Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots April 11, 2018 - Self Reflection and QB Fits for Each Patriots' Pick

Episode Date: April 11, 2018

Mark Schofield opens by taking some Ls on his 2016 QB rankings, then copies an idea from Jess Root over at Cards Wire and identifies a QB value/fit for each of New England's eight picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Good morning and welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Wednesday, April 11th, 2018. Mark Schofield in the big chair. Reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Follow the work at InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly. At ITP, I'm one of the lead writers at Pro Football Weekly. I've been brought on to provide some coverage and analysis for the quarterbacks in this draft class. Got a new piece up today. Talking about some later round QB fits.

Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, two guys that I'll mention today. Because there's going to be a quarterback heavy show today. Surprise, surprise. The quarterback guy wants to talk about quarterbacks. I'll mention today because there's going to be a quarterback heavy show today. Surprise, surprise. The quarterback guy wants to talk about quarterbacks. What we're going to do, I was inspired by a piece by Jess Root over at CardsWire, CardsWire.USAToday.com, where he's covering the Arizona Cardinals. And what he did was identify a quarterback for each round of the draft where the Cardinals have a pick.

And I thought, hey, that's a great idea. So I'm stealing that a little bit. I'm going to have a quarterback or two for each pick of the New England Patriots 2018 draft. This is something I'm going to then bring to other positions as well as we get closer and closer to draft time. We're also getting closer and closer to tax time for those of you here in the States, which leads me into my next segment.

What we're going to start with is me taking some L's, taking an L this tax season, and I'm taking some L's on the timeline today because as I do every year around springtime, I revisit draft rankings from two years prior. I like to do that because I like to give these players time to sort of sort out where they are in the NFL to get more information on them before I really dive in and revisit my rankings on players. And so there's a piece up over at InsideThePylon.com right now titled, Check With Me, Self-Evaluation in the 2016 Quarterback Class. And as I said, the job here in this piece is self-evaluation,

to take some L's if need be. And it would be easy for me to sort of toot my horn a bit. I had Jared Goff as QB1, and he went first overall. I had Carson Wentz as QB2, and he went second overall. And I was fairly early, not the first.

Perhaps I was on Wentz, but I was fairly early on both of those guys. I had Goff as my QB1 coming into that season. I was one of the first people writing about Wentz back when he was leading the Bison to a national title as a junior. Before that season kicked off, Matt Waldron and I sat down

and did an RSP film room on Carson Wentz the night before his senior year debut against the Montana Grizzlies, the game which Carson Wentz the night before his senior year debut against the Montana Grizzlies, the game which Carson Wentz actually lost. And there were some other rankings along the way that I think I kind of got right. I had Cody Kessler as quarterback seven. I was higher on him than most.

And he came off the board fairly early. I had Jacoby Brissett as quarterback nine. Again, higher on him than most. And as we know, he was drafted by the Patriots. I had Christian Hackenberg as quarterback 15. A fringe draftable quarterback. Obviously, the Jets disagreed, but I think in the end,

it looks like my evaluation is going to be closer to the mark. So there are some things that I got right. I was higher on Josh Woodrum, a random name, than most, but he's still in the league, a backup with the Ravens, even though he was an undrafted free agent.

But there are two names that I really sort of want to talk about. And like I said, taking some L's because self-evaluation is so critical to this entire process of seeing what it is you're doing right, realizing what it is you might be doing wrong and trying to get better each time you go out. You know, that's part of life. It's all a learning lesson. And so the first name I want to start with is Vernon Adams. Vernon Adams, the former Oregon Duck, who sort of took the draft community by storm. As we're seeing play out a little bit right now, as people look away from the top guys and start looking elsewhere,

late in that draft season, Adams got a lot of buzz. People were really sort of talking about him. I put him as my quarterback five you know I had you know four guys ahead of him obviously in Goff, Wentz, Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook which is another questionable ranking of mine

but I looked at Adams and I thought we were seeing a potential NFL quarterback. Now, in a sense, you know, I looked at Adams and I could see into the future. And I basically said, look, you know, we're hearing from league circles that he's not going to be drafted. He's not even meeting with teams. He's not even meeting with teams. He's not even working out for teams. So in all likelihood, look, I think he could go earlier in the draft

than the NFL does, but in all likelihood, he doesn't get drafted. Or maybe a team takes a flyer on him late in the seventh round. He's part of a numbers game in camp. He doesn't get a shot to really prove himself, and he ends up in the CFL. That's probably your one to three-year projection on him. So in a sense, I got that right. But what really happened was, and as we're seeing right now,

you get into this draft cycle, you get deep into it, and you start reaching and looking for something else, a new shiny object, reaching for the ultimate outlier. And I, among others, saw that in Vernon Adams. Now, I put him fifth. There were people that had him higher. There were some that had him as a first-round pick. There were some that had him as QB1. There were some that said he was the only first round quarterback in this entire draft. That may have all been the same person, but.

So I missed on Adams. I got that one wrong. But that's not even the biggest L I have in this draft class. There's another one that I'm not the only one that's taken an L on this. A lot of people missed on him, including the team that picked him missed on him. And that's Dak Prescott. I had him as my QB 17. I had him below Christian Hackenberg. Look, if you want to rip me for this one, that's fine. I'm putting it out there, though I'm not hiding it.

And I think, for me, when I watched Prescott, there were things that I liked. You know, I liked his downfield aggression. I liked his general accuracy in the deep ball. I pegged him for a quarterback that would fit best in an Eric Correale downfield type system, which coincidentally is what Jason Garrett prefers. That's his sort of coaching tree. But my main hang-up with him was one of ball placement, one of inaccuracy.

There were times when he was just missing easy throws, and he wasn't putting the ball where it needed to be. I mean, a play that stuck out in my mind, and maybe it stuck out too much. It was a fourth down play. He was throwing a simple flat route to his running back. It was wide open. He puts it on the back hip, the wrong hip, forces the receiver to make an awkward adjustment,

and the linebacker rotates over and stops it for no gain. And defense has to come out onto the field. And it wasn't just that one play, although that did stick in my mind. I remember it here two years later. But over the sort of course of his time at Mississippi State, even when I went down to see him in Mobile during that week of practices during the Senior Bowl, he was

missing easy throws then. And I just thought that absent a remarkable change in ball placement, he was likely a long-term backup with the potential to be a spot starter given his more impressive skills such as play strength arm talent and athletic ability which can be enough to win games off the bench so i thought that even with all of this there were still some nice things that he could win games in the nfl but i thought it was more look long-term backup right

but in to try in trying to sort of dive into what I missed, why I was so low and was there something that I didn't get right? Was there something that I didn't give enough weight? I went back through all my notes, all my handwritten notes. I've got them all in binders, binders and binders and binders full of notes on all these guys.

And I saw it and I had it and I had the trait identified that was so important, that's going to be so critical to him and other quarterbacks, and I just didn't give it enough weight. And that's competitive toughness. And I took a picture of my notes at the end of studying his 2014 game against Alabama.

First, there's a play that I identify. Again, my note-taking, my chicken scratch, it's my hand right in my short form, long form, whatever. But at the end of a play, I identify a great throw on a stick nod for a touchdown, and I put down plus competitive toughness. And that's the last play from that game. And then I sort of summarize the game afterwards. Very competitively tough player.

Can manipulate defenders with his eyes. Good play speed, but does come off routes too quickly at times. Does force throw at times. Great athlete. Good to great arm talent with upper tier velocity. I had it right there. I had the competitive toughness right there, but I didn't give it enough weight. I didn't give it any weight. But if you've been listening to this show, if you've been following my work on quarterbacks, you know that that's a trait that I've come to value more.

Because it matters in the NFL. It matters at the quarterback position. It's the difference between a guy that's going to bail the pocket or a guy that's going to hang in there on third and seven against the Blitz. It's the difference between a guy that's going to cut out early or a guy that's going to put in the extra hours of work to study film, to learn Blitz tendencies, to learn stunts up front. It's what convinces you to put your body on the line in a national championship game.

It's what makes you put in the work to be ready when you get your shot. It's what separates the great from the good, that competitive toughness. I identified it in Prescott. I didn't give it enough weight. If I had, I'd like to think I would have been much higher on him than I was. I would have been more confident in him to improve what he needed to improve. His ball placement. And he did. Prescott made himself a better quarterback. And he was ready when he got his shot.

And he turned it into a rookie of the year caliber season. But I missed it. I had it in my notes and I missed it in his evaluation. Which brings me to the ultimate lesson I have from this class. I am not making that mistake again. The next year, my quarterback won Deshaun Watson. Why? In part because of his competitive toughness. You know, putting your body on the line in the national championship game, there's a reason I put that line in this piece. It's because that was Watson. My quarterback two this year, Baker Mayfield. Why? In part because of his competitive toughness. I said it on another show

that's getting a lot of buzz in Jets world. Baker is the player that wants to cut your throat and watch you die. And that's a gruesome phrase, I know. But that's Baker Mayfield.

That's his competitive toughness. And so my lesson from this process was it matters. Competitive toughness. Don't undervalue it like you did with Prescott but is it right is it an overreaction we'll see next year when we get two years in on Deshaun Watson was my decision to sort of look at competitive toughness and have it play more of a role? Was it the right one or not? We'll see. But that's me taking some L's. And look, I've had some people, why are you doing this? Because part of me thinks that, look, if you're going to follow my work, if you're going to listen to the podcasts, read the work, et cetera,

I want to be open with you guys. I want to be honest with you guys. I'm not going to hide the stuff I missed because quarterback evaluation is hard enough for the NFL to get right. It's even harder for guys on the outside like me that don't have all the information that the NFL teams do. NFL teams have everything they could ever want to know about a guy,

and they still get it wrong. But I just think it gives some credence to what I'm doing if I'm honest about my mistakes credence to what I'm doing if I'm honest about my mistakes as well as what I get right. And in the end, you know, my rankings on Wentz, my rankings on Goff, my rankings on Christian Hackenberg, Sean Watson, I don't take much joy in that. The fact that I missed on Prescott, that one stuck with me.

The fact that I missed on Vernon Adams, Adam Tupai, that stuck with me. Maybe I'm just a strange person, but couldn't tell you any of the touchdown passes I threw when I played the game, but I can tell you about all the interceptions to this day, what I get wrong. Maybe there's something wrong with me, I don't know. But I'd like to think it makes

me at least a little bit better each time I try to do this when I look back at my mistakes and try to learn from them. So that's me taking some L's. Next, we're going to talk quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft for the New England Patriots. Kick it off a series where I'm going to look at best options at a number of positions at each spot in the draft. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, in Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you On Patriots. Mark Schofield

back with you, dusting off the bruises and icing the bruises after taking some lumps and some L's in the first part of the show. What we're going to do now, we're going to go through the New England Patriots 2018 draft. We're going to do it position by position. A little series on this, identifying

the players that I would target at each pick in the draft if you're addressing this position. And we're going to start with quarterbacks. Again, this is inspired by Jess Root, a piece he wrote over at CardsWire. He did this for the Arizona Cardinals. I thought, hey, that's a great idea, so I'm going to steal it. Again, with attribution, because as I've said in other places,

citation is what makes the world go round. Now, for a couple of these picks, I might have, we've got two picks, because, as I've said in other places, citation is what makes the world go round. Now, for a couple of these picks, I might have, we've got two picks bunched together in the first round. I'm going to mention two players for both of those picks. And I might do that a little bit later.

In the sixth, they've got two picks pretty close to each other as well. So let's get started here. And obviously the Patriots, they have two picks in the first round. They've got 23 and 31. I go Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. I would be okay with either of those guys in the first round.

And I can hear people saying right now, wait, wait, Mark, he's your QB5. Why are you okay with Josh Allen? And if you've been following the show, following the work, you know that I think that's about where he should be drafted. And to a team like New England, it won't have to play him right away. I think he could eventually become a good quarterback if he threads that narrow developmental needle that I think is in front of him. And I think a team like New England gives him the best shot to do it. And if he falls to 23, if he's there on the board,

I'm okay with them foregoing other needs to get him because of his upside. I think people are saying that he's a 100% bust, and I wouldn't go that far. I think in the right situation, he could be a good quarterback. I think if he comes off the board at four, at one, you're setting yourself up for a potential bust. But at 23 to New England, when he can learn, when he can sit, when he can develop, I'm okay with that.

Similar with Lamar Jackson. I'm more confident in Lamar Jackson succeeding as an NFL quarterback than I am Josh Allen. I think Lamar Jackson has a wider path to NFL success. But look, if you're going to have somebody that talented fall to you at 23, at 31, run to the table, turn the card in, and say, hey, you know what? We got our quarterback now. We're good. So those are the guys, look, I would target in the first round. When we get to that pick in the second round again two picks in the second round that first one the 11th pick in the second round

43rd overall that's I think a sweet spot for Mason Rudolph now I wrote over at Pro Football Weekly the other day a piece that's coming out today actually that the ideal fit for him was Jacksonville, sort of a hybrid downfield passing offense that does a lot of play action. I think that fits Mason Rudolph's skill set very well because of his ability to make downfield throws and because of some of the other things he can do in the passing game. But I also can see the fit in New England. The ability to make timing and rhythm and anticipation throws,

it's something that I've liked about Rudolph for a while now. That's a big component of New England's offense that earned Perkins' system. I mean, how many times do you see Brady getting the ball out, anticipating a throw, anticipating a throw and window? I think Rudolph can run this offense. And sort of in that 43 range, I think that's the sweet spot for him. Of course, quarterbacks being such a valued position, he might go off the board before that. He might go on the first. But if he's there at 43 and they haven't addressed

quarterback in the first, I'm okay with that. Similarly, and this might be, again, a guy getting pushed up the board a little bit. I thought for the longest time that Lauletta at 95 was the sort of sweet spot for him. But now with the way we're seeing quarterbacks move up boards with the potential for five guys, maybe even six to go in the first round, you might be looking at Kyle Lauletta with that 31st pick in the second round, 63 overall.

Is it a little bit of a reach for him? Maybe, but you end up reaching for quarterbacks. And I think because of the traits with Lauletta, because of the cerebral nature to him, he would make sense there to me. And Lauletta has been the guy linked to the Patriots since the Senior Bowl. Maybe it all comes back full circle and that's the direction they go. And I'm okay with it with that 63rd pick. Up next, we're going to go through the remaining four picks that the Patriots would have in this draft and talk about a quarterback for each of those. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, in Locked On Patriots.

Mark Schofield, back with you to close out this Wednesday episode of Locked On Patriots. What we're doing right now, we're running through the Patriots selections in the 2018 draft and identifying quarterbacks at each pick that I would be okay with. We're going to do this for other positions of need. We're going to do it for offensive tackle. We're going to do it for corner. We're going to do it for wide receiver. We're going to go through some of the other positions of need, but we'll start with quarterbacks here today.

If you missed the first part of the show, look, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson with those picks in the first, Mason Rudolph with that first second round pick, Kyle Lolleta with that second second round pick. Now we are on the clock again at 95. And this is, as I said earlier, the sort of sweet spot that I had identified for Loretta but as quarterbacks move up the board Loretta's now looking like a late second so here we go Luke Falk quarterback Washington State and you know Mel Kiper has made the Tom Brady comparison I wouldn't go that far with Falk you know I'm not as high on him as others

certainly not as high as him on him as Mel Kuyper. But I think there are some nice things that Luke Falk brings to the table. The fact that Mike Leach gave him more freedom with the line of scrimmage, that's something that speaks volumes to me because a lot of quarterbacks come into the league right now

when they're getting play calls from the sideline, big poster boards with four different images of him, Mike Greenberg and Mike Golick and a taco and Spongebob, and that's supposed to mean something. So the freedom that Luke Falk had at the line of scrimmage, I think, speaks volumes to his mental capability, to his process and speed. I do like him sort of in that West Coast air raid mesh type offense, but I could see him coming into New England and developing into a quarterback that

could run the Aaron Perkins system. And so I like him at that 95th pick. If they haven't addressed quarterback yet, that's a pick I would like to see. Then the Patriots are on the clock again, and this is going by NFL.com. One of the strangest things in this draft cycle has been trying to figure out where the Patriots are actually picking from day to day. So the information available to me right now says they're not on the clock again until the 6th, and that's where I go Mike White, Logan Woodside. Patriots are on the clock at 198 and 210 with a 24th pick in the 6th round and the 36th pick in the sixth round.

And I'm good with those guys there. I think White would probably be gone by this point. I think there will be teams that covet him. I know Eric Galco over at Optimum and Scouted has been talking about Mike White for a long time now. Eric's got some, you know, some inside knowledge. So I'm sure that there are going to be teams that identify him. So White's probably gone, but you know, maybe Logan Woodside comes off the board here and you know, yeah, he's undersized six, one,

you know, not ideal size, doesn't have a power arm. But again, as I've written, you don't need a power arm in today's NFL. And I love his footwork. I love his timing.

I love his placement. I love the rhythm throws he can make. I think he's a great fit schematically like I wrote over at Pro Football Weekly, and so I'm okay here with the kid from Toledo. And finally, that brings us to the first pick of the seventh round. New England's last pick.

It's pick 219, I believe, if my handwriting is correct. And as I wrote over at Pro Football Weekly, a guy that is getting more and more buzz is Chad Knopf, the quarterback from Princeton. He's put up prodigious numbers at Princeton. His coach thinks the world of him. Comped him to Jared Goff.

And so, you know, I think that if they, for whatever reason, decide, look, we're just going to wait and wait and wait. Now we're on the clock here with that first pick in the seventh round. There you go. Chad Knoff. So to recap, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson in the first. Mason Rudolph, Kyle Oletta in the second.

Luke Falk in the third. Mike White, Logan Woodside in the sixth. And then Chad Knoff in the seventh round. Those are the quarterbacks. That's my sort of quarterback big board, I think, in the sixth, and then Chad Knopf in the seventh round. Those are the quarterbacks I've, that's my sort of quarterback big board, I think, for the New England Patriots. Those are the one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight guys that I think have that combination

of schematic fit and reasonable expectations that they could be there. Obviously guys like Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, guys that I like. I'm not sure that their Patriots are trading up for them, but who knows? Bill Belichick's known to do some crazy things. That will do it for today's show. Next time, we'll do a little timeline takes at the outset,

and then we're going to talk running backs. Going to do the same exercise with some of the running backs in this group, talking about, you know, each pick, guys I think I'd like to see there, guys that would fit New England. Until next time, keep it locked right here with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.