Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 4, 2019 - Gameday Edition

Episode Date: January 4, 2019

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Hello everybody and welcome on into a Friday wildcard game day edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield is back in the big chair for today, Friday, January 4th, 2019, episode 474 of the Locked On Patriots podcast. That's overall, not just with me, but I'm starting to count down to 500 here. I think that's kind of cool. Anyways, you might notice the sound quality even better. Why?

Thanks to my lovely wife for my birthday, I got a brand new Yeti Blue microphone. Sound quality on this should be amazing. So kicking things up a notch even higher here in 2019. Like I said, my one resolution is to be better overall, and that includes here at the Locked On Patriots podcast. What we're going to do today, I've got a couple of leftover questions that I'm going to get to a little bit later in the show, talking about things to watch for with the Patriots' potential divisional route opponents, as well as expectations for basically the Patriots' philosophy headed into the playoffs. At the start, though, we're going to talk the games this weekend.

I'm going to have the one thing I'm looking for, the one key, I think, to each of the games over wildcard weekend. Before we do that, though, a reminder to follow me on Twitter, at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites, friends. If they're covering football, chances are I'm doing some work for them. Let's get into it now. And I made my predictions yesterday, thanks to a question from my lovely mom.

Hi, mom. But I think I wanted to get a little bit deeper into these games. I've got a piece up over at the score talking about the four keys to wildcard weekend. Now, that hasn't gone up yet. It might get broken down into two pieces, but either way, this is how I've broken these games down. The one sort of question I think that needs to be answered, and depending on how it's answered, might tell you how these games go. We're going

to go in chronological order start with that game saturday afternoon the colts at the texans and even though i've been harping on the point that yeah the texans offense is a little bit i don't want to say limited schematically but they don't do a ton of different stuff in terms of route concepts they do things with eye candy and misdirection and changing angles and things like that to get defenses confused, but a lot of the route concepts are pretty basic. That being said, here's a number that I want to throw at you to start out. 32.2%. That is the Andre Hopkins target share this year in the Texans passing game. Now, he saw 163 passing targets this year,

which was fifth most in the league amongst wide receivers. Guys like Julio Jones, Juju Smith-Schuster, Devontae Adams, Antonio Brown, they saw more pure targets. Jones was the league high with 170. But those teams were throwing it like 640, 680 times this year. Texans just threw it 506 times. Meaning that he was targeted, Hopkins was, on 32.2 of their passing plays, which was the highest in the league.

And Jones, who saw the most targets overall with 170, he saw 27.6% of Atlanta's passing targets. which was the highest in the league. And Jones, who saw the most targets overall with 170, he saw 27.6% of Atlanta's passing targets. This Houston Texans passing game runs through DeAndre Hopkins. And so the answer for Indianapolis has got to be when Houston throws, do they have Hopkins covered? And if so, that's going to force Watkins to go other places. Even when, if you look at sort of expected completion percentage, there are times when, at least according to the numbers over at NFL Next Gen Stats, they shouldn't complete passes. Watson

would still throw to him. So covering him is just a part of the equation here for Indianapolis. But first, you've got to cover him. You look at last week against Jacksonville, for example. There was a play early in that game when they ran Yankee concept, one of their favorite designs. Other receivers going sort of the vertical route, the post, he kind of kept it upfield, more vertical, but it was still deep route, Hopkins on the dig underneath, and he was just wide open. They just left him uncovered. And so that's going to be the question. Can they, the Indianapolis Colts, lock him down, and if Watson forces some throws in his direction, the direction of Hopkins, can they get in front of those?

That's one thing I'm watching there. Can they contain DeAndre Hopkins? Now let's look at that night game. That's the Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys game. It's going to be a fascinating game to watch unfold down in Dallas. And the thing I'm going to be watching for there is

protecting Dak Prescott. Here's another number for you. 75%. As well as the number 5. In four games this year, the Dallas Cowboys gave up five or more sacks. They lost three of those, 75%, including back in week three

when these two teams, the Seahawks and the Cowboys, squared off. They sacked Dak Prescott five times in that game, including one from Frank Clark. We're going to talk about him in a second. And the Seattle Seahawks won that game. Now, these are two different teams than the teams that squared off back in Week 3. Earl Thomas is hurt. Amari Cooper is now a member of the Dallas Cowboys.

So that might change how this game sort of starts to play out on the field. But protecting Dak Prescott is going to be critical. Prescott has thrown nine touchdowns and two interceptions when he's been pressured this year. So that's pretty good. But his efficiency has dipped when he faces pressure. You know, his passer rated under pressure this year is 87.1, well below his overall passer percentage. And it's not, you know, one of the top 10 numbers.

It's basically like league average against pressure. So you can force him to make some mistakes. And again, they lost three of the four games this year when he was sacked five or more times. Now you might say, look, you know, correlation does not equal causation and things like that, and I understand. But pressure in Dak Prescott has been a recipe for a lot of teams facing the Dallas Cowboys this year.

Now we can talk about Frank Clark and the Seahawks pass rush. The Seahawks have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 42.7% of third downs this season. That is third most in this league. And to numbers from nfl matchup on espn frank clark has disrupted the pocket which is defined as a sack and interception a pass defended or a pass tipped on 2.6 percent of his snaps on pass in place that is fifth most in the league amongst defensive linemen and like i said here he got after prescott a couple times in that game he

did have the one sack. He was going up against Terran Smith, got a lot of speed rush moves to the outside that gave him some trouble. So if they can continue to pressure Prescott on Saturday night, Seattle can go down into Dallas and win this game. And if you remember back to yesterday's show, this was the one road team that I did pick. So there you go.

Let's get into the Sunday games now. What I'm watching for in that game between the Chargers and the Ravens, scrape exchange. What is that? Well, let me tell you. Look, we know that since they've made the switch to Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have gone to more of a zone read north-south style running game and the running backs a little east-west action with Lamar Jackson.

And now when you talk about the zone redesign, what you're basically talking about is a running play where quarterback meets the running back at the mesh point. They leave that defensive end unblocked. The quarterback reads him. If he crashes inside, the quarterback keeps the football and runs around the edge, runs around him. If he stays home, protects the edge, thinks

the quarterback is going to keep it, then he just gives it on the inside and they have the numbers to block everybody else. You basically block that re-defender, that defensive end, with the decision the quarterback makes at the mess point. Defensive coordinators getting wise to that started to realize that, look, don't let the quarterback make the decision. Make it for him, which is why you see something called the scrape exchange. That's when the defense and the defensive coordinator, they tell the defensive end, look, I don't care what you see. I don't care what you're thinking, what you're reading.

Crash down inside no matter what. Force the quarterback to keep the football, and then we're going to have what we call the exchange, where the linebacker flows to the edge. And basically what it does is they exchange their gap responsibilities. Usually you think the defensive end has taken the outside gap outside of the tackle or the tight end, and the linebacker is going to be taking those inside gaps. They flip their responsibilities.

Defensive end crashes inside. That linebacker scrapes to the outside. What that does is it creates a situation with the quarterback. He sees that defensive end crash. He keeps the football, goes around the end, and as a defense, you're hoping he runs right into that linebacker, scraping over. When these teams played a couple of weeks ago,

Lamar Jackson was held to just 39 yards on 13 rushing attempts. Now, the Ravens ran the football 35 times for 150 yards, almost as many yards as Lamar Jackson threw for. But they did a good job against Jackson. And actually, if you dig into those numbers, they held him to three yards or less on nine of his rushing attempts using this scrape exchange. Sometimes what they would do, they would bring a linebacker, I mean, excuse me, a safety, Adrian Phillips, down into the excuse me, a safety, Adrian

Phillips down into the box as an extra defender. And he would be the guy to work that exchange with the defensive ends. So watch for that. Can they contain the Baltimore run and attack? Can they slow that down? Do as good, if not a better job that they did in week 16. That's going to be something I'm watching in that game. Finally, when we get to, you know, that game on Sunday, Bears hosting a playoff game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Can they confuse Nick Foles at the point he makes decisions? And what I mean by that is this. You look at Foles and what he's done this year. On three of his interceptions,

the three interceptions he's thrown down the stretch, a combination of pressure and or something unexpected. It's led to a turnover. For example, one of the route concepts that Eagles love to run with Foles is something called pout. That's in the Patriots playbook, for example, or post and out. It's kind of a cover four beater where you have a post route from the outside receiver and an out route from the inside receiver. For example, in cover four, that basically gets played with man principles. And so the cornerback on the outside, he stays with that post route towards the middle of the field, meaning the safety now has to cover the out route, which is working away from

him towards the sideline. And it's usually an easy read or throw on that out route. Now, it works similarly against cover three. That outside corner, he has the deep outside, but he's going to hang on that post as long as he can to squeeze that a bit before he gets to the middle of the field safety, which usually opens up a little bit of space along the sideline to throw that out route. And they hit this for a big play against the Rams back in week 15, near the end of the first half. They came to it later, got cover three again, but this time Aqib Tlaib doesn't squeeze that post.

He peels off of it at the last second and jumps that out route just as Foles is making the decision. Foles thinks he has it, throws it right to Tlaib for an interception. Here's another one I'm talking about. Week 16 against the Houston Texans. They saw a lot of man coverage. That led to an easy throw on a fourth and two early in the game on a swing route. They had two slant routes from

the outside, swing to the running back. The slant routes create some traffic. He throws the swing to Darren Sproles. He beats the linebacker who fights through all that traffic. Foles gets it out quickly, a step or two ahead of the linebacker, and turns into a catch and run touchdown. Later in the game, they run slant flat, and he's trying to throw it to Sproles out of the linebacker and turns into a catch-and-run touchdown. Later in the game, they run slant flat, and he's trying to throw it to Sproles out of the backfield on the flat route. He thinks they're going to be in man coverage, but they stay zoned. That corner passes off the slant route, starts breaking downhill on the out route from the running back. Foles sees it, panics a little bit, gets flustered, gets pressured,

forces a throw to Zach Ertz, and it's intercepted. And so that's what I'm watching there. Can the Bears do enough of that? Can they do enough in the combination of pressure and different things schematically to confuse Foles? If they do that, the Bears are going to carry the day. So those are the things that I am going to be watching for when these wild card games kick off.

Remember, I will be back Sunday morning, breaking down Saturday, getting you ready for Sunday on Sunday Morning Tailgate. Up next, we're going to talk what to watch for when these AFC games kick off with an eye towards a potential opponent for the New England Patriots. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back

with you now on this Friday game day edition of the Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Friday game day edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. And got a couple of leftover questions which I didn't get a chance to fit into yesterday's Take Thursday show that I'm going to get to now. This one from Ian McDonald at Ian C-M-A-C-D-O-N-A-L-D on Twitter.

And he asks, what are some things to watch for in the Patriots' potential divisional round opponents, whether things that could give the Patriots problems or opportunities? So I'm going to give you something on each side of the ball for the three potential opponents. We're going to take the Colts and throw them out because there's no way the Patriots, if the Patriots end up playing the Colts in the divisional round, something horrible has happened. It's not possible.

So let's start with the Chargers, the five seed. I'm going to be watching two things with respect to the Chargers with an eye towards the divisional round if the Patriots end up playing them. How effective is Rivers against the Blitz? And can they get to Lamar Jackson when Jackson is a passer? Let's start with Rivers and the Blitz. I've talked about, I've written about how effective he has been against pressure and against Blitzes this year. His quarterback rating is either one or two. Him

and Matt Ryan have gone back and forth throughout the season. I haven't seen numbers for the entire season yet. Last I saw, Rivers was one, Ryan was two, but they've, like I said, flip-flopped throughout the year. Best quarterback rating this year against pressure, against blitzes. He loves to hand in the pocket. He loves to sit there, take the shot, wait to the last second, get the ball out of his hands, absorb the blow, but make a big play. Ravens can get after the quarterback, obviously. They sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times in one game this year,

and so they can bring the pressure. So in that sort of iron versus iron matchup, what gives? Do the Ravens struggle to get home? Does Rivers start to make some mistakes in the face of pressure? So that's one thing I'm going to watch. Phillip Rivers, his numbers against pressure and blitz situations with the Ravens. Other thing, basically the flip of that script.

Lamar Jackson, we know what he can do with his legs. We know what he can do as a runner. Can the Chargers get home? Can they get him to the ground when he's dropping back to throw? Ravens don't throw a ton. They average maybe 12 passing attempts a game. They don't throw it a ton. But when they do, can they get pressure on Jackson? That's going to be something I'm watching in that game. On the flip side, when the Ravens potentially come to Gillette, there are some things that have me concerned. There are some things that they might be able to exploit. That is the New England

Patriots. So when I'm watching that Chargers-Ravens game, here's what I'm looking for from Baltimore's perspective. First, can they be effective with their pressure? It's kind of the flip side of that coin we were just talking about with Phillip Rivers. Given Rivers and his ability to make plays against pressure, against blitzes, how effective is the Ravens' pass rush? How effective is the Ravens' pressure game? Because if they struggle, while Tom Brady has been not as good as he usually is against pressure this year, his numbers have gotten better throughout the season. He's moved in terms of quarterback rating. He's moved out of the bottom five.

And so I think that's a sign that maybe they're getting better. So if it does end up being the Baltimore Ravens coming to town, will they be able to sort of handle that pass rush? So I'm going to be watching that. And on offense, can the Baltimore Ravens be more than a one-dimensional offense? With the change to Lamar Jackson, they have become a run focused team. But when you get to the playoffs, it's sometimes hard to be one-dimensional as an offense and still be successful. You know what the Chargers are probably going to do.

They're going to crowd the box. We saw that back in week 16. So the Ravens, they still ran the ball pretty well. 35 times for 159 yards. Can they stop that run or do they let the Ravens be one-dimensional?

So that's what I'm going to be watching. Can the Baltimore Ravens be more than a one-dimensional team? Do they have to be more than a one-dimensional team? So that's what I'm going to be watching. Can the Baltimore Ravens be more than a one-dimensional team? Do they have to be more than a one-dimensional team? So that's what I'm watching. Because look, let's think about this. Let's spin this forward. Say the Ravens do come to Gillette next week. We all know what Bill Belichick does as a defensive mind.

He takes away what you do best. And so if they're allowed to be one-dimensional and they get past the Chargers, and let's say it is Baltimore that comes to town, Bill Belichick is going to do everything he can to stop that running game, and force Lamar Jackson to beat you from the pocket. And so that's what I want

to see from Baltimore. Finally, the Texans. When they have the football, I want to see balance and execution from their offense. Can they get it, or do they lack it? You know, we just went through some of the numbers with I want to see balance and execution from their offense. Can they get it or do they lack it? We just went through some of the numbers with DeAndre Hopkins and his target share, so I'm going to be curious to see if they spread the ball around a lot or if it's primarily the Watson and Hopkins show.

And on defense, opportunities to exploit them in the secondary. That is their weakness. That is their Achilles heel. Can Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton, those tight ends, can they make some plays in the downfield passing game? So that's what I'm going to be watching because I think if the Texans are the team that comes to New England, and judging by everything I've read around the Patriots, that seems to be the matchup that Patriots fans want. Okay, I'm there with you.

I think there are plays to be made against this secondary, so that's what I'm going to be watching there. Up next, we're going to talk about the Patriots and their philosophy headed into the postseason. That's ahead on this game day edition of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now. Going to quickly close out this Friday game day installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast

with one final question. It's a question I couldn't get to in yesterday's show and that comes to us from Mike Adriano Citi, number one. That's M-I-K-E-A-D-R I-A-N-O-S-D-E the number one. Curious if you think Pat's go early 2000 strategy with run game and solid secondary as cogs to victory in the playoffs.

And I think if you've watched the Patriots in the back half of this season, you would think that that's exactly the way that they're going to go. The emphasis on the run game. You know, running the ball a ton against teams like the Buffalo Bills, and yeah, the Bills had the number one pass defense, so you understand why they did that. But the run game did seem to be an emphasis at times, and the secondary has certainly played well. You could say that the addition of J.C. Jackson has made the secondary play perhaps even better.

Jackson has been able to do some things against guys like Juju Smith-Schuster, for example, you know, that have made the defense look a little bit better at times, particularly in the secondary. You look at the emphasis of the run game since the bye. 250 yards, 15 yards rushing against the Jets, 160 against the Vikings. There are two losses, 77 against the Dolphins, 96 against the Steelers, and then 273 against the Bills, 131 against the Jets. And so there has certainly been an emphasis on the ground game, and we've seen the secondary playing better. And so I think going into the playoffs, I think that will probably be the plan A,

at least on the offensive side of the ball. Let's see what we can do, get the ground game going. That still leaves them room for plan B, which just happens to be number 12, Tom Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time. If as an offense you could head into the playoffs thinking that Tom Brady might be your plan B, that's an interesting place to be. Now, I still think that, like we saw against the Jets at times,

with the effectiveness of the passing game, like we saw against Miami, there is still room for this to be a team that can throw the ball when they want to. Now, whether they're going to be effective at that kind of remains to be seen. If we see the offense in the passing game we saw against the Jets, yes. If we see the passing game we saw against the Bills, maybe not. But it is an interesting thing to think about. They're headed into a playoff run for the New England Patriots. We're going to see more of the run game than Tom Brady.

But it's probably not a surprise given what we've seen and how this year has come together. Even though Brady, you look at Tom Brady and what he's done in terms of his statistics, you know, he was league MVP last year. And when you look at his overall numbers, they're not wildly far off what he put up last year. know last year for example completed 66.3 percent of his passes this year 65.8 last year 32 touchdowns 800 interceptions this year 29 and 11 you know last year an adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.56 this year 7.26 and so i think part of the difficulty, it's not difficult, but part of the toughness of covering a Tom Brady is that we're used to such excellence that this year has felt like he's really, truly struggled. and yet the numbers are kind of almost in line with last year's MVP season. And so it's just been a strange year. And maybe part of that is the juxtaposition of Brady having that tough kind of stretch,

you know, the mistakes he made against the Steelers, the mistake at the end of the first half against the Miami Dolphins. Just the, you know, you put together what he's doing against guys like Patrick Mahomes and others, and you think, well, Brady's at the end of his career, the guys are playing better, but he's still putting up good numbers. It's been a weird year. But the real season begins this weekend. And like I said, I will be back Sunday morning breaking down what we saw on Saturday,

getting you ready for Sunday. We'll do a quick little show, and then I'll be back. I'll have a show later Sunday night sort of breaking down what we saw. And then we'll be into it. You know, tape Tuesday, we will start looking at the next opponent in the division round for the New England Patriots. So loaded weekend ahead. Enjoy the football, everybody.

I will be back on Sunday. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. you