Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 20, 2017 - Coach of the Year Debate and Prime Listener's Questions

Episode Date: December 20, 2017

Mark Schofield wades into the Coach of the Year debate, then takes your questions in another installment of Prime Listener's Questions.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Good morning and welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Wednesday, December 20th, 2017. Mark Schofield here in the big chair as I am five days a week. Reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Follow the work over at Inside the Pylon. Dropped another video yesterday, breaking down Josh Allen's six interceptions this past season, part of the interception series I'm doing over at Inside the Pylon. Already have done Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson,

Josh Rosen, Josh Allen. Now to the mix. Going to keep rolling through those QBs, breaking down their mistakes, seeing what we can learn about them. Check out the work over at Bleacher Report, NFL 1000 Project. I am the QB scout. Doing what I can over there to try to bring some contextual coverage to the quarterback position.

Locked and loaded show today. We're going to do a couple different things. First, I'm going to dive into Coach of the Year debate. It's kind of been simmering over the past couple of weeks. Honestly, if you ask me, I think it's the more interesting debate right now than MVP. I think MVP is kind of a... I mean, there are a couple different players

in the mix, but I think there's... An interesting point was raised by Steve Palazzo over at Pro Football Focus, and it was this. Tom Brady has been in the mix the entire season, basically, of the MVP discussion. Other guys have come in and out, like Wentz,

like Antonio Brown, Drew Brees in and out like Wentz, like Antonio Brown, Drew Brees in and out for a while, Russell Wilson in and out of that for a while. But the one constant in that debate has been Tom Brady. And I think, like Steve's point, that says it all. But I think Coach of the Year is a really interesting debate, so I'm going to have some thoughts on that. Then prime listeners' questions. Got three really good

questions here. Had a couple more that came in late, but with these three, really want to dive into those. So we'll do that. Also, Pro Bowl announcements came out. I'm recording this on Tuesday night. Patriots get Tom

Brady, James Devlin, Rob Gronkowski, and Matthew Slater into the Pro Bowl. Obviously, if you are listening to this show, you're likely a Pats fan and you're hoping that none of those guys play. Because they're doing something else during that time of the year. Interesting though, it's touched off, of course, the pro ball selection debate, which is always something. But like I said, I'm more intrigued by the coach of the year debate, and that's where we are going to start. And the way I see it, there are really sort of five guys that I've got in mind right now.

I had a sixth, and I think there was a stronger case for this coach earlier in the year, but given the team has kind of slid of late, they're looking at almost an identical record to last year. So it's hard to include Todd Bowles in this conversation now. But earlier in the year when the Jets were playing well,

I think Todd Bowles had done an incredible job, at least to start, out of the gate here. Now they're 5-9. They were 5-11 last year. It's hard to say that guy should be coach of the year now. But the start they had, though, Bowles was certainly in the mix. But the five guys I want to talk about,

I'm going to rank them sort of in the way I'm handicapping them, least likely to most likely. We're going to start with Mike Zimmer, the Minnesota Vikings. And, you know, Vikings were 8-8 last year. You know, now they've clinched the NFC North. They have two weeks to go. They're playing at a high level. They lose their starting quarterback after week one.

Have to roll out there with Case Keenum. And Keenum's been playing well. The defense has been playing well. I think this little turnaround here and the job that Mike Zimmer has done on both sides of the ball, particularly after losing Sam Bradford, he's certainly worthy

of consideration. But of the five guys I'm looking at, I would say at least in my view, he's got the longest odds to winning coach of the year. The next guy, look, this is locked on Patriots. So I do think the hoodie should at least merit some discussion. Interesting point was actually raised by my colleague Dave Archibald at Dave Archie on Twitter.

Please give him a follow. Archie probably knows many, many, many, many, many more things about the game of football than I do. And he made an argument recently in the Inside the Pylon Slack chat that Bill Belichick should be in the mix for coach of

the year probably every season. And sometimes for different reasons from season to season. And for example, this year, Patriots obviously dealing with injuries like a lot of other teams are. They lose Julian Edom. They lose Dante Hightower early, who's sort of the leader of that defense. They're counting on Derek Rivers to contribute something in terms of the pass rush.

They lose Ninkovic to retirement. The defense looks awful early. And here we are entering Week 16. They're in line for the number one seed, and they've clinched the division. It's at least worth discussion. Now, given the performances we've seen from some other guys, I doubt that he wins it.

But like Dave said, he could probably be in the mix every season given the success that the Patriots have from year to year. Now we're going to get into the three guys that I think have the strongest cases to make. I've got them ranked, again, in this order from least strong to most strong, but I could easily see any of these three guys winning Coach of the Year.

We're going to start with Doug Marone. You can't overstate the turnaround that we've seen from the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was a team that was 3-13 last year, last place in the AFC South. He caught a lot of stick in the offseason saying, we're going to go all in on defense, the run game. We don't want to see Blake Bortles throwing the ball. That's basically what he came out and said. But it's worked for them. Right now, they're the three seed in the AFC.

They've clinched a playoff spot. They can clinch the division. I believe with just one more win, I think they clinched the division. That's just another team with a tremendous turnaround here to go from 3-13 last year to on the cusp of clinching the division. Still potentially in the mix for a first-round buy. They would need some help to do that. But I think they're pretty close to locking in a three seed,

which is a great, great turnaround for them. Also, great chance to promote our friends over at Locked on Jaguars. There's some good people over there. Zach Goodall, one of the hosts of that show. Follow Zach on Twitter at Zach, Z-A-C-H underscore goodall, G-O-O-D-A-L-L as well as Christopher Thornton at Misto

Cristofo, M-I-S-T-O C-H-R-I-S-T-O P-H-O. Zach and Chris, they've been doing a great job of Locked on Jaguars all year. I was on their show a couple weeks back talking about draft quarterbacks, but now they're talking playoffs.

Give those guys a follow. Great shout out to them. But yeah, Doug Marone I think is in the mix. I don't think you can overstate what he's meant to that team, what he's meant to that organization right now. But I think he's the least strong of the candidates, mostly because

of what we've seen from the next two and what they've done with their young quarterbacks. Starting with Doug Peterson. You had Carson Wentz in the MVP conversation. Eagles still in line for the number one overall seed in the NFC. Clinched the division.

A team that was 7-9 last year, but people were looking at maybe Wentz isn't going to be the guy. But Peterson has that team playing well. That team believes right now. They lose Wentz. They come out. They win a hard-fought game on the road against the New York Giants, a divisional opponent. I know the Giants are bad this year, but still a good performance in that game. So I think Peterson is certainly worthy of consideration.

But I think the guy you have to give it to is Sean McVay. And last year, Rams weren't good. 4-12. The only reason they weren't in last place in the NFC West is because the 49ers were worse at 2-14. But let's look back at Jared Goff last year. You know, if for no other reason, Sean McVay should win coach of the year because of what he has done with Jared Goff. Jared Goff in 2016 was historically bad. You know, and I've used that phrase a couple of times talking about Joe Flacco this year,

but Jared Goff in seven starts last year completed 54.6% of his passes for just over 1,000 yards, five TDs, seven interceptions. Okay? Yards per attempt of 5.3. Bottom of the league there. He was 66th in the league in yards per attempt. I mean, Landry Jones was above him. RG3 was above him in yards per attempt. Connor Cook was above him.

And he only started one game. Actually, he only played in one regular season game. Adjusted net yards per pass and attempt. Jared Goff, dead last among qualified passers, 2.82. Just woeful, dreadful numbers. Goff was a bust this summer. The takes were flying that there was no way he was going to amount to even a serviceable quarterback now he gets under Sean McVay's tutelage yards

per attempt 8.0 tied with Alex Smith for fourth in the league, behind only Deshaun Watson. Oh, Deshaun, my son. We'll see you back soon. So he's behind Watson, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and tied with Alex Smith. That's pretty good company. Adjusted net yards per attempt, 7.58. Behind Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Alex Smith, and just ahead of Carson Wentz. Oh, Carson, my son.

God, why have you forsaken me? But seriously, that's an incredible turnaround from year one to year two as a passer. And it's because of what McVay's done with him. And you can see it in the numbers. You can see it in the film where he's anticipating throws. The ball's coming out on time. He's confident. So I think from those numbers, that turnaround alone,

just with Jared Goff, he deserves Coach of the Year. And then when you zoom out a little bit and see what he's meant to the team as a whole, how the Rams have turned it around and they're on the cusp of clinching a division, you know, that's the stuff of legends. So that's been sort of your rundown of the Coach of the Year candidates, at least how I've handicapped them. Maybe you agree, maybe you don't. It's fine either way.

We're here to have some fun. Speaking of fun, I want to remind everybody about the great opportunity over at draft.com. Get on board, everybody. We're going to have some fun this week, all right? Up next, we're going to do some prime listeners questions. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, in Locked on Patriots. Hey there, Locked on Patriots listeners.

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Just remember, use that promo code LONFL when you sign up. Order questions to the Prime Minister. Thangam debonair. Look, this is a professional operation. We have intros and everything. That, your intro to prime listeners' questions here. Got a couple of good ones in this week. Like I said, we got three that I really sort of want to dive into.

As always, feel free to reach out anytime on Twitter, at Mark Schofield. Always happy to provide some takes. And it doesn't have to be Patriots related. It doesn't have to be even football related. I was soliciting questions on Muppets Christmas Carol. Nobody took me up on that. To me, it's really

sort of the... There are three great Christmas Carol movies, in my opinion. Muppets Christmas Carol is among them. I like the Patrick Stewart one. You know. What can I say? I like that one. I like the Muppets one.

And I think George C. Scott. I think those are your three. The Holy Trinity of Christmas Carol adaptations, as it were. And I take Christmas carol seriously, man. I read it every December. I dust it off and read it again, and I'm really going firefield. So let's dive into Prime Listener's questions here.

We're going to start with my friend Josh Y. He is half of Woot and Y, perhaps the premier American football podcast down in Australia. You can follow Josh on Twitter at J-W-Y-E-N-F-L. I've been on their show before. It's great. I love those guys.

You can follow Woot and Y at W-O-O-T-A-N-D-W-Y-E. Seriously, those guys are great. Give them a follow. Get their podcasts into your rotation. He asked me a question. What is a catch? Josh, I wish I knew. And you know, this conversation has sort of dominated the football world this week.

And it's interesting as the dad of a six-year-old boy, Owen, a first grader, who he and his friends seem to be more and more cognizant almost every week about the NFL. It's incredibly amusing. And I actually went into a parent-teacher meeting. more and more cognizant almost every week about the NFL. It's incredibly amusing. And I actually went into a parent-teacher meeting with Owen's first grade teacher a couple weeks ago. And I kid you not, she asked me if I had played for the Redskins, which was amusing. But for whatever reason, Owen was a little confused. He saw some old pictures of me and thought I played for the Redskins.

And maybe I should have played along. But then the teacher said that each morning all the kids, they have their little conversation time, and they always talk about football. And even though Owen was watching the Pittsburgh-New England game with the family, we were all together watching it on Sunday afternoon, this was a conversation topic with the kids against, I guess, on both Monday morning and Tuesday morning to the point where, again, I'm recording this on Tuesday night.

The dinner time topic of conversation amongst my family with Owen 6, Simone 4, my wife and I, was whether that was a catch or not. And as Owen was talking, I pulled out the phone and recorded just a snippet of Owen's takes on the catch rule. I think that it was a touchdown because he, it's because he, I didn't see it. So I just think it's a touchdown.

And because I have a crown, I am the king. So I declare it a touchdown. From the mouths of babes, right? I'm sorry, New England, but Owen, King Owen, as he declared himself in there, has deemed that a catch. Apologies to you, Patriots fans. But, I mean, I guess maybe that's kind of indicative of where we are with the catch rules, that a six-year-old sees that and thinks that's a catch.

I mean, seriously, his mind was just like, why isn't that a catch? We were trying to explain the rule to him tonight at dinner. Couldn't wrap his mind around it. Maybe that should be the standard. If a six-year-old thinks it's a catch, it's a catch. But we still don't know. Next question here.

I know this is Locked on Patriots but again I'm here to serve all the listeners to the Locked on Patriots podcast even Jets fans play like a Jet

at play like a Jet one on Twitter the number one he's a good fan of the show it's a friendly friendly rivalry so there's respect on both sides.

And he's asking for some help. His question is this. You're the Jets and you end up with the 10th pick. Which of these choices would you make? Option A, break the bank for Kirk Cousins. Use the rest of your money in draft picks to build around him. Option B, stay at number 10 and draft Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson. Option C, give up the golf package to go up and get Rosen or Donald. That's a brilliant question.

I'm sorry, my friend. I'm going to have to go with option D, which is draft Josh Rosen, excuse me, Josh Allen, have a competition in training camp between him and Hackenberg for the starting job. I'm trying not to laugh here. Again, it's a Jets fan. I got to get in a little dig, right? Obviously, Josh Allen, we're going to leave him out of the mix here. And we're going to deal with the three choices that he outlines here. And I think those are three solid choices. And I was on the radio last week, my weekly hit out in Vancouver, and I was asked a similar question. What would I do?

How would I address the Browns quarterback spot? And I outlined basically two choices, path A and path B. And for the Browns, path A was you go all in on Cousins, draft quarterback mid-round, day three, maybe late day two. So then you've got Cousins, you've got rookie quarterback,

mid-round guy, and you've got Kaiser, and you should be able to get a starting quarterback out of that mix. Because you've got to get it right if you're the Browns. Option B for Cleveland if you can't get Cousins is double down on quarterback in the draft. Approach it like Washington did a couple of years ago. Go early, go mid-round. Again, you've got to figure it out. It's a little bit easier if you're the Jets, I think, because you still have Josh McCown who, maybe he's back, maybe

he's not. If I'm the Jets, I bring him back unless you get Cousins, unless you go get a veteran that you think can be the guy. Because I think Josh McCown, if you go the rookie route, can still be that

bridge to whenever that guy's ready. And he can be that important guy in the quarterback room that you can make fun of it, you can laugh it off, you can brush it off, but it matters. It helps. There's a reason Mark Sanchez is still sort of lurking on the sidelines in Chicago. It's because he can help.

He can help these young guys. He did it last year with Dak Prescott. So, I think there's still sort of a role for Josh McCown in New York City next year with the Jets. But more to the point here,

I like the way it's stacked up with option A and option B. I don't think option C where you give up a golf-type package to go up and get Rosen or Darnold. I just don't think that makes sense. And part of that is, at least with respect to Darnold, I'm not sold on Darnold yet for going that high. Rosen is in the mix to be my top QB in this class,

but I'm still not sold on him being worthy of a golf-type package. Maybe he is. But I think there's an injury history there that I think is going to need some consideration, just something to think about. So I'm wary on that option C. Option A, I think, is your plan A. You try to get Cousins,

and you make a serious, serious run at him. But if you can't make that work, then I think choice B is your plan B. You stay wherever you are in the first round. The hypothetical here is 10, okay. And I would be fine taking either Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson at 10, especially if I'm the New York Jets, because I look at what John Morton has done with their offense, their West Coast-based passing concepts.

I think with either of those guys, either one of them can step in and run the bulk of that offense pretty quickly, maybe even week one. And I think particularly if it's Lamar Jackson, you add in a couple of read option type elements, pretty quickly, maybe even week one. And I think particularly if it's Lamar Jackson, you add in a couple of read option type elements, a couple of zone read type things, give him a couple of chances, not build a strong quarterback run game around him,

but just enough to keep that backside defensive end honest, and you cook him with gas. I think both of those guys could run that offense, and I would be fine taking either one of those guys if I'm the New York Jets in the first round. I know Manesh Mehta wouldn't be, but my thoughts on that have been documented. But that's how I look at it. That's how I try to solve the Jets quarterback problem.

I make the run at Cousins. If you can't get that done, I stay where I am in the first round, and I draft one of those two guys. Now that's similar to the rookie pathway that I talked about with Cleveland, but I think if you've got Josh McGowan still in the mix, you've got that bridge, you've got that extra option.

You know, you still have, I guess, Christian Hankenberg and Bryce Petty to round out the quarterback room. But I think that's your path if you're the New York Jets. Up ahead here on Locked on Patriots, the final piece to this edition of Prime Listener's Questions, and it's a good one.

Saved the best for last, I think. Two other really good questions here that I wanted to dive into. But that's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, question three. This was submitted by Jake Burns, who is at Jake underscore Burns,

B-U-R-N-S, 18 on Twitter. He's a Browns fan. He does really good work. If you're a Browns fan, if you're not a Browns fan, but you just like watching breakdowns and stuff like that, every Monday he's breaking down Browns film. Really insightful stuff. Really interesting stuff.

I always peek in on it every Monday. Make sure that my reading of a couple of plays is what he's seen as well. Always good to cross-check your work. I'm a firm believer in that. Jake asked, where does Brady to Gronkowski rank on the all-time Brady to blank connections list?

And this actually sparked a little bit of discussion. Ryan Burns, also a Browns fan, smart football mind out on the West Coast, also a lawyer, so shout out to Ryan for that. He's at Football Sickness, FTBL, S-I-C-K-N-E-S-S. Follow both those guys, really smart football minds. He chimed in with, he would think it was first. Jake came back with maybe Moss gets some play.

Other people suggested Welker. So what I did was I started with the numbers. And I had six guys in mind for who the choice could be. And we'll kind of work our way up the list here. And I started with six. And I guess if we're going to rank these guys, we'll start at six with Troy Brown. Sorry, Mom.

I know Troy Brown, arguably your favorite Patriot of all time, but kind of sixth on this list. I think if you're making the top five wide receivers of the Brady era, I think he's in the mix there at five. Obviously, he had that big catch in Super Bowl XXXVI that we broke down on those historical shows I did over the bye week. Check those out if you haven't. Talked about that game with Matt Waldman,

Rich Hill over from Pat's Pulpit. But Brady to Brown, 325 completions on 485 attempts for a 67% completion rate, 3,334 yards, 15 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 6.9 yards per pass and attempt from Brady to Brown, 179 first downs. And a passer rating, a QB rating on those throws of 89.1. So that's okay. You can kind of see where it comes in sixth there.

Next, Deion Branch. Branch also had some big receptions from Tom Brady. And a couple of Super Bowls. Won a Super Bowl MVP. 328 completions on 538 attempts. 61% completion rating. As we'll see, that's the second lowest among the potential options here. 4,297 yards, 24 touchdowns, 9 interceptions,

8.0 yards per attempt, 226 first downs. QB ran in at 94.1 when Brady's thrown to Deion Branch. Those numbers are a bit better. These numbers also taken from Pro Football Focus, their Gameplay Finder. It's incredible. You type in Deion Branch, all plays, click. Five seconds later, there's everything you need to know about Deion Branch's receptions, including it can be sorted by quarterback.

It was just incredible. I was like, how am I going to find all these numbers? And five minutes later, I'm like, oh, well, what do I do now? It was great. Anyway, so those are branches numbers. Next, fourth I think on this list is Julian Edelman. And you don't want to succumb to recency bias too much. Obviously, Super Bowl 51, the catch off the turf, all that stuff.

But we're getting into some pretty elite company here. And Brady to Edelman, 401 catches on 600 attempts for a completion percentage of 66.8. Which is actually better than some, better than most. Only Brown and another guy we're about to get to were better. 4,263 yards, 24 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. Yards per attempt of 7.1. 221 first downs.

Quarterback ran in of 97.2. Again, pretty good numbers. All those guys, those three options were very good. But now we're getting into sort of the rarefied air here on this Brady to receiver X equation. And I think you can make a pretty good case for any of the next three guys, but one guy beyond all, I think, kind of really stands out. So I think it kind of comes down to, you know, the next two guys, who's in that number two slot. I think you can make a good case for either of them. Next is Wes Welker.

Here are Welker's numbers from Brady. 562 receptions. That's most out of any of these options on 779 attempts that's also the most completion percentage of 72.1 highest among any of these six choices 6275 receiving yards 34 touchdowns seven interceptions yards per attempt 8.132 first downs, passer ran in of 106.6. Those are really good numbers, but I still have him third on the list. Randy Moss at number two here, and these guys didn't play together for long. But the numbers are pretty incredible

when you stack them up against four of the other five options here. Moss, 193 catches, 332 attempts. Completion percentage is really 59.9%. A lot of that's due to Moss being just a true vertical downfield threat. A lot of throws with higher levels of difficulty there. 2,928 yards, 39 touchdowns.

13 interceptions. 39 touchdowns on 322 passing attempts. That's one of those things that you hear it and you just kind of giggle because it's like, what? 9.1 yards per attempt. 142 first downs. A passer rating of 112.7. Those numbers are incredible.

But here's the thing. Gronk bests almost all of them. Brady to Gronkowski, 465 catches on 707 attempts for a completion percentage of 65.8, which is better than Moss, better than Branch. It's just about there with Edelman.

It's behind Troy Brown. It's behind Wes Welker. Okay, 7,000 yards. 7,036 yards. Touchdown. This touchdown number, I double-checked it like six times. 74 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. I mean, that's more than some of these guys combined.

That's more than Moss and Welker combined. Moss with 39. Welker with 34. That's 73. And Gronk has 74. Yards per attempt. This is the one that blew my mind. Yards per attempt from Brady to Gronk, 10.0.

He's a tight end. 355 first downs, a quarterback rating of 126.2. I mean, you could probably make the case that Brady to Gronkowski is at least in the discussion for all-time quarterback to receiver connections. You know, people talk about

like Montana to Rice. And yeah, sure, of course. But those numbers are unbelievable. You know, and just for giggles, I looked up, started poking around at what people consider to be, you know, the all-time quarterback toto-receiver combination. And a duo that I mentioned a lot was Peyton Manning

to Marvin Harrison. So I looked it up. These guys played together forever. Okay? 958 catches on 1,544 attempts. Completion percentage of 62%. Over 12,000 yards.

112 touchdowns, 51 interceptions. Yards per attempt of 8.2. Passer rating of 98.6. You know, and completion percentage, yards per attempt, QB rating, Brady to Gronkowski is

statistically better. So I think Brady to Gronkowski is statistically better. So I think Brady to Gronkowski is the answer to the original question, which is, which is the best Brady to blank connection? Now, does Brady to Gronkowski sort of make it into the discussion for best quarterback to receiver duo in history? I think you can make the case.

The numbers are pretty darn good. You know what else is pretty darn good? All you guys listening to the show each and every day. Appreciate each and every one of you. This has been your Wednesday edition of Locked on Patriots. Did some Coach of the Year, did some Prime Listeners questions, even heard a little bit from my son. Pretty big day, don't

you think? We're going to start looking ahead to Buffalo now. We're going to dive in and spend the next two shows on the Buffalo Bills. Looking ahead to that. Thanks again for listening. Until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.