Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - LOCKED ON PATRIOTS - Aug. 3, 2016 - The Patriots have enough cap space to keep every star free agent

Episode Date: August 3, 2016

Jeff Howe explains why the Patriots have no excuse not to re-sign impending free agents Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard, Malcolm Butler and a few others. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, where are you going, Jim? The elevator's over here. Taking the stairs. But our meeting's up on 8. Yeah, I know. But that's 8 floors up. That's like 8 times... I don't... a lot of stairs. That's the point. I've already lost a few pounds and earned almost $100 in wellness incentives. Whoa, you're getting rewarded for working out? Yeah, I know. I'm just as surprised as you are, Bob.

Fearless is full of surprises. That's the power of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Federal Employee Program. Learn more about our healthy benefits and sign up at fepblue.org slash choose blue by December 11th. What is up? This is Jeff Howe, Locked On Patriots, the very first edition of Locked On Patriots. We're going to bring you a daily podcast discussing all things New England Patriots. It's right in the name. It's very simple stuff. I want to get to, right off the bat, what is, in my opinion, the most important offseason storyline surrounding this 2016 Patriots team. Now, we had 544 days to discuss the most overblown storyline that's probably ever surrounded this team or any other team, i think on tom brady's 39th birthday i will take a pass on discussing deflategate and the quarterbacks only by mentioning it in the first minute of the first ever podcast but hey let's just forget about that for a second because there's more pressing issues

at least in terms of again the future of this team and that's the contract situations there are a boatload of guys who are going into their final year of their deal, and there's been a lot made of that, clearly, and I think there's a lot of concern, and with the way that Bill Belichick has discarded some of the most important players during his Patriots tenure, you look at the way that Ty Law's career ended with the Patriots, the way William McGinnis' career ended with the Patriots, those guys are both in town the last couple days in their Patriots Hall of Fame jackets. But this is a different situation, or at least it's shaping up to be a different situation. I don't know if these guys are all going to agree, but what I do know is Bill Belichick

and Nick Casario have set themselves up to retain their biggest stars. Dante Hightower, Jamie Collins, potentially Malcolm Butler, who's a restricted free agent, we'll get to him, because he's sort of in a different category, and Jabal Sheard. But I think you really have to start with the trio of Hightower, Collins, and Sheard. But before we get to that, we've got to get to the most important thing, the numbers. If the salary cap raises, once again, $10 million for the 2017 season, that puts the NFL cap at $165 million per team. Right now, the Patriots

have $103 million committed to the 2017 cap. That gives them $62 million in projected cap space. That is far and away the most cap space in the nfl two million dollars more than the next closest team and six million dollars more than the third the team with the third most money in the cardinals the team with the second most money is going to be the buccaneers so the patriots are basically going into a situation where they have to keep some of their best players and they're they're basically like the jaguars and the raiders have been the last couple of off seasons where they could just throw money around oh willy-nilly without any real regard of where it's going except the patriots do know where it's going

because they've drafted a heck of a group of players who are homegrown and you want to talk about the homegrown factor remember bill belichick last year the day the pro bowl rosters were announced how happy he was that guys like rob gronkowski, Malcolm Butler, Jamie Collins, Chandler Jones, who was still on the team, of course, at the time. He was very excited that those guys who were going to the Pro Bowl were homegrown New England Patriots. Matthew Slater, Steven Gostowski, Tom Brady. So he's proud of that. He likes to keep that stuff going remember you look at some of the big guys that i mentioned that he's let go ty law willie mcginnis belichick didn't draft

those guys and i'm not saying that he held those guys in in any less of regard i just think different stages of their careers and to this point handled their contract situation somewhat differently uh but i think we got to discuss the here and now because, again, it all comes back to the concern that I hear on a daily basis from the fan base in being able to keep everybody. And it kind of went up a notch again this weekend when Drew and Jason Rosenhaus were taking in a Patriots practice, walked off the field with Bill Belichick. And of course, I was able to report that they are discussing a potential new deal for Rob Gronkowski,

who has four years, $27 million remaining on his contract. Not a guy who definitely needs a raise. I think we can all agree he's underpaid. And there's a lot of ways to look at that. And I guess we're going to back it up one more time. When Rob Gronkowski signed that contract extension, ultimately it was a six-year, $54 million extension. That $54 million at the time was the most money ever given in total dollars over the course of a contract to a tight end. So he is a guy who, but you break up that deal in two parts.

Remember, just a little history lesson. The first part of that deal was going to make Rob Gronkowski a very well-paid man. And with some injury issues, at that point, they were in his past, his final season at Arizona. He was a guy who was going to bank, going to make a little bit of a signing bonus. He was going to be somewhat overpaid at the beginning of that deal. And then the last four years, kicking in 2016, when he got the finality of that $10 million roster bonus, he was going to be basically playing under team-friendly terms. But that was the give and take of it. But at this point, when you look at Travis Kelsey and Jordan Reed and Dwayne Allen, Rosenhaus orchestrated Dwayne Allen's deal with the Colts, he's now going to make about $29 million over the last four years of his deal.

So now you've got a guy in Rosenhaus who has put one of his clients, Rob Gronkowski, who is, a lot of people believe, on his way to potentially being the greatest tight end in history who is now going to make less money than duane allen over the final four years of his deal so i think this is just a situation where the patriots are potentially going to exercise some goodwill give drunk a raise and when you've got a player in gronk's caliber you kind of bend over backward a little bit for you extend yourself for him for him. You want to make him happy, and I think it sets the tone, especially when you've got enough money to go around. Now, does that bleed over into Julian Edelman, who is equally underpaid, or maybe more underpaid? Do they want to give him a raise?

The point is, I'm getting to these guys, because you can pay them all. You don't have to say, all right, well, if you give Gronk a raise, does that mean you can't keep Jamie Collins? No, it doesn't. The Patriots can keep everybody. Now, if you've been following along with my work over the last handful of months, and I guess more recently too, you know how I feel about this. The Patriots can pay everybody. They have the room. This is not really an issue. Now, we'll start with Dante Hightower. He's got a $7.799 million cap hit in 2016. He is, because he's playing under the 50-year option, the guy you kind of want to start with.

You want to lock him up because if you get him done early, and the Patriots have, I think, about $10 million in cap space in 2016, and that comes into play too. You can't really just go out and some of this has to be strategic. It has to be strategic. It has to be layered. You can't just give all the money away right now because the signing bonuses won't necessarily work. But you can get creative. You can start with Dante Hightower because if you give him the type of deal that I think he is looking at, then you can kick down that cap hit. You can

save a handful, a few million dollars. And that kind of opens room for a guy like Jamie Collins, who is, his cap hit is about $1.2 million in 2016. He's going to make less than a million dollars in cash. So you want to talk about underpaid. One of the most electric defensive players in the NFL, Jamie Collins is absolutely underpaid. But I think, now this is, this goes back to a lot of work I did in the offseason, or actually really last season, studying contracts,

trying to figure out what these guys are worth, trying to figure out fair deals in terms of signing them now, giving them the incentive to want to sign now and forego the possibility of really just getting stupid money if they get into the market in March. But you've got to be fair. You've got to come halfway, maybe a little more if you're the Patriots. So you look at Dante Hightower.

I think he's getting a deal at fair market rate. If, again, they sign right now, you look at five years, $51.25 million, $15 million guaranteed, give or take. So I think that's a fair deal then you go down to jamie collins four year 45 million dollar deal 21 million guaranteed that's a boatload of money for those two guys but they are there's no doubt about it in my opinion the defense is built around the success of those two there's no question that the patriots defense slipped considerably when those guys were off the field last year dante Hightower, I've seen people on Twitter say, well, Hightower is just a run guy. No, he is. He was the most valuable member of that defense last season. He's the guy who makes

it go. He calls the plays in the huddle. He lines guys up, gets the checks. Bill Belichick trusts him as much as anybody in that defense. He is terrific against the run, there's no question, but he's also good in the pass game. And you know what, he's no Jamie Collins in the pass game, but there are very few guys who are like that. Danny Trevathan for the Broncos, one of the best pass defense linebackers in the league. There aren't a lot of linebackers who can cover anybody. Dante Hightower can cover pretty well he's an above average coverage linebacker he knows where he's supposed to be he's come a long way if you say that Dante Hightower can't cover you're basically you're telling me you haven't watched the Patriots game since 2013 really because the guy can cover and you want to see

his value Malcolm Butler doesn't make that game-winning interception in the Super Bowl if Dante Hightower doesn't get past Russell Okung and tackle Marshawn Lynch at the one-yard line with a separated shoulder. So that's Dante Hightower. That's why you keep that guy around. Then you go to Jamie Collins. If he doesn't have that illness last year, that virus that hit him mid-season, he might have been the defensive player of the year. I actually wrote about a week or two before he got that illness, the Jamie Collins candidacy for the defensive player of the year i actually wrote about a week or two before he got that illness the jamie collins candidacy for the defensive player of the year award uh should have been he's i mean one of the two or three best players in the league at that point came back lost a ton of weight wasn't the same guy still played at a very high level so those are the two guys then you go down to jabal sheard who is going to be a very very interesting

player to watch this season. He was the Patriots' best run defensive line. He was the best defensive lineman against the run last season. And he was a heck of a pass rusher, too. He is, I think, looking at, now his deal is a little bit different. There aren't any great comps. But what I kind of narrowed it down to is you can probably get javale shared for three years and 20 million dollars now if shared goes to the open market if he wants to bank on himself and say hey you know what i i think i have the capability of getting 12 to 14 sacks in 2016 i want to bank on myself not getting hurt i want to go out as one of maybe the two three

four best pass rushers in the open market next year then all the power to him he's want to go out as one of maybe the two, three, four best pass rushers in the open market next year, then all the power to him. He's going to go out and he's going to make a ton of money and the Patriots probably aren't going to match it. But if you're the Patriots and you look at the comps like Ayers, a handful of other guys, you can say three years, $20 million makes you slightly more overpaid, or I shouldn't say overpaid. You're going to get a little bit more money in your deal as long as you make the guaranteed money work. If you're looking at maybe a little more than half of that, which is steep, but you're talking about trying to get it done, trying to keep that guy in your system for two, three, four more years.

I have it as a three-year deal. We know how those sometimes play out. A three-year deal could ultimately be a two-year deal before they rework it, but I digress. I think that's how you keep Sheard. Then you get down to Malcolm Butler, and Malcolm Butler is a fan favorite for a reason. There's a lot of interest in trying to keep Malcolm Butler, who is a restricted free agent after this season. Right now, he's on the books for $600,000. His rookie deal, because he was undrafted, was three years and I think $1.53 million. So he is a guy who he cannot retire after this deal. He has not made enough money to get to that point yet. He needs to go

out and get paid. But he is in a tough situation. I could do an entire show on Malcolm Butler's deal and maybe I will at some point. But if you're the Patriots, you kind of got to push him a little bit. You got to say, hey, you come to us. You are the one. The Patriots are in a situation with Butler. Now, they could pay him, and they could still pay Collins and Hightower and Sheard and give raises to Gronk and Edelman and go on down the line.

But I think the Patriots can afford to play hardball with Butler a little more. That's not anything he'd like to hear, but it's just a situation where they have so much control because he's a restricted free agent that they don't have to extend themselves early with him. You talk about goodwill, if they want to go to it, hey, fine. He's a good player. He's worth keeping around. And if you want to keep him happy, you don't want to let this thing drag out a couple of years from now, then fine, I get it. But hear me out on Butler's situation.

Because, again, $600,000 on the books for this year. That's cash and cap. So it's basically the same across the board. The Patriots can put a first-round tender on Butler after this season. So you're in the 2017 offseason. First-round tender is going to be worth a projected $3.9 million. Let's call it $4 million if you want. That's still extremely affordable. That is less than half of the amount of money that a number one quarterback would

normally make, especially if they were on the open market. Probably a third of Malcolm Butler's value if he was on the open market. So they put that first round tender on. They dare another team to really bowl him over with an offer sheet. The way the Patriots took Chris Hogan away from the Bills, they really bowled Chris Hogan over. The Bills weren't going to match that. They didn't have the cap space. Now, it's extremely rare, going back a decade and a half, maybe two full decades, since a team has forfeited a first round pick to sign a restricted free agent or a franchise tag player. So the chances of a team coming in at, let's say, $8 million a year on Malcolm Butler, knowing if the Patriots don't match that offer, they also have to give the New England Patriots a first round pick. I mean, just how difficult

would it be for a head coach, a GM, to go out and do that? Say, hey, you know what? Not only are we going to give this guy a ton of money, but we're going to give up a first round pick. And that first round pick goes to Bill Belichick. That's going to be tough to stomach. I think the Patriots have to put themselves in a position where they dare a team to go out and do that. Now, if a team does that, and the Patriots can take, let's say, a top 10, top 15, even a top 20 pick, Bill Belichick's history in the first round, you turn an undrafted guy into a potential top 20 pick, then I think you're still in a pretty good spot. Now, you're starting over a cornerback, but that gives you, I guess, the flexibility to kind of extend yourself for Logan

Ryan if you want to next offseason. You've got Cyrus Jones in the system now, who looks solid. Justin Coleman, I like, was an under-the-radar type of player last year. Darryl Roberts is a nice little player. We're going to see how he grows in his second year after an early IR stint last year. So again, it's a spot where I think the Patriots owe it to themselves to see if they can dare another team to potentially forfeit a first round pick before they decide whether or not to match and keep Malcolm Butler. And if they do, again, Malcolm Butler is not getting unrestricted free agent money next year. He's going to be, he's going to get below market value so the Patriots can can still play chicken with Butler with other teams and they can keep him in their system if they decide to match it for let's say four or five years

at I don't know six million dollars a year I mean that's a steal I think that's something where they let another team do the negotiations for them and I think they can get away with it I don't think Malcolm Butler is going to like it but it's just it just a tough spot for an undrafted player to be in, especially when his stardom has risen so dramatically. Very few players have been able to do what Malcolm Butler has done in such a short amount of time. So then you go down the line. I mentioned Logan Ryan.

Deron Harmon, right there with him. Those two guys are going to be unrestricted free agents. They're going to be tough to keep. The Patriots aren't going to have the money to keep them if they want to because, again, $62 million in cap space, that's going to get you a ton. You can get a whole lot of good players with that amount of money, even if you're giving a ton to Collins and Hightower and Sheard and, again, the potential raises to other guys.

You don't have to worry about money if you're the Patriots. The thing is, like I said, with Logan Ryan, you've got Cyrus Jones in the system. You've got Justin Coleman, potentially Daryl Roberts sticks around. So you're doing well. And you've got guys who, you know, Malcolm Butler, obviously who I believe is going to be around here for a while longer. You've got guys who are going to be underpaid. Now, Logan Ryan is going to go to the open market. And I think he's probably going to command. Now, let's say he has a great year. If he goes out and has the same year that he had last year,

I think he's going to get $6 million in average annual value on the open market. The Patriots are probably going to say, hey, you know what? Good work over the last four years. You deserve this money. All the power to you. And the Patriots will try to replace him. Jerron Harmon's a similar sort of guy. He's been a really good third safety for them,

has allowed them to play some three safety packages in the nickel that a lot of teams aren't afforded the ability to be able to do that. Especially, you know, that was big last year when they had so many issues at cornerback in terms of the injuries. They were able to play those nickel sets, which are so important now in the NFL, without having to test their cornerback depth too, too much. And that's a testament to, obviously, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung at the top of the depth chart, but also what Jerron Harmon was able to do as the third guy,

when you were able to especially move Devin McCourty closer to the line. Now, I don't know if Jordan Richards is that type of guy who's going to be able to come in and replicate what Harmon's been able to do, because Richards so far has been more of an in-the-box type of safety. He's not a free safety the way Harmon's been. But again, Harmon's going to be a guy who's going to go out there on the open market. I'd be very surprised if the Patriots kept him early and kept him from going to the open market unless things just completely go off the rails and fall apart with the guys above him, you know, the Hightower, Collins, Sheard, and so on. I just think Harmon is probably in position to go to the open market, get paid,

and the Patriots would give him a nice salute and say, thanks for all you've done over the last four years. Good for you. And then you kind of go down the line, there's the veterans. Rob Ninkovich, 32 years old, going to turn 33 in February. Chris Long, Terrence Knighton, we have no idea what we're going to see out of those two guys. They're coming off of tough years, and we'll see what they do in their first year of the system. They signed one year deals. So the Patriots are basically in this thing to see what they can do. And if they play well, you reassess next year. If you're the Patriots, you hope that they like that taste of winning

and they'll stick around. But who knows? Again, one-year deals, there are usually guys like that you can replace them with. Who knows? Maybe Chris Long goes out and has a career revival, gets eight sacks or something like that, and gets overpaid next year. Then I think the Patriots are happy with what they got out of that one-year deal. Ninkovich is a guy who he has admitted is closer to the end than the beginning.

He's in his 30s. He is a guy that I think, you know, maybe you test that loyalty and see if you can continue to bring him back on one or two year deals until he decides to do it right now because you get nervous about giving contract extensions a little too early to guys who are a couple years into their 30s. You just never know when the legs are going to go or when something like that happens. Now, Rob Nikovich has said proudly for the last few years that he is younger than his age because he missed those first few years in his NFL career because of knee injuries, because he was technically a long snapper. And then really when he came into New England in 2009, he was basically a backup until somewhere midway into the 2010 season.

And even in 2011, he was behind Andre Carter and Mark Anderson on the depth chart for most of the year. So he is younger than his age. He probably does have more tread on the tires than most 32-year-olds. And then there are a handful of other guys. Sebastian Vollmer is in his last year, the last year of his deal. Injury situations, ankle has been an issue for him for a couple years now. That's not going to get a whole lot better.

He hasn't practiced yet in training camp right now. He came to the Patriots last November hoping for a new deal, and they said no, they're going to hold off and wait to see how this thing kind of plays out, mostly because of his health. And we'll see what happens. Marcus Cannon's another guy who's in the last year of his deal. Absolutely no need to extend him.

He really needs to have a good summer, I should say, good training camp, because Adrian Waddell looks like a nice third tackle, a nice swing tackle. And depending on Vollmer's health, if Vollmer comes back, looks all right, Waddle plays well, Cannon finds himself on the roster bubble. So it's an interesting battle on the offensive line. That's an entirely different show. But, you know, really what I wanted to get across here is something that I've been trying to hammer home as much as possible. This is not a too-good-to- good to be true type of situation here the patriots are going to

have 62 million dollars in cap space you know give or take a few bucks in 2017 or at least the way that their contracts are constructed now if they start hammering away at some of these extensions then obviously that number changes but they have more than enough money to keep everybody in town and you just don't have to worry about okay if they pay gronk now does that mean they're going to lose Hightower? No, it doesn't. If they pay Hightower and Collins now, does that mean they can't afford Butler? No, it doesn't. They can keep all these guys. Bill Belichick has routinely been lauded around the league. Agents, GMs, head coaches, other players notice it. Bill Belichick is always a couple years ahead of everybody else. Ozzie Newsom said it to me very recently. Same exact thing.

It's almost become cliche, but it's genuine and it's true. Bill Belichick is great at staying ahead of the game, especially with these cap situations. Nick Casario is a very bright mind. He is a terrific general manager type. I know that might not be his technical title in New England, but you know that's what he is. He is the guy who is in charge of negotiating these contracts every now and then

yeah he taps in belichick or robert craft but nick acerio is the guy they have they have set themselves up for this stretch run this is probably the most crucial transition period of bill belichick's tenure as patriots head coach, just in terms of the way the contracts are unfolding. And it's no coincidence whatsoever that it's also the year that they have the most cap space they've ever had in Belichick's tenure. So the Patriots are set up. Bill Belichick knows this. He's got to feel good about this situation. Hey, you know what? I got to throw the disclaimer out there. Maybe these guys don't stay yeah but i i can't i can't make any predictions but what i can tell you and what i cannot stress enough is the patriots have more than enough money to keep all these guys so i think if you

are a patriots fan listening right now you've got to be confident that they can keep their stars and you shouldn't worry too too much about that this team is going to field one of the better defenses in the nfl this season they were top five defense most of the last year before the injuries really mounted up especially with hightower and collins they finished in the top 10 in every mate pretty much every major category most notably points and total yards and they're going to be right there again the patriots are going to keep these guys together at least the good majority of them the two stars hightower and Collins. There's no excuse for them not to keep them. So that's my first point. That's the first episode of Locked On Patriots. You can find me here

every day, Monday through Friday. I'm going to hit you with something 10, 15, 20 minutes. We'll have some fun with it. We'll submit some questions on Twitter. I've been covering this team since 2009. I know this team extremely well. I work at the Boston Herald. I was with Nesson before then. I grew up in this area. So, look, I'm your guy, and that's what I'm here for. I'm going to have some shows where I'm just going to solicit questions on Twitter.

I think we'll have some fun with that. And, hey, this is a brand-new project. This is the first time I've ever hosted a podcast. This is the first time I've ever done anything like this on my own. So let's have some fun with it. You can find me right here every single time, every day, Monday through Friday. And if you want to advertise, hit me up, jeff.howe at bostonherald.com. We'll get the wheels rolling on that. But again, we'll see you tomorrow. Stop. At MetroPCS, you get two free phones with twice as much memory. Really? Don't say bye to your memories. Switch to MetroPCS and get two free LG K20 Plus phones with 32 gigs when you switch two lines. MetroPCS. Wireless. Figured out.

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