Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots February 14, 2018 - Offseason Positional Reviews: Running Back

Episode Date: February 14, 2018

Mark Schofield dives into the Patriots' options at the running back spot, along with identifying perhaps his first draft crush (non-QB category) of the 2018 draft season... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Good morning, welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Wednesday, February 14th, 2018. Happy Valentine's Day to all of you lovely and loyal listeners to the Lockdown Patriots podcast. Reminder, you can follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Follow the work over at InsideThePylon.com. Got a piece up over there right now. My first quarterback-only mock of the 2018 draft season. And staying relatively on brand, I did it with the help of some lyrics from Toto.

I'm just going all in on the Toto brand. What can I say? I'm going to ride this out until we're all sick of it, and that day might be fast approaching. What we're going to do today is Valentine's Day. We're going to do a little love it or leave it. With respect to the running back position, we're going to dive back in to the off-season previews for the New England Patriots, starting with the running back group. And, you know, sort of the reason for that is the fact that New England Patriots have some decisions to make at the running back spot. Let's sort of start with the good news. Patriots have two running backs under contract for the 2018 season, James White under contract, as well as Mike Gillisley.

Between those two players, the cap hit combined is about $4.6 million. James White's cap number about $2.4 million. Mike Gillisley is a hair under 2.2 Now I do have some decisions to make with some of the other guys They've got three running backs that are currently unrestricted free agents Rex Burkhead, whose 2017 AAV was in the neighborhood of $3.15 million. Deion Lewis, $1.3 million. And Brandon Boland, $775,000. So let's focus at the outset there. I believe Brandon Boland comes back. I believe they get him back into the fold because

of what he can do on special teams as well as they like to use Bolden in spots. They trust him as a blocker in pass protection, which is critical for what New England does on offense. So I think we can safely assume that they're going to find a way to get Bolden back. Then you've got to look at Burkett and Lewis. And I believe between the two, if it were me, I think you'd focus your attention on Deion Lewis, given what he displayed this past season, what he meant to this offense, the ability he showed to run the football all over, not just to the edges as sort of a scat-back type, but inside, gap in power schemes.

Now, the issue there is his market value. Looking at sporttrack.com right now, and it's similar to what other sites such as Over the Cap sort of calculated at, you're looking at a market value of a three-year deal, $15 million. Looking at $5 million a year. Obviously, that's a big bump from Lewis's current number of 1.3. So I think plan A, if I'm Bill Belichick, is you let Burkhead go. His cap number last year, $3.1 million.

You can use some of that to get Lewis bumped up to a place close to that three-year $15 million deal. Obviously, Burkhead's money won't bridge that entire gap, but if you can get into the mid-fours in terms of an annual average value, I think that makes sense for New England, and I think in a certain sense it makes sense for Deion Lewis. You know, because you get a chance to compete for another Super Bowl here. But Lewis is going to command some serious interest on the free agent market.

You know, almost ran for 1,000 yards, which, you know, given how much New England throws the football and given how much they spread it around amongst the running backs, that was a pretty impressive feat. Still chipped in over 200 yards receiving. Six rushing touchdowns, three receiving touchdowns. His rushing yards were over 600 more than Burkhead. He had one more rushing touchdown. Receiving yards were about the same.

Burkhead had 40 more. And each had three receiving touchdowns. Burkhead did have one lost fumble. I think if it comes down to a choice between the two, plan A is you try to get Lewis back into the fold. Plan B, if Lewis walks, if you can't get a deal done, maybe you bring Burkhead back, but I think you would still look for help there. I think they could roll with a mixture of Lewis, White, Gilleslie, and Bolden.

I think if Lewis walks, you're going to need somebody to sort of replace what he does. I'm not sure if Burkett could do that alone. I'm not sure if the guys that they would have in the stable can do that all on their own. But that's plan A. Get Dion Lewis back using some of that money from Rex Burkett. Not just me, though. Others may certainly disagree. And that's on their own. But that's plan A. Get Deion Lewis back using some of that money from Rex Burkhead. Not just me, though. Others may certainly disagree, and that's cool, too. Up next, we're going to look at some free agent options that the Patriots might look at as sort of plan C

if they can't get either of these guys back or if they go with the Burkhead route and maybe they still want to add some talent to the running back spot. And then later in the show, I'm going to throw out three names that the Patriots might have an eye on in this upcoming draft, and therefore you should start doing some work on yourselves. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now talking about the running back groups

for the New England Patriots and what they might have to accomplish this offseason. We started the show talking about the guys that currently have under contract, the free agents. Now we're going to talk about some of the free agents out there that the Patriots might show some interest in. Obviously, the big-name running back free agent this year is Le'Veon Bell, and I think we can all safely assume that that's a non-starter. You know, Bell is going to command a massive deal.

Certainly, he's going to probably go back, get something done with the Steelers. Maybe they have to franchise tag him. But if you're a Patriots fan, I wouldn't start getting your hopes up anytime soon for Le'Veon Bell. Guys that could be in the mix. A name that I talked about already, Isaiah Crowell. 25 years old.

Ran for over 800 yards this year. 182 yards receiving. Sort of similar in some respects, at least statistically, to what Deion Lewis did this year. And, you know, as the Browns sort of look to rebuild their roster, as they look to add in some talent, a lot of expectations that the Browns are going to go running back in this draft. Maybe they go Saquon Barkley at four.

They like what they have in Duke Johnson. Crowell might be a guy that sort of is on the outside looking in, and they might let him walk, depending on how Cleveland looks to approach this upcoming draft. Where he's only 25 right now. You know, if you end up bringing Burkhead back, and you can't get a deal done with Lewis, or maybe if both Lewis and Burkhead walk, Crowell could be a guy that you could look at to sort of bring in and replace some of that.

Then obviously you still have White, you still have Gilleslie in the mix as well. But looking through the rest of this running black cast, I mean, there aren't a ton of names out there. Jarek McKinnon. I know I talked about him before, not a big contract right now, but sport track over the cap, looking at sort of his comps out there, they're saying he's going to market value about four years, 16 million.

So you're looking at 4 million annually, you know, is $16 million. So you're looking at $4 million annually. For a running back that didn't again, is a guy that put up 570 yards rushing the football in 150 attempts, 3.8 yards per attempt, 421 receiving yards. So he will help you in the pass game.

I'm not sure how much he helps as a runner. But you're talking about Brandon Haman at about a $4 million AAV, which is in the neighborhood of what you'd want to play Dylan Lewis, who gives you more, I think, as a whole running back. So while McKinnon's interesting and can certainly serve a role in sort of a running back by committee group type presentation type

means of getting production, I'm not sure that he's worth that kind of money if he's purely going to be a receiving back. Some other guys out there that could be interesting, could get into this mix as well. In addition to McKinnon, in addition to Crowell. You know, they could go back. You know, they've had Traveris Cadet in earlier.

He's 29. Maybe they kick the tires on that a little bit. Bishop Sankey. Somebody else to consider. Again, a younger guy at 25. Hasn't done anything the past two years, hasn't played since 2015, is probably not the most attractive option.

There's not a lot in this running back free agent class. You know, so I think that shows you that either the Patriots get those guys back

or they address it in the draft. Because there's not a lot out there. Looking back at Bishop Sankey, he's been with New England before, but he's been battling injuries. Tore his ACL, the first game of the 2017 preseason. You know, maybe.

Maybe he has a possibility to get into camp and see what he has. It wouldn't cost a lot, I don't think. But it's just not the strongest sort of running back group. Obviously, you have a huge name at the top, a lot of pieces. That's why I think plan A and A1 are getting the guys you have back under contract. But then we can talk about this upcoming draft class, and it's a very intriguing draft class, a very deep draft class. I mean, you've got a debate going on right now as to who the top guys are. I get a chance to see Saquon Barkley up close.

I'm a huge fan of what he does. I'm a huge fan of what he brings to the table. But it's a legitimate debate as to whether he's the best running back in this group because you've got Darius Geis, you've got Sonny McHale, Marlon Jones, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, and some other guys we'll talk about, Rashard Penny, Kalen Balazs. It's a deep running back group. And, of course, we could head down the debate over, do you take a running back early? Does it make sense to take a running back early,

given the wear and tear on these guys, given the contract that's going to have to be paid for them, given the fact that a lot of running backs, you start to get diminishing returns as they get later into that rookie deal. So I think if New England has to go the running back route, or even if they just bring Burkett back and go the running back route anyway, then I think it would be later in the draft, a day three situation, which is why now we're going to talk about three sort of day three running backs.

You know, let's start with Rashad Penny. San Diego State. Penny put up massive numbers this year at San Diego State. 289 rushing attempts, 2,248 rushing yards, averaging 7.8 yards per rushing attempt for 23 touchdowns. 19 receptions for 135 yards and two touchdowns as well. Also shifted in the kick return game, 17 kickoff returns for 521 yards, averaging 30.6 yards per return.

Two punt returns for 70 yards, averaging 35 yards per punt return. And I think what you get with Penny is you get sort of Dion Lewis-lite, in a sense. Even though he's a bit smaller, at least in height, 5'11", over 200 pounds, got a solid frame, runs physical for a guy of his size, finishes tackles. He can put up big play type stuff. If you look sort of through his stats, look at his game log,

you'll see that a lot of games where he's putting up, you know, 200 yards a game, which is pretty impressive, even at the collegiate level. You know, against Hawaii back in the end of October, 253 yards, 234 the next week against San Jose State, 222 against Nevada, 203 against New Mexico, then finishes it in the bowl game with 221 against Army. And that's five straight 200-plus yard rushing games.

Had at least two touchdowns in each of those games. Two against Hawaii, three against San Jose State, two against Nevada, two against New Mexico, and four in the bowl against Army. Now, what we have to talk about with New England running backs and evaluating them is pass protection. And that's sort of an area where Penny struggles a bit. Even for a guy of his, you know, relatively good size, struggles a little bit in pass protection. So that's a concern.

But I think he's a guy that, unless he sort of knocks it out throughout the rest of this draft process, might be there. Maybe early in day three, but should be there in day three. So he's a guy to keep in mind. Kalen Balazs, another interesting guy

from Arizona State. Bit bigger. 6'2", 227. He's somebody that, you know, similar to what we just talked about with Penny. Struggles a bit in pass protection. But he might sort of test incredibly well at the combine.

Didn't put up huge statistics. 157 in Russian attempts for 669 in 2017 with six touchdowns. Was used more as a receiver in 2016 when he had 44 receptions for 469 receiving yards, including a 71-yard reception. He had one touchdown as a receiver that year. So he might be a guy that, when you look at him, can do a lot sort of as a receiver. But like we talked about with Penny, struggled at times in pass protection,

wasn't great at it. As a running back, you know, it's a situation where he's got the size. But there were times when it felt like he was getting brought down by initial contact, doesn't sort of finish runs. And he runs, this is something I noticed watching him on film, you see it right away, very upright running style. And that combined with his size gives defenders a big strike zone, big strike area. So, I mean, that one combined with sort of his, you know, the way he doesn't really finish runs, you know,

that's sort of something to consider because, you know, the big strike zone coupled with his sort of inability at times to finish runs, that's going to lead to a lot of plays that get stopped before they get a real chance to get going. That could lead to some tackles behind the line of scrimmage where other guys might break those. But depending on how things shake out, Balazs might be a guy later on day three that if he's on the board,

given what he can do in the receiving game, given the way you can use him, that might be the guy. But the one I'm most intrigued by right now is Naeem Hines out of NC State. Hines at the outset, blazing speed, can do a ton in the kick return game. 25.4 yards that he's averaging on kickoff returns, that's the seventh best mark in NC State history, ranks fifth in school history with 1,702 kickoff return yards over his career, just 75 games into his career. And when you watch him, you know, you see the explosiveness. explosive. I said a 100-yard kippy turn as a freshman. I think, you know,

when you look at him from a size perspective, 5'8", 197, your initial thought is, oh, you know, he's a fast, quick, scat-back type guy, but he's not powerful. Well, Jimbo Fisher. Watched an interview, a press conference with Jimbo Fisher, former Florida State head coach. He's a shorter guy, but he plays very strong.

And does that remind you of anybody? It reminds me of Deion Lewis. And Hines is a very effective runner in sort of outside zone schemes, stuff that the Patriots have done a lot with. We talked about it this year. They did it with Burkhead. They did it at times with both White, with Deion Lewis. But he's strong enough.

And he's feisty enough where he can run that inside stuff, the gap, the power stuff that we saw with Deion Lewis, using him between the tackles. John Ledyard, co-host of Locked On NFL Draft as well as the host of Locked On Steelers, has a great piece out over at NDTScouting.com right now on Hines. And he describes him this way. Hines might be small, and I'm quoting here from John's piece, but he runs as well inside as he does on the perimeter. Maybe better, in fact. His stature is best served in an outside zone scheme that gets the defense flowing laterally to expose him to less direct hits, but Hines is no punching bag either. He's feisty with the ball in his hands and uses that free mitt to ward off tacklers all the

time. John continues, I thought the level of elusiveness in this play below was an aberration for Hines as a receiver, but it was a good indication of his fight and balance when defenders don't wrap up. He's not going down on weak effort, so you better bring your lunch pail, parentheses draft cliche, close parentheses, if you want to get Hines off of his feet. And finally from John, Hines often split out wide for NC State, was asked to run patterns from flare routes to slot fades.

He started six games at wide receiver for the Wolfpack in 2016, catching 43 balls for 525 yards on the year. Hines knows what he's doing, and it is obvious, as he does a great job on this play, varying his pace throughout his patterns and accelerating away from coverage

at the proper points. So if we're going to talk about a later round day three type draft crush for the Patriots at the running back spot, to me there's your guy, Naeem Hines. Versatility. Versatility both in the run game versus the pass game. Versatility in the run game, whether it's zone, whether it's gap power inside. And that Jimbo Fisher quote, he's small, but he plays very strong, reminds me so much of Deion Lewis.

And so on this Valentine's Day, I think it's appropriate to end on what might be my first sort of non-quarterback draft crush of the 2018 draft season, and that's Naeem Hines. I think he would be a great fit for what New England wants to do offensively. I think he would be a great fit if the Patriots cannot get Dillon Lewis back in the fold because you're getting somebody with a similar play style, with a similar skill set, the ability and the versatility to contribute to what New England does on offense. He could contribute immediately in the kick return game. So there you go, friends. Hope you enjoyed this episode. I'll be back tomorrow.

We're going to talk a little deep dive on Danny Amendola. I'll have a guest to sort of walk us through a recent scouting report he did on the Patriots free agent to be wide receiver. Talk about whether the Patriots should bring him back into the mix or decide that it's time to move on. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Scofield, and Locked on Patriots.