Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Hard Pass: Should Patriots Dismiss Trading 2027 Draft Picks?

Starting point is 00:00:00 I'm open to dealing draft picks in 2027, but there's one huge caveat to that philosophy that needs to be understood. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Happening. I am your host, Nick Cattels. The interior offensive line has some depth concerns, and the paths have been linked.

Starting point is 00:00:33 So one name in the draft that's been gaining traction. Fans respond to a poll about what they would like the paths to do at number 31. And some of the answers are surprising. But first, trading picks in 2027 is a very layered conversation with one non-starter. Lots of back and forth about the Patriots trading picks in 2027 for A.J. Brown. A lot of conversation because reportedly, as we know, the Eagles do not want to trade A.J. Brown until we get to June because of the cap ramifications, which means the most likely scenario is if you're going to trade for Brown with Philly, you're going to have to send

Starting point is 00:01:15 them picks, not picks from 2026 draft, but of course picks in the 27 draft. So there's been a lot of conversation of whether or not it'd be worth it trading picks from 2027 to bring in A.J. Brown. I don't want to focus on the Brown portion of this as much as the Picks portion of this question. Because in 2027, it is expected. Now, we can't guarantee it. But it is expected that the 27 NFL draft is going to be much better than the 2026 NFL draft. And if I'm looking at this trade, if I'm looking at the possibility of trading for A.J. Brown, or I'm looking at another trade possibility.

Starting point is 00:02:02 Here's where I draw the line. Right now from who's available, who we know to be available, which pretty much comes down to two guys, right? Dexter Lawrence, on Monday we found out that the New York Giants are open to trading Dexter Lawrence and they plan on pretty much trading Dexter Lawrence. So there's one name of somebody who could be an impact player

Starting point is 00:02:27 for the Patriots that, you know, could be available or is available. And the other guy is A.J. Brown. Now, if I'm looking at a Dexter Lawrence or an A.J. Brown, there is no way on God's green earth that I am trading a 2027 first round draft pick. There's no way I'm making a deal like that. So if you want to ask me about A.J. Brown and you want to ask me whether or not I'm willing to trade 2027 draft picks for the receiver, my answer.

Starting point is 00:02:58 is not the first round pick. If you want to ask me about Dexter Lawrence from the New York Giants and whether or not I would be willing to trade 2027 draft picks for Dexter Lawrence, my answer would be not the first round pick. And for Dexter Lawrence, I probably would say no anyway because you already have Christian Barmore and Milton Williams and the Lawrence contract won't quite work with those two other cats. Now, why would I not be willing to trade a first round pick from the 2027 and a lot?

Starting point is 00:03:29 NFL draft. It's because I have no idea where that pick is going to be. And your counter might be, well, Nick, you don't know where any of the picks are going to be because you don't know where you're going to finish. And I understand. But in the first round, that is more crucial to me. I care more about a first round pick than any other pick for obvious reasons. It's a first round pick. And I have no clue what's going to happen. I mean, just imagine if things don't go well for the Patriots in 26. None of us want that. No Patriots fans want it. People covering the team don't want the team to fail. I would love the Patriots to make another run to the playoffs, another deep run in the playoffs. Shoot, I'd love a Super Bowl win in 2026. But if you are being responsible, if you're trying to plan this

Starting point is 00:04:20 thing out and you're trying to do what's right by the franchise, you don't know what's going to happen. in the 2026 season. Imagine if things don't go well. Imagine if you get a deal with a bunch of injuries. Imagine if you end up trading a top 10, top 15 pick in next year's loaded draft for A.J. Brown. I think that's way too much. Trading it for a Dexter Lawrence again would be way too much.

Starting point is 00:04:49 I have no clue where that pick is going to end up. And I would have such a monumental amount of regret. if the 26th season doesn't work out well, and I find out that I traded a top 10, top 15 pick to Philadelphia for a receiver closer to 30 than he is 25. There's nobody available right now that fits the criteria to give up that type of draft asset. I'm not saying the 2027 first round pick is untouchable,

Starting point is 00:05:21 but I'm saying if I'm trading that pick, I'm bringing somebody back to the program that checks a lot of boxes. Now, what are those boxes? If I'm thinking, if I'm even entertaining the idea of trading a first round pick in 2027's NFL draft, the player I'm bringing back has to be in his mid-20s at the oldest. I want somebody who has yet to hit his peak. I want somebody who is walking into their prime or short of their prime.

Starting point is 00:05:54 That's what I want. If you're telling me that it's a Micah Parsons type player like last off season, I would have that conversation because Micah Parsons is that darn good and he is that young. I want a player if I'm trading a first round pick in next year's loaded draft. I want a player who is considered elite, not somebody who was once elite, not somebody who is maybe top tier, not somebody who's 10 to 20 at their position. No, no, no, no, no. I want somebody who is unequivocally elite. Again, I bring up the name Micah Parsons, mid-20s elite at a premier position that also helps. I want to bring somebody in who doesn't have a ton of injury history. I don't have to question the knees or something else.

Starting point is 00:06:46 So if you have somebody who is in their mid-20s or just about to walk into their prime, considered elite at what they do, doesn't have any injury history or not much injury history, and that player is coming off a top tier season, then we can have that conversation. But A.J. Brown is not in his mid-20s. I don't think he's considered elite anymore. He has an injury history, as we know, and he's coming off of a season that wasn't very good. Now, of course, that could be quarterback, that could be offense. I lean that way. But it is, what it is. If I'm trading for AJ Brown, if I am Mike Vrable, Elliott, Willf, Ryan Cowden, and Stretch Stryker, and I'm making this move to bring in

Starting point is 00:07:31 AJ Brown, I'm going off what he just did in 2025. Because what you've got to do is you've got to pay for what you expect that player to be, not what that player has been. So I'm not paying for AJ Brown's best years. I'm paying for what he is right now. So if I'm giving up a 2027 first round pick, I best believe that that player has the ability to be elite for the next few years, if not several years. Now, my belief, when we talk about the trade, right, that we've been talking about for months, my belief is that the Patriots are willing to give up a second round pick for A.J. Brown. I think they'd be willing to give up a second round pick for a lot of players that could help

Starting point is 00:08:18 their football team. The problem is that the Patriots second round pick, because they got to the Super Bowl is towards the end of the second round. So you're picking at 63. If the Pat's second round pick was in the top 10 to 15 of the second round, a deal might already have been done for Brown or somebody else, whoever else could help them. But because the pick is towards the tail end, those teams that would be trading the veterans in these hypothetical scenarios

Starting point is 00:08:47 are telling the Patriots, your second round pick in this year's draft is pretty much a third. third round pick. And this draft, as we know, is not necessarily loaded with a bunch of top tier talent. So that is impacting the value of the Patriots picks. Other picks in 2027, if you deal a second round pick in 2027, it is not as crippling. If you deal a third round pick, it is not as crippling. You can move up, you can move back. You can do a lot of things. You have one full year on the clock to figure out how to deal with that draft pick or draft picks that have been moved. But a first round pick, that's a different ball game.

Starting point is 00:09:28 That's a 50 year on the contract. That's somebody who can make an immediate impact. And if you swing and hit, you can get a Christian Gonzalez, right? You can find somebody of that ilk that is going to impact your team significantly right out of the gates. So if we're talking 2027 picks and you think you're going to bring up my first round pick next year's draft as a as a draft asset that you might think I'm going to move. I'm going to say thanks, but no thanks, unless you have somebody like Micah Parsons on the other end.

Starting point is 00:10:01 Philly, thanks, but no thanks. I'm not trading you my first round pick when I have no idea where it's going to land in that type of a draft. That would be irresponsible. So it makes all the sense in the world for New England and Philly to wait. And then you see a deal that includes a second round pick in 2027. and something else. Another pick, a conditional pick, a day three pick with a player. That's what makes the most sense.

Starting point is 00:10:28 But this idea, if anybody has this idea that the Patriots are going to trade a first round pick in 2027 for A.J. Brown, I just don't think that's going to happen. And I don't think there's a lot of players that are in the league that the Patriots would say yes to a deal like that. I certainly wouldn't. Coming up, wide receiver at number 31 might not be as popular of an idea as I had thought. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Financial stress is something a lot of people are carrying right now.

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Starting point is 00:12:13 Check out the Everyday Club, add free episodes, access to a group chat with other listeners of this show. tap the link in the show notes to find out more, or you can go to lockdown, Patriots.supercast.com. Less than three weeks away from the draft, less than three weeks away, about two and a half weeks away from the 2026 NFL draft. And I've said this before.

Starting point is 00:12:35 I'll say it again, the number 31 pick. It's so unpredictable because you have no idea who is going to fall to you at 31. If anybody that you like or love is going to fall to you at number 31, I was reading earlier today, a take that nobody, nobody, hardly anybody, is appreciating how unpredictable this draft is going to be. There's this thought process that, you know, when we get to Thursday night, round one

Starting point is 00:13:05 of the 26th, there's going to be a number of names called that we did not expect to be called in the spots that they're going to be called. So this draft is just incredibly unpredictable. So I threw a poll out there on Twitter in the world of X and, you know, I asked a question. If you were picking at number 31 right now, what would you do? Now, of course, this was late last week. So I posted we're officially three weeks away from the draft. So it was last Thursday.

Starting point is 00:13:36 I wanted to give it a day or so to get the results and all of that. And I, of course, had to do the mock draft that I'm doing on Mondays here as we'd lead into the draft. But I said, we're officially three weeks away from the draft right now. If you were picking at 31, what would you do? And of course, in the world of Twitter, you get four options. So option one was BPA no matter what. And then I had also offensive tackle at 31, wide receiver at number 31, and

Starting point is 00:14:03 defensive end slash edge. I didn't put slash edge, but defensive end at number 31. Now, interestingly enough, wide receiver was at the very bottom of this And that surprised me. You had offensive tackle third, the third choice, at 17.8%. Wide receiver, only 5.4% of the people were interested in drafting a wide receiver at number 31. Defense event was the second option that was selected at 25.6%. and the most popular choice was best player available, no matter what,

Starting point is 00:14:42 51.2% of the people responded that they would pick best player available no matter what at number 31. So again, it went a BPA, no matter what, defense event, offensive tackle, wide receiver in that order. Now, the fact that best player available ended up being the top option for the people, who voted, I love it. I love it, you know, because there's a lack of desperation there. And I've been saying for the past few weeks, the Patriots cannot feel desperate when they get to pick 31. Because when you feel desperate, you make mistakes. When you reach, you make mistakes. So this philosophical approach of best player available, which of course, Mike Vrable had said that's what he hopes will play out when he was an

Starting point is 00:15:36 Arizona. He also threw out the idea of trading up, trading out, et cetera. Again, I could not give 25 options. But the idea, the philosophical approach of best player available is how you should walk into every draft in a perfect world. You know, there are ways that you can address questions on your team without feeling you've got to use that number one pick on one of those questions. So I just don't want to see desperation from Mike Grable. And I don't think we will see desperation. I don't want to see desperation from the front office.

Starting point is 00:16:12 I don't think we'll see that. But I was happy to see that those who voted more than 50% said, give me best player available. And that was no matter what. So that's, you know, no matter of position aside from quarterback, which is not going to happen. So, you know, best player available, no matter what. the second option being defense event slash edge it's interesting because if you had asked me,

Starting point is 00:16:39 if you walked into a bar in New England and you said, what are the Patriots need to spend the 31st pick on? And you don't know the people you're asking. You're just grabbing random people. I would actually expect more people to talk about offense. You know, the fantasy football mentality, help Drake May, support Drake May. And I don't disagree with the notion. of supporting Drake May.

Starting point is 00:17:04 We've talked about it. But I still feel, and I've said this. I've said this from the beginning of free agency to right now. Edge to me is the number one need on this football team. And so, you know, I love the fact that the top answer was best player available because that really should be your philosophy. I love the fact that the second pick was Edge because if you're not going to go best player available,

Starting point is 00:17:37 filling your best need with a good football player at that position of Edge makes sense. Defensive end, Edge is a real, real need. Third, tackle. Now, this might have been the most surprising that tackle was ahead of wide receiver or maybe it wasn't. Because I do feel like Patriots fans, there are a number of Patriots fans that are starting to kind of lean towards tackle. And even I'm starting to lean towards tackle because I think offensive tackle might end up being the position that has the best player available at 31.

Starting point is 00:18:14 And it's the reason why in my first mock draft going back a week ago, I selected Blake Miller from Clemson. I do feel like there's a little bit more momentum swinging towards take a tackle at 31 because, you know, you're going to have Blake Miller or Maxi Hennichore and one of those guys will be best player available. And also there's not a ton of depth at that position. So, you know, if you're talking about a very close battle between an edge and a tackle or a receiver and a tackle, you're going to lean tackle because those other positions are deeper. I think there's some momentum towards that. even myself, I've started to feel my own momentum swinging that way. Now, why did offensive tackle finish third in the poll? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:19:01 Do Patriots fans, do more Patriots fans feel good where they're at at offensive tackle more than we thought? Is there skepticism about who's actually going to be there? Is there just more of a push to, you know, look towards 2027? wide receiver finishing last was shocking. And it's not because I disagree with it. It's because wide receiver is the quote unquote sexy position. Again, if you walked into a bar and look, New England fans know football better than anybody, I know.

Starting point is 00:19:33 I live there for 30 plus years. I get it. I grew up there. But when you walk into a bar, a random bar, and you ask, I would just imagine more than 5% of the people would answer back, wide receiver. Frank May needs that number one guy. And he does. He does.

Starting point is 00:19:52 I do wonder, though, is this the A.J. Brown impact? Are people just believing that Brown will be a patriot? So they're a lot less concerned with wide receiver at 31 than they would be otherwise. Is this because of Nikiel Harry and the Nikiel Harry PTSD? Or is it because, again, because of the draft depth of the position that you can get a boundary X receiver. in the second, third, maybe even fourth round. So you're not too worried about it.

Starting point is 00:20:22 Are people just concerned because you just saw Jalen Polk going the top of the second round a couple of years ago, and that backfired tremendously? Now, of course, this is just a case study. And really how the board falls is what matters most. These mock drafts, even the mock drafts that I do, they're for fun, they're for research, figure out what makes sense, what might not make sense, who, could be there who's not going to be there and just be ready over the next couple of weeks because there are going to be a lot of leaks coming out.

Starting point is 00:20:54 You know, lying season picks up steam the closer we get to the draft. But I enjoyed looking out those poll results because best player available, edge, tackle, wide receiver, it's a pretty reasonable stacking of that list. But again, it really just matters who falls to you. How does the board fall in what makes sense in that? moment. Next, the interior offensive lineman in this year's draft that could replace Michael Wenu. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. If you're watching us on YouTube,

Starting point is 00:21:39 I appreciate every single one of you. Let's continue to kick the bag out of the YouTube algorithm. Again, press that thumbs up, throw a comment in your thoughts on the first couple segments of today's episode. Don't forget to subscribe. We are now over 9,300 subscribers trying to march towards that 10,000 number by the draft. Interior Offensive Line, speaking of the draft, is 100% a need. Elijah Vera Tucker's injury history, Michael Wenu is walking into the final year of his contract extension that he signed in 2024. He is set to be an unrestricted free agent after the end of this upcoming season. And it sounds like the Patriots might have a target.

Starting point is 00:22:25 Or at least there's a name that is one of the targets for the Patriots at Interior Offensive Line. And it's a pretty interesting name. Ryan Fowler posted this was a couple weeks ago. A standout of Senior Bowl Week, Auburn Interior Offensive lineman, Jeremiah Wright, has been a talking point for teams, a late day, two grades, scattered across the league, met with Patriots brass, including Elliot Wolf. Jeremiah Wright also, rumors are that he could be taking the top 30 visit Patriots.

Starting point is 00:23:01 Taylor Kiles, he actually posted that Lance Zerline. I love using Lance Zerlind's work from NFL network, NFL.com, as you know. Taylor Kiles pointed out the similarities between Jeremiah Wright and Michael Wenu. if you read Lance Zerlind's overview in his scouting report of each player. On right, Zerline wrote, Wright is a ground and pound right guard with excellent power at the point of attack. There are concerns about his hand placement and pass protection, though. He has the size slash power to go head to head in NFL gap and power concepts

Starting point is 00:23:38 playing with a nasty finisher's demeanor. That would fit the list, right? The nasty finish. That's a Mike Vrable kind of guy. However, average instincts and a lack of foot quickness leave him vulnerable to athletic rushers and gaming fronts. Wright is a limited athlete with inconsistencies that might not be correctable, but he's tough, strong, and has pro-ready traits that should make him a day three pick. Again, so Lance Zerlion line has him as a day three pick.

Starting point is 00:24:05 Ryan Fowler said that there are some late day two grades scattered across the league. Now, scattered that could mean, you know, two or three teams. We don't know. Now you look at Lance Zerlindon's report on Mike Owenu. Powerful and wide. Owenu's natural play strength is somewhat offset by his below average athletic ability. With better hand placement and attention to footwork, he can take a step forward as a drive blocker with the ability to move bodies around.

Starting point is 00:24:33 But he'll be a scheme-specific prospect who could struggle against quick upfield players and sub-packaged rushers. He has backup guard ability and potential as a day three pick. very, very similar write-ups from Lance Zerline when you look at Jeremiah Wright from Auburn and Michael Wenu from Michigan going back a few years ago. And it's a very fascinating thing that we can do. Look back at these scouting reports,

Starting point is 00:25:02 comp these players, and say, oh, a lot of similarities between these two guys. So if you're going to remove Michael Wenu for 2027, makes a lot of sense for a guy who's scouting, reporting report almost mirrors Owenus to be the guy who replaces them. Now, the ground and pound with below average athleticism, I do wonder, is that what this coaching staff truly wants? Obviously, Bill Belichick had no problem drafting Michael Wenow.

Starting point is 00:25:31 You know, I think it was what, the sixth round. He had no problem drafting Michael Wenou and taking a swing on the bigger, less athletic type guy. But I do think it's worth the conversation here with Mike Vrable and Doug Marone and Josh McDaniels, this offensive staff, is that really what they want? Do they really want a ground and pound below average athlete? Because when you look at what they've done, you know, Will Campbell, tremendous athlete, Elijah Vera Tucker, tremendous athlete, Jared Wilson, tremendous athlete.

Starting point is 00:26:06 All three of those guys, Uber athletic traits. So is Jeremiah right the kind of fit? Maybe. The other thing you have to question. You know, when you look at this on paper, it makes sense that you got one more year left of Michael Wenou. He finishes his run in 2026. You're ready to move on from him. You just simply slide in the draft pick from 2026.

Starting point is 00:26:37 you slide in Jeremiah Wright, easy, peasy, no big deal. But what if Michael Wenow makes it really tough to do that? Michael Wenu played his best football, maybe ever in a Patriots uniform for a couple of months during this past season. This is somebody who got all pro votes, not pro bowl. We're talking about there were people that were looking at Michael Wenow and saying, he should be at least in the conversation to be an all pro because of what he did in 2025. What if he plays that level of football from beginning to end in

Starting point is 00:27:15 26? It's going to be a very difficult decision to make, right? Like if you're talking about somebody who's playing at that level, at right guard, do you really want to create another question on your offensive line when that guy put that type of season together and just move him out because you drafted Jeremiah right? on day three or late day two, whatever it was in 2026, or do you keep Michael Wenu because you know what he brings to the table?

Starting point is 00:27:42 And can you trust Michael Wenu? Of course, there have been questions about his weight. Does he come into shape? You know, when he walks into camp, is he always in shape? Not necessarily. He tends to get there eventually. But we have to remember, right? We can't be damaged by them.

Starting point is 00:27:58 But we have to remember the mistakes that Bill Belichick made at the interior. your offensive line. He was too quick to move on from Joe Tuny. I'm not calling Michael Wenow Joe Tony, but he was too quick to move on from Joe Tuny. He was too quick to move on from Shaq Mason. That's a better comparison, right? So don't be too quick to move on from Michael Wenow. If he continues to play really good football, I don't know, maybe you just keep him in New England. But having a backup plan and drafting somebody like Jeremiah Wright, just in case Owenu doesn't play well, makes a lot of sense. Now, a day three pick to me would make more sense.

Starting point is 00:28:39 I don't know if I'd be spending, you know, a day two pick on an interior offensive lineman. You have two fourth round picks, a fifth and four sixth round picks. Owenu, as I said, was a sixth round pick. So, you know, you look at maybe drafting a guy in the fourth round, fifth round, one of those six round picks. maybe a draft two. And by the way, where's Caden Wallace in this conversation? Does he have any shot of making the team? Because he moved to guard last year.

Starting point is 00:29:10 But keep that name in mind. Jeremiah Wright. Auburn, Interior Offensive lineman, could be a fit for the Patriots. I would say more day three than day two. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen. for being in Everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio.

Starting point is 00:29:31 Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you. Get Lockdown Patriots ad-free, plus members-only discord access and more. Hit a lockdownpatriots.com or check the link in the show notes to learn even more.

Starting point is 00:29:49 Have a great day, and we will see you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Hard Pass: Should Patriots Dismiss Trading 2027 Draft Picks?

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