Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots April 17, 2019 - Safety Board, QB Situations

Episode Date: April 17, 2019

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Hey there everybody, welcome on in to a Wednesday installment of the Lockdown Patriots Podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair for today, Wednesday, April 18th, 2019. Glad to have you along for the ride here. Loaded show for you today. We're going to do a couple of things. We're going to look at the safety prospects. I'm going to have sort of my top ten as I sort of envision the Patriots board. Now, maybe this won't be the way it goes down because as we get deeper into the draft,

if they wait until, say, day three to take a safety, well, I mean, I've got a guy on here that might be sort of that day three safety that sort of makes everybody scratch their heads. Why is Belichick picking this guy? But you'll see. It'll kind of make some sense. Also, we're going to do some more quarterback situations. We're going to close out the NFC. I know we did the NFC East and South.

We're going to do the NFC North and NFC West. Got some curious situations unfolding there as well. No Game of Thrones talk yet. That is, however, unfolding in the Lockdown Patriots Slack channel, our Castle Black channel, more than anything else. We is dedicated to Game of Thrones discussion. But I will wait until Friday

because I know that there are people that don't get to watch it live. I don't want to spoil or anything. I can't believe how many people they killed off in the first episode of the year, though. But still. Anyway, before we do all of that, your usual reminder,

please follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at a variety of places, including InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, a trio of SB Nation websites, including Big Blue View, Bleeding Green Nation, where I'm the co-host of the QB Scope Show with the one and only Michael J. Kist, and of course, Pat's Pulpit. Got pieces going up at all of those places this week. Got stuff on Will Greer and Assuman over at Matt Waldman's site. I've got some more QB situations going up on Pro Football Weekly,

where you can see some of these. I've got also in the works some stuff on Jared Stidham, some stuff on a deeper dive into Will Greer over at Big Blue View. So as always, please do check out the work over at those websites. Let's sort of roll through these safeties now. I've got 10 names for you, and the theme of all of these players will be some kind of versatility. If you think about Bill Belichick and how he put together a roster, how he views safety play, versatility is kind of a big thing. So all of these players will have

some aspect to their game, whether it's a trait, whether it's a play style, whether it's a scheme or a situation or how they're used, the defensive role that their coaches use them in. There's some versatility. So we'll start at number 10. Here we go. The one and only, Saquon Hampton from Rutgers. That's right. You knew it. You knew that there was going to be a Rutgers player on this list. And we will start with the one and only Saquon Hampton. The versatility thing with him, it's a little bit interesting.

Because when you sort of look at him, he has played in a couple of different sort of roles for them they've put him in the slot at times although maybe he can't do that in the nfl but they've done it at times he's played both deep and down near the box he can be down in the box. He can be down in the box in the NFL. He can be a big nickel, dime type linebacker. They've also played him as a deep safety. He's covered tight ends in man covered situations. He should be able to do that in the National Football League. He's physical at the point of contact. He's physical at the catch point. He's done some stuff on kick and punt coverage. And you know special teams is a huge thing for the new england patriots now he's had some injury problems so that might be a concern anticipation on route coverage

and man coverage situations can struggle at times in that but this is a player that can do some different things and so i think because of that he's going to be on the patriots board and plus this of course the rutgers connection next is mike from Fresno State. He's a free safety that moves like a corner. Now the 4-8-3 at the combine might scare some people off, but he's got good ball skills, breaks on the ball well. 14 passes defended, including three interceptions in 2008. He's got some size to him as well. 6'3", 2'10", with 32 and 3-8 inch arms. So he's got some size and he's got some length. He's got some size to him as well. 6'3", 210 with 32 and 3 8-inch arms. So he's got some size and he's got some length. He's got some special teams ability as well. And so there's another player that can do a couple of different things. Maybe the 4'8", 3 probably prevents him

from being a true corner or anything like that. But he has that background to him. And so he's another player that i think we're going to watch here you don't want to know more about and keep an eye on as we get into the nfl draft next is amari hooker amani hooker excuse me from iowa safety from iowa working our way up this safety class here 5 11 2 10 a little bit shorter in the arms 30 and one-eighths inch arms but 4.48 on the 40 he's got some decent explosiveness to him three six point eight one excuse me in the three cone he can be a robber type he can be a big nickel type he can cover tight ends in the national football you know how belichick feels about that he played iowa's defender role, which is a hybrid type player, safety slash

linebacker. Again, you see that versatility. Good against the run, can play down in the box. So he's got that aspect to his game as well. He's got coverage ability on special teams. So there you go. They're going to have that special teams aspect to him. Now, maybe he's not a pure free safety, but with the Patriots and how they do so much with multiple safety looks, maybe you don't need that type of player. And so Amari Hooker, Imani Hooker, excuse me, I keep saying Amari Hooker. Amari Hooker, definitely from Iowa, a player you're going to want to watch.

Deontay Thompson from Alabama. A lot of people had him sort of safety one coming into this draft process, but now he's slid down the boards a bit. 6'1", 195, 32 and one-eighth inch arms. Athleticism might be a question mark, but the mental side of it and the scheme fit, I think are going to be big drawers for the New England Patriots. Obviously playing in a Saban defense, there's going to be a lot of similarity between what they do and what the Patriots do. He's athletic on film. He's got great instincts. He can play over the top as a cover one

free safety, but there are times when he can play down near the box. He's very willing in run support. He can play downhill. So that's very good in terms of that versatility aspect you're looking for is his safety now the athleticism might be a question but if you're looking at say the player we just talked about hooker from iowa and then hem that's a perfect sort of two safety tandem

you got the guy that can play over the top the guy that can play down in the box but thompson sort of has the mental aspect as well as the ability to sort of fit into both roles. And so definitely a player we're going to want to keep an eye on. Next is Darnell Savage from Maryland, who is moving up draft boards. A lot of people really like him. 4.36 at the combine is very quick for a guy that might be a box safety type. 5'11", 198, 31-inch arms. He played as a freshman, started the season finale for maryland a guy that can do a lot of stuff underneath a hybrid type defender he can give you too high stuff he can give you some coverage ability in the slot he can play down in the box he can play deep i mean he's returned two picks for touchdowns. Very quick trigger. When he sees run fits, he will explode downhill.

Very good radar. Now, it might be a little bit undersized. It might be built more like a running back than a safety or anything like that. But certainly a player that can fill some different kinds of roles, has the traits to do some special team stuff as well. And so I'd keep an eye on Savage, as we've seen in some of these mocks, as we get sort of into that early day two range. He's a player to keep in mind.

Taylor Rapp from Washington. He's another very intriguing safety prospect. Six feet, 208, 30 and three-quarter inch arms. He's a player that three-year starter, great football intelligence, not big but built well, played all over the field. Can be a down safety, can be a deep safety with two high and single high looks. Can cover tight ends.

Not the greatest man coverage guy, but it's good enough. Good in run support. Good with open field tackling. Seems like a Patriots type player. Think about how many he might have one of those sort of high floor situations. Lance Zerline over at NFL.com said his coverage talent is average, but his run support effort and open field tackling are clearly defined strengths that make him a relatively safe selection. So there's something to be said for that.

So there's Taylor Rapp from Washington, another interesting player, something I'm sure is on the Patriots' radar. Then there's the guys screaming upwards. Jonathan Abram, Lance Zerline, for example, has him as safety one in this group. I'm a little bit more down on him, at least through a Patriots lens, and I'll tell you why in a second. He's safety four on my mock Patriots board, but he's got some great things to him. 4.45 at the 40.

He's a guy that is just an absolute hammer, just an absolute hammer at the tackle point. Down box safety, can play nickelbacker as well. Shines as a physical run defender can really sort of play down in the box very tough very competitive kind of that guy that will hit you and let you know that he's going to be there all game long basically he's like remember how during this season we talked so much about patrick chun playing sort of as a third linebacker he can do that as well now the question mark is he might be limited in that kind of role. Probably not a deep coverage guy. Probably not a guy you're playing,

you know, single high looks from. So his lack of versatility might be an issue for him, but still he's getting some day one buzz. And so I think the Patriots are definitely going to, if he's there at 32, he's a consideration, but he might not be there at 32. Again, getting some serious day one buzz. Next is Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the University of Florida. If you think back to when we had Michael Kiston to sort of break down the safeties, remember what he told us. He told us that you needed to definitely study two years of tape to get a sense of how he can be as a player because in 2017 you know you sort of saw him more as a down-in-the-box type of guy playing down near the line of scrimmage playing

man on bigger receivers support of the run handling underneath his own duties and then last year you saw him playing more as a deep safety playing some more cover one type stuff but he has the range and the ball tracking ability to make it work that's going to be very attractive to the new England Patriots. He can play both worlds. He's an extremely versatile player. He's got great versatility, some solid talent behind it, decent enough size, 5'11", 210, 30-7 eighths inch arms, 4.48 in the 40, sideline to sideline type stuff,

but the ability to play down in the box. I actually had that flipped. 2017 was the deep stuff. Last year was more the down in the box. I actually had that flip. 2017 was the deep stuff. Last year was more the down in the box stuff. But still, you're seeing it from him, that versatility. And finally, our top two, also two very versatile players. I like Juan Thornhill from Virginia. A lot of people kind of meh on him.

But I look at him and I see he's got the coverage skills to play corner. He's got the range and the ball hawking abilities to play a free safety type look. There's a potential comparison here to a Devin McCourty, a guy that has the coverage to move around all over the field, but he could really sort of play free safeties type stuff. And Lance Zernlein, for example, says he's a good enough cover type player where you could consider putting him at corner. That kind of versatility is going to be huge to Bill Belichick. And so while the league writ large or perhaps in a vacuum

might see Thornhill ranked lower than this, I think the Patriots will really value him highly. And so he wouldn't surprise me at all, say at 32 or, you know, if he slides into the second round, that pick is 56 or 64. Finally, my favorite safety in this class, Nasir Adderley from Delaware. Love him sideline to sideline. Love seeing him down at Mobile playing some cornerback-type stuff. He's aggressive in the box.

You can put him down in the box, and he can make plays there. He makes plays at the high safety spot as well. And so I like Nasir Adderley. But all of these guys have some stuff that they bring to the table i just think without the patriots value versatility we might see him sort of ranked in this order up next we're going to work our way through the rest of the nfc quarterback situations we will start in the north where there are some interesting questions to ask of a couple of different teams and then a little bit later the west where we have potentially at

some point some Russell Wilson news or some Russell Wilson decisions to be made. All ahead on this Wednesday installment of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Wednesday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast, and let's do some more quarterback stuff. Let's work our way through the NFC North and the NFC West. Again, these pieces will be going up over at Pro Football Weekly. Let's work our way through the North first

because we've got a big decision in the West that is looming. Maybe there will be news by the time this airs. Who knows? Let's start at the North with the Chicago Bears. Rostered quarterbacks Mitchell Drabisky, Chase Daniel, and Tyler Bray. And believe it or not, if you take sort of the 50,000-foot view of all of these quarterback rooms,

there is a case to be made. A case to be made. It's an arguable case. It is what we would call in the legal world a colorable case. That the Bears have the best quarterback position. Have the best quarterback room. The best quarterback situation.

And I know that probably sounds crazy at first blush but let's mitchell trubisky took a leap forward he still needs to take a couple more leaps forward but i expect that to happen under matt nagy and so yes this will sort of be year three for him i'm still viewing it as sort of year two and a half so i'm cautiously optimistic about trubisky and then behind him you have two guys that are experienced in managy system you know you've got chase dan you've got tyler bray and so i think they've got a nice situation then let's look at detroit i have matthew stafford connor cook and tom savage and Savage, not a lot there to write home about. These guys aren't inspiring. A ton of confidence behind them.

Now, I love Cook coming out. He was a player I valued highly. He was fourth for me in that 2016 draft behind Goff, Wentz, and Lynch. But he slid to the Raiders in the fourth round. He did start a playoff game, but there were three picks in that game. And then he was waved by the Raiders, bounced between the Bengles and the panthers before sign on future's reserve contact with the lions and savage well he was benched to make way for deshaun watson at halftime of week one in the 2017 season 2016 season excuse me no it's 2017 so neither of these guys are great but then there's stafford

now big money deal can still make incredible throws, can still deliver in some comeback situations, but he's got to take a step forward soon, and the organization needs to get him some help. They're a dark horse team to go quarterback in this draft. Now, they have Stafford in place, but they need a better option behind them, and so they might want to sort of grab an early developmental quarterback sometime late on day two or early day three to start

to grow. They don't need to replace Stafford right away, but the options behind them aren't great. And so I think they need to sort of hedge their bets a bit. Then there's the Green Bay Packers. And what I'm about to say might sound a little

crazy. But this week we saw the Packers' Britain drew Locke for a pre-draft meeting. And conventional wisdom would tell us that it would be probably crazy to draft a quarterback with one of their two first-round picks. That's Aaron Rodgers we're talking about. An elite quarterback, incredibly talented. But the thing with conventional wisdom is it's pretty conventional. Sometimes you've got to think a little bit.

And this has nothing to do with sort of Rodgers and the situation, the Bleacher Report, Ty Doon, it's just his story. But numbers. There is a growing contingent in sort of the fantasy analytics world that looks at Rodgers with a healthy bit of skepticism. There's a great piece Scott Barrett does good work for Pro Football Focus, looked at what he calls depth-adjusted completion percentage. It's a metric first unveiled by Mike Clay back in 2013.

And as Scott Barrett puts it, it provides more nuance than raw completion percentage it strips out throwaways batted passes and plays with the quarterback was hit at the time he released the throw it treats drops as completions and then measures this now adjusted completion percentage in contrast to the expected completion percentage for throws by distance and for example look tops in the league last year, Drew Brees. He had a completion percentage, this adjusted completion percentage of 83% against an expected completion percentage of 75, a jump of 8%. Rodgers, completion percentage, that adjusted completion percentage of 74.4

against an expected completion percentage of 73.2, an increase of just 1.2% over expectations. That's on par with quarterbacks such illustrious figures as Joe Flacco and Jameis Winston. And also, if you look at a tweet that Scott put out, his rank by depth-adjusted completion percentage, Aaron Rodgers, 2008, second, 2009, third, 2010, third, 2011, first, 2012, third, 2013, first, 2014, fifth, 2015, 25th, 2016, 15th, 2017, 8th, 2018, 22nd. And then there's Ben Baldwin, who does some work for The Athletic, does a very good job in terms of metrics and data analysis.

You know, he pointed out that Matt Ryan has been more efficient on a per-play basis than Rodgers over the past five years. Getting back to the point that Scott was just making. You know, you see that drop-off started in the 2015 season. And so there are some questions facing Rodgers right now.

Part of this might be due to scheme. Part of it might be due to scheme. But would it be the craziest thing to think that they would go quarterback at some point? I don't know. And behind him, look, you've got Deshaun Kaiser and Tim Boyle. I literally had to Google Tim Boyle. I'm a quarterback guy. I didn't know him.

So all I'm saying is I don't think we're anywhere near where we're going to be like, oh, it's time to cut bait on Aaron Rodgers. No, no, no, nothing like that. But just something to think about, just something to think about. Just something to keep in mind. They might be, might be looking at quarterback. Now, I think still, with respect to Rodgers, you give it like a year or two in the new system.

Hopefully, new system, everything clicks and Rodgers gets back to the Rodgers of form. But if we still see production like these numbers over the next year or two, you've got to think long and hard about it. That's all I'm saying. Finally, Minnesota Vikings. They've got two quarterbacks on the roster, Kirk Cousins and Kyle Slaughter.

Slaughter. I was on with the one and only Andy Carlson, and still don't know how to pronounce that guy's last name. Nobody does out in Minnesota, but let's put it this way. With Cousins, they got to roll with this one for better or worse. It's like a true marriage for better or worse. Cutting him prior to June 1st this year would create $60 million in dead cap and count against the cap to the tune of $60 million in dead cap and count against the cap and turn it to the tune of $31 million.

Now, if they move on him from prior to the 2020 season, that would create just $31 million in dead cap. They wouldn't have any cap savings. So probably for the next two years, he's their man. Now, behind him, they've got Slaughter, the guy from Northern Colorado, who has some arm strength to him, showed some good footwork in the pocket, but they need to start thinking about the future. And I know that sounds crazy. You just signed Kirk Cousins. But if Cousins doesn't work out over the next two years, you're going to want to have some sort of transition plan in place. And so I would

highly recommend that the Vikings draft a developmental guy. You've only got two quarterbacks anyway. Yeah, you've got to address the offensive line and things like that. But I think you might want to do this. Get a guy, a Ripon, a Gardner Minshew, somebody like that. Get them in. You've got three quarterbacks. You can practice squad one of these guys. Just hedge a bit.

That's all I'm saying. Up next, we'll do the NFC West. Russell Wilson, that situation is out there. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers. Jared Goff, do they do something crazy? The Rams? That's all ahead on this Wednesday installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this Wednesday installment

of the Locked on Patriots podcast. And let's quickly sort of roll through the NFC West quarterback situations. We'll start with the Cardinals. And again, rostered quarterbacks right now. Josh Rosen, Brett Hundley, Chad Kanoff. If it were me, that's your list. Roll into the season with those guys. Draft Nick Bosa first overall, and let's go.

Start building around Josh Rosen. Interestingly enough, this week, I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah said, you know, around the combine, his thought that Kyler Murray was first overall was like 90% done. He said that's dropped to 60. Who knows if that's, again, final two weeks, smokescreen type stuff, or if Murray has maybe fallen out of favor in Arizona. But that's going to be the big decision.

And I know some of you out there are kind of wondering, do we have to keep talking about this guy? I've gotten some DMs from some faithful listeners to the show wondering why we're still talking about this guy believe me i get it and it has been interesting to see murray's rise because remember doubt in the stands at mobile people talk telling me he might not be a first rounder then he sort of measures in at the magical 510 number and now he's first overall his height can't be that big of a swing. Maybe it truly was. And I know I talked about it a lot too, but his whole situation has

been strange. I think he, I still think Murray ends up going first overall, but it's interesting to see how things might be shifting. I would build around Rosen, but maybe they decide to go in a different direction. Now the Rams. Rams are interesting because they've got Jared Goff under contract for one more year with a team direction. Now the Rams. Rams are interesting because they've got

Jared Goff under contract for one more year with a team option for the 2020 season. Now that team option has sort of generated some sort of buzz in the football media world. Some people wondering if Sean McVay truly believes that it is his scheme more than anything else that has made the Rams offense successful. Maybe they're the first team to truly test the theory that rather than overpaying a rookie quarterback when he hits the end of his deal, if he's just kind of okay, you just draft another rookie. Has Jared Goff earned the big money extension? Maybe, maybe not. I mean, I think he has because, again, the draft, the evaluation process, it is an inspecific science. It is a flawed process.

You never know what you're going to get. It's not like – I mean, it's exactly like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're going to get. And so better to roll with the guy you have and pay him accordingly rather than take the chance on another quarterback. I mean, might Trevor Lawrence down the road be a better option? Perhaps. Might Tua be a better option down the road?

Perhaps. But perhaps not. And so it is something to think about. But I would still roll with Goff. I think. But that's a decision that the Rams have on the horizon. And there's the 49ers where I think I'm pretty much set. They've got three solid options.

They've got Garoppolo, they've got Beathard, and they've got Nick Mullins, who we've talked about on this show. Maybe he's a guy to trade for. And I think San Francisco might entertain the idea of trading the guy that loses that backup spot, that backup battle, that is probably going to unfold between Mullins and Beathard. And I talked about it when we talked about Mullins.

You know, Beathard's under contract through 2020. Mullins is just under contract for 2019. So a team looking to acquire a guy might say, give me the guy that's under contract for two years. So maybe Beathard would be the more attractive guy for a team looking to acquire somebody. But I think they're in a pretty good spot.

Then there's the Seattle Seahawks. Monday's self-imposed deadline has come and gone. Who knows what happens now? Now the situation becomes this. Apparently Russell Wilson wants a percentage of the team's cap. He's making the argument that look, because of legalized gambling and sports gambling and things like that, teams are going to be making more money down the road. So he wants a share of it.

Very interesting argument. Kind of a new angle on this. And maybe the team takes him up on that at some point. But they need to pay this guy. Because again, when you put quarterbacks into buckets, there's two that you can put them into. Quarterbacks that you win with, quarterbacks that you win with or quarterbacks that you win because of. And he's the quarterback you win because of.

So pay the man. He's worth it. By advanced metrics, by watching the film, whatever you want to look at, Russell Wilson is worth the money. So pay the man. That will do it for today's show. I will be back tomorrow.

We're going to do some more divisional stuff, some more quarterback situational discussion. Also, we're going to look at the offensive line. Perhaps a position of need, maybe more than we thought, say, two months ago. So we're going to look at some tackles and some guards. It's hard to rank offensive linemen just in a straight sort of vertical board.

So we might talk about a couple guards, talk about a couple of tackles, maybe talk about a center or two. Just cover our bases here in the Locked On Patriots podcast. And so that will do it for today's show. I will be back on Thursday to do that. And then Friday, we're going to have our Who Won This Week in Football as well as,

yes, drumroll please, some Game of Thrones discussion to close out the week. Just some. That's all ahead this week. Until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots.