Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 11/13/16- Breaking Down the Patriots and Seahawks Special Teams

Episode Date: November 13, 2016

Chris Simoneau gives you the updates on the injury report and takes a deep dive into the Patriots and Seahawks special teams units. #FootballOutsiders #Patriots Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Talkspace.com slash boom. B-O-O-M. Good afternoon. I'm Chris Simino, your host of Lockdown Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Sunday, game day, November 13th, 2016. We are just a few hours from kickoff of the first game between the Patriots and the Seahawks since Super Bowl XLIX. So today we're going to update you guys on the injury report, take a stab at some of the inactives. We'll take a look at that. And we'll also break down the special teams units of both the Patriots and the Seahawks. Something we wanted to do yesterday, but ultimately I decided to wait until today and add it to the pregame report.

So there's been a lot of buildup over the last 72 hours with these two teams. to do yesterday, but ultimately I decided to wait until today and add it to the pre-game report. So there's been a lot of build-up over the last 72 hours with these two teams, but the game sometimes can be decided by special teams, so we're going to talk about that. So first and foremost, let's get down to Patriots news and notes. Let's get down to business here. Patriots have officially activated Deion Lewis for tonight's game. He adds an element of explosiveness to the backfield that they haven't had all season. But you get one back and you lose one at the same time. Possibly. Wide receiver Chris Hogan

is questionable. He has a back injury. So hopefully having Lewis back will alleviate some of that. But Chris Hogan's been really big for this offense as far as stretching the defense. And he's made plays in the passing game, and it's going to be a big loss not having him if he's not able to go. So hopefully Hogan is out there, but if not, they'll have to make do without him. Martellus Bennett, Julian Edelman, Alan Branch,

who are all listed on the injury report all week, are all expected to play tonight. Also, one guy to watch for tonight, Malcolm Mitchell. He is going to play. He's been battling an injury himself, but he'll be good to go. And if Chris Hogan's not out there, he's going to assume some of those snaps. So keep an eye on him. I have a feeling that he's going to make a play tonight.

For the Seahawks, like we've talked about all week, defensive end Michael Bennett is out with a knee injury. As is running back Thomas Rawls in an injured fibula. Listed as questionable, cornerback DeAndre Elliott. Offensive tackle Bradley Saul, tight end Luke Wilson. And we also know that running back Christian Michael is expected to play. That adds an element of speed to the running game that Seattle really does need if they have a chance to get the ball going tonight as far as the run

because they've really struggled running the ball. As we've discussed all week, the loss of Bennett's huge. It could be the deciding factor tomorrow, but let's not forget that the Patriots still have their hands full up front. They're still going to deal with Frank Clark and Cliff Averill, so it's not like it's just going to be easy. They've got to make plays happen. Russell Wilson has been battling some nagging injuries all season, but he appears to be the healthiest he has all year, so

Wilson is another one that the Patriots can have to deal with tonight. Regardless of his nagging injuries, I have a feeling he's going to have one of his better games. Speaking of tonight's game, it's a feeling he's going to have one of his better games. I'll speak at tonight's game. It's a godsend to the NFL. They've seen huge drops in their ratings over the first half of the season. The Patriots and the Seahawks are going to show how to draw the best ratings, I think, of the season to date. And this week will show the NFL's excuse of the election causing a huge drop in viewership, held any credence, which I don't believe is the case.

I just don't think believe is the case. I just don't think that's the reason. I think the NFL's ratings are down because of multiple reasons, including an overabundance of commercials, too many rule changes, far too many penalties, and it's all added up to a watered-down, kind of boring product. The talent in the NFL also seems slightly down right now. Quarterbacks are hard to find.

There doesn't really seem to be a lot of good ones. And it's just not the players. It's hard to explain, but last season and this season, it's just not there. They're just not as good as they were a couple years ago. But this happens. There's times in sports when there's down times, and I think that's what's happening with the NFL right now. And that's not helping at all either. The league does need to do a better job of flexing their good games at the prime time,

and Thursday night, it's got to go. It's time. Thursday night needs to be eliminated. But they won't because they make money off the commercial income, so I'm assuming that they'll never get rid of that, but they should because it's a terrible product, and nobody likes watching Thursday Night Football, but we're forced into it, so it is what it is.

But if they get rid of that, I think overall the ratings jump because having the games just on Sunday and Monday, it makes teams, it makes people really look forward to it all week, and that's one of the reasons they had the high ratings is because people are dying to see football all week, and then they finally get to see it on Sunday. Now they're getting hit up with it on Thursday too. It just kind of adds to it.

It's just over the top, and I think that's the big reason why they've seen a drop in the ratings too. So tonight, speaking of tonight also, weather is expected to be clear and crisp. Nice night out there. A little cold, a little chilly. So that'll be nice for the players, but the fans might not appreciate that all so much.

Seattle doesn't play in the nicest weather either, so this isn't really going to affect either team. Both of these teams are used to these type of temperatures. It's good when weather doesn't play a part. We don't have to listen to any excuses. When one of the teams loses and both teams are playing in perfect conditions, you're going to hear a guy talk about, oh, if we played this and played that, there'll be none of that. This game is going to come down to who the better team is tonight,

and whoever is the better team tonight will win the game. So that's what it comes down to. So local businesses, I just want to let you know, if you're interested in advertising on Locked On Patriots, please feel free to reach out to me via Twitter, where my profile name is Chris underscore Simono. That's C-H-R-I-S underscore S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U. You can also reach out to me on Facebook.

My name, Chris Siminoff. Not too hard to figure out. Type it in and you'll find me. Or you can email me directly at chrissimusc at yahoo.com. That's c-h-r-i-s-s-i-m-u-s-c, all one word, at yahoo.com. That's right, I'm a USC fan. I have a very happy USC fan today. Considering that we are part of the fastest growing podcast network in the world,

there's a good chance your business is going to see a boost after advertising with us. So definitely feel free to reach out to me. Easiest way is through email, but again, Twitter or Facebook works too. So reach out to local businesses if you want to advertise with us here on Lockdown Patriots. So every week and everyone else in this business talks about the offense and the defense and how they match up and who should ultimately win the game. But the one area that doesn't get enough love is special teams. It doesn't make a lot of sense because big plays on special teams tends to flip momentum and steady play on special teams

helps lead to more consistency on all three phases. So special teams dictates momentum, and in a lot of ways, it can dictate who's going to win the game. So we're going to take a look at who between the Patriots and Seahawks has an advantage, and how their special teams units match up. It would be easy to just go to the stats and pull up the major rankings and field goals and kick return yardage and all that other type of stuff and try to get an idea of who's going to be the team that makes the noise on special teams tonight, but I found a better way to do it, and the website that I use, it's great, it's Football Outsiders, so they do an awesome job of breaking it down. So their rankings are legit.

They use the DVOA system, which stands for Determined Value Over Average. So what they do is they break down five areas. And I promise, this isn't going to be boring. This is important stuff if you want to know how special teams works. They take field goals and extra points, kickoffs, kick returns, punts, and punt returns. That's the five categories. So Football Outsiders takes their formula to estimate how many points, compared to a league average, each team will receive from these five areas of special teams. It's a very interesting and smart way of looking at the effect of specials on the game. They They also have weather and domes effect, so they'll take it and they have

the adjusted DVOA that has the variables in it, and then they have a non-adjusted DVOA that doesn't take weather or domes into account. That just is what it is. I think that's also very smart and interesting way of looking at it too, because you're going to see teams dealing with these type of variables, and they want to take a look at both sides of it. The Patriots special teams overall is typically in the top 10. This season hasn't been any different. The Patriots are rated 8th in the NFL and they have a 2.8% DVOA.

So their adjusted DVOA would rank them 9th at 2.4. That's with taking the variables into account. But their non-adjusted DVOA is 2.9, which is the reason they jumped to 9th. So we can take an average of the two. So what I did was I took a look into the numbers because what you're hearing right now from me is basically making no sense. But this is where it actually makes sense. So you look at their overall, they're a negative 2.3 in field goals, extra points. What's the one thing you've been hearing all year?

Inconsistency from Steven Gostkowski. They haven't been the same in their field goal unit. They've missed extra points. Well, negative 2.3 in field goal, extra points. So that has been an area where they've had some trouble. They're 7.0 on kickoffs, which is one of their best areas overall. It's one of the best in football, actually. It's ranked number two in all the league.

They do a great job in kickoff. They force teams to return the ball, and they stuff them before they can get anywhere. So, you know, with the touchback rule going back to the 25 now, and the Patriots have decided that most of the time they're going to make teams return it on them. Typically the Patriots are making the play between the 15 and the 20. You take away those 7-8 yards away from a team on a regular basis and that's huge. That's one of the reasons why New England's had the second best Philadelphia being the best kickoff team in football this year.

Kick return is a 0.0. I mean, you can't get any more average than that. They're not getting anything done, but they're not hurting themselves either. So basically what the kick return is doing is getting the ball. You know, that's it. It's funny because it's ironic. You consider the Patriots, and they're all about eliminating mistakes, and that they say if you eliminate mistakes and you do the right things,

you're probably going to win most of the time. Well, look at that. They're at a 0.0 in kick return, and it hasn't hurt them, and that's one of the reasons why they have a better record than most teams in the league. So it's just interesting. It just plays right into what they believe in as a team. You know, not getting them anything, but not hurting them either.

Their punt team has been really good. The 4.5 DVOA punt return has been below average, though, with a negative 2.7. When you think back to some of the brain cramps from Julian Edelman, that number does make sense, but the punt team has been great. So, you know, they're kind of a yin and yang there as far as their punt being so good with their punt return being not so good. So overall, the coverage teams have been excellent, but the return teams and their field goal unit needs to pick up the pace if they want to push New England back into the top five where they typically

are. Belichick has always stressed the importance of special teams, and his team being ranked in the top ten year in and year out helps explain why they value special teams, specific players. And it also explains why they've been so consistent now for 15 years. You know, that's a big part of it. If you have good special teams every year and you're not messing up on that part of the game and not turning the ball over and creating big plays, that's going to go a big way towards winning, and that's one of the reasons why they've continued to do that seattle has a strong special teams unit too they're ranked 10th by football outsiders with a 1.3 overall dvoa their adjusted dvoa is 1.3 which would push them back to 12th but they're

non-adjusted as 2.1 which is why they have the number 10 rankings. Their field goal extra point team has struggled just like New England, coming in at negative 2.2 DVOA. They've done a good job on kickoffs, pretty good, 2.1 DVOA, and they've also done a good job on kick return with a 2.2, which makes sense when Lockett is your kick returner. He's dynamic. That guy can make plays. Their punt team has been bad, negative 4.3 DVOA. That's not something to be proud of. They've struggled there. But they've made up for it. Their punt return team has a 5.3 DVOA, which is one of the best in football.

They've been a little up and down, too. They're very similar to New England, which explains the reason why they're right near them in rankings as far as 8 to 10. They're close in defensive rankings, and they're also close in special teams rankings, which makes sense because they're both excellent teams. So overall, when you add up these factors, there seems to be an edge for the Patriots, but it's razor thin, and this matchup is a wash.

Hence the reason I predicted the score two days ago. Seattle has good return teams, but the Patriots, besides Philadelphia, like I said earlier, have the best coverage teams in the league. The struggling punt coverage for Seattle could be a problem when you face New England in past years, but this season the Patriots' punt return has been below average. As I said, Julian Edelman just hasn't been the same guy,

and I don't think it's going to hurt them. I just don't think that the issues that Seattle has had on punt will come up tonight. So I think both kickers have simply been okay. So add this all up, and we have a matchup with no clear advantage whatsoever. So if I bored you with all these numbers, I apologize, but I'm trying to help fans understand the game more, and seeing the effect of special teams helps that understanding. So understand where I'm coming from. I want people to understand what special teams brings to the game. Big thanks to Football Outsiders for all the work you guys do. Your special teams breakdowns are awesome, and they're a great source of information. So keep up the great work, guys, and all my readers, go check them out.

They're really good, all my readers, all my listeners. I do have readers out there too, though. Go check me out too on nwe.scout.com. But don't be shy. Go check out the football outsiders if you want to check out all these special teams rankings and break down. So, again, my prediction remains the same for today. Patriots 24, Seahawks 17. I think it's going to be a good

game. I think it's going to start a little slow, but as the game goes on, it's going to pick up. So thank you again for joining us on the fastest growing podcast network in the world, and be sure to join us tomorrow as we go through our studs and duds from tonight's game. Again, I'm your host Chris Simino for Locked On Patriots. Thank you for listening, Patriots fans. Have a great game. Enjoy it. Is democracy in danger or decline?

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