Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Historically Good: New England Patriots’ Drake Maye Dominates NFL Metrics

Starting point is 00:00:00 Drake May has been even better than some might want you to believe this season. Let's start there. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts Network, your team every day. What's happening? I'm your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the Pats for the past 16 years. Also the co-hosts, the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran.

Starting point is 00:00:36 Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Of course you know by now. If you don't, I'll tell you again, we are the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's show, find out what two things have happened this season that we haven't seen happen in years from a Patriot. Also, we'll tell you why Pat's fans might have an extra special summer's day. day to plan for in 2026. But first, Drake, Drake May, May. Pats are on a buy, but crossover Thursday continues across the lockdown NFL team channels and is always presented by prize picks. Download the prize picks app today. Use code

Starting point is 00:01:15 Lockdown NFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Drake May, we found out on Wednesday, was officially named the AFC offensive player of the week due to his work against the Giants on Monday night. It is the first time that Drake May has won the award, hopefully the first of many, many times that Drake May will win the AFC offensive player of the week. There's lots of football left this season. A month is left, four games left on the schedule,

Starting point is 00:01:51 big challenges ahead, Buffalo at Baltimore. But three quarters of the way through this season, I am here to tell you that Drake May has been good. How good? Historically good. Front office NFL posted this. Drake May is on pace to be the fourth quarterback to lead the NFL and quarterback win percentage, completion percentage,

Starting point is 00:02:15 passing yards, and passer rating in a season. He'd be the first to do it before turning 30. Otto Graham did this in 1953 at 32 years old. Kurt Warner did it in 2001 at 30. Tom Brady did it in 2007 at 30. Of course, Drake May, right now in 2025, he is 23 years old. That's the history of the league. But when we look at the Patriots quarterbacks in the seasons they've had, guess what?

Starting point is 00:02:47 Drake May's 2025 has been historically good. Kevin Cole posted this. EPA per play version of high. regular season in Pat's history. This is since 2000. So the EPA per play version of the best regular season at quarterback going back to 2000. Tom Brady in 2007 was plus 0.42. Tom Brady, 2016 was plus 0.34. Tom Brady in 2011 was plus 0.32. Tom Brady in 2012 was plus 0.30 and tied for the fifth best EPA per play mark in the regular season since 2000 is Drake May this season at plus 0.28, which actually ties where Brady finished in 2010.

Starting point is 00:03:41 So when you look at the entire NFL, Drake May, historically good. When you look at the EPA per play version of the highest regular season in Patriots history, Drake May is in the top five when you go back to the year 2000. He has been historically good. And here's the best news of all. Drake May should improve as an NFL quarterback. Just think of it on a common sense level. He's only 23 years old.

Starting point is 00:04:10 That's why the statistic I just gave you, the stats of the front office NFL post, win percentage, completion percentage, passing yards, passer rating, all of those. right? To lead the NFL in all of those categories, it's never happened before for a quarterback before they turn 30. That's why it's insane that at 23 years old, Drake May is in the conversation. He might not finish there by the end of the year, but the very fact that he is in the discussion is pretty insane. And then you think about not just his age, but his development within the

Starting point is 00:04:47 scheme. He's going to get more comfortable with Josh McDaniel's offense. We've talked about it before. I do not think Josh McDaniels is going anywhere anytime soon. All these big college football jobs have been already filled outside of Penn State, who is absolutely scrambling. So I don't think Josh McDaniels is going anywhere. You think Drake May is going to get worse in year two in his offense? I don't. When you look at the recent history, especially at the quarterback position, the true boom from those players ends up happening the second year that they are the starting quarterback. So if you look at it, you say about 34, 35 games in, Drake May is going to continue to get better and better and better.

Starting point is 00:05:37 He hits that mark. He should continue to get better and better and better. And he has proven to be a quick learner. He learns from his mistakes. He learns what defenses are doing to him and how to adapt, how to adjust. So he should actually improve from where he is right now, which has to be scary for the NFL. As a matter of fact, Mike Vrable this week, speaking to the media, he said, quote, about Drake May, he's realizing what he can be, unquote. He's realizing what he can be. He hasn't even fully realized what he can be. Drake May is having an epiphany during the 2025 season. And he's looking at what he's doing and he's looking at this offense.

Starting point is 00:06:23 And he's saying to himself, man, I could actually be really, really good. Like maybe borderline elite good from what I've been doing this year so far. Look, women lie, men lie. Numbers don't. May has been metrically dominant this year. Three quarters through the season. Evan Lazar posted this the other day on Twitter. EPA per play, Drake May is second in the league.

Starting point is 00:06:51 Total QBR, Drake May is fourth. Success rate, he's fourth. Completion percentage, over-expected. He is first in the NFL. Average air yards, he's fourth. Even more from Evan Lazar. Drake May leads the NFL in total expectations. points added at plus 101.1.1. And if you think he's making all these easy

Starting point is 00:07:22 throws, nothing could be further from the truth. The level of difficulty matters. When we talk about the types of numbers I'm talking about, the level of throws that he is making matters. Next-gen stats after Monday night football posted, Drake May completed six of eight passes beyond 10 air yards for 117 yards and a touchdown in week 13. Drake May has completed a league leading 88 such passes this season for 1865 yards, which is over 200 more yards than any other quarterback. Taylor Kyle's of CL&S mentioned this week that Drake May's passer rating on deep passes is 135.4, which happens to be, you guessed it, number one in the entire NFL.

Starting point is 00:08:17 The eye test tells you, the metrics tell you, history tells you, whether you're looking at the entire NFL or justice franchise, Drake May through three quarters of this season has been historically good. Oh, Nick, the schedule. I see this now on Twitter. This is becoming the thing for both the Patriot success and Drake. May's success, the schedule. Well, I've got some counters to that. Drake May has played most of this season without a run game whatsoever. You think that impacts the quarterback negatively, or at least should?

Starting point is 00:08:51 This is Drake May's fourth offense in four years. You think that would negatively impact him? His number one wide receiver is 32 years old coming off ACL surgery. You think other quarterbacks that we talk about regarding. MVP might have better weapons, and that's no disrespect to Stefan Diggs. It's actually respect to those other guys that we talk about. You think Matthew Stafford enjoys Puka Nakua and Devante Adams? I do. How about the fact that you have a rookie left tackle and rookie left guard? But here is perception versus reality when we talk about the schedule conversation,

Starting point is 00:09:32 especially when you look at quarterback. Ben Baldwin posted this. on Wednesday, people dramatically overestimate variation in defensive quality faced for entire season. The difference between the hardest schedule, which happens to be Cam Ward, versus the easiest, which happens to be Jalen Hertz, works out to be about 0.03 EPA per play, which is minuscule. The difference Ben Baldwin posts between Drake, May and Matthew Stafford's opposing schedules is 0.0008 EPA per play, even more ridiculously minuscule. And as Ben Baldwin posts, another way to think about this, the gap in EPA per play between May and Stafford is 0.075. About 1%. About 1% of the gap can be explained by the quality

Starting point is 00:10:36 of defenses faced. The schedule, what Ben Baldwin is telling us, the schedule does not mean nearly as much as you might think when you look at individual quarterback play. There's a 1% difference between Drake May and Matthew Stafford when you look at schedule. And I would say the run game, the offensive line, the weapons, the new offense, the fact that he's 23 years old and Matthew Stafford is 37. He has seen everything you need to.

Starting point is 00:11:06 see as an NFL quarterback, I would tell you that Drake May is the MVP right now, as I've said before, and I would tell you that unequivocally, Drake May is having historically a good season to this point. There's really no argument against it. All right, two all-time great members of the franchise inch closer to football immortality, but could also be inching towards an incredibly awkward moment. That's next. This is Lockdown Patriots. Part of of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This episode is brought to by prize picks. The holiday season is one of the best times for sports,

Starting point is 00:11:48 bowl games, big basketball matchups, playoff pushes. It's all happening at once. And while we're all making choices every day, one of the most fun places to make the right call is prize picks. Prize picks is the easiest way to get in on daily fantasy. Just pick more or less on at least two player projections, lock in your lineup, and you're in the game. simple, fast, and available in 45 states, including California, Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

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Starting point is 00:12:35 Lockdown NFL to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup prize picks. It's good to be right. Thank you for making lockdown Patriots your first listen of the day. And thank you for making lockdown the number one, number one, sports podcast, network. We appreciate you, every single one of you, your team every day. And don't forget if you happen to be watching on YouTube to like, click that thumbs up, throw a comment in. Do you agree with me that Drake May has been historically good through the first three quarters of this season? I just gave you all the numbers laid out my case.

Starting point is 00:13:14 Don't forget to comment. And don't forget to subscribe as we march towards 8,000 subs. We want to make this the best lockdown with all due respect to the other lockdown programs. We want this to be the best lockdown podcast day after day. And we will get there with your help. Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick, officially two of the five. Hall of Fame finalists. It was announced on Wednesday.

Starting point is 00:13:40 Now, both guys can get in. There's a maximum of three finalists that can get in year over year, over year. And how does Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick get in? They would both have to receive 80% of the vote. There are 50 voters. I'm not a mathematician. I don't try to play one on this podcast, but I will tell you that 80% of 50% of 50 voters is 40 voters. Proud of myself. Bill Belichick, no doubt is a first ballot

Starting point is 00:14:13 Hall of favor. I mean, give me a break. We can feel the way we want to feel about Bill Belichick and his final years in New England. We can feel the way we want to feel about him regarding what he has done off the field and, you know, all the gossip stuff and what happened at North Carolina this year. I couldn't care less about any of that. You know, You have to separate that from the career overall of what Bill Belichick accomplished in the NFL. He is the greatest coach of all time in the NFL. He has not one ring, but eight rings, six as a head coach, two as a defensive coordinator. Eight rings.

Starting point is 00:14:56 I mean, we're talking about somebody who has a game plan, a defensive game plan from the Super Bowl against the Buffalo Bills. when he shut down Jim Kelly in that offense, his game plan is in the Hall of Fame. That's how respected of a defensive mind Bill Belichick was when he was a defensive coordinator. He is second all-time in most wins as a head coach. He coached not just one but two dynasties. You could argue two separate errors.

Starting point is 00:15:29 The game had changed from when Bill Belichick first took over to when he once again just happened to win three Super Bowls. Two dynasties. Who does that? Oh, and by the way, not only was he a head coach during the two epic runs in the 20-plus years. And you can talk about Tom Brady all you want. I love Tom Brady. I worship at the altar of Tom Brady.

Starting point is 00:15:56 However, Bill Belichick is not the first coach to have a great quarterback, help him win a lot of As a matter of fact, what's funny is you can look at a lot of great coaches and there's a common denominator. Guess what? They happen to have a pretty good quarterback. Do you think Don Shula loved having Dan Marino as QB1 in Miami? I would have to say so. You think Andy Reed has enjoyed having Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. So that's a non-starter. When you compare Bill Belichick to his colleagues as an NFL head coach, he is a first ballot guy. There's just no doubt he should get 100% of the vote. Every single solitary, one of those 50 voters should be putting a checkmark next to Bill Belichick's name.

Starting point is 00:16:44 And by the way, he also handled personnel for 20 plus years. So he was not only coaching the team, he was also picking the groceries, as his mentor once said. First ballot hall of famer. Robert Kraft, meanwhile, 100% a Hall of Fame owner. 100%. There should be no question about this. Robert Kraft has six rings as an owner, six championships. How many owners can say that?

Starting point is 00:17:17 But when you get away from the success on the football field, you also have to because Robert Kraft will be a contributor, or whatever they call it, you know, he played a huge role, a vital role. in TV negotiations, but especially the CBA negotiations. Robert Kraft played a huge role in that. We'll never forget, right? Was it Jeff Saturday when the Players Association agreed with the owners

Starting point is 00:17:44 and they got the CBA deal done? It felt like a lockout was going to happen. And there was Robert Kraft and Jeff Saturday. Having a Yahya Brotherhood moment. Instrumental in keeping the league on the track. and he also kept an NFL team in New England. He really saved the organization and helped turn it into the organization

Starting point is 00:18:11 from 2000 to 2020. So yes, Robert Kraft should be a Hall of Famer. But what is also interesting is what happens if both make it in the same year. Again, a maximum of. three can make it, which means both Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick could be elected to the Hall of Fame in the same year. And you think about the relationship right now. You think about

Starting point is 00:18:42 how each guy would deal with it. There has been a contest between the two ever since they quote unquote parted ways mutually, which we all know was actually Robert Kraft firing Bill Belichick, which Robert Kraft reminded people afterwards, but the back and forth, the real life tension between these two men. We were talking about two Goliaths and what they did for a long time, Robert Kraft with ownership and Bill Belichick as a head coach. You know, both guys have huge egos. I said a long time ago during this back and forth between two people that meant so much to

Starting point is 00:19:19 every single Patriots fan, I really wish they would just stop bickering, stop with the measuring, contest. Maybe they would do that if they both got into the Hall of Fame. Maybe. But it's tough because we know that Bill Belichick, he's an all-time holder of grudges, loves it. Robert Kraft has done a decent job of that as well. So if they both get elected, how do they deal with that? How do they deal with that? Is there going to be some tension? Will they handle it professionally? Robert Kraft during his speech, will he mention Bill Belichick? Would Bill Belichick mention Robert Kraft? Will they do it just to do it so they don't become a story? I feel like I could see Robert Kraft mentioning Bill Belichick in his speech. I would find it less likely, even though it's hard to believe Bill Belichick would not, that he would just completely omit Robert Kraft.

Starting point is 00:20:21 But I wouldn't put it past them. I wouldn't be stunned if Bill Belichick did not mention Robert Kraft by name. So all of this is like an interesting backdrop. Don Van Nata of ESPN wrote about Robert Kraft and Bill Belichick, possibly going into the Hall of Fame the same year. Here is what one veteran Hall of Fame voter told ESPN on Tuesday night. Quote, you could have a delicious moment where Kraft and Belichick get busts together. It should just put them side by side. I pay a lot of money to watch that.

Starting point is 00:21:02 Of course, only one of the two men can get in, and I'd pay a heck of a lot of money to see that, unquote. Yeah, if one gets in and the other doesn't, oh boy. Ooh, does the relationship get even more chilly? Look, either way, it is going to be a great moment for Patriots fans, whether one or both get in. It is a momentous occasion. And hopefully Patriots fans, even though, you know, some of them, a lot of them, I don't know what the number is. I haven't done a survey. I don't run around and do the census of Patriots fans.

Starting point is 00:21:42 But even though some, many, whatever that number is, are likely upset. or frustrated with Belichick's final years in New England, I have to imagine that the vast, vast, vast majority of this fan base will be excited the day he has his Hall of Fame speech and officially goes in and the same should be said for Robert Kraft because some fans have given Robert Kraft a bunch of crap over the past couple of years, especially. Now, as far as bragging rights or scoreboard,

Starting point is 00:22:12 Belichick will have it forever. Because if Bill Belichick doesn't go in this year, going in next year. And Robert Kraft already has not been elected a number of times. So that scoreboard doesn't really matter to me. But get ready. August of 2026, both guys could get in. I'd be shocked if at least one of them doesn't get in. A vital Patriot might have been injured on Monday night. Find out who we're talking about and more as we continue with today's episode of Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Of course, I'm talking about your team every day.

Starting point is 00:22:54 So you go back to the Giants game on Monday night. I watched the game twice. As all of you know, we broke down the all 22 takeaways on yesterday's podcast. I still haven't gotten through all of my thoughts. I still have some leftover thoughts. Let's start with Robert Spillane. Interestingly enough, when the snap counts came out, when the snap rate came out from Monday night's game from Mike Reese,

Starting point is 00:23:17 I saw that Robert Spillane played 68% of the snaps, which is well below, well below what he usually gives this team. That's something to keep in mind, something to keep an eye on. Is there some kind of injury situation that led to Robert Spillane only playing about 68% of the snaps? Was this a management situation heading into the byweek? Tough to believe because, again, Robert Spillane throughout this entire year, he's been out there a bunch. Was it the scoreboard? You know, maybe Mike Vrable felt we're up big. We're up, you know, multiple scores here.

Starting point is 00:24:00 We can play some of these guys because they've played now 13 straight games. We can play some of them less. Tough to believe because a lot of the other guys stayed out there, right? So, and the Patriots have been up multiple scores in other games and have continued to play games. guys. So I don't know how much I would buy into that. So we have to keep an eye on it because the buy week could be perfect timing for Robert Spillane and this Patriots defense. They need Spillane at linebacker, especially with the run defense over the past month, declining, especially because Milton Williams is still not going to be back for a few weeks,

Starting point is 00:24:40 especially because you did not have Kyrie's Tonga against the Giants on Monday night. So let's all keep an eye on Robert Spillane, the team is off this week, a much deserved break. When they get back, will Robert Spillane be out there practicing? Let's pay attention to it. This turnaround for the Patriots, I just, I saw something coming out of the Giants game that made my head spin that I finally get to talk about here. This turnaround, I'm not sure people are truly appreciating, at least some people are truly appreciating what we have witnessed in 2025 with the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:25:22 This turnaround is straight up bananas. Michael Hurley from NBC Sports Boston, he posted this week, the Patriots, you go back to week 11 of 2022, go back to week 11 of 2022, start there and go all the way to the end of 2024's season. You want to know what the Patriots record was from week 11 of 2022 through the end of the Gerard Mayo era? The record was 11 and 31. Of course, the Patriots already have 11 wins after 13 weeks of the season.

Starting point is 00:26:05 That's crazy. That's bananas. It took 42 games from week 11 of 2022. through, you know, the end of 2024 to get to 11 wins. It took Mike Vrable's Patriots 13 games to get to 11 wins. That's how crazy this turnaround has been. Here's some fun with numbers. So Stefan Diggs on Monday night ended up surpassing 700 receiving yards.

Starting point is 00:26:40 He now has 705 receiving yards. Mark Daniels of Mass Live pointed out. that the last Patriot that had a 700-yard season at wide receiver was, guess who? You know who, Jacoby Myers in 2022. So the last time they had a receiver surpassed 700 yards was in the 2022 season. Dix has been awesome. He's been awesome on the field considering the circumstances, the injury, the surgery, the age. The fact that he's been out there, he's had a ton of catches.

Starting point is 00:27:15 It's been a little up and down. It hasn't been like, you know, consistently six catches a week. But he is still just his production, the level of his production this year, given what he had to go through and just kind of jumping into the deep end. Yeah, he knew this offense from his time with Brian Dayball. He had a pretty good idea. And he worked, he knew Todd Downing from their days in Minnesota. But man, oh man, talk about exceeding expectations.

Starting point is 00:27:41 It's really cool that Stefan Diggs is. already past 700 receiving yards with four games to play, speaks volumes of him, and off the field he's been excellent. Taylor Kyle's of CLNS, he noted, did you know that we've witnessed rookie history for the Patriots this year? Andy Boragallis now has 105 points on the season after Monday night. It's a rookie record. He breaks the record of Stephen Gaskowski from 2006, Gaskowski had 103 points. And of course, as I said with Stefan Diggs and earlier in the show, still four games left. So Andy Boregalis, the rookie kicker, he is going to smash the prior record for points

Starting point is 00:28:33 from a rookie, the Patriots. He's at 105. Gaskowski was at 103. He's going to shatter that. Now, hopefully he doesn't shatter it by too much. because hopefully when the Patriots get in the red zone after this bi-week, they actually score more touchdowns. And I will admit this, never afraid to admit when I'm wrong. The whole Parker Romo versus Andy Boragallis stuff, I was frustrated. You know, the Patriots preached competition as camp was going on. And then, you know, Parker Romo from what we saw, he out kicked Andy Boragallis. He was the more accurate kicker through camp.

Starting point is 00:29:13 and the Patriots decided to stick with Andy Boragallis. And of course, that left you wondering if the only reason they kept Andy Boragallis is because they used a draft pick on a kicker. And so I was a little frustrated at that decision. And I was dead wrong. Parker Romo, we know what's going on with him. Meanwhile, Andy Borogales has been terrific. Yes, he missed a 45-yard kick on Monday night,

Starting point is 00:29:39 but he has been absolutely freaking nails. since the early struggles the first week or two. So Jeremy Springer, Mike Rable, you made the right call. All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel.

Starting point is 00:30:02 Hit that like button. Give us a thumbs up. And don't forget to subscribe as well. The comments, the likes, all those help. But the algorithm subscribing helps us as well. And for your second listen, get a double dose of the Lockdown NFL podcast with Tyler the Madman Rowland and Tony Wiggins. Find Lockdown NFL on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. Have a great day and we will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Historically Good: New England Patriots’ Drake Maye Dominates NFL Metrics

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