Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 2/15/17- Breaking Down the Patriots Free Agent Situation

Episode Date: February 16, 2017

Chris Simoneau, Patriots Insider for Scout.com, goes through every Patriots free agent and gives his prediction on what the Patriots will do- sign him or let him walk. #patriots #2017nflfreeagency Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

That's for my crazy day. My packed commute. All those unread emails in my inbox. But I'm getting stronger, faster, and pushing myself further every day. I don't care if I'm not like everyone else. This punching bag is the best way to end my day. Fearless is knowing yoga isn't your style. That's the power of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program.

Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. Good evening, I'm Chris Simino, Patriots Inside of a Scout.com, and also your host of Locked On Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Wednesday, February 15th, 2017. Today we are officially moving on to the 2017 offseason. We're going to focus on the upcoming free agents on the Patriots roster. New England does enter the offseason with over $67 million in cap space, but let's not forget about the draft and some of the other things that account for the cap,

which would bring them right down to around $57 million, which is still a lot to work with when all is said and done, but it's still a lot of money to be sitting on as a team that has won two Super Bowls in the last three seasons, but there's much work to do. New England is in a position to take care of their own, which isn't always a given, and maybe load up on some veteran gambles like they love to do, many of whom will be cut, but they'll always find the gem or two in that mix. Tomorrow, we'll start to take a look at the offensive free agents around the NFL, but we have to examine who needs to be signed and who should be released and not really

looked at on their roster currently first. So let's get your popcorn out. I love this stuff. So this should be a fun show. I love watching the roster getting built. To me, it's as fun as the games. It's the most interesting part of the season, seeing what teams do, watching what the Patriots do because you know they're going to build a good roster.

They do it every single year, and they do it with players that aren't necessarily the highest priced, or they always find steals out there, so this should be fun to watch. Again, I love it, so you should enjoy tonight's show. Before we do get started, I just want my listeners to know that I can be found on Twitter under the handle Chris underscore Simono, C-H-R-I-S underscore S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U, and if you have any questions for the show, be it about the Patriots, myself, Patriots Insider, or if you're looking to advertise here on Locked On Patriots you can email me directly at

simono.christopher5 at gmail.com that's S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U dot C-H-R-I-S-T-O-P-H-E-R the number 5 at gmail.com if you are a member of Patriots Insider on scout.com

you can contact me directly on the site via message. So, and either way, I'm pretty easy to get a hold of. So if you need to get in touch with me, hit me up on Twitter, email, or through scout.com. Okay, enough of that. Let's get to the Patriots free agents and potential, uh, contract snafus. If I could pick a word, it's kind of a strange word to pick, but basically what I'm saying is guys that might get cut. And there's one major guy on here that I think is probably going to get cut,

but they'll probably resign, so we'll get into that. So the first guy I want to talk about, he is not a free agent. It's Danny Amendola. He's technically not a free agent because he's on the contract for 2017, but there is no way they're going to pay Amendola $7,791,000 when they can cut or trade him before June 2nd and save $6.5 million. It's only a cap hit of $1.5 million, money that they can recoup in other areas with other players with contract renegotiations and things of $1.5 million, money that they can recoup in other areas with other players,

with contract renegotiations and things of that nature. Amendola is a good player, but they can't justify allotting $7 million in cap space to him. He could end up leaving, but I see Amendola getting cut and then returning on a new, considerably cheaper deal. Amendola, he has been good in big spots. I mean, he had a big touchdown in the Super Bowl that made it 28-18. He also had the two-point conversion to tie the game up. He had big catches in overtime. I mean, he's a good player.

But for $7 million a year, they're just not going to pay him that. There's no way. But, you know, he's been big in good spots. But he's smart enough to know that he fits in this offense. And going somewhere else might result in him getting cut. So it might make more sense for him to, you know, take the pill here and know that he's not going to get paid $7 million, get cut, and then come back. So my prediction for Danny Amendola is I expect him to return on maybe, you know,

say a two-year, $5 million deal, you know, $5.5 million, give him $4 million guaranteed, so, you know, you take care of the guy a little bit too, but that's what I expect to see for Amendola, or he'll be gone, but I don't think that's going to happen, because, again, he's not exactly a great fit in every offense, and he's been in this offense with Josh McDaniels for a long time now because when McDaniels went to St. Louis, Amandola played in this too. So it's a good offense for him, and I think he likes working with Brady and Edelman and the rest of the crew there. So, again, I think he's going to return on either a one-year,

$2.5 million deal or a two-year, $5 million deal. Second guy on offense, Sebastian Vollmer, unrestricted free agent. Vollmer's been battling injury issues for the last few years, and his body is breaking down. But when he does play, he's still very effective. The problem, Marcus Cannon stole his job, and he also received a new contract that pretty much locks him into the starting right tackle for the foreseeable future.

If Vollmer's willing to take a team-friendly deal and be a backup, then he might be back, but I don't see that happening. Vollmer is most likely going to move on to a team that offers him a starting position, or he may simply retire due to all the injuries that he's dealt with. He's a huge man, and a lot of times these guys have it harder when they age, so giving it up before something really bad happens might be the best bet. Vollmer seems like a smart guy. I'm sure he saved his money. He's made decent money throughout his career with New England. I just don't know if it makes sense for him to even come back at all, but my prediction

is he moves on and plays one or two more years for another franchise. Like I said, he'll get an opportunity to start. He may stay in the division just because he knows it and he's been here. Maybe Miami takes a look at him, maybe the Jets, maybe the Bills, who knows. But I do see Vollmer moving on to another franchise, getting a possible starting job somewhere else for a couple years before he hangs it up, or he may just hang it up now because, again, he is a monstrous man and his body is breaking down, and I think it's time to hang it up.

But we'll see. Next on the list, LeGarrette Blount, unrestricted free agent. Blount's coming off the best year of his career. Almost 1,200 yards and 18 touchdowns in the regular season, which is pretty amazing. But at the age of 30, questions about his character after multiple issues in college and the pros. It seems that Blount is either going to be a patriot

or he's going to be out of the league. Is he willing to take a similar offer last year, $1 million, pretty much after his bonus? And if he does, then I guarantee you they're going to bring him back. But if someone does decide to gamble on him, he's going to take the money and run, which he should because his playing days are closer to the end than they are to the start. My prediction for Blount, I think he's going to re-sign with New England.

I'm going to say that they give him a little bit of a bump, say one year, one and a half million because they do have some cap space to work with and it's nice to reward these guys when they've done it. I also think maybe they'll give him a little bit more of a raise too, but not up front, more of a slight raise to hit maybe the $2 million mark to maybe $2.5 million mark if he hits incentives. But I wouldn't go crazy. I wouldn't go above $2.5 million total in incentives because there's other guys out there, which we'll get into tomorrow, like Eddie Lacy, and we'll talk about that later. But I think Blount will re-sign with New England.

The honest-to-God truth is I think he's going to re-sign there because I don't think anybody else is going to want him. Blount kind of wore out his welcome in the league when he did what he did with Pittsburgh. I like Blount. If he hears this, I'm not knocking your butt. I don't think you're a bad guy. I actually think you're a great guy who got frustrated

and you're an emotional dude, and that's what happens sometimes. But unfortunately, you get a lot of crabby owners and GMs around the league who think that players should adhere to a robotic lifestyle and not have occasional moments of losing it like Blount did have. He's had two moments. He punched a guy in the face, and then he walked off the field. That's what he's done. It is what it is.

One time he was in college. He apologized profusely for it. He really did pay the price for it, and he did a great job, I thought, of rehabbing himself, his image. But then the thing that happened in Pittsburgh was really a bad look. So I hope they bring him back. I think that they will, but then the thing that happened in Pittsburgh was really a bad look. So I hope they bring him back. I think that they will, but we'll see. It depends on if somebody else offers him money.

Next guy up, Michael Floyd, unrestricted free agent. Floyd is another talented player that most likely won't have a lot of GMs knocking on his door after his disturbing DUI last season that led the Cardinals to cut him. He did a good job of trying to redeem himself with the Patriots, and he did have some impressive moments. So it would make sense for New England to try to bring him back on a team-friendly deal that protects them if he has a relapse. Floyd has already stated that he wants to stay in New England. He really likes it here. So he's another guy that the only way he really leaves is if someone offers him a deal he can't refuse. And in the the NFL you never know with

wide receivers that tends to happen but with his issues I don't see anyone blowing him away with a contract and similar with Blount the Patriots could make this deal mainly off of incentives so if he does perform well he can get paid in accordance with what he's doing you know and that probably makes the most sense my prediction for Michael Floyd is very simple. I think the Patriots are going to sign him to a one-year, maybe right around $3 million, and he'll stick it out here. I think the $3 million will actually be the total amount possible with incentives. Next on the list, Martellus Bennett, also an unrestricted free agent.

Bennett's going to command a minimum of $9 million per year, I believe. And I just don't see the Patriots extending themselves out to pay that much per year to a player that turns 30 before the next season begins. If they can work with him and he takes maybe $20 million guaranteed over three years or somewhere around that range and they go to the bonus guaranteed money

route, they'll probably have a good chance to resign him. But they never go that route, especially with a guy that's only been here for one season. But again, his value to the offense is unquestionable as he adds a dimension they need because of the type of offense that they run, but they never overextend themselves if a player wants more than they deem his worth to be.

So that is what this is going to come down to. So my prediction in the Bennett situation, for some reason, I don't know why, I just get the feeling the Patriots want to keep him around. I don't think the leakage earlier in the season of them saying that they want to re-sign him, I don't think that was bull crap. I think that was real.

I think that was them basically leaking it out to his agent saying, let's talk after the season's over. I just think that they're going to keep him around. And I get the feeling they are going to go that guaranteed money route to get the deal done. So I'm going to go out on a limb here and say they re-sign Martellus Bennett. Bennett takes a Randy Moss type deal. Not as much per year, but similar as far as what he's going to get. So I think he's going to get three years, $21 million with 18 guaranteed.

So, you know, he's going to take $7 million, which is $2 million off of what I thought he was going to, what I say he'll command, but with 18 of it being guaranteed, that's a big difference over those three years. If you're getting $6 million a year, that's, that's huge. And that will bring him up to the age of 32, going into 33. And then you get yourself, then you let him go. And then you just let him walk. Or if you don. Or if he takes less money and he's still a viable guy, then you keep him around still. But Bennett, I think if they can get him on three years, $21 million, $18

million guaranteed and get him to do something close to that, I think that's going to be something that could happen. Next guy up, Brandon Bolden, unrestricted free agent. Brandon Bolden provides zero value whatsoever in the offensive game plan. Whatsoever. He provides zero on offense.

He is Matthew Slater. He is no different than Matthew Slater, except he's not as good on special teams as Slater. Bolden is a good special teamer. Don't get me wrong. He's good. He makes plays. But the only other team in the NFL that would possibly sign him

is a team that's looking to improve their special teams which that happens, there are teams out there that are rebuilding and they're in the position where they're just not that good and they will pick up special teams guys but I don't think Bolden's going anywhere they'll sign him to a probably close to league minimum and he might make the team, he might not so my prediction on Bolden is a one-year league minimum type deal,

and he'll probably get cut before the season begins because they will bring in some new blood because there's only so many spots they can keep for certain special teams guys, and right now they have a lot of guys that I think are allotted a spot that probably shouldn't embolden as one. Next, last but not least for the offensive free agents, James Devlin, who's an unrestricted free agent. The only way James Devlin leaves is if the Patriots go to him and tell him to leave. He's going to take what they offer him.

He has been a Patriot-made guy. They made his career i mean there's not many fullbacks still in the nfl and the ones that are still out there they show loyalty to the teams that they're with uh so i think devlin will be back a very very team-friendly deal he'll probably take the exact same amount of money that he took this season which i don't have the figure off the top of my head because I don't have the page up sorry but I do think Devlin will be back on a one maybe two year deal so let's take a minute to tell you about one of our sponsors Patriots Insider on scout.com provides daily news video from NFL.com

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Alright, so, enoughofscout.com Let's move on to the Patriots Free Agents of Defense Because we've got something to talk about here Because there's some guys that are major, major, major pieces that are available. First on the list, Dante Hightower. I think he's the MVP of the defense. Personally, I think what you have to do with him, he's going to want about $12.5 million a year.

He's going to want a similar contract that Jamie Collins signed out with Cleveland. The thing is, Jamie Collins didn't earn that contract. I believe that Dante Hightower has. A lot of people don't think that he should be earning as much as Luke Kuechly, but the thing is, you've got to understand is that the money goes up every year. So Kuechly got his contract before Hightower was getting his. That's the only reason why Hightower was going to make the same amount of money. Another thing the Patriots could do is just go ahead and franchise him. And if he doesn't, if they realize that they're not going to be able to re-sign him, I would absolutely positively franchise him.

And if you can't get him re-signed next year, franchise him again. Do what they did with Kirk Cousins down in Washington or what they're about to do with Kirk Cousins in Washington because Hightower is way too important to let go. You've seen in Super Bowl 51, he made the play that gave the Patriots a chance to get back into the game and actually win the game. In Super Bowl 49, he made plays.

He had to tackle on Skittles down at the three-yard line. That was a huge play, huge play. So you can't afford to let Hightower go. And I know he's had some injury issues. It doesn't matter. He needs to be here. They have the money to make it work. It's time to get him done.

So get that contract done. My prediction for the Hightower deal, I hate to say it, I think they're going to go ahead and stick the franchise tag on him. So that's my prediction. Dante Hightower gets the franchise tag, plays next season under it, and we'll see what happens from there. Logan Ryan, unrestricted free agent. Ryan's going to command money on the open market. He's a good player. He had a good Super Bowl. He had a good playoff run. He has his ups and downs. There's no question about it, but quality corners are

hard to find, and I know Ryan, because of his ability to play man, he's going to be a hot commodity, and I think the Patriots are going to have to fight to re-sign him. My prediction is they do do it, though. I think they're going to get him done. I think the guys that they want to make sure that they keep are Hightower, Logan Ryan, and Malcolm Butler, so there you go, cats out of the bag. But as far as high, big-time, big-money contracts, those are the three that I think they're going to want to keep. So if they can get Ryan to sign maybe, you know, go four years, $40 million, you know, I think that's something that would be worth doing, and I think they'd be able to keep him around. Next guy up, Malcolm Butler, who's a restricted free agent.

Malcolm Butler, again, these are their starting two corners, so they need to make sure that they get these things done. Butler's going to demand big money. He's going to be looking at about $13 million a year, and I think you pay him at this point. I think you've got to pay him. Yeah, I know Hightower and Ryan and Butler, between the three of them, you're looking at about $32 million. But again, they've got $57 million to play with

after they're done with everything as far as the draft. And that's not even, they technically have 67, but they have 57 to play with as far as their free agents and things of that nature. And I know if you put 60% of it into three or four players, it's probably going to, you know, handcuff you a little bit. But you eventually have to pay some of these guys. So I think the best way to do this is if you don't want Hightower to take up that much cap space, maybe try to get him to take a deal that's got, again, more guaranteed money in it.

Logan Ryan, you can do the same thing. And Malcolm Butler, I wouldn't do that with him. I would just give him maybe $13 million a year and say, hey, we'll take care of you now. So that's what I see happening. And my prediction is Ryan gets re-signed, say, for years, $40 million. Malcolm Butler, I think, is going to get about five years and about $70 million, right around there, which is a good deal for a top-five corner. That's a good deal. And if they can get him to agree to that and give him maybe, again, a little bit more guaranteed money, or if they don't go guaranteed money,

maybe find a way to maybe give him some incentives so he can make even more money than what he's getting, that might be another route to go. But I think these three have to get re-signed, and my prediction is all three will be re-signed. Next up, Trevor Riley, more of a special teams guy. He's a restricted free agent. I don't see them

really extending themselves to get that done I think Riley will probably be on another team Jabal Sheard unrestricted free agent another guy that before going into the season people think how to get him signed well I don't think it's going to happen so Sheard didn't have that great of a season he kind of came on a little bit towards the end, but again, he's in the doghouse for a little while, and I think that they probably look at him and say we can replace him in the draft. So Jabal Shihad, unrestricted free agent. Somebody's going to come and offer him big money, and it's not going to be the Patriots. That's my prediction. So I think Shihad's going to move on. Daron Harmon, safety. He's an unrestricted free agent. I get the feeling they're going to work

something out with Harmon. He's a good player. He provides good depth. I know they like to use three safeties at times, and he's one of the guys that allows them to do that. So again, Harmon is a Patriot guy. They drafted him. They took a gamble on him, and I know that he doesn't... These guys don't forget that. You know, certain players, people don't think, oh, it's no big deal. They don't really think about that type of stuff, but they do harman being a second round pick and kidding me he was blown away by it i'm sure and that's something that i think he'll maybe give back a little bit as far as um not making quite as much money as he would demand on the open market but he'll get some guaranteed money that the patriots will give them because of his

willingness to stick around and not take top dollars. So my prediction is Harmon resigns in maybe a three- or four-year deal, and he sticks around. Next guy up, Arquevious Mingo. I'm sure he'll go out and test the market. He's not going to get much because he's not really good. So Mingo, unrestricted. We'll see.

I think if they keep him, it'll be one of those situations where they have to offer him league minimum, maybe just a little bit above, bring him in as a training camp body, see what he does, if he contributes on special teams. With that speed and that ability, that's why he's stuck on the team this season. But we'll see. I think that somebody might try to see what they can do with him. I wouldn't be surprised if a team came in and offered him too much money because they think, well, we can make him into a pass rushing specialist,

but we'll see. My prediction for Mingo is that somebody does. Somebody goes dumb and they come in and they offer him about $6 million a year. Somebody like San Diego or something like that. And who knows, maybe there'll be a coach that can get to him and figure out when and how to deploy him as just strictly a pass rusher. But that's my prediction. Somebody takes the bait and signs Mingo to too much money. Next man up, Chris Long, unrestricted free agent. Chris Long said that he would sign with the Patriots for a dollar last year. He's also been stating that this is the toughest team he's ever played on,

things of that nature, and he knows that he's at the end of his career. Chris Long is going to stay with the Patriots. That's my prediction. They're going to sign him to a one-year deal. He's going to probably take close to the league minimum. But, again, there will be incentives in there, and he's going to provide good depth in the pass rush. That's what he was this year.

He didn't make a ton of plays, but he provided depth when they needed him in the pass rush, and that was good for the Patriots, and the relationship was good, so I think he's going to be back. Next on the list is a guy who I think is almost as important as the first three I was talking about, a defensive tackle, Alan Branch, an unrestricted free agent. Now Branch is another one where he had the DUI, and Buffalo shipped him out and said, see you later. They didn't give him a chance. And the Patriots did. They came and, you know, they do that a lot with these guys.

And people think that, you know, the Patriot way, and that's a bunch of crap and this and that. It's not just about that. It's about having a clean slate and they're not afraid to go after guys that, you know, made mistakes, especially with, you know, drinking and driving or, you know, doing something stupid. And that's what happened with Branch. He got in a little bit of trouble.

He had the weed thing happen too, and they've stuck by him. They haven't suspended him or anything of that nature. They've stuck by him, and he's turned into their best defensive tackle. You can't run at him. Branch was dominant. So they need to find a way to get him signed, and they need to make sure that he doesn't get overpaid, but they take care of him enough so that he's not tempted to move on to another team

because teams are going to come after him. They will absolutely positively be teams that are after Alan Branch in free agency, but I think he's going to show some. If the Patriots show enough money to him, I think he'll show some loyalty back to the organization that was not afraid to back him when he went through some tough times. So my prediction is Branch will be back, I say, two years, $10 million. That's what I'm going to say, two years, $10 million.

Last but not least, actually his least, is on tight end, I mean defensive end Greg Scruggs. What is Scruggs? Actually, Scruggs is a tight end. I don't believe he'll be back. If he is, he'll be back on a cheaper deal. But they have draft picks, so a lot of these guys, these fringe guys like Riley and Scruggs and guys of that nature and Mingo, I don't think they're going to be back just simply because the Patriots

are going to replace those guys with draft picks and with some other veteran free agents that become available that have probably got more talent than some of the guys that they have available. So there you have it. That's what I think of defense. I see Hightower, Ryan, Butler, Chris Long, and Alan Branch being re-signed. Trevor Riley, Jabal Shid, Mingo, and Scruggs being let go. So that's what I see happening.

I think the Patriots are going to have to spend a lot of money on defense. They're going to have to spend probably about $36-$37 million on defense. On offense, they're going to have to spend, I would probably say, about $15 million. So right there, that brings you up to about $52 million of the $57 million that they have available. But that's doable because there's going to be other guys that are going to take very small deals to come to New England because they want a chance to win the Super Bowl. So there you have it. That's my opinion on Patriots free agency.

Who's going to be out there? Who are they going to resign? Who are they going to let go? And pretty much how much money who's going to be out there who they're going to resign who they're going to let go and pretty much how much money they're going to be looking at so I want to thank you guys for joining us on this Monday on this Wednesday edition of Lockdown Patriots

don't worry I'll be okay over here be sure to go to iTunes subscribe to our show today as in right now go tell your friends about us Lockdown Networks is growing like crazy Be sure to go to iTunes, subscribe to our show today, as in right now. Go tell your friends about us. Lockdown Networks is growing like crazy. People love us.

We talk about us on ESPN. I get to go on ESPN Radio and talk to guys at times. We're doing great over here, and you guys should really check us out every day. If we don't have a show up that day, we'll have one up the next day. Sometimes things come up where we'll miss a day, but we're always going to have at least five shows per week, so definitely come check us out. Here at Locked On Patriots, we're all about getting Patriots fans the most info

you need to be the most in-the-know Patriots fans. So I want you guys to be sure to join us tomorrow. We're going to discuss potential free agents from around the NFL that could be a strong fit for the 2017 Patriots. Again, I'm your host Chris Simino. Thank you for joining us tonight.

Be sure to join us again tomorrow and have a great day, Patriots fans. You Super Bowl champions. Have a great one. Whatcha doing? Ran out of space on my phone, so I'm deleting some stuff. By singing dog. By goal. By wedding ceremony.

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