Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots February 1, 2018 - Crossover Part 2

Episode Date: February 1, 2018

Solak. Kist. Schofield. The second part of the Crossover Event. Expectations for the Eagles' offense against the Patriots' defense.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Good morning and welcome on into Locked On Patriots for Thursday, February 1st, 2018. Mark Schofield here in the big chair. And for today's show, we are doing part two of the Locked On Eagles, Locked On Patriots crossover event. Myself, Michael Kist, Benjamin Solak, breaking down our expectations, what we hope to see, or maybe don't hope to see, when the Eagles offense takes the field during Super Bowl 52. As always, follow me on Twitter, at Mark Schofield.

Follow the content over at LockedOnPatriots.com. New pieces going up all the time. I'm going to be getting to hear the end of the week now, my expectations for when the Eagles have the ball, starting off with how the Patriots adjust to the RPO looks they got from Jacksonville in the AFC Championship game and what we might glean from that as the Patriots defense looks to slow down similar plays

from the Philadelphia Eagles. As always, again, follow the work on Twitter. Reminder, 240-670-6016. That's 240-670-6016. Leave me takes, voicemail messages, texts. Trying to do a show on Saturday featuring you, the loyal listeners of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Doing a reward for everything you guys have done for me this year.

Without further ado, however, the crossover event, part two, between the Locked On Patriots podcast and the Locked On Eagles podcast. All right, the gang is back. Mark Schofield of Locked On Patriots, Benjamin Solak of Bleeding Green Nation, and Locked On Eagles.

Guys, big news, real big news. There was a trade last night that went down. There were several sources that were right, and then they were wrong, and then they were right again regarding Kendall Fuller. Here's what happened. Alex Smith gets traded to the Washington Redskins for a third round pick and Kendall Fuller.

And what is going on? Because what, $70 million for Alex Smith is what the Redskins extended them for? Four years, 94 mil, $70 million. Let me ask you guys right off the bat and whoever wants to take this can take this. Is this the loudest kicking of a can down the road that you've ever heard in the NFL?

Yeah, that was my first reaction to it. Okay, you have a quarterback of questionable value in Kirk Cousins. You haven't been able to decide what he means to you long-term. And then you bring in a guy like Alex Smith, who is also debatable value depending on which system he is uh who is older and really the only thing you don't have with smith that you already have with cousins was the noxious relationship right now the

fact that they traded for him with an extension whether or not you think that extension was a good idea hint you don't it kind of removed that that issue of figuring out what smith's value was going to be right at the end of his contract because smith only had one year left on his contract when he was still with kansas city but at the same time do we think that the other 52 players on this redskins roster are good enough that they can power a deep playoff run with alex smith under the helm because i like alex smith i like the way he plays I don't think the Redskins have that firepower they just gave up an excellent slot corner and some pretty significant draft capital is Alex Smith taking you further than Kirk Cousins that's where I'm not sold let's ask the quarterback guru Mark what do you think I mean look first off anytime you get

a chance to let go of a 29 year old-old quarterback for a 34-year-old quarterback. You got to do it. And lock him up for four years, 71 million. I mean, we don't know the final numbers, but I saw at least one tweet last night from Mortensen that said it was like 71 million guaranteed. That's guaranteed for injuries. Okay, so that's what that is. But still, anytime you lock up Alex Smith for the next five years, you got to do it. No, I mean, I think what's interesting in sort of the evolution of Alex Smith over the course of the 2017 season was the knock on him coming into this year was won't stay aggressive,

won't maintain aggression, won't throw the deep ball. There was some thought, you know, in the offseason that maybe, oh, you draft Patrick Mahomes, who's an aggressive quarterback who likes to slant it deep. Maybe some of that rubs off on Alex Smith a little bit he sees this what I have to sort of do and he does that for the first half of the season first five games Alex Smith is your MVP but then they go through that sort of brutal like what was it two and five stretch yeah where it's suddenly like you see the old Alex Smith come to fruition where he's like not challenging windows he's not pulling the trigger when he should he's being that conservative guy and he got it sorted out at the end but when push came

to shove the closing minutes of that game you know third and fourth quarter against Tennessee the same sort of conservative Alex Smith sort of reared his ugly head again when he's seeing ghosts in the pocket he has a dig right over the middle he doesn't pull the trigger third and nine on their final drive bails from a clean pocket it's just is smith a significant enough upgrade over kirk cousins i don't think so especially when you factor in the fact that cousins was younger and i think is a better fit for what gruda wants to do on offense so i don't understand this move but washington has just screwed this up royally for the past couple of years and i'm not just saying that because i'm down here like anybody can see this they just

like you said michael kick this can down the road they were gonna have to pay a ton of money at the friends franchise tag them again or transition tag them so at least they technically got something and it just they just totally mishandled it i think yeah it's it's a weird situation i i mean alex smith is a good good quarterback uh yeah bringing him in for for that kind of capital and then losing a guy like kendall fuller who I think is criminally underrated outside of regular football circles, like guys that pay attention to it like us. It's going to be very interesting. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with Kirk Cousins, where he may go. Ben has a big smile on his face. I'm wondering what he's snickering about over there. Was it because I called you smart? No, I do appreciate that. I'm just

wondering, where is Dan Snyder's head? If we have some major takeaways from the past, I don't know, 10 years of football, it's quarterbacks are increasingly valuable, and when you get a good one, it's very important. Also, the slot corner is now a starting

position. Those are two of our biggest biggest most like like like distinct precipitated takes over recent modern football and he just laughed at the face of both of them yeah how you don't just that lack of awareness is shocking now mike for you and i this is great oh yeah i love it oh fantastic let them mire and mediocrity along with the Cowboys and the Giants. You know, NFC East hasn't had a repeat winner since 2003, I believe it is. 2004 maybe was the year. Either way, looking good for 2018. Obviously, knock on wood. The fact is, it's just it's gross mismanagement from a franchise that doesn't even have a great standing in the league to begin with. Redskins are a joke, man. Yeah. And from my perspective now, I'm dealing with the possibility of facing Kirk Cousins

twice a season now. Because obviously you have to think that the Jets are now in the mix for the Cousins sweepstakes, and I can't believe I just used the phrase, the Cousins sweepstakes. But here we are. He's arguably the best sort of free agent quarterback in recent history, which again, crazy. But I know Denver is probably in the lead. They have to do a lot from

a cap space standpoint to free stuff up to lead probably be in the cap sort of casualty there but there's a chance that you know Cousins ends up with the AFC East and the Jets upgrade a quarterback all very interesting stuff and look we've given enough minutes to bad football teams we have two very good football teams to talk about here as we preview for the Super Bowl that we have all offseason to talk about Alex Smith and the terrible the Super Bowl that we have all offseason to talk about Alex Smith and the terrible Washington Redskins. So let's get into it. Last time, we did the Eagles defense against the Patriots offense. This time, we're going to flip it, Patriots defense against the Eagles offense. Man, that is a tongue twister.

You got it. You nailed it. I nailed it this time. First time, last time, it did not work out so well. Anyway, let's talk about, I want to talk about 11 personnel. I knew you were going there. Yeah, well, I'm not going there yet because. Oh, you're going to save that one in the holster? I'm going to save that one, yeah. Kind of like a trump card?

I'm going to rant on that one. What I do want to talk about is Eagles using 12 and 13 personnel. So two tight ends, three tight end sets. They use it 34% of the time. They have a 137 QB rating when passing out of it. The Panthers, the Chiefs, the Texans all use this grouping against the Patriots for at least 15 snaps. And all of them had a 99 quarterback rating or better against the Patriots. And only the Texans didn't average over five yards per carry against the Patriots and only the Texans didn't

average over five yards per carry against the Patriots from those groupings. So this is something that I could see the Eagles doing along with their 11 personnel, which is a very favorable matchup for them in the run game and we'll get into that. But this is something I could see the Eagles using effectively from the passing game. I think you might see a flip for them where 11 personnel is the way they attack via the run, at least more than most teams do because I think they're the third heaviest leaning run team at 11 personnel. And then when they go to 12 and 13 personnel, mostly 12 personnel, you're going to see them pass more than other teams would. Ben, do you think we'll see more 12 personnel from this game or do do you think we stick in 11 and spread and spread the box out, spread the safeties out and try to get those

favorable numbers in the box? To me, it's more 11. That's what I expect simply because that's where I think your offense is more comfortable. I think it's easy for us to forget that we are watching Nick Foles is what like sixth kind of start, you know, I think that's that's going to be the number that you choose if you count the Cowboys game as a start, obviously he finished up the Rams game as well. And so while this, they've really been able to open up the playbook. We've heard so much about Doug Peterson going back into the 2013 Chip Kelly

playbook and finding, you know, pieces of little nuggets there to deploy into his team. It's a slightly different look with foals under center, but still you're not at 100% strength of your offense. So while I think they, maybe they do come out with a 12 personnel, 13 personnel package, to me you're still running things out of 11. That's the basic way you like to do things.

And, yeah, I'd prefer to see all game intentional lighter boxes by formation and by personnel for Philadelphia than I'd like for them to see, you know, bringing in heavier guys with a Patriots defense and then spreading them out. I think that the motor for the offense is going to be the run game against the Patriots. And so I would expect them to try to keep the box a little bit lighter because Philadelphia's offensive line is a huge advantage over the Patriots front seven. There's no reason to muddy that by getting like Brad Selleck and Trey Burton involved. You know what I'm saying? Like, just keep your five excellent players out there.

You got a great offensive line. Let them do work. Right. And Mark, what do you think about the Patriots defense? Do you think it's beneficial to them if the Eagles use more 12 personnel rather than spreading them out? I mean, I kind of do think it would sort of help New England

if Philadelphia comes out, they go 12, they go 13. They allowed New England to get away from what they've been doing recently. A lot of what they've been doing recently, they've been going light boxes anyway. I mean, you look at that game against Pittsburgh, probably the most pivotal play of that game. It's a third and four in the fourth quarter.

They need to stop to get the ball back and have a chance to win that game. You think third and four, they're going to run it with Le'Veon Bell. New England goes four down linemen, seven defensive backs. I mean, that's the package that they looked at. And they basically said,

look, if you want to run it, fine. We're going to make sure we stop the pass. And that's kind of been New England's MO this year. You know, they give up yardage, but it's been sort of a bend, but don't break type philosophy. They'll go a lot of dime packages with six DBs. They'll go dollar with seven DBs. I mean, that's what they've been doing this year. And so, you know, I, again, we're getting deep into Superbowl week now where we've all been overthinking things too much. And so, you know, I, again, we're getting deep into Super Bowl week now where we've all been overthinking things too much. And I'm starting to wonder if they're really going to come out and play a lot of six, seven defensive backs and say, look, if you guys want to run the ball, fine, but we're going

to make you earn drives. We're not going to give you cheap stuff deep. We're not going to come out and sort of base personnel and sort of get beaten deep. We're going to make sure you have to quote unquote matriculate the ball down the field. And let's not forget for all the stuff that people have said this year about this Patriots defense how they've given up so many yards here they've been getting torched left and right you know by Carolina early by Houston early obviously by Kansas City open at night when it comes down to it the job of a defense is to keep points off the board and this is the fifth best scoring defense

giving up 18.5 points per game Eagles are the fourth best scoring defense at 18.4. I mean, when it comes down to the main job of a defense, these are basically the two evenly matched scoring defenses in the league, 18.4 and 18.5 points per game. So they'll get yardage. The Eagles will get yardage. They'll run the ball. But can they finish drives?

That's the big question, I think. Yeah, and a big key for them in running the ball is going to be using that 11 personnel which we'll we'll get into real quick here so jay jai who i think is going to be a key to this game takes around 70 of his runs from 11 personnel that's one running back one tight end and then around 70 of them in shotgun he's been extremely effective from that setup he's averaging it's a small sample size for him but i've seen as high as 12 yards per game just because he's busted off some big ones in his limited sample size so i want to see 20 runs from a jai or you know split it with blunt or whatever the case may be but 15 or 18 of those 20 whatever that percentage is you know 66 or 75 of those runs coming from the shotgun with one tight end

don't allow the patriots to get their 4-3 even front base and drop Chung into the box. Spread them out. Run your offense. This is simple stuff for the Eagles, in my opinion. They just have to run the offense. They've ran all year, and I think the results will come. So expect to see a jive from the shotgun, blunt from under center, and then overall expect the Eagles to be in shotguns 70% of the time.

And from there, they are the third heaviest run leading team in the nfl like i mentioned so i know i'm beating that point to death today but i really think this sets the eagles up to have success on first down which we've talked about this on this show at length set foals up in plus in plus situations so that they can convert on second down before you have to get to that third down and like mark you alluded to, maybe the Patriots are fine with bringing out five to six men as defensive backs. And in the beginning of this show, the little promo that we had there, we talked about how Belichick did that

as a defensive coordinator for the New York Giants against the Buffalo Bills because they didn't get the chunk plays. They didn't get the big timetime plays from the passing game. I don't know if they're that fearful of foals in that regard as they were as Jim Kelly and all the weapons there with Lofton and whatnot and Reed. But I do think that they might try a little bit, and they might try to force them to run and then dare them to pass.

And then when they do pass, really take at, you know, take advantage of it. Ben, as far as the run game, what do you expect? Do you expect to see anything different from what I just detailed as far as Ajay from 11 and then Blunt from under center? Yeah, it's really like, I agree with you very much in the sense that it feels like Philadelphia should continue to do that, which they've been good at all year. And they'll find success, which like,

usually if you're a regular Locked On Eagles listener, you know that every week Mike and I are coming in with, oh, do this specific and change that, do another thing. It feels very weird to be coming into the Super Bowl against the Patriots and be saying, do the offense. Don't really change very much. You know what I mean? When we talk about Philadelphia running the football very effectively, one of the reasons you see them do so is because so often their runs are tagged at the pass option and that does help remove one defender from the equation that is

how you lighten the box we talk about lightening the box you take one defender out of the box one less defender for your offensive lineman to block so that's why you see a lot of success there it should be noted i think that i'm most interested in how the russian game gets translated into the red zone for philadelphia that's where i'm most curious to see how things happen. Well, as Mark's been saying, Philadelphia is going to be able to pick up yardage on New England, period. I'd love to see them do it heavily through the rushing attack because number one, that takes up time. And number two, I think your running game is far less likely to turn the ball over than Nick Foles, right? So those are, I think, two very compelling reasons to run the football down the field however once you get into the red zone philadelphia tends to be a very pass heavy team in the red zone

you know doug peterson loves to use his spacing concepts he does an excellent job cutting the field in half and figuring out how to open up a throwing window for his quarterback in the red zone that's been a strength of peterson's all year when they get into the red zone will they choose to then throw the football put it in nick foale's hand windows are tighter in the red zone you need to have anticipation which is something with which foals struggles you know you have to be a little bit more aggressive of a passer and that's definitely not foals's game so that's where i'm most curious to see how things go because for all the wonderful things about it philadelphia's offensive line doesn't necessarily have the mass

to just pile drive people for four yards and then do it again for three yards and do it again for two yards and score that's not really the game it's a lot of motion-based sort of stuff you could see Doug get super creative in the red zone they've had two weeks to prepare so you can see a lot of different crazy stuff thrown out there as well I think that Philadelphia runs the ball successfully I envision you know Jay Ajayi we're still kind of waiting I don't know does he have one 100 yard game this year I'm not positive he's broken it. I think Ajayi hits 100 in this game. That's my anticipation. To me, it's very interesting to see.

Are they going to bring out Blunt as your red zone goal line back? That's what I'm most curious to watch in this game. Yeah, and we're going to talk about the passing game too because I say Ajayi 20 carries is what I want. But if he gets that look pre-snap and they dare him to pass and the box numbers indicate that he should pass, then we have to pass. We have to take advantage of that.

And we'll get into that in a second. And we want to talk real quick about our friends over at mybookie.ag. The big game is here. It's time to cash in big and bet the game at the world's best betting site. Ben, can you rank the top three betting sites in the universe? All right. So number one overall is my bookie.ag uh number two is my bookie.ag right and number three is my bookie.ag those are the top three memory serves

all spelled the same incidentally very interesting it's the pronunciations that differ mark who's number four number five well i think i think my bookie.ug is next and then i i think that's the the french pronunciation of that because it's huge my bookie is huge in france by the way because mccrone you know the the new sort of leadership in france they've sort of turned the economy around so the french they have a little bit more capital to spend in their spare time and so they've been betting heavy on the nfl this year and they've been using the fourth biggest betting website in the world, which is mybookie.org. I like that.

Look, if you've got a hunch on who's going to win the coin toss or what color Gatorade the winning coach is going to be wearing, by the way, yesterday we covered prop bets here on LockdownEagles.com. My lock of the week was pink is going to be airborne at some point. Go bet on that prop bet. Log on now. You don't spend the Star spangled banner a revered and sacred song in the air michael bad bet you don't know pink like i know that's her thing that's

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$150 to bet on pink being airborne. I'm telling you, it's my MyBookie Lock of the Week. Play, win, get paid. Let's get to this passing game. Mark, so with Nick Foles, duplicatable in any way. You're the QB guru here. Yeah, I mean, I think he can have a duplicate performance like that, but it's going to depend on how quickly he sort of gets into the flow of this game.

Because, you know, I mentioned, you know, my nightmare scenario in the last show, you know, when the Patriots have the ball. My nightmare scenario for this game from a Patriots perspective is you get confident Nick Foles early in the game who starts getting into rhythm, starts sort of feeling things. That deep throw to Alshon Jeffrey on the scramble drill situation really sort of has me worried from a standpoint of historically speaking patriots have failed at sometimes to close out superbowls because they failed to get the quarterback to the ground and they had their hands on him and they're going to need to do that with falls because a momentum type

swing play where he gets you know evades a sack in the backfield makes a scramble drill situation play happen like they did against the vikings in the nfc championship game you know, evades a sack in the backfield, makes a scramble draw situation play happen like they did against the Vikings in the NFC Championship game. You know, those are the kinds of plays that the Patriots can't give up. They have to take away those chunk plays. They have to take away those big type plays,

the flea flickers, the scramble draw ones. And that's why I think, you know, we might see a lot of light boxes, a lot of six, seven DB sets. So they're going to give you stuff underneath. They don't want Philadelphiailadelphia to get it all in bunches they want nick foals to go out there and earn it and you know we talked about this a little bit when we talked about the patriots offense schwartz's sort of mentality is

i want you to make 10 throws eight throws a drive to sort of earn your touchdown and that's one thing when you're talking about tom brady doing it i think it's another thing entirely when you're talking about nick foals doing it in his first Super Bowl. Right, right. Trust in Nick Foles, Ben. What do you got? I've been framing it this way all week. If you haven't heard me say it yet, here it comes again.

Foles can give you at least, at least what Jacksonville got out of Blake Bortles, in my opinion. And Jacksonville, out of Blake Bortles, had a two-possession lead on the Patriots in the third quarter. Jacksonville, with Blake Bortles, was in a position to win that game. Play calling got a little bit ugly. So I think that I'll put it to you this way. Brady's not going to submarine this game, right? Brady's not going to blow it. The Patriots are not going to whiff.

They're always like that sliver of a chance that the Eagles just whiff. Nick Foles is a very high-variance player. Things get wonky. Things get crazy. A couple of bad interceptions early just whiff. Nick Foles is a very high variance player. Things get wonky. Things get crazy. A couple of bad interceptions early just falls down. Think about that Seattle Broncos Super Bowl. We saw Peyton Manning crumble on live television.

There is that chance that, yeah, there's a big self-destruct for Nick Foles. But I have faith in him with the two-week prep as a veteran, familiar with the soft fence, being able to do enough to facilitate the game plan. I don't think it's a bad thing i first see philadelphia really relying heavily on the run game that's what i would love for them to see and i know we're talking about the passing game now i'd love to see philadelphia get the backs involved more in the passing game

in my opinion i think that the most i think that as far as the most motivated players you're going to find on the field on sunday night going to be Jay Ajayi, right? I've been thinking about it all week in the sense that, you know, when Ajayi won that NFC Championship and he was just on the ground there, you know, crying, you know, this means so much to him because of the struggles that he had in Miami. And he, you know, he hears the nonsense about, you know, he's got a short career ahead of him because of the structural, you know,

failures within his knee and so on and so forth. So I really think that Ajayi finds this moment to be precious. I'd love to see them get Ajayi involved early in the passing game as well. I'd love to see quick little stuff to Aguilar, stuff behind the line of scrimmage, anything to keep Foles moving and get him into a gentle rhythm, these low-risk throws. That's where I'd like to see the Philadelphia offense work. If that's the offensive game plan, Foles can execute that to a tee no problem.

If we're talking more of the downfield shots, which I don't anticipate, but if we're talking more of the downfield shots, then, yeah, Foles used a lot of his good quota against the Vikings. I don't know how much room he's got left here for the last game of the season. I'd like to see them come out more conservatively with Foles. Hey, if he's feeling it, unleash him. Right? But let's ease him into it. The interesting thing about that Foles

throw to Alshon, when you replay it, you can actually see him look up straight to the sky before the ball even leaves his hand. He was chucking that. He was putting everything into that thing, man. And if you watch that, you see the defensive back over Jeffrey peek his eyes into the backfield

because he thinks, you know, Foles is going to get sacked. Right. And that's instantly when Jeffrey takes off. I mean, it's, you know, it's a great play by Jeffrey. It's a great sort of feel for that situation. But that's what I'm talking about.

Like, A, if you're a Patriots defensive back, like you have to cover to the whistle, period, full stop. You should be doing that anyway. But Patriots defenders, if you've a Patriots defensive back, like you have to cover until the whistle period, full stop, you should be doing that anyway. But Patriots defenders, if you've got a shot at falls, not let the Patriots pass rush to something fierce, but they've been able to do some stuff sort of in the last, you know, quarter, third of the season. They've been more aggressive. Yeah.

Trey Flowers, Dietrich Wise. They've been doing some stunts with Butler inside Malcolm Brown at times. They'll get a couple of shots at falls. They have to take advantage of that. Get Philadelphia into second and long into third and long where a lot of the playbook gets cut by half. And there's only so many things you can do to pick up the yardage you need for a first down. Yeah.

And that's interesting, too, because the Patriots do stunt at a very high rate. They have been blitzing at a very high rate as well to try to manufacture some of that pass rush. I like Ben's point about passing the running backs more often. I think you could also see that from the Patriots. James White had 16 targets and 14 receptions for the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year. That'll mitigate a pass rush for sure, make things easier on the quarterback. I could see the Eagles doing the same thing. Matchups. We have any matchups that we like, Mark, that we want to talk about? Or you just kind of want to go through maybe one of your favorite ones?

I mean, I think from a New England perspective, I think you kind of like the matchups on the outside. I mean, obviously, I think we're all sort of anticipating Gilmore on Alshon Jeffrey. Gilmore's had a really good sort of last half of the season. I think the matchup between Malcolm Butler and whether it's Hollins out there, whether it's Torrey Smith out there, I think that's a semi-favorable matchup for New England. Probably maybe more evenly matched, I'd say. But still, you know, that might tilt in New England's favor.

I think the one that everybody's pointing to is in the slot between Aguilar and Rowe. And, you know, I think Aguilar has really sort of had a nice little turnaround season for him. He's kind of been a big player for Philadelphia. I can see him getting some open looks out of the slot against Eric Rowe and I'm sure Doug Peterson is going to try to design some stuff you know whether it's quick game whether it's even some deeper stuff with its mills or something to try to get him looks underneath against Rowe and that's the one that probably concerns me the most I know you guys might go you know Zach Ertz versus Patrick Chun but for me you know it's Ro Aguilar. Yeah, I agree with Ro Aguilar, and you remind me of a very good point, Mark.

When we talk about the deep shots that could potentially be taken, in my opinion, Aguilar on Ro is the one, because if I remember anything about Eric Ro, it's that when his back is to the football, he's got no idea what's going on whatsoever. So that very much interests me as far as the deep shots. I'm not into 50-50 balls to Jeffrey on the sideline. I'm not very into let's burn Stephon Gilmore with Torrey Smith.

That doesn't really ring with me. I go out of the slot and that little slot fade, however, that little stab concept they like, I'm down with that. To me, the biggest matchup Philadelphia offense-wise is going to be Big V versus X, right? And whether that's Dietrich Wise, you know, Trey Flowers, whoever it is that gets there. Because I'll tell you this, one thing that I expected better from Minnesota and from Atlanta that we didn't see was attacking Big V. And forcing Philadelphia, you know, to scheme him more help than they have been doing.

Because Philadelphia's been scheming him a decent amount of help, but it hasn't been world-ending, and both the Falcons and the Vikings were kind of content to take their admittedly very good edge rushers in Tack McKinley and Everson Griffin and say, beat him. Just beat Big V 101.

Big V's held his own pretty well. The help has been helpful. That's kind of the goal. I expect, after two weeks of prep, a guy like Matt Patricia to come out with a, especially when he doesn't have a premier edge, you know, obviously these, you know, Wise and Flowers, they're good. If he doesn't have that premier edge, you know, he should be able to beat Big V rep after

rep. I think he's more likely to have some scheme pressures attacking that left side. And so this is a big, big, big game for Halukulivatsi Baitai, especially because while I'm not still buying it, Mike, I don't think you are either. He's put in enough good performances

that this front office is going to spend some time thinking about him as the left tackle of the future. And so this could be a huge game for him. Yeah, I can see some stunts and blitzes coming his way. Okay, any other big topics that we want to talk about before we move on to predictions or how are you guys feeling about that? Well, Michael, what's the matchup you're looking at?

Oh, it's Aguilar. I mean, you guys covered it against Eric Rowe for sure. And you know, if we can get Ertz or Burton on someone that's not McCourty, then I like that too against the linebackers or against the safety, especially in the red zone. I think that's advantageous for the Eagles all day, every day. So yeah, that's really what I'm looking at, but you guys covered it pretty well.

We have to talk about special teams, Mike. Remember, we haven't done this all year. All right, here's your 30-second special teams analysis. Steven Gostkowski versus Jake Elliott. Jake Elliott advantage just on being young and picking it really far, even though Gostkowski's the man. Listen, Jake Elliott is the brand, okay? Advantage over anybody. Punters, Ryan Allen vs. Donnie Jones, no context. Holder, Ryan Allen vs. Donnie Jones, no context. Pond returner vs. Danny Amendola.

And who returns punts for the Eagles now? Kenyon Barter, Amendola. Kick returner, Dion Lewis against, probably still Kenyon Barter, still Dion Lewis. Okay, Jake Elliott is the saving grace of the Eagles special team. To everybody else, either a push or it's New England. Boom. Okay. Jake Elliott is the saving grace of Eagle Special Teams. Five seconds. Everybody else either a push or is New England. Boom.

Done. Very nice, Ben. This has been Special Teams Analysis with Ben Solai. 30 seconds of Special Teams. Beautiful. Okay, guys, predictions. Mark, I'm going to start with you.

And you can use the line. You can say that the Eagles will cover and you can leave it at that if you want. If you want to be a coward about it. No, I mean, I've said this everywhere this week. I'll say it here again. and you can leave it at that if you want if you want to be a coward about it but no i mean i've said this everywhere this week i'll say it here again i think is it still four and a half yeah i saw five recently but you saw five yeah we'll go with four and a half i think the eagles do

cover that i would take the points but i think this game is a 28 24 new england win i i still think it's one of those one score games that the Patriots have played in so many Super Bowls, but I think that they have just enough. Philadelphia ties. Tax went on late. Doesn't recover the onside kick. New England wins. And you can at him at Mark Schofield. Please do. And Ben.

I actually dropped this on my show. I'll drop it here again. 240-670-6016. Oh my god, what are you doing? You can leave numbers. I'm doing a Super Bowl Saturday edition show. I'll drop it here again. 240-670-6016. Oh my God, what are you doing, you bad man? You can leave numbers. I'm doing a Super Bowl Saturday edition show. Call that number. Leave a message. Text that number. Drop some takes. I'll work them into the show.

Do it up, people. Oh, so it's just a voicemail. I was going to say, that would be insanity that you would do that on this show. You think I'm dropping my cell? I don't even give you my cell. I don't know what you're doing. You're a crazy person. I am a crazy man. How do you have it?

So I've got 31-26 for Philadelphia. A lot of analytics go into this one. That's a missed two-point conversion is the analytic right there. I like Philadelphia, and it's going to feel weird. It's going to feel gross. I like Philadelphia to take a lead and then maintain a lead. I mean, maybe it'll go back and forth a little bit, but I think that you've got one of the best scripters in the game,

if not the best scripter in the game, in Doug Peterson. So I think Philadelphia will be able to come out and score early. I think that you're going to – this has been a team of emotion since Carson Wentz went down, and we saw what happened when you had a type of emotion like Seattle in that Super Bowl. I know it's the second time I've brought it up, but you get them going early with a couple of good plays to start, a couple of good breaks, then they go their way early. Patrick Robinson picks six, and this team will just snowball down the mountain.

And I think that Doug Peterson is incredibly good at getting them into situations to start strong early. This is the best first quarter offense in the league, bar none. And so I think that Philadelphia is able to jump out to a lead. I like them to have 31-20 coming there into the fourth. You know, you're going to get Brady with the ball about six minutes left in the fourth quarter, probably. I think he goes down the field and scores. Eagles are able to hold the two-point conversion, recover the onside kick, and then leak things down long enough

that Brady can't bring it all the way back. I know this. If the Eagles do have the lead at the end of the fourth, while obviously my mind wants them to have the ball, I'd love to see this defense up against Brady. Fourth quarter drive. I just think that'd be so much fun. Like, what a storyline.

That's what watching football is all about, win or lose. You know what I mean? But I like the Eagles, 31-26. I didn't detail my prediction as much as you, Ben, but I'm going 28-24 Eagles. I think they jump out quick, like you said, best first quarter team in the NFL. They are going to keep their foot on the pedal

for just long enough to stave off Brady. Dude, if they get a play like Patrick Robinson had on that pick six to tie it up with the Vikings, as soon as that play happens, to me, that's exactly what that team needs. They will roll for a good while on that momentum. And also, Tecmo Bowl news. Tecmo Bowl had a simulation of the game.

It was 16-10, 118 left. Patriots down, Brady with the ball. They drive to the 33-yard line. You've seen this movie before, right? Drive to the 33-yard line. There's a wide movie before, right? Drive to the 33-yard line. There's a wide-open receiver on the right-side line with eight seconds left, and the safety comes over and bats it away

just in time. I'm going with Tecmo ball. Eagles win. Guys, got anything else for the gentle listeners? I'm just scrolling through this Madden scenario here where there's just chaos in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to figure it out yeah another overtime game 30 30 into overtime elliot misses a field goal oh danny amidola

for a 52 yard touchdown you're drunk if you think jay galli can hit the field goal backwards with his heel all right mark i'm just i'm just don't shoot the messenger my friend i am just relaying this madden sim that was over at CBS. So I'm just saying. Look, Mutt is a cash cow for Madden. They haven't been the same since they brought that in. That game hasn't been the same since they got the vision cone out. Tecmo Bowl is the true king of simulation football.

Can we just pause for a few minutes here and opine about the vision cone? Yeah, absolutely. Because I'm right there with you, man. Like, why'd they ever get rid of that? It was the dumbest decision ea sports ever made because it wasn't widely accessible yeah yeah well that's true yeah what is this the vision the vision cone madden 06 so basically in madden 06 they had this they had this cone right awareness for quarterbacks doesn't matter when you're a user in madden because you're controlling them. The awareness is your awareness. So what they did was they created this cone,

and you could move it with the right analog stick back and forth between your receivers, or you could hold down L2 and you could click their buttons and you could snap to them. But if you threw to where you were looking outside of this cone, it would be wildly inaccurate. You were more accurate in the cone. So you could look off safeties, and it would decrease awareness of the defensive players accurate in the cone. So you could look off safeties and it would decrease awareness of the players, of the defensive players, not in that cone. I balled out on that game, man. I made so much money that year with Madden. Yeah, they need to bring back

the vision cone. And if they brought back the vision cone inside a new NCAA, I would quit my job and I would become a professional NCAA player for sure. No doubt. Aren't you going to do that anyway? I mean, I already put my two weeks in because I figure I can make all my money writing about football, right? Well, that's better than pink going airborne. You play, you win. You get paid. Look, pink going airborne and Justin Timberlake wearing red shoes and also wearing a hat while he covers Prince is my bookie locks of the week.

So what song is he going to cover? Purple Rain. Purple Rain? Yeah, Purple Rain. That's probably the easy bet, right? Yeah, exactly. I'm not currently asking the producers to Google famous Prince songs, because I definitely know some Prince songs.

We'll run some tape here. We'll give you some time here. When Doves Cry is my guess. Oh, with actual doves flying is my guess. Oh, that's good. With actual doves flying out? That's, ooh. That would be a nice moment. Doves wearing hats.

What's the prop bet on doves wearing hats? Mike, can't put doves in hats, man. Don't tell me that because I will prove you wrong. All right, guys. It has been a blast. You got to keep it locked on here on Locked On Eagles and Patriots. I've been at MichaelKissedNFL. That's Mark Schofield at MarkSchofield.

Check him out at InsideThePylon.com, LockedOnPatriots.com. That's been Benjamin Solak at BenjaminSolak. S-O-L-A-K. Fly, Eagles, fly. Hit them with a caw, Ben. Always like, Mark, I feel so bad for you. Patriots don't make sounds, so you got nothing. I'll leave you guys with this. You guys

need to Google something. New England, the Patriots, and we. I'm just going to say, go Google it. Laugh all you want when you watch it. I'll just leave it there. The Patriots and we? That is incorrect. New England, the Patriots, and we. It's from the year they got steamrolled by the Bears

in the Super Bowl. That was their like retort to the Super Bowl shuffle. It's like given the response to the Bears in the Super Bowl. That was their retort to the Super Bowl shuffle. It's like giving the response to the State of the Union speech. This was a piece of art. Why even respond? You're just going to make it worse. Anyway, that's my rant. I'm done.

Cut him! Hit him again. I'm not hitting him again. Save that for Friday. All right. Fair enough. Fair enough. So there you go, everybody.

That locks it down for the week with crossover events. I will be back tomorrow with your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. I'm just going to do my expectations more on what I expect to see when the Patriots defense is on the field. I'm also going to talk some prop bets. And you've heard it, but I will reiterate my prediction for Super Bowl 52. And then Saturday,

we'll do this Super Bowl Saturday special edition with takes from all of you. And then I will be back late Sunday night, hopefully for the final glorious victory edition of Locked on Patriots

for this season. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots for this season. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.