Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots August 1, 2018 - What I'm Reading, Dolphins Over/Under, and the 2017 Draft Revisited

Episode Date: August 1, 2018

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Hello everybody, welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Wednesday, August 1st, 2018. Mark Schofield is back in the big chair for this Wednesday installment of your favorite daily Patriots podcast. Feels good to say that we are in August because it really feels like football is right around the corner and it legitimately is. Tomorrow night, Hall of Fame game, Bears, Ravens. Check out vividseeds.com. Use that promo code LOCKEDON if you want to get tickets to that game or any other. Loaded show for you today. Before we get into that, reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work over at InsideThePylon.com where I'm one of the lead writers.

Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio. MattWaldmanRSP.com where I'm a contributor over there. You can check out the work over at Big Blue View. The SB Nation New York Giants website. Work over at Steelers Depot. Work over at ProfootballWeekly.com. Work coming your way

from the score. Excited to be a featured NFL contributor over there. Going to be everywhere this summer, going to be everywhere this fall, but the place you know me best is right here as your host of Locked On Patriots. Like I said, loaded show for you today. Patriots did not practice on Tuesday. They got the day off thanks in part to rookie offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn. fielded a punt at the end of the Patriots' season ticket holders practice. So what we're going to do, we're going to do Dolphins over under. We're going to do the 2017 Patriots draft, but first, a little what I'm reading. As I told you guys, this is going to be a little segment

that I'll pull out every once in a while where I talk about some stuff that I'm reading, some articles that I came across that I thought, hey, you know, this is pretty good. You know, this gets me thinking. This gets my brain working. You know, maybe the listeners of the Locked On Patriots podcast would like to check this piece out as well. And we're going to start with a piece over at InsideThePylon.com by Joseph Ferriola.

I've talked about Joey a little bit. Big, you know, hugely, hugely, hugely proud of my boy Joey. He's going to be working out over for NFL Next Gen Stats come this football season, moving out to LA, just graduated college. Super excited for him. Super proud of him. He's got a piece up on InsideThePylon.com titled Todd Gurley, Measuring Risk and restructuring the running back market. And it's a fascinating piece. And one of the things I love about the football media world right now is that there's so much great information out there. So many people doing such different, diverse work all over the place.

Things like salary caps, things like mortality rates at the running back position, all of which Joey gets into. These are things that I don't truly digest and understand well. I mean, I can break down X's and O's. That's what you guys know me for. I can break down quarterbacks. That's what you guys know me for. But this piece by Joey is fantastic, talking about the Todd Gurley contract

and how teams might sort of revisit structuring deals with running backs. And he sort of makes the comparison, you know, at one point between Le'Veon Bell using what he calls a mortality table approach, basically saying that, look, because of the fact that running backs start to trail in effectiveness around, say, year 29, you've got to really maximize your value when you draft or sign a running back before year 29. It's a very, very fascinating piece.

He also gets into the fact that the Gurley deal, he calls it an innovative four-year, $57.5 million extension with a $21.95 million fully guaranteed up front. And Joey makes the case that it's magnificently structured for both the team and the player leaving everybody pleased. Because there's a lot of money sort of up front. And Gurley gets $12.2 million more than the $37.3 million he would have earned by playing out his rookie contract for two more seasons and then being franchised for the following two seasons, sort of the Le'Veon Bell model. But the Rams are also protected. The

guaranteed Gurley salary bonus is after the third day of the league year in 2019 and 2020, should he succumb to an injury or drop off in talent. Cut on him before the third day of the new league year in 2019 would essentially make the deal a one-year $21.95 million deal. And he goes on to say that unless some drastic decline to Gurley's performance happens within the next four seasons, the team is best out to avoid dead money as in 2022 when designating Gurley as a post-June 1st cut

would result in just $4.2 million in dead money and $10 million in savings. So basically, the Rams pay more up front now and have him for two extra seasons instead of letting him go in the midst of his prime. But should the deal not pan out? Well, they at least had a plan in place. And the strategy was sound,

maximizing value up front and trying to get as much as they can out of him before you get to that 28, 29-year range where you start to see running backs start to decline. And so it's a fascinating piece. I strongly recommend that you check that out. Another piece I'm reading right now, Danny Kelly over at the Renner. Love Danny.

He was on this show to break down Super Bowl XLIX and revisit that game. He has a piece over at the Renner right now, the X factors for all 32 NFL teams. And I just want to – we'll just stay in the AFC East. Again, I'm not going to go through all 32 teams. But the Jets, he makes the case that it's Terrell Pryor. We do have question marks about the Jets and their offensive production, the offensive, the skill positions. He had, Pryor had off-season ankle surgery, which is limited what he can do early on in training camp. But as Danny Kelly describes him, he's a player with a scintillating combination of size and speed.

And when you look at the rest of this Jets roster, you wonder about the wide receiver position. Robbie Anderson, a nice piece. Quincy Inouye coming back from injury. Pryor could be a guy that you develop him along with Sam Donald. And that might be your combination for the next couple of years with the New York Jets. Looking at the Buffalo Bills,

Vontae Davis. That's who Danny Kelly identifies as the X Factor. They seem to have got it right with Tredavious White. He was a player that when we scouted him at inside the pylon for our draft guide,

we weren't really high on, but White seems to be their lockdown number one corner for the foreseeable future but with EJ Gaines and Sharice Wright moving on that number two cornerback spot that's up for grabs can Vontae Davis lock that down can he be the guy across from Tredavious White as Danny says it's been two years since that former Colts cornerback has looked anything like an elite cover corner. He's been battling injury. He has to prove he's fully healthy. Lost most of last year to a groin injury. But if he can get back to form, that could be a very good secondary in Buffalo. Maybe better than people expect, but that's the big if there. For the Dolphins, Danny identifies defensive end Robert Quinn,

a guy that had 19 sacks in 2013, but he's had a series of injuries. His career seems to have stalled since then. Now he's moving back to a 4-3 defense, which is going to put him back on the edge with his hands in the dirt instead of playing in a two-point stance off the ball a little bit more. He's just 28. If he can get back to, say, 10 sacks, 11 sacks, if he can stay healthy, that would make for a nice little group up front for the Miami Dolphins.

We're going to talk about them a little bit more looking at their over-under. But if you look at Robert Quinn across from Cameron Wake, if you can get 9, 10, 11 sacks out of Quinn, obviously Cameron Wake's going to put up some numbers. That's not too bad. That's not a bad one-two punch for the Miami Dolphins. And finally, the X-factor that Danny Kelly identifies for the New England Patriots, Philip Dorsett. And we've talked a lot, and we're going to talk more, I'm sure, about the wide receiver room. But with Edelman facing the suspension, Cooks and Amendola out,

somebody, as Danny says, is going to have to step up. They're going to seemingly move Dorsett inside to the slot. That's according to what we've been hearing. Kevin Duffy, for example, put out a tweet saying that they look at Dorsett as an inside wide receiver, at least so far in training camp. That was a tweet from early in training camp. Somebody's going to have to lock down that slot position at least until Edwin comes back and maybe beyond. And with Jordan Matthews' battle and injuries, we talked about him in yesterday's show.

Dorsett, he ran a 6.73 cone at the combine, which gets you into those pivot routes, those whip routes, those little routes that Welker ran, working down to Amendola and Edelman, maybe Dorsett can use that as well, while still busting out some deep stuff from the slot, every once in a while,

could he be the X guy? Could he be the go-to guy in this offense? That remains to be seen. But if he ends up that way, that could be a nice little boost to this Patriots offense. So those are some things I'm reading right now. Up next, we're going to talk those Miami Dolphins. We just teased them out a little bit. They're over under.

Could they be the sleeper team in this division? Well, if there's going to be a sleeper team in this division, it would have to be by default, basically, the Miami Dolphins when you look at where the Jets are, where the Bills are. So we'll talk about that in a little bit. But first, exercise. Getting back into shape. Getting yourself ready for the season ahead.

That's what training camp's about. That's also what NordicTrack is about. I know. I know, I've been there. Sometimes it's sometimes so hard to just work up the energy just to get to the gym, let alone get your workout started. And every once in a while you think, man, if I could just do this at home. Let NordicTrack help you. They have a series of training equipment to give you amazing workouts in the convenience of your own home, including treadmills, bikes, incline trainers. And the thing I'm excited about most, their Fusion CTS series. It's their strength training series, high intensity

strength meets cardio. You've all seen those workouts where, oh, look, it sounds so great. You can combine your cardio with your strength training, but then you end up being that guy at the gym who's taking up 15 different stations. You've got the bench going, you've got a dumbbell bench going, you're doing curls in the squat rack and everybody wants to throw dumbbells at you because you're driving everybody insane. Now you don't have to worry about that with their Fusion CTS series. You can join high energy streamed workouts any time of the day without stepping out the door. Seriously, how cool is this? You could start your day with a run through the streets of Paris. You can end with cross training on the shores of Thailand. You could be working out in an African safari. That just sounds amazing. And better yet, these workouts, they're led by the world's

top personal trainers to ensure that you meet your fitness goals. They've got a special offer for Locked On Patriots listeners. You can get $75 off your NordicTrack purchase by visiting nordictrack.com slash locked on. Use that offer code locked on. Again, visit n-o-r-d-i-c-t-r-a-c-k dot com slash locked on. Again, nordictrack.com slash locked on. Use the offer code locked on when you check out to save $75 off your purchase. Get yourself back into game shape now with our friends at NordicTrack. Up next, the Miami Dolphins, perhaps the sleeper team.

We'll talk there over under next here at Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now here for this Wednesday installment of Locked On Patriots. Before we dive into the Dolphins and their over-under. Two quick little bits of business here. First, a reminder to get your questions in at Mark Schofield on Twitter, mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com for the Friday listener mailbag show, which is going to be, again, like I said, live from the beach. Me, the family out at Ocean City. Hopefully, fingers crossed that there's not going to be thunderstorms out there,

but we'll see. We'll do it as we go. In the immortal words of Mr. Bill O'Reilly, we'll do it live. Also, call to action. Now that we're getting back close to the season, it's time to get the numbers a little boost, my friends. So if you could, please,

when you see the tweets go out for the shows, a lot of you do this anyway, and I truly truly appreciate each and every one share them around tell your friends tell your loved ones stop people on the street

strangers leave notes on cars and parking lots whatever you got to do to help spread the word about the Locked On Patriots podcast would love to really roll into the season

start the season strong the numbers are getting a big boost now we are getting close here into August which is always fun to see had some big days the here into August, which is always fun to see. Had some big days the past couple of weeks, which is always great to see. But again, you know, help me help you.

You know, the more people know, the more we do the show, the more guests we have on and stuff like that, we are going to be getting back into guests. We've kind of been light on the guests this summer because people are traveling and stuff. We've got some good guests coming up as we get into preseason games and stuff like that. Speaking of stuff like that, the Miami Dolphins.

And they're over under as we look ahead to the 2018-2019 season. Dolphins coming off a bit of a lost year for them. They lose Ryan Tannehill early in training camp. They end up rolling out with Jay Cutler, who's now a reality show star more than anything else. They finished with six wins last year, but now Tannehill's back. Six and a half wins is the over-under. And let's just say this, strength of schedule-wise, you know my thoughts on that. Tied for 15th toughest schedule. You

know, they're playing a slate of teams that finished 500 last year. So there's that. And then when you look at their schedule, I really like the way it sets up for them. Home opener against Tennessee. They go at New York to the Jets. Then they play the Raiders at home. Always tough when those West Coast teams come east for a 1 o'clock start. Then in weeks 4 and 5, they have their only back-to-back road set of road

games the entire season, where they go to New England at the end of September. As a Patriots fan, though, it always frustrates me when the Dolphins, you know, get New England at home, say, in December. I always loved those days. You know, I think of, you know, Teddy Bruschi picking off Jay Feed there, you know, sliding his knees into the end zone for that pick six, fans throwing snowballs. I love those Miami games when they had to come to Foxborough in December, but we won't get that this year. But anyway, my point, week four and five, Miami goes to New England and then to Cincinnati, and that's it.

That's their only back-to-back, way-away stretch of the entire season. Then they get two games at home, the Bears and the Lions, respectively. They'll get a Thursday nighter against Houston. That's at Houston, so that might be a little tough turnaround. But again, you know, with the Lions at home, they get a home game, and, you know, it's a 1 o'clock start, so they can get rested and ready to go. Then they host the Jets week 9 at Green Bay. That will obviously be a tough one, you know, week 10.

Then a bye. Then they come out of the bye, they go at Indianapolis will obviously be a tough one week 10. Then a bye. Then they come out of the bye. They go at Indianapolis, home against the Bills, home against the Pats. Tough 15 and 16 stretch. They go to Minnesota, home against Jacksonville. That might be overall their toughest two-game stretch. And then they finish the season at Buffalo, so they still get a December game sort of in that colder climate

and the environments at New Era Field up in Buffalo. But that's probably, at least on paper with the way it sets up, I think it's a pretty favorable schedule. And you think, you know, could the Eaks seven wins out of this? Well, you know, I think depending on what the Bills look like at the end, you know, give them at least one game against the Bills, one game against the Jets. I think they could sweep both of those, to be honest. But let's just say they win three out of the four. How about that? Then you're looking for four more wins on the schedule.

Well, I think you could look at that Indianapolis game as a win. I think that Bears game at home could be a win. I think that Lions game at home could be a win. That's six right there. Then you're looking for maybe one more. Oakland, again, that West Coast team coming east, that could be a win. That home game right there. And you're looking for maybe one more. Oakland, again, that West Coast team coming east, that could be a win. That home game against Tennessee,

maybe they eke out a win there. And that Jacksonville one's probably pretty tough. That game against Cincinnati, in Cincinnati, that could be a win there too. And so I think that this schedule sets up favorably. When you look at this roster as well, I like the addition of Makin Fitzpatrick in the first round to help them in the defensive backfield.

They get Wakewon McMillan back after he suffered a knee injury early last year. We talked about Robert Quinn. This could be a fairly decent or decent enough defense. And then you get Ryan Tannehill back. The addition of Damian Amendola. That gives you Kenny Stills, Devontae Parker, Danny Amendola. Those are some pretty nice pieces. Don't sleep on a guy like Edward Wilson.

Don't sleep on a guy like Isaiah Ford, who was their seventh round pick in 2017. A guy out of Virginia Tech. A lot of people really sort of like him. I know Matt Waldman likes him a lot. Apparently he's off to a really good start in camp. They added two tight ends. Mike Giusecchi, more of your move tight end. Durham Smythe, more of your inline blocking tight end.

And they add Frank Gore, you know, with Kenyon Drake and Kalen Balazs behind him. This could be a decent enough offense. So when I look at that over-under of six and a half, I'm taking the over. I think Miami could surprise this year. And so do I think they make a run for the division? Probably not. Do I think they make a run at a wild card? Maybe they're in the mix until the end of the season.

But I wouldn't sleep on the Miami Dolphins. That's all I'm saying. So there's your look at the Dolphins over-unders. Up next, we're going to look at the 2017 New England Patriots draft. Again, we're now into that time frame where when we start looking back, we start thinking about, oh, should they have done this? Should they have done that? It's still really, really early to tell. I mean, when you look at some of the guys they added in the draft,

only added four players. This was a really thin draft. So there's not a lot to talk about there. One of the guys we haven't really even seen take the field yet. So a lot remains to be seen. But we'll talk about that next here with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now. To close out the show, we're going to talk about the 2017 Patriots draft.

This was the draft Patriots draft. This was the draft before last season. And as we've done a couple of times when we've been revisiting these draft classes, it's important to sort of take a look at the overall kind of, you know, the big picture. You know, the Patriots only had four picks in the 2017 draft. And part of the reason is this, a number of trades. For example, March 8th of 2017, the Patriots obtained tight end Dwayne Allen in a sixth round selection and sent a fourth round selection to the Indianapolis Colts. So there goes a fourth rounder. March 10th, they sent their second round selection to the Carolina Panthers for defensive end Coney Ealy and a third round selection. Yeah, so that happened.

March 10th, also, the Patriots were involved in another trade. They sent their first round selection and a third round selection to the Saints for Brandon Cooks and a fourth round selection. So that happened as well. And Cooks was a big time contributor until the Patriots lost him early in Super Bowl 52, which made a big difference in that game, I think.

April 29th, another trade. Patriots trade him early in Super Bowl 52, which made a big difference in that game, I think. April 29th, another trade. Patriots trade a fifth-round selection to Kansas City for tight end James O'Shaughnessy and a sixth-round selection. And the picks they end up making in the 2017 NFL draft. Their first pick was not until the third round. Pick 83 overall, Derek Rivers, offensive line, excuse me, outside linebacker from Youngstown State, who obviously they lost to an injury.

He was lost all last season. And two picks later, they picked Antonio Garcia, an offensive tackle from Troy, who people really liked. You don't, you gotta understand here. Down at the Senior Bowl, that Senior Bowl, people loved this kid. People in the stands, other draft people,

they really, really, really liked this kid. People in the stands, other draft people, they really, really, really liked this kid. And it just, obviously he had the Lunt issue, it just didn't pan out. The Blood Clot issue didn't pan out. The Patriots have moved on from him already. Fourth round pick, pick 131, Dietrich Wise.

Defensive end from Arkansas. And finally in the sixth round, pick a 2-11 overall offensive tackle, Connor McDermott, out of UCLA, who was waived by the Patriots, didn't make the team out of camp.

So again, it's important to look at the big picture here. The Brandon Cooks trade, the Coney Ealy trade, which didn't really help. Dwayne Allen trade, James O'Shaughnessy trade. There are other trades as well where there was a trade with the Lions that allowed them to acquire Kyle Van Noy.

Another trade that allowed them to receive Michael Williams, Barkevius Mingo, all sorts of moves that they made. So, they only had the four picks. What they did with them still really remains to be seen. Dietrich Wise was

a nice contributor for a time. Looks to be a big part of this defensive line going forward. We'll see what they get out of Rivers. A lot of people, myself included, are very hopeful for what Rivers can contribute this year. I guess if you're going to ding a pick even though, again, people really liked him.

Antonio Garcia was drafted a pick 85. A pick 86. The very next selection Kareem Hunt running back from Toledo. I mean if nothing else, he wouldn't have run all over the Patriots on opening night.

So there was at least that. But again, it does remain to be seen how things are going to turn out with the rest of this draft class. You also have to remember that a lot of trades and things like that were made to give it the full context, the full picture. But that's kind of a quick look back at the 2017 draft class.

That will do it for the Wednesday show. We're going to do on Thursday some quick timeline takes, some Pat stuff at the outset, try to recap some news and notes from that Wednesday practice with the Patriots, get back to work. We're going to do what you've all perhaps been waiting for, the Patriots over and under. We've done all 31 teams.

Wow, the 32 minus one really gave me a hang up there. Oh, it's been a long day. We've done 31. We're on the cusp. We're going to do the final team of our over-under series. You're going to look at the Patriots, their schedule, their over-under. Shocker, you might expect I'm probably going to hit the over here. We'll do that.

We'll look at, since we're going to finish off the series, we'll look at the 2018 Patriots draft class again. Now that we've got a feel for some of these guys, maybe we can at least have some projections and things like that. And then remember, get your questions in at Mark Schofield on Twitter, mark.schofield, that's insidethepylon.com, for your Friday listener mailbag show. Again, that's going to be live from the beach.

Maybe you'll hear the sounds of waves crashing in the background as your boy delivers on his promise to get back to five days a week. It was a struggle there. Let's be honest. It was a struggle to get through that, you know, late June, early July timeframe.

We're talking about movies and stuff, but we're back to football and it feels good. Until next time, everybody, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots.