Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 1/1/17- Breaking Down the Patriots/Dolphins Matchup

Episode Date: January 1, 2017

Chris Simoneau, Patriots Insider for Scout.com, breaks down today's matchup between the 13-2 Patriots and 10-5 Dolphins. #patriots Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. Good morning, I'm Chris Simino, Patriots Insider for Scout.com, and also your host of Locked On Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Sunday, January 1st, 2017. Happy New Year's, everyone. I hope everyone 2017. Happy New Year's everyone. I hope everyone had a fun New Year's Eve and didn't overdo it too bad, although I know a lot of you are probably hurting right now. Just remember, Gatorade and McDonald's breakfast.

You'll be back to good in no time. Okay, enough with the hangover remedies. Let's talk about the matter at hand, the Patriots versus the Miami Dolphins. Today we're going to break down the matchup between the hated AFC East rivals, and we'll also give you guys a prediction for the game. Before we get to all that, I just want my listeners to know that I can be found on Twitter under the handle Chris underscore Simono, that's C-H-R-I-S underscore S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U. And if you have any questions for the show, be it about the Patriots, myself, Patriots

Insider, or advertising here on Locked on Patriots, you can email me directly at simono.christopher5 at gmail.com again that's simono, S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U dot

Christopher, C-H-R-I-S-T-O P-H-E-R 5, c-h-r-a-s-t-o-p-h-e-r five, as in the number five, at gmail.com. If you are already a member of Patriots Insider on scout.com, you can contact me directly on the site via message, but the best way to get a hold of me, again,

is through Twitter or through my email. Okay, let's get down to the good stuff here and talk about some injuries and all that good information that we like to provide from you guys. The inactive list has not been released yet. It's only 1147, so we're about 25 minutes away from seeing that come out yet, and we don't have time for that, so we're going to go ahead and project it for you guys. We do have an idea of who's going to play and who's going to sit, so this isn't just

something that we're throwing out there. We do know of three players that will absolutely be inactive. Cornerback Cyrus Jones, who's dealing with a knee injury. Danny Amendola is out, as he is also dealing with his high ankle sprain. And rookie wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell, who's been excellent the second half of this season and is really starting to come into his own, he is out today also with a knee injury. As for the other four, we predict that cornerback Justin Coleman, tackle Adrian Waddell, quarterback Jacoby Brissett, and special teams ace Matt

Slater, who's listed as a wide receiver but is a terrible one, he's still dealing with his foot injury. I predict those four will be the other four added to the three aforementioned players that I spoke of. Obviously, we could be wrong, but I don't think we'll be off by more than one player. The rest of the injury report looks like this. Tom Brady is questionable with his thigh injury. They talked about a knee, but it's been a thigh all along. But I believe he'll play.

I don't know how long he'll play, but I believe he will play today. Mattelis Bennett is also questionable, still dealing with his ankle and shoulder injuries. Dante Hightower is also questionable with his knee issue. That actually held him out of last week's game, so it could be interesting to see what happens this week. As we stated earlier with the inactive predictions, Matt Slater is also listed as questionable with his foot injury.

Let's keep in mind last week New England sat Hightower like I just said and if he still wasn't 100% ready to go I wouldn't be surprised if he was inactive also watch the Brissette situation because I think he could end up being active I know obviously they have

Garoppolo and Brady but if they make the move and decide you know what they're up say 21-0 at the end of the half or it's getting ugly in the third quarter, they're probably going to put Brady on the bench and bring Garoppolo in. They did it last week in the entire fourth quarter against the Jets, so it would make sense to do that same thing. If you're going to do that and say something,

God forbid something happens to Garoppolo, the last thing you're going to want to do is bring Brady back into the game. So in that scenario, I think that they would have Brissette active just because it makes more sense to bring him into the game if, again, God forbid something happens to Garoppolo when he comes in for Brady. The last thing you want to do is bring Brady back in, especially after looking at the field. It doesn't look good. There's exposed seams, which really worries me, and it should worry all Patriots fans too because that makes for bad things happening. It could be an interesting day down in Miami.

The Dolphins injury report is also loaded up with some pretty good players. Jay Yagi is dealing with a shoulder issue. He had limited participation during practice this week. He's listed as questionable. I think he's going to play, but a shoulder injury for a running back, that affects him. And I know he's had three 200-yard games, and he's the key to their offense, and yada, yada, yada. But at the same time, I think the Patriots will key on him and slow him down, regardless if he's healthy or not. Jelani Jenkins, linebacker, he has a knee issue.

He didn't practice all week. He's listed as doubtful. Cornerback Byron Maxwell is also dealing with an ankle. He also didn't practice all week. He's also listed as doubtful. Spencer Pasinger, linebacker, he's dealing with a knee issue. He didn't practice on Tuesday. He had limited participation for the rest of the week.

Actually, he had full participation on Tuesday. He had limited participation for the rest of the week. Actually, he had full participation on Friday. He's also listed as questionable, so he's not a clear-cut guy to play either. Ryan Tannehill, quarterback, he has a knee injury. He is out. He didn't practice all week. He probably will not be back before the end of the season, even including the playoffs. I know they said that it wasn't torn, his ACL or his MCL, but it was severely sprained. and you really can't mess with that because a sprain can be as bad as a tear because it loosens up the ligament. So I really don't think it's a good idea for them to automatically

just throw Tannehill back in there just because they're in the playoffs. It doesn't make a lot of sense. And last but not least on the injury report for Miami, defensive end Mario Williams, he's been dealing with an ankle injury. He was a full participant in practice all week, so I 100% expect to see him play. But again, he was listed as questionable, and we have to bring that up to you guys. So if you see Mario Williams limping off the field, you'll know why, because he's been battling an ankle injury all week. But again, he did practice, so expect to see him out there. Before

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It's a great site. So, now, one of the things we've done all season is we've broken down. We've done this in two-day segments, but today we're going to do it in one because, well, that's just the way it works when you have holiday weeks. So the first thing we want to take a look at is the Patriots offense versus the Dolphins defense. I know typically we do it the other way around. Everyone's going to get all mad, but this is how we're doing it today.

Patriots offense has just been steadily productive all year long. 27.1 points per game, 385.6 total yards per game, which is ranked 5th, also ranked 5th in points. 268.8 passing yards per game, which is 4th, and 116.8 rushing yards per game, which is 8th. So they're in the top 10 in everything, top 5 in 3 of those 4 categories, which is excellent. The running game, once again last week, and the Jets have a pretty good run defense. It's one of the few things that they actually did okay with last week.

Patriots still rushed for over 100 yards total on them. So this is something where they are going to establish the run. It may not be with Blount. It may be with Deion Lewis and vice versa, but they are going to find a run. It may not be with Blount, it may be with Dion Lewis, and vice versa, but they are going to find a way to establish this running game, and that's the way you have to win in the playoffs when you have home field in a state that is cold as ice. So it's good for the Patriots that they actually have this ability now.

Dolphins' defense is giving up 23 points per game, which is 14th in the league. It's not too bad. It's not too bad. It's not good either. They're giving up 381.7 yards per game. That's terrible. They're 30th in the league. Their pass defense hasn't been too bad, 239.9 passing yards per game,

13th in the league. That has a lot to do, I believe, with their pass rush getting better again. Cameron Wake is back to what he once was. Mario Williams has been a little bit better this year. And the Domicon Sue was in there too. So they've got a pretty good defensive line, and they've done a good job with the pass rush this year. So that's why they're ranked 13th.

But they're still giving up 240 yards passing the game. And last but not least, actually it is close to least, they're giving up 141.8 rushing yards per game, which is 30th in the league. You know where the Patriots are going to look to damage this team today. They are going to run the ball. Period. Last season in this game, they attempted to run the ball,

but they didn't have the horses to get it done. Steven Jackson, God bless him. He was a great player in his prime. Last year, he was a stiff. There was no way he was going to be able to do anything against this team. Not to mention, the Patriots' offensive line was absolutely terrible. So, 2016, well, it's 2017 is the year, but the 2016 season has been completely different. As we just stated with the Patriots having the 8th ranked rushing game in football,

the Patriots are going to run, and they're going to have success doing it, and then they're going to start hitting them with play action, and then once they start to drop their safeties back, they'll start hitting them with some spread stuff, and then once they try to stop that, no matter what the Patriots do today, or the Dolphins do today defensively, New England is going to have an answer for, and it all stems from the running game. If you can't stop the run, eventually it's going to trickle down to everything else that you try to do.

And right now, Miami can't stop the run, regardless of the fact that they're 10-5. That's a major problem for their team and a major hole. And when I look into their stats and I look into their numbers and just get an idea of what they've done this year, I'm truly amazed that they're 10-5. That's a pretty amazing record considering how, well, just to be blunt, how bad they've been statistically all season long. So, you know, the Dolphins, if they can't stop the run today, they're probably going to lose this game by three touchdowns. We're going to get to our predicted score later,

but you can kind of get an idea what path I'm going down here. I do think the Patriots are going to have success running the ball today, and I think the Dolphins' defense is going to be in for a long day. One of the reasons for the Dolphins' record is their schedule. They've beaten Cleveland. They've beaten Pittsburgh, which was a good win for them, but they beat them without Ben Roethlisberger. They beat the Bills. They beat the Jets. They beat the Chargers. They beat the Rams.

They beat the 49ers. They beat the Cardinals. They beat the Jets again, and they beat the Bills. Now, of all those teams, yes, the Steelers are a good team. But when Ben Roethlisberger goes down with a knee injury, it's pretty difficult for them to be able to win that game. In other games where the Dolphins have faced teams that are pretty good, they lost to the Seahawks. Granted, they only lost by two, but they still lost. They lost to the Patriots by a touchdown.

They lost to the Bengals back earlier in the season when the Bengals were struggling. The Bengals did not have a good year this year, but they manhandled the Dolphins. They lost to the Titans, which the Titans have been a pretty good team this year, but if you think about Tennessee, what's been their calling card? Running the ball. They ran the ball on the Dolphins, and they won 30-17, so they won pretty handily. The Ravens also destroyed the Dolphins 38-6. The Ravens are a halfway decent team.

Halfway decent teams tend to have success against Miami. So, you know, they, yeah, they're 10-5. There's no question about it. You can't take that away from them. But at the same time, they haven't beaten anybody. If they'd beaten the Steelers with Roethlisberger, I'd be singing a different tune. But they haven't beaten anybody. So that way when you look at these stats and you get an idea like, wait a minute, how come the Dolphins are 10-5?

Well, they're 10-5 because their schedule is a joke. So let's take a look at their offense. You can think about who they faced. They're scoring 23.3 points per game. Not bad. Middle of the pack. Literally middle of the pack. They're ranked 16th. 336.3 yards per game, which is 22nd in the NFL. That's poor.

219.7 passing yards per game. That's not poor. That's disgusting. That's 26th in the NFL. Today's NFL, you just can't get it done with that. And they're running for 116.6 rushing yards per game. Like I said, Jay Yagi's been great this year. They're ranked 9th in the NFL.

They're still ranked behind the Patriots in their rushing game. You may hear all these on ESPN and all these other sites and all these other things talking about how great he's been and how great the Dolphins' run game's been. But when it comes down to it, the Patriots have been better at that too. So they have them everywhere. As far as the Patriots' defense is concerned, obviously their calling card all year has been points per game allowed,

which is the greatest calling card you can have as a defense, is not allowing teams to score. They're giving up 15.7 points per game, which is first in the league. As far as passing yards, they're giving up 320. Oh, total yards, I'm sorry. Total yards, they're giving up 329.5, which they've moved into the top 10 now. They're eighth, which is excellent,

considering where they were just a month ago. They're giving up 240.1 passing yards per game, which is 14th in the league, which is pretty good. I mean, they're in the top half, and let's not forget that they're not going to have to deal with Ryan Tannehill this week. They're dealing with the backup, Matt Moore. And I know Moore has actually been okay.

Okay is the word. He's 31-53 for 516 yards, 58.5% completion percentage, six touchdowns and two picks in the two games he's played in, and he has a rating of 113.4. So he's been pretty good in the games that he's played in, but let's, again, not forget the level of competition that he's facing is not the level of competition he's going to be facing today. So things are going to change. Things change big time when you're not facing the cardinals the jets or the bills uh three very disappointing teams uh patriots defense is also

allowing just 89.5 rushing yards per game which is third in the league so again ayaji's banged up patriots run defense has been awesome all year so it's pretty obvious that they're going to key on him. He's going to be the, that's the guy. They're going to stop the running game and make Matt Moore beat them. And if Matt Moore is the one who has to beat this 2016 Patriots defense, I don't see it happening. I just, I don't see him putting up big numbers against them. I know Jarvis Landry has been very good against New England.

They need to try to take him away today. He's just tough. I like Landry as a receiver. I like the way he plays. He's one of those type of kids that he's going to fight for every inch, every down, and he's into it, and he gets his teammates going too. He's got 85 catches for 1,060 yards and three touchdowns a season, so he's been excellent.

And, again, he's always given the Patriots trouble, so they've got to make sure that they lock him down today, put Malcolm Butler on him and see if you can just kind of keep him off the board a little bit. But overall, I think statistically the Patriots are considerably better than the Dolphins. I know that Ryan Tannehill has not been the greatest quarterback in the world, but he has had some success against the Patriots, so that's not really any addition by subtraction when it comes to that scenario. I know Matt Moore is a good backup, but I think the Patriots will be able to handle him today, and I do think the Patriots will take away the run.

I don't think the Dolphins are going to be able to stop the run. I do think they might be able to get a little bit of a pass rush on Brady if New England decides to come out and throw the ball, but that's not going to happen. They're going to come out and try to establish the run right away, and they're going to have success with it and then get a little play action going, run some draws, run some screens. Basically do everything you can to keep Tom Brady off his back

and allow the running game and the offensive line and the tight ends to dictate today's game in the defense. And if they do those things, they're going to win. I do believe they will do those things. So for a predicted score, I think it's going to be a blowout. I don't think this is going to be a close game today. I'm going to say New England 34 and Miami 13. I just don't think that this is a good matchup for the Dolphins. Again, they haven't faced anybody good all year.

The Patriots have been beating. They've beat up some bad teams, no question about it. But New England has also had success against good opponents and common opponents this year, including Baltimore, which is one game you really look at. The Patriots played well against Baltimore and picked up a win. Baltimore destroyed Miami. So I know common opponents sometimes people look at and say,

well, they don't match up the same, this and that. But when it comes down to it, a lot of times that common opponent does make sense. That's why the tiebreaker is based off of it. So I don't think that the Dolphins have seen anybody like the Patriots this year. They got the Seahawks in week one when Russell Wilson got hurt, and the Seahawks still won the game too. So again, I'm going to say New England 34, Miami 13. I don't think Matt Moore and the crew are going to be able to get it done today for the Dolphins. And I think the Patriots are going to finish 14-2, wrap up home field in the East, and get this thing going.

So we'll see what happens. Excuse me, not the East, the AFC. They've already wrapped up the AFC East. That seems like a thing that they do pretty early every single year. In fact, I know it's what they do early every year. That streak's incredible. Let's see how long that continues for. So it's the last week of the NFL regular season.

It's amazing. It's week 17 already. Can you guys believe this? So your team may be facing a must-win today, or they're already in the postseason, or they're out. Sorry for you guys that are listening that your team's out. It kind of stinks. But if you're a football fan, I'm sure you're still watching. Either way, SeatGeek is the easiest way to find tickets

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Here at Locked On Patriots, we are all about getting Patriots fans the most info you need to be the most in-the-know Patriots fan. Again, I'm your host Chris Cimino of Scout.com. Thanks again for joining us and enjoy the game, Patriots fans. Is democracy in danger or decline? Condoleezza Rice, William Galston, and Carlos Gutierrez and others take on this question in the fall edition of The Catalyst, a journal of ideas from the Bush Institute. Surveys show Americans place less trust in institutions like the media and business. Others contend America has faced far more challenging periods and emerged strong. Leading policymakers, Bush Institute experts, and respected journalists take on this debate.

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