Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Feared: Patriots’ A.J. Brown Shatters Expectations in Latest WR Rankings

Starting point is 00:00:00 I thought I had high expectations for AJ Brown's 2026, but the latest rankings from ESPN and pro football focus might leave you shocked. This is Locked on Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. It's happening. I am your host of Nick Cattels on today's episode. One well-known analyst lists his past catching team.

Starting point is 00:00:35 tears. And shocker, I disagree with them. In the second segment, one of the most important words about this offense is stability. But first, if you thought you were excited about AJ Brown, just wait. I'm on record. The AJ Brown is set to have a very productive season. I believe, if I remember correctly, my projection for AJ Brown this upcoming season, 85 catches, 1,200 yards, 10 touchdowns. That is a very productive, very good season from a guy. who is now 29 years old. I said during my projection episode, my prediction episode of what A.J. Brown's 2026 would look like, that I still consider A.J. Brown a top 12 to 15 receiver just on the outside of the top 10.

Starting point is 00:01:22 Apparently, I might not be giving A.J. Brown enough credit. Pro football focus released their wide receiver rankings for this upcoming season. Dalton Wasserman and Max Chadwick had A.J. Brown as the sixth best receiver in all of football. Here's what they wrote. Brown posted his sixth 1,000-yard season in seven years. He has proven to be as sure-handed as any receiver in football, dropping just 2.9% of his catchable targets over the past two seasons.

Starting point is 00:01:54 Now, if you're wondering who was actually ranked ahead of A.J. Brown by pro football focus, Pooka, Jackson Smith and Jigba. Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Amonrae St. Brown. So those are the five receivers that were ranked ahead of A.J. Brown. Pro football focus going into this season is ranking A.J. Brown close to an elite guy. I've talked about elite, talked about the word, and how I consider elite as truly elite and not to bunch up like eight to 10 guys out of position, I think elite is usually top three or so depending on said position.

Starting point is 00:02:42 So if you're looking at A.J. Brown and Pro Football Focus is ranking him sixth. I mean, he's just on the outside of being considered an elite receiver by PFF. If you're wondering who is behind A.J. Brown in these rankings, Pro Football Focus has him ahead of C.D. Lamb. They have him ahead of Nico Collins. They have him ahead of George Pickens. They have him ahead of Drake London. But the PFF piece is done by two writers.

Starting point is 00:03:14 And we've had some beef in the past with pro football focus rankings. I mean, they ranked Drake May as the ninth best quarterback heading into the season. ESPN and Jeremy Fowler's poll of NFL executives and coaches and scouts. They continue to run their positional series. And I've had some beef with their rankings, some questionable rankings in my eyes. But at least you could say the ESPN straw poll is from within the NFL, guys that are in the league, coaches, executives, scouts. We're talking coordinators. We're talking personnel decision makers.

Starting point is 00:03:55 So how does the NFL feel about A.J. Brown and Jeremy Fowler released his wide receiver rankings list on Wednesday. A.J. Brown was ninth. The highest ranking, this is interesting, the highest ranking from a voter actually put A.J. Brown sixth in the league, which of course matches what PFF has him at. The lowest ranking was unranked. And again, look, somebody voted, you know, for Drake May to not be ranked as well. So take that for what it's worth. It could be one person, could be two people, but the lowest ranking was unranked. The highest ranking was sixth. Now, last year's ranking for A.J. Brown, before 2025 kicked off, this same straw poll from Jeremy Fowler of ESPN had A.J. Brown ranked fifth.

Starting point is 00:04:51 An NFL coordinator in this story said the following about Brown. Quote, he changes the coverages people play. Everything will be rolled his way and it will lighten the box for Josh McDaniels to really get the run game going. He gives them run after catch explosion and isolation down the field on 50-50 plays they didn't have. That is an NFL coordinator telling you that AJ. Brown still dictates coverage. So no matter what you've read, no matter what you've heard from pundits, analysts, this is an NFL coordinator saying, yeah, he still dictates coverage.

Starting point is 00:05:34 He is still going to change the coverage that defenses play. Defenses will still roll pretty much everything towards his way, towards his spot on the field. And so when you look at this, this is the NFL telling you that, hey, man, A.J. Brown is still somebody that can dictate what we're going to do on a Sunday. And that means opportunities for other receivers, opportunities for tight ends, opportunities for running backs. Because if he is dictating coverage and you do feel like at least from time to time, you've got to put double coverage on him and shade him with a safety, that's going to open up opportunities for everybody else. We talk about opening up the underneath of the field, right?

Starting point is 00:06:24 Those short to intermediate passes that we have talked about recently on this podcast. Well, if you've got A.J. Brown, and he's demanding double coverage, and he's clearing some of that stuff out, it just makes it easier for Drake May. And as the coordinator said, the fact that everything is going to roll A.J. Brown's way That will light in the box for that run game to get going for the Patriots and Josh McDaniels. Now, Brown showed up on about 50% of the ballots, according to Jeremy Fowler, which, yeah, that tells you not everybody is running scared. But the fact that he showed up on about 50% of the ballots being a top 10 guy, that means there is still a level of fear that A.J. Brown brings to defensive coordinators. at least half the league that was taking part in this Jeremy Fowler straw poll,

Starting point is 00:07:23 at least half the league believes that you've got a game plan for A.J. Brown, that your work week consists of what are we going to do against him on Sunday? And even if he is not that guy to everybody, as they say, perception is reality. And the fact that A.J. Brown, at least the perception of around 50% of these people that were in this straw pole, at least 50% with the perception of he's still that type of guy, that means you're still going in on Sunday with a game plan against A.J. Brown, and that game plan likely includes shading a safety over to his side. When he's lined up on the boundary, all eyes on that cat.

Starting point is 00:08:06 So that fear might not be through and through 100% across the league with everybody, but that fear still exists. in the league regarding A.J. Brown's ability to impact a football game. And this ranking, it does also, let's be fair, it does show the decline we've discussed. You know, last year he was ranked fifth. This year he's ranked ninth. So, you know, going into 2025, A.J. Brown was considered one of the top handful of receivers in football, even closer. to that elite status within the league. And now he is down to night,

Starting point is 00:08:51 which begs a lot of the questions that we've asked, right? Half step slower, maybe taking a half a step back. Maybe it was Philadelphia, the things that we have discussed as soon as he was acquired, some of the things that impacted A.J. Brown with that offense and the play calling and the quarterback, yada, yada. But he has taken a step back. He went from fifth last year to ninth, but still, still considered a top 10 guy. And that might make some of you feel better about giving up that first round pick in 2028, even though I was fine with it from the beginning.

Starting point is 00:09:28 One last thing. The style of play in A.J. Brown's strengths, those opened the door to him aging well. because when you read what the coordinator says, right, isolation downfield on 50, 50 plays that they didn't have. And then you look at what Jeremy Fowler wrote about A.J. Brown, which is no player has more catches, 88, and receiving yards, 1812, on tight window passes, which is less than one yard of separation from a defender at the arrival of the past. since entering the NFL in 2019, then Brown. So Brown is the best receiver when it comes to tight window throws. That's per next-gen stats, which is why I think that style of play, his strengths. They open the door for him to age well, for him to inevitably, maybe not be as explosive,

Starting point is 00:10:31 but at least be the possession type receiver that can still hurt you a la Antoine Bolden. So it was a good day. It was a good day on Wednesday regarding A.J. Brown's reputation throughout the NFL. And it should make you feel even more confident about what he is capable of doing in 2026, especially with this offensive coordinator and this quarterback. Coming up, the Pats represent one of the more unique offensive situations in the league. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team.

Starting point is 00:11:08 every day. Today's episode is sponsored by Square. If you've ever tapped to pay and thought, man, that was quick. It was probably Square. Whether you're selling lattes, cutting hair, running a packed game day spot, or managing a design studio, Square helps you run your business without running yourself into the ground. Square is the platform behind the scenes of so many businesses you already love. One connected system to take payments, manage inventory, run payroll, and track it all in one

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Starting point is 00:12:32 Don't forget, if you want to help us out on YouTube, I hope you do. Click that thumbs up. Give us a like. Give us a comment. Want your thoughts? Pro football focus. ranking AJ Brown sixth in the NFL at wide receiver this year. NFL executives, coaches, and scouts in the ESPN Jeremy Fowler Strawpole,

Starting point is 00:12:51 ranking A.J. Brown 9th. How do you feel about those two rankings? Let me know, throw a comment in. And don't forget, my friend, to subscribe to this channel. We've discussed Josh McDaniel's stability as an offensive coordinator in what it means for Drake May in this offense. But what we haven't discussed, disgust is how much of an advantage that stability is within the NFL. Adam Schaefter back in February, yes, I've had this in my back pocket for quite a long time. Back in February, February 20th, Adam Schaefter posted, there are 21 NFL teams that will have new offensive coordinators for the upcoming season. 21. 21 of the 32 NFL teams will have new OCs in 2026.

Starting point is 00:13:51 That includes the Tennessee Titans, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Detroit Lions. You want to talk about massive turnover at a coordinator position. Look at this league and look on the office. side of the ball. You know, the NFL's fascination with young offensive minds that was only boosted by Sean McVeigh's success. And you look at Liam Cohen's success last year with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The league is fascinated. I would say they are obsessed with finding the next young offensive mind to run their team. That's one of the reasons why hiring Mike Rable was a fascinating move by the Patriots. And at the time, you can go back. Even back in 2024, I wanted them to hire Mike Vrable. Yes, it goes against the grain, but the Patriots hired the best guy they thought

Starting point is 00:14:51 was available for the job. And based on the first season, I'd say things went pretty, pretty, pretty well. But that's really going against what the league is doing now. The league is so heavy on trying to find the next guy with the slicked back hair and the khakis who can call offensive plays. And you see that. And even if it's not, you know, at the head coach spot, it's, well, that guy didn't work. Let's get rid of him. Let's bring somebody new in.

Starting point is 00:15:26 And it's also when you have 21 new offensive coordinators, it's an amazing number. It tells us that, yeah, you have a number of offensive. coordinators that are getting those head coaching jobs, as I just mentioned, right? So it's almost like a conveyor belt of young offensive minds. You develop one, you promote that one, that one does a good job, that one gets hired by another NFL team as the head coach, start the process all over again. Grab that young guy you have developed, put him on that conveyor belt. If he does a good job, he moves on to another team, you get the picture.

Starting point is 00:16:06 you just hire the next guy to hold that OC title and that guy could move forward. But because of offensive coordinators getting hired by so many teams now, then that also means teams are looking for the next big thing, whether that's within their team or hiring somebody from the outside. So that's why you have so many different guys at that position of offensive coordinator in 2026. You also have the guys that went through that system, that went through that cycle, that were brought in, developed, plopped into a spot, moved on to be a head coach, didn't work out. Now back to being an offensive coordinator. Mike McDaniel fits that category.

Starting point is 00:16:57 Brian Dayball, even Matt Nagy, you can go back years ago. Those guys, they were seen as the next big thing, the offensive play caller that was going to help the quarterback. Mike McDaniel was going to help Tuatunga Viola be a franchise guy. Brian Dayball was going to help whoever was with the Giants. And so that didn't work out. They go back to being OCs. That's why you have so much turnover.

Starting point is 00:17:24 I mean, only 34% of the league this season will have the same offensive scheme play caller or offensive coordinator. Because of course, not all OCs actually call the plays. But only 34% will have that cohesiveness from 2025 into 2026. Advantage Patriots. Patriots are one of those teams. Patriots are in the minority.

Starting point is 00:17:58 They are a part of that 34%. So you've got 66% of the league. having some type of significant change on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Patriots, they're bringing everybody back. Josh McDaniels, glad to have you. Thomas Brown, glad to have you. Todd Downing, glad to have you. Doug Marone, glad to have you.

Starting point is 00:18:23 Ashton Grant, glad to have you. And here's the thing, too, Josh McDaniels, the O.C. position, that's not the only sign of stability for this New England offense, because, of course, they have Drake May. Bert Breer back in March, March 11th posted. With the release of Kyler Murray, just three of the 29 first round quarterbacks drafted in the second decade of this millennium, 2010 to 2019, remain with the teams that took them. Those three are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Starting point is 00:19:01 Think of how much those teams have won, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Think about how much those teams have won with those quarterbacks. Every other quarterback that was taken in the first round from 2010 to 2019, no longer with their original team. So if you have Josh McDaniels and this offensive staff coming back, which is a rarity for 2026, and then you have the quarterback that you drafted back in 2024, really trying to solidify himself 10 tones down as, you know, a, franchise quarterback, what you have is stability.

Starting point is 00:19:42 And when you look around the league, you do not have a lot of stability between the offensive coordinator and the quarterback. Hitting on the quarterback back in 2024 to go along with Josh McDaniels, very likely staying on board for the next at least couple of years, if not number of years, means a significant long-term advantage for the Patriots versus most of the teams in the league. And this is why you can go back to all the conversations I had when the Patriots hired Josh McDaniels

Starting point is 00:20:20 as to why I thought it was a great hire. This is one of the reasons, one of the reasons why. The latest analyst that is a little too low on the Patriots. It's coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockedown. Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks for checking out the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network.

Starting point is 00:20:54 Don't forget to help a brother out, like, comment, and subscribe. Lots of rankings talk over the past couple of weeks. We started this episode with the ranking of AJ Brown and Pro Football Focus and ESPN's latest. And when you look at the most talented pass catchers since 20, 2018, where would, you know, where would you put A.J. Brown and where would you put Romeo Dobbs and where would you put Hunter Henry and where would you put the combination of those guys, right? Where do the Patriots, where do they stack up at pass catcher against the rest of the NFL? Because you can go back to 2018. And I believe that this is the most talented. set of past catchers the Patriots have had since then. Of course, A.J. Brown, he got into the league in 2019, Romeo Dobbs even younger.

Starting point is 00:21:57 But you can go back several years and you could try to figure out best past catching tandums and what works for certain teams and who's more productive than other teams and all that stuff. individually the Patriots, I would say best group since 2018, and I've said that multiple times. But what about the rest of the NFL? Well, let's look at Warren Sharp. Warren Sharp is one of the best analysts that is out there.

Starting point is 00:22:24 And he ranked his tiers, his wide receiver slash tight end tears, right? His pass catcher tears. And Warren Sharp had 15 teams ahead of the Patriots, 15 teams. So according to Warren Sharp, he thinks the Patriots are smack dab in the middle of the league as far as wide receiver and tight end combination. Now, I will look at some of these teams and say, obviously, they are in a better position than the Patriots. Cincinnati, obviously, Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Mike Gassicki.

Starting point is 00:23:04 I would say better than the paths. Dallas, no doubt. C.D. Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, better. Detroit. Amon Ross, St. Brown, Jameson, William, Sam Leporta, better. Minnesota, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, J.J. Hawkinson. The Rams, Pucanukua, Devante Adams, one of their four or five tight ends, better. I would also put the Jaguars ahead of the Patriots, even though a lot will rest on Brian Thomas Jr. and whether or not he bounces back,

Starting point is 00:23:35 but I think from a talent perspective, Jacksonville with BTJ, Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, I would put them ahead of the Patriots. I would put Arizona ahead of the Patriots with Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey McBride. But then I get to the teams that I think you could say are close to the Patriots in Warren Sharp's

Starting point is 00:23:58 tears of past catchers. How about Denver? Jalen Wattle, Cortland Sutton, you've got Troy Franklin, you've got Evan Engram. Is that better than the Patriots? I would give Denver the Edge. How about Philadelphia? Devante Smith, Mackay Lemon, Dallas Goddard.

Starting point is 00:24:22 Well, we don't know what Mikea Lemon's going to look like in his rookie season. So I think Philadelphia's past catchers, I mean, they are right there with the Patriots, which is interesting because Warren Sharp has Philadelphia as his eighth best set of receivers. So Warren Sharp doesn't even think that it's close between Philly and the Patriots. I would disagree with that. I think Devante Smith and A.J. Brown are pretty close. I might give the edge to Devante Smith, but I think Mackay Lemon and Romeo Dobbs will see what McCoy Lemon again looks like with that quarterback.

Starting point is 00:25:01 And as a rookie, Dallas Goddard and Hunter Henry are pretty close. So, you know, maybe you give the edge to Philly. Maybe you give the edge to the Patriots, but I don't think it's as wide of a gap as Warren Sharp is telling us. Houston, Nico Collins. And then you've got, you know, the trio of Higgins, Noel, and Dell. Well, one of those guys truly pop. I think that's also pretty close, Dalton Schultz.

Starting point is 00:25:27 I might give the edge to Houston, but I think that's close. Then there are teams that I would absolutely, put the Patriots ahead of here. There are teams that are listed ahead of the paths by Warren Sharp as far as wide receiver tight end combinations that I disagree with through and through. The Chicago Bears, Roma Dunzei, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland. Now, by the end of 2026, maybe all three of those guys pop and maybe they end up being better. But I need to see it first.

Starting point is 00:26:02 You know, I need to see what those guys do first before I, anoint them being ahead of the Patriots. You know, Roma Dunezay on paper, man, he, you know, he's a very, very attractive football player. He has a lot of skill. And in a perfect world, Roma Dunezay ends up being, you know, a top 10 to 15 receiver in the league. But his rookie year, he had 54 catches.

Starting point is 00:26:30 Last year, he had 44. Now he played 12 games last year. But let's see how much of a jump. he truly makes. And Luther Burden, you're looking at somebody who is entering his second season. And, you know, I thought that he put together a pretty darn good rookie year for Chicago. But am I ready to anoint him after he had 47 catches and two touchdowns? So I think Chicago is more of a projection, which is fine.

Starting point is 00:27:00 The Patriots is more what you know. But going in, I would have A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs and Hunt Henry, probably, you know, slightly ahead of Chicago with the appreciation that Chicago could leapfrog the Patriots during the year. Seattle, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Cup, A.J. Barner. Jackson Smith and Jigba is awesome. There's no doubt. But Cooper Cup, he ain't getting any younger. Rashid Shahid, you know, he was a Clint Kubiak guy. What's he do this year in Seattle? Barner versus Hunter Henry.

Starting point is 00:27:39 San Francisco, Mike Evans or A.J. Brown. I lean A.J. Brown. Ricky Pierce, all, or Romeo Dobbs. George Kittle versus Hunter Henry. I obviously lean George Kittle coming back from an Achilles. We'll see how that helps, you know, San Francisco's offense if it does and how he returns and looks. But the Patriots are better than San Francisco on paper.

Starting point is 00:28:00 The Patriots are better than Green Bay on paper. Christian Watson is more of a vision than an actuality right now. Matthew Golden going into his second season. We'll see Jalen Reed and what he does. We'll see Tucker Kraft, really talented, tight end, but he's coming back from a significant injury. I'd put the Patriots ahead of Green Bay. I'd put the Patriots ahead of San Francisco.

Starting point is 00:28:20 I'd put the Patriots ahead of Tampa Bay. I love a Mecca, Abuka. But he declined significantly in the second half of the year. Let's see what he does in year two. Jalen McMillan's had a number of injury issues. Chris Godwin last year, at least, looked pretty washed. And Cade out and is fine. but I'd rather have Hunter Henry.

Starting point is 00:28:38 So I am super confident that the Patriots right now on paper, better than Tampa, better than Green Bay, better than San Francisco. We could have the argument or debate about Seattle. I would give the Patriots the edge. We could have the argument debate about Chicago. I would give the Patriots the edge. I think the Patriots right now, they are right around 10th. If you look at pass catchers, wide receiver, tight-end combos, I think the Patriots, Patriots are around 10th instead of, you know, 15th or 16th.

Starting point is 00:29:12 I think they're just on the outside of the top 10 looking in. And I think they have a really nice mix of veterans and youth. If the youth can show up, Kyle Williams, Pop Douglas, if they can get going. I think they have a really good mix. But I think they are, I wouldn't say, disrespected. But I think their crop of wide receivers and tight ends are under-repressure. appreciated by Warren Sharp, given the teams that he has or some of the teams that he has ranked ahead of them. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.

Starting point is 00:29:49 Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe on YouTube. And of course, thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen. For your second listen, check out Lockdown NFL scouting. Kyle Crabs and Joe Marino will make you the most informed NFL fan this offseason. Find Lockdown NFL scouting on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Have a great day. you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Feared: Patriots’ A.J. Brown Shatters Expectations in Latest WR Rankings

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