Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Fortunate: Will Campbell & Jared Wilson Avoid Season-Ending Setbacks

Starting point is 00:00:00 It was a costly Sunday regarding injuries for the Pats, but reportedly not as costly as it could have been. Let's start there. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattle. Born and Raised in New England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years. Also, the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran.

Starting point is 00:00:39 Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network. Thanks to all of you, your team every day. On today's show, we have some all 22 takeaways, including specifically what went wrong inside the five-yard line for the Pat's offense on Sunday. Also, we'll tell you how the Bengals attack the Pats with their run game. But first, some positive news on the injury front. Today's episode is brought to by a Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app.

Starting point is 00:01:16 You never want to lose offensive linemen. You never want to lose a single offensive lineman, let alone multiple offensive linemen in one game. You never want to lose the left side. of your offensive line, especially if your quarterback is right-handed. You don't want to lose rookie offensive linemen because they're continuing to learn and develop, which is crucial throughout that first season. But when we look at Will Campbell and Jared Wilson and their injuries from the game on Sunday, we have what I would put it as not terrible news because it's not great news.

Starting point is 00:01:53 Great news would be, hey, they are not actually injured. something crazy happened they thought they were injured they're not injured they're going to be back against the giants on monday night football that would be spectacular news that would be the great news but the not terrible news is what we have heard from the latest reports regarding campbell and wilson ian rappaport posted on monday patriots left tackle will campbell is believed to have suffered an MCL sprain and will have an MRI on his knee. He's a candidate for injured reserve with the hope he returns when it counts the most. Now, I do want to give credit to somebody who had this before any of the national insiders

Starting point is 00:02:40 had it, before people were tweeting about it, before Mike Vrable was discussing the situation about the injuries to, you know, both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. And the person who deserves credit, and I will give that person the credit, is Daniel Rotman, who is known by other names, what he does online on Twitter as the Scout the NFL, the retired founder of ScoutThe NFL.com. Daniel Rotman was the first person who said that Will Campbell and Jared Wilson, which we'll get to in a moment, had sprains and that the injuries were not as serious as we might have initially thought, especially watching the reaction from Campbell

Starting point is 00:03:30 and Wilson. So shout out to Daniel Rotman, who had that first. Mike Vrable, of course, met with the media on Monday, and he was asked about Will Campbell. This is transcribed by Mike Reese of ESPN, quote, he won't be out there this week. It's going to be a couple weeks. We'll have to make a decision here on the roster to see how long that will be and go from there. But it's nothing that's going to hopefully put him out for the entire season, unquote. Now, when Mike Vrable says it's going to be a couple weeks and then follows that with we'll have to make a decision here on the roster, he's talking about IR. He's talking about roster spots.

Starting point is 00:04:09 How long is Will Campbell going to be out? Is it going to be long enough to justify putting him on IR? or can he possibly come back before the next four games so you don't put him on the IR and you get your starting left tackle back ASAP. If you're wondering about MCL sprains, quick little Google search for you, a grade one sprain can keep somebody out anywhere from one to three weeks. A grade two sprain can keep someone out four to six weeks. And a grade three sprain is six to eight plus weeks.

Starting point is 00:04:44 So if Mike Vrable is talking about trying to figure out the roster manipulation and what to do with Will Campbell, whether IR is the solution or not, you have to imagine that it's more likely that Will Campbell has a grade one or grade two sprain and they're trying to figure out the severity of it. Now, of course, he could have a grade two to grade three sprain, but now you're talking about a month to two plus months. And it just feels like if it was that severe, then they would just put him on IR and make that decision. Now, maybe they do it. But we'll see. We'll see what happens. The initial reaction, I talked about it on the live post game, the initial reaction from Will Campbell, the initial reaction from his teammates, getting carted off to the locker room with a towel around his head. It certainly felt like this could have been an ACL.

Starting point is 00:05:39 But the early reports and the way what Mike Vrable had to say to the media, certainly feels like the Patriots dodged a bullet and Campbell dodged a bullet. And Campbell is young. He's 21 years old. We've talked about that before. You know, he probably hasn't gone through many, if any, major injuries in his career. And so his reaction could have just been the shock of it all in him fearing the worst. What about Jared Wilson? Back to Ian Rappaport. Jared Wilson suffered a high ankle sprain. He's considered week to week while most high ankle sprain of four to six weeks, the hope is this is on the shorter side.

Starting point is 00:06:17 So four to six weeks, but Ian Rappaport says the hope, obviously he's getting this from somewhere, somewhere maybe in the building, maybe from Jared Wilson's agent. But the hope is that this high ankle sprain will cost Jared Wilson closer to four weeks than six weeks. Mike Giardi transcribed Mike Vrable talking about Wilson to the media, quote, we'll see how the week of practice goes or see how the rehab goes, see how he responds there, unquote. So Rabel's answers lead you to believe that Campbell is more likely headed to the IR than Wilson, and Wilson could be back maybe within the next few weeks.

Starting point is 00:06:52 Maybe he's back by Buffalo after the by week. I do not expect either guy to be out there against the Giants. But, you know, the best guess, the estimate from me and take this for what it's worth, I think that Will Campbell will aim for the playoffs. You're probably looking at a best case scenario of six to seven weeks. So I think Campbell will be aiming for the playoffs. Just get back by that first playoff game. You might use extra caution against the Jets and the Dolphins at the end of the year

Starting point is 00:07:23 because neither of those teams are going to be playing for anything. Meanwhile, I think Wilson could be back by Baltimore, maybe even Buffalo. But I would look towards more Baltimore than Buffalo, which is, of course, you've got the Giants, you've got the buy week, you've got Buffalo, Baltimore, that would have Jared Wilson back in practicing within the next three to four weeks. And I think the repetitions mean more for Wilson because it's a new position he's playing.

Starting point is 00:07:54 He's also messing around with a new stance, which Greg Bedard wrote about at Boston Sports Journal, just about a week or so ago. So what do you do while these two guys are out? Well, Venerian Lowe, you have to imagine, even though Mike Grable kind of left it up the air with the media. You have to imagine that Vidarian Lowe will get the start at left tackle over Marcus Bryant, the seventh round pick from Missouri.

Starting point is 00:08:19 Lowe has over a thousand NFL snaps at left tackle. You want some of that steadiness and that experience. I would also say watching the all 22, which we'll dive into a little bit deeper later on, I did not think that Lowe was bad against Cincinnati.

Starting point is 00:08:35 He had a couple of plays he wants back. He went for a cup block and kind of just stumbled and bumbled and fell you know took us over tea kettle but the matchup of course against Cincinnati helps but I did not think that low was a mess and I also did not think that Ben Brown who replaced Jared Wilson I did not think he was a mess at left guard I did not think he was bad against Sincy now of course he's a natural center so if anything happens with Garrett Bradbury you'd have to imagine Kaden Wallace would be the next guy up at left guard and you would slide Brown back to his natural

Starting point is 00:09:09 position, but that's going a little too far down the road. It's unfortunate that you're starting left tackle and your starting left guard went out with injuries that are going to cost them multiple weeks and went out during the same game. And it's unfortunate that those two guys are likely going to miss Buffalo and Baltimore, but it could have been much worse. We could have been talking about they're done for the rest of the season. We could have been talking about what will these guys look like in 2026?

Starting point is 00:09:37 When can they get back? Will they be healthy for cancer? camp. So all things considered, this is really, you know, good news and certainly as I termed it earlier, not terrible news about both Campbell and Wilson. Well, we all know that Sinci ran the ball against the Pats pretty well, but we'll tell you how they did it. We also have a serious concern about the edge position. All that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. The NBA is back and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandul,

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Starting point is 00:11:13 On this week of Thanksgiving, we're going to try to get these episodes out a little earlier than usual. And speaking of thanks, thank you for making lockdown Patriots, your first list in of the day. And thank you for making lockdown the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget you're watching on YouTube to like, click that thumbs up, helps us a lot. So don't forget to like.

Starting point is 00:11:34 Don't forget to comment your thoughts on this. I would say absolutely positive news regarding Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Let me know how you feel about that. Throw a comment in that also helps us with the algorithm. And don't forget to subscribe as we march towards 8,000 subs here with lockdown Patriots. So on Friday's episode, as we previewed the Cincinnati Patriots game, I talked about how the Patriots, a big reason why they were nine and two going into Sunday was because they were winning in the trenches.

Starting point is 00:12:04 Now, we talked about the offensive line injuries. Up next, we got to look at the defensive line. And after watching the All-22, we try to figure out what Cincinnati did against the Patriots defensive line in the front seven that gave them problems. And where did the Patriots struggle? Because they obviously struggled more on Sunday against Cincinnati than they have in the run game, especially before Cincinnati. Now, some of the issues, clearly, let's not be disingenuous.

Starting point is 00:12:37 Let's not be ridiculous, clearly some of the issues, if not maybe the majority of the issues, you were without Milton Williams to begin with, and then you lost Kyrie's Tonga very early in the game. Tonga tried to come back, was unable to stay in the game. So now we keep an eye on him, not much of an update regarding Tonga's injury during all these reports on Monday. but you were without Milton Williams and then you were without for most of the game, Kyrie's Tonga, and that meant your run defense could be an issue and it was.

Starting point is 00:13:10 Evan Lazar, Patriots.com, writes, Bengals running back Chase Brown became the first 100-yard rusher versus the pads this season, carrying the ball for 107 yards on 19 carries over the last three games New England has allowed 5.2 yards in a plus 0.09 EPA per rush with a 50, 8.3 success rate. If you're wondering what all of that means, well, just I'll compare them as Evan Lazard did. The first nine weeks, when the run defense was absolutely nailed, they were holding run games to 3.6 yards per rush.

Starting point is 00:13:51 So for the first nine weeks, it was 3.6 yards per rush. The most recent three games, it's been, 5.2 yards per rush over those last three games. When you look at EPA per rush, when the Patriots were the best run defense in football, it was a minus 0.14. In the last three games, it's been a plus 0.09. When you look at success rate, when the Patriots were the best run defense in football, the success rate of the opposing run game was 38.1%.

Starting point is 00:14:26 In the last three weeks, that's jumped more than 20% to 58. So all of those numbers tell us one thing. The past three games that we have watched, the Patriots defense, their run defense, has declined. So what's going on? Well, again, first let's look at the Cincinnati game and just from a personnel standpoint. The interior defensive line. Eric Gregory, former Cincinnati Bangle, and I would also say Jeremiah Farms were not particularly great against the run. Cincinnati also did something that other teams have done.

Starting point is 00:15:05 They attacked K. Levan Chase-on, his edge, and they also attacked Elijah Ponder in the run game. Now, Elijah Ponder made a couple of plays last week against the run and was able to kind of set the edge. He wasn't always great against Cincinnati. So the Bengals looked at the film and they said, Eric Gregory, Jeremiah Farms. we can push those guys around a little bit and ponder chase on whoever is out there at that edge opposite of harold landry we're running we're running at that edge because we think we can push caleb on chase on around and we're not so sold on Elijah ponder's discipline just yet so on the other edge when you have harold landry and anthony jennings we're not going to

Starting point is 00:15:51 mess around as much with that side no no we're attacking chase on and ponder that's what we're going to do. And they did it. And it worked. And I mean, at times, the offensive line is trying to throw a double team against Chase on on a run play. And frankly, they did not even need the second blocker. So Caleb on Chase on, you know, before playing for the Patriots, he had played a lot as kind of that pass rusher kind of substitute role guy. He's out there for a lot of snaps, which we'll get to in a minute. And that means you got to play against the run. And we've seen, teams, we've seen offenses, consistently run at K. Levan Chase-on. So that's, you know, part of the problem.

Starting point is 00:16:36 And I also think the linebackers at times are getting, you know, mixed up in the wash, so to speak, and not necessarily attacking at the right angles and having the better run fits. And so that's been a problem. But really, you look at that front, that defensive line, and without Milton Williams, and without Kyrie's Tonga, Cincinnati found some cracks. And those cracks began with Milton Williams, but they've grown and grown and grown without Milton Williams.

Starting point is 00:17:08 The other part of the defensive line is, and I know I've said this, I sound like a broken freaking record at this point, but Caleb-on-Chayson and Harold Landry, it's not a consistent pressure. It's just not. Harold Landry did not get much pressure at all in this football game, against the Bengals. Calamon Chaseon had some pressures, but it's not a consistent pressure.

Starting point is 00:17:34 It's not like, you know, every passing dropback, you have a tackle, you know, looking like he's on skates, just trying to hold back Calebon Chase on. There was a stretch where Caleb on Chase on was just, he was dominating football games. That's not necessarily the case now. So Chaseon and Landry, inconsistent. Anfrey Jennings was MIA. I watched the all 22. He played 10 snaps.

Starting point is 00:17:59 I didn't see him do much of anything. I thought Elijah Ponder did not do a whole heck of a lot. I thought he was better last week than he was this week. So I don't think Ponder did too much. And when you're watching the film, you're watching this all play out. With the inconsistent pressure, Joe Flacko had two to three great opportunities that he just missed. He missed. Whether he found the receiver, he should have found,

Starting point is 00:18:24 and just missed the throw or missed the receiver that was wide open. He had two or three great opportunities in this game to make the Patriots defense pay, and mostly it's because he wasn't getting a ton of heat. Now, I know people will sit there and they'll look at this, and the next gen stats will tell us that the Patriots had 41% pressure, and it was a top five or top eight pressure rate. I'm just telling you watching the All-22, the I test tells me that the pressure was not overwhelming whatsoever for Joe Flacko.

Starting point is 00:18:57 And as a matter of fact, I'll keep going to the time to pressure stat. Because, yes, the Patriots, when you look at their pressure rate, their pressure rate has been around the top 10 all year long. However, when you look inside the numbers and you look at how long it's taking their pass rush to get home, to get that pressure on the quarterback, it's been closer to like 20th in the league. And again, again, Cincinnati, before Monday night football, the Patriots were. 16 out of 26 teams in time to pressure. So below average.

Starting point is 00:19:31 And we've seen that. So they're getting pressure rate, but there's a lot of context with that. How long is the quarterback holding on to the football? You know, we talk quick pressures against the giants. We're going to talk about it. Against the Giants, Abdul Carter, those guys, quick pressures. Patriots not so much. And the other part of this is Chase-on and Landry. We talked about this around the trade deadline. Again, on Sunday against Cincy, both Chase-on and Landry were above 70% of the snaps.

Starting point is 00:20:05 Landry still doesn't look the same. He's dealing with a knee now, and that's a problem. And Chase-on, probably wearing down because he's going to absolutely blow by his career high in snaps this season. It's not even going to be close if he continues to play the amount he's played.

Starting point is 00:20:23 And so as these guys continue to rack up 70 plus percent of the snaps, I continue to ask, what are they going to look like by the time you get to Buffalo, Baltimore, you get to the playoffs. You are asking a lot from Chase on and Landry right now. Now, the good news, I thought Corey Durdon played well against the run and the past. I thought Christian Barmore played well. And I wonder, does Joshua Farmer get another shot? kind of interesting that he was a healthy inactive against Cincinnati because he had been playing snaps before, you know, he came up with an injury and, you know, sat out last week.

Starting point is 00:21:04 He ends up being a healthy inactive. So will Joshua Farmer find himself back in the rotation? I wouldn't mind seeing it. Now, of course, I don't know if something happened behind closed doors. I have no idea why he was a healthy scratch, but I would like to see Farmer back on the field. I really would. I'd give him a shot over Gregory right now. All right, two telling stats about the Pat's run game and a number of all 22 takeaways next. As we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:22:50 comment and sub, I have watched most of the Patriots Bengals game on the All-22. Why most? Because NFL Plus is dragging their feet, getting the All-22 out. So I was able to watch all of the game up until the final offensive possession and the final defensive possession. At the time of recording, those two drives were unavailable to me. So with that said, wanted to let you all know that. Some all 22 takeaways.

Starting point is 00:23:24 Let's start with Trayvion Henderson. I thought he was fine. I did not think he was great. I did not think he was outstanding. He mostly got the yards that were there. The one thing I would say, after watching Henderson all season long, including on Sunday against Cincinnati, on the inside the tackle runs,

Starting point is 00:23:44 it feels like he's just not going to bounce those out. he's not going to bounce those out and sometimes he misses cutback lanes so when you see these outside zone runs when you see them you know give the ball to henderson and he's going outside the tackles when he's when he's given some space you'll see a little bit of a cutback right a little bit of a wiggle he did that against the jets on one of his touchdown runs where he made a guy miss because he kind of just cut it in a little bit on these in between the tackles on these interior runs. He's had some opportunities to bounce some of those runs out and break it to the edge. He's had some opportunities to find the cutback lane and he just doesn't do it, or at least

Starting point is 00:24:29 doesn't do it on a consistent basis. So, you know, I wonder if you continue to run Henderson inside the tackles, if he's ever going to be that type of bounce out guy who all of a sudden, you know, one jump cut and he's taking it, you know, 75 yards. at least consistently. So we'll see, not consistently 75 yards, but consistently making that bounce cut or bouncing out or finding the cutback lane. Because I do think when you watch the film, there are runs for Henderson that he could get more,

Starting point is 00:25:03 but he doesn't get those. And I'm not sitting here telling you that he's, you know, a bad running back. He's obviously not. He's talented. He's got, you know,

Starting point is 00:25:13 a few elite traits in his back pocket. It's just, when you watch him on these interior runs, I was expecting maybe a little bit more wiggle, a little bit more bounce out, a little bit more find the cutback lane and make defenses pay. He hasn't done that. Maybe he will get better at it. Maybe he will get there, Tony Dew's running backs coach. Maybe he will end up developing and finding that and having a little bit better vision on these inside runs. But for this part of the season, it pretty much is what it is. an interesting stat or a couple of stats about the Patriots run game on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:25:50 Rushing yards before contact, the Patriots were fourth out of 26 teams. So that tells you the offensive line was getting decent push. They were the fourth best team heading into Monday night football, the fourth best team this week in rushing yards before the running back was even contacted. And even more telling stat is that the Patriots, while they were fourth in yards before contact rushing, they were last in yards after contact. They got hit. They went down.

Starting point is 00:26:22 So that would tell you the running backs were not as good as they, you know, could have been getting those extra yards. And that's mostly Trayvion Henderson, but I do think Ramandre Stevenson didn't help when you've got, what, six carries for five yards, that's going to hurt. And I'm not sure how healthy Ramandre Stevenson was on Sunday. but you need more. You can't be last in yards after contact. If you have that stat, you're not going to have a good rushing week. Goal line issues.

Starting point is 00:26:51 All right. We talked about the goal line issues because it was obvious the red zone offense was a struggle against Cincinnati. We talked about it in live post game, but now watching the all 22, I could really dive into what the problems were. And frankly, you had different culprits on different plays.

Starting point is 00:27:10 So here, some examples in the third quarter, not all of them. Here are some examples from the third quarter with those goal line issues. First and goal from the five-yard line, 11-16 on the clock. It is a quarterback run play. Looks like a design quarterback run for Drake May. Kishon Booty is confused. He doesn't really block anybody so the edge isn't sealed and the play is pretty much wasted. Thirding goal from the one-yard line, 1023 left in the quarter. Michael Wenow, this is the play where Michael Wenu steps on Drake May's foot. Even though

Starting point is 00:27:42 a one who steps on May's foot, May still has a shot at Hunter Henry as he's rolling out. It's not initially there, but then Henry kind of breaks in and the linebacker falls. And May has, you know, he has an opportunity there,

Starting point is 00:27:59 but he just waits a beat too late. And because he waits just a beat too late, the linebacker gets back into the play and breaks up the pass. That's the difference in the NFL. We're talking about tight windows, especially down in the red zone. Timing has to be nearly flawless. And for whatever reason, May did not let it rip.

Starting point is 00:28:21 He was just a beat too late PBU instead of touchdown. Then you had a first and goal from the one-yard line, 10-15 on the clock. This was the Terrell Jennings run. Your offensive line stunk. Morgan Moses, Owenu, Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell. They were all bad on the play. had no chance. Fourth and goal from the one-yard line, 7-54 left on the clock in the third quarter. This was a read option from the shotgun, and Drake May looks like he made the wrong read.

Starting point is 00:28:51 He gives it to Ramandre Stevenson. The play has no chance because both of the edges are crashing down. If May holds on to this football and keeps it, it might end up being a touchdown. Go-line issues in the fourth quarter, first and goal from the four-yard line, 732 left in the game. This was a half-field read for May on a bootleg. Nobody's open, so you can't do anything about it. Third and goal from the one-yard line, 6-49 left in the game. This was the tush push. When you're talking about the tush-push, you've got to get low.

Starting point is 00:29:22 You've got to get low to the field. It's all about getting lower than the guy across from you. Michael Wenow and others did not do that, and the play is blown up. It has no chance. So overall, the offensive line needs to be better. Drake May two times I think he had opportunities there just wasn't able to get it done and you know so you look at all of these different issues and it's it's really a different culprit on each play some other numbers from the game against Sincy the Patriots did not

Starting point is 00:29:54 blitz hardly at all in this game they were dead last and blitz rate heading into Monday night football they only blitzed 10.3% of the time interesting they did not after Joe Flacco played a lot of coverage. They were third. Here's something the Patriots did really well. The Patriots were third best heading in two Monday night football for the week in yards after the catch over-expected. Minus eight yards. They gave nothing to Cincinnati beyond what they should have gotten.

Starting point is 00:30:23 They also kept T. Higgins in check, which helps that number. T. Higgins had only five catches for 31 yards. Of course, he did draw the big defensive pass interference against Carlton Davis, watching that play over. again. It might have been a tougher call than we might have thought initially against Davis because it looks like T. Higgins kind of hugs Davis before Davis starts to hug him. It is what it is. Cincinnati, meanwhile, they blitzed. They blitzed Drake May a decent amount. They had the sixth highest blitz rate heading into Monday Night Football, 30.6% of the time

Starting point is 00:30:56 they blitz the Patriots. And Evan Lazare had the numbers. May, surprisingly, was not very good against the blitz. He was three of ten for 34 yards and a sack against the blitz. Now some of that is on May. And I think some of that is some late defensive line movement and games played by Cincinnati's front. All right. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an every dare. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. And for your second listen, get a double dose of Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins find locked on NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to

Starting point is 00:31:36 podcast. Have a great rest of your day. And we will see you. We will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Fortunate: Will Campbell & Jared Wilson Avoid Season-Ending Setbacks

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