Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS- 2/4/17- Super Bowl Breakdown and Prediction

Episode Date: February 4, 2017

Chris Simoneau of Scout.com breaks down tomorrow's matchup and picks his Super Bowl LI winner and final score. #patriots Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

That's for my crazy day. My packed commute. All those unread emails in my inbox. But I'm getting stronger, faster, and pushing myself further every day. I don't care if I'm not like everyone else. This punching bag is the best way to end my day. Fearless is knowing yoga isn't your style. That's the power of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program.

Learn more about our healthy benefits at fepblue.org slash getmore. Good morning, I'm Chris Simino, Patriots inside of a scout.com, and also your host of Locked On Patriots, your source for everything Patriots. Today is Saturday, February 4th, 2017. We are now one day away from Super Bowl 51. And we have plenty to talk about because we've been kind of out of commission all week. We did post a show yesterday. Hope you guys enjoyed that.

But we're going to do a little examination of the Patriots offense versus the Falcons defense and vice versa. And get an idea of who we think is going to win the game and what the final score is going to be. This is a great matchup on paper, but the game is played on the field, not on paper. So the Patriots defense, which has been called overrated all season, has another chance to shut down a great offense like they did in the AFC Championship and prove that they're just as good, if not better, than the much-heralded 2014 unit that helped them win a Super Bowl.

Before we get started, I just want my listeners to know that I can be found on Twitter under the handle chris__simoneau, that's C-H-R-A-S underscore S-I-M-O-N-E-A-U. And if you have any questions for the show, be it about the Patriots, myself, Patriots Insider, or if you're looking to advertise here on Lockdown Patriots, you can email me directly at chrissimusc at yahoo.com or also at simoneau.christopher5 at gmail.com. If you're a member of Patriots Insider on scout.com, and if you aren't, you should be, you can contact me directly on the site via message. All right, enough of that stuff.

Let's get down to the first thing I want to go over, the Patriots offense versus the Falcons defense. So we do this weekly, and I think this is a good segment because it really gives you guys an idea of what the teams have done throughout the season. And, you know, 16-game schedule, the proof is in the pudding. You know, you hear a lot of these guys around the New England media questioning the Patriots because, you know, oh, their numbers look great, but, you know, they're not a true 14-2 team.

It's just a joke when you hear things like that. They are a true 14-2 team because their record's 14-2. So, and the numbers that they've put up. They are a true 14-2 team because their record's 14-2. And the numbers that they've put up, those are also true numbers because those are the numbers that they put up over a 16-game season. You are what your record and your numbers show that you are. It doesn't matter if you look at the competition and say, well, the competition maybe doesn't seem quite as good as it used to be. Well, that's on them.

You're still the king of the mountain, and you won games by almost an average of two touchdowns per game. So let's get into this. Patriots offense, 27.6 points per game, third in the league, 386.2 yards per game, fourth in the league, 269.2 passing yards per game, fourth in the league, and 117 rushing yards per game. Good stuff.

Third, fourth, fourth, and seventh. I mean, that's extremely, extremely efficient offense. They can throw it. They can run it. They can score it. They can do all three. So they know what they're doing. They're a very, very veteran-laden unit.

There are some young guys out there, but they have the veterans in the spots that they need them to be. Yes, they are without Gronkowski, but they have been without him for a while. Martellus Bennett has had two weeks to allow his injuries to heal up. I think Martellus Bennett is going to have a big day tomorrow. Falcons defense. Now, again, you've got to look at the numbers. The overall numbers throughout the course of the season. And I know that they've been better over the last eight weeks,

but they're averaging, allowing 25.4 points per game. That's 27th in the league. They give up 371.2 yards per game. That's 25th in the league. They've given up 266.7 passing yards per game, which is 28th in the league. And they allow 104.5 rushing yards per game, which is 17th in the league. Now, the rushing yard stat is a little bit deceiving because a lot of teams were coming back and trying to fight to get back against the Falcons

because of their terrific offense. So a lot of times teams would abandon the run against Atlanta and they would have to throw in order to make a run at them. And it's pretty clear that the Falcons allowed a pretty good amount of yardage when it came to that situation. And even when teams weren't trying to run all that much, they still were able to run for over 100 yards a game. So I know that they've gotten better.

I know that they have four rookies. I know that they're fast. I know that they're young. And I know that they have a coach that's been in three of the last four Super Bowls because of his defenses. I also know that they're young, inexperienced, and they're going up against a quarterback that if they don't get a middle pass rush on them,

I don't care how talented they are, he's going to find guys and he's going to make plays. Brady will figure out this Falcons defense, and he is going to pick it apart at some point. On paper, it looks like a tremendous mismatch just from looking at it. And again, Falcons' defense has been better. Two weeks ago, they did great against Aaron Rodgers, and he was playing the best football of his career,

but he was also losing players every other play. It was like somebody else was going down. The Patriots, they can protect, and that's another big thing too. They've done a good job in protection after the whole situation they dealt with in the first playoff game, the divisional round against Houston when they had some trouble. That was almost a blessing in disguise to have to go up against a clowny and those type of players because now they went up against Pittsburgh last week and they didn't get a hand on Brady, and that team's got a pretty fast, young defense. Sound familiar? So Atlanta's defensive line, they better be ready for the challenge, because this offensive line is going to come out ready to go. I think

the Patriots are bigger up front. That's going to be a problem. I think that could be a big day for the Patriots' running game. Beasley, he's a legit pass rusher, but he's not going to be able to do it on his own, and the best ways to negate a legit pass rusher But he's not going to be able to do it on his own And the best ways to negate a good pass rusher Is run right at him That's the best way to do it I've been saying that forever and it's the truth Unless it's Reggie White, rest in peace Reggie If it's one of those guys, that's a different story

But there's not many pass rushers out there That get run at That can stop it when it's coming at them So let's put Mr. Beasley on his heels a little bit, and that'll probably help the Patriots' offense. So I fully expect the Patriots' offense to drive throughout the game. The Falcons' red zone defense has also been very bad, so expect to see the Patriots scoring touchdowns, not field goals.

Again, I just don't see this as a good matchup for this Falcons defense just because of how smart the Patriots are. They're not afraid to take a few shots down the field, but at the same time they're going to kill you with a thousand paper cuts. And that's what they do. And when you're facing a young defense, they'll start getting frustrated and they'll start trying to overplay and make plays. And next thing you know, you hit them over the top with a bomb to Hogan or Mitchell or one of those guys.

It could be a very long day for the Falcons defense. And that's actually what I see happening. So I'm going to throw out a prediction here for points for the Patriots. I think the Patriots are going to score 34 points on the Falcons defense. And the Patriots are going to score 34 points on the Falcons' defense, and I think they're going to do it with relative ease, and I also think they're going to do it with balance, and that's going to allow the Patriots' defense to get nice and rested,

so that way they're off the field and the Patriots can win the time of possession battle at the same time as winning, you know, having more points. So my prediction, Patriots score 34 points. LeGarrette Blount and Deion Lewis are going to combine for about 140 to 160 yards rushing, and I think that Brady's going to throw for 300 yards. This is how I see things playing out.

So secondly, let's take a look at the Falcons' offense. Falcons' offense is awesome. 33.8 points per game. First in the league, 415.8 yards per game. Second in the league, 295 yards passing per game. Third in the league, and 120.5 yards rushing per game. Just excellent. Excellent offense.

First in the league in scoring. Second in the league in yards. second in the league in yards, third in the league in passing yards, and fifth in the league in rushing yards. They can do it all. They have guys all over the place. They're loaded. This is not the Julio Jones-only show, okay? This is not, as Bill Shanks, I was glad he brought that up the other day,

when they used to have Julio and Roddy, and then that's it. They were just basically top-heavy. This team's not like that anymore. They're not top-heavy at all. They have a ton of talent on their receiving core, and guys like Gabriel and guys like Sanu, they have guys all over the place, and their running backs are very talented too. So the Patriots are going to have their hands full.

The one thing the Patriots do have going for them, though, is they have depth in their secondary. Their linebackers are starting to play with more confidence, and they finally have developed somewhat of a pass rush since they got Trey Flowers going on their defense. So our Patriots defense numbers allowed 15.6 points per game. Haven't been much different in the playoffs. They've pretty much been right around that number. 326.4 yards allowed per game, which was eighth in the league. 237.9 through per game, which was 8th in the league. 237.9 through the year, which was 12th, which is an improvement as the year went on.

And also 88.6 rushing yards per game, which was 4th, which was excellent. The passing yards, very similar to what I said with Atlanta. The Patriots are going to give up passing yards because teams are always trying to chase them to get back into the game. Unfortunately, it didn't work out most times as the Patriots went 14-2, but even with teams doing that, New England was still able to be 12th in the league in passing yards against. So that's impressive. That's an impressive number. So when you look at these two teams, these two units ready to face off against each other,

you hear a lot of things about matchups and what the Patriots are going to do here, what the Patriots are going to do here, what the Patriots are going to do there. I do think that they're going to put Eric Rowe and Devin McCourty on Julio Jones. I believe that's going to happen. I think that they'll put Butler will be on Sanu and then they'll use Logan Ryan to pick up Gabriel or, yeah, pick up Gabriel and then they'll go from there as far as what they're going to do with the running backs.

Expect to see Patrick Chung down in the box a lot. I know they're going to use him on one of the backs. They have to. They're not going to have a choice. So it's going to be interesting to see how they match this thing up. I do think going man is probably one of the

things they're going to want to do, because if you go man with these guys and you're able to slow them down a little bit and still keep them in front of you at the same time, you know, that deep cover two man, I think that would be something that the Patriots, it would make sense for them to run just so they don't get beat over the top, and that's what they do. That's why they don't give up a lot of points. That's why they don't give up a lot of big plays is because of the style of defense that they play. They're not going to change their style because they're facing the Falcons.

They're going to look at the Falcons and say, okay, we need to take away a couple things here in order to slow them down, and then we can keep them below 25 points, and that's pretty much the goal going into the game. The Falcons have done a good job over the last eight weeks of getting the ball and going down the field and scoring on their first drive of the game too. And I'm not talking about field goals. I'm talking about touchdowns.

So it's going to be important for the Patriots defense to limit some of these Falcons drives because the Falcons are going to move the ball. There's no getting around that. They are going to move the ball. Patriots fans should understand that. They're going to move the ball. Patriots fans should understand that. They're going to go from the 20 to the 20 with ease. Well, not with ease, but they're going to go from the 20 to the 20.

The tough part when you're facing New England is actually scoring touchdowns when you get into that area. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see what the Patriots do to slow them down when they do get into the red zone. But I do think that they will. I think they'll make enough stops and force enough field goals in order to get this win. I think they're going to give up more points than what they give up on average just because, you know, you're facing the best offense you've faced all year.

You're facing what's ranked as the best offense in the league, although I do think the Patriots' offense is just as good. You know, a lot of people think the Falcons have faced the toughest schedule. I don't believe that for a second. If you look at the two teams, you know, the Patriots schedule, it's interesting because people look at, well, they only played, you know, six playoff teams or five playoff teams or whatever it ended up being. But if you look at the list of the teams that they beat, four of those teams that they knocked off, Cardinals, Broncos,

and the other two are escaping me, they were all teams that the Cardinals going into the season were picked to be Super Bowl favorites by a lot of experts. And if those experts now are going to try to pretend that they didn't, well, that's on them. And that was game one. So they were healthy. Atlanta was ready. Arizona was ready to go.

Patriots went in there and beat them with a backup quarterback. So, you know, say what you want to say, but I put that more as a great Patriots win than a terrible Arizona loss. And then it just snowballed from there for the Cardinals. Same thing with the Broncos. The Patriots went into Denver. Denver was 8-5. Denver beat New England last year at Denver.

New England always loses at Denver. It's always a problem. Took care of business. Week 16 or week 17, Miami. Yeah, I know. They got whooped in the first round of the playoffs, and they got knocked out. They still were 10-16 this year. They beat some good teams.

The Patriots always struggle in southern Florida. They went down there and whooped up on them, too. So I've heard enough of the narrative of the Patriots playing a weak schedule and this and that and the Falcons have had a tough ride. No. No. That's not the case at all. The Falcons division is not as good as the AFC East was this year. I don't care what anybody says. It wasn't. Tampa Bay was pretty good. Carolina stunk. Tampa Bay, yeah, pretty good. But, you know, Atlanta, 11-5 in New Orleans was a pretty good

offense, but overall they stunk. The AFC East was considerably better when you look at the Dolphins are a playoff team. The Buffalo Bills beat up some good teams this year. I believe they finished 7-9, so it's not like they were completely bad. And the Jets, even though they were terrible, they still had their moments. I've heard enough about the schedule stuff in the Patriots defense not proving anything and this and that. This whole week has been the Falcons offense is great, the Patriots offense is suspect, the Patriots defense is suspect,

Falcons defense is fast and getting better. You see a lot of the setup for the upset being talked about all week long. Everyone's thinking the Falcons are going to come in here and take care of business and they're going to beat the Patriots and yada, yada, yada, and mainly reasons because the Patriots defense is just not what people think it is. So I'm telling you right now that those people are wrong. The Patriots defense is what it says it is. So I'm telling you right now that those people are wrong. The Patriots' defense is what it says it is. And those numbers continue to get better.

And they continue to gel. And that young team, because there are a lot of young kids on that defense still, continue to get better and better and better every single week. And they've had two weeks to prepare for this Falcons offense. They know what they're going to have to do. And here's the other thing, too, and that nobody wants to talk about. The Falcons offense is good. I get it.

I get it. Matt Ryan's a good player. Patriots defense faces Tom Brady every single day in practice. Okay? Every single day. And these guys have been around for a couple years, so it's not like they've got four rookies like Atlanta does. And I know Atlanta's defense is most likely improved

because of the offense that they're facing every day too. But they don't have years of experience of doing it. Patriots defense does, and that's one of the reasons why they only give up 15.6 points per game and 326 total yards per game, which is also 8th in the league. They do that because when they're facing the best quarterback in the league, and I think the best offense in the league on a daily basis, it's making them better. So yes, the Falcons are on that same track because their defense is talented and they're

getting better and they're young. And I think over the next four years, I think the Falcons are going to probably make it to a couple more Super Bowls at least. But this season, I don't think they're ready to beat the Patriots yet. I just don't think they're ready to do it yet. So what I'm going to say is I think the Falcons are going to score 24 points, which is 9 points below their average. I get that.

It's 9 points below what they usually score. Actually, almost 10 points below what they usually score if you round up. But that's also 9 points above what the Patriots usually give up. So we're going in between here. We're going in between. I think the Falcons are going to score a little bit more than what the Patriots give up, and I think the Falcons are going to score a little bit less

than what they're used to scoring. And that just makes sense when you look at what the Patriots typically allow, and it makes sense when you look at what the Falcons can do in their talent. So there it is. Special teams-wise, I don't think that there's a huge difference between the two teams. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them miss an extra point, get missed, or a field goal get missed or anything like that. A lot of nerves in the Super Bowl.

But overall, I think special teams-wise, Eric Williams is a little bit dangerous, but the Patriots coverage team is nasty. They're great. And there's nobody in the Patriots return game that really puts a lot of fear into teams. I know Deion Lewis had a nice return for a touchdown against Houston, but at the same time, that was a one-time thing that hasn't happened since 2012, and I think the chances of that happening again are pretty slim and none. But you never know.

That's why they play the games. But I don't think special teams is going to be the difference in this game. So my prediction, I said it the other night. For those of you who got to listen in, I kind of jumped the gun. I just couldn't help myself and me and Bill going back and forth. But I predict Patriots 34, Falcons 24, Patriots Super Bowl 51 champions, and Brady wins the MVP and raises his fifth Super Bowl

trophy to the world. That's what I see happening tomorrow night. I think the game's going to start off teams going to feel each other out a little bit. Whoever gets the ball first will probably score. It may not be a touchdown, but whoever does get the ball first is definitely going to score in this game.

Then going from there, it's going to be matching wits. And, you know, if Atlanta gets the ball first and they go down and score, the Patriots will look at what they need to adjust to, something that they're excellent at doing, and vice versa. If the Patriots get the ball, go down and score, I'm sure, you know, Dan Quinn's going to have something to do and some type of adjustment, maybe going to man or switching it up, and that's something that they'll probably adjust on too. So it's just going to be fun to watch. I hope you Patriots fans enjoy yourself.

Don't go too crazy because, you know, don't go too crazy tonight. That's one of the things I see a lot is people get all fired up, and then they start going out and drinking it up on Saturday night and have a big party, and next thing you know, you've got drinking it up on Saturday night and have a big party. Next thing you know, you've got to wake up on Sunday. I know the game's on until 6 o'clock, so you've got some time to recuperate, but a lot of times that recuperation time isn't what you need. So just be careful tonight.

Don't go out and go too crazy tonight. Save your juice for tomorrow for when the game comes, so that way you're not exhausted when you're trying to watch the Super Bowl because there's nothing worse than watching the Super Bowl and almost falling asleep, especially when your team's in it. So, again, take it easy tonight. Enjoy yourselves. Celebrate the fact that the Patriots are in the Super Bowl. But remember, this is just pre-gaming tonight.

Tomorrow, you've got to be on point all day long. So, I want to thank you guys all for joining us on this Saturday morning edition of Locked On Patriots be sure to go to iTunes and subscribe to our show today as in right now and tell your friends about us here at Locked On Patriots as you guys know we are all about getting

Patriots fans the most info they need to be the most in the know Patriots fan be sure to join us tomorrow we're going to do a pregame show we're going to have hopefully they need to be the most in-the-know Patriots fan. Be sure to join us tomorrow. We're going to do a pregame show. We're going to have, hopefully, hopefully, hopefully, you guys remember this guy, Mr. Crazy Kurt. He's been out of commission for a little while,

but we've got him back, and we're going to have a show with him. We're going to have him on the show through Skype. It's going to be great. So tomorrow at 1130, we're going to record it, and then we're going to post it around I'd say 12.30, 1 o'clock. So be sure to be listening tomorrow with myself and hopefully if everything works out

Crazy Kurt from Fitchburg, Massachusetts will come on with us and we're going to talk about the Super Bowl with him and get his idea of what he thinks is going to happen because you guys are going to like him. He's very opinionated but he's very smart and he knows what he's talking about. He's going to explain who he thinks he has the edge, and he'll make his prediction too. So again, join us tomorrow for our pregame show with Kurt. I'm your host, Chris Simino.

Thank you for joining us this morning, Patriots fans. And like I said, take it slow today. Conserve your energy for tomorrow, because tomorrow, the Patriots are trying to win one for the thumb. Uh-oh. I hope I don't get in trouble for trademark infringement. Just kidding. Have a great day, guys. Is democracy in danger or decline?

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