Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 5, 2018 - The ESPN Story and Wild Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 5, 2018

Mark Schofield shares his one main takeaway from the ESPN story on the Patriots, and then dives into the weekend games.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tis but a tale of sound and fury signifying nothing. Mark Schofield here for Locked On Patriots on this January 5th, 2018, Friday, January 5th. I gotta admit, friends, look, I'm a little frustrated this morning. A little perturbed, so to speak, because my routine was disrupted and I don't like disruptions to the routine. I'm a man. I'm 41 now. That joke just doesn't sound the same when you say something other than I'm 40. But anyway, Thursday night, I'm getting ready. I'm sitting down. It's around 8 o'clock.

Bath is done. Kids are in bed. I'm getting ready to record today's episode of Locked On Patriots. My usual routine, I've got the show notes. I've got the outline. I've got all the stats I want to talk about. I'm getting ready to dive in. And I do one last thing, which is I check Twitter

because I do that before I record every show. Because I want to make sure that nothing crazy has broken in terms of news. Because I want to make sure that the loyal listeners to the Locked On Patriots podcast that get Patriots news, notes, and analysis five days a week, I want to make sure they get the most up-to-date coverage. So I hop on Twitter one last time, try to see what's going on. And then the news is breaking that

there's going to be a, quote, hit piece dropping on Belichick, Brady, Kraft, the trio, Egos, the potential breakup of the trio. It's going to be dropping from Seth Wickersham, who has done some good reporting in the past, had a story on the potential end of the Seahawks last year, which looks to be coming true right now. So I throw out my hands, I scrap my notes. I say, well, I guess I got to wait for this thing to come out because it's supposed to come out Friday morning at 8 a.m. So I go on with my life. I do some other things.

But before I go on with my life, I got to get ready here because I'm expecting your drama and fury and outrage. So I'm recording like soap opera intros. I even went so far. I went down an Alex Jones rabbit hole because I was identifying crazy Infowars type rants. I was going to rework a couple of them into Patriots themes. I was going to have a ton of fun stuff to do. To have some fun when the story came out.

So I get ready for bed. I set the alarm. I make sure I get up early. And I do. And I read the Wickersham story. And my initial reaction, I tweeted out was yawn. Now I'd invite you all to go read the Wickersham story. Okay. Go read it, go read it for yourself. You know, make up your own mind about it. But to me, the biggest sort of takeaway from that story isn't the, you know, further sort of dive into Brady's trainer and all of that, or fractures between, you know,

Belichick, Kraft, and Brady, rumors that Brady demanded that Garoppolo be traded, some of which have already been shot down by other Patriots beat writers the biggest nugget in there is one that I think validates a lot of what we've been talking about on this show and validates our friend Miguel Benzon over at Pat's

Cap because if you remember Miguel told us back in either, I think it was late September when he was on with us, that the Patriots couldn't afford to pay both Brady, his current contract, and Garoppolo what he was going to want.

And I remember Miguel basically saying, I want my quarterbacks to want to be the starter and Garoppolo's going to want that. And so we've been saying here for a while, Miguel's been saying it elsewhere, and other people have as well, that the numbers just simply would not work. There was no way to retain both guys.

One of them was going to have to take some sort of team-friendly structure to retain both of them. And in the Wickersham story, there's the nugget that the team was offering Garoppolo four-year extensions in the neighborhood of $17 to $18 million to begin that would escalate into bigger money once he fully replaced Brady and Brady retired.

And Garoppolo said no. Now, to me, strip away everything else. That's the biggest nugget in this entire story. Now, Garoppolo's agent, who happens to be Brady's agent, which is, I think, another sort of understated aspect to this entire saga, something Steph Stradley, who you should all be following, reminded me of on Twitter today. You know, you have two quarterbacks at the heart of this thing represented by the same agent. That, in addition to all the other things which we're going to get to, puts the Patriots

in a difficult sort of negotiating position. he denies that a formal offer was made. But you've got to believe that with Garoppolo's deal coming up for an extension or free agency, that there were some discussions about bringing him back. And could they do it? But Garoppolo said no. And a quarterback deal, let's say for 17 million per to begin with, that would drop him in line with what Sam Bradford and Alex Smith are getting right now.

Now granted, look, they're playing on older contracts. But you're talking about a deal that would, at its outset, pay Garoppolo more than roughly half the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. And then would escalate from there when he takes over from Brady. So it's a lot of money. It's a lot of money to invest in two quarterbacks because you'd be playing Garoppolo, $17-18 million a year,

and Tom Brady, $21 million a year. That's almost $40 million wrapped up in one position, one player of which will be sitting on the bench to start. So, again, it gets us back to the economics of this weren't feasible. You know, and what set all of this in motion was the fact that they were up against the end of Garoppolo's contract. They had to move one of these guys. They tried to get Garoppolo done on sort of a team friendly deal it couldn't happen so they

had to get a valuable return on somebody so they got what they could for Garoppolo and I've said it before you know teams have cap guys. They know where the Patriots were with respect to re-signing Garoppolo and keeping Brady under contract. They knew that they were facing a tough bargain in position. The Niners had the upper hand in the negotiations.

It's been a weird sort of extension of how the Garoppolo discussion has unfolded. Because back in the offseason, back in the summer, it was Patriots want first round. They want maybe two first round picks for Garoppolo. And everybody sort of laughed that off.

They said, oh, come on. Garoppolo's not worth anywhere near that. And now it's all the Patriots got fleeced in this deal getting a second rounder. So that sort of narrative shift has been interesting to watch. But for me, again, the biggest takeaway from all of this is they were trying to get Garoppolo redone on a team-friendly deal at the outset. Like our friend Miguel Benzon pointed out back in September, they couldn't get it done. They had to get a return on somebody. And here's sort of the interesting hypothetical to put out there.

What's the return on trade in Tom Brady how much do you think a 41 year old quarterback would really command in terms of getting you know draft picks back that's issue number one with moving Tom Brady issue number two pointed out to me by my friend and colleague Dave Archibald at Dave Archie on Twitter You trade Brady you sort of accelerate his dead cap his dead cap value If you trade him for next year is 14 million dollars alone, whereas for Garoppolo was 800,000 So if you decide to retain Garoppolo and trade Brady There's a question of a what value do you get in return? What are teams going to be willing to give up for?

Yes, the greatest quarterback of all time, but a guy that's going to be playing when he's 41 and who knows how long he can play at that level. And, B, you're doing something to your cap room by taking on $14 million in just dead money for the 2018 season. By moving Garoppolo, you save that cap value, you save that sort of cap space, and you can use that to address the quarterback position

and get ready for life after Brady yet again, which they've done, as I've pointed out, 16 drafts since Brady, they've drafted eight quarterbacks. They've always been trying to get ready for life after Brady. And this year, they're going to have to do it again. And now with some of the savings that they have by not trading Brady, you can put that money, allocate that money towards whether it's a free agent, bringing in a big time rookie, however you want to do it. And so again, I just think for me, that was the big takeaway, full of sound and fury, signifying really nothing. Are we surprised that three guys, three wildly successful men, three driven men who have achieved unimaginable success in their

chosen profession might come to heads at times, might have big egos, and they might get in the way of each other. We shouldn't be surprised by that. What we should be surprised by is that they've been able to do it together for 17 years now. So I don't think it's a big story at all. I really don't. And I know people out there disagree. I've been chatting with fans on Twitter this entire

morning, fans of other organizations who think that there's a lot more going on here. But for me, that's my takeaway. And maybe I am viewing it through, you know, the TB12 rose colored glasses, but I just think that there's not much here. So that's my take on it. Maybe I'm incredibly wrong. That's potential thing number one maybe i'm wrong maybe i'm reading it entirely wrong okay the other potential here is the patriots still need to figure out now that they've traded away garoppolo the next qb so they got to get it right otherwise we're looking at years of quarterback purgatory so that makes this offseason critical at the quarterback position,

which as a guy who evaluates quarterbacks for a living, gets paid to do it for a living, and has a Patriots podcast, kind of makes me excited. Because I'll get an entire offseason to talk about quarterbacks. Hallelujah. Praise Jesus. Where's the Tylenol?

Up next, we're going to talk about the wild card matchups. We're going to start with the Saturday games. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Okay, now let's dive into the wild card matchups for a little bit here. I want to talk about each game sort of in order. And what I'm really going to do is I'm just going to highlight one sort of matchup in each game to watch.

First, Wild Card Games kickoff Saturday afternoon. Titans at Chiefs. If you want to hear more on this and the debut of Patrick Mahomes if you're interested in that at all, I'd invite you to check out a podcast I did with the guys over at Locked On Chiefs.

You can check that out. You can go to at Locked On Chiefs on Twitter, check them out. I sat down with Ryan and Chris, talked about this game, talked about the debut of Holmes. Also have a piece over at LockedOnChiefs.com, breaking down my Holmes that includes a video that's up at the Inside the Pylon YouTube page. A lot of moving pieces over there. But for me, the matchup in this game is this. Kareem Hunt versus those Titans linebackers. Because the Titans run defenses.

One of the better run defenses in the league. This was something that really sort of surprised me. Diving into this game and diving into this potential matchup. When you look at the Titans' run defense, seventh in the league in DVOA as a run defense, but overall they're 24th. The pass defense isn't that great. And one of the subsets of that is the fact that

in terms of defending running backs out of the backfield, Titans are the worst in the league, at least in terms of DVOA. So I'd expect to see a lot of Kareem Hunt in the run game as a receiver. Now I'd expect Matt Nagy, Andy Reid to have all sorts of stuff dialed up to use Kareem Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield.

And then you're talking about putting pressure on Avery Williams and Wesley Woodyard to cover those guys, cover Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. And then you're talking about putting pressure on Avery Williams and Wesley Woodyard to cover those guys, cover Kareem Hunt out of the backfield. You know, the other option is, you know, do they use Ciprian, you know, a safety guy, do they use him on Kareem Hunt to try to neutralize him? Well, the problem there is then you've got to deal with Travis Kelsey. So I think that sort of matchup, how the Titans react to what Kareem Hunt can do out of the backfield, is sort of the key matchup to watch. You know, they've got West, too, as well, out of the backfield. They can do some things with him in the pass game. And so there's potential, I think, for the Chiefs to put up some big numbers,

relying on their running backs as receivers, stressing those tightens linebackers. Because when push comes to shove, you've got to believe that if you're Tennessee, you're going to roll with linebackers, cover, and hunt, because you're worried of what Kelsey might do. You don't want to leave linebackers cover and hunt because you're worried of what Kelsey might do. You don't want to leave linebackers on Kelsey. Or you decide, hey, look, we're going to play a lot more zone coverage. Okay, you can do that.

But Smith is a good enough quarterback to sort of sit back there and make some throws against zone coverage looks. And so I think, you know, that's the pivotal matchup, and I think it sort of sets up well for Kansas City. So Chiefs are favored by nine. I'm taking the Chiefs in that game. I think they win that game. Saturday night, Rams, Falcons. Rams the home team, NFC West champions.

Favored by six and a half points. And, you know, I'd plug the work by Aaron Freeman over at Locked On Falcons. He's done some great work this week getting Atlanta fans ready for this game. And for me, the matchup to watch is this. Center Alex Mack for the Falcons. Right guard Wes Schweitzer. And backup left guard Ben Garland, who's stepping in for the starting left tackle.

Left guard, excuse me. Who's out with a triceps injury. Those three guys against Aaron Donald. Donald, one of the premier players. Not just defenders, not just interior defensive linemen. I'm talking, he's, Aaron Donald, one of the premier players, not just defenders, not just interior defensive linemen. I'm talking, Aaron Donald is one of the premier players in the National Football League.

Can those three guys contain Aaron Donald? Because a lot of what Atlanta likes to do, Donald can disrupt quickly. You think about the past games, the play action stuff,

those boot action plays, you get quick interior pressure from Donald. He can stop those plays before they start. And it's the same with, think back to earlier in this season when I was getting ready,

when we were getting ready for Atlanta,New England, the Super Bowl rematch. What did I talk about that entire week? I talked about Atlanta's outside run game, that stretch zone running game. And critical to those types of plays is the ability of those interior defenders to get those reach blocks on defensive tackles, nose guards. When you're asking your center to get that reach block on a two technique, or you're asking, as is the case with Donald and how he's used in their 3-4 defense, as he's often used as a three technique head up on the guard,

or a four-eye technique where he's on the outside shoulder of the guard when you're asking the guards to make that reach block on donald near you know at the start of the play you know that's asking a lot you're asking him you know you're asking these guys to contain donald to make sure they execute those blocks otherwise he can do what he does so well which is you know penetrate into the backfield at the start of plays like that, force cuts in the backfield, and then the help arrives, or he makes the play himself. And I think that's the pivotal matchup. Andy Levitre, name just came to me, the left guard who's hurt for the Falcons. He's got a tricep injury. That's why Ben Garland's stepping in. And so that's the pivotal matchup to me.

And when push comes to shove, I think that Donald gets going. I think Donald has a big game. And what that means is it sets up nicely for Jared Goff, for Todd Gurley, for Sean McVay. Maybe they get some short fields, some good field position. means is it sets up nicely for Jared Goff, for Todd Gurley, for Sean McVay. Maybe they get some short fields, some good field position. And I think Rams favored by six and a half. Again, I'll give those points.

I think the Rams won that game. Coming up, we're going to dive into the Sunday games. That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield and Locked On Patriots. Okay, friends. Let's dive into those two Sunday games. We'll start with that Buffalo game at Jacksonville and, you know, more than anything, I want to plug our friends

over at Locked On Bills, Kevin Masseri, Nate Geary, the guys over there, Eric Turner, as well as Locked On Jaguars, Zach Goodall, Christopher Thornton. Great guys, all of them. I've been on with those guys before.

They do great shows. Check those out. You should give those a listen before this game kicks off on Sunday. Part of this starts with LaShawn McCoy's ankle. You know, the word coming out of Buffalo from some of the comments from McCoy himself is it doesn't seem like he's going to be anywhere close to 100%. You know, and his ability to cut, to move, to change direction quickly is such a core

component of his abilities as a runner. And if he's hampered in any way, I have a hard time picturing Buffalo going down and winning this game. But I do think, you know, and finally on McCoy, look, haven't heard about what happened at Friday's practice, today's practice yet, but yesterday, Thursday, he left, went back to the training room after team stretching. That's not a good sign. But in terms of the matchup I'm most interested in watching,

Jacksonville's run game against Buffalo's run D. Jacksonville's run game, kind of average, even with the addition of Fournette, which gets us into a whole how highly do you draft runbacks type thing, which is an interesting discussion to have,

but we don't have that time here. But this is a run game that's 15th in DVOA in terms of their ability to run the football, but they're going up against the 31st run defense in DVOA. If you're Buffalo, I think obviously you want to stop the run and put the game into Blake Bortles' hands. But can they do that? Will they have the ability to do that? So I'm not sure that they do that? Will they have the ability to do that? So I'm not sure that they do.

I'm not sure that they can slow down Fournette enough. If this is a game where, and we've talked a lot about first down running on this show, this entire season, and Jacksonville in terms of running the ball on first down, 13th in the league, averaging 4.1 yards per carry on first down. That's okay.

But if they're able to get that into the five range for this game, I think Jacksonville is going to be in a great position to win this football game. But if Buffalo is somehow able to limit that, limit that on first down, get them into second and long situations when you're asking Bortles to do more, Buffalo's got a puncher's chance in this one. For me, I don't think the Bills defense is going to be able to do that.

I think Jacksonville is going to go out, they're going to establish the run, they're going to get themselves into second and short, third and short type situations. When the entire playbook stays open, Bortles can then hit some of those shots downfield off play action. They can do some of the things that made Bortles one of the more impressive quarterbacks, at least for the month of December.

And so when I look at this, you look at the questions about Shady and his ankle, how this game sets up in terms of Jacksonville and I think their ability to establish the run. Jacksonville favored by nine. I'm giving those nine points. I'm taking the Jacksonville Jaguars. Week ends with perhaps the most interesting matchup.

That's the Saints and the Panthers meeting for the third time this season. Fascinating game. Shout out to my boy Bill Rossetti over at Locked On Panthers. Check him out. Check out that show as well. And this game comes down to one matchup. Carolina's receiving options versus the coverage guys for the Saints. Because as much as I like Cam Newton as a quarterback,

if there's one sort of area where he struggles at times, it's with precision ball placement. It's when he's asked to make sort of a tight window throw when there's good coverage on the play. There are times when he can, and there are times when the throw is a little bit off. And if you think maybe back to, say, last year or the year before, there were times when the Packers, for example, struggled. Part of it was when there were struggles with that Packers offense,

guys weren't separated and Rodgers was pressured and couldn't make precision, accurate throws. And that leads to stagnation as an offense because it's sort of a recipe for disaster. That's part of what we're seeing play out right now with Carolina. Receivers are struggling to get consistent separation, which means tighter throwing windows, which means, you know, sometimes when Newton doesn't deliver with pinpoint accuracy, like there are times when he doesn't, contested catch situations end up in incompletions

and you're walking off the field with your head down on third down and the team has to punt. Can they do things? Can they win routes? Can they scheme stuff to get better throwing windows? And over the last two weeks, we haven't seen Carolina's ability to do that. I'm curious to see if they do some stuff with Christian McCaffrey, if they do more to get him on those Texas routes, those choice routes,

working inside, outside, outside, inside, and then free up some space along the boundaries. But given what we've seen the past two weeks, I'm not sure that they can do it. Saints favored by six and a half. Again, I'm picking four favorites this week. And I think those are kind of consensus chalk type picks. I get it.

But I just think given the way these games sets up, these matchups set up, that's the way I'm rolling. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm right. Look, I've said it before. I'll say it again. I have no problem taking Ls. I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong.

You know, if you want evidence of that, you know, you can look at some columns I've written over at ITP where, you know, I reevaluate my draft grades on guys. I'm already working on my reevaluation of the 2016 quarterback class. Yeah, people will point to the fact that I might have nailed Jared Goff and I might have nailed Carson Wentz, but I don't care about that. They might point to the fact

that I nailed Christian Hackenberg. Again, don't care. I missed on Dak Prescott, I think. I missed on Connor Cook. I'm more interested in taking L's on that, not because it's fun to take L's, because I want to learn from that. So, again, if I'm wrong on these games,

feel free to yell me on Twitter about it, at Mark Schofield. You can always find me there. Been taking a lot of L's this week, thanks to my quarterback rankings. But that's the nature of the business, and that's why it's fun. Speaking of fun, I will be back Monday

recapping the wildcard stuff. We will know... We will know... Well, I guess we won't know until Sunday afternoon definitively who the Patriots will play next week. But we do know this. They will play next week, despite the

Seth Wickersham piece. Again, I would invite you to go read it and make your own conclusions. Again, tell me if I'm wrong. Despite everything that was written in Seth's piece, the Patriots will play a game next Saturday night, and we will start getting ready for that come Monday. Until then, have a great weekend.

Enjoy the games and keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.