Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots August 21, 2018 - Roster Projections 2.0 and AFC East QB Landscape

Episode Date: August 21, 2018

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We'll be right back. A reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, where I'm one of the head writers. Pro Football Weekly, where I'm going to be the official Mitchell Trubisky, Matt Nagy, Viewfinder for Bears fans over there. The Score, where I'm doing a ton of scheme work. Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio at MattWaldmanRSP. And Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation Network, covering the quarterbacks for the New York Giants. Huge show for you today. It is Roster Projections 2.0 day here at Locked On Patriots.

And a little later, I'm going to get into what is perhaps one of the more fascinating storylines unfolding here early in this 2018 NFL season. And that is the quarterbacks in the AFC East. Obviously, the Patriots are set right now. Obviously, the Dolphins are set right now. But we've got some interesting short-term and long-term stories that I'm going to touch on at the end of today's show. Let's dive into it now.

Roster projections 2.0. I did 1.0 last week after that game against Washington. Now with two preseason games in the books, I figure it was a good time to do preseason roster projections 2.0. Let's start with the quarterback room. While there are changes in a number of positions, there's no change here. Tom Brady, surprise, surprise, makes the team. He was going to be close.

I think he gets in there. And Brian Hoyer, your backup quarterback. I don't think Danny Etlin has done enough yet to sort of warrant a roster spot. I think Etlin is more your, you know, they try to sneak him back onto the practice squad type of situation. But I'd be surprised if he makes the team. And so there you go.

Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer kicking it off. At the running back group, we do have some changes here. Part of it due to injury. Rex Burkhead dealing with the knee. He's still in. James White, we saw what he can bring to this offense on Thursday against the Eagles. He's obviously in. Sonny Michel, yeah, he's got the knee.

He's still in. Jeremy White didn't play as much the Eagles. He's obviously in. Sonny Michel, yeah, he's got the knee. He's still in. Jeremy White didn't play as much against Philadelphia. He's in. James Devlin, he's in. Those guys are the same. The new addition, the new change, drumroll please. Shout out to my boy Murph at TMURPH207. Brandon Bolden is back.

And I do want to talk about that for a minute here because running back is a room where we're getting a lot of questions now i do a number of you know national and international shows i'm on for example sportsnet 650 every thursday out in vancouver with my boys sat and john you can check that out at sportsnet650.ca I'm on there every Thursday at 1 in the afternoon on the East Coast time and they asked me when I was on with them last Thursday about this Patriots running back run I was on WGR up in Buffalo over the weekend with my buddy Nate Geary, Nate and I used to do

the Intentional Scouting Podcast he was asking me about injuries particularly this running back run and of course Captain Huggyface asked me about it over the weekend as well. And so I think because of the injuries that's even more of a reason for a guy like Brandon

Bullen to make this team. Because you look at Rex Burkett they're going to use him as a slot type, receiver type guy. Yeah he'll get some carries and some touches but he does a lot in the pass game. You look at Sonny Michel more of an all around type back. Now let's look at two guys that might be fighting for a running back spot. Mike Gillislee and Brandon Bolden.

Which guy could replace those two guys, given their injuries? It's much more likely to be a Brandon Bolden, who can give you some stuff in the pass game, who can give you some stuff in pass protection, but can also carry the ball between the tackles. He's more of your well-rounded, versatile type running back. That, plus his special teams ability, what he brings to the table in terms of special teams, I think it makes a ton of sense now. I think it probably made sense before.

Maybe I wasn't the smartest guy in the room when I left Brandon Bolden off. But I think now when you look at it, dealing with the injuries in the running back group, dealing with all the other stuff, Bolden, I think, now gets his way onto the roster. So the year six running backs as I have them right now, roster projection 2.0, Rex Burkhead, James White, Sonny Michelle, Jeremy Hill, James Devlin, and yes, Brandon Bolden. Let's go tight ends next with a bit of a change and perhaps a bit of a surprise. Although, if you listened to yesterday's show, I hope you did.

If not, and you're new, welcome aboard. Glad to have you here. Tell a friend. Tell a friend that you love this new podcast you've found. Subscribe, rate, review, all that good stuff. But if you listened to yesterday's show, you know that our friend Ricky from Staten Island, at Rickinator on Twitter, asked about surprise cuts,

and I threw out Dwayne Allen. And I think it makes a lot of sense. And there are so many ways that you can glean intentions from a scout, from an organization, from a coaching staff. And one of the ways is listen to the press conferences. Josh Norris, for example, over at R rotoworld does a great series after each draft you know recapping team press conferences give you some insight as how they expect rookies to be used another way is watch practice and i think it was mark daniels maybe it was doug kyed some people have made

the point that james devlin works with the tight ends in practice. And so if you're looking to perhaps double up for a guy's responsibilities, you're looking at this tight end room right now. Dwayne Allen is a blocking tight end. Well, would it be beyond the realm of possibility

where Bill Belichick looks at a James Devlin and says, when we go jumbo in the red zone, we might move you from fullback to tight end. Maybe they do some other packages. Maybe they go more single back in the red zone. They can do that because Devlin has the versatility to do that. They're using him that way in practice. It gives you an inkling as to what they might do going forward.

And so I look at this tight end group. I think if you've got to make difficult decisions in other spots, maybe you go with just Gronk and you go with just Jacob Hollister. You could use Devlin as a blocking tight end. Now maybe they try to restructure Dwayne Allen. Maybe they try to get some cap relief from him. Right now, $5 million. So that's something to watch.

But for right now, roster projections 2.0 from what we've seen duane allen odd man out in that tight end room let's look at this offensive line group got eight guys again but it's a different set of eight names part of that trickle down effect we've been talking about with isaiah wind your starters up front left to right trent brown at left tackle joe dooney at left guard david ands at center, Shaq Mason at right guard, and Marcus Cannon at your right tackle spot, although he's been banned up here this preseason. As a result, Adrian Waddell, now your swing tackle type guy. So he's in.

Now you're going to need some guys on the inside. You're going to need a guy that can snap, so Ted Karras might get in. And the Patriots might try to be lean and go with just seven. That worries me a little bit. Because let's remember, protecting Tom Brady is job one. And so, I think having

seven offensive linemen, you could see a scenario where two guys get banged up, then you're worried about another injury in game. And so I think they go with three depth guys of the offensive line room. So Adrian Waddle is in as your swing tackle. Ted Karras, center slash guard type guy. And Matt Tobin, who's been doing some stuff at guard for the Patriots, he's done a little bit of tackle from what I remember,

unless my eyes have been lying to me. And so I think those might be your three sort of depth guys at the offensive line and that's your offensive line group so there's eight offensive linemen giving us 24 offensive players we had 24 offensive players last time and i just realized i just skipped a position we're gonna talk wide receivers don't we let's keep it quick let's keep it tight and i'll give up the ghost at the outset, Braxton Berrios. It's hard for me to make the case right now that he's earned himself a roster spot. And so we're going.

Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, Kenny Britt, Cordell Patterson, Riley McCarron, and Matthew Slater. And just quickly to note, watch Matthew Slater. I'm not going there yet. But with Cordell Patterson and some of what he can do as a gunner, Slater's a guy to watch if we get into some number crunches at other spots

and the Patriots want to go a little bit leaner at wide receiver. Just putting that bug in your ear for a little bit later. I'm not going there yet. Just something to think about. There you go. There are your 24 offensive players

I've got here in Roster Projections 2.0. Up next, the defensive players. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield, back with you now, and we are going to go defense now. Defensive

side of the ball, Roster Projections 2.0. Let's get into it. Interior defensive line, no changes. In version 1.0, our four, Malcolm Brown, Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler. Those are the same four I'm rolling with right now. I like that core group. I like that interior defensive line. I

think they're going to be a big factor in how this defense generates pressure. We've all been talking about pass rush. I really like this group. Let's kick it to the edge where there is a change. Last time we went with four. I'm kicking it up. I'm going with five because I got to get this guy in. So last time we had Trey Flowers, Adrian Claiborne, Derek Rivers, and Dietrich Wise. I think those guys are locks. The question might be, do they

add a fifth? And if so, whom? Whomst? I kicked around the idea of Trent Harris because I was very impressed with him with what he did against Washington. But that was last week. That was 1.0. 2.0 is all about Keonta Davis, who I think has played himself very much into the mix for this edge group. And I'm all about getting a guy like that on the roster I think he's shown that he can get you pressure when they rush for he can get you pressure when they blitz you can do some stuff

off the edge and so he's in for now and I hope he stays there let's go to the second level here no changes from last week although I did give some a lot of thought. Dante Hightower is in. Kyle Van Nooy is in. I think those two are locks. I think the next surest thing is Jawan Bentley. Now, he was more of a... I mean, I remember when I did the show when the Patriots drafted

him. I was like, wow, man. A bit of a head scratcher. I barely even remember seeing him down in Mobile. But Belichick seems to like him. Four-year starter. You know that carries some weight with Belichick. So with how he's played to this point, I think he's probably the third strongest case at linebacker here

after Hightower, after Van Noy. I keep Alandon Roberts on as linebacker four here. That's a name to watch. If Bentley keeps playing the way he does. That's a name to watch. If Bentley keeps playing the way he does, that's something to watch there. The other two guys, Marquise Flowers and Christian Sam, these guys might be fighting for a roster spot together too because they're both more that athletic type linebacker.

I've been stressing and angsting. That's not really a word, but I'm using it because I like the word angsty. That's how I describe my son sometimes. Anyways, I've been angsty about athleticism at the second level. I think Christian Sam can bring that. We know Marquise Flowers can bring that.

I'm keeping both those guys on for now. That may change going forward, but for now we're keeping them there. Let's get to the corners. Seven corners and roster projections 1.0. We have seven corners again. The first two, I think, are locks.

Gilmore and Rowe. If Stephon Gilmore or Eric Rowe doesn't make this team, it's an eat the tweet kind of moment. I will eat the tweet. The tweet that came out with roster projection 2.0, I will literally print it out and eat it if those guys don't make the roster.

I just made an eat the tweet to promise, bet, pledge. It was my first ever. Monumentous moment for all of you listeners. You should mark this down in your calendars. After that, it gets a little tricky. I'm keeping Jason McCourty on for now. I know he got beat for a touchdown against Philadelphia, and it looked bad. It came on a zero blitz situation. I talked about that in the semi-glorious victory show last Friday. I'm keeping him here for now, but it might be getting a more tenuous grip on that spot for Jason McCourty.

I think Duke Dawson is in. Jonathan Jones, I know he's been battling injury, but the Patriots like him. I like him. I'm keeping him here for now. J.C. Jackson, I'm keeping him in. And the final switch, and this might be a little bit of a surprise given what we saw last week.

Jamal Wiltz is out. Keon Crossan is in. And I know that's going to get some puzzled looks. But I think there's something with this kid. I think the Patriots like him. They wanted to play him early. And he made some mistakes. Look, he lost contain.

He lost the edge on one play. He had two penalties in the red zone. One on a defensive pass interference. One on a defensive hold and type play. But he battled. That fourth down knockdown, he battled throughout this game. He de-cleated

Dallas Goddard on a play along the sideline. When you're a corner, it's similar to playing quarterback. When you make mistakes, you've got to have that short-term memory to just forget it and move on. And he showed that. He showed that sort of competitive toughness you need at the cornerback spot. So I'm making the case for the kid.

I'm going to vouch for him. I think he's had his ups and downs. But, look, when you're talking about cornerback six or seven on a roster a roster i'm gonna go with a young kid that's shown me some potential there i know look jamal willis has as well but i'm leading i'm making the flip here i'm going from wilts to crossing now that could change but for right now where we are roster projections 2.0 that's where i'm going finally the safety room and it's a bit of a move that I think might earn me some applause

with certain sections of Patriots Nation now I know the guys that are in Chun, McCourty Harmon, Ebner those guys are in now in roster projections 1.0,

Jordan Richards was in. He's out. We're going with four safeties. Now, that might be unlikely. Patriots love multiple safety packages. And if you just go in with your three safeties, Nate Ebner is the special teams guy. Patriots might not do that.

So this might be a Mark move and not a Belichick move. Belichick probably finds a way to keep five safeties. Or, and this is another thing to watch, similar to Matthew Slater. You know, I was on Locked On NFL with Matt Williamson on Monday's show. And he brought up the point, and it's a great one. Special teams only type guys might be on the outside looking in, given some of the

other number battles that the Patriots have at different position groups. So a guy like Matthew Slater, a guy like Nate Ebner might face a struggle. So if the Patriots do keep just four safeties, it's probably going to look more like Chun, McCourty, Harmon, and then Richards or Pleasant than it would, you know,

Chun, McCourty, Harmon, and Ebner. That's what I'm going Chun, McCourty, Harmon, and Ebner right now. That probably changes. But for now, it means those of you that are on the, please, what are we doing with Jordan Richards type train? You get to celebrate at least for one week. Up next, I'm going to talk AFC East quarterbacks. But before I do, as I mentioned, locked on NFL draft.

I mean, excuse me, locked on NFL with the great Matt Williams. It is a fantastic, fantastic, fantastic show. Matt's doing great work over there. He's turning that into sort of a locked on cavalcade of experts. He's going to have local listeners, local hosts such as myself or other guys. Like I was on with the same episode as Lauren Cox from Locked On Bears. They're doing fantastic stuff. That's going to be every Monday.

He's going to have Mike Renner from Pro Football Focus, Mike Sando from ESPN, some fantastic guests each week. So definitely check out Locked On NFL with the great Matt Williamson at WilliamsonNFL on Twitter. Up next, I'm going to close out the show talking AFC East quarterbacks. Some fantastic, fantastic, fantastic storylines playing out this early preseason. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now.

I'm going to quickly close out this show with some storyline type stuff on the AFC East quarterback battles. And I put battles in quotes because there's really only two spots where there's a battle shaping up. Let's deal with teams that don't have short-term issues at the quarterback spot. They've got long-term issues. Obviously, near and dear to most of the hearts of those listening to this show,

Locked on Patriots, is the New England Patriots quarterback battle. Quarterback group. Tom Brady is the starter until he decides not to be. That's the short term. The long term is, who is next? Whomst is next? I don't think that quarterback is on this roster.

I think it's likely that quarterback is going to be playing college this year. You know, I talked about Jared Stidham. Maybe he's that guy. I don't know. Brett Rippin. Guys I think could fit with New England. Easton Stick. Could you imagine if in the NFL we had two starting quarterbacks

that were on the same team, North Dakota State University, an FCS program? I'm just throwing that out there. But for the Patriots, it's a long-term thing. For the Dolphins, it's more of a long-term thing. They've got to figure out what they're going to do with Ryan Tannehill. But given what we've seen from them and how they've handled Tannehill, I think they're still in on the Tannehill experience, despite what other people

might say on Twitter like Miko Grimes and others. Miko's a great follow on Twitter. You've got to follow her. But those are the two teams that it's more of a long-term situation, so we don't have to talk about that as much. We've got teams with some short-term issues here, But they're issues I think of a pleasantly surprising variety for both of these teams. With the New York Jets,

I thought that the way they structured their quarterback room was brilliant. I give them a ton of credit for how they handled it. You bring Josh McCown back, coming off a career year for him. It was a career year for him. It was a good year for him. You bring in Teddy Ridgebrother, low-risk, high-reward type thing thing coming off of his knee injury. And I think they've done a really good job getting him in a position where people are saying he could win the starting job. That's a very good thing for them because of them drafting Sam Darnold and being able to potentially start him week one.

And so that's a fascinating storyline storyline and people have been spending a lot of time talking about it there's talk of you know shopping you know teddy bridgewater which i do think makes a lot of sense there was a tweet over the weekend which i read that talked about shopping sam darnell which it would it was a head scratcher it was a head scratcher i was a little confused you know when you trade up to third overall, when you look at the fact that, as pointed out by the great Dave Archibald, that if you trade Sam Donald, it's a $24 million cap hit. So it's a head-scratcher.

I get that it would be against the grain and unconventional, but sometimes things are against the grain and unconventional because they're certifiably insane. But enough about that. I had to get that out for a minute, and some of you probably understand why. But it's a fascinating quarterback room right now. Sitting here right now, I still think the preference is for Donald

to sit and watch at the outset. He's shown some great development. If you want to see it, I did a quick Twitter video. It's now been turned into an article over the Matt Waldman rookie scouting portfolio on just one play from his week two game against Washington where he's got slant flat to the right. He thinks it's a two-eye safety. Look right at the snap.

The safety comes screaming down to cover one of those. They rotate it to man coverage. He instantly sees it, snaps his head to the left, throws a slant on third down low, but right where you want it to be. And for those of you that say, oh, that was a low throw, read an NFL playbook because I was reading a Brian Billick Ravens playbook from the late 90s. And when he was on each throw, each slant route play, keep it as low as necessary. That's how they coach this stuff. And so he put it exactly where it needs to be.

Just a fantastic throw. So I still think while he's made some improvements, however, Sam Darnold probably sits at the start. So that does make you wonder, do they move Teddy Bridgewater? I bet you there are a lot of teams out there that would love Teddy Bridgewater, given how he's playing right now. He's been playing extremely well. So that's a fascinating storyline. And then up north a bit, in Buffalo, I was amazed over the weekend.

I was on Buffalo. I was on WGR with out that, you know, it was dating back to the draft. When the, you know, when the Bills drafted. Or when they were going to draft. When they were looking at drafting. Josh Allen. And it was just a fascinating, fascinating, fascinating tweet because you saw exactly the progression,

how it would pan out, how it might pan out, and we're seeing it now. Mike Catalano, who is at M-I-K-E-C-A-T-A-L-A-N-A. He's the Fox Rochester sports director and a Bills Tonight host. He put out a tweet on May 7th. Bills fans Josh Allen timeline. February, intrigued by potential. March, worried Bills will trade for him.

April, panicked Bills will trade for him. April 26th, livid Billsvid bills drafted him may seen positive video clips august 1st wowed by arm strength august 15th demanded allen starts he nailed it and that was a tweet dated may 7th he nailed it because that's where we are. Bills fans, as I said, I was up on WGR. They are clamoring for Josh Allen. And I will say, as somebody that was very much on the Josh Allen is QB5 and needs to sort of sit and wait train, I have been pleasantly surprised with his development to date. He still looks at everything like it needs a fastball.

He still looks at everything like it, you know, hammer nail type situation. But, but, he's looked better. I've been pleasantly surprised. Now,

would I start him week one? I still wouldn't. I think the injury to AJ McCarron, the collarbone injury, does throw a wrench in it somewhat. We know what we get with Nathan Peterman. Solid, yet unspectacular, right? I think with Josh Allen, you get that upside.

And that's what's got Bills fans so excited right now. Is that upside? Is the upside enough? Well, what's interesting about Allen is he does have two traits that have been impressive and perhaps one of them even more impressive than we expected. The arm has always been the arm. That's been there since day one. And we're seeing his first throw against Carolina

in his first preseason action nearly threw it out the stadium. He nearly threw it out the stadium. It didn't stay in the field of play. But he nearly threw it out the stadium. But we see his touchdown. It was a rocket against cover two. We saw it again.

Some of his high-velocity throws against Cleveland. But what's been interesting is the athleticism. We knew he was athletic. I'm surprised how athletic he's shown out to be. Beating defenders to the edge. Outrunning defenders to the edge. Keeping plays alive while keeping his eyes downfield.

That's been surprising. So, if he does start week one, and I'm not ready to say he should, but if he does, he does have two traits in his athleticism and in his arm that are going to bail him out of some situations. Now they're going to get him into some trouble as well. But that might be enough with what he's shown that it wouldn't be a complete disaster. My only thing is, gets us to the idea of how we open this segment,

short-term versus long-term. Short-term, he might be the best quarterback on the roster, but is it wise for his long-term development for Josh Allen to start week one? That's the ultimate question because when the Bills made these moves to draft him number seven overall, they didn't make it to win games week one of the 2018 season. They made it to win games for the next eight to ten years with him. So they have to handle it right. Fascinating to watch unfold. That will do it for today's show.

I will be back tomorrow. Remember, if you want to be part of the experience, part of the Locked On podcast phenomenon, as it were, 240-670-6016. Call or text anytime, day or night. I would love to hear from you. And I'd love to hear from you to give me something to talk about on tomorrow's

show. But I'll be here either way. Until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patrons.