Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked: Drake Maye Deserves MVP—New England Patriots Star’s Historic Case

Starting point is 00:00:00 A hot debate currently in the NFL is the MVP race. Well, Drake May, after 17 weeks, is the MVP of the NFL. Let us tell you how he's closed the case. This is Locked-on Patriots. You are Locked-on Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcasts network, your team every day. What's happening? I am your host, Nick Cattles, born and raised in New England, been covering the paths for the past 16 years, also the co-host of the Greg Bedard Patriots podcast with Nick Cattels and a sports radio veteran. Welcome to Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. On today's show in the third segment, we tell you what's been the most impressive aspect of this unreal 2025 regular season. In our second segment, we discuss who to sit and who not to sit this Sunday. But first, heading into Sunday, Drake Bay is no doubt the MVP.

Starting point is 00:01:11 Today's episode is brought to by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, and use code Lockdown NFL for $20 off your first purchase. I have no idea, no idea who is going to play on Sunday. I don't have any idea how much Matthew Stafford or Drake May are going to actually play on Sunday. None of us do. But right now, after 17 weeks as I sit here discussing the NFL MVP race, I tell you, it is no longer a race. After 17 weeks, Drake May is the NFL's MVP. If the vote was right now, Drake May would win.

Starting point is 00:01:56 win the MVP and there are so many different reasons why i know going back a few weeks ago we had this conversation and at the time i had said drake may is leading the mvp race and i really felt that way then i thought he took a step back i thought matthew stafford took a step forward but after what we saw this past week i think the case has been closed the case has been made through these 17 weeks that drake may is the guy he is analytically better than ever Everyone in the NFL, Evan Lazar from Patriots.com posted that Drake May leads the NFL in total EPA, total QBR, completion rate, completion percentage over expected, yards per attempt, and passerating. Speaking of passerating, I want you to try to absorb this. NFL researcher on Twitter posted, Drake May, his passerating by situation, these QB ranks, okay? Overall, as Evan Lazzar pointed out,

Starting point is 00:03:00 Drake May is number one in passerating, 112.9. He is also first in passerating when it comes to deep passes, 20 plus ear yards, under pressure, on the road, when trailing, past the sticks, versus zone coverage, versus the blitz, versus sub-packages, eight different categories, and there are more. I just gave you eight. Eight categories that where you look at pass-a-rating, Drake May is number one in football.

Starting point is 00:03:34 Deep passes under pressure on the road when trailing, pass-to-sticks versus zone, versus blitz, versus sub-packages. Now, I don't know what happened to Drake outside the numbers, but he's only the second best in passerating when throwing the football outside the numbers. And he's only second best in passerating when throwing the football in two tight windows. And my goodness, he plummets all the way down to fourth,

Starting point is 00:04:01 I kid, I kid, on third and fourth down passer rating. When you look at passerating, when you look at situation, scenario, Drake May is analytically better than everyone. And we can talk about the level of competition. We can talk about the schedule, which seemingly is the only thing the national media wants to talk about when telling you Matthew Stafford is going to be the MVP or should be the MVP, whoever is making that case.

Starting point is 00:04:30 The only thing they can do is point to the schedule. But focus on the situations, focus on the context. Because when you're going against a team that might not be a great team, it is tougher to succeed on third and fourth down. But yet, Drake May is top five and passerating on third and fourth down. No matter who you're playing in the NFL, completing passes in tight windows is tough. Yet Drake May is second impassarating when it comes to tight windows. Same thing with outside the numbers. No matter who you're playing, when you're facing the blitz,

Starting point is 00:05:06 it's not the easiest thing in the world to be successful. But yet, Drake May is first impassarating against the blitz. You get the idea. Incredible poise. But let's get to the schedule. Let's get to that schedule conversation, shall we? What about common opponents? What if we looked at Matthew Stafford and Drake May's statistics against common opponents?

Starting point is 00:05:34 You know what that would tell you? It would tell you that Drake May has the edge. Mike Cadillick of CLNS, who does great work, posted after Monday Night Football's game, where Matthew Stafford threw three picks, including one pick six, should have been two pick sixes. Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee, Tampa, Baltimore, Atlanta, six common opponents between Drake May and Matthew Stafford. Drake May and Matthew Stafford, when it comes to passing, pretty much a wash. Completion percentage, 69%, 71% Stafford, 2% edge. Passing yards, Stafford has like 50 more passing yards.

Starting point is 00:06:07 Touchdowns, Stafford has one more touchdown, but Stafford has three more interceptions, and then you look at the difference between the two quarterbacks on the ground. And Drake May has 259 rushing yards compared to Matthew Stafford's minus 10. And then you have a touchdown run. And Matthew Stafford has zero touchdown runs. And Drake May's impact in the run game cannot and should not be overlooked. That puts more offense on him. And it results in more production.

Starting point is 00:06:39 But that's just the counting stats, which again, even if you look at the overall picture counting stats, pretty close between the two guys. Taylor Kyle's from CL&S has even more info when it comes to common opponents. He looks at the metrics. He looks at the analytics. Drake May is better. An average depth of target. Adjusted completion percentage and big time throw percentage.

Starting point is 00:07:02 And if you look at the numbers, Drake May relies against these common opponents. He relies less on play action, which theoretically makes it easier on the quarterback. All the stats would tell you that. Drake May also relies less on yards after the catch against these common opponents than Matthew Stafford. And Drake May has a better turnover worthy play percentage at 3.1%. Matthew Stafford's at 4.2%. And let's also not forget that Drake May is not throwing the football to Pooka Nakuwa. arguably the best receiver in football.

Starting point is 00:07:46 Let's also not forget that Drake May does not have Devante Adams as his number two receiver, a guy who still consider one of the best receivers in all of football. Let's also not forget that Drake May has much, much, much less experience than Matthew Stafford, which means what he's doing at this level, to me, is even more impressive. I mean, this is like old-school shout-out Dugie Hauser-type stuff in his second season. And let's just, speaking of that, look at the history. This is from NFL researcher on Twitter. Drake May has 30 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions at 23 years old.

Starting point is 00:08:32 The only other quarterback with 30 plus passing touchdowns and fewer than 10 interceptions in a season under the age of 25 was Lamar Jackson when he did it at age 22. And guess what? That season, Lamar Jackson happened to win the MVP. NFL on CBS posted 13 plus wins and 30 plus passing touchdowns in a first or second season in NFL history. Only four guys have done that. Lamar Jackson, 2019, as I just mentioned.

Starting point is 00:09:07 Kurt Warner did it in 1999. Dan Marino did it in 1984. and you have Drake May this season. Did you know that Lamar Jackson, Kurt Warner, and Dan Marino in those three seasons, every single one of those three guys happened to win the MVP award. Drake May, after 17 weeks, we'll see what happens week 18,

Starting point is 00:09:32 but after 17 weeks, Drake May is your NFL MVP. Case closed. Sitting, Every meaningful pat on Sunday is not the way to approach this weekend. We'll tell you why next as we continue with today's Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The NFL season is in full swing and there's nothing like being at the game.

Starting point is 00:10:02 The crowd noise, the energy, cheering alongside other fans, watching at home is great. But being in the stadium, it just hits different. The frustrating part has always been getting tickets, It's waiting in queues, dealing with logins and watching prices change right at checkout. That's why the GameTime app gives the advantage back to fans. It's the hack for unlocking amazing NFL tickets and experiences in just a few taps. You pull up the Game Time app, check out upcoming NFL games. Choose one, and you find great ticket options almost instantly.

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Starting point is 00:11:17 all for just five bucks a month. Or if you want to go the full year, get a little bit of a discount, $50 for the year. Go to lockdownpatriots.supercast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. Also, while you're hanging out at YouTube, if you are hanging out at YouTube, don't forget to do a couple things that help us.

Starting point is 00:11:37 Press that thumbs up. Give us that like, hit that like button. We appreciate you. Also, don't forget to throw a comment in. Do you think Drake May has put a headlock on this MVP race? Do you think after 17 weeks, case closed? Award should be his. And don't forget to subscribe. Do not forget to sub. All right. So how should the Patriots approach Sunday? How should they approach this game on Sunday? When you look at the playoff seating and what's likely going to happen, I would say it is very likely Denver will be the one. They're playing the Chargers, and the Chargers are sitting Justin Herbert. Now, I know some people think, you know, oh, well, maybe Jim Harbaugh is making a statement that he wants to play the Patriots. I think it's more the Chargers are headed to the playoffs. Their starting quarterback is playing with a broken hand, and they don't have their

Starting point is 00:12:29 starting offensive tackles. If you have no reason to play, I mean, if it's not going to make a huge difference with your seating, why would you throw Justin Herbert out there, especially against a Denver Broncos pass rush, which is the best in the NFL. So I think it's very likely Denver wins against L.A., which means the Patriots end up being the number two or number three seed. Now, how this works is if the Patriots lose on Sunday to the Dolphins in the Jaguars beat Tennessee, then the Patriots would end up the third seat.

Starting point is 00:13:03 So how do I think Mike Vrable will approach Sunday? I think almost everyone is going to play in this game. Mike Vrable from day one, this is something we've discussed, and I'll tell you how I would approach Sunday in a couple minutes, but we've talked about this from day one. Mike Vrable stood at the podium during his introductory press conference, and he preached effort and finish, effort and finish, effort and finish. And I just don't know how the head coach can go back to this locker room of guys,

Starting point is 00:13:34 that he has been screaming effort and finish towards from the very beginning of this process. I don't know how you go back to that locker room and say, you know what, we're not going to quite finish. We're going to sit a bunch of dudes in the final regular season game. I just, I don't think that's going to happen. Now, will he play everybody? I'm not so sure that's going to happen. Will he play almost everyone for the entirety of the game?

Starting point is 00:14:03 I'm not sure if that's going to happen. But I would be very surprised if we see, I don't know, half of the starter sitting on Sunday, I would be surprised by that. I would be surprised by that. If you're going to push the effort and finish, if you're going to push this idea of running through the tape, so to speak,

Starting point is 00:14:24 and never taking your foot off the gas pedal, then I think you've got to play most of your guys. And I do think that's what Mike Grable do, what he will do on. Sunday. I think that's what's going to happen. Can't tell you for how long. Now, my opinion on all of this is that you can't control what others do. I see a lot of people talk about, oh, well, what if you have to play this team or that team or this team or that? You can't control what others do. We don't know what the final results are going to be. We just don't. Now, I think

Starting point is 00:14:57 if I was going to put money on it, the Patriots beat the Dolphins. And, you know, And then the chargers lose to the Broncos, and it ends up being Patriots Chargers in that wildcard round. But that's just a guess. You don't know how things are going to end up. Maybe Denver finds a way to lose against Trey Lance. Find it unlikely, but maybe nothing is impossible. So you can't control others. You can't control the sixth seed or the seventh seed.

Starting point is 00:15:28 You can only control what you do. And to me, you know, being healthier is more important than winning on Sunday. I would rather have a team that is more healthy for the wild card round than trying to play everybody and end up, you know, winning. But does somebody get banged up? Does somebody who had a prior injury get even more injured? So I actually, I focus on the health. more than winning on Sunday, but with that said, I would not sit everyone because I think some guys need to play. So here's what I would do. Here's my approach. Will Campbell. If he's

Starting point is 00:16:14 healthy, if he can play, he should play. Will Campbell should be out there. He's missed the last several weeks, play him a couple of series, get him the reps, knock off the rust. If Bradley Chubb is playing, that would be a nice challenge for Will Campbell. that he can face coming back and just get him ready for playoff football. Will Campbell should play. Milton Williams should also play. It's been six, seven weeks

Starting point is 00:16:44 since Milton Williams was playing full tilt on a football field. I'm going to play him. Again, I'm not playing him the whole game. I would play him a couple of series, maybe two or three series, but I would get Milton Williams back out on the field. I would get that motor running again.

Starting point is 00:17:02 Now, for people who I would not play at all, the people I would sit, I'm sitting anyone who is dinged up, sit down. And I'm talking about guys who have been recently dinged up, who you think would be better off getting another game off. Robert Spillane, I'm sitting. Carlton Davis, little banged up, sitting. Harold Landry, sat last week, sitting again this week. Kishan Booty returning from a concussion.

Starting point is 00:17:34 If he is even capable or able to return, I would sit him. What is one more game going to do for Kishon Booty? Jared Wilson, if I've got to sit Jared Wilson, also coming off a concussion. I would do that. I would also sit players that are, you know, 30-ish. Stefan Diggs, I would sit. And I know he's, you know, what, 30 yards. away from hitting the 1,000 yard incentive or whatever. I'd sit him. Early 30s, ACL, most important

Starting point is 00:18:08 receiver on the team right now. I'm sitting him. Morgan Moses, 34, you sit. Garrett Bradbury, 30, you sit. Tight ends. Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, both past 30 years old. I would sit those guys. So that's who I'm sitting. Anybody who's dealing with an injury that I think could actually do even more damage, hasn't missed a ton of time necessarily, I'm sitting those guys. But I'm playing Will Campbell, I'm playing Milton Williams, and by the way, I'm also playing Drake May. Oh my God. I am.

Starting point is 00:18:43 I'm going to play him for the first half. Now, if it ends up being a blowout, then you sit him or whatever. But I would go into this game planning on playing him for the first half. He still needs to continue to develop the chemistry with Kyle Williams, since we don't know what's going on with Kay Sean Booty. Mack Hollins is going to be out. for at least the beginning of the playoffs, he still needs to continue to build that chemistry

Starting point is 00:19:04 with Kyle Williams and Efton Chisholm. I would be smart with Drake May. You can absolutely control the situation with Drake May. Get rid of the football quickly. Let him know, right? Not only scheme things up so he can get rid of the ball quickly, but let him know.

Starting point is 00:19:24 Get rid of the freaking ball quickly, Drake. We're not trying to be a hero, Drake, okay it's the final regular season game you don't have to go bananas so get rid of the football quickly be smart but i do think you play drake may even if it's just for a quarter but let him know he understands let him know that he has to understand that he's got to stay out of harm's way if there's any pressure throw the ball in the seventh row couldn't care less if it's intentional grounding just get rid of the football that's what i would do all right the most impressive of regular season feat for this Pat's team came to fruition last week.

Starting point is 00:20:03 We'll talk about that next. This is Lockdown Patriots, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. This has been an incredibly impressive season, obviously. Obviously, 13 and 3, chance to go to 14 and 3, maybe find a miraculous way to finish as the number one seed, most likely be the 2 or the 3. you're going to get a home playoff game. You won the AFC East. It has been a splendid season.

Starting point is 00:20:32 But the most impressive thing about this season is the fact the Patriots finished perfect on the road, eight and zero. And I just want to, I tweeted this at Nixie Radio, if you want to follow me there. I tweeted this earlier in the week. The Patriots won eight road games this year. Just think about it this way. In 2023, they had four wins. Total. In 2024, they had four wins, total. The Patriots had as many wins on the road this regular season as they had combined wins the prior two seasons. That is nuts. And I think that truly puts everything into perspective. The Patriots communications team posted that the Patriots were the only undefeated team on the road this season. This is the third time in team history. They have finished 8 and 0 on the road.

Starting point is 00:21:27 joined the 2016 and 2007 teams who went a perfect 8-0. And I looked up those teams. And I wanted to see average age, right? Average age. So you look at 2016 and 2007, 2007, the average age of the Patriots was 27 years old. They were the third oldest team. Or they would be the third oldest team in 2025. They'd be the third oldest team this season with an average age of 27.

Starting point is 00:21:59 That's an experienced team. In 2016, their average age was 26.07. If you go back, it would be around 15th, right in the middle of the pack. Patriots this year, their average age is close to the 2016 team, 26.08, so 0.01, actually older than the 2016 team. They are the 11th youngest team in the league this season. So, of course, you've got to talk about other things like you had Tom Brady at quarterback, who had been in the league forever by 2016, versus Drake May, first full season as a starter. You had Bill Belichick, who had, you know, the long tenure, understood the system.

Starting point is 00:22:47 Everybody was on the same page, blah-bitty-blah. That's a lot of experience. You had a lot of guys that were, you know, returning. You didn't have as much turnover as this team had in the offseason. So there's a lot of, you know, lines of delineation that you can kind of create there. But you have to give this team a ton of credit, you know, because they are a young team, just on the outside of the 10th youngest team in the league. And you've got, you know, tons of snaps, tons of snaps from the rookie class.

Starting point is 00:23:21 We talked about that a couple weeks ago. And you have, you know, somebody like Will Campbell and Jared Wilson on the left side of your offensive line on the road, dealing with noise, two rookies on the left side of your line, dealing with chaos on the road. Not so much this past weekend with the Jets because Jets fans have rightfully so quit on that team. And I think there were more Patriots fans in that stadium than there were Jets fans. But you get the point. You go on the road. You've got a young team. You're depending on a lot of rookies playing significant snaps.

Starting point is 00:23:57 And you go 8.0. Kyle Williams, his performance against Tampa and Baltimore on the road. Trayvion Henderson's performance against Tampa on the road. We're talking about some big time road performances from first year guys and obviously second year guys with Drake May. And I think that makes it even more impressive. Now, let's talk about coaching. This coaching staff is the reason why you're 8 and 0 when you're away from Gillette Stadium.

Starting point is 00:24:29 Coaching staff, they have had guys prepared for being on the road. They have managed when it comes to nutrition, when it comes to the health side of it, right? We always hear Mike Vrable talking about, all right, it's going to be a short week. It's going to be this kind of week. The training staff is ready. The nutrition staff is ready. Everybody has a plan. We know exactly how we're going to deal with this week.

Starting point is 00:24:54 And if we got to cut certain things short or we have an opportunity to extend certain things, that's what we're going to do. It has been a terrific job of management by the coaching staff and by everybody else on that staff. Just awesome. And it's all about setting the tone and the mentality for your football team. Mike Vrable sets the tone and he has developed the mentality. and that has trickled down to the rest of the coaching staff, and it has trickled down to the guys that are actually on the field, and they go out there with the right mentality.

Starting point is 00:25:29 Couldn't care less if it's a road game. We're going to win this game. It's all that matters. Speaking of the coaching staff, Mike Reese had an interesting nut. Mike Vrable joins George Seaford as the only first year coach to go undefeated on the road. That was in 1989, the San Francisco. Francisco 49ers. So you got Mike Rable and George Seifert as the only first year coaches

Starting point is 00:25:56 that led a team to go undefeated on the road. So when you compare the 89 49ers, I mean, come on. And this should put this eight and zero road record into even more perspective for all of us to truly appreciate. The 49ers in 1989, they were loaded. They were loaded with experience. quarterback, Joe Montana, Roger Craig. I mean, we're talking about a team that was absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball with experienced players, guys that had been in the league for years. As a matter of fact, how experienced.

Starting point is 00:26:36 I talked about the age a few minutes ago of the Patriots and how it stacked up to the two other Patriots teams that have gone 8 and 0 on the road. Well, I just looked it up. The 49ers in 1989 out of that. their 22 starters, they had one guy, they had one player out of the 22 starters that was younger than 25 years old. Think about that. One guy out of 22 that was younger than 25 years old. And think about how many players the Patriots have relied on that are, you know, 25 or younger. I mean, I could just sit there and talk about three of them, Will Campbell, Jared Wilson, and Drake May.

Starting point is 00:27:22 I mean, it's truly unbelievable. And by the way, as I mentioned, the two prior seasons, the Patriots won a combined eight games. You look at that 1989 49ers team, they were 10 and 6 in 1988, the year prior, and won the NFC West. But if you want to extend beyond that, in five of the four. the prior six seasons to 1989, the 49ers won the NFC West. We are talking about a perennial contender. That's the type of team that went undefeated on the road with a first year head coach. Oh, and then this year's Patriots with Mike Vrable says a lot about your head coach.

Starting point is 00:28:10 The team's mental toughness has been there all year long. We talked about the Sunday win against the Jets this past weekend being a professional win, consistent professionalism from this coaching staff and these players when it comes to being at the facility, putting the work in, going out there and doing the right things on the field. And going 8 and 0 on the road should, yes, also make you feel pretty good about this team's chances of being dangerous in the playoffs. They'll get a home game. We'll see what else happens after that. But hey, man, it's not like this team should be afraid of going on the road and winning a football game. I think that's the most impressive feat of this season, 8 and 0 on the road. That wraps up this edition of Lockdown Patriots.

Starting point is 00:29:03 Thank you for making us your first listen and for being in every dare. Reach out to me on Twitter at Nick C Radio. Don't forget to throw a comment in on the YouTube channel. Hit that like button and subscribe. and if you're looking for a gift for someone, make it easy. Ask for the Everydayer Club. Add free episodes of this show, exclusive Discord, server access, and more. Subscriptions can be gifted through lockdownpatriots.supercast.com.

Starting point is 00:29:26 Have a great day, and we will see you tomorrow for our Dolphins Patriots crossover episode. Happy New Year.

Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked: Drake Maye Deserves MVP—New England Patriots Star’s Historic Case

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