Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 3, 2019 - Take Thursday

Episode Date: January 3, 2019

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey there everybody, welcome on in to a Take Thursday installment of the Locked On Patriots Podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair for Thursday, January 3rd, 2019. Still getting the date right, thankfully. I would say, take the over-under. I will set it at three. I'm going to screw it up three times before we finally get deep into 2019. So far, I haven't yet. I will be honest with you guys if I do, if I have to re-rack it, edit it, anything like that.

I'm two for two so far, but I know I'm going to bust out and make a mistake. And I will tell you, every time I record an episode, the first thing I do after I hit record and start talking is drag my cursor down to the bottom right so that date pops up so I can double check it. And even then I still get it wrong. So we're going to set the over under at three. I'd say take the over, but I will let you guys know how many times I screw it up as we get here into 2019. As I said, take Thursday today. Got a ton of questions from the listeners. Fantastic to see. Remember, you can get questions also via the Locked on Patriots hotline, which is up and running again, 240-670-6016.

Call, leave a message, text, whatever you want to do to get in touch with me. Also, Locked on Patriots Slack channel. That is still up and running as well. Conversation going on there all the time. You can hit me up for an invite. How? Well, follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. You can check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt

Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites. Also, if you want to send me an email, mark.schofield at InsideThePylon.com and that is actually where our first question comes from which we'll get to in a second. A little bit later, we're going to talk some stuff about the future,

potential new defensive coordinator slash play caller for New England. We're going to talk what we might be looking at in the draft. We've got a question on draft stuff, also a question on Drew Locke. Third segment of the show, we're going to talk rule changes. We're going to talk my predictions for wild card weekend. Got that question from my mom. So look, my mom asks a question, friends, you answer it. But first, like I said, that first question we're going to get to, we're going to devote the opening segment of today's show

came via email from Tommy Seattle. I hope I pronounced that correctly. Who emailed, had some nice things to say about the show, which Tommy, I do appreciate. But his question is this, a question I have for you is which team do you want to see the Patriots play in the divisional round? You've touched on it in the show, but I was hoping to get a deeper dive into the teams. And he makes the case in his email where, you know, he's a little bit worried about playing Houston, even though that's probably his preferred choice to play in the divisional round. And I will come out at the outset and say that that's exactly where I'm going to go. I'm going to go with Houston. That's the team that I do want to see the Patriots play in the first round. But let me tell you why I don't want to see the other teams.

And we'll start with that team that Houston is playing that opening game to wildcard weekend. Indianapolis. There are a couple of reasons why the Colts scare me right now. One is when you look at them on the defensive side of the ball. And yes, this is a team that the Patriots beat. And I do think that the Patriots would win this game. It would be at Gillette. I do think they would win this game, but I think the Patriots would face some trouble with the Colts for a couple of reasons. One, that defense has been getting better as the season has progressed. And remember, when these teams played back early in the year, a big reason for that

defense and the way it's gelled didn't dress. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard, he was listed as questionable and he did not dress for that game. A guy that leads the NFL in tackles, leads the NFL in solo tackles, fantastic rookie linebacker. True sort of sideline to sideline player. A guy that has basically now become a one-man wrecking machine ever since he didn't make the Pro Bowl. He said in week 17, he wanted to get like 40 tackles or something like that. A true star rookie linebacker. And that could give New England problems, particularly against the run. And if you look at the Patriots and you think that you might get some cold weather or it might be the type of game plan where you're going to want to pound the ball a bit, Leonard could be a big factor in that. So that's one reason.

Another reason, and you're going to hear me talk a lot about this right now as we go through some of the rest of the teams, and that's DVOA. I talked about it a lot more last year. I haven't talked about it a ton this year, but let's remember DVOA, football outsiders, sort of the thing that they put together, defense valued over average. And when you look at the rankings for some of these teams in the playoffs, let me just correct myself. It's defense adjusted value over average. I always forget the adjusted there. Anyway, but when you look at the final DVO rankings for the teams in the AFC playoffs, there are a couple of things that stick out. Now, they've recently been doing the weighted DVOA, which is where they try to sort

of encapsulate how a team is playing right now, making more recent games, you know, more important how they weigh this. And if you do that, your top team by DVOA over football outsiders, which has basically been the top team all year long, is Kansas City. And then you've got New Orleans at two. And then you've got the Chargers at three. And the Chargers are also, in terms of DVOA, they're the third best team in the league right now, according to DVOA. They're number three on offense and they're number eight on defense.

And so that's why when I've made the argument that the Chargers scare me the most, this kind of speaks to it. You look at what they can do both offensively and defensively, that's a scary team. But we're talking about Indianapolis. And that's a team that, in terms of total DVOA, just overall, they're 9th. Actually, excuse me, they're 8th. And in their weighted DVOA, they're 4th. When you see how they've sort of played down the stretch to get themselves into the playoffs.

And they're a pretty balanced team. 10th in offensive DVOA, 10th in defensive DVOA. So that's obviously cause for concern when you're thinking about Indianapolis. When you look at the Houston Texans, who the Colts play that opening game, they are 11th in total DVOA, weighted, they're 13th. They're the lowest of all the AFC playoff teams. Part of it is their offensive DVOA. It's just 13th. They're the lowest of all the AFC playoff teams. Part of it is their offensive DVOA. It's just 18th.

Excuse me, it's 21st. Their defense is 7th. So at least by defense-adjusted value over average, they are the worst offense in the playoffs. Worst offense not just in the AFC, overall. They're just behind Chicago, who has the number one defense in DVOA. The Texans don't have that. And so when you sort of look at the Texans, you know, they're the team that I think, even though they might be, schematically in a sense, because of Deshaun Watson, what he can do because of Watson's competitive toughness, you know, a tough out.

I still think they're the team that I want to see the New England Patriots face. Now, the other two teams in this AFC dance, the Chargers, I just mentioned them. Look, you know, they're near the top of DVOA, whatever category you want to look at. So that's cause for concern. And then there's Baltimore. Sixth in overall DVOA, seventh in weighted. They are ahead of New England in the weighted DVOA. New England's just a notch ahead of them. No, wait, no. They're ahead of New England in both. So there's that to consider. 15th in offensive DVOA. 3rd in defensive.

The Ravids are going to be a tough out as well. So when you put a lot of this stuff together, it's the Chargers that scare me the most, as I said last week. And then I think Baltimore. Then Indy, then Houston. That's kind of how I'd put them. And I know people will say, you know, again, the Watson factor, it scares me. Watson's competitive toughness scares me.

Watson had a huge game against New England last year when he was healthy. Yeah, he looked a little shaky week one this year, but he was still coming off the injury. Maybe it's going to be a different scenario. They don't scare me as much because I think when you look at them from a schematic perspective, there are things you can do to take away Watson. They don't run a ton of stuff offensively, at least in the past game.

It's Flood, it's Yankee, it's Mesh, and some variations thereof. There's not a lot of schematic diversity. So I think game plan-wise, you can figure them out. The defense with Clowney and Watt, talented Watt, got banged up last week with a wrist. So that's going to be something to watch. They're going to have a tough game to get past Indy. So even if they do, they might be coming in a little banged up.

And so that's going to be something to watch. So that's kind of, again, how I rank them. The team I'm scared about the most playing is the Chargers, then Baltimore, then Indy, then Houston. So I'd like to see Houston come to town. We'll talk about that a little bit later. Up next, we're going to sort of look to the future. We're going to talk new defensive play caller

if Brian Flores moves on. We're going to talk about some potential draft thoughts for the New England Patriots, some Drew Locke stuff, and a little bit later, some NFL rules stuff, as well as my look at Wild Card Weekend. That's all ahead on this Take Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots.

Mark Schofield, back with you now on this Take Thursday installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast. Aofield back with you now on this Take Thursday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast. A couple of reminders for you. Look, listen. It's draft season for fans of a bunch of other teams. Twelve teams are in the dance. The rest of the teams are watching from home.

Twenty teams out there thinking about the draft. What do you want to do if you're thinking about the draft? You want to listen to Locked On NFL Draft. Trevor Sikma, John Ledyard, they crush it every single day, doing stuff all the time. Those guys over at the Draft Network are doing great work. Kyle Krabs just released his top 150, his 150-player board. You might want to check that out over at thedraftnetwork.com. Also, don't forget, Locked On Patriots phone line is up and running again,

240-670-6016. Call, text, leave a message, and let me know your thoughts on the New England Patriots. Would love to hear from you. Speaking of hearing from you, I heard from our great friend Ricky Keeler via the Locked On Patriots Slack channel. My question for tomorrow's show would be, we seem to have an idea of who would be the offensive coordinator if McDaniels does decide to truly leave this time. However, if Flores takes one of these jobs, who are some

candidates inside the organization that could take his place if the Patriots don't go externally with that spot? I think if you look at the internal options, bearing in mind that, look, Bill Belichick is going to have his hand in what the defense is doing. If you assume Flores is gone, here are your then three remaining defensive coaches. You have defensive line coach Brendan Daly, quarterbacks coach Josh Boyer, and safeties coach Steve Belichick. And as much as we might see Steve Belichick grow into more and more responsibility down the road.

He's in his third year as the safeties coach after five years as a coaching assistant. He doesn't really have any sort of defensive play caller slash defensive coordinator type background on his resume. He's a couple of years away from getting that kind of gig. But you could probably say the same thing about the other guys. Look, if they're going to go from within, it's probably going to be Brendan Daly, their defensive line coach. And his resume is pretty long in terms of serving as a defensive line coach. He started his NFL coaching career on the Vikings staff from 2006 to 2008 as a defensive assistant and a defensive line coach.

He helped the Vikings defensive line become a run-stuffing machine. During his time there, they were the first time in NFL history to lead the league in Russian defense for three consecutive seasons. They held opponents to fewer than 75 yards Russian per game in each of those seasons.

And yes, I'm just reading from his page over at Patriots.com. We're all learning together. But he was also a college defensive line coach in Villanova. He was coaching with the Rams in their defensive line. Then he went back to Minnesota. He was a defensive coaching assistant with New England for one year. Then he was defensive line with the Minnesota Vikings, and then he comes back to New England.

I think I got that right. This is written a little funny. But in their fourth season as a defensive line coach, and fifth season overall in New England, he had one year as a defensive coaching assistant. Okay, I think I've pieced it together. So it was basically Minnesota, the Rams, Minnesota, then the Patriots. There we go. Got it together now. So he's primarily been just a defensive line coach.

And the promotional way things are usually done in New England is you go linebackers coach, then defensive coordinator slash play caller, however you want to phrase that. That's how it usually goes. And so they don't have a linebackers coach right now because Flores is still kind of failing in that role. The other option might be cornerbacks coach Josh Boyer. Again, he has 11 years of experience as a coach, three seasons as defensive backs coach, but he's in his seventh season now as cornerbacks coach. They've kind of split those duties up now between safeties and corners. And he's done a great job with the defensive backs. Look, you look at some of the years where he was their defensive backs coach, 2011, their defense backfield was top two in the NFL in interceptions,

and so he's done some good things. But I still think that if you take a step back, realize where they've been, how they've handled moving guys up to defensive play caller slash defensive coordinator, I think that this might point to them going outside. The other option is maybe they do bump one of these guys to linebacker. Maybe it's Daly. Maybe they move Belichick down to a defensive line coach. They let Boyer become defensive backs coach again.

Maybe that's sort of the rotation, but Belichick handles more of the defensive coordinator slash play calling duties, and they groom daily to take over. I think they go externally. If they go internally, that's my guess. Next question comes to us from our great friend Erica Prohl at Erica erica's homes for you on twitter and she asks a question about the upcoming nfl draft and that question is other than who will be the next quarterback in new england whenever that happens what's the most pressing position the pats will be looking for in this year's draft class and And I think it starts up front on the defensive side of the ball. Patriots have some decisions that they have to make.

Obviously, Trey Flowers is one. You know, are the Patriots going to give him money? Are they going to give him the payday? Or, as we might expect, given how it seems like, say, the Jets might have $100 million in cap room, is he going to get the kind of big payday that might make it impossible for the Patriots to bring him back? Are they confident in guys like Dietrich Weiss and Derek Rivers

and John Simon, who would again need to be re-signed, that they could move on from Trey Flowers? And I know we've talked about Flowers here a ton. A lot of people have talked about Flowers. There are people out there saying, you know, dedicated threads on Twitter and the like to, you know, we got to pay this guy. But we know how the Patriots do business.

And so they might move on from him. They might look at Claiborne, who's under contract for next year. They might look at Brennan John Simon back on the cheap. You've got Rivers. You've got Wise under contract for next year they might look at Brendan John Simon back on the cheap you've got Rivers you've got wise under contract for next year you go about it that way and so there's a decision to be made there there's a decision to be made on the interior defensive line both Danny Shelton and Malcolm Brown are not under contract for next year and so when

you're looking at the interior of the defensive line, you might need to address that position, and so you put that together, and I think either edge or interior defensive line are going to be positions of need, hopefully just one, potentially both, and so as much as people like me are going to be in the, my gosh, we need to get a quarterback, not that I think they'd be in the mix for one of the round one quarterbacks or the round one quarterback, depending on how you look on these guys, more on that in a second. This might be a draft where if you're a fan of defense, you might be excited to see what the Patriots do.

I'll throw out some potential names to sort of start watching and kind of working through some of the stuff over at the draft network, some of my own stuff, my own sort of scouting notes. Remember, I'm a quarterback guy. So when it comes to the interior defensive line, for example, I'm not really your go-to guy, but I crib from guys like Kyle Krabs and John Ledyard and Joe Marino and the guys over the draft network and some of my own work. And Quinton Williams, I think anybody who has watched any football knows what he can do in the interior defensive line. There's a reason why he's a top five type player.

You see him explode off the snap. Incredible first step. Just move on. You're not getting him, New England. If you're a Patriots fan, hopefully he goes to the NFC. You know, I think you could say probably the same thing for Ed Oliver. You're not seeing him. Raekwon Davis, big guy, tall guy, you know, for an interior defensive lineman, but he's probably a top 15, top 20 type player. So I don't think you're seeing him. When we start getting to

the mix for where the Patriots might be picking, you know, you might see a guy like, say, Jeffrey Simmons, interior defensive lineman for Mississippi State, even though he's more of a three technique guy that's going to be playing over tackles and guards as opposed to inside on centers. Rashawn Gary, another sort of three technique type guy. He might be a guy that could be available when the Patriots are picking at the end of the first round. You look at Gerald Willis from Miami.

He's a little bit undersized. Looking at something that Joe Marino has put together on him, leverage is a little bit of an issue with him. Maybe he could play inside, but you're probably seeing, again, more of a three-technique type guy. But he's a player that you probably

would want to watch as far as the interior defensive line goes. Christian Wilkins. He's a guy that I really like out of clubs, and that clubs and defensive line gets a ton of attention. There was a thought that maybe all those guys would go first round. I think he's probably slid into more late first round, early second range. He would be an interesting guy to watch on the interior. And then Rashard Lawrence, a guy from LSU.

Those would be some names on the interior of the defensive line. When we start talking more edge types the interior of the defensive line. When we start talking more edge types, the guys like Josh Allen, you're not going to see him. But where you're looking at what the Patriots might be drafting at the end of the first round, Zach Allen is a guy that you probably want to keep in mind. He may not be the most athletic pass rusher out there. He might have some flexibility issues, some stiffness in the hips.

But he might be a good guy to look at. Montez Sweat from Mississippi State would be another sort of edge guy in that late first round, early second round area. So you could look at him as well. I think that's the direction they will probably go, Erica. They will probably go defensive front help. I think when you look at how they've addressed some of the other needs on the

defensive side of the ball, you're going to get Juwan Bentley back. Christian Sam is still on this roster for a reason. They must like what they see from him. They added Simon. So if they do decide to move on from Trey Flowers and they go edge, these might be some of the guys. But I think no matter what,

given the decisions they have to make on the defensive front, you're probably going to see defensive front help. Final question comes to us from NFL Draft Prospects on Twitter, at NFL Potential. He has a question about Drew Locke. And that question is, would Drew Locke be a good pick in the first round to be developed as the quarterback of the future?

And for the Patriots, it's a tricky fit. You know, what's stood out to me watching Drew Locke over the past couple of years now are a couple of things. The arm talent is there. You know, I'm looking at my notes right now from when I watched him after the 2016 season and And the notes might sort of write up on him. Great to elite arm talent. Good process and speed on RPO type plays. Pretty good placement on most throws. Can throw some routes with good anticipation.

Hitches, comebacks, corners. Fairly good athlete. But then the same year, my weakness is on him. Baylor-esque offense. Lots of hitch routes, comeback routes, go routes with tunnel screens, the occasional corner route, post route, or slant route. Sloppy footwork when not in RPO structures. Lots of half-field reads and one-read concepts.

Loves the fastball. Needs to learn the touch. And then what was weird about him was watching him last year, the 2017 season, it seems like he always emphasized trying to take things off throws. Watching him a little bit this year and watching him in the bowl game, for example, you saw basically who he is as the quarterback. He can make some splash throws, but he will also do some things with his footwork that are very inconsistent.

There were times when he was attempting fadeaway throws when he didn't need to attempt fadeaway throws. Lots of one-read stuff. One of his better games this year was against Florida, but my notes on that game, a lot of one-reads, whether it's goes, whether it's backside hitches, backside verticals, backside posts. So you're not seeing him do a ton in sort of diagnosing and deciphering what a defense is doing.

Now that being said, there is definitely a home for him in the National Football League. And he may play himself, or he may have already played himself, into the end of the first round. I think he's a late first round type quarterback. New England might not be the best environment for him because of the offense and the way that the Patriots structured things from a schematic standpoint on the offensive side of the ball. But there are certain places where I think it could fit in and fit well. I mean, you look at some of the more downfield passing games in the league right now. You know, a place like Tampa Bay.

You know, maybe they get back into the end of the first round and they get themselves some Jameis Winston insurance. Of course, that depends on where they go with their next offensive coordinator or head coach. But, you know, they had some vertical elements to their game at times under Dirk Cutter, and I thought that might be a good little fit. Washington might make some sense. Gruden does a lot from mirrored passing concepts and half-field reads,

and they had some vertical stuff to their game this year. They were pretty aggressive even when Alex Smith went down, and they stayed aggressive with Colt McCoy and Josh Johnson. So that might be a good fit too. So there's definitely a place where he can land in the NFL and be developed. I just don't know if New England is that spot. But thanks everybody for those questions. Up next, we're going to talk my thoughts on wildcard weekend

and my thoughts on how the rules this year sort of impacted the play on the field. That's ahead on this Take Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this Take Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots. Two more questions to get to first. From the great at Reluctant underscore Trade NMAC on Twitter, who always asks a question for Take Thursday. I appreciate it so much.

After a full regular season, what's your view on the rule changes this year and the continued attempts to make scoring easier at the expense of the defense? At what stage is the game-slash-competition comprised by such efforts? And it's a fascinating question, one I could probably devote an entire podcast to, let alone a portion of a segment. But I'm going to try to fit in my thoughts here, and basically it's this. I understand why the league is doing what it's doing. And they're doing it, yes,

because of player safety in part. And I do believe that there is an effort underway to sort of protect the future of the game. I understand it. As a father who played the game, who grew up in the game, who has been given so much by the game, I now have a seven-year-old son

who sees his dad writing about football and talking about football and being on the radio and on podcasts and everywhere else about football and who played football. And he sees trophies and pictures and things like that. And he wants to play football too. And so thankfully there are things like flag football leagues and things like that that we've put him into to sort of give him the exposure to the game while he grows and develops and while we sort of figure out if he's even going to like the game so I

appreciate that there is an effort underway to sort of make the game safer protect the players and I do appreciate that I get that and I respect that but there is also and you can't deny the influence of fantasy football on the NFL and how it's changing sort of how the NFL views things. You know, you can say that Goodell was worried about sort of competition and things like that when he wanted the Week 16, Week 17 games to have an emphasis on divisional games to keep playoff races intact, and I get that. But there's also this, you can't get away from the fact that Week 16

has now sort of become the championship week for fantasy leagues. And so you want those games to be competitive. You don't want guys being shut down in Week 16. You look at, you go to a game, and you've got all the out-of-town scoreboards and stats and all that stuff. It's because people want to see how their fantasy teams are doing. The influx of red zone channel. People want to see scoring. They want to see how their fantasy teams are doing. The influx of red zone channel. People want to see scoring.

They want to see points. Nobody cares to see a 9-6 game with a couple of interceptions and fumbles. Unless you're playing in an IDP league. And so sort of the way that fantasy football has brought the game to more casual fans and even less than casual fans has been great for keeping the game alive keeping people excited about football making football a year-round thing which is great for a guy like me who gets paid to cover it year-round but the league certainly wants to maximize score and it did make it tough on defenses and there were all these pieces written by

including people like myself that look the game has now changed patrick mahomes at all they have changed the game it is an offensive league the paradigm shift is upon us well not so fast when you see how the rams have stumbled a bit when you see how some defenses have begun to assert themselves where you can make the case that the two most dangerous teams on either side of the bracket right now are the Ravens and the Bears. Why? Because of their defenses and what they can do. Or maybe the Chargers because of their defense and what they can do. And so the defenses will figure it out.

The game has changed in the sense that it used to be as a defense you want to get a three and out. You want to get the stop, get the ball back. Three and out is much tougher to come by now. So what do you want to do? Hold them. Keep them out of the end zone, maybe give up field goals, trade field goals for touchdowns. Fantastic. And create a couple of big plays of your own, whether a turnover, a scoop and score, a pick six, whatever. If you do that as a defense, you're getting the job done. So I think it's just going to be the next sort of step in the evolution of football. Now we're going to see defenses sort of adjust how they approach the game,

and it'll be fun to watch. Our final question comes from Mom, at CarolSco on Twitter. And like I said, look, guys, girls, if you have a podcast and Mom asks you a question, you answer it. So she asks for predictions on the wildcard games. Let's sort of start, and we'll go in chronological order. You've got Indy at Houston. That's the one that kicks us off Saturday afternoon.

Houston at home favored by two, which basically tells you, look, home teams, if you think they're getting three, you know, they're giving three at home. It almost tells you that Indy's the favorite here. I know I just got done in the opening segment talking about how Houston's the weakest of the playoff teams, yada, yada, yada. I think they survived this week.

Why? Deshaun Watson. And look, maybe this is a Homer-ish pick. The guy was my QB1. Maybe this is me, you know, fantasizing about the quarterback, being gallant, being a true hero. But I think Watson and company have enough to get by Indianapolis. The struggle for them will be, you know, the division around

and potentially beyond. But I think the Texans do enough in this game to win by like three. It'll be close, but I think the Texans win this one. The Saturday night game. And the Saturday night games are always the fun ones, I think, to watch on wildcard weekend. This one could be very interesting. Seattle at Dallas.

Dallas, home favorite by one. Again, that makes you sort of think that Seattle is going to be the pick here. And that's where I'm going to go with this game. And Dallas has gotten better since the acquisition of Amari Cooper. Don't get me wrong. That's been a much improved offense with the acquisition of Cooper. His ability to get separation has made life easier for Dak Prescott, who is a quarterback that at times struggles with ball placement.

So this was a perfect move for the Cowboys, especially if you start to peek ahead of this year's draft class. Maybe it doesn't have a top flight wide receiver, but it has some really talented guys. Cooper's still relatively young. Very smart move by Dallas. That being said, I think Seattle has enough to get by them. Russell Wilson can do some magical things.

Yeah, the Cowboys would get some pressure on him, but he can escape from that. Yeah, they might have half of the field locked down with Byron Jones, but Wilson has a way to make things happen in the pocket. That defense has been playing good enough. I think Seattle wins that one on Saturday night.

Let's get to Sunday. You've got what I think might be the game of the weekend. That Chargers at Ravens game. Ravens favored by 2 and a half at home. Not sure what the weather is going to be like on Sunday. Let's look that up here. Well, according to my trusty iPhone weather app, it looks like it's going to be partly cloudy, 55 at least here in the Maryland area. And so you probably think that this might be an ideal situation for the Chargers to come east. Well, the other issue is Chargers are a

team that typically struggles when they come east, especially what's going to be for them a 10 a.m. start. And so that's issue number one. Issue number two is these are two teams that just saw each other recently, and the Ravens got the better of the Chargers in that game. There might have been a bit of a letdown. Obviously, the Chargers were coming off that huge week 15 victory over the Chiefs on that Thursday night, but still a tough loss for them. and Ravens, they're playing well. That defense is playing well. I will go with Baltimore in this game. That leaves us with the final game.

Philly at Chicago. BDN, Mr. Nick Foles himself. Can he do it again? Well, Vegas says no. Biggest favorites of the week are the Bears, favored by six. And let me put it this way.

I've just spent the bulk of my New Year's weekend looking at the Eagles. I've been looking on the Bears, working on the Bears all year long. I've seen what these teams do. I'm going with Chicago in this one. I think it's going to be close. Eagles might cover, but I think that this is a game that the Bears are going to win. Why? To build off the point we were just talking

about, that defense. I think that defense is going to do enough for some turnover or two, for some mistake, get it done. So those are my picks. You've got Houston at home. You've got Seattle on the road, Baltimore at home, Chicago at home. What would that set up?

Well, that's going to give you Baltimore at KC. Another rematch of that game. That's going to give you Houston at New England. So maybe you're getting what you want in that situation. You're getting the New England Patriots hosting the Houston Texans on the NFC side. What would that set up? Well, you'd have the Saints. They would be hosting Seattle. And then you'd have the Saints. They would be hosting Seattle.

And then you'd have the Rams hosting the Bears. It would be two pretty exciting games to watch. So that's how I envision it unfolding. Picks that are guaranteed to be wrong. But that will do it for today. I will be back tomorrow for a game day edition. We're going to talk a little bit more about these games, what I'm expecting to watch, what I'll be looking for in all these wild card games. Dive into it a little day edition. We're going to talk a little bit more about these games when I'm expecting to watch what I'll be looking for in all these wild card games,

dive into it a little bit more. I will be back then after that for a Sunday morning tailgate, an abbreviated one where we'll talk about some of what we saw the night before, reset the stage for the Sunday action. That's the weekend ahead. Until next time, keep it locked right here

to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Papers.