Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 1/11/17- Breaking Down the Patriots Defense vs. the Texans Defense

Episode Date: January 11, 2017

Chris Simoneau breaks down the Patriots offense vs. the Texans Defense. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. Good morning, I'm Chris Simino, Patriots Insider for Scout.com, and also your host of Locked On Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Wednesday, January 11th, 2017, so it's time to get ready for the Texans who the Patriots will be facing this Saturday night in Foxborough. Game kicks off at 8-15, which is really no surprise when you consider that the Patriots are the premier team in the NFL, and the NFL wants to get them in the prime time. The Texans are now 10-7 after their wildcard victory over the quarterbackless Raiders

on Sunday. So the last time the Patriots played the Texans was in Week 3. Patriots won 27-0 behind rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett. They did what they had to do to get the win. At the time, Houston was playing pretty well, and it was a bit of a surprise that the Patriots actually manhandled them the way they did with, again, a third string quarterback, but it is what it is. The Texans have improved, but they didn't face Tom Brady at the first meeting and they

got rocked then, so although they have improved, so have the Patriots. So we're going to get into the matchup between the Patriots defense and the Texans offense today, and on Friday we're going to get into the Patriots offense versus the number one ranked Texans defense. The reason we're not going to get into that tomorrow is because we've got a little treat for you guys, which I'm going to talk to you guys about later in the show. So before we get started, I just want my listeners to know

that I can be found on Twitter under the handle Chris underscore Simono, C-H-R-I-S underscore S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U. And if you have any questions for the show, be it about the Patriots, myself, Patriots Insider, or if you're looking to advertise here on Locked On Patriots, you can email me directly at simono.christopher5 at gmail.com that's S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U

dot C-H-R-I-S-T-O-P-H-E-R the number 5 at gmail.com if you are a member of Patriots Insider on scout.com you can contact me directly on the site via message alright enough with the formalities let's get to the good stuff so before we get to our matchup breakdown

I wanted to get you guys updated on some interesting Patriots news and notes here So we're in the postseason And we haven't really talked about it a lot Because mainly we focus on the end of the regular season But now it's here, it's Wednesday, games in four days So it's time So Chris Long is starting to get excited about heading into his AFC Divisional Playoff Chris is a nine-year veteran.

This is his first taste of the postseason, which is pretty cool. Some believe that that's a disadvantage, but Bill Belichick answered that question famously back in 2015, saying that experience meant zero as far as playoff experience, and he hasn't backed off that stance in 2016. He says now it's about who executes, who plays the game the right way, and a guy like Chris Long shouldn't have any trouble adjusting to the playoffs. I personally don't believe that Long's going to have any trouble

because all he has to do is play his game. He's an energy guy. He's got a motor. He's going to do fine. Long isn't alone. There's a lot of guys that are getting their first taste of the postseason here. You have Shane McClellan, Deion Lewis, Barkevius Mingo, Chris Hogan, Eric Rowe, Trey Flowers, Matt Langell, and there's also nine other rookies on the active roster who are getting their first taste of the playoffs too.

So when you hear the comments that Belichick says, and then you look at some of the other rosters around the league, and you look at some of the champs in the past, he makes 100% makes sense because, yeah, there's always going to be inexperienced players that can play in the playoffs because every year the teams change. So it is what it is. And there's always going to be veterans that slip through the cracks

and just, you know, say they play for a bad team. That's what happened with Chris Long. He was with the Rams for a long time. The Rams were terrible during his time there. He was pretty good, but he didn't have that great a team around him. You know, football's 22 guys on the field, 53 men on a roster. It takes a team to be able to get to the playoffs. Unfortunately for some of these guys, they just haven't been on the right team. Now they are. They make their collective effort. They do what they're going to do. It

doesn't matter if they have experience or not. They're going to come out and they're going to play well. So that's how Belichick feels, and I 100% agree with him on that. Apparently, in other news, apparently the Las Vegas is big fans of the Patriots. They were made a 14.5 point favorite on Sunday, and then the number jumped to 16 later on that day. This is the biggest spread since 1998. The Vikings were 16 point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. That Vikings was the 15-1 Vikings team with Randy Moss as a rookie. They were pretty dominant. They ended up losing, actually, in the

NFC Championship to the Atlanta Falcons. In 1994, the 49ers were 17-and-a-half-point favorites over the Bears, and then they were 18-point favorites over the Chargers in the Super Bowl. So the 49ers and 94, in fact, personally, myself, I believe, I'm 40 years old, I still believe to this day that that's the greatest team I've ever seen on both sides of the ball, combination of talent. And the 2007 Patriots, I would say, are right there with them. But the 1994 Chargers, 94-49ers pulled it off and they finished the deal on like 07. So I would say that 94-9ers are the best team I've ever seen personally.

They were 18-point favorites over the Chargers in the Super Bowl and they covered by 7 points. So needless to say, that team is pretty dominant. Now, there is a chance that this line for the Patriots and the Texans could surpass the three or four mentioned spreads and be the biggest playoff spread in the history of the NFL. I don't think the game's going to be all that close, but let's not forget that Houston has the best defense in football. So, you know, these spread things, I'll admit, too,

that Las Vegas and whoever these handicappers are and whoever goes and comes up with the spreads, they're simply amazing. They are so good at what they do. They're so good. That's why it's so difficult and that's why people develop gaming problems and things of that nature. Because it's so hard to win and to beat the odds makers because they know what they're doing so when they make the patriots 16 point favorites there has to be a reason for it it's not just because a lot of people put money on the patriots here this and that that's part of it but a big big reason for

it too is because the guys that they have as experts that look into it really know what they're doing so you know i never really talked too much about that and that's not really something you talked about a lot. But the bottom line is those guys are impressive. And if you want to get an idea of what's going to happen in a game, take a look at what the lines come out when they come out, especially the final line when they know who's injured. It could be things a guy gets in a car accident, something stupid.

It could be a guy gets in trouble. They know. They have an idea. So always keep an eye on that stuff because those lines are there for a reason and they're incredible at that. So again, Patriots' fourth largest favorites in the history of the NFL playoffs. I personally believe that, I don't know if they're going to cover a 16-point spread, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pushed and ended up winning by 16 points but we're going to get into that more later when i explain to you how many points i think each team is going to score right now we're going to take a minute to tell you about one of our sponsors so patriots insider on scout.com provides daily news videos from nfl.com fantasy football

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Again, that's nwe.scout.com to register today. This is an unbelievable deal. Go take advantage of it. Again, nwe.scout.com. Go sign up for Patriots Insider today and start taking advantage of your savings. And you'll also get some great material that you can read and watch go check it out so what we don't want to talk about today and do a breakdown is the Patriots defense versus the Texans offense so Patriots defense was one of those defenses that's typical Bill Belichick just keep getting better keep getting better it

may not look pretty all the time and I, and I'll admit because I was not happy with the amount of yardage that they gave up. But as the year went on and they kept getting better and better at it, next thing you know, they're not giving up as much yardage. They're getting third down stops. They're starting to adjust to life without Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones. The pass rush starts coming together, and now you look at it. They allow 15.6 points per game, first in the NFL.

326.4 total yards allowed per game, eighth in the NFL. Only 238 passing yards per game, which is 12th in the NFL, which is a big jump from where they were earlier in the season. And only 88.6 yards rushing per game, fourth in the NFL. So the only statistical category where they're not in the top 10 is passing yards allowed per game which they're ranked 12th so it's not like they're down in the 20s or anything like that they're still in the top half of the league they're in the top third of the league almost so they've had an impressive run this year on defense

and i know it's not pretty and it looks kind kind of bland, but they're doing it, and they're doing it right, and a lot of it has to do with Trey Flowers getting an incredible pass rush and injecting that into the Patriots defense, which has allowed everybody else to improve. We're going to get into that in a minute, but good numbers overall from this defense this season. Great job by that defense, and I was on them all year, I'll admit it, but they definitely stepped up and did their jobs. Now, the Texans' offense, which is the opposite of what we were just discussing,

was just terrible. 17.4 points per game, 29th in the league. 314.7 yards per game, 29th in the league. Terrible. 198.5 yards passing per game. Under 200 yards passing per game for an NFL team in the year 2016, even though it's 2017,

but this is the 2016 season. You guys get where I'm coming from. That's terrible. That's awful. You're under 200 yards passing per game after going out and signing Brock Osweiler, and you have DeAndre Hopkins and C.J. Fedorowicz and all these other guys um the name other guys names escaping me the kid from Notre Dame they have some weapons on this team Brock Osweiler is a big strong arm quarterback how the

heck is this team only throwing for 198 yards per game I'll tell you how Brock Osweiler doesn't fit in this offense they run the same offense the Patriots run. This is Bill O'Brien. He's running the same stuff the Patriots run. There's a couple things that are different, but it's essentially the same thing. Osweiler doesn't fit. He doesn't fit what they're trying to do. And he had a decent game against Oakland when he had to come in.

But you know what? One of the reasons he had a decent game is because they had designed quick passes for him to get the ball out. If he has to actually make a read and make a play, which he's going to have to do against the Patriots, it's not going to be pretty. One thing the Texans do well on offense, though, is they run the ball pretty well. 116.2 rushing yards per game, which is eight. So when you look at the numbers in this matchup, it's quite clear that the Patriots defense is not a good matchup for the offensively challenged Texans. Honestly, the only way Houston has a chance to get anything through the air

is to have Brock Osweiler play his best game as a Texan. And although, again, he was better last week, he's up against a much better defense that has already faced him once this year, so they have tape on him from this season. Osweiler hasn't changed, but the Patriots defense certainly has. So it's not like he has any advantage because he's going to see the same thing.

He's starting week three. He's not. And Jamie Collins has had a good—actually, Jamie Collins had his best game of the season against Houston in week three. He's not even on the team anymore. He's going to see a totally different defense. He's going to see a defense that has a legitimate pass rush. He's going to see better coverage in the secondary. He's not going to see as good a linebacker play,

but it's not going to matter when he's getting sacked. Another factor working against the Texans is the improvement, again, of the Patriots' pass rush. Trey Flowers, he was nothing in Week 3. He wasn't a factor at all. Now they have a legitimate inside pass rush, and with the aptitude of that passing game, like I talked about, the Patriots are going to be able to focus on stopping Lamar Miller

in that strong Texans running game. Obviously, the plan is to take away DeAndre Hopkins, too, along with the aforementioned Miller. And when they do that, you know, not when, it's if. Not if, it's when the Patriots accomplish this. Texans are going to not only struggle to score, but how are they going to move the ball? That's the one thing. People are saying, oh, no, they should be able to score some points. I don't think so. And I don't think they're going to be able to move the ball? That's the one thing. People saying, oh, no, they should be able to score some points. I don't think so, and I don't think they're going to be able to move the ball at all.

Patriots haven't just improved their pass rush. They've gotten better in coverage, which is definitely a product of the pass rush. The two go hand-in-hand, but the coverage has been better, and it's obvious. Malcolm Butler's been great for the last two months, and if Osweiler isn't careful, he's going to get picked a couple times, and that would be the death sentence for the last two months. And if Osweiler isn't careful, he's going to get picked a couple times, and that would be the death sentence for the Texans because they're going to be getting three and outs like it's going crazy. So to get turnovers on top of that, it's not good.

Overall, the Texans' offense just doesn't match up well with this Patriots' defense. And the one thing they do well, run the ball, is the one thing the Patriots are best at, stopping. So throughout the season, I've tried to give Patriots opponents the benefit of the doubt, but this is not one of those weeks. Houston's coming off a wild card win over a team that simply threw in the towel when Derek Coggan injured.

They were not interested in playing that game last week. You could see it. The Raiders weren't into it. They looked like the Dolphins freezing their butts off up in Pittsburgh. It was a disgusting weekend of football last week, and Houston, I hate to say this, especially as a guy who only stands at 5'6", but Houston was basically the tallest midget last week against Oakland. They played against a team that didn't have their guy.

If they had their guy, they probably wouldn't have been in that game, and Houston wouldn't even be here. They would have had to face the Chiefs last week, and they probably would have lost. So Houston got a little lucky. They're coming off. They played a team that wasn't very good, and they also played a game in a controlled climate of a retractable dome,

so the conditions were perfect. So Saturday night's game kicks off at 8.15 Eastern time. The temperature's supposed to be 23 degrees. Twenty-three. You think guys that play in Texas and Houston all year long Kicks off at 8.15 Eastern time. The temperature is supposed to be 23 degrees. 23. You think guys that play in Texas and Houston all year long and practice out there and, again, play in the controlled climate are going to want to come to Foxborough where they've gotten whooped the last four times they've come here

into 23-degree temperatures to face a Patriots team that is more hungry than they've ever been to get their fifth title? Yeah, I don't think that's a good thing for the Texans. So if and when, it's more like when, the Patriots jump out to a two score lead, are the Texans going to fight through conditions and adversity to pull off a huge upset in Foxborough?

Yeah, I don't see that happening, just like I don't see the Texans scoring in double figures. So, all this stuff that I talked about leads to this. Predicted Texans points. You Texans fans that listen to this show, you're not going to like this. I predict the Texans score nine points. They're not even going to get into double figures.

They're going to kick three field goals. They're not going to get in the end zone. They're going to get shut down by this gelling, hungry, disrespected Patriots defense. So, again, I predict the Texans to score nine points on Saturday night. I don't even think they're going to break the double-figure mark. So I'm not going to talk to you about predicting scoring until Friday. Remember I said on Friday we're not doing that tomorrow?

We're going to do that on Friday. But, again, the Texans will not score a touchdown, and they will kick three field goals, and if they end up with nine points, maybe they could score a touchdown, miss the extra point, and they kick a field goal. But either way, they're not scoring double figures. I just don't see it happening.

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not thinking. You're not taking advantage of what you can take advantage of. Go to SeatGeek. See what they're offering. I guarantee you'll love it. So I want to thank you guys all for joining us on this Wednesday edition of Locked On Patriots. Be sure to go to iTunes, subscribe to our show today, as in right now, and make sure to tell your friends about us too.

Here at Locked On Patriots, we are all about getting Patriots fans the most info you need to know to be the most in-the-know Patriots fan. Be sure to join us tomorrow. So this is what I was leading up to. We're going to have a crossover show with Locked On Texans. And on Friday, we're going to break down the Patriots offense

versus the Texas defense, and we'll predict our final score. Again, I'm Chris Simino, your host. Thank you for joining us, and get excited, Patriots fans. Just three days away from game day. Have a great day, everybody. Somewhere deep inside your mind, there's a place where dreams live. And now those dreams have the chance to come to life because USAA Life Insurance is sponsoring the Live Your Dream Sweepstakes

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