Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 12/18/25- Breakdown & Prediction: Patriots vs. Broncos

Episode Date: December 18, 2016

Chris Simoneau of Scout.com breaks down the Patriots and the Broncos showdown in Denver today. #patriots Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. Good afternoon. I'm Chris Simino, Patriotsinsideofascout.com, and also your host of Locked On Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Sunday. Today is game day. The Patriots take on the Broncos in a game that, we've talked a lot about this, a game that I think is going to decide who does have home field advantage.

It's not for the Broncos because right now Broncos, they're really just fighting to get to the playoffs. But for the Patriots, if they can pull this one off, the Raiders and the Chiefs got some serious schedule woes going down the final stretch here. So I do think if New England was to pull this off, not only would it be a huge win to pull it off in Denver, but I also think it would go a big way towards them clinching. Sorry to not have provided any shows for you guys this week. Sometimes in life we have things that come up that take priority, and unfortunately the podcast had to take a back seat this week

But things are good to go now So I am back and we are back here on Locked On Patriots So again my apologies for the hiatus for the last five days After the terrific win over the Baltimore Ravens Trust me I had plenty to say about it But sometimes again life pulls you away, and that was what my situation was, so we are good to go. Today we're going to go over everything that we typically would go over for our Thursday and Friday show.

We're not going to get into the news and notes. We just don't have time for it today. What we're going to go through is, first, we're going to take a look at the Patriots' offense versus the Ravens' defense, and then we to take a look at the Patriots offense versus the Ravens, I'm sorry, versus the Broncos defense, and then we'll flip it. We'll take a look at the Patriots offense versus the Broncos defense, which I think is the real battle in this game, which is going to decide what happens at 415 or 425, whatever the kickoff is.

So we're going to get to that. So, again, not too much in the news today. We don't have time for it. Before we do get started as far as the matchups, I just want all my listeners to know that I can be found on Twitter under the handle Chris underscore Seminole. If you have any questions for the show, be it about the Patriots, myself, Patriots Insider, or if you're looking to advertise here on Locked On Patriots,

you can email me directly at chrissim at USC at yahoo.com. That's chrissim, USC at yahoo.com. Maybe I can say it right this time. So again, chrissim, USC at yahoo.com. I know that there were some issues at Yahoo this week as far as hacking, but my email is still good. I went ahead and took care of my situation, so you can email me there. Just be aware that I may change that going forward,

but for now we'll keep it at the Yahoo address. If you are a member of Patriots Insider on Scout.com, you can contact me directly on the site via message, and that's just a couple ways you can get a hold of me. I think the best way is through Twitter, but again, if you want to do it through Facebook, Twitter, or through scout.com, whatever works for you, feel free to hit me up. So we're talking about the Patriots defense versus the Broncos offense. So Patriots defense, as

we've talked about at length, they've done good in the yardage, actually in the points department, only giving up 17.7 points per game, the third in the league. The yardage has improved, though. They've only given up 338.1 yards per league. They've actually jumped up to 10th. Being in the top 10 in the league, that's where you want to be. The passing yards still need some work.

They're 247.8 yards per game, but they're in the top half of the league now. They're 15th, so they're moving up on that department too. Rush yards, they're very good. They only give up 90.2 yards per game, 6th in the league. The Broncos offensively have not been very good this year. It's just one of those things when you lose a guy like Manning and you lose a guy like Osweiler, who I know has struggled in Houston, but he knew the system in Denver,

and he would have been better than what they have. You're going to have a drop-off. So they're averaging 22.8 points per game, 16th in the league. They move the ball a little bit, but not enough, 328.1 yards per game, which is good for 25th in the league. Passing-wise, they're at 234.2 yards per game, 19th in the league, and this is where the main problem comes because this is what their bread and butter was last year. They're rushing yards, only 93.8 yards per game, 19th in the league, and this is where the main problem comes because this is what their bread and butter was last year.

Their rushing yards, only 93.8 yards per game, 27th in the league. They lost C.J. Anderson, so that's a big hit for them, and that's what I want to talk about heading into today's game. So people talk about how the fact that Rob Gronkowski has been a big factor against the Broncos, and we'll get into that when we go into the Patriots' offense. But for the Broncos, C.J. Anderson has been huge against the Patriots. So to not have him running the ball, I think, is going to have a major effect on today's game. Another area where the Broncos hurt the Patriots was with their tight end.

They had Owen Daniels, who scorched Jamie Collins twice, and we've actually talked about that at length this season because of Collins' trade. So, you know, they have hurt the Patriots in specific areas, be it with the running game and with their tight ends, and they're not equipped like that this year. They're not the same type of offense. So they do still have their great outside guys,

Emmanuel Sanders and Demarius Thomas. I expect them to both probably have good games. Sanders has always given the Patriots a lot of trouble, and Demarius Thomas, he's been coming on lately playing a little bit better, so I expect them to give the Patriots some trouble today. But because of the fact that the Broncos' running attack isn't quite what it once was, Devontae Booker has been playing a little bit better. But again, I don't think that they're going to be able to run in the wing on today. And the C.J. Anderson loss is huge. So I think the Patriots defensively do have the advantage.

Like I said, they've jumped now into the top 10 in yardage allowed per game with 338.1. They give up some passing yards, so Simeon should have some success today through the year. But they have had their pass rush going a little bit lately too, and they've done a good job getting turnovers, jumping up into the top 10 of the league now in plus minus. So that's big. Again, Denver struggled to run. Patriots have shut down the run, so New England should have the advantage in that department.

So I think overall this is one of the few times where I look at the Patriots' defense going into Denver and say, I think they can shut these guys down. I do. I think they can really slow Denver down and not give up a lot of points because this Broncos offense, although it does have some explosive players, I don't think they were able to put it all together against the type of defense the Patriots run. So I'm going to say the Broncos are going to score 16 points.

They're going to score 16 points against the Patriots on Sunday, today, at 4-15, 4-25. I'm not really sure. I have to take a look at that. I forget what time the game starts. Great job on my part, huh? It happens. So I do think that the Patriots will give up a couple big plays here and there. Like I said, Emmanuel Sanchez, he's always given them a lot of trouble.

So he's going to be the guy that does a little bit to me. Thomas will make a couple plays. Simeon can throw the ball, too. I do like him as a player. He's young. But, again, it's going to be very, very difficult for Denver to score on the Patriots today because the Patriots' defense, you know, the Patriots defense, they've done a good job of keeping everything in front of them.

And now all of a sudden they're starting to get the pass rush going because they're not blitzing a lot, but they're sending four different guys every time, be it at the corner, safety, and the linemen, guys drop. And it's just different guys every time. And it's some creative stuff that they're doing that they did during their early super bowl runs when they had romeo cornell this is the same kind of stuff that they ran back then where they would send a different guy every time and again it was only a four-man rush but if you don't know where the rush is coming from and you can be creative in coverages

and you have the athletes to do it it's very difficult to deal with. I think the Patriots have those athletes right now. They went out and picked up and signed a bunch of guys that were first-round picks, second-round picks that just didn't work out, and they're just trying to see which ones have worked out and which ones work for them, and they're making it work with a lot of them. So kudos to the New England Patriots on that. So, again, I think the Broncos are going to score 16 points today. That's my predicted output for them.

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So now it's time to discuss the Patriots offense versus the very dynamic and talented Denver Broncos defense. So Patriots are averaging 26.8 points per game, which is fifth in the league, 395.8 yards per game, fourth in the league, 280.3 through the air, which is fifth in the league 395.8 yards per game fourth in the league 280.3 through the air which is also fourth in this is my favorite stat 115.5 yards per game on the ground if seventh in the nfl and rushing this season the broncos like i said they are excellent on defense only giving up 18.6 yards per game which is good for sixth in the league they only give up 310.7 yards per game, which is third in the league. That's excellent. Here's where they really stand out.

183.5 yards allowed through the air, first in the NFL, and that's by a lot. That's impressive. Here's where they don't stand out. 127.2 rushing yards allowed per game, 29th in the league. So I think you guys might be able to figure out where I'm going with this. So you've got a team like New England. So the Patriots are known to say, you can't stop the run? Okay, we are going to punch you in the face.

We're going to come out and run on you. Look at what they did to Indianapolis back when Indianapolis thought they had a chance to go to the Super Bowl when Randy Luck first came on the scene, and now look where they are. I do think New England will be able to throw a little bit, but why not try to run against a team that's giving up a ton of yardage? It'd be crazy for the Patriots not to run today. So, LeGarrette Blount is going to be the key to today's game. I do think that James Devlin, who's been excellent as far as his lead blocking,

is going to play a big part too. Look for LeGarrette Blount to not only break the 100-yard mark today, I think he might run for about 150. The Broncos, they are susceptible to it in New England. This is how they get these guys. This is how you do it. In order to beat Denver on the road, you have to run the ball and get points through touchdowns running the ball.

Let Brady be Brady in play action. Let him make a few plays. But if you just start snapping the ball and shotgun and just try to let him throw it, it's not going to work. It is not going to work. Von Miller eventually is going to start getting to him. They're going to start struggling with that pass rush because the Broncos have the best pass rush in football.

But when you have the best pass rush, sometimes your kryptonite is the run, and that is exactly what's going on with Denver. New England needs to get out and block these guys and run, and I think guys and run. And I think that they will. I just, I'd be shocked if the game plan wasn't to run the ball at least 35 times today. So I think the Patriots are going to have a lot of success on the ground. I think that their run blocking has been excellent.

Watching the All-22, you know, Shaq Mason has been great. Joe Tooney's been great. You know, two guys that are really young. You know Shaq Mason has been great. Joe Tooney's been great. Two guys that are really young. Andrews has been great. Nate Solda's one of the best run blockers in the league. And Marcus Cannon got his new contract for a reason. He's been really good too. So I like what I'm seeing. Martellus Bennett's an awesome run blocker. And again, like I said, James Devlin has been awesome. So they have the guys to do it. And if they do it right, then they can start hitting some play-action stuff,

maybe down the field a little bit, Malcolm Mitchell, get some of the shorter stuff going with Edelman, but that gives them more dynamic ability to be able to do different things if they can run the ball like I think they can. So, again, LeGarrette Blount tomorrow is going to be the key to the game, not just Blount, but Blount, Devlin, and the offensive line getting out and hammering these guys who give up the run. So they've got to go out and make the plays. So I think the Patriots' offense will be able to make some plays

on the Denver defense. And, again, I think the Denver defense, if the Patriots go in foolishly with the idea that they can throw the whole time, I think that they'll make enough plays and they could upset New England if the Patriots don't have the proper game plan. So again, I do like the Patriots to win the game and score more points. I think that they'll score 24 points. That's my predicted number today. If they run the ball. If they decide to throw it too much,

I think they could be in trouble. But I'm not going to go down that road. So today's predicted score, the New England Patriots 24, the Denver Broncos 16. I think the Patriots are going to run for about 165 yards and a couple touchdowns on the ground, and I think Brady will make some plays through the year through play action, and that's how they'll get the job done. Trevor Simeon will probably have a decent day, but it won't be enough. The defense will make enough plays to keep Denver at bay

and keep them kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, and that's how they'll get it done. So, again, I'd like the Patriots today to win the game 24-16. I think that they're just a little bit better equipped right now, and they're a little bit better of a team than Denver was last season, when Denver was a little bit better than New England going into this point. And again, I think the main reason is because the Patriots have a strong running game, Denver doesn't, and Denver has a weak running defense, and the Patriots have a very strong running defense, so this works out in their favor. So again, my predicted score for today's game, winning 124, Denver 16.

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after you made your first purchase. Again, download the Seat Geek app and enter promo code LOPatriots today. So I want to thank you guys for joining us for this Sunday afternoon pregame edition of Locked On Patriots. Again, welcome back. Sorry we've been gone for the week, but it's been a tough one. But we are back and ready to go. So the Patriots and the Broncos today, New England trying to up their record to 12-2 and see if they can lock things down here in the AFC and get this bye squared away and hopefully lock up home field.

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