Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots December 28, 2018 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: December 28, 2018

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Hey there everybody, welcome on into a game day edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair on today, Friday, December 28th, 2018. Happy to be with you. Maybe this is your last work day of the year. Maybe not. Maybe you're going to be working away over the weekend. Whatever the case may be, happy you've got me along for the ride. What we're going to do today are somewhat standard game day fare. At the outset though, we're going to talk playoff implications for week 17 across the league, league wide. This is one of those weeks the schedule makers back, Roger Goodell back in 2009. He thought, look, we're seeing all these teams rest in starters, shutting it down in Week 17.

I want these Week 17 games to matter. That's led to a lot of sort of playoff implications for games in Week 17. That's led to some win and get in, some basic playoff games here in Week 17. We've got another one on Sunday night. That Colts-Titans game is a win and end type scenario. So lots of exciting stuff set to play out league-wide this weekend. So we're going to get into all of that. Then our standard game day stuff, what I'm going to be watching from when the Patriots have the football.

Get a chance to look back at that meeting between the Jets and the Patriots a couple weeks back, as well as taking a look at Chris Hogan. Got a question on Twitter about Chris Hogan. Didn't get a chance to work that into yesterday's show? So we're going to talk a little Chris Hogan. And then we're going to talk some Sam Donald. We haven't seen him yet. The New England Patriots have yet to see Sam Donald up close, but I've taken a look at him throughout his rookie season.

I got some thoughts on him as well. Before we get into all of that though, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites. As I've said, friends, if there's a website that is covering the game of football, chances are I'm covering it for them. Also, don't forget, Locked on Patriots Slack channel.

Hit me up for an invite at Mark Schofield on Twitter or mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com. You can bet that once these games kick off this weekend, that Locked on Patriots Slack channel is going to be rocking and rolling. So get on in on that at mark.schofield on Twitter if you'd like the invite or as I said, mark.schofield at insidethepylon.com. Let's talk some playoff scenarios and implications for Week 17. Lots of stuff going on. We'll start in the NFC, work our way through that quickly.

Here's what's clinched so far, in case you've forgotten. The Saints have clinched the NFC South division title, as well as home field advantage. So that's done. All the divisions are locked down. The Rams have the West, the Bears have the North, and the Cowboys have clinched the East, as well as the Seattle Seahawks, who have clinched a playoff berth. Here's some stuff that's on the line though in Week 17. The Rams, they play San Francisco at 425 on Sunday.

That's 425 Eastern. They clinch a first-round bye with either a win or a Chicago loss or tie. Kicking off at the same time is that Bears game at Minnesota. The Bears can clinch a first-round bye with a win and a Rams loss. Matt Nagy has said, look, we're playing our starters. We'll check that score at halftime. If the Rams are blowing out the Niners and maybe I'll sit guys down. Otherwise we're keeping the foot on the gas pedal. So that's going to be fun to watch play out

late Sunday afternoon. Those Minnesota Vikings, they get into the dance with either a win or a tie or an Eagles loss or tie. And speaking of those Eagles, they also play 425. They clinch a berth with an Eagles win and a Minnesota loss or tie. Those Eagles, they play at Washington. The Josh Johnson experiment rolls on. So that 425 window is going to be very interesting because everything that's left to be played for in the NFC is on the table kicking off at 425. Let's go to the AFC. What's clinched so far? The Chiefs have clinched a berth. The Chargers have clinched a berth. The Texans have clinched a berth.

None of those teams have clinched a division yet. So every other division but for the AFC East is up for grabs on Sunday. The Patriots have clinched the AFC East division title. Let's sort of work our way backwards through this, starting with a team that has a narrow path. They've got to get some help. The Pittsburgh Steelers at 8-6-1. They host the Bengals at 4-25. They clinch the AFC North division title with a Pittsburgh win and a Baltimore loss or tie, or a Pittsburgh tie and

a Baltimore loss. They can still get in as the final wildcard team if they win and that Colts-Titans game ends in a tie. Interesting scenario there. I can't imagine that the Colts and the Titans are going to play for a tie there, especially when you consider the Titans. They have a couple of ways that they can get in. They play Sunday night at home against the Colts. They win the AFC South and get a first round bye. If they win, Houston loses, New England loses, and Baltimore loses or ties. Now they win the division with a win and a Houston loss. They get a playoff berth win, a win. And who are they going to be playing? Well, the Colts.

On Sunday night, that game in Nashville, the Colts clinched the AFC South Division title with a win and a Houston loss. The Colts clinched a playoff berth with a win or a tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie or an Indianapolis tie and a Baltimore loss. So there is that little, little, little scenario where the Colts can see that Pittsburgh or Baltimore has lost and they can play for a tie. Tie doesn't get the Titans in. Tie gets the Colts in. Kind of interesting how that could play out. You can't imagine, though, that that game's going to end up in a tie, but hey, stranger things have happened. The Los Angeles Chargers, they play 425 at Denver.

They clinched the AFC West division title and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a Chargers win and a Chiefs loss or tie or they tie Denver and Kansas City loses. So the Chargers could still end up your one seed. I've actually seen there's a possibility of a Chiefs Patriots wildcard game. There's a crazy playoff scenario that is possible. Baltimore Ravens, they play Cleveland at home 425. They clinch the AFC North division title and a first round buy with a Baltimore win, a New England loss, a Houston loss, and Houston-Tennessee does not end in a tie. Or a Baltimore win, a New England loss, a Houston loss,

and Baltimore clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston. Say that three times fast. They clinch the AFC division North with a win or a Pittsburgh loss or a Baltimore tie and a Pittsburgh tie. Baltimore just manages to get in if they tie an Indy and Tennessee tie. There you go. Houston, they've got a lot to play for, but they play early Sunday at 1 p.m. home against Jacksonville.

They clinched the AFC South Division title in home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with a Houston win, a New England loss or tie, a Kansas City loss, a Chargers loss, and the Houston clinches a tie in strength of tiebreaker over Kansas City. Again, one of those crazy scenarios. They clinched the AFC self-division title in a first round bye with a Houston win and a New England loss or tie or a Houston win plus a Kansas City loss plus a Chargers loss and Houston clinches a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over Kansas City, or a Houston tie and a New England loss, or Colts-Titans tie plus a New England loss plus

a Baltimore win plus Houston clinching a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over Baltimore. Most likely scenario, Houston clinches the AFC South Division title with a Houston winner tie or a Colts-Titans tie. There's Houston's paths. We'll skip over the Patriots for now because that's where we want to finish because this is locked on Patriots. The Chiefs, here's what's on the line for them when they play 425 at home against Oakland. They clinch the AFC West Division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. There you go. Kansas City, they win, they clinch the division, and they clinch home field throughout the playoffs.

Or if they tie and the Chargers lose or tie, or if the Chargers lose, if the Pats lose or tie, and the Texans lose or tie, or the Chargers lose, the Patriots lose or tie, and Kansas City clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston. There you go. Houston clinches the AFC West division title in a first round bye with a Chargers loss and New England loss for tie or a Chargers loss and a Houston loss for tie or a Chargers

loss and Kansas City clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over Houston. Kansas City just clinches the division with a Chargers loss or a Kansas City tie and a Chargers tie. And finally, the New England Patriots. Here's what's at stake for them, at least when the games get played. They play one o'clock at home at Gillette against the Jets. They clinch home field advantage throughout. They can still get the one seed with a win, a Chiefs loss, and a Chargers loss. They get a first round bye with a win. Boom. Done. All they have to do, beat the Jets, you get the two-seat locked up. If they tie the Jets, a Houston loss or tie gets it done,

or a Baltimore loss or tie plus a Houston loss plus a Tennessee loss or tie, and they still manage to get into the two-seat. That's what's at stake. What does it mean? We know what it means. We know how important it is for the New England Patriots to lock up that two-seat, for Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to get a week off to get that first round playoff game in the divisional round your first playoff game in the divisional round at home

at Gillette with a chance given an upset that you get the AFC championship game at Gillette that's what's at stake. A massive week league-wide and obviously a massive game for the New England Patriots. How is that game going to play out?

That's what we're going to talk about next on this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Friday game day edition of the Locked on Patriots podcast. And I'm going to talk now, Jets, Pats. We're going to talk first about what I'm expecting when the New England Patriots have the football. But what I want to do first, this is sort of the beauty of sort of the way I do these shows. Again, I'm old school.

I'm a man. I'm almost going to turn 42 here. And I do everything by pen and paper, and I save everything. And so I was able to just go into my little accordion file here, pull out my notes from the post-game show that I did, the glorious Victory Edition episode back late November when the Patriots went into MetLife Stadium, beat the New York Jets 27-13,

pulled out my notes from every single play from that game as well. And let's sort of revisit where the Patriots sort of stood after that game. It was a win that got them to 8-3. It was a road win. Hey, we like road wins. We'd like to see road wins if they're necessary down the stretch here. The great, the good,

and the bad from that game. The great we saw misdirection from the offense. And this is something that I talked about going into that week, studying that Jets defense on tape. You saw every player not named Jamal Adams was susceptible to getting out of place, getting out of their spot when they saw misdirection. The Patriots offense, they did some misdirection stuff.

For example, on their fourth drive of the game, the very first play they come out in 21 personnel, they were on jet motion, end around with Patterson. It was exactly the kind of stuff that I was talking about, and that was a gain of 11. Actually, I take that back. They show the jet motion, and they run Sonny Michel. It was a gain of 11, but it's exactly the kind of stuff that I was talking about. So I'm expecting to see a lot more of that.

Touchdown pass to Rob Gronkowski early in the game. Sort of like to see that, 34-yard pass. We'd like to see Rob Gronkowski early in the game. Sort of like to see that 34-yard pass. We'd like to see Rob Gronkowski catching 34-yard touchdown passes, so we hope to see more of that. We liked Josh Gordon's hands in that game. Unfortunately, we will not see that. But what we do like to see, the interior of the offensive line had a very good game. Shaq Mason, Joe Thune, David Andrews, they were fantastic in this game,

as was Sonny Michel, who had 133 yards and 21 carries and one touchdown. Matter of fact, the run game had over 200 yards for the first time since 2014, that Jonas Cray game. And speaking of the offense, the second half offense was fantastic. They went field goal, touchdown, touchdown on their first three possessions of the second half. This was a game that was 10-10 at halftime. Jason Myers had a 55-yard field goal with under a minute to go in the first half. It was a 10-10 game at the half.

Patriots, though, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, and come out of the gate there in that game. So that was good. Some other offensive stuff, the touchdown to Julian Edelman, 21-yard touchdown. That was sort of a gaudy concept. He's in the slot. He's running an option.

They went wide outside with Gronkowski on the outside. He runs the go, sort of clears out the sideline. Little easy pitch and catch. Sits down on a hitch route out of the slot. Peels off to the outside.

Gets a Gronk from, gets a block from Gronk downfield, touchdown. We'd like to see more of that. We'll talk about some of the defensive stuff. The bad things that we did see, even though Tom Brady had a great game, became the new leader in yards passing in both regular season and playoff games combined.

This was the first game where I really sort of saddled in and noticed that problem with Brady throwingided throw into the left flat, which, again, if he has a problem with that left leg, that knee, the rumors are flying. We'll want to watch that. Those were some of the good things we saw from the offense. Again, that's what we're going to be talking about here. I did get a question about Chris Hogan from one of the listeners to the show show and I did want to sort of address Chris Hogan here for a minute because I think offensively when the Patriots have the football we are going to see

run game we're going to see a steady dose of Sonny Michel look again they ran over 200 yards against the Jets when these two teams played back around Thanksgiving time. I can't imagine that the Patriots are going to suddenly go in and air it out looking at how this game played out the last time these two teams met. And so I think you're going to see a sort of steady dose of Sonny Michel. You're going to see the run game. You're going to see them sort of try to get that going, take the pressure off the pass game, take the pressure off Tom Brady, do the things they need to do from a run game perspective.

With respect to Chris Hogan though, I did get a question about Chris Hogan, whether the Patriots were sort of, whether Brady was looking in his direction, whether Hogan was getting an open and things like that. And with respect to Hogan, what was interesting sort of watching this game last week against Buffalo, there were some opportunities for Hogan in the downfield passing game. For example, if you want to look at a play where Chris Hogan was opening and didn't get the football, there is a play in that game that sort of stood out to me. For example, I know Evan Lazar, he noted this as well.

He did a thread, one of his post-game threads. Again, follow Evan at E-Z-L-A-Z-A-R on Twitter. 12-0-1 mark of the third quarter. It's 14-3 to win. The Patriots face a third and six on their own 16-yard line. This is their second offensive possession of the second half. The first one was one play thrown into direction of Gronkowski that gets picked. Brady's in the shotgun. Hogan single receiver to the right. James White staggered to the right of Brady. So it's basically White to the right side of the quarterback and Chris Hogan. Hogan, tight split. He's at the top of the numbers, the football on the right hash mark. He is going to run a curl route right by the sticks James White is going to run a swing Buffalo drops into

a cover three type coverage so the corner across from him has to respect the vertical route when Hogan makes his break and Brady's looking right at him Hogan is at the first down marker and he has about four yards of cushion between him and the nearest defender. There's a defender going to the flat to cover White. Brady looks at it and checks it down to White in the flat, who goes for four yards. And Brady has time to make this throw. I don't know why he doesn't pull the trigger on it,

but Hogan is open, and you can tell Hogan is not happy because Hogan, he sees the pass go to White. He tries to peel back to make a block, and he sort of gets in the way of the cornerback, but then you can see him walking back to the sidelines with his arm up wondering what he has to do to get thrown the football,

and so Chris Hogan is getting there. Brady's not throwing on the ball at times. And what's interesting about this, yes, the Bills blitz, but Brady still has a window to get this out. It's not like he's pressured and is forced to make this throw. He just doesn't throw it to Hogan. So that was interesting to see. So to sort of address the question, H just doesn't throw it to Hogan. So that was interesting to see. So to sort of address the question,

Hogan is getting some opportunities to get open. His quarterback's not throwing him the ball. That's something to watch also on Sunday. Up next, we're going to talk Sam Darnold as well as the stuff we saw last time these two teams played. That's ahead on this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mike Schofield back with you now to close out this Friday game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mike Schofield back with you now to close out this Friday game day edition of the Locked on Patriots podcast.

And what we're going to do now, I'm going to sort of revisit that game back at the end of November, that Patriots-Jets game that the Patriots did win down in MetLife Stadium. Again, looking back at our notes from that game, the great, the good, and the bad from that glorious victory edition installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast, and there were some good things that we saw from the defense in that game. For example, Stephon Gilmore had a big interception in that game.

That was a big pick in that spot, and Patriots sort of needed a turnover at that point in the game. Gilmore gets an interception, the Jets' fifth drive of the game. The Patriots were just forced to punt. Brady, actually if Patriots had just kicked the field goal to make it a 10-7 game. First 10 situation, defense needs to step up. They've gotten some good field position. You get the interception.

Trey Flowers gets some pressure. Stephon Gilmore would pick exactly what the team needed at that spot. So that was a big play sort of early in that game before halftime. Landon Roberts had a pretty good game against the run. Dante Hightower got some pressure in spots. Van Noy, Chun, they had some good games against the Jets. The defense in the second half of that game was fantastic. They gave up basically just, I believe, one scoring drive,

but they made a number of big plays. They get sort of a big stop. Jets' seventh drive of the game. a number of big plays. They get sort of a big stop. Jets' seventh drive of the game. It was a 36 situation. They get pressure from Van Noy, forces a throw in completion, and they're forced to settle for three. So that was a big play at that moment. And then on ensuing Jets' possession, their eighth drive of the game after the Patriots get the touchdown to Edelman. You get a 20-13 lead for New England. Third and 14 play. Blitz finally gets home. Effort sack from Dietrich Weiss. Nuts stunt him and Adam

Butler inside. Weiss kicks inside. You get the sack there. Big sort of play at that moment. Then the Patriots score again to make it a 27-13 game and sort of kind of take over that game. And so, you know, the defense in the second half was very good in that game as well. They gave up a couple of scrambles. There was a play where Josh McCown was able to scramble early in the second half. Adam Butler was kind of freelancing. He comes inside when he should be contained and on the outside. So they were able to convert there.

There were some penalties as well. Stephon Gilmore had a holding penalty in the third quarter. Jonathan Jones missed a tackle at the end of the first half that allowed them to get closer and kick that field goal right before halftime to make it a 10-10 game. So it wasn't a flawless defensive game, but the Patriots were able to get it done on the defensive side of the ball. But let's face it.

Talking about the Jets' offense is different right now than it was back then because Josh McCown got the start for them in that game. Now we get our first look at Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold had sort of a tough stretch. That game against Miami, he throws four picks, and then he misses a couple of weeks with that foot injury. And whether it was a foot injury or they were just taking a moment to sort of sit a young quarterback down and say,

Look, man, you're our future. You had a bad game. Let's get yourself right. Whatever it was, it seems to have paid off because in the three starts he's made since then, they've gone one and two in those games. They got a win at Buffalo, then back-to-back losses against Houston, against Green Bay, both of those one-score games. Sam Darnold, six touchdowns, just one interception. He had an 83.7 quarterback rating

in that win at Buffalo, where he goes 16 of 24 for 170 a touchdown and an interception. Then against Houston, goes 24 of 38 for 253, two touchdowns, no interceptions. Then last week, his best game of the season from a statistical standpoint, 24 of 35 for 341, three touchdowns, no interceptions, quarterback rating of 128.4 yards per attempt of 9.74, his best yards per attempt of the season, adjusted yards per attempt of 11.46, the only time he's gone over nine in adjusted yards per attempt in a game this entire season. We are getting Sam Darnold perhaps rounded into form. Now, we all know, look, rookie quarterbacks against Bill Belichick,

they struggle. Josh Allen did last week, so there is that. But it does seem like Sam Darnold is the real deal. I just got done watching their game against the Packers, and I do have some notes and some takeaways. First off, look, the arm is pretty good. The accuracy is good for the most part. The athleticism is there.

You're going to have to spy him or use the sort of Josh Allen contain game plan against him. If he sees grass, he's going to go. If he sees man coverage, he's going to take off. They do like to move him around. They do like to move him on boot concepts and things like that. So you will need to be aware of that. Interesting that I saw on film of their first, let's say one, two, of their first three sort of real offensive possessions, actually the first four real

offensive possessions. I take that back. Either the first play or the second play of the drive was an overload package, either an extra, lineman, Dozier, comes in, either as a tight end, the third tight end, or the second tight end. So they go jumbo on you, and they throw to Robbie Anderson. The first play of the game against the Packers, 13 personnel look, but with Dozier in there as an extra blocker, as a tight end. So you get six offensive linemen.

They just run a play-action play, a one-rece one receiver route Robbie Anderson on a backside out route throw slightly off target but Anderson makes the catch their second offensive possession first play again it's a 12 personnel look this time with that extra offensive lineman six offensive lineman they go Yankee Anderson on the dig Donald throws to Anderson for a completion their third third offensive drive. This one kicks off the second quarter. Jumbo again. Six offensive linemen. Dozier in there.

They go jumbo, play action, duel in comeback routes, one along each boundary. He throws it to Robbie Anderson for a comeback route. Are you sensing a pattern here? This is their drive starter right now. They go jumbo, six offensive linemen, and they find a way to get Robbie Anderson the football. Then they have a kickoff return for a touchdown. Then they go into a two minute drill. So it's not really the same kind of situation because you're in two minute. You're not going to come an extra offensive lineman out there. Their first offensive series of the third quarter, this starts at the 8-7 team mark. They come out regular for package. They go running

back screen to Elijah McGuire. Second play, jumbo, Dozier in, six offensive linemen. They go 5-8-5. Comeback routes along the boundary, post route in the middle of the field. Who does he throw to? Robbie Anderson. What route? The comeback route. You've got to be ready for that.

They're going to show you extra offensive linemen, get you thinking run, and they're going to find a way to get Robbie Anderson the football. So that's something definitely to be aware of. He likes throwing seam routes to Christopher Herndon. If they get into a red zone, if they get into a third and five, third and six type situation, he is going to throw that route. Whether it's Chun, whomever is covering Herndon, you have to be ready because even if it looks covered, he is going to force that throw in there. So you have to be ready for that. Fake bubble, slot screen, slot seam. That's what they do. They hit that for a big play against the Packers. Robbie Anderson on a vertical route. They will show you that smoke screen. Don't bite on it.

Don't rally up to it. Make sure you play your man because they hit that for a touchdown with Robbie Anderson. You've got to be ready for that route combination. He's a good quarterback. He tries to create at times. If you contain him in the pocket, you can get some sacks on him. Second and eight situation on their opening drive of the game. They motion to empty. They run six concept.

Everybody curls. Nothing there. He tries to create. They chase him down for a sack. That's what you got to do. You've got to show him some different looks. You've got to show him some exotic zone coverages. You've got to drop seven at times.

You've got to drop eight at times. Keep your eyes on him. Don't give him an escape route. You can make some plays against this kid. It's going to be similar to the Josh Allen game plan. I think you drop some stuff into coverage. You give him some exotic looks. He's going to make mistakes.

Just because he hasn't made a mistake for the past couple of weeks doesn't mean he's not due for a couple. I think you can get him to make a couple of mistakes. Get yourself, get your offense a couple of short fields. The defense can do that. The Patriots will do that. The Patriots will win this game. Whether they end up with the one or the two, that will remain to be seen.

But I think looking at the Jets on tape, looking at their defense on tape, they can run the ball on them. They can hit a couple of plays here and there in the passing game on them. They can confuse Sam Darnold at times, be wary of what they do, their drive starters and stuff like that but the Patriots should be able to come out.

I'm looking at this game. I see a 28-13 kind of game similar to what these two teams played last time but I think the Patriots take care of it. The opportunity is in front of them. They get it done and then we see how the rest of it shakes out Sunday afternoon. Whatever happens, here's our schedule going forward. I will be back for a Sunday

morning tailgate show. Maybe you get some last minute DFS you want to play. We've got some playoff games and stuff in the college game to talk about so there'll be some exciting stuff to talk about come Sunday morning. Last minute news notes and then hopefully a glorious victory first round buy edition of the Locked on Patriots podcast awaits us

for Sunday night. Either way, I will be here for you twice on Sunday getting it done, getting you ready for the playoffs. The Patriots are in. We know that. Where they start, that remains to be seen. But I'll be here with you. Until next time, have a fantastic, fantastic weekend and keep it locked right here to me,

Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.