Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 19, 2018 - Gameday Edition with Mike Kaye

Episode Date: January 19, 2018

Mike Kaye, a Jaguars beat reporter from First Coast News, drops in for this Gameday Edition of Locked On Patriots.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If it's Friday, it's a game day edition, an AFC championship game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you in the big chair as I've been all week long, all season long, leading up to this, the AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars. That's set to kick off around 3 p.m. Eastern out of Foxborough. We've been getting you ready all week long for this game. Going to do some final thoughts here at the outset,

some final sort of predictions at the end, what I'm expecting to see when both teams have the football. And in between, a conversation with Mike K from First Coast News down in Jacksonville he's a Jaguars beat reporter get a chance to talk to him and get his thoughts on the upcoming AFC championship game now first reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield

check out the work over at insidethepylon.com over at lockedonpatriots.com as well some pieces went up over there this week that I'd highly recommend that you check out the work over at insidethepylon.com over at lockedonpatriots.com as well some pieces went up over there this week that I'd highly recommend that you check out quick news and notes and obviously the big story that sort of came out over the past 24 hours or so

was Tom Brady suffered an injury to his throwing hand in practice on Wednesday got it knocked when he was attempting a handoff during practice Injury to his throwing hand in practice on Wednesday. Got it knocked when he was attempting a handoff during practice. X-rays were negative. All reports that Brady will be fine for Sunday afternoon. And I know that that sort of gets met with perhaps some skepticism, perhaps some concern. But let's put it this way.

To quote from the great for love of the game, has Tom Brady ever not showed in his career for New England, has Tom Brady ever not showed and balled out in a football game, particularly in a playoff game? Don't get yourself worked up over this one. Don't worry about it. I'm sure everything is fine and yeah that's a hunch but listen brady has been there through these games before

he's gonna be fine the fact that x-rays were negative is a big one and the thing that means the most to me coming out of this, when the initial reports came out and the speculation was that Brady perhaps maybe hit his throwing hand on somebody's helmet while he was following through on a pass, that's cause for concern.

Because that one really can hurt you. Even if things are negative in terms of an x-ray, that one really can hurt you even if you know things are negative in terms of an x-ray that can really sort of impact your your grip there ted win who i work with over inside the pylon you should follow him on twitter he is at fb underscore film analysis it does some work for the athletic as well he's a former former quarterback, and he also said, look, you follow through and hit your hand on somebody's helmet. Even if x-rays are negative, that can impact your grip.

So the biggest part to me was the fact that that's not how this happened. He sort of got jammed during an attempted handoff, probably one of those situations where Brady and the running back were not on the same page, and they just kind of collide at the handoff point. That's a little bit different. That doesn't concern me as much. So that and the fact that, look, Tom Brady has been there before. He'll be there again.

I'm not too worried about this one. But that was the big story. Felt like we needed to address it at the outset. Up next, my conversation with Mike K. from First Coast News. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, as promised, everybody, I'm here with Mike K. He's a beat writer for First Coast News covering the Jacksonville Jaguars. You can and you must follow him on Twitter. He is on Twitter as

Mike, my friend, how are you doing, buddy? Other than having the most complicated Twitter handle to say out loud, I'm doing well. Well, it's not, believe me, out of all the Twitter handles out there, it's really not the most complicated, so I'll give you that. I mean, I kept it straight forward. I hate to cut you off, but it just sounds so difficult for everyone to say, and I feel awful.

We make fun of it on my own radio show, so thank you for willing your way through it. I do what I can here. And before we hop into the game, I've got to ask, what's the sort of general mood down in Jacksonville right now? This team has had just a sort of incredible rise to this point. I've got to guess that Duvall is just wild right now. They're embracing their role as the underdog franchise, the underdog fan base, the underdog roster. I mean, they really – but they're cocky.

This is a cocky group. They think that they have nothing to lose, and they are going to come at the Patriots as fast as they can. And obviously, given Tom Brady's quote-unquote hand injury, I mean, it just adds fuel to the fire. And I think his Jaguars team is really confident right now. Do you think that, you know that this talk about the Brady injury, and I've seen maybe in corners of Twitter and elsewhere

people wondering if Brady's really hurt. Do you think there's any sort of buy-in in the Jaguars locker room right now that there's something else going on here? Do you think there's any credence to that, or do you think people are just fired up for this game no matter what well i think they expect no matter what the tom brady is going to come out firing it's not like he's going to miss the game so they're preparing as if he was completely healthy which is what they should do and i think i think the plan is just to attack them as they normally would as they would have you know game planning

monday before this injury even happened you know mike we'll start sort of with on the field stuff when jacksonville has the football and the question always comes up it's usually the first one we talk about this jaguars offense what blake bortles shows up on Sunday? See, that's the $19 million question. Right, right. He's got a 50-option year that is only guaranteed for injury. I think it's going to be a mixture of both. I think he's a high-variance quarterback. You and I have talked about that a lot.

He's kind of similar to Nick Foles in that respect. But I think what Blake's going to need is the running game to determine how he's going to play. When the running game performs well in big games, he plays well. If he has to throw more than 25 passes, they are in trouble. But when he's been able to limit his passing and not turn the ball over, when he doesn't throw an interception, the Jaguars are 10-0. When his passer rating is over 90, they're 7-0. I mean, I think the plan is to manufacture yards out of the running game,

manufacture yards with his feet, and get the ball, take what the defense gives him. And I don't think the defense is going to give him a lot in this game. You know, one of the things, Mike, when I look at this game is, you know, obviously people are going to focus on can New England stop the run or can Jacksonville get the ground game going? I'm really curious, and you just touched on it a bit, how much they involve Bortles sort of as an active participant in the run game.

How many times do they dial up read option? How many times do they even run just QB power? Is that something you're expecting to see early to sort of get him into the flow of the run game? Well, I think they're going to start with some RPOs. I think they have to, right? Because one of the biggest ways that they can get Leonard Fournette going is if the Patriots have to worry about Blake Bortles either throwing on the run

or running. And I think for this Jaguars team and this Jaguars offense, they need that bit of extra help because they're not a big play offense. They're not a team that's going to run down the field 80-yard drives consistently. A lot of their scoring success has come on short fields because the defense is so good at forcing takeaways. So I think if they have to start off with the ball, they're going to want to make a statement kind of like what they did against the Steelers, where they ran down the

field, used the running game to pound down the field, hit a couple of quick throws, and then get in the end zone and start off with the momentum. Because this team is really built on the momentum of turnovers and the momentum of quick scores. And I think if the Jaguars can do that, they'll have a shot. Another thing I've been wondering about this week is, and we saw it against Pittsburgh, some sort of deep shots, some design deep shots off play action. They had the one to Cole, obviously the touchdown to Bohannon.

Do you anticipate more of that? You know, maybe Jacksonville? Because on that open and drive against Pittsburgh, you know, they had a run and then three-state play-action play. So I'm really curious to hear your thoughts on if they're going to scheme some play-action stuff for Bortles in this one. Well, Blake Bortles' biggest strength is play-action. I mean, it's play-action plays because he's able to sell the run. You don't know if he's

going to run and then he can hit you with a big pass of a guy can break down downfield. He's actually really impressed me since getting into the playoffs this last, you know, six or seven games. He's really been going through his progression. He's always been kind of a one or two progression guy. If you watched the game last week, he went to his fourth progression and went back to his third progression, back to his fourth progression again, and got the ball to TJ Yeldon for a 40-yard catch. So I think that's the maturity of his game so far this season. He's really been able to not just limit his passing options, but not force him to hold onto the ball even longer. And I think that that's benefited him as the games and weeks have gone along. And I think it also helps him with the play fakes.

I mean, if he can buy an extra second, he's got the option to go to a third or fourth read. Mike, one of the areas I was kind of looking at in terms of trying to find a weakness on this offense from Jacksonville was sort of the interior of the O-line. I look at right guard A.J. Kan, who I think is a solid player, but there are times that he can sort of lose one-on-one matchups. If there's a concern up front, is it that right guard spot?

I would say that A.J. is more of a finesse blocker. The right side of the line is not very good at opening up holes, which has caused a problem because, as you know, Leonard Frenette faces eight and nine-man boxes more than anybody else in the league, and so he's had to manufacture yards after contact consistently. I talked to Bill Belichick in a conference call the other day, and he said his body lean is impressive, and his ability to create yards after contact is impressive. That's true, but it's also limited.

I mean, when you're getting hit at the line of scrimmage and you're picking up two yards, that's just how it is. You know what I mean? So he's had to will his way through, and that right side of that line isn't the premier blocking group that it would be a most squad. Mike, let's sort of look at the other side of the ball now. And obviously, question mark, this talented, young but extremely talented, almost historic level pass defense from Jacksonville.

What's going to be their sort of game plan to go up against this New England offense? Well, they still have one of the best rotations in pro football because no one's gotten injured. And I think what they're going to plan on doing is consistently rotating guys. Calais Campbell can play all four spots. Malik Jackson can play three to four of those spots. Yannick Ngakwe can rush from the weak or strong side. Dante Fowler's the same way, and he can even rush inside. They go seven deep, and they play all seven guys, and all of them are very good

at rushing the passer. So I think what they're going to try to do is move guys around. They're going to do a lot of stunts. They're going to try to get up the middle with Calais Campbell, Marcel Darius, Malik Jackson, and even Yannick Ngakwe, and try to get it so that Tom Brady can't step up in the pot. If they can buy their DBs some time, or their DBs can buy them time, Tom Brady's going to get hit a lot, and we've all seen him get flustered

when he's been hit up the middle. So I think if the Jaguars can force regular pressure on Brady they've got a shot at creating turnovers they've got a shot of scoring defensive touchdowns it's really so dependent on takeaways and takeaway scores that they're going to need to get at least two to have a shot in this game. Mike you mentioned sort of the depth up front for Jacksonville. Because of that, do you think New England, Josh McDaniels, they try to neutralize that? They use tempo, they go no huddle, keep whatever guys start a drive on the field for the duration of the drive to try to neutralize that advantage? Absolutely. That's what I would

do. And I would make sure that I've got an outlet on every single play because the quicker you can get that ball out. We saw what happened with Jimmy Garoppolo against the Jaguars. We've seen what Marcus Mariota did to them twice. We saw what Josh McCown and Blaine Gabbert even did to them. If you can get the ball out quick and you can target the center of the field, the Jaguars are going to struggle because that's their weakness. Quick throws, slants, posts, that's what you've got to do against this Jaguars are going to struggle because that's their weakness. Quick throws, slants, posts, that's what you've got to do against this Jaguars

because interior-wise, when they play cover three, they have not been able to communicate consistently well enough. Barry Church gives up big plays in cover three. We've seen cornerbacks have miscommunications. If you can find pockets in that coverage, which you will, it's cover three, you can take advantage relatively easy. Mike, earlier this week, Doug Marone said there's sort of no secret formula. You mentioned that in your piece as well that you did this week,

one of your many pieces this week on covering Rob Gronkowski. There was some speculation maybe that we'd seeaylen ramsey on gronkowski i know todd wash today kind of put the kibosh on that said that they're going to run what they run do you believe wash or do you think there's still a chance we see jay jaylen ramsey on gronkowski how did how does jacksonville deal with 87 well i mean like like you said doug and todd Todd Washington both said there's no way to completely shut him down and he also made a comparison like if if Gronkowski and Jalen Ramsey were playing basketball it would work like covering him but they don't want to you know they don't want to stay away from what they do I would be absolutely shocked if Jalen Ramsey doesn't line up against him a couple of times in the red zone.

I mean, if it were me, I would have him cover Gronkowski and Mann in the red zone. That's the only way I would have them matched up because you don't want to take away your best boundary guy, your best press corner on the outside and have Brandon Cooks against some other guys. I mean, you've got Brandon Cooks, you've got Chris Hogan, you've got Danny Amendola, you've got just a wealth of guys, and I just don't understand how you're going to cover all of these weapons.

That's the problem. It's not just Tom Brady. It's not just Gronk. He has a lot of talented targets. James White and Deion Lewis are going to create a lot of problems as well. Yeah, and I kind of think that the game's going to be won or lost based on how Amendola, Deion Lewis, James White, how they do against, say, Barry Church, Talvin Smith, Colvin as well.

Do you think that basically we're going to see Hogan and Cooks kind of neutralized by those corners and it's the guys on the inside take away Gronkowski who determine this game? If I'm Bill Belichick and I see that, I've won the game. For real. I don't know how you cover the center of the field against Gronkowski

and Amendola. Aaron Colvin's a very good center. He allowed a catch rate of 72.6, but he only allowed seven yards per catch. And the passer rating was not very good for opposing quarterbacks. That said, none of those opposing quarterbacks were Tom Brady. They're going to target Aaron Colvin a lot. Bill Belichick said on the conference call that Colvin's – he went out of his way to compliment Colvin. I took that as, hey, they're going to target him a lot bill belichick said on the conference called it colvin's he went out of his way to compliment colvin i took that as hey they're going to target him a lot colvin's been really

good he got an intercept his first career interception against the bills but this is like a whole nother animal and i i don't know how you neutralize all these guys because maybe you put colvin on uh gronkowski and that's a massive size disadvantage. Or you put him on Amendola and then who are you going to have cover Gronk? Sean Gibson, who's got a foot injury? I just like, none of these matchups seem like they make a lot of sense. You know what I mean? Like there's always, there's a downfall in every matchup. And I don't know if the Jaguars pass rush can get to Tom Brady as quickly as they did to Roethlisberger, as they did to Tyrod Taylor.

There have been some games where this pass rush has been shut out. They were leading the league by quite a few sacks, and they, down the stretch, kind of staggered off. And they ended up losing the sack total lead to the Pittsburgh Steelers by one. So, I mean, if that's that type of game, I know the Patriots have some backups in it. Their third string right tackle is going to play, right? Isn't that? Yeah, I mean, Waddle was out today. He did not practice.

You know, he re-injured that leg against Tennessee. So I think it will be Fleming. So if on them I'm putting Dante Fowler, Kaleah Campbell, Yannick Ngakwe on him all throughout the game, those are the three guys every single time. But even then, I mean, Fleming's a professional right tackle, you know what I mean? Yeah. So you're going to have to figure things out. Belichick will probably chip them um I actually think that if Brady uses a lot of screens this could be a blowout really they haven't done a

very good job of defending the screen passes that can neutralize the pass rush I think there's a lot of ways to attack this defense while they're historically good with their takeaways their 37 takeaways lead the league through the regular and postseason they do have weaknesses and i think you can get it into a situation where if the first two drives go the patriots way i don't know how you come back mike one last question sort of on the game before we get to some final thoughts and predictions. And one of the things that really struck me was Pittsburgh's almost insistence on trying to run east-west against that defensive front. That fourth and one play obviously stands out where they try to toss play.

But it just seems like to me, you can't run east-west. You've got to get north-south against this Jacksonville defense. I know they've struggled at times against the run. But it seems like if you try to get to the sidelines, you're dead to rights given the speed they have up front. That's 100% accurate. This team has, I mean, the each-to-one thing, you saw Bilal Powell and Elijah Hood, right?

Elijah Hood? Elijah McGuire. Hood? McGuire? Yeah. Oh, Elijah McGuire. Hood? McGuire? Yeah. Oh, Elijah McGuire. Yeah. Those guys were able to get wide on the Jaguars. LeSean McCoy was able to do things like that.

I'm sure that Todd Haley saw those two games and said, you know what, we can do that with Le'Veon. Yeah, that fourth and one play was maybe one of the worst play calls I've ever seen in the playoffs. Miles Jack and Kelvin Spitt had the speed to get outside. You need to use Deion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and crash through the middle. That's what they're going to have to do. And I think that'll set up James White for outlet passes and screen passes and everything like that. Because this team is not that good against the run. Marcel Darius has helped a lot, this team is not that good against the run.

Marcel Darius has helped a lot, but they're not that good against the run. All right, Mike, we're getting close now to game time. Let me get your sort of final thoughts and predictions. How do you see this one shaking out? I think this pass rush can really get to Tom Brady and mess with him. I have this weird feeling that the Jaguars want a really close one, like a 24-23 style game. I'll say this.

If the Jaguars score 10 points off of turnovers, they have a very good shot of winning this game. If they can get over 24 points, they've got a very good shot of winning this game. I'll predict that they're going to probably win 24-23 and shock the world. There you go. There you go. There you go. Mike K going with the upset.

Jaguars over New England up in Foxborough. And before I let you go, buddy, I've got to get your thoughts. I know you're probably going to have one eye glued to the TV once this one's over. What do you expect in the NFC Championship game? You know what? I just feel like the Vikings just came off an emotionally high, like just improbable win. That letdown, especially when you have to travel,

especially to a stadium that's going to be full of dog masks, that's going to be tough to handle. I think this Eagles defensive line is the only defensive line that kind of is on the same point as the jaguars they've been playing out of their minds since the offense lost carson wentz if they can scheme out throws you know this better than anyone for nick foals they will win this game he just needs to you know he just needs to move the ball honestly if they do a lot of what chip did where they where they have like five plays and they will win this game. He just needs to move the ball. Honestly, if they do a lot of what Chip did,

where they have like five plays and the variation, he can audible out of certain things. Nick's a veteran quarterback. I know he looked like crap against the Giants, or sorry, against the Raiders and the Cowboys. But this past game, outside of the miracle ball that, you know, was dropped and turned into a catch. I thought he looked pretty good.

What'd you think? Yeah, I thought he did too. And I thought obviously Peterson did some good stuff for him from a scheme perspective that, you know, got him some easy read, some good throws,

has a great play cause as well. Obviously people talk about that sort of underneath counter play they ran with, you know, with the Aguilar there. So I, people talk about that sort of underneath counter play they ran with, you know, with Aguilar there. So, I think that's the matchup, Mike. I think it's, you know, what Peterson does from a scheme perspective against Mike Zimmer, you know, that's where this game's going to be won. And, you know, I could, you know, I see where your head's at.

So, you're expecting Jacksonville, Philly in a Super Bowl? Yeah, and I think I'll probably spontaneously combust. But you know what? That's the thing. I think what's weird about all of this, and I think Tony Romo said this on his conference call with CBS the other day, any of these four teams can win the Super Bowl. It never happens like that.

There's always that one team that you're like, eh, you know what I mean? Right. So this year, it's any man's game. I'm over this whole QB, you need a great QB adage stuff, because that's clearly not true. I love Case Keenum at Houston. I was a big fan of Nick Foles when he was in his first run in Philly. But those guys are not at the same level as Brady, Ben Roethlisberger,

Phillip Rivers, all those guys. And they're two wins away from a Super Bowl championship. So I think defense wins championships. If you're on that boat, you're loving this because it's for I mean, that's what, it's four of the top five defense, scoring defenses. Yep. Yep. And three really sort of elite ones, you know, you know, all over the, all across the board in terms of, you know, obviously what Jacksonville has done this year, as well as Minnesota and Philly. He is Mike K, Jags beat writer for First Coast News.

Please do follow him on Twitter at Mike underscore E underscore K-A-Y-E. Mike, my friend, enjoy the games this weekend, buddy. I'll be looking forward to seeing you soon. All right, buddy. Enjoy Mobile. I will, man. Definitely, everybody,

please do give Mike a follow on Twitter. All right, friends. The time for talk is over. We're going to close out this show with some final thoughts as well as predictions for Sunday's AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars. And I've been talking about this game for a week.

We've had some great guests on to talk about this show and about this game. And I think we all sort of know the big sort of points in this game. Which Blake Bortles is going to show up. Can the Patriots make some throws? Can they make some plays in the pass game against this Jacksonville pass defense, which is a historically good pass defense, but they've played some subpar quarterbacks this year. Obviously, they get the Texans twice without Deshaun Watson.

They get the Titans in that offense twice, and we've Titans in that offense twice, and we've seen with that offense and how that offense sort of failed to live up to expectations this year. They get Jacoby Brissett twice. They played some other sort of poor offenses. When they went up against better offenses, particularly, look, Jimmy Garoppolo at the end of the season, he put up big points.

Pittsburgh last week, they put up big points. And so, while the Jaguars have been historically good as a pass defense in terms of at least some numbers and some analytics, is that really going to bear out on Sunday against Tom Brady in this offense? And I think that there will

be times when this Jacksonville pass defense will make some plays. I think there will be some three and outs. I think the Patriots offense has enough from a schematic standpoint as well as a talent standpoint to put points up on the board. On the flip side, looking at this Jacksonville offense, the issue becomes can the Patriots stop the run? Because if they do that, they put this game on Blake Bortles' shoulders and as good as Bortles has been at stretches this year, I think most people are skeptical and rightfully so that Bortles can come into Foxborough

and win an AFC Championship game on his shoulders. They'll need to sort of establish the run, sort of set up the play-action stuff for him to have success. If the Patriots can stop the run, they will be in good shape to win this game. And stopping the run comes down to those sort of three critical questions that I outlined earlier this week,

both in print on LockedOnPatriots.com as well as on the show. Will Bortles audible when the Patriots have a numbers advantage in the box? Will Bortles be an active participant in the run game? And can the Patriots win those one-on-one matchups on the interior of the line and up front?

How those questions get answered will determine if the Patriots can stop the run. But I think the Patriots stop the run. When all is said and done, I still think this is a one-score game. I think Jacksonville maybe gets a touchdown late to sort of cut it to one score, but I do think that this is a one-score game.

I've gone back and forth on the score. I'm going to go 28-20. I think that Jacksonville covers the spread, but the Patriots win this, and they head to the Super Bowl for the second straight year. We'll do quickly on the NFC side. That's going to be a fascinating game to watch. Hopefully, the Patriots can take care of businesses, and we can just sort of watch and enjoy the NFC Championship game. I'll be working.

I'll be recording an episode for all you guys that will drop Sunday night. But going to be a fascinating game to watch. I think the big matchup there is Doug Peterson and his play calling against Mike Zimmer and what he dials up defensively. I've really swung back and forth on this game. But something to me, and this might sound like a wishy-washy type call, but something to me, something's telling me that these Minnesota Vikings are a team of destiny. You see a win like that in the Minneapolis, the Minnesota Miracle,

they're calling it, in that kind of fashion, the chance to play a home Super Bowl, a defense as talented as they are. And obviously Philadelphia's defense, no slouch at all. Two great defenses in this game. But sometimes in a game like this, it looks to be evenly matched. You go for an X-factor type call, and maybe it's a sentimental one. Maybe it's a wishy-washy one, but I think the Vikings pull it out,

which would set up, if it plays out the way I think it does, a Patriots-Vikings Super Bowl, which would be a lot of fun and a tough environment for the Patriots to go in and play a Super Bowl on the other team's home turf. But let's not get upset of ourselves.

We need the Patriots to take care of business on Sunday, and I do think they'd do that. That will do it for this week of Locked On Patriots. Like I said, I will be back Sunday, hopefully with a glorious victory edition, but we'll see how that turns out. Until then, enjoy the games and keep it locked right here to

me, Mark Schofield, and Locked On Patriot.