Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Help Wanted: Patriots’ Need for Urgency at Defensive Edge Growing?

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's time to set the clock on when to pull the trigger on a deal for an edge. This is Locked on Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on podcast network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattels on today's show, a Christian Gonzalez social media post after Gonzoomis Tuesday's joint practice has caught our attention. second segment with Eli Rairden looking ahead of schedule, we set realistic expectations for the

Starting point is 00:00:42 rookie tight end. But first, we are getting closer to calling for the paths to make a significant move at defensive end. I have no worries with the interior defensive line and their pass rush. Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, when healthy, he was limited before Tuesday's joint practice against the Colts. Corey Durden, Joshua Farmer. We've talked. We've talked. about the depth on the interior of that defensive line, and many of those guys can get after the quarterback. I'm not worried about that part of the defensive line, but the questions we had about the edge position, they are still lingering for the overall group. And we've talked about it over the past couple of weeks. Harold Landry is still not on the field. Elijah Ponder had a

Starting point is 00:01:29 very quiet week plus leading into the joint practice, Gabe Accus, just hitting the field, etc, et cetera. The good news is that Elijah Ponder showed out somewhat against the Colts during yesterday's joint practice. Here's what Andrew Callahan wrote at the Boston Herald. Welcome back, Elijah Ponder. After a disappointingly quiet stretch that lasted more than a week, Ponder popped multiple times in 11 on 11's with a would-be strip sack of Daniel Jones on the Colts final drive

Starting point is 00:02:02 plus a drawn holding penalty and batted pass earlier in practice. Now when it comes to Ponder, we need to hear about this and this impact more consistently from Elijah Ponder to build the ultimate optimism. But not everyone was great or even good in the first joint practice of this training camp. Back to Andrew Callahan, who wrote this about. about Gabe Accus. Accus talliday would be sack on his first snap of team drills, but was invisible most of the day.

Starting point is 00:02:35 Invisible most of the day. We don't know what we're going to see from Gabe Accus on a consistent basis, especially after him missing so much time, missing rookie minicamp, mandatory minicamp, the first few days of training camp. And he might pop from time to time. But are you going to get that consistency from Gabe Accus? that you need. I'm not sold just yet. Dremont Jones. He's been okay from time to time during this

Starting point is 00:03:04 camp, but reportedly he's been far from dominant and he's been far from consistently impactful. To me, the Philadelphia Eagles joint practices next week, the last shot for me. It's the last shot for me. I need to see tangible, significant changes from the guys that you have in camp right now. I need to see that happen by the end of those two joint practices next week, Wednesday and Thursday, against the Philadelphia Eagles. And if I don't see that, if I'm Mike Grable and the staff, I'm making a move. If I'm Elliot Wolf, I'm making phone calls because I'm not going to walk into this regular season with an unknown in Harold Landry, a very inconsistent Gabe Accus, an inconsistent Elijah Ponder, a just okay Draymont Jones. in a hair in there, Braden Swinton, or Xavier Holmes, or Quintavius Hutchins. To me, that's not enough.

Starting point is 00:04:04 You are a contending team in the NFL. You are one of the top teams in the AFC. And I am not walking into this regular season with what I have at edge if they continue to give you what they've given you for the next week. It's just not going to happen on my watch. I would look to make a deal. So I'm giving it seven, eight more days. If by the end of that second joint practice against the Eagles,

Starting point is 00:04:32 we're still having the same types of conversations we've had about the edge group for the past several weeks, you've got to add to that room. And I would revisit an off-season hypothetical. Seth Walder of ESPN recently wrote, proposing five big trades. One of the trades that Seth Walder of ESPN proposed had to do with the Patriots and the Giants. And this is a name that we discussed during the offseason, Kvon, Tibado. The Patriots would receive Kavon Tibido in a 2027 fifth round pick.

Starting point is 00:05:10 In return, the Giants would get a 2027 third round pick. Now, again, that is a proposed deal by ESPN, Seth Walder. have no idea if it would cost more, if it would cost less for the Patriots to make that kind of trade. But I'm going to take Seth Walder's proposal and I'm going to say yes to it. If we're sitting here eight days from now, still concerned about the edge position, I would pull the trigger on that trade. I would give up a third round pick in next year's draft for Kvon Tibido in a 2027 fifth. I would do the deal. I'm concerned about the Patriots being too dependent on Harold Landry. Now, they obviously know more about Landry than we do, but I still have those concerns.

Starting point is 00:05:56 Landry has not practiced. He hasn't even been limited. The conversation around Landry from the head coach has left me asking even more questions. So I'm not ready right now to bank on Landry. And if you get to next week by the end of those Eagles joint practices, and Landry still hasn't been out there. And he's still a question mark, then I have even more concerned about Landry in 2026. If you trade for somebody like Tibido, you are getting a surefire veteran impact player at edge. And that type of player would make a significant difference day one.

Starting point is 00:06:37 And I feel like if we're having the same questions eight days from now, I feel like adding a player who is a veteran impact guy that could make a significant difference would be more than worthwhile. And I know the 2027 draft is stacked. I understand. I get it. But again, you are a contending team in the AFC. And if you want to get better and if you feel like you have too many questions, too many unknowns at the edge, this is how you get better. This is how you answer those questions. Seth Walder, he wrote about some of the stats from 10,000. Thibodeau, his 9.9% pass rush win rate last year, better than Draymond Jones. Again, Tibido was 9.9%. Jones was 8.6%.

Starting point is 00:07:30 Better pass rusher given that analytic than Draymond Jones. As a matter of fact, Tibado is two years removed from having the 16th best pass rush win rate in the NFL. Back in 2024, Tibido's PRWR was 16.8%. Again, you look at Jones last year, 8.6%. So immediately you get juice at edge. Immediately you get a pass rusher who can get after the quarterback at a better clip than Jones. At a better clip than Ponder.

Starting point is 00:08:07 Probably at a better clip than Gabe Accus. Seth Walder also wrote, you know, Tibdo is not a kind of guy where he's just a pass rush demon and can't defend the run. As a matter of fact, when you look at 2025, Tibido's run-stop win rate was above average, 27.9%. So you're getting an edge that not only can get after the quarterback, he is somebody who plays above average against the run. He is only 25 years old. He has plenty of gas left in that tank.

Starting point is 00:08:43 Relative athletic score, something I've talked about an awful lot around the draft. Tibido's RAS was a 9.63. At the time, in 2022, you would go back to 1987. And from 1987 to 22, there were 1,503 qualified defensive ends with a relative athletic score. Out of those 1,503 defensive ends, Tibido finished 56th. We're talking about an elite athlete at edge. He's a perfect size fit for Mike Vrable's defensive system. Tibido is 6'4, 254 pounds.

Starting point is 00:09:27 We've talked about the mark that is perfect for a Mike Vrable defense at edge 250 to 255. Kvon, 254. And I know he's walking into a contract year. I know that contract year is going to cost you $14.75 million, but the Patriots have a bunch of cap space, they can easily absorb that contract. And if Tibido walks after 2026, which is more likely than not, given Christian Gonzalez's situation, Drake May's situation, if Tibido walks, you could end up with a compensatory pick for the 2028 draft.

Starting point is 00:10:11 So you could get back some of that draft capital via the compensatory formula. So yes, I would be in. I would be in on that deal. I'm giving this edge group eight more days. If they are not there yet, quote unquote, by the end of the Eagles joint practices, I would have a ton of urgency if I were the Patriots to add at that position, to add a veteran. to add a veteran, to add a guy that you know can do the job on Sundays. And the guy I would be looking at is Tibido, the team I would be calling is the New York Giants.

Starting point is 00:10:47 I want your thoughts. Throw a comment in. I love Eli Raarden. You know that if you've listened long enough. And Eli Raarden looks ahead of schedule. So why am I trying to pump the brakes on his rookie season? Find out next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network.

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Starting point is 00:12:12 Run your business smarter with Square and get started today. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. By the way, there's a new Patriots Lockdown channel. It's Patriots Hit, hosted by Zach Blackerby, shorter video clips, shorter segments. You got shorts on social media, short, short, short. It's a shot of espresso for your Patriots coverage. It's an addition to this podcast. and what we do here with Lockdown Patriots.

Starting point is 00:12:41 So check it out. Patriots hit hosted by Zach Blackerby, a new Patriots Locked on channel. All right. I'm going to get to Eli Raarden. And I'm going to give you realistic expectations for his rookie season. But first, hit a couple of comments. Soup. I think Gabe Accus can hit the ground running.

Starting point is 00:12:59 I'm worried about Brayden Swinson's development. Yeah, look, I went into this camp saying if Brayden Swinson can make any impact, that's a huge improvement. I'm not banking on him to do much of anything. He lost weight. He lost about 15 pounds, which is good. He has flashed from time to time during camp, but it's not like he's dominating. And I would not be walking into 2026 feeling like Brayden Swinson is the answer, right?

Starting point is 00:13:23 So appreciate the comment. Sue. Let's get to 618 racing. We traded a first for A.J. Brown. We are going in now, so we need to make a move for an edge. That can be part of the argument, right? You already gave up that 2028 first. You made that move for a 29-year-old A.J. Brown.

Starting point is 00:13:41 A.J. Brown, you're hoping has two or three years left. He might have one to two years left. We'll see how this unfolds throughout the season. But if you're willing to make that type of move, then if your edge position is not answering the questions that we had, then, yeah, again, I would be in on the Kavanaugh-tybado hypothetical in that scenario. Corey D. says, Colch triggered. Not so much, Corey D.

Starting point is 00:14:06 I would say that just training camp triggered is what I would say. And Gildridge, yeah, I'd be calling the Giants as well. So don't forget to like, click that thumbs up, give us a like, throw more comments in. Do you want to see the Patriots make a move within the next eight or nine days, especially if we don't see significant changes at edge from the performance standpoint after the Philadelphia Eagles joint practices are finished up. So I want your comments. those likes and comments. Help us with the algorithm here on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:14:35 And don't forget to subscribe. 11,000 subscribers is the next goal. Eli Raarden. All right. So Eli Raarden is gaining momentum throughout camp. It feels like Raarden is ahead of schedule. Andrew Callahan at the Boston Herald wrote this after the joint practice against the Colts. Rairden was the only pass catcher to see four or more targets and catch them all. For a third straight practice, Hunter Henry has taken fewer first team reps in favor of Rairden.

Starting point is 00:15:07 Interesting. The rookies simply become a more consistent and trusted target for both quarterbacks. Rairden is winning more decisively at the top of his routes, creating enough separation to pull away, which helps immensely as a long strider who can win short but primarily threatens defenses at the intermediate level. How Rairden handles with more physical coverage bears watching moving. forward. His loan target and catch from Drake May against the Colts was on an in-cut over the middle where he got a free release as an in-line player. So what are realistic expectations for Eli Raarden as he looks ahead of schedule during this

Starting point is 00:15:47 camp? My first question is, how much does Raarden play tomorrow night against the Colts? First preseason game. We know that Drake May is not going to play, or at least the Patriots, do not anticipate him playing. I'd be shocked if May is out there. I'd be shocked if a lot of starters are out there. I'd be shocked, frankly, if there are any starters out there. Maybe you have some of the offensive line. We'll see how the Patriots manage things.

Starting point is 00:16:15 But how much does Rairden play in that first preseason game? Tight end is thin with the injury to Julian Hill. You have a lot of inexperienced players in the mix. second year UDFA, C.J. Dupree, rookie UDFA and Tanner Arkin, rookie and Eli Rairden. So, you know, do you want those guys to get experience? Do you want Rairdon out there getting experience? If so, how much experience do you want him to get in the first preseason game? You are also trying to manage Hunter Henry, which is why I believe Rairden has received more first team reps than Henry, the last two or three practices.

Starting point is 00:16:52 it's because you're managing Hunter Henry, who's in his 30s. So how much will Rairdon play tomorrow night? I also think that the Eagles joint practices is going to present a huge challenge to Rairden. Because when you look at the Eagles and their defensive talent, specifically the guys who could cover tight ends, Zach Bonn at linebacker, Jihad Campbell at linebacker, both guys very athletic. Then you look at somebody like Cooper DeGine, the nickelback,

Starting point is 00:17:20 who might be covering the tight end from time to time in the slot. You've got Marcus Epps, old friend Marcus Epps at free safety. So the Eagles, they have a number of talented defensive players who are likely to line up opposite of Rairdon. That's going to be a huge challenge for him during those joint practices. But for me with Rairden, as we get closer to this season, and I want to make sure I highlight this, it's not about the quantity.

Starting point is 00:17:48 I don't think Rairden is going to be a volume guy in this offense, okay? You have too many mouths to feed. Way too many dudes you're going to throw the football to before you start thinking about the rookie tight end. But I would just like to see Rairden have a tangible impact in the red zone. Can he catch a few touchdowns? That would be a great impact for this offense. I would like to see the occasional explosive play from Rairden,

Starting point is 00:18:16 which we talked about, going back to before the draft, you know, can Rairden give you that every once in a while 20 to 30 yard seam shot at tight end. If he's giving you some impact in the red zone and he's giving you some impact with explosive plays, then he's doing his job. Now, I want to talk about expectations and realistic expectations. A lot of us, we live in the Patriots bubble, but what I like to do is look at this from 30,000 feet. And I like to do. And I like to to look at other rookie tight ends and what they've done. Specifically, rookie tight ends who were drafted in the third round because I'm not going to compare Rairden to a guy who was drafted in the first

Starting point is 00:19:00 round. It's a different level of prospect. So I did some research. I dug in deep for y'all. We all know that drafts are like snowflakes. Every single draft is different. Prospects are different. a guy that gets drafted in the third round, one year might not get drafted until the fifth round the next year. Next year's draft is stacked, right? So a lot of guys who were drafted back in April in the second or third round and next year's draft might have to wait until the third, fourth, or fifth round. So we all understand that. With that said, there were 11 tight ends drafted in the third round, the five prior drafts to this. draft. So we're talking 21, 22, 23, 24, 25. There were 11 tight ends that were drafted in the

Starting point is 00:19:53 third round, the five prior drafts. The best one by far was Harold Fanon from last year's draft in 2025. Harold Fanon's rookie season, 72 catches, 731 yards and six touchdowns. But how about the other guys. Well, I looked at the average rookie season for third round tight ends from the prior five drafts. Again, there were 11 of those guys, but I'm going to look at 10 of them because one of them, Cameron Lottu in 2023, he actually didn't play in his rookie season. So when you look at the 10 tight ends that were drafted in the third round in the prior five drafts to this past draft, When you include Harold Fannin's numbers, when you include his productivity, the average rookie season for a third round tight end, 20 catches, 214 yards, 1.4 touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:20:56 That's the average rookie tight end who was taken in the third round. The last 10 of those guys before Eli Redden before this draft class, 20 catches, 214 yards and just barely over a touchdown. That's with Harold Fanon. If you take Harold Fanon out, the other nine tight ends that were drafted in the third round have averaged 14 catches, 157 yards, and less than a touchdown in their rookie season.

Starting point is 00:21:29 That's the reality. When you draft a tight end in the third round, if you look at the five drafts before this past April's draft, you're getting a guy who's likely going to catch 20 footballs, 15 to 20 footballs for 150, 200 yards, and hopefully a touchdown or two. That's the reality. So I'm here to tell you, I love Eli Rairdon. I'm looking forward to watching him play. But it would be a huge win for Rarden, the Patriots, and all of us watching this football team. It would be a huge win if the Rookie tight end finished with, let's say, 30 catches, 300 to 350 yards and two or three touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:22:14 That would put him on the path of a Tucker Kraft who was drafted in the third round or a Greg Dulcich who was drafted in the third round. And that's just being realistic. A cryptic social media post after missing practice in some conflicted reporting, all the smoke over the last 24 hours surrounding Christian Gonzalez and more coming up next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Lockdown Patriots is brought to by Fandul. Baseball fans, if you think you know who's hitting a homer today, Fandul is giving you a free chance to call your shot with Daily Dingers. It's easy to play.

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Starting point is 00:24:02 joint practice. Is conflict a word? If not, I'll say there's some conflict within the reporting of Christian Gonzalez's absence from yesterday's joint practice against the Colts. Greg Bedard posted on Tuesday night, I was told Gonzalez's absence was due to the minor injury sustained at the end of Monday's practice. Ian Rappaport, meanwhile, was on the Pat McAfee show and he said, quote, it's interesting to me that yesterday the Patriots agreed to terms with Hunter Henry on a new contract extension,

Starting point is 00:24:32 and then the next day, Christian Gonzalez isn't practicing. I think there's a good chance that Devin Witherspoon deal gets done. I don't know if it's going to be this year or next year for Christian Gonzalez, unquote. Well, let's go to the source. Christian Gonzalez went to Instagram on Tuesday, and he was quoting a gunna song, rapper Gunna. The name of the song is time reveals, be careful what you wish for. And the specific quote that Christian Gonzalez posted on Instagram was should have been done by now, but you didn't know how to handle the feeling.

Starting point is 00:25:06 Now, it's dangerous to read too much into social media posts. But I actually looked up this song. I wanted to see more of what this song was about. I don't listen to Gunna, so I wasn't sure. And again, this is from time reveals. Be careful what you wish for. Here's some more of the song that Christian Gonzalez posted on Instagram. I'm tired of playing.

Starting point is 00:25:31 You had your chances with the boss and killed the plans. I see some bleep. Don't go as planned. I understand. started to learn life and you'll just stand just as a man. I'm trying to get back the way I hustled and felt the thrill. I'm trying to stay rich so I can cover every bill. Again, don't want to read into every single solitary post on social media by Christian

Starting point is 00:25:53 Gonzalez. But if you read those lines, if you look at what Christian Gonzalez posted, should have been done by now, but you didn't know how to handle the feeling. and then you go deeper into the song by Gunna talking about how seeing some stuff that doesn't go as planned, started to learn life, stand as a man, trying to stay rich so I can cover every bill. If you want to read into it, if you want to read into it, you certainly would look at those lyrics and that song and say that Christian Gonzalez is sending a message to the Patriots. Now, I don't know if he is.

Starting point is 00:26:34 He has handled himself perfectly up until what's going on in the last 24 hours or so. He's handled the media perfectly. He's been out there practicing, full pads, working his tail off. He has been the quintessential leader, and he's been the best player on the practice field. Looking at this post, if you look at the chain of events, right, the Hunter Henry extension gets done. Gonzalez isn't out there on Tuesday. Rapaport says what he says. And this is all on the heels of Mike Giarty saying that on his podcast,

Starting point is 00:27:12 that Christian Gonzalez is not only looking to beat Devin Witherspoon's contract, he's looking to beat it by a quote unquote a lot. So, you know, at the Celtics game doing the money symbol, this IG post, again, I'm not going to go too far with it, but I think it is noteworthy. And it's absolutely worthwhile to discuss, you know, what was posted by the guy who's in the middle of a contract negotiation who happened to miss the joint practice. And if you're just going strictly off those lyrics from Gunna, it would read as a message to the Patriots. Now, as far as what Mike Giardi said, huge difference between, you know, if you're looking for 32 million APY and 35, 36 million APY.

Starting point is 00:28:01 Because if Christian Gonzalez, if Gonzalez and his agents want to reset the cornerback market, that's a different conversation. And if the agency is asking to reset the market, if that's what Gonzo wants, then I actually start putting the onus on the agency's ask, because that's a huge ask. Instead of bumping it by a million or two on the market, if you're going in asking for a $5 million, $6 million annual bump, that's a huge. huge ask. It's what the Houston Texans did with Derek Stingley years ago. But not every team has done that. Another note about Patriots, the Patriots defense from the joint practice, Christian Ellis

Starting point is 00:28:45 left early with an injury. Andrew Callahan posted that Ellis left practice was attended to by members of the training staff looked like his lower leg. This is something to stick a pin in. We'll see if Christian Ellis is playing tomorrow night against the Colts. We'll see if. We'll see if Ellis is back at practice, obviously, linebacker, not the deepest position on this team. Robert Spillane's 30 coming off injury. If Ellis misses any time, that puts a ton of pressure on Chad Muma and Khalil Jacobs.

Starting point is 00:29:17 Hopefully it's something minor. Hopefully it's something that does not cost Ellis much, if any time. And hopefully this is all forgotten by the time we get to those joint practices next week. One last note, I've got to tie this up here. We talked about Caden Wallace getting released on Monday's podcast. Well, he wasn't released. He was traded. The Pats were going to release Cade and Wallace.

Starting point is 00:29:41 The Dolphins were interested in Cade and Wallace. A deal for Wallace happened. The Patriots traded Wallace in a 2029 seventh round pick to the dolphins for a 2027 sixth round pick. Better than nothing. Doesn't make you feel better about the Wallace draft pick. But it is better to get a six. sixth round pick and trade Wallace in a seventh than just cutting them loose into the wilderness. And Mike Reese updated the picks the Patriots now have in next year's draft.

Starting point is 00:30:12 They have a first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and now the Patriots have four sixth round picks in the 2027 draft. And with a draft as deep as 2027 is expected to be, four sixth round picks, that's a lot of lottery tickets and or sweeteners to deals. So rather get something than nothing for Kaden Wallace. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:30:46 Comment about my rapping skills. I think I did fairly well getting through the Gunnerverse. Thank you for making Lockdown Patriots your first listen today. For your second listen, check out the Lockdown NFL Scouting channel that hosts Kyle and Joe Marino, they will take care of you during this training camp season. Find lockdown NFL scouting on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day. Talk to you next time.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Help Wanted: Patriots’ Need for Urgency at Defensive Edge Growing?

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