Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots August 13, 2018 - Brady's Deal, and Roster Projections 1.0

Episode Date: August 13, 2018

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Hello and welcome to Locked on Patriots for Monday, August 13th, 2018. Mark Schofield back in the big chair to kick off this week long of episodes here over at Locked on Patriots, your favorite daily Patriots podcast. Hope you all had a wonderful weekend. If you're anything like me, chances are you spent at least a little bit of it watching Tiger Woods at the PGA Championship come close, finishing second to Brooks Koepka in a fantastic, fantastic Sunday of golf. Reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield.

Check out the work over at InsideThePylon.com, where I'm one of the head writers. Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, MattWaldmanRSP.com, TheScore.com where I'm doing some scheme work, Pro Football Weekly, and a host of other football websites. If they're writing about it, chances are I'm writing for them. Big show for you today. I'm going to take my first crack at a 53-man roster projection.

This isn't something I usually do. I'm taking my first crack at a 53-man roster projection. This isn't something I usually do. I'm taking my first crack at it. We'll revisit this over the course of training camp. I figured, look, we got one preseason game in the books. We got to look at some of these guys, answered some questions as we talked about on Friday's show, so we might as well take a stab at it. But first, we're going to talk Tom Brady. We got two areas to get into, one that probably interests only me and the other that I think interests everybody. We'll deal with the important one first, and that's Tom Brady's restructured contract. We talked a little bit about it on Friday.

Tom Brady reworking his contract over the Thursday-Friday time frame. The way it kind of works, and I've been spending some time trying to research it because it's important to drill down its cap implications. And whenever I bring up cap, I talk Pat's cap. Obviously, somebody you need to follow on Twitter, at Pat's cap. Also, Brian Phillips over at Pat's Pulpit. He's been doing some work on this, too. He's been on the show before.

Both of those guys have good friends of the show. He is at Bphillips underscore SB on Twitter. Follow both those guys. They've both been doing some work on this, and I've been reading along with their work and trying to piece it together because there is a question mark with respect to some of the details to his new deal. Let's go over the base aspects of it. Tom Brady's salary contract has been reworked. His revised deal has five $1 million triggers for the 2018 season. All of them require him to finish in the top five

in a specific statistical category. Top five in quarterback rating, top five in completion percentage, top five in yards per attempt, top five in touchdown passes, and top five in passing yards. Each incentive becomes a $2 million incentive if the Patriots win the Super Bowl capped at $5 million,

which is interesting because, okay, he has a minimum of 224 attempts, 70% of playing time. And that can get Brady to $5 million two-way. Either hit all five incentives or hit three of them and win the Super Bowl. That's from Pat's gap, Miguel Benson on Twitter. Now, in addition, according to Field Yates, as part of his reworked deal, Tom Brady had $10 million of his $14 million base salary converted into a sign-in bonus. That means Brady gets the $10 million guaranteed right now, cash in hand. But his cap number for the year does not increase at all as part of the new deal with a catch.

And that's what we're going to talk about here. Incentive-based clauses in contracts can come in two different ways. Likely to be earned and not likely to be earned. Likely to be earned classifications count against the team's cap. Meaning if you classify Brady's incentive-laden aspects to this reworked deal as likely to be earned, those would count with respect to the salary cap. Reducing the team's cap space by $5 million,

dropping it down from about $7.4 million, $7,450,255. That's their current space right now. How do I know that? Miguel Benzon at Pat's Cap. His handle is always updated with a to-the-minute salary cap. So if it's classified as a likely-to-be-earned incentive, that $5 million that he's potentially going to get is used to reduce their salary cap to $2.4 million.

And as Miguel points out in an article over at Boston Sports Journal, that $2.4 million is not enough to operate for the rest of the season. They would have to make other moves. Now, Miguel makes the argument that these would be classified as not likely to be earned, which would not count towards the Patriots' cap, leaving it at that $7.4 million number. And he goes through a couple of reasons why. For example, the CBA does not mention player incentives that are dependent on finishing in the top five in the statistical category, but it does mention team incentives.

And quoted from the CBA, any incentive bonus that is based upon the team achieving a particular ranking and its performance relative either to other teams in the league or to other teams in its conference automatically will be deemed not likely to be earned if it sets a ranking level equal to or higher than fifth from the top of the league or third from the top of the conference, respectively. Miguel's point number one, since that's how they handle team incentives, player incentives should be handled the same way. Miguel's point number two, because they use that top five rather than a specific number, say 30 touchdown passes or 90% completion percentage or whatever you want to say, the language

there should track with how the CBA handles team incentives, bringing us to that previous point. Third point Miguel raises, whenever an incentive consists of multiple triggers, all of which must be classified, likely to be earned for the incentive to be classified, likely to be earned. Remember the incentive to be classified, likely to be earned. Remember, this has two potential hurdles here. Top five, but it can escalate if they win a Super Bowl. Therefore, tying a Super Bowl victory

to the others makes the whole thing not likely to be earned. Because a Super Bowl win, even though it's the Patriots, can't classify that as likely to be earned. But that's sort of Miguel's framing of it. Brian Phillips over Pat's pulpit has a different read of it. Brian sort of looks at it and says,

because Brady was a top five player in each of those quarterbacking categories in 2017 therefore the argument could be made that the full five million would be classified as likely to be earned therefore counted against the cap figure so there is some confusion there's also some confusion over whether the Super Bowl thing, that aspect would qualify as likely to be earned or not likely to be earned. And I think that we could

fit that under the not likely to be earned category. And that brings me to my conclusion, which is in line sort of with Miguel's, which is, you know, a reading of all of this stuff leads me to believe that because there's that double clause there, it tracks more that all of this would be deemed not likely to be earned, therefore keeping the Patriots where they are. And plus, you know, try not to put my lawyer hat on too much here, but you can sort of look at what we like to call the legislative intent here,

not to get too wonky, but given the team incentive language in the CBA, I think it sort of tracks that player incentives would be treated the same way. So I'm inclined to believe Miguel here, but it is tricky. We're kind of getting in the weeds, but it does matter because as Miguel points out on his piece over at Boston Sports Journal, the $2.4 million is definitely not enough to operate the rest of the season.

The Patriots currently have in-season operating expenses that can range anywhere from $13 million to $18 million. You've got the 10-man practice squad. You've got to pay for players 52 and 53, which is about a million dollars. You have to have a cushion for the $3 million and not likely to be earned

46-man active roster bonuses that could be earned by 18 different players. You can sometimes extend players during the season. A cushion to replace injured players injured during the preseason and regular season. Which that total is somewhere between 4 and 6 million. Now there is some wiggle room.

There are some players such as David Jones, Shane Wyman, Nate Thieker. They're reaching injury settlements that will lower the cap space number. But it's still tricky, which also points to the fact that the Patriots would want to make sure that these incentives would be classified not likely to be achieved, not likely to be earned, excuse me. Therefore, keeping them at that $7.4 million. So it's tricky. It's wonky.

That's kind of where I'm coming out on it. I know. We just spent 10 minutes talking about dry contract stuff to kick off a Monday. I know you're super excited. So let's do something super nerdy for a second. Tom Brady was wearing a new helmet at practice on Sunday. Usually he's wearing sort of the old school, you know, one piece type thing. He was spotted at practice on Sunday wearing the new style helmet that has that extra sort of cutout piece right in the front of

the forehead. I don't know. I'm a nerdy quarterback guy. Helmets, face masks, all that stuff always excites me. Seen Tom Brady wearing a new helmet. That's kind of cool. So check that out. There are pictures of it on the Twitter timeline as well. Up next, we're going to start my roster projections 1.0. We're going to do offense first. We're going to do defense first. Before that, I'm going to double check my math here and make sure I add it up to 53.

That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back on this Monday installment of Locked On Patriots and roster Schofield back on this Monday installment of Locked On Patriots and roster projections 1.0. Again, an exercise I didn't do last year, partly because I came aboard, believe it or not, right before the regular season started.

So things were kind of set in stone when your boy came aboard here. So training camp, summertime, this has all been new. We've been rolling through it together and doing the best we can, going day by day, taking it one day at a time, that kind of thing. But let's dive into it. We're going to start on the offensive side of the ball. We'll start at quarterback. And right now I'm sitting here.

Brady and Hoyer, I think, are the only guys that really make the roster here. Etlin has an outside shot at a practice squad. I'd be surprised if the Patriots kept three quarterbacks. I'd be surprised if they kept Etlin. I think it's a situation where you've got your two guys. You see if you can sneak Edlin back on the practice squad. Ideally, he performs well enough that you want to do that. But if, God forbid, an injury suffered to Tom Brady,

I think they'd explore a move then. But right now, this has the makings of a team that, because of numbers crunches at other spots, they're going to keep two guys and free up an extra roster, so out that way. Running back is a big question mark. There are going to be some guys, talented guys on the outside looking in. Right now, I see them keeping four.

Burkhead, White, Sonny Michel, excuse me, keeping five. Keeping five. So Burkhead, White, Sonny Michel, Jeremy Hill, who I think we all can agree played extremely well in their preseason opener, and James Devlin, who we're going to return to in a second. So I have them keeping five. That means guys on the outside looking in. Brandon Bolden, which is somewhat of a surprise.

Patriots really trust him in terms of blocking things like that special teams but I think because of the numbers involved here Bolden's going to be on the outside looking in Mike Gillisley is going to be on the outside looking in Henry Pogge is going to be on the outside looking in and Ralph Webb unless he really sort of keeps balling out over the next couple of weeks here it's going to be tough given the numbers that the Patriots have to see them keep in Ralph Webb dark horse kind of weeks here. It's going to be tough given the numbers that the Patriots have to see them keep in

Ralph Webb. Dark horse kind of scenario here. Burkhead suffered. Didn't practice on Sunday. Obviously didn't play. Maybe there's an injury way where they work Webb in. And you look at maybe

another dark horse scenario, James White. Could the Patriots walk from James White? I'd be hard-pressed to believe that right now, but that's something to watch going forward. So right now, I have them keeping five running backs. We're going to return to James Devlin here in a second when we look at tight ends. I think they keep the three, Gronkowski, Hollister, and Dwayne Allen.

The one sort of tricky thing to remember here, this is pointed out by Phil Perry. He did a similar exercise. I was seeing how other people were approaching this while doing my own work here. Perry points out the fact that Devlin works with the tight ends. You can see a scenario that because of Devlin's work with the tight ends in practice, they might go thin at tight end. They might get rid of Allen.

They keep your two sort of do-it-all type end types, Rob Gronkowski and Jacob Hollister. And then you look at maybe using James Devlin as a block and tight end at times. It's just something to think about. You know, if they get into a number crunch situation at another position or even a running back, you know, and they think, look, we want to have an extra running back, move on from Allen. We've got our two tight ends at Gronkowski and Hollister.

We can use James Devlin as an emergency tight end if need be. Just something to think about. Wide receiver. I get into a bit of a numbers crunch because of a decision I make here, which is a Homer, you know, ride my hill till I die type decision. You know where I'm going with this. But obviously the Julian Adams suspension helps them in terms of numbers at the start. I have them keeping six.

Chris Hogan, Philip Dorsett, Kenny Britt, Cordell Patterson, Matthew Slater for his special teams work, and yes, Braxton Berrios. I'm sneaking them in here right now. This is the first time I'm doing this. I might have to give up the ghost at some point. But I do think that, you know, Hogan, Dorsett, Britt, Patterson, and Slater are probably your locks.

That sixth spot until Edelman comes back, you could see it being Decker. I could see it being Devin Luce and how he played last Thursday night. Riley McCarron maybe has the edge over Braxton Berrios in terms of what he can contribute on special teams.

Right now, I'm going Braxton Berrios until I see reason to do otherwise because I'm a homer and it's my show. Offensive line, I have them keep an eight, kind of the eight that people would assume. Your starting five as it sits right now, Trent Brown, Joe Dooney, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Marcus Cannon, Adrian Waddle, your swing tackle, Isaiah Wynn, your swing guard slash swing tackle. And I went between three different guys, Ted Karras, Matt Tobin, and James Ferencz as that eighth guy. Giving the nod to Ted Karras right now because of his versatility. Ferencz is a guy to watch there.

I liked what Matt Tobin did on Thursday night, some of the stuff he did. Pulling in front of the guys, some of the mobility he showed when they ran toss with him in front. He showed the athleticism to get on the edge. Different than Trent Brown. Trent Brown, obviously, a bigger-bodied left tackle. But I really sort of, I went back and forth between those three guys. I went with Ted Karras at the end. So those are my offensive guys.

24 on the offensiveas at the end. So those are my offensive guys. 24 on the offensive side of the ball. Now we've got three special teamers as well as the rest of the defensive guys and that's ahead. Next with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots.

Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this Monday installment of Locked On Patriots. Now I'm going to look at my defensive projections for the 53-man roster, my first projection of the 2018 preseason. Let's start in the interior defensive line. I think two guys, obviously, are locks, Malcolm Brown, Danny Shelton. After that, you know, there are a couple of different ways you could go on this defensive line. You know, the guys I came back to, Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler,

I think those are probably the two most likely to get themselves a roster spot when you're looking at the interior defensive line. Vince Valentine maybe has the outside shot at the next spot, but I think these are the four you could be most confident

in. Frank Heron, John Atkins, probably not seeing roster spots going to those guys. Let's kick it outside and look at the edge, guys. This one pains me. It almost came down to Berrios or the guy that I just left off here. I wanted to go

five, but because I snuck Berrios in a wide receiver, again get into that numbers game situation, I only went with four. The four I went with, Trey Flowers, Adrian Claiborne, Derek Rivers, Dietrich Wise. You know, leaving Eric Lee, Eugenio Grissom, Keontae Davis on the outside looking in. The fifth I wanted to get in, this is a bit of a shocker perhaps,

is Trent Harris, who really impressed me on Thursday night. If he has another good game, you know, he's somebody that I really would like to see them sort of sneak in. He's somebody I'm definitely going to keep an eye on over the rest of training camp and into the rest of the preseason games we've got here for New England. Let's kick it to that second level. Been a huge focus of consternation, of concern, of debate. How are the Patriots going to get athletic at that second level?

Are they going to be athletic enough? Our boy Taylor Kyles believes they will be. Are these six players going to be the ones to do it? Dante Hightower, Kyle Van Nooy, Landon Roberts, Jawan Bentley, Christian Sam, Marquise Flowers. Those are the guys I have in there right now. One, two, three, four, five, six. Six linebackers. I like Flowers because of his athleticism. Remember, they used him to spy on guys like Marcus Mariota. I think that speaks to him. Juwan Bentley balled out Thursday night.

He's really turned some heads with the way he played Thursday night and the way he's been throughout camp. So I think he's played himself into a position where he'd be on this roster. Does he get to a point where Landon Roberts becomes sort of redundant? I'm not sure yet, but maybe. There are some guys in that athletic linebacker slash special teams type range that you could lump together. Nicholas Grigsby, Harvey Laney, Brandon Ken and Christian Sam.

I'm leaning with Sam because, again, I like his athleticism. I think he's going to be able to contribute on social teams. He did some nice things on Thursday night, so I'm going with him. And obviously, look, Dante Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, I think are everybody's top two linebackers on this team.

So I think that's pretty safe. Now, could that change? Of course. Am I probably high on Christian Sam? Maybe, but that's kind of where I'm putting it right now. Let's go to the defensive backfield, starting with the cornerbacks.

I'm keeping one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. I want it to go eight. Again, numbers get to be tough when you get into these last couple of spots here. The guy I left off was Keon Cross, and I had him in, made an adjustment at the last second, leaving him off. Let's get into it, though. Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe, Jason McCourty, Duke Dawson,

Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson, and Jamal Wiltz. Wiltz is probably the more stunning name to be seen included here. He worked himself in with the starters leading into preseason game one. So I think he's a guy that somehow might stick. Obviously, Stephon Gilmore's a lock. Eric Rowe's a lock. And then it gets to be a little bit dicey after some of these guys. I think Jason McCourty, because of experience,

is going to get himself onto this roster. Duke Dawson, you take a second-round pick. I think he's going to find his way on here. They like Jonathan Jones. I like some of what Jonathan Jones did last year. So I think he's going to find a way on. And then the last two guys, Jackson and Wiltz, both of those guys have been getting some buzz here in the preseason.

So I'm going to take a flyer on those two guys. Again, first roster projection. Maybe these guys stick. Maybe not. We'll see. Finally, safeties. I think they rolled a five. They love multiple safety looks.

They love three safety looks. So they're going to go deep there. Patrick Chun, Devin McCourty, De'Ron Harmon, Nate Ebner, more of a special teams guy. And yes, everybody's favorite, Jordan Richards. Yeah, we're going to roll with him one more season, it looks like. Maybe even more, but at least one more season. Guys on the outside looking in, Eddie Pleasant, Demarius Travis.

I don't think people were expecting much from those guys. Travis had a really bad series, at least, against Washington, getting beat on a cover two situation and giving up a touchdown pass. Again, I hope he wore his black or white shirt to film review on Friday. That's your defense, your look at the defensive guys. Then finally, special teamers. Can't forget those guys, your specialists, Ryan Allen, Stephen Kostkowski, Joe Cardona, your punter, your place kicker,

your lawn snapper. Am I right? Probably not. We can almost guarantee that I won't be because I've got a couple of different names in there. I've looked around. A lot of people had different names out there. And that's fine. It's fun to talk about this stuff.

That's why I have a show. That's why you tune in. And thank you so much for tuning in. It means the world that you do. Reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Again, check out the work over at insidethepylon.com, Matt Watson's RSP, The Score, and a variety of other places. And please, please, please keep, keep, keep sharing around the show. I love it when you guys do it on Twitter and elsewhere. Also, before we go,

I do want to mention something that I mentioned a little bit last year. I mentioned it a lot last year actually. And I want to remind everybody of it. If you're in the Baltimore area and you're looking for a place to go to watch these games, head to Dog Watch Tavern down in Fells Point. There's a great group of

people that get together to watch Pat's games. There's just a phenomenal group of people. They've got a Facebook group, Baltimore Patriots fans on Facebook. They get together at Dog Watch, like I said, down on Fells Point for every single game. They get the upstairs to themselves.

They were tremendous in welcoming my parents and who now go there as often as they can to watch Patriots games. It's a fantastic environment. It's like being at Gillette. So if you're in the Baltimore area and you're looking for a place to get together, watch the games. Feel like you're with some Pats fans. Check them out. Dog Watch Tavern, every Patriots game.

Tell them I sent you. Tell them Mark Schofield with the Locked On Patriots podcast sent you. Again, it's a fantastic experience. I'm hoping to get there at least for one game, maybe a couple of games this season. Fingers crossed on that. I'll have to have the notepads out to do work during the games because remember, it's a work

day for me when it's game day. But again, I do it for the love. And I love you guys and I love dropping the knowledge as best as I can. So check them out. Again, Dog Watch Tavern, Baltimore Patriots fans. That will do it for today's show. I will be back tomorrow.

Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Mark Domping. Thank you.