Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 20, 2019 - Sunday Morning Tailgate

Episode Date: January 20, 2019

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Hey everybody, welcome on into a special Sunday morning tailgate installment of the Lockdown Patriots podcast. It is Sunday, January 20th. As you are probably well aware, it is Championship Sunday. NFC Championship game this afternoon. AFC Championship game featuring your New England Patriots in Kansas City to take on the Chiefs tonight. What we're going to do today, some final thoughts. I got one question that I'm going to get to from a listener. I'm going to run through some numbers from both the NFC and the AFC Championship games,

some sort of stats to keep in mind as these games kick off today. In terms of injuries or anything like that, the Patriots, they are completely healthy. They are completely healthy. They are completely healthy, ready to go. Everybody made it to Kansas City. No surprises on the flight, nothing like that. Kansas City, the one big sort of name to watch was Eric Berry. It seems as if Berry is going to be a go, so they will have Eric Berry back. He was obviously not on the field back in week six. Before we dive into some of these numbers and one listener question to get to, it's going to be a quick and tidy show today because look,

you're probably nervous, maybe get a little bit of a nervous stomach. You know, I was a little nervous last week for this Chargers game. So we're going to imagine by this time this game comes around how I'm going to be feeling. So you probably just want to get in, you want to get out. Maybe you're snowing in a little bit, maybe going to be going out doing some shoveling wherever you're listening. Reminder, follow me on Twitter at mark scofield check out the work at places like inside the pylon.com pro football weekly the score matt waldman's rookie scouting portfolio big blue view part of the sb nation family of websites friends i've mentioned it many times if there is an outlet covering the game of football, odds are I'm doing some work for them.

Before we dive into some numbers, I got a question from one of the great listeners to the Locked on Patriots podcast, Mr. Quindazi on Twitter. And he asks, is there any possibility of this being the Dwayne Allen game. And it's fascinating to think about because, you know, themes tend to sort of develop in the buildup to a game. Last week, one of the themes that developed was, how are the New England Patriots going to slow down the Chargers pass rush, get in pressure with four? And yes, I sort of contributed to that one,

devoted a lot of time and attention to that sort of idea. One of the emerging themes this week is whatever you want to say about the Chiefs offense, Chiefs defense, how the Chiefs defense might be getting better, seem to have a better home record than an away record, seem to be performing better at home, although I still think that that's a function of who they've played. But one of the emerging themes this week is how are the Chiefs going to handle the New England

21 personnel, the power run game from New England that they've really sort of established as an identity for themselves over the past couple of weeks. And when I went back and sort of re-watched that week six game, obviously they used a ton of 21 personnel. And we ran through some of those numbers that Warren Sharp and others tweeted out. You know, 80% success rate throwing the football out of that 21 personnel look back in week six. I think it was like 65% success rate on the ground, averaging 15.4 yards per passing attempt, 5.1, I believe, yards per carry out of 21 personnel.

When you go back and watch that Week 6 game, there were a number of times when they weren't in 21. They were in 22 with two tight ends on the field. And so there is an opportunity here for them to go some 22 personnel stuff and get Dwayne Allen involved, perhaps, perhaps in the passing game. AFC championship games are sometimes, or any sort of championship game, you spend all this time sort of focused on big names, big time players, the Tyree Kills, the Kelsies, the Gronks, the Edelmans. Sometimes there's that unsung hero

who emerges. Could it be Dwayne Allen? It would be a fantastic story. And there certainly is that possibility given the fact that the New England Patriots are going to be featuring a lot of 21 personnel and some 22 personnel looks. So he'll get some snaps. he does with them we'll see later on some numbers i want to get to in the afc side of them a little bit on the nfc side at next gen stats next gen stats on twitter um they do fantastic stuff i know joseph ferriola who i'll see down in mobile uh later on this week uh research assistant over there. They do some really interesting stuff. Over the past couple of days, they've tweeted out some very interesting numbers that I felt it would be good to sort of bring to your attention

before this game kicks off. In sort of one of those something's got to give categories, Patrick Mahomes has thrown more deep passes than any quarterback this season, 94, while the Patriots have allowed the lowest deep completion percentage, 24.2% in the National Football League. And Mahomes is the only quarterback to throw multiple deep touchdowns against the Patriots this season. That was week six.

Patriots still won. That's one of those situations where you're, well, someone's got to give, right? I mean, maybe they still have those deep touchdowns and the Patriots still won. That's one of those situations where you're, well, someone's got to give, right? I mean, maybe they still have those deep touchdowns and the Patriots win. I do think that this becomes a 40 score in the 40s and would tend to favor Kansas City, but who knows? So I thought that was an interesting statistic to throw out there. Another theme that has emerged and something that I've been trying to push here and on radio shows and elsewhere is the fact that this Patriots defense is much better right now than it was even back in week six.

And yes, they had the two losses, one to Miami where they didn't look that good on the road, one to Pittsburgh on the road. This is still a better defense. And they were even pretty good in that Pittsburgh game. It's not like the Steelers put up a ton of points. And here are some numbers to bear that out. Since their bye, coming back in week 12, they have allowed a completion percentage of 59.2%, which is second best in that stretch of time. And yes, that includes the playoffs. Now, you could say that that's also a factor of who they've played since that period of time because you're seeing a josh mcgowan in week 12 you're

seeing kirk cousins in week 13 osweiler slash tannahill in week 14 rothlisberger in 15 and then two rookie quarterbacks josh allen sam donald in 16 and 17, and then Phillip Rivers last week. So there is that. But still, second best in terms of completion percentage. In terms of tight window throws that they forced, 23.3% of pass attempts against them have gone into tight windows. That's the highest in the league. The average separation on passing attempts, just 2.8 yards, also first in the league.

And their pressure rate, they have pressured the opposing quarterback on 32.3% of dropbacks, also best in the league. All of this, again, since week 12. A lot has been made about the fact that the Chiefs are going to be a different football team than we saw in the league. All of this again since week 12. A lot has been made about the fact that the Chiefs are going to be a different football team than we saw in week 6. There's the Kareem Hunt, Damian Williams situation. There's the

fact you're going to get Eric Berry back, Justin Houston back. This is a different Patriots defense. These teams are different. But the fact that the Patriots defense has come on of late and might be the best defense left in the dance, that might be the difference.

Another thing to think about, Phil Perry put up a great piece wondering if the Patriots are going to press Tyreek Hill. And we've wondered about this on this show, wondered about it on a conversation on the Locked On Patriots Slack channel. If you'd like an invite to that for this game, hit me up at Mark Schofield on Twitter, mark.schofield.insidethepylon.com.

I can guarantee that the Locked On Patriots Slack channel is going to be hopping on Sunday night. How will the Patriots game plan to stop Hill? Again, from NextGenStats, the Patriots defensive backs have been at their best in press coverage while Tyree Kill has consistently beaten the press averaging 4.1 yards per route against press coverage this season. Patriots defensive backs, they allow the second lowest yards per attempt in press coverage, 5.1, and the lowest passer rating, 58.6. That's very good on the whole. Stephon Gilmore, eighth highest press coverage rate among defensive backs.6 that's very good on the whole stefan gilmore eighth highest press coverage rate among

defensive backs so he's impressed a lot he's allowed just one reception on 15 deep targets when in press coverage and four receptions on eight deep targets when in off coverage what do those numbers tell you those numbers tell you you want gmore in press. However, like they said, Tyreek Hill averages 4.1 yards per route against press coverage, best in any season by any player since 2016. So that's pretty scary to think about. Finally, one last thing to think about, next-gen stats. Run play percentage by running back on field if sonny michelle is on the field they run the football 50 i mean excuse me 75.6 percent of the time

most in the national football league james devlin if he's on the field they run the ball 70.1 percent of the time second most so if those two guys are on the field they're probably going to run it james white however just 21.4 percent of the time do they run the football when he's on the field. 230th among running backs for the minimum of 300 snaps this season. So you see those numbers and you think, well, if we get that 21 personnel look with Michelle and Devlin on the field, they're going to run the ball. What does that do? It sets up the play-action pass. I think they're going to hit a couple of big play-action plays out of this two-running back look. Maybe a couple to Gronk.

They hit a couple to Edelman last week. So I'd watch for some stuff like that. Finally, a couple things to throw out about the NFC game. We haven't talked a ton about the NFC game. It's going to be a fun matchup. I'm excited to see it. We're focused talked a ton about the NFC game. It's going to be a fun matchup. I'm excited to see it. We're focused on the Kansas City Chiefs. But something to think about here, Aaron Donald, he leads the National Football League in pressures and is responsible for the fastest average time to

sack, 3.6 seconds, while Drew Brees has the third biggest drop-off in passer rating when under pressure. His passer rating drops by 66.7 points from when he's not pressured to when he's pressured. His passer rating when kept clean, 124.7, best in the national football league. His passer rating when pressured, just 58. That is 10th lowest. That is a huge drop huge drop off if we're firm believers in pressure equals production as we were last week Aaron Donald just

pressuring Drew Brees could make a big difference in this game something interesting to watch when that NFC game gets going the Rams and the Saints they do it completely differently on the offensive side of the football. Again, thanks to next-gen stats. The Rams have scored a touchdown from three different groupings.

Just three. 11 personnel, three wide receivers, one tight end, one running back. 12 personnel, one running back, two tight ends, two receivers, and 13 personnel. One running back, three tight ends, one receiver. That is fewest in the National Football League. Just three different personnel groupings. While the Saints, they have scored touchdowns using the most different personnel groupings. 13.

Obviously, you've got the Taysom Hill factor, six offensive lineman personnel. 13 offensive groups for the Saints have scored touchdowns this year. That's fascinating So you're going to see two very different teams going at it Finally we're going to tie it all together With all of this Only four running backs Face more blockers than defenders

In the box on average That's with at least 65 carries To their name Three of those running back are going to be playing today. C.J. Anderson, Damian Williams, and Todd Gurley. Those guys get to run against light boxes, and it makes sense. You're going up against the Chiefs, you want more defensive backs on the field, given what they can do in the passing game and the weapons they have. You're going up against the Rams, you probably don't have a choice because, as we just saw,

they are an 11-personnel team. They run 11 personnel on approximately 95% of their snaps. I'm pulling up the actual number right now thanks to sharpfootballstats.com. And pulling that up. And we'll get all plays here, not just pass plays. For whatever reason, when you go to that site, it loads all plays. The Los Angeles Rams. It's off the charts.

90% of their offense is in 11 personnel. Now they throw the ball 59% of the time, but they run the ball 41% of the time. They have a successful run on 60% of their rushing attempts. They have 24 rushing touchdowns out of 11 personnel, and they average 5.4 yards per carry out of 11 personnel. There are some teams that are a little bit better running the football in terms of yards per carry.

For example, Green Bay, 5.7. So that's a little bit better. There was somebody else right here. Carolina, 6.3. But these are teams that are doing it, that are using it, say, 50% of the time, not 90. So the numbers sort of build for them. They are an 11 personnel team. You will see it a ton this afternoon.

Finally, last thing I want to leave you with is a look ahead I'm going to be back later tonight hopefully with a glorious victory edition but win or lose I will be back breaking this game down the next you will hear from me

is Tuesday morning I will be headed down to Mobile Tuesday morning bright and early I think I'm leaving for the airport at like 4 in the morning maybe even 3.30. But I've got a show ready to roll,

previewing the Senior Bowl quarterbacks. That will be going up Tuesday morning. You'll hear from me then. And then I will be doing shows down from Mobile, getting some audio from players, some other people, doing a whole week of shows to get you through Senior Bowl week. If the Patriots win tonight, we will get back to Patriots coverage after the bye week. If the Patriots lose, we're on to the draft anyway.

But no matter what, I will be here with you the entire way. Until later tonight, best of luck to all of you. Hope your game day rituals come through. I'll see you on the other side. Thanks for watching!