Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Jekyll & Hyde: New England Patriots Ready to Test Sam Darnold

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's time to start breaking down this Super Bowl matchup. Let's start with this idea. Sam Donald could absolutely turn into a pumpkin on Sunday. This is Lockdown Patriots. You are Locked on Patriots. Your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What's happening?

Starting point is 00:00:28 I am Nick Cattles, your host, born and raised in New England. I've been covering the past for the past 16 years, also co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Niccattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Locked on podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's show, in the third segment, the challenges of facing the Seattle defense on third down and how the Pats can try to make it easier on themselves. In the second segment, I have significant concerns about the Pats run game against this Seahawks defense. But first, Sam Darnold. aka Dr. Jekyll, Mr. Hyde.

Starting point is 00:01:08 Today's episode is brought to by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code lockdown for $20 off your first purchase. Now, before we get into Sam Donald in this game on Sunday, one very special no. Terrell Williams, defensive coordinator for the Patriots, of course, he has not been calling the defensive plays since after week one against the Raiders. Zach Corr has been doing that. but we got great news over the weekend regarding Terrell Williams. As Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald reports that Terrell Williams is cancer-free, had a very aggressive form of prostate cancer, but he is cancer-free.

Starting point is 00:01:50 He will be with the team out in California this week. It's great, great news. Now let's get to something much less serious and important, frankly, and that is Sam Donald. You know, I have been talking about Sam Donald for the last few years, and I've had my doubts. I had my doubts going into the NFC championship game. How many times have we seen Sam Donald turn the football over in a big game look like an absolute mess? Then Sam Donald goes into the NFC championship game, and he plays terrific. There's no other way to look at it.

Starting point is 00:02:24 Sam Donald against the Rams in the NFC championship game, 5-11, 102 yards, and a career high, three touchdowns. under pressure. Bill Barnwell of ESPN noted that Donald's 82.9 QBR was the second best this post season. Also from Bill Barnwell, Donald threw for a season high, 248 yards and two touchdowns without play action. Seattle has leaned on play action an awful lot this year in their past game. Shield Capadia from the Ringer, he noted that Sam Donald's game was 91sts percentile based on EPA per pass play. So Donald was really, really good against the Rams in the NFC championship game. But I am not completely sold that that is the same Sam Donald that we're going to see against the Patriots on Sunday. Sam Donald's been defined by ups and downs throughout his entire

Starting point is 00:03:20 career. That's what he's been known for. You even go back to Minnesota last year. Terrific, terrific for most of that regular season. Towards the tail end of the year, he started to fall off a cliff. He wasn't the same guy in the playoffs. And this season, Donald has been two different guys throughout this regular season that we just saw. And yes, he's been better in the playoffs, especially against the Rams. But he's been up and down. And I've got some numbers for you.

Starting point is 00:03:48 ESPN, okay? Weeks one through nine of this season, Donald's QBR was 77.9. That was the second best in the entire NFL. Donald was the second best quarterback in football, the first nine weeks of the season, according to QBR. And then, all of a sudden, from weeks 10 to 18, Donald became one of the worst quarterbacks in football, according to QBR. He went from 77.9, second best weeks one through nine, to 37.4 weeks 10 through 18,

Starting point is 00:04:22 which ranked him 26th in that statistic. and you look at his numbers, he was a completely different guy. Weeks 1 through 9, Donald completed 70.4% of his passes. Weeks 10 through 18, that dropped to 65.5%. Yards per attempt went from 9.6 the first 9 weeks to 7.5 from weeks 10 through 18. Touchdowns. Donald threw 16 touchdowns, weeks 1 through 9. He threw only 9 weeks 10 through 18.

Starting point is 00:04:54 Interceptions. Five interceptions, weeks one through nine, weeks 10 through 18. He had nine interceptions. Sacks, he had nine sacks, weeks one through nine, weeks 10 through 18, double that number to 18. He was a completely different quarterback, the second half of the season, than he was the first half of the season. The NFL figured out what Darnold was doing and what the Seahawks wanted to do offensively with their quarterback. and he wasn't the same guy. And yes, he was really good against pressure against the Rams. But that has not been his calling car. Donald has struggled when he's been pressured.

Starting point is 00:05:34 We've seen that. He's had major issues versus pressure. Very good in the NFC championship game, otherwise shaky. The first two games this season against the Rams, Donald, no touchdowns, three picks under pressure. When you look at Donald against pressure this season. One of the worst quarterbacks in football.

Starting point is 00:05:56 He was 21st in passer rating. He was 27th in EPA. He was 28th in EPA per dropback. And he was tied for the third most interceptions in football against pressure with six picks. Six of his 14 interceptions were against pressure almost half. That's the Donald we've seen. A very good Donald through the first half.

Starting point is 00:06:22 a mediocre to bad Donald in the second half. A really good Donald in the NFC championship game. Could we see a mediocre bad Donald in the Super Bowl? I absolutely believe that it is possible that Donald turns into a pumpkin against the Patriots. And if the Patriots find a way to heat him up, if they put pressure on Donald, Donald will give you the football. Turnovers have been a major problem for him throughout his career, and they've been a problem for him this season. Only Minnesota committed more than Seattle's 28 turnovers during the regular season.

Starting point is 00:07:02 That's according to ESPN. Darnold, through the third most interceptions in football this year with the aforementioned 14, he had the second most fumbles lost in the NFL with six. Those 20 turnovers, the 14 picks and the six. fumbles. Those 20 turnovers led all players in the NFL. Now he's been better the last three. ESPN notes that Donald has not had a turnover his last three games. That's good news for Seattle. It's good news for Darnold, but it begs the question is he do. Watching Drake May through the first two postseason games with the six fumbles and how many were

Starting point is 00:07:44 lost, three, four, I lost count. You wondered, well, was he due to take care of the football against the Broncos. And he did. 0.0 turnovers against the Broncos in blizzard-like conditions in the second half. So now you look at a Donald who had 20 turnovers this year, has not turned the ball over once over his last three games. Does that mean he's due? Is he due to choke it up a little bit? Is he do to turn the ball over a couple times on Sunday? It's not a guarantee, but would you be surprised? I would not be surprised. And the turnovers from Donald look even worse when you check out the context.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Sam Donald is not asked to throw the football a ton. So he has less on his plate than other quarterbacks as far as volume goes. He's like around 15th and pass attempts on the season. So he's pretty much right smack dab in the middle of the pack as far as how many times he's going to throw the football. But yet, even though he's not throwing the football at a ridiculously high rate, he has 14 picks and six fumbles on the season. which means his turnover rate is much higher than those other quarterbacks that are asked to throw the football more. So inevitably, the question is, and I think the most important question for Seattle,

Starting point is 00:09:00 which Sam Donald shows up in the Super Bowl? Is it weeks 1 through 9 an NFC championship game Sam Donald? Or is it weeks 10 through 18 in some prior big game bad Sam Donald performances that we've seen before? Because if it's the latter, the Seahawks could be in trouble. the Patriots could win this football game if they put heat on Donald. He turns it over a couple times and he just does not look like that guy he looked like against the Rams in the NFC championship game. And the nature of his career, the up and down nature makes you feel like it's at least

Starting point is 00:09:34 a possibility, if not probability, that Donald goes back to being that pumpkin in a big game. Remandre Stevenson and the Pat's run game should expect to have a very difficult day at the office this Sunday. We'll talk about that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The big game is almost here, and there's no better way to cash in during America's biggest sporting event than prize picks, where it always feels good to be right. And this week, prize picks has a special max discount for the big game, live in the app right now. Drake May just needs one passing yard for the max discount to win. Add another player to your lineup, and if your picks hit, you can cash in. Prize picks is super simple to use. It takes

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Starting point is 00:12:34 Give us that like. Always appreciate it. Helps us with that algorithm. Don't forget to like. Don't forget to throw a comment in your thoughts on Sam Donald, Jekyll and Hyde. And don't forget to subscribe. We're trying to hit 9,000 subscribers by the Super Bowl.

Starting point is 00:12:48 Can we get it done? it's going to be a tall task, but let's start pushing. Don't forget to like, comment, and sub-appreciate every single one of you. Ramandre Stevenson has arguably been the best offensive player on the Patriots over the last five to six weeks, including Drake May. Because of May's postseason, you could look at Stevenson and say Ramandre Stevenson has been the best offensive player on this team. He's been one of the most consistent offensive players on this team. And Ben Solac of ESPN has a couple of numbers.

Starting point is 00:13:19 No running back has a higher rate of 20 plus yard gains per touch than Ramandre Stevenson. And since his injury return, he's averaging 5.3 yards per carry, even though he's only expected to have 3.3 yards per carry. Ramandre Stevenson, since coming back from that toe injury, is giving you two yards per carry more than he should be. and his missed tackle rate is a pretty crazy 24.5%. He's forcing missed tackles. He's got the contact balance. He's got the vision. He's got the strong finish.

Starting point is 00:13:58 Stevenson has been terrific. And the run game, of course, is so critical to the Patriots operation and success. You want to take heat off Drake May. You don't want Drake May, who's dealing with his own issues right now, the shoulder, the rocky performances, the last couple of weeks. You don't want May walking into this game feeling like he's going to be the one-man band, that he's going to be the one-man show, and he has to throw for 450 yards and carry this offense to a Super Bowl champion. You don't want that.

Starting point is 00:14:30 You don't want that. I've said it from the very beginning. It might be boring. It might be cliche, but you don't want one-dimensional offense. You need that run game to take the heat off your quarterback. You need that run game so you can have third and manageable. And third down, particularly in this game is going to be critical. We'll talk about that next segment.

Starting point is 00:14:50 But you need third and manageable if you're Josh McDaniels. Let's not forget that. Stevenson also adds explosives to this offense. And so does Trayvion Henderson. If Henderson is going to get on the field, we talked about that late last week here on Lockdown Patriots. But Stevenson's ability to create some of those explosives with his legs exponentially helps this offense.

Starting point is 00:15:13 And if you want to play time of possession, like we've seen the Patriots play every once in a while, we certainly saw it in the second half against the Broncos in the AFC championship game, you'll have to run the football. If you can't run the football, you're not going to be able to do those things, right? You're going to be one dimensional. You're probably going to be looking at third and medium, if not third and long for most of the game. The explosives on offense are going to be more difficult to come by against this secondary of the Seahawks. and you're not going to win time of possession.

Starting point is 00:15:45 And the run game for the Patriots on Sunday could be a significant issue because Seattle is straight up great against the run. Their front seven, their defensive backs, pretty much everybody tackles well. And you look at the Seahawks run defense. They are third in run stop win rate. They are third in yards per game, third yards after contact per attempt. They are first in yards per carry. they are first in EPA per rush.

Starting point is 00:16:13 They are first in rushing yards over expected. They are eighth in stuff rate. And all of those stats are impressive, right? Every single one of those stats or analytics that I just gave you were impressive. What makes it even more impressive is that the Seahawks are second to last and stacked box rate, which means they're doing all of this against the run. First in yards per carry, EPA per rush, rushing yards over expected. third in run stop win rate.

Starting point is 00:16:43 They're doing all of this without stacking the box. They are not putting extra defenders in the box to stop the run. They're just stopping the run. As simple as that. That's what they're doing. And so it's pretty amazing what they've been able to accomplish here, even though they're stacking it 31st and stacked box rate, 13.2%.

Starting point is 00:17:06 Even more on Seattle's run defense. ESPN says they've gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. Even though they've played run CMC twice and Kyron Williams twice and Bajon Robinson this year and Jonathan Taylor, they're not giving up 100-yard rushing games. They're just not doing it. Their run defense has a 34% success rate, which is the lowest. It is the lowest rate in the NFL, a negative 0.15 EPA per play against the run, which is the lowest in the NFL.

Starting point is 00:17:42 I mean, this Seattle run defense is terrific. And the question is, you know, at the top of my mind, can Josh McDaniels get anything from the running backs? Can he get anything from this run game on Sunday? And you could just look at what they do up front and how good they are up front. You can look at the second level, third level. Seattle also, you know, if you look at it and say,

Starting point is 00:18:04 well, we're not going to be able to run the football often. Seattle is also very good. Seattle's very good when you talk about ways to try to, you know, extensions of the run game, so to speak. The quick passing game, get rid of it quick, gain four, five, six quick yards. Seattle's very good against quick pass game. They are very good against perimeter touches. Their defensive backs are excellent tackling. Their linebackers are really good tackling.

Starting point is 00:18:30 Their defensive line will stuff the run. So when you say, oh, we can't run the ball, what can we do? Can we throw some perimeter screens? Can we, you know, can we try to extend the run game somehow, some way by, by, you know, throwing screens and stuff? Seattle's tough, man. They don't give up those extra yards. They are very, very difficult to deal with, incredibly difficult to deal with. And if you can't run the ball and you're one dimensional, that's putting everything on Drake May.

Starting point is 00:18:57 And that is a lot to ask of Drake May, a lot to ask. So can they get the run game going? The numbers would tell you they will have a very difficult time doing so. but can Josh McDaniels find a way? All right, the Pats would be very smart to take a page out of Sean McVeigh's book this Sunday. We'll tell you how they can do that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. New Year, new systems.

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Starting point is 00:21:37 Let's look at this objectively. You got two quarterbacks coming up on Sunday that are surrounded by questions. We talked about it in the first segment, Sam Donald's up and down nature. Meanwhile, Drake May has not been the same guy that he was in the regular season. He wasn't the same guy against Houston and Denver that he was even against the Chargers. So you've got some questions, especially with Drake May and the shoulder. I don't think it's a significant issue, but you've got questions. What can help both of these quarterbacks out on Sunday?

Starting point is 00:22:05 what would make their life easier? What would make their life easier is early down success. The operation staying ahead, right? Staying ahead of the chains, making sure that you're sustaining drives because your early down success is being productive. So I want to look at third down. This matchup is interesting on third down coming up on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:22:28 Let's start with the Patriots offense against the Seattle's defense. Now, this is a strength versus strength matchup. The Patriots third down offense has been really good. The Seattle third down defense has been the best in football. Patriots, sixth on third down this year, converting 42.9% of the time. Again, Seattle is number one defensively on third down. They only allow teams to convert 32.1% of the time, less than a third of those third downs,

Starting point is 00:23:01 you're getting a first down against this Seahawks defense. Now, when we look at it on a more granular level, third and long, this is very interesting. The Patriots actually had the third best offense in football on third and long. They convert 33.3% of the time, thanks to a lot of Drake May scrambles and a lot of Drake may great throws on third and long this year. How many times have we seen the quarterback save this offense on third down? Way too many to count. So the Patriots on third and long, they've been very good in that scenario.

Starting point is 00:23:37 Seattle's defense, they go from first overall on third down to 11th overall on third and long. So if there is a particular situation that causes some issues on third down for this Seahawks defense, it's actually third and long. And that begs the question of whether or not the Patriots can be effective enough on first and second down, which is why we just discussed the run game last segment. Because if you're not running the football effectively, you're going to have trouble on first and second down, which is going to lead you into some very difficult third down situation. So it is a tough, tough challenge for the Pat's offense.

Starting point is 00:24:16 Now let's flip it. Let's look at the Patriots defense on third down against the Seahawks offense on third down. Now, the Patriots, they have been, you know, one of the better defenses on third down throughout this season. They started off very hot. They have kind of, you know, tapered off and they're not as effective as they are, you know, or as they were earlier in the season.

Starting point is 00:24:40 So Seattle's offense, here's the good news. They haven't been very good on third down. They've been okay. So who's going to win that battle? When you look at it, you know, the Seahawks on third down offensively this year, they convert less than 40% of the time, 16th in the league. So smack dab in the middle of the pack. The Patriots defense started off hot, but now they are 12 overall on third down.

Starting point is 00:25:04 Now they are a much better defense on third down when Milton Williams and Robert Spillane are healthy and playing. So let's not forget about that. The Seahawks, here's what's fascinating. The Seahawks, third and long offense is the second worst in football. When the Seahawks are in third and long, they have a terrible time. of converting those downs. Now, everybody has a tough time converting third and long. But again, relatively speaking,

Starting point is 00:25:35 the Patriots have been very good on third and long. The Seahawks have been the second worst team on third and long. And the Patriots defense, by the way, is the best in football when offenses are faced with a third in long. So the Patriots, if they can force, if they can force Seattle into third and long situations with Sam Donald, that's the recipe. slow them down on the early downs, force them into third and long when they are awful,

Starting point is 00:26:02 and your defense is excellent, and maybe you can even cause some turnovers from Sam Darnel. You know, if you force Darnold into third and long, third and medium, you're heating him up a little bit. That's when he can run into some mistakes. Now, the Patriots, as far as their offense, do they have answers on third down against Seattle's defense? They could do a couple of things. They could do a couple of things that might get them a first down or two.

Starting point is 00:26:30 Ramandre Stevenson in the passing game. The Seahawks play a lot of two deep zone. They play two deep zone according to ESPN on 33.1% of opponent dropback. So a third of the time when the quarterback is dropping back, the Seahawks will have those two deep safeties. What Seattle wants to do is force you to kill them, death by paper cut. They want 13, 14, 15 play drives. And that means you might have some opportunities to find Ramandre Stevenson

Starting point is 00:27:00 in the passing game on third down to extend those drives, to move those chains. So keep an eye out for that. Another possible answer on third down for the Patriots is Drake May's legs and his ability to scramble. Taylor Kyle's of CLNS, he posted that the Seahawks have given up some big plays versus scrambles. They've actually tied for the fifth most explosive runs allowed versus scrambles this season. And when you look at what Drake May has done running the football in the

Starting point is 00:27:27 playoffs, his rushing grade is the second highest, according to pro football focus. He has the fifth most rushing yards. He is tied for the sixth most missed tackles forced at five. And when we talk about conversions, Drake May has the second most rushing conversions in the postseason, according to pro football focus with 11. And he's also tied for the second most 10 plus yard runs. So, A couple of answers there. Maybe Ramadre Stevenson on third down as a receiver. Maybe Drake May being able to run with the football. And one more thing,

Starting point is 00:28:01 Mike Sando did a great job of pointing this out in the athletic. The Patriots can treat first and second down like it's third down. That's what Sean McVeigh did the third time the Rams faced the Seahawks. Now, how did he do that? Well, according to Mike Sando, McVe treated second down more like third down with personnel. instead of 12 personnel, or he actually went with 12 personnel more, then he went with 13 personnel, the three tight end sets we had been talking about earlier in the year. McVeigh also shifted towards more, you know, three receivers on one side,

Starting point is 00:28:33 one receiver on the other side instead of going the two by two, two on each side on second down. So Sean McVeigh treated first and second down like it was third down. And when you look at the numbers, Matthew Stafford was zero for six on third down, against the Seahawks in the NFC championship game, but on second down, he was 10 for 13, 165 passing yards, and a touchdown. So can you get Ramandre Stevenson,

Starting point is 00:29:00 maybe a sneak Trayvion Henderson out there on third down for a catch or two? Can Drake May convert with his legs like we've seen him do over and over and over again, especially against Denver? And can you treat some of these first and second downs like their third downs like Sean McVeigh did? those are some ways that the Patriots might be able to win on third down while also defensively trying to get Seattle into as many third and longs as humanly possible.

Starting point is 00:29:28 All right, that wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots. Thank you for making us your first listen and for being an everydayer. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C. Radio. And don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel, hit that like button and subscribe. And if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy. Check out the Everydayer Club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive, Discord. server access and more.

Starting point is 00:29:48 Don't forget until the Super Bowl, subscribers can use code Super Bowl to get one month free of the everydayer club. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdownpatriots.supercast.com. Have a great day and we will see you tomorrow.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Jekyll & Hyde: New England Patriots Ready to Test Sam Darnold

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