Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Gamechanger: How Drake Maye Plans to Attack the New York Giants Defense

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's a prime time game on Monday night, and I don't think this one is going to be easy for the paths. Let's get to our deep dive preview. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the Pats for the past 16 years. I'm also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran.

Starting point is 00:00:39 Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget, we will be going live. Lockdown Patriots will be going live after the Giants Patriots Monday night game on YouTube. Don't forget to swing by and check us. out. On today's show, though, we'll tell you some of the little things that can make a big difference in this game. Also, Jackson Dart will start for the Giants and will present some challenges for the past defense. But first, let's discuss Drake May and his reshuffled

Starting point is 00:01:13 offensive line. Today's episode is brought to buy Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. This Giants defense has talent. There's no doubt about that. Defense ends, Brian Burns, Abdul Carter. We talked a lot about Abdul Carter heading into the draft this past April. And so you have those two defensive ends. Kvon, Tibodeau is not going to play on Monday night. He remains out for the Giants. But still, those two defensive ends are no joke. The interior defensive line, Dexter Lawrence, Darius Alexander, also two guys who can really attack your interior of your offensive line. Javon Holland can make plays at free safety.

Starting point is 00:01:56 So you do look at this Giants defense and you realize there's some talent out there that can hurt you and get after Drake May. The Giants are number two in man coverage rate this season defensively. They don't blitz a ton, 17th in blitz rate in the NFL this year. But let's not forget, this is going to be a new defensive coordinator on Monday night. Mike Rabel's best friend is BFF. Shane Bowen was fired by the Giants. after losing another double-digit lead last weekend to the Lions. And now you have interim defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen taking over.

Starting point is 00:02:35 So will the defense change or will they continue to play lots of men? They play more than 40% man coverage as a defense. Will that continue? We'll see. Will they blitz more? Will they blitz less? We'll see how Charlie Bullen decides to call his defense versus what Shane Bowen did for the first 12 games of this season.

Starting point is 00:02:56 course, when we look at this matchup, Giants defense, Patriots offense, we got to talk about the offensive line. Vedarian Lowe is expected to start at left tackle for Will Campbell. Will Campbell placed on IR earlier this week. So he is going to miss at least the next four games for the Patriots at left tackle. So it will be Vedarian Lowe with the first shot, not Marcus Bryant. Marcus Bryant has played at right tackle since being drafted. He did play left tackle at Missouri as Armand Membue played right tackle for Missouri, but it is going to be Vadarian Lowe getting the first shot. So when you look at this offensive line, you look at the tackles.

Starting point is 00:03:34 Vedarian Lowe, Morgan Moses against Brian Burns and Abdul Carter. Carter and Burns will move around on this defensive line, but these tackles have to play really well on Monday night if the Patriots want to score points. If they want to move the football consistently, a lot will have to do. with the tackle play. Now, the Giants pass rush, again, they have talent. But when you look at some of the numbers, you might think they're not as good as they might want to be. They're 23rd in pressure rate. However, I always add the context. We talk about pressure rate, but what we don't talk enough about is time to pressure. And I've been pounding that the last couple of weeks,

Starting point is 00:04:15 whether it's for the Patriots pass rush or it's the past protection, the time to pressure. The Giants pass rush is 12th in the NFL in time to pressure. So they get to you quickly. They have the 10th best pass rush, quote unquote, get off numbers, which means they're very, very explosive at the edge and in the interior. And they are 15th in pass rush win rate, including the aforementioned Burns being 13th in the NFL and the aforementioned Carter being 14th in the NFL. So when you look at just pressure rate, you might believe.

Starting point is 00:04:50 they're not getting to the quarterback, but when you look at time to pressure, you look at the get-off, you look at the pass-rush win rate, they're all in the top 15, the upper half of the NFL this year in those analytics, in those statistics. Now, the secondary has been banged up. Paulson Adebo is questionable. Dexter Lawrence is also questionable. He would be a gigantic loss for this Giants defense if he does not play on Monday night. So when you look at this pass rush, you look at this defense, it's all going to be about Drake May and his trust in the offensive line. Does he trust Ben Brown at left guard? Does he trust Vedarian Lowe at left tackle? Does he look a little jittery? Does he look impatient in the pocket? Or does he have that trust and does

Starting point is 00:05:36 he show that poise? Now, if Drake May does show the poise, which I expect him to, the Patriots offense should be able to attack this Giants defense with play action. Watching back the Giants versus the Lions last weekend, the defense of the Giants had some issues dealing with play action. And I think that is going to be an opportunity for Josh McDaniels and Drake May to take advantage of. And you will see, or you should see, plenty of play action on Monday night. I also think when you play an aggressive defense, an aggressive defensive front, you want to throw screens at them. And the Giants defense had some issues defending screens against the Lions. And Drake May's mobility, this is going to be a different chance.

Starting point is 00:06:17 challenged than Jared Goff in Detroit last weekend. And the Giants, you know, they left some opportunities out there for the quarterback to break, contain, and pick up yards. But Jared Goff is not a very mobile quarterback, as we know. He doesn't use his legs a ton. So I do think that May's ability to run with the football, his ability to extend plays, will challenge this Giants defense. But let's also talk about the run game because,

Starting point is 00:06:46 May, if he gets some run game, that would help tremendously. In the Patriots, if you want to slow down, the pass rush, if you want to go after these defensive ends, go after them with physicality, and you need to run the football. I thought watching tape, you know, Burns and Carter, not necessarily super physical against tackles in the run game, and you can push them around a little bit. Jemir Gibbs went off against this Giants defense. 15 carries, 219 yards, two touchdowns, better than 14 and a half yards per carry. And this Giants run defense is the worst run defense in football.

Starting point is 00:07:24 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in yards per carry, 28th in stuff percentage, 30 second in EPA per rush, 30 second in yards before contact per attempt, 30th in yards after contact per attempt. The Patriots, you know, you got to be able to run the football against this defense. You have to. They stink out loud. Now, what will the snaps look like for the running backs? We'll see.

Starting point is 00:07:50 Ramandre Stevenson, does he look like he looked last weekend, which, you know, wasn't too healthy? Does Trayvion Henderson end up with 65% of the snaps again? We'll see. And when you look at the Giants defense, running inside is a weakness of this giant's defense. And Taylor Kyle's brought up Michael Wenow this week. And Michael Wenu, since week nine, has been terrific. He's been terrific, according to pro football focus. Weeks 10 through 12, he has an 84 and a half blocking grade,

Starting point is 00:08:22 which is better than his 65.0 blocking grade, weeks one through nine. His run block grade is 80.9 compared to 60.7, the first nine weeks. And this past block grade has gone up from 72.1 to 80.4. or Michael Wenu is sixth among 157 offensive lineman with 100 plus blocking snaps. So Michael Wenu is playing better football. Ben Brown, Garrett Bradbury. Can they hold up? Can they get push on the inside?

Starting point is 00:08:53 Evan Lazar wrote about the Giants run defense. And the Pats have majored as he wrote in gap schemes, such as duo and fullback lead plays, which have given the Giants trouble. Now, New England's only averaging four yards per rush when they use those man blocking schemes, according to Evan Lazzar, that's 20th in the NFL. But the Giants have surrendered a league worst 7.8 yards per carry on downhill run plays.

Starting point is 00:09:16 It's pretty crazy. Two yards per carry more than the next closest defense, which is Buffalo at 5.8. And Dexter Lawrence is questionable with that elbow. So run inside. Now, of course, does it even matter? Cincinnati's defense was not very good going into the Patriots game. Now, you look back after the Ravens game on thanks. and the Cincinnati defense looks like they might be figuring some things out.

Starting point is 00:09:40 So you might have caught them at the worst time. But you've got to be able to run. You didn't run the ball against Cincinnati. You've got to be able to run against the Giants. And of course, the offensive line, the chemistry. You've got two new guys in this offensive line starting on Monday night. You've got to deal with the blitzes. You've got to deal with some games up front.

Starting point is 00:09:57 So they have to be on the same page. The Patriots 11 out of the first 12 weeks of this season had the same starting offensive line. that is going to change dramatically on Monday night. And are they on that same page against those blitzes and those games? And when you look at the Giants, 21st in defense on third down, so you should be able to extend drives. They're 25th on fourth down, which matters with Mike Vrable being so aggressive on fourth down this year.

Starting point is 00:10:23 And the Giants have the second worst red zone defense. Now, we know the problems the Patriots had in the red zone, but they've got to be able to run the football. They've got to be able to finish drives against this defense. Because those are two huge weaknesses for the Giants. All right, Jackson Dart is dangerous, but there's one type of defense that has given him fits. Find out what that defense is and more next as we continue with Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

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Starting point is 00:12:04 Thank you for making Lockdown page. Patriots your first listen of the day. And thank you for making lockdown the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. And don't forget, if you're on YouTube, you're watching us to like this episode, click that thumbs up. Don't forget to like. Don't forget to comment.

Starting point is 00:12:23 And don't forget to subscribe. We are now past 7,600 subscribers. The next goal is 8,000. And also don't forget, while you're here on YouTube, we're going live, live post game on Monday night following the Giants and the Patriots right here with the Lockdown Patriots podcast hosted by yours truly Nick Cattels appreciate every single one of you. Jackson Dart, watching Jackson Dart against the Chicago Bears. He played three quarters against the bears before he went out with a concussion. He hasn't played since. He is going to start on Monday night. He has cleared the protocol.

Starting point is 00:12:56 And Jackson Dart, when you watch him, he is more than capable of making some high level throws. There was one throw in particular that Jackson Dart made where he was extending away from the pressure. He throws off one leg as he's going towards the sidelines, and he puts the ball perfectly, absolutely perfectly near the boundary for a big chunk game. And that was against the Chicago Bears in that game. So Jackson Dart, he is capable of these high-level throws. He shows good touch. He shows good touch with some of these throws as well.

Starting point is 00:13:29 Evan Lazzar wrote about Jackson-Dart this week. the quarterback ranks ninth and expected points added with franchise quarterback flashes, no doubt about that. And he has registered a 5.9% big time throw rate, which is third among qualified quarterbacks. He is third among qualified QBs and big time throw rate in his rookie season. Again, he is very capable of some high level throws at the NFL level. Now, he is also capable of making some big. bad decisions. There was a red zone series against the Chicago Bears in that game where he should

Starting point is 00:14:06 have thrown two interceptions on the same series inside the 20. So he is prone to some of those rookie mistakes. He is prone to making a few bad decisions here and there. So he has the flashes, he has the high level throws, but he is also a little bit dangerous for his own team at times trying to do too much. So you can turn him over. You can turn him over if you're paying attention in the secondary and you catch the football. So yes, high level throws, capable, touch capable. Bad decisions also is part of this mix. Now, lots of this offense, when Jackson Dart has played for the Giants, lots of this offense has been based on Dart's ability to run. You see a lot of read option with Jackson Dart at

Starting point is 00:14:56 quarterback. As a matter of fact, according to our friend Evan Lazare, Dart has accumulated a league high 152 rushing yards on designed quarterback runs. And you go back to that Jets game Thursday night football, Justin Fields, that first Jets drive. The Patriots had some issues early against the mobile quarterback. Get ready because Jackson Dart is very mobile. He'll run the read option. He'll run RPO's.

Starting point is 00:15:22 He will extend plays. You've got to be able to keep him in the pocket and don't allow him to get these explosive runs because that's how the Giants offense will move. the ball. These explosive runs combined with a couple of high level throws and all of a sudden they're putting points up on the board. Now, the question is whether or not the Patriots are going to play man coverage more than they usually do. Darius Slayton, good wide receiver made a tremendous catch in that Bears game, a one-handed catch as he's diving towards the sidelines. Just absolutely crazy. Juan Dale Robinson had a good week last week. He is fast out of the

Starting point is 00:15:58 slot. So they do have some guys at wide receiver that can make plays. Obviously, Malik neighbors done for the year with the torn ACL. So you catch a break with that. But they still have some receivers that can make plays. Now, the issue for Jackson Dart has been man coverage. And I'm just pumping the tires of Evan Lazard today again because in his column at Patriots.com, he wrote about Dart being significantly less productive when teams play man coverage compared to zone coverage. Jackson Darts completion percentage against man is 50% against zone at 67.6%. Average passing yards per play, 5.7 against man, 7.4 against zone.

Starting point is 00:16:41 EPA per play is minus 0.15 against man. It's a plus 0.1.4 against zone coverage. Now, of course, that can be somewhat of a receiver issue as well. Are the guys getting open versus man? Do they have trouble separating? You don't have neighbors who can make plays against man. But I do think if you play man coverage, if the Patriots play man coverage, and they will play man coverage, it's not, you know, if they will.

Starting point is 00:17:08 It's how much they will. You are opening yourself up to be vulnerable against tight end, Theo Johnson, who made some plays against Chicago down the seam. He's a good pass receiving tight end. and he could have a good day against your safeties and linebackers if you decide to play a lot of man coverage. So that's the one thing you got to look out for is somebody like Theo Johnson finishing with 100 plus yards and hurting you. The Giants play a decent amount of two tight end sets. So they will play heavy personnel and they will try to attack this Patriots defense with that heavy personnel up front.

Starting point is 00:17:43 Now, if you're looking at the offensive line, the right side of the Giants offensive line was susceptible against, the Bears. They had some issues. Greg Van Roe in the right guard. Germain Aluminor, old friend at right tackle. Germain Aluminor had a very rough game against Chicago. But this offensive line overall, it's much better than it's been in the past few years. The Giants had one of the worst offensive lines for the past few years. They've been better up front. But you do have some susceptibility on the right side. So can you get that rush? Can you get to the quarterback? Can Harold Landry do damage against Jermaine Illuminaur if Landry plays. We'll get to that in a little bit.

Starting point is 00:18:24 But the offensive line, again, it hasn't been awesome, but it's been much better. And I will bring the context to the table once again, because when you look at the Giants, you look at 28th in pressure rate and you go, wow, that offensive line must be terrible. But they're 13th, according to ESPN's pass block win rate metric. So they're not losing a lot of one-on-ones, folks. Andrew Thomas, who is the left tackle of the Giants, he is an absolute beast. I was watching the Chicago game, and I kid you not, he blocked two dudes on the same play. Two dudes.

Starting point is 00:19:01 Left arm had one guy, right arm had another guy in a pass pro set and blocked both guys. I mean, he is an absolute stud left tackle. It's going to be a pretty tough challenge for K. LeVan Chase on. I talk about time to pressure. The Giants, the third best offensive line in the time to pressure stat. It takes 2.9 seconds to pressure the quarterback. So that's quite a long time in the NFL. And if it's taking you almost three seconds to pressure the quarterback

Starting point is 00:19:33 and you have somebody like Jackson Dart who can move around, that's a challenge for your pass rush. And teams have not blitzed a ton against this Giants offensive line. They have faced the 15th highest amount of opponent blitz rate in the league. So the offensive line is better. Now, the run game's not great. Without Jackson Darts, legs, they have not run the football very effectively.

Starting point is 00:19:57 Devin Singletary, Tyrone Tracy, are there two backs? Those guys are also pretty inconsistent in pass protection. But if you look at what the Giants have done offensively running the ball, again, they're 13th and past block win rate, but they're 22nd in run block win rate. They're 22nd in yards per carry. They are 12th in EPA per rush, but they're 19th in success.

Starting point is 00:20:17 rate. They're 14th in yards before contact. So the offensive line, not doing a terrible job, but they are 25th. The Giants are 25th in run game yards after the contact. You hit their running back, their running back usually goes down. So they've had some issues running the ball. Now, of course, Kyrie's Tonga, Harold Landry, both questionable for Monday night. And that's going to be a huge deal. If those guys don't play, are two of your best run defenders, and we saw this run defense. It has been struggling the past few weeks after being dominant the first nine weeks of the season. So Harold Landry, Kyrie's Tonga, both questionable. If they're out, it's going to be a pretty big challenge

Starting point is 00:21:06 to contain Jackson Dart and maybe even these running backs in the primetime matchup. All right, we'll go over the little things that could result in a W. And we will also give you our prediction next as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought you by prize picks. The holiday season is one of the best times for sports, bowl games, big basketball matchups, playoff, pushes, it's all happening at once. And while we're all making choices every day, one of the most fun places to make the right call is prize picks. Prize picks is the easiest way to get in on daily fantasy. Just pick more or less

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Starting point is 00:22:32 up on Monday night following Patriots, Giants, don't forget to check us out on YouTube. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. This game could be a close game. And I actually expect this game to be a close game. And I expect this game to be a tough game. The Giants, they have, you know, three straight one score games that they've lost. They lost 24 to 20 in that Chicago game. They lost 27 to 20 against the Packers. And again, last week, in overtime, they lost 34 to 27 in Detroit against the Lions. So three straight one score losses, they have led a number of games.

Starting point is 00:23:09 I believe it's five or six games where they've led by double digits and ended up losing the game. So they are 2 and 10, but they are a better team than 2 and 10. And so when you're talking about a close game, when you're talking about a challenging prime time game, the little things can make a pretty big difference. So let's go over some things that we haven't talked about just yet that could make a difference in this game on Monday night. Number one, which team is more physically and mentally checked in? Not checked out, checked in because you're looking at Monday night. you're looking at two teams that have yet to have a buy. Both the Patriots and the Giants have not had their buy week yet.

Starting point is 00:23:50 So these teams are tired. They're tired mentally. They're tired physically. They are wearing down. They have a number of players who are either going to miss this game or are questionable for this game. So which team is physically feeling better, frankly, in this matchup? that might make all the difference in the world. Now, also, when I talk about mentally checked in,

Starting point is 00:24:17 Mike Vrable brought up after the loss, after the win, sorry, I know it felt like a loss at times against Cincinnati. After the win against Cincinnati, Mike Vrable brought up that, you know, he wasn't necessarily thrilled, I'm paraphrasing, but he wasn't thrilled with practice the week of the Cincy game. And the Patriots looked a little off after the mini-by week. Well, now you've had an extra day.

Starting point is 00:24:37 So it's not a mini-buy, but you've had a longer week than usual how do you respond to that? Meanwhile, the Giants, they've been eliminated. They really have nothing to play for outside of trying to make money for themselves or just pride, professional pride. So will they show up ready to play hard in this football game? Interim head coach, interim defensive coordinator, been a lot of chaos going on. Jackson Darts missed the last couple of games. Now he's back.

Starting point is 00:25:04 So which team is more physically and mentally checked in for this game? We also look at special teams. You know, if you're looking at a close game, which I think we will see, special teams can make a huge difference. We know how good Andy Boragallis has been. But I want to talk about Kyle Williams because, you know, when the receivers were all healthy, I wondered as soon as Antonio Gibson went out with the ACL, would Kyle Williams get a shot at returning kicks? And we saw that last week in Cincinnati. And Kyle Williams was very good.

Starting point is 00:25:36 He had one return of, I think it was, what, 36 yards? And he brings that explosivity, he brings more juice to the kick return game. Fton Chisholm did not have a lot of juice on these kickoff returns. Kyle Williams can break one. So if you get one, if you get one house call from Kyle Williams or you have one big return and he brings it into the Giants territory, that can change the game. That can win you the game. So I'm excited to see Kyle Williams continue to get kick returns.

Starting point is 00:26:08 and, you know, Jeremy Springer, special teams coordinator this week talked about it, talked about the explosiveness that Kyle Williams brings to the kick return game. So I love to see him out there and he could play a pretty big role in this game if it's going to be as close as I think it's going to be. Also, first and second, first and second down on defense. It's always critical, but it's really critical in this game against the Giants. If the Giants are, you know, third and short, third and medium all night, they're going to be. going to convert. They're going to move the ball against you. The Giants have the 11th best offense on third down this year. Jackson Dart again, you talk about the read options and they don't care. A couple of times against the Chicago Bears, we're talking third and long, and Jackson

Starting point is 00:26:52 Dart's running the football and getting first downs. So it's not even down in distance all the time with Jackson Dart and how they deploy him with his legs. Now, of course, one of the million questions about this game, and we talk about Jackson Dart running the football, is he going to run as much as he's run before? They've called a lot of designed runs for Dart since he's been starting. Will that continue after a concussion that cost him two weeks? When you're out for two games, that means it's a pretty serious concussion. So will they actually take a step back and not run Dart as much as they have?

Starting point is 00:27:27 That would impact their offense significantly. But you want to make sure that they're third and medium, third and long because they're just on the outside of the top 10 in the NFL for third down offense. They will convert against you. Of course, that's an interesting matchup because the Giants have been good on third down offensively. The Patriots have been excellent on third down defensively. And that has been really the case all year long. So the battle on third down will be compelling to watch unfold Monday night. You also look at the quick pass game. Is Josh McDaniels going to fully lean in on the quick pass game approach for the

Starting point is 00:28:03 offense. We all know that Josh McDaniels can change the offense around on a week to week basis. He's looking at these defensive ends. He's looking at an offensive line with two new starters and Ben Brown and Vadarian Lowe. It would not be a bad idea in my mind if you're getting the football out of the hands of Drake May quickly on Monday night. So I would like to see them lean in on the quick game approach a little bit more than they have this season. I thought that would be a big part of their offense. And it really hasn't been. It really hasn't been they've more focused on long developing plays now of course when you run play action that's not going to have the quick pass game so i do think they'll play as i mentioned earlier

Starting point is 00:28:43 i do think they'll play offensively with the pa an awful lot with play action bootleg because that has hurt the giant's defense but i would also like to see a good amount of quick pass game mixed in to just make sure you're you're not getting crushed by this pass rush get it out of drake may's hands quickly give him the options quick passes, move the football, move the chains, move forward. All right, so prediction time. This year I am eight and four straight up. I am six, five, and one against the spread.

Starting point is 00:29:16 Could be better than that if it wasn't for a couple things here and there, but that is, of course, what going against the spread is all about, right? It could be different with this one or two things. So six, five, and one against the spread. I don't think the Patriots, last I saw, the Patriots were seven and a half point. favorites. I think that's a little heavy. I don't think the Patriots will cover. I do think the Patriots win at home. I think Monday night will give them the emotional lift that they will need to run through the tape, so to speak, and get to their by week. But I've got the Patriots winning a tight one,

Starting point is 00:29:49 23 to 20. And I would not be surprised if they lost, but I do think the Patriots win a tight game against the Giants. All right. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter. at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Don't forget to hit that like button. Don't forget to subscribe. And for your second listen, get a double dose of the lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Roland and Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. Have a great day. And we will see you Monday night. Don't forget,

Starting point is 00:30:24 Monday night for the live post game.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Gamechanger: How Drake Maye Plans to Attack the New York Giants Defense

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