Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - High-Stakes: Will C.J. Stroud or Drake Maye Dominate in AFC Showdown?

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's the divisional round of the playoffs. One team played great defense last weekend. Another team has a great defense. Let's get to the crossover episode of Lockdown Texans and Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on NFL crossover. Part of the Locked on podcast network. Your team every day. What's happening?

Starting point is 00:00:29 I'm your host of Lockdown Patriots, Nick Cattels, along with the co-host of the Lockdown Texans or host of the Texans, John Hickman, for a post-season cross. And of course, this is the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's crossover episode in the third segment, we'll tell you how each side can punch their ticket to the AFC championship game. In the second segment, get ready for some marquee matchups. But first, it's a big time game with some big time storylines heading in. Crossover Thursday is presented by prize picks. Download the prize picks app today and use code lockdown NFL together.

Starting point is 00:01:07 get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Again, John Hickman locked on Texans, Nick Cattell's locked on Patriots with you. John, let's start here. The biggest story in Houston as they head to New England this weekend after dominating the Steelers in that fourth quarter on Monday night. I think it's two stories. Number one, the defense will travel, right? That was Houston's first playoff win on the road going up at Pittsburgh, that environment, no problem. The defense show why it wasn't a problem.

Starting point is 00:01:39 And honestly, a lot of people have to understand and realize this. The Texans have been traveling at home. They've been doing everything over the past two months, and they ain't lost. Right. And so I think that's the number one story nationally, right? But also attached to that, maybe more so locally, but it is a huge story in development, the possibility of going into this game with no Nico Collins.

Starting point is 00:02:00 And on the flip side of that, the Patriots may actually have Christian Gonzalez. He practiced today. He's on the fourth stage of, I think, the concussion protocol. So when we look at Houston going up to Foxborough, they're going to be taking on a good team. A lot of people like to say the Patriots hadn't played anybody. You got to play who's in front of you, right? And that's a good defense in New England. That's a good offense in New England.

Starting point is 00:02:24 Not having your best of the best guys out there matters. And I think in many ways, Houston may miss Nico Collins if he doesn't play. So I think that's a part of the biggest storyline right here in Houston, and no Nico collars potentially for a big game on Sunday afternoon. Yeah, you know, I said this on the podcast yesterday, just giving a little bit of background for the Texans, for listeners and viewers of lockdown Patriots, these are two of the hottest teams in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:02:53 And you could say they might be the two hottest teams in the NFL, right? I mean, the Texans have won 10 straight games, the Patriots have won, what is it, 14 of their last 15. So you've got two teams who are super hot, and two teams that played their best, football, I would say the Patriots in stretches last weekend. Drake May was not great in the first half, of course, but was much better in the second half.

Starting point is 00:03:14 But these two teams had the most convincing wins during open weekend, right? The wild card weekend, you had a bunch of crazy back and forth, close games. And, you know, that fourth quarter again, it was close until the fourth quarter. And then the Texans ran away from it. I do want to ask you, though, John, Nico Collins, for people, for Patriots fans who who might not see a lot of him, might not understand how important to the offense he is. What does he bring to C.J. Stroud in that offense and how big of a loss would that be?

Starting point is 00:03:46 The most underrated receiver in the NFL. That's what Nico Collins is. Nico Collins for Houston, majority of this season, especially when he's been on the field, this is his second game. Potentially he'll miss. We'll see what happens throughout the week. I think the final injury report for Houston will come out on

Starting point is 00:04:05 Thursday, right? So maybe Friday. We'll see. I'm sorry. But for Nico Collins, he is the ultimate ceiling razor for an offense that has struggle. I call offensively challenged, right? A new offensive coordinator, Nick Kelly, former Patriot coach, right? We know that background. He gets over to LA, so he's bringing over two philosophies. And that could be hard for players to, you know, kind of deal with from a receiver standpoint, just put the ball in the area where he can catching, he's going to come down with it nine times out of ten to make a play. So you look at what Nico Codas brings to the game, six four, great cash radius. It's hard to overthrow him, even though there's been some overthrow issues this year. And there's another thing, man,

Starting point is 00:04:50 let's just say Gunzo plays, right? The New England Patriots will be with their cornerback one, cornerback two, nickel cornerback. So you're looking at a DB room that will be healthy enough to play, right? And so you want a, you want a playmaker like Nico Collins out there who can do pretty much everything on the football field. Even though he's 6'4, he'll run around like he's 5.11, right? So he has a shift in this. He has the ability to get open, especially on end-breaking rounds where we know C.J. Stroud loves to throw throughout his career.

Starting point is 00:05:23 So that's why when I look at the most underrated receiver in the NFL, that's why I point to Nico. It ain't just because I cover him is because without Nico, we're looking at an offensively challenged team. that would be devastated without him this year. He has carried this offense a lot when the run game wasn't working. Even when C.J. Stroud have his miscues. There's no other wide receiver two on the other side of him trying to elevate a wide receiver room that has two rookies and a receiver in Christian Kirk who bought out on Sunday. But that was the first time we seen it all year trying to pull those guys along.

Starting point is 00:05:58 He's the ultimate eraser of just bad things around him. And he used to, we'll miss him if he doesn't play on Sunday. Yeah, you mentioned Christian Gonzalez a couple times. That's the biggest story, I think, in New England right now is his availability. And he was out on the practice field, as you mentioned, on Wednesday. He had the non-contact red jersey on, but the fact that he's already made it to like phase four of that protocol would seemingly look like a pretty good sign for him to play on Sunday. So, and that really changes a lot.

Starting point is 00:06:28 You know, I mean, I think he's the second most important defender on the team behind Milton Williams, I thought Milton Williams before his injury was the second best player. You could argue that Gonzalez is the most important defender. You can go back and forth between Milton Williams and Christian Gonzalez. But, you know, without Nico Collins, if he doesn't play, I mean, I think, you know, it'll be fascinating to see how the Patriots deploy their corners because, you know, it does allow the Patriots, if Christian Gonzalez is out there, it allows the Patriots defense to be multiple. It allows them to spin the dial like they did against the chargers.

Starting point is 00:07:01 we didn't see as much of that in the regular season as we saw in Wild Card Weekend, just the disguising and playing cover and match man and stuff like that. So it'll be interesting to see how they attack this Houston offense. But if Christian Gonzalez can't go, now I think you play less man, now that you can't open the playbook up as much as you do with him. And you've got Charles Woods and Alex Austin would probably be. be the next men up. Obviously, they are not Christian Gonzalez. It would put more heat on Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones. It would put more heat on Carlton Davis and Marcus Jones. So,

Starting point is 00:07:42 yes, Christian Gonzalez being able to play on Sunday would exponentially help this defense, which took a big step last weekend. I mean, I think people looking at this defense, rightfully so, had some questions. That was their most impressive performance last weekend. Now, the question is, can they follow that up? I have a question for you that I think is, I think is all. also a big storyline, or at least for me personally, my texting listeners out there know where my heart resides. So they're comfortable with me asking this question. But first game back for a player that I really loved during the entire draft process,

Starting point is 00:08:16 and that's Will Campbell. Yeah. That was the first week. And it was ugly for the rook, right? It was ugly for their left side altogether, but it was a rough day for the rook. And so when I look at bigger storylines and how it could, you know, matchup with what Houston has going on, with what New England has going on.

Starting point is 00:08:34 They're going to clash on Sunday. Just where is Will Campbell this week compared to where he was last week going into their first playoff game? You know what? I'm going to use that as a tease because I think that's going to be part of my marquee matchups coming up, John. So we'll have our marquee matchups next as we continue with us postseason crossover episode of Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Texans.

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Starting point is 00:11:39 throw a comment in as well. We want your prediction for this football game. And don't forget to subscribe. You could subscribe to both. Lockdown Patriots, Lockdown, Texans. All right, John Hickman with me here from Lockdown Texans. Nick Cattels with you from Lockdown Patriots. Now, John, usually, when I'm hosting these crossovers, I hand this off to the co-host and say, what's your marquee matchup? But since you asked me about Will Campbell, and since I had the tease,

Starting point is 00:12:08 I'm actually going to start off if you don't mind. Can I tell you why I ask you that question? Sure. Text messages, calls, tweets, what Will Camber going to do against that defense after the performance on Monday night? And I'm like, guys, I love Will Campbell, but I can admit,

Starting point is 00:12:27 It was rough, and I could also admit, hey, man, that was scary on Monday night. De Neal and Will and the guys on it. That was scary. So, that's why I asked you that question. Well, I think I want to start with the marquee matchup with Morgan Moses. And the reason why I bring up Morgan Moses is because if he can handle the right side of the offensive line, if he can take care of what's going on over there. And I thought he was mostly excellent last week against the charger. If Morgan Moses, who's been mostly good all year long, if he takes.

Starting point is 00:12:57 takes care of business, which is no easy task, obviously, because as you just mentioned, John, you've got those two edges, right? But if you can, if you can trust Morgan Moses one-on-one for the majority of the snaps on the right side, that will allow you to help Will Campbellmore. And that will allow you to do different things. I also think Josh McDaniels will likely, you know, move the pocket and use Drake May's mobility to help get away from the left side and try to get Drake made a rollout right often in this game and get him moving that pocket. Moses is also, Morgan Moses is also really good in the run game.

Starting point is 00:13:33 And we'll get into that a little bit later about what the Patriots are going to need to do to try to score points against this defense. But I would say as far as Will Campbell goes, look, he talked about it to the media on Wednesday and mentioned that, you know, he had three or four reps that he wants back. And, you know, they were, it was a really tough challenge against the charges and all that stuff. I think Will Campbell, it's absolutely worth questioning. And we don't know how he's going to respond to last weekend's game until we see him on Sunday. He has done, I think, for most of this season, a good job. I think he's been more than a more than adequate left tackle.

Starting point is 00:14:11 But I think this matchup is difficult for any left tackle, unless you're talking about one of the best two or three in the game. So they're going to need help and they're going to need Morgan Moses to hold, you know, that right side of the line to make sure that they can devote that. help to Will Campbell. No, I agree. And from the outside looking in, so I want to say I'm a framing that's from Houston looking in, you know, Boston going to Foxborough. You're absolutely right. Like what they do on the outside, not only it helps them out in their career, but, you know, the guys on the inside feast as well, right? So this is going to be one of those matchups where, and I think we can, you know, kind of pivot to the marquee matchups. This will be a matchup where how can Domingo Ryan's when the chess game against Chaucer?

Starting point is 00:14:54 McDaniels who seen it all in the NFL. He's seen every, like he's seen that coach team when they had them, them two edge rushes back in the day, right? So he's seen it all from a defensive standpoint and understands how to attack it from an offensive standpoint. And for Demico Ryan's, I think he's also seen it all going back to his days as a player,

Starting point is 00:15:13 San Fran, in Philly, San Fran, and now as a head coach, I really think that's going to be probably the key matchup to win this game, if you ask me, simply because for the Houston, Texas defense, if they have another performance like that, even with Drake May's ability to operate the pocket and get up field and use his legs, it's kind of hard to put all of that on the second year quarterback, who may likely win the MVP, but going up against that defense where they are good on every level, that's a tough task.

Starting point is 00:15:44 Yeah, and who could help him out. My marquee matchup number two, John, is Stefan Diggs versus Jalen Petrie. And Jalen Petrie moved from safety to nickel back. He's been much better in the nickel this season for Houston. And yeah, I mean, so when you look at this matchup, now, Stefan Diggs will move. He'll move all around the line of scrimmage for the Patriots. But you've seen teams start to double Stefan Diggs, especially on third down. The Chargers did a decent amount of that.

Starting point is 00:16:12 I just think this is a fascinating matchup. If you do get Stefan Diggs lined up against Jalen Petrie, can he take advantage of Jalen Petrie? And can he come up with some big plays because Jalen Petrie's been so good. If you take Stefan Diggs out, then that means like last week you're going to need somebody like Kisham Booty to show up and get you 65, 66 yards. You're going to need those tight ends to show up. So Stefan Diggs was a security blanket for Drake May all year long. And now you start to see teams responding and reacting to that and treating Stefan Diggs like a true number one.

Starting point is 00:16:45 So it'll be fascinating to see what the Houston Texans do against. Diggs, especially on third down. I know Houston does what they do on defense, right? So I don't know if they're going to change a whole heck of a lot. But that matchup, Stefan Diggs versus Jalen Petrie is an important one. What's your second marquee matchup, John? I got to kind of echo that. And I look at Stefan Biggs numbers this year, six or more targets in the game, 57, 101,

Starting point is 00:17:10 146, 105. You look at 138, 101. This has been one of those years for Stefan Diggs. on the field where you kind of maybe underappreciate what he's still doing in this year in his career. When he does get those targets, he's been a very productive player. And when he doesn't get those targets, it's not like he's not productive, but he also kind of leaves room for other players in their wide receiver room to get open. So I think what Diggs can do and what the defense can do against Diggs will also help dictate the game for both sides of the ball.

Starting point is 00:17:44 Because what I like about the matchup for Houston is they get after the court. They make it tough on whoever's back there, right? Journal Petrie, I think, will hold his own. He's held his own against everybody this year. Degx, truly is the guy. Camarie Lassett is that guy. Like, those are dogs out there. But there is room for this DB room to be challenged downfield

Starting point is 00:18:08 if a quarterback can consistently in the pocket have time to challenge them downfield. So if Stefan Diggs can be that player where the defense has to commit, maybe underneath a little bit more to him, you're not going to expect Stefan to go down field and run a lot of these, you know, non-routes or fly-rots and all like that, where he's been more productive. And that's dated back to his season last year with Houston, Texans, or everything he can do underneath.

Starting point is 00:18:32 If that is an impact, like if Stefan Diggs brings that to the game, then that may hurt Houston if they decide to step up a little bit. And they could lead through to Kasem Bouti, who's been a down-of-field player for the Patriots this year to make plays. And so I think a lot of how Houston can win this game is just simply their secondary following up on the performance that they had last week. Two different quarterbacks, two different receiver rooms. The guys in the winery can get open a lot more than the guys in Pittsburgh. So I'm curious to see how that battle will play out.

Starting point is 00:19:05 Yeah, and it's going to come down to Josh McDaniels too, who can help our Drake May, try to find ways to get digs going. Again, I think it's a tough matchup. My third and final marquee matchup quick here is K. Levant Chase on against Ariante Ursery. You know, Chase has had a good year. Yeah, there's no doubt that Caleb on Chase on is the best edge that the Patriots have. And that's been really a struggle bus for them. Harold Landry was great in the first month.

Starting point is 00:19:28 He got hurt. He hasn't been the same guy. Caleb on Chase on was great the first couple of months, then a little up and down, but he was really good against the Chargers last weekend. So you've got, you know, your top edge against the rookie left tackle on the road. And Caleb, if he can come out and give you a couple of plays,

Starting point is 00:19:46 A couple of plays. We saw C.J. Stroud last week look rattled. Let's put it politely against the Steelers. If Caleb-on could put some pressure on that blind side, maybe you force a mistake or two and it changes the game. What's your final marquee matchup, John? I mean, good question.

Starting point is 00:20:04 I got to go quarterback versus quarterback. And it's not a matchup because they won't see each other. Like, it's an office versus defense thing. But both quarterbacks have... subpart performances in their first playoff game. Now, for Drake May, his second half was much better than his first half. Yeah. But they both had two fumbles.

Starting point is 00:20:27 Both had an interception, right? They both struggled with turnovers. I personally think the team with the better quarterback will win this game. Now, and this may go into the keys to victory a little bit, I don't think C.J. Stroud has to be amazing for the, of the Texas to win his game. Right. I think Drake May has to be amazing for the Patriots to win his game,

Starting point is 00:20:52 considering the defense that he's going up against. So, you know, however the defense chooses or goes about containing those quarterbacks, I think will play a huge role into the quarterback performance. But I look at the quarterback battle on both sides, and I see a first week that was up and down for both. Because CJ's trial wasn't all bad. Seven third down conversions, on those third down conversion, he had 158 yards, right?

Starting point is 00:21:14 he had plays downfield, the turnovers is what hurt him, and that defense is still able to wield him to a win with two scores. Hard to believe Strav is going to follow up with that game that he had and have another bad game like that. Same for Drake May who's played in the MVP level all year. Which quarterback will lift their team of, I think, is the matchup that we ought to be looking out for. All right, John and I will have each team's path to the AFC championship game next

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Starting point is 00:23:53 All right, he's John Hickman from Lockdown Texans. I am Nick Cattels from Lockdown Patriots. John, give the people what they want. Your keys to victory. So for the Houston Texans, it's obviously following up on another defensive performance that they had Monday night. I mean, you can't ask for a better performance, historic. They hold Aaron Rogers to his first and probably last playoff game with no TD

Starting point is 00:24:18 and I say last because I don't see him coming back, six points from the Pittsburgh, because I think that's the lowest. The lowest of Houston, Texas allowed him to playoffs in their franchise history, two pick sixes, multiple fumbles, multiple sacks. You follow up with that performance, and it pains for me to say this.

Starting point is 00:24:35 But the chances of the Texas winning this game is very likely. The chances of the Patriots win in this game is very low. Another key to victory, C.J. Strave. Listen, the conversations right now, the fan-based social media. Who is C.J. Straught for real. He had the rookie of the year season since then tailed off a little bit. Is he the guy?

Starting point is 00:24:57 Is he going to be the next $60 million quarterback? And with the performance on Monday night, don't feel like it. For a lot of people, I think a key to victory is for C.J. Stroud to shut us all up. Nick Cayley shut us up. A lot of people look there, Mike McDaniels getting fired in Miami, and Texas fans were like, hey, fire Kaylee, bring us. McDaniels to Houston and it'll be perfect, right? And all last week I told the fans, first of all, y'all are crazy to want to go give

Starting point is 00:25:24 CJ Stroud another officer coordinator in three years. But Nick Kelly has had improvements and he's been good this year. My same call to action is for CJ Stroud just don't have the turnovers. That's it. I mean, you take those turnovers away. We're looking at a different conversation from their quarterback perspective from C.J. Straub. And again, he was excellent on third down, in my opinion, outside of the one interception.

Starting point is 00:25:46 So for CJ Stroud, just be better. Be the guy that you want to be. And are you going to be the turnover guy? Are you going to be the guy that's in question every time the Texas office take a field? Or are you going to be the guy that other teams have to really intrude the game plan for? And I think this is the first step of sodas and all of his haters, naysayers, and everybody who looked at the game and will now question if he's a franchise quarterback or not. Yeah, I look at the keys to victory here.

Starting point is 00:26:14 Number one, ball security. You mentioned it with C.J. Stroud, but the Texans regular season plus 17, turnover differential. Third best team in the NFL and takeaways. So you got to take care of the football. Drake May was careless, not once but twice in the pocket last week and fumbled. You got to make sure you take care of that. The pick, not that big of a deal, deflected pass. That happens. But you just can't have those two fumbles, especially, you know, the first one, when you get bumped from behind, you know somebody's there and you try to reset and try to do too much. You just, you can't do it. You can't do it. And you mentioned, you know, Houston against Pittsburgh on Monday night.

Starting point is 00:26:50 They had the scoop in the score. They had to pick six. One to two big defensive plays in this game. It could be game over. By either side, you turn the ball over, you get quick points. You have a short field. It can change everything. The second key to victory for me with the Patriots is up the physicality.

Starting point is 00:27:04 You had a very physical football game against the Chargers. Houston is fast. They're physical. They hit hard. Drake May said on Wednesday that, you know, the linebackers try to take your head off when they hit you. So you got to up the physicality against it. If you thought you were physical against the chargers, amp that up.

Starting point is 00:27:25 You've got to be even more physical against Houston on Sunday. And I wonder, you know, will the rest day help the Patriots with that? Obviously, the Pats have one more rest day than the Texans. They played on Sunday. Texans played on Monday night. You know, so can you take that and turn it into an advantage? Mental, physical, we'll see. my final key to victory here, John, is early down offense.

Starting point is 00:27:48 You know, Drake May has been excellent on third down this year. He has had to save this offense on so many occasions, third and medium, third and long. You can't do that against Houston. You cannot survive being third and medium, third and long. You just can't do it. So early down offense, you have to stay ahead. You have to stay on schedule. You've got to, you know, make sure that you're staying ahead of those chains and you're not

Starting point is 00:28:12 looking at third and seven, third, and eight, because I think that's just absolutely deadly against this defense. A little bit of run game success would help that, right? You get a little bit of run on the early downs, open up the play action, some creativity from Josh McDaniels, but the early down offense. All right, we don't have. I also want to build on that for the Houston, Texas, because this season, the New England Patriots run defense is number six in the league, right?

Starting point is 00:28:42 good. I can't remember what they allowed from the charges last week. But hey, man, where do marks for us for over 100 yards last year? This is first in his young career and hopefully to be a long career. The offensive line in terms of run blocking, probably their best performance all season. So for the Houston Texans would really help that offense out a lot. They saw a lot of third and shorts. And when you have an offensively challenge this team like they have and the possibility of not having Nico Collins, being able to replicate that performance, I think is just as important as that defensive performance as well.

Starting point is 00:29:18 Yeah, it's a really good point. And the Patriots run defense, it was excellent before the Milton Williams injury. Milton Williams got hurt. The Patriots run defense was not good. Robert Spillane got hurt. It got even worse. But now those two guys are back. And last week against the Chargers, it was pretty darn good aside from a couple of Justin Herbert scrambles. So, you know, I think with Milton Williams, with Robert Spillane, I have a little bit more confidence that Patriots run defense is going to be okay. He is John Hickman, Lockdown Texans. I am Nick Cattle's Lockdown Patriots. We're not going to give you the prediction. We'll give you the prediction on our Friday episodes.

Starting point is 00:29:52 That's going to wrap up this postseason crossover edition of Lockdown Patriots and Lockdown Texans. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every day. Or don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. If you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy. check out the Everyday Hair Club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord, server access, and more.

Starting point is 00:30:14 Subs can be gifted through lockdownpatriots.supercast.com or Lockdown Texans.com. Have a great day. John and I will be back, respectively, with our deep dive previews on the Friday episode. Talk to you then. Bye-bye.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - High-Stakes: Will C.J. Stroud or Drake Maye Dominate in AFC Showdown?

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