Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 15, 2017 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: December 15, 2017

Mark Schofield has your Gameday Edition of Locked On Patriots.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here in the big chair for Friday, December 15th. Again, your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. You can follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. You can follow my work over at InsideThePylon, InsideThePylon.com. You can check out video I just did yesterday on Josh Rosen and his 10 interceptions. That's over at our YouTube page, which is YouTube.com backslash InsideThePylon. I'm going to do this interception series for as many quarterbacks as I can.

New England Patriots might be in the market for a quarterback. Speaking of quarterbacks, you can follow my work over at Bleacher Report. I am the quarterback scout for the NFL 1000 Project, ranking the quarterbacks each and every week. Final season rankings will be out on January 2nd, so you can look ahead to that. Today, your game day edition, you're going to do a couple of things. First, we're going to talk playoff scenarios, just what's at stake here in week 15. Then, my expectations for Sunday. We've been all over this Steelers matchup all week long. We talked to Alex Cazorra.

We talked to John Ledyard. I'm going to have my takes on what I expect to see on Sunday. Then, finally, predictions. But let's get into what's at stake here. And I hesitate to throw out the term must win game. But I'm almost there with this game for the New England Patriots, because here's what's at stake. The Steelers, they're already in. You know, they clinched home field. I mean in they clinched home field I mean they clinched the division

they can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Jacksonville loss Steelers can clinch a first round bye with a win or a tie and a Jacksonville loss so this sets up nicely for the Steelers and as we talked about with John Ledyard can clinch a first round bye with a win or a tie in a Jacksonville loss.

So this sets up nicely for the Steelers. And as we talked about with John Ledger, Steelers want to be home throughout the playoffs. Why? They're no huddle offense. They like to run it. Roethlisberger feels much more comfortable when he's sort of calling the shots. Tougher to do that on the road. So that's what's at stake for the Steelers.

Let's talk about New England here. They haven't clinched yet. They haven't gotten in yet. They can clinch a division title with a win or a tie or a Buffalo loss or a tie. Then you get the hat and t-shirt finally. They clinch a playoff berth with a Baltimore loss or tie.

Before I talk about Jacksonville just for a minute, here's why I think these games must win. The Patriots can drop to 10-4. If the Jags win, they improve to 10-4. Then you're looking at a situation where not only might you lose out on home field advantage, you might lose out on a first-round bye. Then you're talking having to play three games

to get to the Super Bowl. Then you're talking no bye week, no rest. You're talking about Tom Brady playing three straight games. So that's why I think this is a critically important game for the New England Patriots. They need to win because you know,

playing at home is nice and like we talked about with John Ledyard, if they end up being the two seed somehow and they have to play an AFC championship game potentially on the road maybe in Pittsburgh okay they've done it before but that bye week I think is really pivotal

to New England's Super Bowl hopes and so it's a critical game for them but that's what's at stake. Jacksonville, I said I'd talk about them for a second. They clinch a playoff berth with a win or a tie in a Buffalo loss or a tie in a Baltimore loss or a Buffalo loss and a Baltimore loss or a Baltimore loss and the Chiefs-Chargers game does not end in a tie. So there are a number of ways that your Jacksonville Jaguars can get into the playoffs this week. Shout out to the hosts of Locked On Jaguars,

Zach Goodall and Christopher Thornton. You should check out their show. Duvall is fired up for their Jaguars. And after the seasons that they've had recently, it is good to see. But we don't want to see them with a first-round buy instead of the New England Patriots, and that's why the Patriots need to come out and get a W on Sunday. We're going to talk about how they can do that

up ahead here on Locked on Patriots, but before I do, let's talk about this. Holidays are around the corner and they're fun. You get together with family and friends. There's lots of food, lots of presents. There's lots of football, basketball, and hockey games that you can watch with your family. But then there's that day after the holidays, before the first of the year, where you go to the mailbox and the bills come.

Don't be in a situation where that really stresses you out. You're going to need holiday cash and I know where to get it. My bookie is the place to score serious cash on your sports predictions. And look, if you've been listening to these shows, Locked on Patriots, Locked on Steelers, you've got a bit of an edge. So man up and play like the pros on game day. You can play the money line, the side, or the total.

MyBookie is your hookup for all your betting needs and offers you super fast payouts when you win. I've said it before, where you bet is just as important as who you're betting on. And if you want to make money betting the games so that day that the bills arrive isn't as stressful, you've got to go to mybookie.ag. They're the only site I recommend. I trust them, but you don't have to take my word for it.

Check them out yourself. They have odds on every matchup, a mobile site that makes wagering on your phone a breeze. Join now and mybookie will match your deposit with up to a 50% bonus. Use promo code LOCKEDON to activate the offer. Visit mybookie.ag. You play, you win, you get paid, and you make that day those bills come a little less stressful. All right, let's talk for a minute here about what I expect to see on Sunday. And if you've heard the shows this week, my chat with Alex Cazorra, my chat with John Ledger,

you've got a good flavor of where people think this game is going. Here's sort of what I'm expecting to see from both teams. I'm expecting to see five wide. I'm expecting to see empty sets. I'm expecting to see both Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger alone in the shotgun. And here's why. We saw on Monday night the New England Patriots had some trouble when their linebackers, Landon Roberts, were asked to cover. Ken and Drake hit that big vertical route against Landon Roberts in that game.

It would not surprise me to see the Steelers do something similar with Le'Veon Bell. They love Le'Veon Bell as a receiving threat. John Ledger talked about how they hit him for a post-route for a touchdown against the Ravens last Sunday night. We know that Antonio Brown is a dangerous weapon. I expect to see Stephon Gilmore get the first crack at covering Antonio Brown is a dangerous weapon. I expect to see Stephon Gilmore get the first crack at covering Antonio Brown.

That's why I sort of anticipate that the Steelers are going to look to spread the field and try to get some advantageous matchups with Le'Veon Bell. Because what's the old saying about Bill Belichick? He's going to take your best weapon and eliminate it. Or at least try to. And Pittsburgh's best weapon right now is Antonio Brown.

He has been incredible over the past couple of weeks. So I would imagine we're going to see a situation where they put Gilmore on him. Maybe they dedicate some safety help as well. Try to bracket him as best as you can. And then make Pittsburgh beat you with somebody else. And if I'm Pittsburgh and if I see that, then I try to establish the run at times. I'm sure Pittsburgh can run the ball very well.

But I think you try to use that up-tempo offense that Roethlisberger likes. You try to spread New England out. You try to get those matchups with maybe Bell onto Landon Roberts, maybe Kyle Van Noy if he's back. Maybe it is a situation where you see Patrick Chun asked to cover Le'Veon Bell if he gets split out wide.

But I think that's what Pittsburgh is going to do offensively. And then let's flip it around for a bit. The Ryan Shazier injury. Obviously, what matters most is his health. And we want to see him up and walking. We want to see him out of the hospital. We all wish him the best. And we want to see him back on the field.

We hope that for him. If that's what he wants to do, we hope to see that. But with respect to on the field right now, the loss of Shazier is a big one because he's sort of that athletic guy that might be asked to cover Rob Gronkowski. Now you've got to make some decisions if you're the Pittsburgh Steelers. You heard the phrase spot dropping. You know, just drop it into zones, try to keep everything in front of you, not playing a man,

trying to constrict throwing lanes and taking away throws that way. The Steelers have traditionally done that against Tom Brady, and it hasn't worked. If they try to do it again, I expect New England to spread the field, find those soft spots in those zones,

let Brady go to work the way he's done against this team the past couple of meetings. John ran through the numbers. They're impressive. Nine touchdown passes and no interceptions against Mike Tomlin's Steelers in the regular season. Five touchdown passes and no interceptions in the playoffs season. Five touchdown passes and no interceptions in the playoffs

in recent meetings. Because there isn't a zone coverage scheme that Tom Brady hasn't seen, and there isn't a zone coverage scheme that Tom Brady hasn't sort of picked apart at one point or another in his career. But then if you think, okay, can they go man coverage? Can they do some different things that way? Can they try to find some matchups to slow down New England's pass and attack?

Here's where the loss of Shazier comes into question because who then becomes the guy that covers Rob Gronkowski? You're asking Sean Davis to do it. You're asking Mike Mitchell to do it. You can have TJ Watt move him inside and have him cover Rob Gronkowski. Those are all matchups where it's advantage New England.

And if you're the Patriots, you spread the field, you move guys around like they have, and you try to find out, okay, who's going to be the guy that their worst coverage guy ends up on? That's where we're going to go with the football. So that's why I expect both teams to really sort of spread the field. And we talked about it with John, and John felt the same way.

That's why I expect this to be a high-scoring game. And if there's one sort of thing that I do want to highlight before we get to final predictions here, it's the comeback route, the curl route, the deep curl. When you talk about teams playing cover three, when you talk about a cornerback's responsibility and leverage in a cover three situation, your main fear is getting beat deep. Cover three situation. Your main fear is getting beat deep.

If you're an outside cornerback with a deep outside third responsibility, there's no safety help. You're out there alone. So you have to respect the vertical route. You have to respect the deep ball. So you're going to give cushion in most cases, unless you're Seattle with their press cover three, which was all in vogue the past couple of years. But you're going to give that cushion.

You're going to respect the deep ball. And so if you see a receiver break off the line and push vertically, you're going to maintain that cushion. You're going to give him some room to work because you don't want to have to turn and run and bail and get beaten. Which is why I want to talk about that comeback, that deep curl route for a second. Because I think with Brandon Cooks, the Patriots will have a couple of chances in this game to take some deep shots. They'll try to do it.

They might even try to do it early in the game to put this in the mind of those cornerbacks. Because it sets up the easier throw, which is that curl route, that deep comeback route, where you push upfield vertically, you sell that defender on the goal route, and then you throttle down, you work back towards the outside, you work back towards the sideline, you make yourself available for Tom Brady at about a 15 yard depth, and it's an easy throw and an easy catch. And if you've planted that bug, planted that seed in the defender's minds about going deep, maybe if you've gotten past them once or twice, it doesn't even have to be completed.

But you give them something to worry about, it makes that route easier. And it's a much easier route to throw. It's a route that Brady throws pretty well. And you can live that way. You can move the chains that way. You can convert your third and seventh situations that way. You can hit on that on our first and ten. And that sets up a lot of other stuff that you want to do. So that's why I think the deep comeback route, that deep curl route

is something that they can do. Which brings me to my final point, Kenny Britt. Will he be active on Sunday? I don't know. But if he is, I would look for him in those situations because he's the big-bodied type wide receiver. A bit of a vertical threat. You might see him try to stretch the field a little bit. He might come in for just a couple of plays to do that. Try to stretch the field and then run one of those curls,

those comebacks, those types of routes. That's a way that Cleveland used him from time to time this year. The Rams used him on stuff like that last year where he had his career year with Case Keenum and rookie Jared Goff throwing on the football. So I think there's a chance for Kenny Britt to play a small role but perhaps an important role in this game. So those are the things that I'm looking for. I'm looking for the teams to spread the field.

I'm looking for both teams to try to find those matchups that they want to take advantage of, with Le'Veon Bell, with Rob Gronkowski, with Deion Lewis perhaps, with Rex Burkhead getting moved outside as well. I'm looking for a high-scoring game. I think it'll be a lot of fun to watch, sort of watch the chess mats unfold. I'm looking for those deep curl routes, those deep comeback routes from Brandon Cooks, perhaps even Kenny Britt.

How is it going to play out, though? That's next, here with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, let's dive into prediction time. And again, check out mybookie.ag, use promo code LOCKEDON if you were so inclined. Currently, Patriots, three-point favorites on the road. Over, under in this game, 54. If you heard my show with John Ledyard,

you know where my head's at on this. I'm looking 35-30. That's the kind of game I'm expecting. I expect it to be sort of a one-score game. But I think the Patriots, I think they cover the three. That over, under of 54, it's a huge number.

54 is a huge number. But from where I'm sitting right now, I think the team's hit that. Because I look at the success Tom Brady's had against this defense in the past couple of meetings. I look at the Steelers' offense rounded into form.

They've been playing well recently. Antonio Brown's put up huge numbers. I think they'll be able to make some plays, find some mismatches. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game. There you go. Again, I've been wrong before. I'll be wrong again.

I'm not paid always to be right. I try to be right as best as I can, but I'm paid to entertain as well. Which brings me to what I want to end on, which is I hope you enjoyed Living Like Brady day one. If you missed it, go back and check Thursday's show.

I opened the show with my first of what will be a series of diaries where I got my hands on that Tom Brady TB12 app. And I'm going to talk about my experiences with it. Sometime next week, I'm going to talk about my experiences with it. Sometime next week, I'm going to do some cooking with it. I'll tweet out some photos of what that was like.

But we're trying to have a little bit of fun here too because, listen, I know, and I've said it before, I'll say it again, I know you have a ton of options to listen to podcasts from all corners of the internet but i'm building a nice loyal group of followers here each and every one of you mean the world to me it's great and i'm trying to do the do everything i can to entertain you for 20-25 minutes you know bring a smile to your face make you laugh a little bit make you think a little bit about football and give you some insight on what I'm seeing on the field and away from it.

So I'm trying some new things here with this Living Like Brady series. Check that out if you haven't. I'll have more stuff on that soon. But that's been your game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Hope you enjoyed it. Hope you came away learning something new. Again, check out my work. You can find me on Twitter at Mark Schofield.

Check out the videos I've been doing over at youtube.com slash Inside the Pylon. That first sound series breaking down quarterback stuff. Draft season is always with us. Patriots might be in on a quarterback so follow that stuff. Speaking of quarterbacks, you can follow my work over at

Bleacher Report, the NFL 1000 Project. Have a fantastic weekend, everybody. Thanks so much for listening. It's been a massive week for the Locked On Patriots podcast. Huge, huge, huge, huge numbers. Thankful to all of you. Tell your friends. Tell your loved ones.

The holidays are around. You're going to be getting together with family. Play some of this stuff for them. Give them a little taste. Let them know what they're missing out on. Have a fantastic weekend. Enjoy the games, everybody. I will be back Sunday night,

hopefully with a glorious victory edition. But either way, I will be back Sunday night. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield. And Locked on big.