Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 22, 2017 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: December 22, 2017

Mark Schofield grudgingly debuts "As Foxboro Turns." Plus, predictions for Sunday as well as a holiday message to the loyal listeners of Locked On Patriots.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here in the big chair for Friday, December 22nd. We're getting down to crunch time, kids. Hopefully you're not listening to this while stuck waiting for a parking spot in a crowded mall. Hopefully your holiday shopping is done. If not, let me be your guide. Candlesticks are always nice. Reminder, you can follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. You can follow the work over at InsideThePylon, InsideThePylon.com, at ITPylon. Hey, here's a quick little plug for something over there. Brandon Silvers, quarterback, Troy University, just accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl. Very intriguing day

three guy. If you want to learn about him, there's a video over at youtube.com backslash insidethepylon that I did on him. Anticipation, manipulation with his eyes. Somebody to keep in mind as we get towards draft season. Also follow my work over at Bleacher Report, quarterback scout for the NFL 1000 Project. Year-end rankings are coming.

So look for that. What we're going to do today, we'll have our usual game day edition fair at the end, some predictions, some things to watch for on Sunday. But at the start, have to mention this, Dick Enberg, legendary broadcaster, passed away in his home here on Britain. That news break in here on Friday morning.

Ed Berg, a legendary voice covering sports on television. He was the play-by-play man for Super Bowl XX where the Patriots took a pretty big L against the Chicago Bears. Ed Berg, most known, I think, for his catchphrase Oh My! Thoughts and prayers out to his family of course. We have to start

with... Okay. I know it's Friday. I know we're up against the holiday here. I know we're up against the holiday here I know I have a cardiologist who doesn't want me to get my blood pressure up as an aside

cardiologist not happy with me after my Manesh Mehta rant right before Thanksgiving we might go down that path again here not with Manesh but let's focus on something here for a second, okay? Currently, the New England Patriots are 11-3. They are in line for the top seed in the AFC. Tom Brady having an MVP style season. Patriots coming off an improbable but extremely

important victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in what many are describing as the game of the year. So you would think that the main storylines coming out of Foxborough, coming out of New England this week, would be Super Bowl run, Tom Brady as MVP, is this the best team in the AFC, who can challenge the Patriots in the AFC, are we looking at a potential AFC championship rematch between New England and Pittsburgh for the second year in a row, can Jacksonville crash New England's party? You would think those would be the main storylines, but no. No, no, no, no, my friends, because this is the Boston media market we're talking about. And so the main storylines this week have been about Tom Brady's friend and, shall we say, physical advisor Alex Guerrero and whether

the Patriots screwed up the Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Those are the main storylines for an 11-3 team. So we are forced here at Locked On Patriots into an episode of As Foxborough Turns. And we can

start with the Alex Guerrero stuff and if you've been listening to the show this week, I ducked it, I ducked it, I didn't want to talk about it, but it lingers, so here we go. I still think this is such a non-issue. Obviously, Brady has a relationship with this guy. Obviously, Guerrero and Brady have business interests away from the NFL playing field

obviously with what we've seen from Tom Brady while it's been debunked some of Guerrero's sort of medical suggestions and recommendations have been debunked. Part of it, some of it, all of it is working for Tom Brady. I'm a couple of months older than him. Some days I can barely walk down the stairs. He's out there climbing the pocket and throwing strikes, throwing bullets

against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the cold rain and late in the fourth quarter to win a pivotal AFC game. You know, I'm trying to live the TB12 lifestyle here. I've got the app and everything. I'm... Maybe I'll see the results soon, but I don't know. But here's the thing.

Bill Belichick's got 52 other guys to worry about. And the stories are that Guerrero is starting to tell guys to do other things, was telling one player not to do squats. He refused to do them when asked to do them by the strength and conditioning coaches. The TB12 lifestyle put together by Tom Brady and Alex Guerrero is perfect for TB12, but it might not be perfect for the other 52 guys on the team.

And that's what Belichick has to worry about. So he made an executive head coach decision. Brady still has his guy at his side. Maybe he's not on one of the two private jets that the Patriots actually have in their fleet. But Guerrero still has his office over at Foxborough. This is a non-story,

but because this is New England, because this is Boston, this is what people are talking about. It's such a non-story. I... Nah! England because this is Boston. This is what people are talking about. It's such a non-story. Nah! Danny Picard had a nice little column. He has a podcast.

He has a column on Metro. Basically said, I find it hard to believe that Tom Brady isn't buying into the Patriot way anymore. And I think that kind of sums it up. Bill Belichick is the head coach of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is the quarterback of the New England Patriots. There is a chain of command there. Belichick made a decision that in his view is the best for all 53 guys for the organization

and Brady's going to live with it. There's no fractured relationship. There's no animosity between these two guys. These guys have been together longer than I've been married and it's worked for them to this point.

People are trying to read in between the lines. Oh, Belichick said at a press conference every year is different. Oh, this must mean that there's a fractured relationship. Really? Really? Really? If this team was 7-9 for the past five years, we might be saying there's a fractured relationship.

This team is coming off a Super Bowl win. They look poised to get back to the Super Bowl again. Stop with this. Stop with this. Stop with this. What are we doing? And now we got of course the Jimmy Garoppolo stuff. Did the Patriots trade the wrong guy? Would trade in Brady have been the right football move?

I think trade in Brady was the right football move. I'm quoting there. That's not me saying that. Did the Patriots get fleeced in the Garoppolo deal? I guess we got to do's not me saying that. Did the Patriots get fleeced in the Garoppolo deal? I guess we got to do this again too. Okay. Let's spell it out a little bit slowly now. Again, you heard Miguel Benzon at Pat's Cap on Twitter. He was on this show months ago.

Talking about how it was totally economically impossible to give Jimmy Garoppolo the kind of quarterback contract that he would want and keep Tom Brady on the roster. You can't allocate about half your salary cap to two players, one of whom would be a backup. You can't do that. Well, you can, but then I'd be playing wide receiver. And trust me, friends, nobody wants to see that.

So this notion that, you know, they had to keep both guys, throw that one out the window. Now, the growing argument seems to be that Belichick wanted to trade Brady. And there are conspiracy theories out there that Brady caught wind of it, went to Kraft. Kraft made some executive decision. People, just Occam's razor here. Do we want to go down the conspiracy theory road or do we want to accept the fact that

they had to trade one of these guys, number one. Number two, given the pure economics of it, and look, if there are people like Pat's cap, like Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap, that do incredible work breaking down salary crap considerations for every single team. And they're doing it on the outside. Every NFL team knew the situation. Every NFL team knew that one of those guys was going to have to get moved. And so it's simple bargaining. You know, I think back to my days when I was a lawyer, when I was, you know, I think back to my days when I was a lawyer When I was, you know, trying to settle cases

And if I had a poor case You know, let's say I represented somebody who got hurt in a car accident But there were some problems with the medical records There was maybe a prior or pre-existent injury that was exasperated But, you know, the herniated disc wasn't completely caused by the accident in question There are some weaknesses to the case. I'm not going to go out there and demand to settle the case for $15 million or whatever and expect to get it because there are some weaknesses. I might have to take a reduced settlement on it to get it done. It's the same sort of thing here.

Every other team knew that one of those quarterbacks was going to have to be moved. So if you're the San Francisco 49ers, you may want to move heaven and earth to get Jimmy Garoppolo, but why are you going to come out and offer two first-rounders when you know that the Patriots are in a bad negotiating spot. What you do, you give up a second rounder, which as it looks right now is going to be like the third or fourth pick in the second round. That plus New England's pick at the back of the first. You can package that up if you're New England and get to the top of the draft. You could get close to the top of the first round. So let's spin that hypothetical just for one second.

Let's say the Patriots want to address quarterback and they want to do it early and they want to go after, say, a Sam Donald. Could they package that pick at the top of the second, the pick at the end of the first, to get up and make that kind of move? Well, let's think about that for a second. You know, last year the Chiefs, they traded up to 10 to get Patrick Mahomes. And what did they give up?

They sent Buffalo their pick in the first round, which was 27, a third round pick pick, and a future first-round pick, which is this year's first-round pick. So can you get up into the top 10 with maybe pick 32, 31, plus pick 36, pick four in the second round, and maybe a later third-round pick. Yeah, you can do that. You know, people are sort of laughing off this Garoppolo second-round pick

as, oh, it's just a second-rounder. What do second-rounders really mean? Well, it's a pick near the top of the second round, and you can package it to get up if you want to. And what did the Patriots really give up in terms of Jimmy Garoppolo? They gave up a couple of months of him under contract because they were going to have to re-sign him,

which brings us back to the whole salary cap stuff. You know, so this idea that there are conspiracy theories and that Belichick, you know, he was maybe going to trade him to the Browns, but didn't because the Browns fired him. And again, stop with this. I'm just, I'm pulling my hair out here. This is crazy. Okay. I'm going to bring the blood pressure down here for a second. That's been today's episode. Hopefully it's the only episode we ever have of As Foxborough Turns.

In a second, we're going to do your usual standard game day edition fair. Talk about what I expect to see on the field. Some predictions. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield. And Locked on Patriots. All right. And locked on Patriots. Alright, let's dive in now to Sunday afternoon's matchup. Between the Patriots and the Bills. Obviously a rematch.

These two teams met back in week 13. Patriots had the better of the day on that afternoon. 23-3 victors over the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo. Now the two teams come to Foxborough to finish off their season set. And I guess we got to do it again here. I was kidding about, you know, as Foxborough turns, but it seems like we have to at least address another potential soap opera-ish storyline.

And that's, you know, other Bills going to have some sort of retaliation towards Rob Gronkowski because maybe you've forgotten, probably not, you know, Rob Gronkowski or the WWE style move on Tredavious White along the sidelines after the play was over gets suspended for a week, a game

that the Patriots end up losing down in Miami. There's all sorts of talk in the immediate aftermath, Tredavious White saying that everybody wants to go get Gronkowski. I think, again, you can throw that out the window from watching the Bills this year, from watching and listening to Sean McDermott. You know, tough, defensive-minded guy,

but I think his approach is going to be the right one. If you want to get some revenge on Rob Gronkowski and the New England Patriots, beat them. Go out there and beat them. Don't do something stupid that might get you thrown out of the game, that might get you flagged, that might cost your team. We're in the playoff hunt too. We got to win two straight games. What good does it do us if somebody comes out and takes a cheap shot at Gronkowski, gets thrown out of the game, and we're now down somebody on the defensive side of the ball? So I think you can throw that out the window.

What you can't throw out the window are some numbers here. In the build-up to the game the last time, I predicted big day for Deion Lewis. I said the Patriots are going to come out there. We're going to run the ball, establish the run. Lewis was going to do some good stuff in the power rushing game. Lewis, 15 carries for 92 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry against the Bills that week.

Burke had 12 for 78, averaging 6.5. Two touchdowns as well. Lewis had a big run of 44 yards. Burke had a big run of 31 yards. Doing some different stuff in the run game. Shaq Mason, if you remember, had a pretty good game. Actually, a really good game, run blocking.

There was a piece up on Inside the Pile. Excuse me. I forget all the places I write for. A piece up over at LockedOnPatriots.com breaking down Shaq Mason's midgame. Something to watch, though. Joe Thune has struggled a little bit in pass pro the past couple of weeks. He gave up two sacks in that game. That's something to watch.

But now look into this matchup. I think, again, New England's going to look to establish the run because Bills are ninth in the league in terms of giving up yards per ground on the game. They give up over 120 yards per game on the ground. Only seven teams are worse. Among them, the New England Patriots. They're giving up 4.2 yards per attempt on the

ground. That's 14th, but there are a lot of ties in there. In terms of DVOA over at Football Outsiders, overall, Buffalo's defense, mid-tier, 15th in the league. They're 12th against the pass, but 28th in DVOA against the run. So I think New England's going to, again, establish the run.

With Burkhead's knee injury, I expect a huge day from Deion Lewis. I think he's going to have another big afternoon. Had a big afternoon the previous time these two teams met. 15 for 92. I expect him to get into the end zone this week. So that's

kind of what I'm looking for when the Patriots have the football. When the Bills have the ball, you've got to worry about McCoy. You've got to worry about Charles Clay. They love that tight end throwback stuff, something that the Bills do a lot. And you've got to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket. You've got to make him beat you from the pocket. Don't let him get outside on the edge where he's dangerous. Don't let him get into those scramble drill situations. Keep him contained in the pocket.

Make him make throws from the pocket. He can do it. The issue is there are times when he's slow and deliberate with his progression reads, and that can hurt him. Bills were driving early in the game last time these two teams met, and then he threw an interception to Eric Lee on the goal line, was slow and deliberate with his reads there. It allowed Lee to drop into his zone, and Taylor threw it right to him.

Those are the type of things you can do as a defense against Tyrod Taylor to force some mistakes, force a turnover or two, and turn the game to your advantage. In terms of predictions, look, Patriots favored by 13. They're given 13 points, and I'm okay with that. I think New England wins this in a two-touchdown type game. In terms of the over-under, it's 46. I'm thinking the under here. We saw somewhat of a low-scoring game last time these two teams played. I think we see something similar.

I think we see something like a 28-10 type game. New England covers the 13. Bills maybe get a touchdown late. But I think this is one that the Patriots are going to go out and take care of. There have been all these swirling stupid storylines this week. But I think once the game kicks off, once that opening kickoff hits, Patriots go out and they take care

of business. But that's been your game day edition here of Locked On Patriots. Patriots obviously playing Christmas Eve. I will be back for a Christmas Day edition breaking it all down. And since it is the Christmas season, I do want to close this game Day edition breaking it all down. And since it is the Christmas season,

I do want to close this game day edition with a thank you for the gift you all have given me, the most incredible holiday gift of all. And that is, that is listening, enjoying the show, sharing the show with people, interacting with me on Twitter.

You know, because as I've said before, and as I will say again, there are so many incredible Patriots podcasts, websites. If you're a Patriots fan, this is the golden era for you, both on the field with what they're doing as a team and away from the field with the way that the team is being covered because you can't you know throw a stick without hitting somebody that's covering the New England Patriots and so I know that you have so many options to listen to so many different places to go to get Patriots covered and the fact that, you know, there are thousands of you that listen each day, it means the world to me. I do sincerely thank you. And if you do follow me on Twitter,

you know, recently I've been sort of promoting the shows on Twitter with, oh, you know, you're about to, it's lunchtime on the East Coast, you're about to leave your cubicle and head out into the dark, gray, cold world to get 55 minutes away from the daily grind. Let Locked On Patriots be your soundtrack for that. And part of the reason I do that, there's some dark gallows humor in there, but that used to be me. That used to be me in an office, living the lawyer life, beaten down by it from time to time. But then when you've got the commute home or sometimes in the commute in, when you're trying to just distract yourself, maybe for those last 20 minutes before you get to work, I would love to plug myself into a podcast

and just have somebody like take my mind off of it for maybe 20 to 25 minutes. And, you know haven't been on that side of it to now be on the other side to be the guy that can you know maybe give you that 20-25 minutes away that means a lot and i know what that's like and you know if i'm able to do that for some of you maybe for many of you then then I'm ecstatic beyond my wildest dreams because to have been on the other side of it and to now be here, it's an incredible little flip in my personal life here.

But if I could give each and every one of you just those 20, 25 minutes away from it all, whatever line of work you're in, that's great. That's just wonderful to know. But like I said, I will be back on Christmas Day breaking it all down.

Probably drop late on Christmas Eve as we're all waiting for Santa. Until then, have a wonderful, wonderful Christmas, everybody. Keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Peacock.