. Improps to him for straining out his life and figuring out how to play the game of football without his explosiveness that he once had. I give him a ton of credit for that. But I just don't see any room for Kashan Booty on this football team.

Starting point is 00:17:38 I think he's going to be dealt. I think the Patriots are waiting it out to see what's the best offer they can get. But back to AJ Brown's impact, he brings confidence to the wide receiver room. Everyone in there knows he's legit. Everybody knows that he has legitimately been one of the best receivers. in football for the last several years. Everybody in that room understands that he has won a championship, that he has gone to another Super Bowl.

Starting point is 00:18:08 He's been part of a lot of winning in Philadelphia. And so he brings that confidence, he brings that swag, and everybody knows. Everybody knows it. He doesn't have to sit there and talk about it. He knows. He knows and they know. And he brings a different brand of football. That's what I love the most, I think, about this move, is just his mentality, his physicality, right?

Starting point is 00:18:34 I've called him a bully on the football field. That's what he is. He is a bully on the field. He will be physical with you. He will out muscle you. He will box you out. And that's why he is fantastic when it comes to contested catches. The toughness on those contested catches, the physicality on those contested catches.

Starting point is 00:18:56 what he does in the red zone. You just did not have a wide receiver that checked as many boxes as AJ Brown checks. And there were a specific set of needs. I think that this team needed that wide receiver. And you got those needs filled by the acquisition of Brown. Another part of this is you don't have to rely on Kyle Williams making a leap. Now, of course, it'd be great news if he did make a leap, if he leap frogs, Mac Hollins,

Starting point is 00:19:29 and you've got Kyle Williams as your number three receiver. But without A.J. Brown, you were looking at, you know, Mac Hollins, Kishon, Booty, Kyle Williams, one of those guys showing up to be your number two. I am much, much more confident and much, much more optimistic that Kyle Williams could end up being a number three receiver by the end of this year than that number two guy. Now, it doesn't mean he can't. Again, of course he can. Of course, he might leapfrog.

Starting point is 00:19:59 He could leapfrog Romeo Dobbs and just explode. I don't expect that to happen. But you don't need it to happen now. And you could have argued that you needed Kyle Williams to take a big step forward in 2026 if you wanted the most out of this offense and you wanted the most out of Drake May. You are now less reliant on Hunter Henry as well. You don't have to ask for so much from Hunter Henry, because you have A.J. Brown, who can be that possession type of receiver at times to go along with

Starting point is 00:20:31 Romeo Dobbs, who could just eat up yards in the middle of the football field and underneath. Now you're less reliant on Hunter Henry. You know, a big third down. We saw it. You had it with Stefan Diggs last year, right? You could get it to Diggs on third down. He would find a way you could get it to him, a lot of big catches for him on third down last year. Some catches on fourth down. Well, obviously, digs right now, not on the roster. So if you did not bring A.J. Brown into the fold, you know, you were looking at Hunter Henry again being one of those guys on third down. Where are we going, Hunter? Where are we going, Hunter? Now, Romeo Dobbs might have helped, but A.J. Brown helps even more. You are less reliant on Henry to get those tough yards as well,

Starting point is 00:21:14 which should help his body throughout 2026. In A.J. Brown, in Kyle Williams and in Romeo Dobbs, a lot of these guys, Mac Hollins, you can move them around. Even Pop Douglas, you can move them around. Now, Pop a little less so because he's smaller in the frame, but you could look at a lot of these receivers, almost every single guy you can move around. And that will make Josh McDaniels

Starting point is 00:21:40 an even more dangerous offensive coordinator and play caller because he will have the capability of moving all of these chest pieces. And that will set up the defense to give up some big, plays that will set up the defense to give up big plays on play action. McDaniels can roll out big personnel and not lose a lot with the big personnel receiving wise because of A.J. Brown. It just makes everything, everything better. A.J. Brown's inclusion with this wide receiver room, it just all kind of falls together,

Starting point is 00:22:16 as I said. It just all makes sense. He brings a different element to the Patriots past game. And I was saying this beforehand, even before Josh McDaniels had said it to the media. But, you know, the physicality and the bullying and how the contested catches and how AJ Brown will, you know, beat up on press man coverage at times, it does remind you of Grunkowski, that Rob Grunkowski physical force on the field as a pass catcher. A.J. Brown is that type of cat. He has that type of thing. physical force of nature that you haven't had since Rob Gruncowski left the team. Coming up, ranking Drake May and A.J. Brown among the rest of the NFL and the latest on Gabe

Starting point is 00:23:06 Akis's status. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Support for today's episode comes from Square, the business platform that helps sellers become neighborhood favorites, whether you're gearing up for a busy season or just trying to keep up with everyday demand. Square keeps your business running smoothly from payments to online orders, inventory staff, and more, all in one place so you can focus on your customers, not your to do list. Square helps businesses simplify the day-to-day while still giving them room to grow. If there's a place, you might hit up all the time and you always notice how fast and painless it is to pay, no fumbling, no waiting, that's Square. Square helps you run your business more

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Starting point is 00:24:37 We'll have the very latest on the rookie defense event. Thanks for checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe if you're watching us on YouTube. A.J. Brown is the best wide receiver talent the Patriots have had since Randy Moss. And even better, he wanted to be in New England. He wanted to play for the Patriots. I mean, that's just a different type of feeling, right? That one of the best wide receivers that are available actually wanted to play in New England with the Patriots. It's the Mike Grable factor. It's the Drake May factor. And of course, AJ Brown, as we know, we've talked about plenty of

Starting point is 00:25:19 times grew up as a Patriots fan. That helps as well. But when you look at Drake May and A.J. Brown, I believe they are a top three quarterback wide receiver one combo in football. I believe they're top three. Now, let's run through some of the list. You have a section of great wide receivers with questionable quarterbacks, right? You've got Justin Jefferson.

Starting point is 00:25:43 Tremendous, tremendous wide receiver. But are you taking Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy over Drake May? No. Jackson Smith and Jigba. Now, this might be polarizing for some people, but are you taking Sam Donald over Drake May? No, I don't think there is a single personnel executive in the NFL that would take Sam Donald over Drake May. And I know what happened in the Super Bowl, but Drake May wasn't defended by Sam Donald. If you put Drake May on the Seahawks and Sam Donald on the Patriots, the Seahawks might actually beat the Patriots by even more. I mean, give Jackson Smith and Jigba to Drake May.

Starting point is 00:26:22 Give that defense to Drake May where, you know, imagine Sam Donald behind the Patriots offensive line and how those guys performed in the Super Bowl. That would be a nightmare. Catastrophic. How about Philadelphia? Devante Smith, good receiver, number one guy. We talked about it in the first segment, Drake May over Jalen Hertz. Then you have great quarterbacks with not as talented receivers.

Starting point is 00:26:48 Patrick Mahomes. quarterback. I do think he has had some decline in his game over the past couple of years, but he's still really good. Rishi Rice, can't trust him. Josh Allen, I'm taking A.J. Brown over DJ Moore. Lamar Jackson, I'm absolutely taking A.J. Brown over Zay Flowers. And then you've got some close calls. You could easily look at Dallas and say, Nick, what about D. Prescott and C.D. Lamb? I'm taking Drake May over Dak Prescott. You could say, Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud in Houston. Well, after last postseason, I'm absolutely taking Drake May over C.J. Stroud. I mean, if we're going tit for tat here and you say, yeah, but the wide receiver is better than

Starting point is 00:27:31 AJ Brown and, you know, how much difference is there between the quarterback? I would answer it simply. What's more important to have the better quarterback or the better wide receiver? It's to have the better quarterback. The other top two combos to me, Matthew Stafford and Pooka Nukua with the Rams in Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase in Cincinnati. But I believe Drake May, A.J. Brown, top three quarterback wide receiver one combination on paper heading into 2026. All right. Mike Reese was on the Patriots real-time podcast discussing Gabe Accus. Accus has not been on the field for OTAs. Here's what Mike Reese said about Gabe back.

Starting point is 00:28:14 Quote, I was told by someone that I feel like would have the information that he'd be back soon. I don't sense that this is any major alarm, unquote. Reese also pointed out that Gabe Accus dealt with a hamstring during Illinois's pro day, which led to Gabacchus having like a one-off with teams at another date. And Reese said that his hunch is the Patriots want to make sure Gabacus is right for when things pick up. Manitory minicamp is next week. And then you've got camp, joint practices, preseason, all that stuff. If that's what's going on, it's smart. A soft tissue injuries, we've talked about it, the soft tissue issue, soft tissue injuries, they linger. And you

Starting point is 00:29:03 want gaybackers to hit the ground running and then just roll into 2026 in that season, right? So if there's any question about, oh, your hamstring, it's nagging you a little bit. We don't really need you, Gabe, for OTAs. This is voluntary. We don't need to throw you out there. If we throw you out there and you re-injure the hamstring, it's a disaster. So let's just pump the brakes. Let's wait until we'll see if he's out there for mandatory mini camp,

Starting point is 00:29:28 but let's wait until things truly ramp up and we can get you out there on the field. Now, with Gabe Accus's work ethic, I am optimistic. He will be ready from a playbook standpoint. I think he will know exactly what the coaches are asking of him. and what they expect from him. I would still say, though, because it's a hamstring and because Harold Landry is an unknown, I still would like adding a veteran defense event.

Starting point is 00:29:57 I don't know if I'm super confident Bankingon Jesse Lucetta or Braden Swinson or Quintavius Hutchins. I'm not really optimistic or confident about those guys stepping up if you need them to step up as a top four defensive end on this roster. So I would still like to see the Patriots. at a veteran at that position. Jeremy Fowler recently of ESPN, he actually named the Patriots as a possible landing spot

Starting point is 00:30:23 for the Giants, Kavon-Tibodeau. He's an interesting name. We've discussed him on prior podcasts. I would absolutely be intrigued. The question is, what would it cost you? And I don't buy into the whole Kayshan Bouti, Kavon-Tibodeo idea because the Giants have Malik neighbors. They just drafted Malachi Fields in this past draft.

Starting point is 00:30:45 They have Darius Slayton, a good receiver. And then they went out this week and signed OBJ, Juju Smith, Schuster, Braxton Berrios. Now, I don't think any of those guys are going to rock the world, right, rock the boat in any kind of way. But they could be a debt piece. If one of those guys works out, you now have four wide receivers with Malikai Fields and Darius Slayton. Now, of course, Malik neighbors had a cleanup procedure after the initial injury. So if he's not going to be around for a while, that might change the math on that. But I was, like to add a veteran defense event.

Starting point is 00:31:18 All right. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Thank you for making us your first listen for being an everydayer. Like, comment, subscribe on the YouTube channel. And if you never miss an episode, check out the Everydayer Club. Head to LockdownPatriots.com. Add free episodes, members only Discord access, and more.

Starting point is 00:31:38 Check the link in the show notes to learn even more. Have a great weekend. And we will see you next time. What a big week this has been. Thank you.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Exposed: Patriots’ A.J. Brown 2025 “Down Year” Explained—Truth Uncovered

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