Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 14, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: December 14, 2018

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's a game day edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair for Friday, December 14th, 2018. We got a loaded, loaded show for you today. We're going to talk Patriots-Steelers expectations for Sunday. We're going to talk a little bit about playoff scenarios, games I'm going to be watching on Sunday afternoon. We got Saturday football to talk about. We got bowl season upon us.

Huge game last night in the AFC West. So a loaded, loaded show for you to talk about. Before we dive into all of it, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites.

And another place to keep up with this show, Locked on Patriots is now on the gram. That's right, Locked on Patriots. All one word. On Instagram. I'm going to be doing clips of the show, other cool stuff over there. So you can check that out. You don't have to follow me. You can follow the show. How about that?

That's pretty cool. Obviously, huge, huge, huge week 15 slate. We're going to get into some sort of playoff scenarios, some boxes that might be checked, might not be checked, might have already been checked by the time you're listening to this show. But before we do that, our usual game day fair, we're going to talk about Patriots, we're going to talk about Steelers. And I'm going to make another pitch right now for why you should join the Locked On Patriots Slack channel.

And the pitch is this. You get access to very, very smart people, much smarter than I am. I'm going to talk about the Patriots offense for a second and something that I'm going to be watching, not just in this Steelers game, but down the stretch. And this is courtesy of our great friend, Dave Archibald, at Dave Archie on Twitter, a member of the Locked On Patriots Slack channel

who dug into some stuff on Thursday morning. And I'm just going to be quoting from the Locked On Patriots Slack channel. Again, showing you all the stuff you'll get access to when you join up. Again, if you want to join at MarkSofield on Twitter, send me a message asking for an invite. From Dave,

Evan Lazar points out Patriots are 27th in the league in goal-to-go situations. They run the ball 5th most at the goal line, but are 25th in yards per carry. Dave continues, football outsiders at the Patriots, third overall in adjusted line yards, which is their run blocking metric, but 26th in power success. Third or fourth downs and one to two yards to go, or runs from the one to two yard line.

So that kind of tracks. As Dave puts it so eloquently, basically they stink at running in obvious running situations. Further, the Patriots have 22 rushes within the two yard line, which is the most in the National Football League, but only nine touchdowns. That's less than 50%. League average, 52%. Sure, it's a small sample size, but something to keep in mind. However, Devlin is four for four and Brady is one for one in those situations. So it's the

running backs who have struggled. Sonny Michel, for example, only 2 for 9 in those situations. There are 23 running backs with at least 5 carries down on the goal line, and 20 of them, 20, have 3 touchdowns or more. Sonny Michel and James White are 2 of the 3 who don't. The other, Alfred Morris, was 0 for 5. In addition, New England is bottom five in throwing at the goal line. Three touchdowns on just 11 plays. So as Dave sort of postulates here,

the Devlin runs have been a wrinkle in response to the struggles in this area. He's got four touchdowns all in the past four games and three in the last two. They also haven't targeted the tight ends at all on the goal line. Not just Gronk, Dwayne Allen, Jacob Hollister, all of them have zero targets down on the goal line. And so there you go. That's something I'm going to be watching,

not just in this Steelers game, but in the games to come. Can the Patriots get better down near the goal line, or is that going to be their kryptonite this year? So that's something to watch. Again, all from Dave Archibald, at Dave Archie on Twitter. Other stuff I'm going to be watching,

when the Patriots have the football first and foremost, what coverage are the Steelers going to be in? Obviously, years past, they've spot-dropped into cover three type stuff, and that's kind of what they've wanted to do. Last year, however, they did more cover two man what are we going to see who's going to cover Gronkowski I highlighted for you

Tony Serena over at Locked On Steelers on our crossover show talked about it they struggled with Jared Cook they've struggled with tight ends Morgan Burnett Terrell Edmonds they've used some different guys. LJ Fort, it didn't work last week against the Oakland Raiders and Jared Cook.

And Gronk has balled out in games against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I mean, both Gronk and Brady have. Let's just look at the numbers historically. Start with Tom Brady now, who has 10 regular season games and three playoff games against the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the regular season games, those 10 games, he has an 8-2 record, has completed almost 69% of his throws,

68.97 if you'd like to be accurate, for 3,124 yards, 25 touchdowns, four interceptions, a quarterback rating of 111.8, a yards per attempt of 8.29, and an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.14. Those would be pretty good numbers for a 16-game season, at least recently speaking. Maybe now in the new NFL, but like five or six years ago, those would be pretty good numbers for a player's career. I mean, for a player's single season. As a matter of fact, let's do this. That number of touchdown passes, that 25 number,

that would be more than Brady threw in some entire seasons. That number of touchdown passes, that 25 number, that would be more than Brady threw in some entire seasons. In 2003, he threw 23. In 2006, he threw 24. In 2013, he threw 25. And that's 10 games. That tells you what he's done against the Pittsburgh Steelers. And they've gotten better in the playoffs. You know, completed 71.6%

of his passes for 700 yards, 5 touchdowns, no interceptions, QB rated of 118.6. That's in 3 playoff games. And basically, you can make the case it was in 2 because the first one was that game against the Steelers,

that AFC Championship game, where he only threw 18 passes. He was knocked out of the game and Bledsoe came back in. So the bulk of that came in two games. That's Brady. Gronkowski, again, similar big type numbers. Six games against the Steelers, all in the regular season.

He's caught 39 passes on 49 targets for 664 yards, 17.03 yards per reception, eight touchdowns. I'm expecting those two to have a huge game. So that's what I'm going to be watching. I'm going to be watching those two. Do they have the big game that we're expecting? Do the Patriots get better down near the goal line? When the Steelers have the football, I'm watching, no, Ben Roethlisberger. Is he out

there? James Conner, is he out there? I think we're going to see a game plan similar to what we saw against Minnesota. Go radar, go amoeba, whatever you want to call it up front, go light up front at times, dare them to run the football. If you want to run the ball with a banged up James Connor and a Jathan Samuel to beat us, fine. We will go

traditional doubles on AB. We will go traditional double on Juju Smith-Schuster if we have to. Maybe they don't do that, but I'd expect this game plan to look a lot like the Minnesota game plan. And it almost begs the question, was that game against the Vikings just a one-off or a trial run for what we saw here? Similar to what we were talking about, that 3-2-6 type package against Indianapolis. Was that a trial run for Kansas City? And they did use it a

lot against Kansas City. I'm just wondering if that was sort of the thinking there. So those are the things I'm going to be watching for. As far as the prediction, like I said on the crossover show Wednesday, I could see this game going in any number of directions. But really, when it comes down to it sitting here right now, I think the Patriots win this one, given what they've done against the Steelers historically. I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a bit of a slide.

I think the Patriots bounce back from what happened in the game, which we will never mention again. And the Patriots take care of business. Up next, Week 15, playoff scenarios. What I'm going to be watching for. The huge game last night between the Chargers and the Chiefs. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this game day installment of the Locked On Patriots

podcast. And folks, let's talk some Week 15 stuff. Before we get to the playoff scenarios and the games I'm watching, just a reminder, a gentle reminder, friends. We have Saturday football. This is, I always get those throwbacks, those, you know, reminders of life as a kid growing up when you get those Saturday games in December. I always loved those.

The Saturday afternoon games, stuff like that. We get two Saturday games this week. So don't forget, you get Texans at Jets on Saturday afternoon. Browns at Broncos on Saturday night. You get some Saturday football now as we get closer and closer to the holidays. Let's talk some Week 15 playoff scenarios. We'll start in the NFC. Two teams are already in, punched their tickets, the Rams.

They have clinched the NFC West. The Saints have clinched the NFC South. For the Saints, who play on Monday night at Carolina, they can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Chicago loss or tie or a Saints tie against the Panthers and a Chicago loss so the Saints can clinch their first round buy that way

the Rams who play on Sunday night against the band up Philadelphia Eagles they clinch a first round buy with a Rams win and a Chicago loss or tie or a Rams tie and a Chicago loss so both those Or a Rams tie and a Chicago loss. So both those teams, they get their first round buys with the same combination of events. For those aforementioned Chicago Bears.

They clinch the NFC North win. They clinch the NFC North division title with a Bears win. Or a Minnesota loss. Or a Bears tie and a Vikings tie. So that's how they would clinch the division. They just get in if they tie the game that they have against the Packers on Sunday or a Washington loss or tie. The Dallas Cowboys, who play at the Colts early on Sunday, they clinch the NFC East

division title with a Dallas win or a Dallas tie and a Philly loss or tie and a Washington loss or tie or scenario three, a Philly loss and a Washington loss. So Dallas certainly has the inside track to get in that NFC East division title. The Seattle Seahawks, perhaps with the Houston Texans loss, now they're maybe the hottest team in football. They clinch a playoff berth a number of different ways. A Seattle win and they're in. A Seattle tie, a Minnesota loss, and a Carolina loss or tie, and they're in. Here's where it gets to be a little bit of fun. A Seattle tie, a Minnesota loss, a Philly loss or tie,

and a Washington loss or tie, and they're in. A Seattle tie, a Carolina loss or tie, and a Philly loss or tie, and a Washington loss or tie, and they're in. Let's move to the AFC now. We're going to hold some of the AFC West stuff for a little bit later. We're going to recap that game. Some boxes were checked. Some boxes may not be. The New England Patriots at Pittsburgh on Sunday, they clinch an AFC East division title with a New England win and a Miami loss or tie or a New England tie and a Miami loss. They clinch a playoff berth

with a New England win and a tennessee loss or tie or a new england win a new england tie excuse me a baltimore loss a tennessee loss and an indie loss or time houston texans there are a number of scenarios where they can do some things here on saturday they get the AFC South with a win, an Indy loss or tie, and a Tennessee loss or tie, or a Houston tie, an Indy loss, and a Tennessee loss. That's how they get the division title. There are eight different ways, eight different combinations in which they can just get a playoff berth. If they win, they need Miami and Pittsburgh to lose or Miami and Baltimore to lose. If they tie their game, a number of different combinations get them into the

playoffs. And I'm not going to bore you with all of them. Then, of course, there was Thursday night's game. Now, here's what was at stake going in. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West and a first round bye with a win. They clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a Chiefs win and a Patriots loss or tie. As for the Chargers, they could clinch a playoff berth

with a win over the Chiefs or they could get some help, but the easiest way to clinch a berth was a win over the Chiefs. Now, did they get that? And yes, yes, the Chargers did get the win in this game, and an absolutely incredible finish, an incredible comeback from them. Chargers were down 21-7 after the opening drive of the second half

where Kansas City goes right down the field, seven plays, 74 yards, touchdown to take a 21-7 after the opening drive of the second half where Kansas City goes right down the field. Seven plays, 74 yards, touchdown. They take a 21-7 lead. Chargers get back in it, though. They score a touchdown. Teams trade punts. Then the Chiefs put together a touchdown drive of their own to make a 28-14 lead.

Chargers get back into it. They score a touchdown to make it 28-21. They need to force a punt to get the ball back because now we're late in the fourth quarter. They do it. They need to force a punt to get the ball back because now we're into late in the fourth quarter. They do it. They force a three and out. Helped on that drive or failure of a drive by the Chiefs by a false start penalty. Make it a third and 13 situation. They actually sack Patrick Mahomes on that play. So they get the ball back with about 237 left. They needed a touchdown to tie this and force overtime.

You get two big throws from Phillip Rivers to Travis Benjamin first on a first and 20 for 31 yards. A great example of attack and cover to middle of the field open route where he throws the post right on the middle field. And then on a fourth and seven where he drills in sort of a seam route. Again, sort of a middle field open type look. But then there's this weird sequence on a second and goal play at the 10 where there's 34 seconds left rivers tries to

scramble gets sacked he gets hit high by justin houston and he's screaming around looking for a flag a lot of time comes off the clock they burn their final time out with just 13 seconds left now you get third and goal with 13 seconds left at the 10 yard line you're thinking it's gonna be tough for them to get in the end zone now they're out of timeouts rivers was wasting some time while they were screaming looking for a flag and get a questionable pass interference penalty on fuller you know rivers is trying to hit mike williams who had game. High throw. Fuller grabs the left arm of Williams. Williams has the right arm up. Not even sure if it was catchable, but they throw the flag.

Sets him up first and goal at the 1. And then Skandrick, defensive back. He is going to want to forget the rest of this game because you get a touchdown on a back shoulder fade type thing where Williams beats Skandrick. Maybe a push off, but it wasn't called. You get a Williams beat Scandrick, maybe a push off, but it wasn't called, you get a touchdown,

Scandrick screaming for the flag, Williams dancing in front of him, and then, gutsiest call I've seen, since that London game, between the Titans, and the Chargers, the Chargers were on the winning end of this one,

back in London, now it's the Chargers who decide, forget it, we're going to eschew the tie we're going to go for the win here and you get a busted coverage Skandrick and the other defensive back they both jump the in cut Williams breaks to the outside easy throw easy catch two-point conversion squib kick on the ensuing kickoff they try a lateral it's fumbled Chargers clinch a playoff berth With this victory And now

Things are a little interesting At the top of the AFC West So that's going to be fun to watch out And just a fantastic finish And it wasn't even the most exciting thing of the day It wasn't even the most Let me rephrase that It wasn't even the most interesting thing of the day

The most interesting thing of the day Was Pitbull dropping a cover Of Africa Called Ocean to Ocean For the Aquaman soundtrack The most interesting thing of the day was Pitbull dropping a cover of Africa called Ocean to Ocean for the Aquaman soundtrack. And I'll get into that at another time. So with that in the rear view mirror, now let's look ahead just quickly to some of the other stuff we'll be watching on Sunday. And yeah, we've run through some of the playoff scenarios

so we know what's at stake for the majority of these teams. We'll be obviously keeping an eye on those games. For example, you've got that one Sunday night, that Eagles-Rams game, which seems to be fascinating with everything that's swirling around the Philadelphia Eagles and Carson Wentz right now. Another game we'll be watching is that Monday night. Can the Saints do what they need to do? Cam Newton ruled out for that game, so it's going to be tough to imagine Carolina winning that even though it's at home. I'm going to be watching that Packers-Bears game at 1,

seeing the Bears' chance to clinch the division for the first time in a long time. I think 2013 was the last time they won the division, so maybe it was before that. I think it was 2013. I looked that up the other day. So we'll be watching that. And of course, the big one we'll be watching on Sunday afternoon, that late game, the National 1 Patriots at Steelers. Another game to sort of keep an eye on, at least for what I do, is that Bucks at Ravens game.

Why? Lamar Jackson, now the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens. He's taking over for Joe Flacco, who's going to be sat down, even though he's back and fully healthy after his hip injury. So there you go. Loaded NFL slate. We're getting down basically into the nitty-gritty of the season. This is some of the best, best, best football of the year.

That post-Thanksgiving stretch run where teams are trying to vie for playoff positions and stuff like that. So it's going to be fascinating to watch this play out. Unfortunately, the next time you will hear from me, obviously we still got some college football to talk about, but I just want to let everybody know there will be no Sunday morning tailgate show this week. My plans will preclude me from doing a Sunday morning show.

Unfortunately, I'm sorry, but I'm going to be running around this week and doing some family stuff, so I won't be able to talk to you until hopefully a glorious Victory Edition episode of Locked on Patriots, but I just wanted to prepare everybody. Up next, we got bowl games to talk to you until hopefully a glorious victory edition episode of Locked on Patriots. But I just wanted to prepare everybody. Up next, we got bowl games to talk about ever so briefly to close out this game day

installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now to quickly close out this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. And we got some college games to talk about yet again. It's bowl season. The most wonderful time of the year as, well, as those ESPN commercials remind us. But anyway,

it kicks off Saturday, December 15th, 1.30 p.m. between the Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Raging Cages and the AutoNation Cure Bowl. And I got nothing for you kids. I got nothing. I watch a lot of college football.. And I got nothing for you kids. I got nothing. I watch a lot

of college football. I study a lot of college football players. I got nothing. I can tell you the Tulane is favored by 3.5 points and the over under is 59. If you're looking to place any bets over at my bookie or any place, I was like that. But then we get into an interesting game already. The second bowl game of the year is an interesting one. I'll be keeping

an eye on that. Utah State-North Texas game. Utah State comes in at 10-2. North Texas under Seth Rittrell. They're 9-3. He's really turned that program around. He's decided to stay at North Texas. Giving up a shot and making the leap to the big time. Going to Kansas State. He's going to stay at North Texas.

Mason Fine, the North Texas quarterback. He's put up some big numbers this year. Thrown for over 3,700 yards. 27 touchdowns. Undersized kid. Listed at 5'11", 185. But I think he's somebody that you have a big near in the next year. As a senior, puts up some big numbers. Maybe some NFL teams bite. You know, we're hearing the Kyler Murray talk.

Maybe some teams are starting to look, look, you don't need to be six foot anymore to play this position. We can do some stuff schematically to get you throwing lanes. Look at Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, who's just above that six foot mark so interesting game to watch there 330 you get the mitsubishi motors las vegas bowl arizona state fresno state that's out in las vegas marcus mccarrion quarterback for fresno state another player to watch mccarrion also putting up some big type numbers this year completing 278 of 398 passes for 3,453 yards, 25 touchdowns, 300 interceptions, a senior quarterback.

Pro prospects for him, you know, not likely to get a senior bowl invite. He'd have to leap over at Daniel Jones and, in my opinion, at Baker Mayfield. But he's put up some interesting numbers this year. Certainly a player to keep an eye on. Might get himself a Shrine Game invite or an NFL PA Bowl type situation. So, you know, somebody to watch during this game, so that will be interesting.

530, the Raycon Media Bowl. Doubt it. Crampton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. Georgia Southern, Eastern Michigan. Don't get a lot for you here. This is probably a game between two teams that are really going to run the ball. Tyler Wiegers, who's Eastern Michigan's quarterback, he's thrown for under 2,000 yards this year.

Best player for Georgia Southern, probably their running back, Wesley Fields, has rushed for just under 1,000 yards, 177 rushing attempts for 959 yards, nine touchdowns. These are the two teams that are pretty much going to really focus on running the football. A little bit later in the day, we get another bowl game that you probably want to at least check in on. I know it's going to be Saturday night, stuff like that, but you get kicking off at 9 p.m. the R&L Carriers New Orleans

Bowl. Middle Tennessee, Appalachian State. Brett Stockstill, quarterback for Middle Tennessee State. Another player that's put up some big numbers, a left-hander. Over 300 completions, 3,214 yards, 28 touchdown passes. He's battled some injuries. Coach's son-type kid. I don't think you're going to see a lot of NFL interest with him. I know he had a collarbone injury, a pretty severe one for a while.

Bit of an older player as well, so I don't think the NFL team is going to be biting. But it should be fun to watch him. I know he had a collarbone injury, a pretty severe one for a while. A bit of an older player as well, so I don't think the team's going to be biting, but it should be fun to watch him. Ty Lee, receiver for Middle Tennessee State, 67 receptions for 828 yards and seven touchdowns. He might be a player to kind of watch. And another game that's worth mentioning, the AFR Celebration Bowl between the champions of the MEAC and the SWAC. You're going to get North Carolina A&T against Alcorn State. That's down in Atlanta. That kicks off at noon as well. So loaded, loaded, loaded day of college football action on Saturday. So you definitely sort of want to check that out.

Other games, bowl games, get into it. On Tuesday, you've got the Boca Raton Bowl. Wednesday, you're going to have the DXL Frisco Bowl. Bowl Thursday you get the bad boy mowers Gasparilla Bowl you know that's an interesting one I'm sure you're all excited for that you know the next quarterback to really sort of keep an eye on as we get sort of into bowl season Nathan Rourke at Ohio that's in that DXL Frisco Bowl for Ohio University you might want to keep an eye on him. Underrated type guy. And then, look, next Saturday, we'll talk about it some more,

but Buffalo has their bowl game, the Dollar General Bowl, down at Ladd People's Stadium in Mobile, Alabama, a place I know and love. Tyree Jackson leading Buffalo against Troy. That's a home game for Troy. Basically a home game. They don't play. That's a home game for Troy. Basically a home game. They don't play. That's South Alabama's home stadium, but Troy's nearby. Interesting to see what Tyree Jackson does

as far as the draft, though. Going to be curious to decide if he declares, if he comes out, or if he goes back for his senior year. As far as some other college football news that you probably want to know about, look, Mel Kuyper Jr., the big man himself, has released his initial top five for the quarterback class of 2019. Justin Herbert, Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones, Drew Locke, Will Greer, and as he says,

still a long ways to go. You know, I'll be here keeping you updated all the way. And soon I'll be unveiling some of my own thoughts on this quarterback class. But let's put this show to bed, shall we? Had a nice little afternoon here. That's a nice little afternoon ahead of us all. Get it into the weekend. We got college football. We got Saturday NFL football, Sunday NFL football. Huge slate of games, obviously.

It's going to be fantastic. Always fun this time of year. I will not be back Sunday. Remember that until, hopefully, a glorious victory edition episode of the Locked On Patriots. But until we talk again, keep it locked right here

to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Thank you.