Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots February 2, 2018 - Super Bowl Gameday Edition

Episode Date: February 2, 2018

Mark Schofield has final thoughts on Sunday, prop bets, predictions and more.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's a Super Bowl game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you for Friday, February 2nd, 2018. Super Bowl 52 just days away. By the time you listen to this, it might even be just hours away. We are getting closer and closer to kickoff. And it's been a massive week here over at LockedOnPatriots, LockedOnPatriots.com. Got to give a massive shout out to all the listeners. You guys have crushed it this week.

Numbers have been incredible. I'm honored to be along for the ride here. As I've said all season long from the first day. I took over the show This is your show I'm just happy to be here with you reminder. This is your show and Saturday night show is your show Reminder give me a call two four zero six seven zero six zero one six again that number two four zero six seven zero six zero one six Leave me a message Again, that number, 240-670-6016. Leave me a message.

Let me know your thoughts on the game. I'm doing a special show for Saturday, dropping your takes, reacting to them. I've got to say, Patriots fans, I've got to call you out here on this one. My entire phone voicemail box right now is nothing but Fly Eagles Fly. That's it. That's it. that's the list fly eagles fly at some point i'm probably going to get a caca from benjamin solak over at locked on eagles also massive shout out to those guys michael kissed benjamin solak they've been doing great work this week as well we had the two crossover shows definitely check those out what we're going to do today our usual game game day fair, my final sort of expectations on

when both teams have the football. We'll cover some prop bets, I'll revisit the prediction, and then basically it's game day. Why don't we start with when the Patriots have the football. Again, go over to LockedOnPatriots.com, check out some of the work I put up this week. You know, sort of where I look at this game when the Patriots have the football is this it's going to be tough to run the football on this guys we know it

one of the best rushing defenses by any metric in the league this year in terms of just yardage allowed per game the best run defense in the league this year but there are ways that you can run the ball against these guys. I want to give a shout out to Adam Spinks who is at TheRBScout on Twitter. He's one of the best followers out there.

Especially if you like the run game. If you're interested in the run game. If you want to see how that can sometimes play out. I reached out to Adam because again, he does great work. And I asked him, you know, is there sort of a weak link? You know, is there a way you can run the football on these guys? You know, and what Adam does for a lot of his work is he breaks down by, you know, sort of by gap defensively where a defense surrenders rushing yards.

And what he showed me was this. Runs to the right edge of the offense. That's where Philadelphia is weakest. They've given up 4.8 yards per attempt on runs to the right edge. Other spots where you can go, center, inside, 4.2 yards per attempt, or left tackle, 4.3 yards per attempt. Or left tackle. 4.3 yards per attempt. Everything else is tough. You want to run at the

B-gap to the right. Right guard. Right tackle. 1.7 over right guard. 2.8 over right tackle. And if you go over to LockedOnPatriots.com, I've got a piece on plays that have worked against this Eagles run defense. Quick traps inside.

Inside zone. If you try to run to the edge, running backs have to be quick, decisive. Either make that ban ring and attack that hole. Or if you can find it and if you're quick about it, you can look for that cutback lane. But while I think that the Patriots will show run at times, they'll try to run the football at times, this is going to be a game where Brady is asked to win it. They're going to put it on his shoulders, and the reason being is this.

Jim Schwartz's defense, we've talked about it a lot this week. There are pieces on LockedOnPatriots.com that break it down. He likes to get pressure with four. He'll blitz and stunt on occasion, but not a ton, and they'll play off but not a ton. And they'll play off coverage in the secondary.

They will give receivers five, six yards of cushion pre-snap. Schwartz's philosophy is two-pronged on this. Well, maybe three-pronged if you want to look at this. By one, we're going to get pressure and force quick throws. Two, our guys will come up and make tackles. Three, we'll give you those throws because our expectation is we're going to make you execute a 10-play, 12-play type drive to work the ball down the field. And at some point, our defense is good enough to force your quarterback to make a mistake. So Schwartz is going in on the philosophy that at some point,

the opposing quarterback is going to make a mistake. That might work against some quarterbacks in the NFL. That might not work against Tom Brady. So I expect the Patriots to come out and say, Okay, fine. You want to give us those five, six-yard throws? We'll take those five, six-yard throws because we'll bet on two things. Or maybe three things.

That's the second time I've done this this show. One, we'll bet on our guys sort of winning after the catch. Whether it's Brandon Cooks, whether it's Chris Hogan, whether it's Danny Amendola, sort of making a move after the catch and picking up yardage after the catch and forcing some missed tackles. Talked about that with Noah Princiotti this week as well. Tackling going to be huge in this game. Two, we're going to bet on our guy, number 12, not making a mistake.

Maybe this works against the Mitch Trubisky's, the Carson Palmer's, the Dak Prescott's, the Kirk Cousins' some of the quarterbacks that the Eagles have played and had success against this year. That's not going to work against number 12 because he won't make those mistakes. He's willing to take those easy throws. He's willing to execute those 10, 12-yard drives. I mean 10, 12-play drives.

So I think that works in the Patriots' favor. And the final thing is this. It lets Brady get the ball out of his hands quickly. So many people this week talking about the Patriots facing that pass rush, the Eagles pass rush. They're going to get pressure on Brady. I love pro football focus. They put out that tweet the other day that says,

in the two Super Bowl losses, Brady was pressured over 40% of his times. And that's what happens. When you pressure Brady over 40% of the time in the Super Bowl, you lose. And the Eagles are pressured opposing quarterbacks 41% of the time. Well, the numbers are actually 43 in those two Super Bowl losses. So let's not get ahead of ourselves, PFF. But I digress. But I think that's where this game is won.

I think this game is won with those five, six, seven-yard throws. Patriots may be breaking a couple of those and look for a double move. I broke it down on a piece over there. Evan Lazar over at Pat's Pulpit also broke it down on a piece. The Eagles back in week 15 get victimized by a couple of double moves, slant and go, sluggles by the Giants. One from Roger Lewis, one from Tavares King. Not exactly world-beater type wide receivers. But when you're playing that off coverage, when you're given that cushion, and you're asked to make quick tackles after the catch,

sometimes you're going to bite. Sometimes you're going to be aggressive and break down on those moves when you see slant, when you see hitch, when you see curl, when you see out. So look for a couple of double moves in this game. Obviously, the Eagles cover one, cover three team. A lot of single high coverage. What does that mean?

Break out your cover three beaters again. Look for some of those high-low concepts. Look for Gronkowski up the seam. I think the offense is going to be fine. I think the offense is going to be fine. I think the offense is going to put up points in this game. The bigger question is, can the Patriots slow down the Eagles offense? Can they slow down Nick Foles? Imagine thinking you'd be saying that before the Super Bowl back in August.

But here we are. That's what I'll talk about next with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, let's get back to it now. And we're going to talk about my expectations, basically, when the Eagles have the football. I have a four-part preview up on that matchup. Patriots offense against the Eagles. Excuse me, Patriots defense against that Eagles offense. And I'll admit, when this week started, I sort of looked at it from a sort of macro level, you know, in the immediate aftermath of the AFC championship game.

You know, looking at how these teams might match up. And I thought that, look, you know, cover two man makes a lot of sense. And then I started doing some more work on it, read some other analysis. I linked to a piece that I read over on Medium from Nick Turchin. He is at Tmanic, M-A-N-I-C

21, at Tmanic21, where he did some analysis and he came to the conclusion that two man probably isn't the best way to attack this Eagles offense, particularly when you're talking about stopping the RPOs. And then I went back and re-watched the AFC Championship game. And if you remember that AFC Championship game, early in that game, RPOs from Jacksonville were just slicing New England.

Corey Grant had two big catches in the first half. One for like 22, the other for 15. And I wanted to see what it was the Patriots did in the second half. Because they slowed those down in the second half. They slowed down the RPO game in the second half. And what was interesting was,

and this was part one of the four-part preview, in the first half they were playing a lot of cover three. And what was interesting was, and this was part one of the four-part preview, in the first half they were playing a lot of cover three. Those two Grant plays, they were in cover three. And the issue there is, one, cornerbacks are dropping off the line. Two, even though you've got guys in the box, they had seven, eight guys in the box to stop those, guys don't have pass man responsibilities.

So nobody was really covering Corey Grant as he leaked to the flat. You're hoping that guys can come up and make tackles in those situations, guys read and react to them. But when they see run action, second-level players are working towards that. On both of those plays, there was an edge defender close to Grant, but he had to stay home in case Bortles kept the football and ran himself in the second half cover one man free however you want to call it basically get 10 guys down near the line of scrimmage everybody's in man except for the free safety

so everybody's got a pass responsibility everybody's got a man that they're covering and you take away a lot of those reads you take away a lot of those reads. You take away a lot of those throws and those decisions. You know, when you talk about stopping RPOs, one of the things you want to do is try to force the decision. Make the decision for the quarterback. And when the quarterback gets out there and he sees man coverage and he sees, you he sees each potential route,

each route in the passing component of the play will be covered up, he has to make the run decision. And so that's sort of my expectation now. I came into this week thinking cover two man would be the way to go. I think cover one man is the way to go now. And the other thing is this, cover one man, it allows you to sort of get that extra guy down into the box. I think that's going to help in this game.

There's a lot of talk about, oh, the Eagles run game. JGI hasn't been that great down the stretch. I think his DVOA number is not that great down the stretch. I'll have to double check that. I'm sure I can get called out on it if I screwed it up. But I think the Eagles, they'll run the ball. They'll get it going. But I think the Patriots will do a lot of cover one stuff.

The other thing I'm looking for is pressure in Nick Foles. A lot of discussion this week about pressure in Tom Brady. There hasn't been as much discussion this week about pressure in Nick Foles. But I think pressure in Foles and getting him to the ground is going to be big. I don't want to let him have time back there. I don't want to let him... I don't want to give him an opportunity to make those chunk plays like the 55-yard touchdown to

Alshon Jeffrey in the NFC Championship game. There are two things I'm looking at. One, tackle-end or end-tackle exchanges, depending on how they're drawn up eagles have been susceptible to that this year they've given up some sacks and some pressures with falls as their starting quarterback against those designs again tackle end exchange that's where the defensive tackle sort of attacks upfield, tries to occupy the guard in the tackle.

Then the defensive end loops behind, hopefully finds a Russian lane. You can have what's also called a strong end tackle, where the end actually comes down inside first, tries to occupy both those guys, and it's the defensive tackle who then comes second, loops around, and gets after the quarterback. There's a play against Oakland back in Week 16 that's part of the second part of the Patriots' defensive preview where Khalil Mack comes inside. He goes first. Then it's Jihadi Ward who loops around behind to the edge,

and he's the guy that gets falls. And the Patriots have done this. I broke down a play from the divisional round against the Titans where they used that tackle end exchange. Tackle goes first, Ricky Jean-Francois. He goes upfield. Trey Flowers, who's the defensive end, does a great job of sort of widening himself. He gets Taylor LeJuan, the left tackle, detached from Quentin Spain, the guard.

And that creates the gap that Ricky Jean-Francois exploits. Luan can't recover in time, and it's the defensive tackle who gets there for the sack. So look for that. The other thing to look for in terms of pressure and falls, the left tackle. And it's Jalapoli Obavodata Vaita. I can't pronounce it, okay? It's a long name. I've tried. Not going to get it done. I'll just take the L on that. I can't pronounce it, okay? It's a long name.

I've tried. Not going to get it done. I'll just take the L on that. Look for the Eagles. Actually, we look for the Patriots to try to get him up against James Harrison. Because if you watch him this year, the left tackle, he's given up a couple of sacks on dip and rip moves. Rip and dip moves, whatever sequence you want to use.

Gave up one to Olivier Vernon back in Week 15. James Harrison's known for that. That's his signature. And he's used it in the final closing stretch of the season. He used it on the play where he punched the ball out from Bortles. Watch for Harrison to get a couple of one-on-one matchups against the Eagles left tackle. And how apropos would it be if Harrison would be able to come up with one sort of big play, one big sack, one big forced fumble,

a strip sack type of thing? How emblematic would that be of the entire sort of Patriots philosophy that a guy gets sort of cast away by a team, the Patriots bring him in, and he comes in and makes one big play to help win a Super Bowl. Third part of the defensive preview, Nick Foles and his tells. All quarterbacks, most quarterbacks, have some sort of a tell. You know, something they might do pre-snap,

something they might do post-snap that a defense can read and key off of. Josh Allen, the Wyoming quarterback, who's going to get a lot of talk as we get into draft season. If you watch him, there are times on pass and plays when he will be standing in the shotgun and he'll kind of rub the backs of his legs

right before the snap. It doesn't happen always, but it happens enough that I noticed it. And if I noticed it, you can bet that his opposing defensive coordinators noticed it. Sometimes quarterbacks lick their fingers before a pass in play. Nick Foles has two tiny tells. They're small tells. But in a game where inches will matter, where every split second matters,

where every single play might matter, can the Patriots exploit those two tells? And here they are. One, he will lead you to the football with his eyes, particularly on third down situations when they need a big play, and he looks to his tight end, Zach Ertz. There's a piece on LockedOnPatriots.com right now. I highlight three plays where all he does is he takes the snap

and looks right at his tight end. Now, if the Patriots are playing a lot of cover one, a lot of man coverage, defensive players aren't going to be really reading the quarterback. They'll be watching the receiver, so they might not get a chance to exploit it. But if they do some zone stuff, there's a chance to read Ertz's eyes. He had a throw, excuse me, read Foles' eyes. Foles had a throw against Oakland in Week 16, where he was lucky he didn't throw a pick six. It was a third down throw to Zach Ertz, who was in a Y-ISO formation. Reggie Nelson was playing off coverage.

He had a chance to read Foles' eyes. It's a three-by-one Y-ISO. Foles takes a snap, looks left immediately. His eyes never move off that side of the field. Reggie Nelson reads it, breaks on it, just doesn't secure the pick. If he does, it's a pick six. Will Foles make a mistake like that? And if he does, can New England capitalize? That's one. The other, also very subtle. Foles will burp the baby. If you've ever listened to Mike Mayock, seen some of his coverage of the Senior Bowl or whatever,

when a quarterback just pats the football, sometimes right before pulling the trigger, that's called burping the baby. And Foles does it. And he has a quick release, and it's almost instant. But it's, again, that extra split second. If you're a defensive player, if you're playing zone, and you see that pat, you know the ball is coming out.

And it might give you a chance to break on the football. One last thing to watch for. Final part of the four-part defensive preview, slot fade or the stab concept. Something we talked about with the guys over at Locked On Eagles, Benjamin Solak, Michael Kist. Patriots need to be ready for it. It's one of Doug Peterson's favorite things to run this year. They were running it with Carson Wentz.

Now they've been running it with Foles. They'll run it to the tight ends. They'll run it to Nelson Aguilar. I believe their first game against Oakland back in weeks, their first play against Oakland back in week 16, first play of the game, slot fade to Nelson Aguilar. They didn't hit it, but they'll go to it early and often. They love it in the red zone, particularly to the tight ends.

Patriots need to be ready for that. And if they're going to meet a lot of man coverage, what they need to be ready for is whoever's in the slot. If it's Aguilar, we're talking about Eric Rowe. If it's 12 personnel, you might see a safety down there. Probably Devin McCourty or Patrick Chun, depending on whether it's Ertz or Burton. You need to have tight coverage in those situations. You need to play that route well, and you need to be ready for it

because it's sort of their go-to. Those are some of the expectations I have for when the Eagles have the football. I think, you know, similar to what Nora Princiotti said this week when she was kind enough to join us from Minneapolis, I find it hard to believe that the Patriots' defense won't be ready for this game. Given the fact that they've had two weeks, all this talk about RPOs, you know they're going to have an answer for it. That's why I think the adjustment that they made

at halftime of the AFC Championship game was huge. I think the Eagles will put up points, but I think the Patriots will make one or two sort of pivotal stops in this game that will help them carry the day. Ahead, some prop bets and my final prediction for the Super Bowl 52.

That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots. All right, everybody. Let's get into three prop bets. There are tons of prop bets. Super Bowl prop bets. They're crazy.

I just want to talk about three because they really stick out to me. Go over to mybookie.edu. Use that promo code LOCKEDON when you do. First, over or under on the national anthem from Pink. The over or under is two minutes. And the over is the overwhelming favorite here. But I think you can't overthink this one, okay? Basically, every anthem has sort of hit the over, you know, for like the last four, five, six years.

Don't overthink it. You know, even though the over is the overwhelming favorite, you want to get off to a good start with your Super Bowl breaths, right? You don't want to take an L early. And just think about it logically. You get a chance to sing the national anthem before the Super Bowl. You're not going to get in and out. You're going to milk that moment. It's not a grip it and rip it type situation.

You're going to slow walk that one. You're going to build up a little crescendo. Don't overthink this one. Take the over. Thank me later. Next, I want to talk about just two more prop bets, both in-game prop bets first. Over-under players to throw a pass, 2.5. All you're basically saying is this. Do you think one more player is going to throw a pass in this game? The overwhelming favorite there is the under.

Vegas is thinking, look, only Foles and Brady are throwing passes in this game. I'm taking the over. What did we see from both of these teams in the respective championship games? They were both using trick plays.

We saw some flea flickers. We saw some throwback stuff. Somebody else is throwing a pass in this game. I think Danny Amendola is sort of the easy sort of guy that might throw a pass. But something just tells me there's a third player throwing a pass in this game. So I'm taking the over there. Finally, in what I think is the easiest of these prop bets, Carson Wentz mentions over-under

3.5. Again, the over is the favorite here, but let's be honest. If the Eagles win, there's going to be a lot of discussion about Wentz and what he must be feeling and what it must be like for him. If they're losing, if they struggle, if Foles makes a mistake, there's going to be discussion about Wentz. You think he's going to get mentioned

less than three times? Come on. Take the over there. It's prediction time, friends. If you've heard me on shows this week, you've heard me on this show, other shows, I think the Patriots win this 28-24.

I think it's going to be a close game. I think it's going to come down to the fourth quarter. Look, and if you're listening into the show and you're a Patriots fan, I know what you want. I know you want a nice sort of relaxing, blowout win from New England. Something where, you know, I read a tweet, I forget who put it out, but somebody basically said, look,

I just want to be sitting in the fourth quarter and enjoying my beverages and my snacks and not pacing the house like a madman or a madwoman. But unfortunately, the way I see this game shaping up, I think, again, it's going to come down to the final minutes. Maybe even the final play or two.

But in the end, New England has enough. They'll put up enough points. They'll make one or two critical stops on defense. And they'll carry the day. New England 28. Philadelphia 24.

Again, before I go, reminder, give me a call. 240-670-6016. Leave me your takes for a special Super Bowl Saturday edition of Locked On Patriots. Then I will be back late, late, late Sunday night. Hopefully, for a glorious victory edition of Locked On Patriots. Maybe I'll even explain the glorious. I think I have. Maybe I haven't.

I don't even know. It's been a long season, guys. I've been doing what I can. But it's almost game time. It's time to find out what the Patriots have in store for the Philadelphia Eagles and we will find out Sunday night until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots