Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 1, 2017 - Bills Gameday Edition

Episode Date: December 1, 2017

Mark Schofield has your gameday edition, with his expectations for Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you in the big chair. Friday, December 1st, we've made it to December, kicking off the final month of 2017 and capping off an incredible week here at the Locked On Patriots Podcast. Biggest week we've had at the podcast since I've been doing it. Tremendous thank you to the listeners for everything you've done for the show. And what a week it was. We start off with a glorious victory episode. Patriots with another win over the Miami Dolphins. We do a

little tape Tuesday show recapping some of the stuff we saw on tape from that victory over the Miami Dolphins. Wednesday show, a huge one. Noah Princiotti comes on. Just crushed it. Just a tremendous, tremendous interview

with her. Again, make sure you're following her on Twitter. Make sure you do check out that article she wrote in last Sunday's Boston Globe about the Solder family. Just a tremendous article. We'll definitely have Nora back. Yesterday, for Thursday's show, we had the crossover episode with Kevin Masseri

from Locked On Bills. Great guest. Kevin knows that team inside and out. I learned a ton. I hope you did too. And now we get to Friday, our game day show. What we're going to do today, I'm going to talk for a little bit about one matchup,

one sort of area of focus I'm looking for here at the outset, and then we'll do what we usually do, what I'm looking for when the Patriots have the ball, what I'm looking for when the Bills have the ball, what I'm looking for when the Bills have the ball, and then sort of my final predictions and thoughts on Sunday. But let's sort of start with a matchup that I'm interested in watching. And there are a number of interesting matchups up and down the board, I think, to keep an eye on during this game.

You know, if you get Jerry Hughes and Shaq Lawson against Nate Solder and Adrian Waddell, if he can go, or Cameron Fleming, those defensive ends against the Patriots, right and left tackles, that's going to be a matchup to watch. Charles Clay against Patrick Chun, I'd imagine that Patrick Chun is going to get

sort of first crack at covering Charles Clay, who's sort of their go-to guy, Tyrod Taylor's favorite target. Something to watch there. But the matchup I'm most interested in watching is going to be Tom Brady against Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Now, those are safeties for the Buffalo Bills, and here's the reason why.

Bills play a lot more zone coverage than man coverage. According to PFF, this is an article from a couple weeks ago, but in terms of man coverage, Buffalo had only played man coverage on 31% of their snaps. It was only 19th most

in the league. So they're primarily more of a zone team. You know, quarterback's job in those zone coverage looks, identify where the safeties are, read the coverage, recognize the coverage, and make the right decision with the football.

So that's going to be the matchup that I'm watching that might really sort of determine how this game goes. Can Tom Brady re-diagnose and react to that Buffalo Bills secondary? Because you know they're going to try to throw some zone coverage, some complex coverage looks at them. They're not just going to sit back there and drop into cover three like it's a game on Friday night between Waltham and Everett.

They're going to roll some coverages. They're going to do some different things from a coverage standpoint that the Patriots are going to have to be ready for, that Tom Brady is going to have to re-diagnose and react to on the fly. So I'd expect to see things that we've talked about on the show.

I'd expect to see motion shifting, motion into stack slots, doing the things that can help Tom Brady diagnose the defense so he's not having to figure it out as he's dropping back I'd expect to see a lot of dual passing concepts

at times maybe seeing one concept to one side of the field that's a similar concept or even a different concept to the other side of the field that way you can be sure you've built in a route concept that will have success against different types of zone coverage looks. Because there are plays that don't always work against cover two or don't always work

against cover three. And I thought to sort of jump off for a second, Carson Wentz did a great job at sort of talking about that this week. Philadelphia Eagles headed out to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. And we all know Seahawks primarily a cover one, cover three team. They got that Seattle cover three where they put the cornerbacks and sort of press in line with it so it looks like cover one, but it's really a cover three look.

And Wentz was asked about it during his press conference this week, and he said one of the difficulties in playing Seattle is you have to basically throw half of your playbook out the window because you have route concepts and plays that are designed to attack cover two, designed to attack cover four. You can't run them against Seattle because they're just not going to work. So you're limited in what you can do from a schematic standpoint because you're facing a team that only basically runs one or two coverages, but they run it so well. So that will be something to look for, that matchup between Brady and those safeties, reading those guys and working off of them.

So that's kind of the matchup I'm keeping an eye on. Up next, we're going to dive into what I'm looking for when the Patriots have the football. That's here next with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, now we're going to dive into sort of my expectations when the Patriots have the football. And we're going to start with some numbers here off the top. First, I want to reference a tweet from Justice Mosqueda, somebody I work with over at Bleach Report and the NFL 1000 Project. Justice does great work.

He's an incredible sort of evaluator when it comes to edge defenders. But he's been doing a lot of stuff with data this year. And he put out a tweet on Thursday. do edge defenders, but he's been doing a lot of stuff with data this year. And he put out a tweet on Thursday. Defensive yards per carry, basically looking at how defenses were doing against the run, what they were giving up on the ground per rushing attempt. Now remember that the Buffalo Bills traded Marcel Darius to the Jacksonville Jaguars right before the trade deadline. It's somewhat of a stunning move.

Darius wasn't having the best season for Buffalo, but he was still an integral part of their defensive front. And in terms of defensive yards per carry, before that trade, Buffalo was fourth best in the league in terms of defensive yards per carry. The Jacksonville Jaguars were dead last. Since that trade, the Jaguars are now first.

They are the best run defense in the league in terms of yardage allowed per carry. The Bills, they've dropped to 29th. Those teams have basically flipped their fortunes since that trade against the run. Here's another number for you. 27. That's Buffalo's current run DVOA on football outsiders.

They are the 27th run defense over at football outsiders as determined by their DVOA statistics. Defense adjusted value over average. This is a bad run defense that the Patriots get to go against on Sunday. And now some of you might say, okay, well, wait a second now, Mark.

They slowed down the Chiefs last week. They beat the Chiefs. They slowed down Kareem Hunt. Alex Smith was Kansas City's leading rusher. This run defense can't be that bad. Well, here's another layer to it. If you go over to

LockedOnPatriots.com right now, there's a piece up there that I put together. Dion Lewis and Power Concepts against Buffalo. And what it is, it's a YouTube video. It's about three minutes long where I break down two run plays against Buffalo. I what it is, it's a YouTube video, it's about three minutes long, where I break down two running plays against Miami from this past game.

And then two very similar plays that the Saints ran against Buffalo a couple of weeks ago in that game where the Saints basically ran the ball all over the Bills all afternoon. Because one of the things that I've noticed in watching film to get ready for this week is this. The Bills have struggled against power blocking plays. Not zone blocking schemes. Kansas City is more of a zone blocking run scheme. And it doesn't take long to sort of look at their game against the Bills and see the Chiefs struggling on zone-blocking concepts.

Their first rushing attempt was an outside zone play. They lost one yard. Their next rushing attempt, an outside zone play, they gained three. Then they gained four. They tried a power-blocking scheme. They go back to zone running on their fourth rush of the day. Gain of three. Then they gained four. They tried a power blocking scheme. They go back to zone running on their fourth rush of the day, gain of three.

They tried again on their fifth run of the day, loss of five. So those zone running concepts, those were giving the Chiefs a bit of a tough time against Buffalo. But then when you look at them against power blocking concepts, particularly in that video I put together from the Saints,

Buffalo was just getting manhandled up front. And so when you look at the similarities between some of the concepts that the Saints used against Buffalo, and their similar nature to concepts that the patriots were running

with dion lewis against the dolphins you look at their defensive yards per carry since that darius trade you look at their dvoa right now i'm expecting a heavy dose of power stuff from the run game and i'm expecting a heavy dose of dion lewis we talked about with Nora Princey Audio Wednesday, Lewis has carved out a role as basically their featured back. Maybe it's 1A and 1B right now with Lewis and Burkhead. But they love running Dion Lewis between the tackles. He's extremely effective at it. And when you watch that video that I put together, you can see him making cuts,

making just one quick move at the line of scrimmage behind the power block and as it sets up. He's a great fit for what they're doing right now in terms of running the football. And so when you put all of this together, I really think Deion Lewis has a big day against this Bills defense. I think they look to establish the run with him. I think they look to attack that run defense,

which has struggled since that trade was made. And I expect Deion Lewis to have a big day. That being said, I've said it before, I'll say it again, I've lost some hair. I've had some hair turn gray trying to figure out what Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are going to do offensively. But I really think that everything points to Deion Lewis having a big day. So that's sort of my expectation for when the Patriots have the ball.

Let's talk for a bit about my expectation when Buffalo has the football. And it starts with Tyrod Taylor. And we talked a little bit about it with Nora. We got into it again with Kevin Masseri on the crossover show. Obviously some question marks at the quarterback spot for the Bills. And

you know, when they made the move to Peterman for one week, I understood it in part. I questioned it in other part because this is a team that was still on the cusp of a playoff berth. And to sort of change horses midstream like that didn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. And now we can be clear though that

tyron taylor's time in buffalo ends whenever their season ends he's gonna he's moving on and they're moving on too so they did have to at some point figure out what they had in nathan peterman because we're just a couple of months away from a draft and there are two quarterbacks in this draft class i think would fit rather nicely with Buffalo and Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. So Buffalo does have to make a decision about their quarterback spot going forward. But now Tyron Taylor is back in the lineup. And what you have to be concerned with with Tyron Taylor is the plays outside of the pocket.

You know, Cameron Hayward, excuse me, Cameron Jordan said it after that game between the Saints and the Bills where their whole defensive game plan was to make him be a pocket passer. Keep him in the pocket. So at the outset here, I'm expecting them to be somewhat conservative in terms of a pass rush. I'm not expecting a lot of blitzes, something we talked about.

Nor where are they going to go defensively in terms of their... Are they going to stay aggressive? They blitzed a lot the past couple of weeks. I think it was Evan Lazar over at Pat's Pulpit had a thread on Twitter saying that they had blitzed 36 times over the past two weeks. They had only blitzed 35 times in the nine games leading up to the past two weeks. So they've blitzed more in the past two weeks than they had all season long. But I'd expect that to take a step back this week. I'd expect to see more of what they call that little mush rush,

where you're not really going after the quarterback. You're trying to contain the quarterback. You're trying to contain the quarterback. You're trying to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket because he is at his best when he's on the move. And he's incredibly effective at extending plays, keeping his eyes downfield, and looking to throw on the move and not looking to run while he's got his legs moving. You know, it reminds me of back when I was playing. We had an old,

crotchety, wide receiver coach. He was also our school's baseball coach. And one day he got on me in practice because, you know, every time you get your damn legs moving, your damn feet moving, you don't want to stop and throw. All you want to do is run. And it was true. I was one of those guys that once I made that switch from passer to runner, I couldn't switch back. Taylor is very adept at staying as a passer until the last minute,

until it's absolutely incumbent upon him to now run with the football. There's nothing else he can do with the ball. So the Patriots are going to have to negate that advantage. They're going to have to keep him in the pocket. That's sort of job one of the pass game. Job two, and this is something that you can look at at lockdownpatriots.com, their throwback stuff. It's very similar to stuff that we've seen from Atlanta

they love running that boot action stuff Rick Denison he loves that boot action showing you outside zone and then booting off of it getting the quarterback out on the move it fits Taylor's game pretty well but then they love then throwing back to the tight end throwing back to Clay

so you're going to need to have eye discipline in the secondary I'm sure that the defense Clay. So you're going to need to have eye discipline in the secondary. I'm sure that the defense has been told all week long, you need to know what Taylor is, you need to contain him, etc., etc., etc. So there are going to be times when defenders are going to naturally have their eyes drawn to wherever he is, and they might lose guys downfield, particularly Charles Clay. And so there's going to need to be some eye discipline there.

You're going to have to keep Taylor in the pocket. The defensive front is going to have to do that job. And the secondary is going to have to be disciplined with their reads, their keys, and their eyes in the secondary. And then, of course, you've got Shady McCoy as well. So this builds offense. they can do some things. It's not going to be a situation where I don't think the Bills can win this game in a shootout, but if they get that run game going, if they start getting Tyrod Taylor out in the edges,

out of the pocket, they can be effective throwing the ball that way as well. So it begins up front for this defense. They're going to have to keep Taylor in there. And if they do that, I think they can handle this defense. But that's job one. That has to be the first goal. It's like Cameron Jordan said, make him be a pocket quarterback. If Tyra Taylor beats you on Sunday from the pocket,

then you tip your hat and you move on to the next game. So that's been a look at what I'm expecting to see when both teams have the football. Up next, we'll close out a very, very strong week here at the Locked on Patriots podcast with my final thoughts and predictions on Sunday. That's coming up at the Locked on Patriots podcast with my final thoughts and predictions on Sunday.

That's coming up here on Locked on Patriots. Okay, so let's get into sort of final thoughts and predictions here. And I'll admit, I really went back and forth on these. You know, right now I'm looking at Bovada. Patriots given nine, over under 48.

You know, I really sort of went back and forth on this one. And I wasn't quite sure where I was going to come down. And as I was sort of getting my show notes for this episode together, I had it written down. And then at the last minute minute I just flipped my mind. So here's where I'm going with this game. Patriots, favored by nine, I'm going to give those points. Over under 48, I'm going to hit the over.

I was originally saying, it's a divisional game. These teams know each other. Divisional games on the road are tough. I'm coming down on this being a sort of defensive-minded, 24-20 type game. Bills cover the spread, the underhits. But the more I thought about it, and the more I thought about particularly how the Bills have struggled defending the run, how that sets up so well,

what the Patriots have been doing this year because I took a look back at it, and we've talked a lot about the Patriots running the ball in first down. I went back, I pulled those numbers, and they're still 1, 2, 3, 4, the 6th in the league right now running the ball in first down. Only the Saints, the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, and the Falcons are better running the ball in first down in terms of average yardage gain.

Patriots are in there at the sixth spot, 4.61 yards per play, running the ball in first down. I just think that's an incredible way to keep the offense on schedule. And given the trouble that the Bills have had against the run, particularly against power blocking schemes, I think this is going to set up nicely for them to establish a bit of a run game. It allows them to build on the other stuff that they've been doing this year. That Yankee concept, they hit it against the Dolphins.

It wouldn't surprise me to see them hit it again. They hit it to Philip Dorsett. I'd look for that working off of play action. So I think the Patriots are going to have a good day on Sunday. I think they cover the nine. I think the overhits. I think we're talking about a team that gets to 10-0. I mean, not 10-0, 10-2.

And maybe they get some help elsewhere, maybe they don't, but I think this is going to be a good day for the New England Patriots, which would be a tremendous way to cap off what has been a great week here at the Locked On Patriots podcast. Just a tremendous week. Thank you again to all the listeners. I'm going to be tweeting out a little bit later today a live draft over at draft.com.

We've been talking about that. We'll get one of those set up. Listeners can hop in with me. Later today, a live draft over at draft.com. We've been talking about that. We'll get one of those set up. Listeners can hop in with me. Make sure you're following me on Twitter, at Mark Schofield. Also, quick shout-out to some of the other shows out there. Definitely give Locked On Bills a listen. Kevin Masseri crushed it with me on Thursday.

He's great, great. Bills, mine. Somebody definitely follow on Twitter. Keep up to date with one of the teams in the AFC East. Locked on Eagles, Michael J. Kist, Benjamin Solak. They're doing great work over there. Fly Eagles, fly. Travis Sikama, John Ledyard, both for Locked On NFL Draft.

And then Ledyard at Locked On Steelers. You guys probably want to start listening to Locked On Steelers because that game looms large here in a couple of weeks. Aaron Freeman over at Locked On Falcons, John Corrales over at Locked On Celtics, those guys are crushing it as well. There are just a number of great shows here in the Locked On Network. Listen, subscribe. People doing great work five days a week, sometimes even more, covering their team. So show some of those others.

Show some love if you can. I will be back sometimes Sunday evening. Hopefully with another glorious victory edition of Locked On Patriots that would get us to eight in a row. That would be nice too. Again, follow all the work that's going up over

at LockedOnPatriots.com. Tweet those articles. Share those articles out. Next week I'm going to have a little promo to help reward the listeners for sharing some stuff. That could be exciting as well, so look for that next week. Also look for that link for Live Draft over at DraftCock.com.

Check that out. Use promo code LONFL when you sign up. So until Sunday, everybody have a great weekend. Enjoy the games this weekend. And as always, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and locked on Patriots.