Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots January 7, 2018 - Tape Tuesday

Episode Date: January 8, 2019

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey there everybody, welcome on into a Tape Tuesday installment of the Locked On Patriots Podcast. Mark Schofield back in the big chair here for a Tuesday, January 8th, 2019. Hope you didn't stay up too late watching the National Championship game. At some point, I'll probably dive into what we saw between Alabama and Clemson, but that won't be today because look, we've got bigger and better things to get onto. That is, of course, the New England Patriots set to kick off their postseason this Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers. As I said,

we're going to break Tape Tuesday up into two shows this week. A show today on the Chargers. As I said, we're going to break tape Tuesday up into two shows this week. A show today on the Chargers offense. We're going to look at their pass game. More specifically, a bit of a narrative buster, at least from where I'm sitting. Then we're going to look at their running game, some of the things that they do well in the run game, some things to watch for, two keys that I have for the Patriots defense. A little bit later, we're actually going to do some nerdy stuff and not even truly X's and O's nerdy stuff. We're going to go outside the realm of football for a moment before we bring it back in. More on that in a little bit.

But before we do anything, a reminder to follow me on Twitter. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites, friends. Avalon said that if there is a website that is covering the game of football that we all love, chances are I'm doing some work for them. Let's get into the Chargers passing game. And if you've listened to me over the past week or so, if you've read any of my work this year, whether it's at the school or Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio or anywhere, you've probably heard me talk about how well Philip Rivers has performed against pressure. What's fascinating about the work that I do is that there are times that even my own narratives have to be reworked or changed

because of diving into the film. And by the way, I guess I should admit it. Look, I was 0 for 4 on wildcard round picks. So basically, you could take everything that I say on the show and just throw it out the window. My parents haven't talked to me since the last game ended. I think they're a little upset with my picks. So I just had to work that in there and take a massive loss on that one. But bringing it back to Phillip Rivers, I was prepared to sort of dive into their passing game over the past couple of weeks, see how they've been performing, and have some great things on what they do schematically,

some play designs to watch for, some things that Rivers does against pressure that we need to be aware of. And I've still got a little bit of that. But I think the narrative needs to be revisited when you look at recent production from this passing game. Now, they had that huge win against Kansas City back in week 16. Or 15, excuse me. They had that huge win against Kansas City that Thursday night. Phillip Rivers in that game, though, he completed 26 of 38, and that's 68% of his throws for 313 yards. Pretty good.

Two touchdowns, two interceptions. Got sacked five times. The next week against Baltimore, that game that they lost, that Saturday nighter, completed 23 of 37, 62% completion rating for just 181 yards. So just 4.89 yards per attempt and 2.46 adjusted yards per attempt. No touchdowns, two inter interceptions four sacks their season finale against denver a game that they won 14 of 24 58.33 percent completion rated percentage excuse me 176 yards passing one touchdown two interceptions yards per attempt of

7.33 adjusted yards per attempt of 4.42 just a few days ago against baltimore and yes they traveled east they won 22 of 33 68.7 completion rating 166 160 yards excuse me no touchdown, no interceptions, one sack, yards per attempt of 5.0, and an adjusted yards per attempt of 5.0. So in their last four games, three touchdowns, six picks, ten sacks. If those were the numbers Tom Brady were putting up right now, I think Patriots fans might be more concerned than they are right now. And just by juxtaposition, let's look at Brady's last four games. And in that stretch of time, he has nine touchdowns, three interceptions. And he's coming off a game against the Jets where it might have been his best game of the season.

Four touchdowns, no picks. So I just wanted to throw that out there. And I kind of got the idea to do this from Matt Chatham. Obviously does great work for the Athletic and other places. He sort of put those Rivers numbers out there on Twitter. So I wanted to take a look at that. I think it's important to put that sort of into context. Let's look a little bit at their passing game. There are a couple of things that I want to talk about. I mentioned sort of some passing designs, some route designs that I

thought I'd be able to sort of talk about. I expected to sort of go in and really focus on their designs. But when I looked at the tape from these last four games they've played, there are some pressure things that I think merit more discussion. But in terms of some passing designs that they turn to that we should look for, shallow crossers, again, it's something that they love to do a couple of different ways. They will go four verticals, but bring the running back underneath on that shallow crosser, basically use the verticals to clear out and then come back underneath with the running back on a shallow crosser. That's one way they like to do it.

Another way they like to do it, they will run kind of a variation of the drive concept where they will have the tight end run sort of a curl. Sometimes Antonio Gates, maybe it'll be Hunter Henry. He was just activated, so that's going to be something to watch. Sometimes it's green, but they have the tight end run a curl, and the receiver outside of him run a dig over the top. So the linebackers kind of get sucked up on that curl.

If you get zone coverage, you're going to have the safeties having to work downhill against that. If you get man coverage, you might might get especially if they do it with tight end and then the outside receiver so it's just a two receiver set to that side you might get that corner using outside leverage then you get that wide receiver working inside on the dig using the inside leverage advantage that he has so that's one thing that they like to do as well so shallow shallow crossers are one thing and if you've listened to the show if you follow the patriots you know that there were times especially early in this season when shallow crossers are one thing. And if you've listened to the show, if you follow the Patriots, you know that there were times, especially early in this season, when shallow

crossers kind of destroyed them. So that's something to watch. Why option? I can't tell you how many times in watching this team over the past four weeks, I don't know how he does it at this age. I don't know how he does it. And look, I think he'd be the first to tell you that he's not the most fleet of foot tight end left. Antonio Gates sometimes looks slow, sometimes looks labored, but he's still getting open on those wide option designs. He had one against Ron Parker, safety for the Chiefs, where I had to rewind it five times. Like, how is this dude getting that open?

He's like lumbering off the line of scrimmage. Then he just dusts Parker. Maybe he's just like trolling guys you know it's kind of like you know what's that movie the color of money when you're going out to play pool you take a dive the first couple games and you say all right let's play for some real money and then you start making every shot he's just hustling dudes maybe i don't know why option is going to be something to watch whether it's hunter henry whether it watch, whether it's Hunter Henry, whether it's Gates, whether it's Green. They like to do a lot of Y option stuff. And Gates, at his age and what he's got left in the tank, still getting open. Vertical concepts, they would

do some vertical stuff. I mentioned four verts. They will go slot fit as well. They like some stuff in the vertical game. And so those are going to be things to watch but what i really want to spend a few minutes talking about is pressure and this was a bit of a narrative buster to me because looking at rivers over the past couple of weeks a couple of things stood out one he hate he made a number of throws in the downfield passing game mainly that were severely underthrown that led to either interceptions or incompletions or missed opportunities in the passing game. Why? Most of the time it was because of pressure. There are two things that I think the Patriots need to roll out on Sunday. Mug looks, but particularly the

Baltimore Ravens over the past couple of weeks, they did a ton with showing you that sugared A gap where you've got both linebackers down showing pressure. You don't know where it's of Ravens over the past couple of weeks, they did a ton with showing you that sugared A gap where you've got both linebackers down, showing pressure. You don't know where it's going to come from, particularly that regular season game. They sort of showed that a ton. You don't know who's coming or going. There was an interception that he threw due to that. They had two verticals. It was one of their earlier plays in the game, and it was underthrown. A pressure look again on a second and 16 in the third quarter. One linebacker comes, the other doesn't. They have a twist inside from that mug look with the linebacker and a defensive tackle over the center and the right guard. That leaves you a one-on-one,

and the right tackle gets beat, and he gets home for the sack. Fourth quarter against Baltimore in the regular season. This was a second and six play at the 945 mark of that game. They go mug look again. 48th linebacker who's coming through the A-gap, he beats number 28, Melvin Gordon, in pass protection. That's another thing that I noticed. Their running backs, whether it's Justin Jackson, Melvin Gordon, there are times that they struggle in pass protection. So in addition to these mug pressure looks where you're showing both linebackers in the A-gap and then sending one or both or even dropping both, you've got to attack those running backs. Make them pick up blitzes because there have been times over the past couple of weeks

those two guys, Jackson and Gordon, have gotten beat, whether power moves, speed moves, a combination of the two, and given up some sacks. So that's certainly something to watch. Another thing to watch when it comes to the Patriots getting some pressure, I want to see Trey Flowers over, and it pains me to say this, my brother from another mother, Michael Schofield, who's slid inside to the right guard spot for them this year. There have been times when he has gotten beaten and beaten badly in pass protection. And maybe it's part of the adjustment plan inside now where he's been a tackle for most of his life,

but he has struggled at pass protection at times. So I want to see the Patriots use a couple of looks up front where they get Flowers on him, kick him inside a bit, whether it's a four-man front and they've got, you know, Wise or perhaps Rivers or Davis or somebody or Claiborne outside of him, or whether they go that amoeba look and instead of having him head up on the center, kick him over to the right guard. I want to see that kind of look. So those are the two areas where I think the Patriots can make some hay, getting pressure on this Chargers passing game, getting pressure on Rivers,

because he's been throwing some interceptions over the past couple of weeks, usually when pressured, and the ways to get pressure on them, I think, are threefold. One, those mug looks. Two, attack those running backs. Make them pick up rushers. Make them pick up blitzes. Make them stay in and protect Phillip Rivers. Attack them with the pressure game.

And finally, attack Michael Schofield, that right guard. Get after him when he has to protect Phillip Rivers. I think that will lead to some turnovers and mistakes from their quarterback. Up next, we're going to talk the Chargers run game. And a little bit later, going to go outside the football room for a minute. You'll see where we're going with this. I think we're going to have some fun. But first, friends, look, we are into the playoffs now.

We get the divisional round weekend, arguably the best weekend of the football year, and it's time to get in on the action with my bookie. Don't be that person with no root and interest as your relatives or friends sit around watching the game or everybody down at the bar is rooting for their team wearing that jersey. Not this year with Super Bowl 53 just around the corner.

Make sure you're ready for the daily action by signing up at MyBookie today. They pay fast when you win, ownership really cares about good customer service, and they offer the craziest props. Where you bet is just as important as who you're betting on. And if you want to make money during playoff season, you've got to go to MyBookie. I trust them, but you don't have to take my word for it. Just check them out yourself. Join now and MyBookie will offer you a 50% deposit bonus to make sure you have a nice bankroll

for the rest of the season. Use promo code LOCKEDON when you deposit to activate the offer. That's promo code LOCKEDON. At MyBookie, you play, you win, you get paid. Mark Schofield back with you now on this taped Tuesday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast. And let's talk the Chargers run game now because what's been fascinating over the past couple of days, particularly in the wake of that Seattle Seahawks game where they really wanted to establish the run and they failed to do so. They got away from Russell Wilson who had a fantastic game throwing the football.

The run game, establishing the run and all that kind of stuff has sort of become maybe a point of contention, at least sort of in the football world, particularly between what we call sort of the analytical niche or segment of football Twitter and more of the old school film segment of football Twitter. There's sort of this ongoing struggle between the two. And as somebody that sort of leads more towards the film side, I can certainly now see where those people are coming from when you see that Seattle Seahawks game and how that sort of played out. And I do want to recommend a quick piece. I tweeted it out yesterday.

Natalie Wiener over at SB Nation wrote this great piece. She's a member of Seahawks Twitter. She's a Seahawks fan, but she sort of ranked the Seahawks games this year from worst to best in terms of how they established the run or established things. Using quotes there for those of you watching on News Channel 8, it's kind of a tongue-in-cheek piece. It was kind of funny, really well done. It's a quick read. I would definitely recommend that. But let's look at the Chargers now because if you're one of those people that sort of says,

oh, you've got to really sort of establish the run to have success in the National Football League, there are some games this year where you could point to to bolster your case for that proposition. And if you're somebody that says the run game doesn't matter, when you look at the Chargers, there are also some games where you could point to to bolster your case for that proposition. And if you're somebody that says the run game doesn't matter, when you look at the Chargers, there are also some games where you could say, look, this fits my narrative. For example, back in week six,

the Chargers beat the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland 38-14. They ran for 246 yards that day. They had more yards on the ground than Phillip Rivers had passing. The following week, they beat the Titans 20-19. That game in London where the Titans decided to go for two at the end in the win, they had 47 rushing yards in that game. So there you go. If you're that, we've got to establish the run,

you've got to win to bolster your opinion. If you're of the mind that running doesn't matter, you've got to win to bolster your opinion. Now, let's sort of flip the script a bit. In week three, when they lost at the Rams, at the Rams' crosstown rivals, they ran for 141 yards and lost. But in week 16 against the Ravens, they were in for 51 yards and lost. So you've got sort of anything you can pick from from this Chargers season to sort of fit your narrative that run game matters, run game doesn't.

We'll see how they approach it this week in New England. But I do want to talk for a couple of things about this Chargers run game specifically. It's going to be a mixture of power and zone, and it doesn't matter who is on the field, whether it's Eckler, Jackson, Gordon. We do have to watch the sort of Gordon knee injury situation, but they will use zone stuff with all of these guys, power gap stuff with all of these guys. So if you're thinking, oh, it's Gordon, you're going to see outside zone. While you might see that, it's not specific to one or the other.

So that's one thing to remember here. They don't really give too much away in terms of tendencies depending on who's on the field. There is a bit of a mirror image here between the Patriots and the Chargers. They will do some 21 personnel, I-formation stuff with a fullback. They've got Derek Watt on the roster. They've got a fullback there. That also might sort of help them in terms of scout team stuff,

scout team prep for New England, what they do with James Devlin. But they will do some I-formation stuff. They will do some fullback lead stuff. They will do some power stuff with him. So that's going to be something to watch. The main thing I think you need to watch when it comes to their running game is how they involve the wide receivers, Travis Benjamin and Mike Williams in particular.

They do a lot with ender rounds. They do a lot with jet sweeps. They do some stuff in the reverse game. And that leads us to the two main points I want to make when it comes to the New England Patriots defense going up against this ground game. Backside defenders have to be smart, stay home, and keep contained. Two reasons for this. One, what I was just talking about, that wide receiver run game stuff. You will see plays flow away from you if you are that backside defensive end. If you are that backside force player in the run game,

you will see stuff work away from you. Stay home. You might see a reverse come your way. You might see an end around come your way. You might see a jet sweep come your way. You've got to be disciplined. Do your job. That's the first reason.

The second reason, a lot of their zone game stuff, when the run game, their running backs love to hit those backside cutbacks. They love to make that sort of bend read where you're working sort of strong side to the right, but then you cut it back to the left. You get those backside players either on the ground or to flow violently in the direction of the run action, and you hit that cutback on them. So backside force players, edge defenders, defensive ends, you've got to be active with your eyes, active with your hands. You see those cut blocks, use the hands to work off of them. Discipline with your eyes. Don't get sucked in. Stay home because they will hit you with some

stuff, whether via cutback or end aroundaround jet sweep, reverse, the like. They've gotten some big plays as a running game on those designs. The Patriots need to be ready for them. Up next, we're going to close out the show with some super, super, super nerdy stuff. Not really of the on-the-field X's and O's football variety. A new little approach here for Divisional Round Weekend. And's ahead on this Tape Tuesday installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Sofio back with you now to close out this Tape Tuesday installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast. And we're going to go in a little bit of a non-football nerdy direction

for a second. And those of you that may have followed me on Twitter for a while before I even started this show, or have followed me on Twitter or the work, podcast, whatever, you know that I don't want to go full on and say that I'm a bit of a renaissance man, but I do have some odd little hobbies and things that i get into for example a couple of summers ago i built a ton of outdoor furniture by hand i've got an outdoor dining set two benches and a table that i put together oak all from you know based not raw wood but like you buy these huge boards and you get a saw and you cut it to order and stuff like that. I'm doing all the woodworking myself. I've made my own sausage, cured my own meat.

So I've got obviously the garden, you know, the total Africa. I mean, I dabble into some weird things outside of football and outside of video games and things like that. One of the things that I get into, particularly during the winter, is weather. I'm a member of American Weather, AmericanWX.com, which is a nerdy weather message board. Lots of professional and amateur meteorologists on there. 99% of the stuff is well over my head, but I follow along, particularly when storms are coming. I mean, I remember in Snowmageddon here in the D.C. area back years ago, I remember everybody over there, the men and women that were following that storm, tracking it from weeks ahead of time, you know, looking at the long range GFS and the Euro and the NAM and all that sort of commuter modeling. I remember tracking that storm as it was coming in. I bring this up because when I woke up this morning, I checked Twitter and checked

Locked on Patriots Slack channel. There was a lot of discussion about the weather. So I figured the first thing I would do is see what everybody over at American WX is saying, you know, in that New England forum. And I will tell you that when it looks to be in the range of this game on Sunday, there was a lot of pessimism about a potential snowstorm and precipitation event that seems to be trending up. And when I say up, people on these boards, they like snow, they like weather events. And so everybody seems to be more of a good mood when there's a weather event coming. And so as I'm recording the show, they're talking about the most recent runs of models. And you're seeing, for example, some weather working up the coast, a system, a potential, potential nor'easter type event

working into the New England area, the southern New England area into Sunday. Now I'm looking at some GFS, which is an American model, and it's showing maybe half an inch of precipitation, more of the rain than snow variety right now. That's one model. There's another model that's showing more snow working into New England on Sunday. So there is a potential for this to be a cold snow type event. Why might that be important? Well, the Los Angeles Chargers, perhaps they're not built for a rainy precipitation filled snow type event. So that got me thinking. And I started digging around to find some numbers on this. And I found an article over at Numberfire of all places and this is a bit dated it's from 2015 but it looked at quarterback ratings for quarterbacks in regular

non-weather games versus weather games and they defined weather games as 40 degrees or less with some kind of precipitation and again this was from 2005. Tom Brady's quarterback rating in normal weather, 95.05. His quarterback rating in bad weather, again, 40 degrees or less, some kind of precipitation, 92.68. So a difference of just minus 2.37. Not a huge change. Phillip Rivers, and again, this is an older article from 2015, 95.11 in normal weather. In those bad weather games, again, 40 degrees or less, some precipitation, 80.8, a difference of negative 14.31. So you see a drop off there with Rivers.

Now again, some outmoded data, some bit of outdated stuff there. So I dug into it a little more. And I couldn't believe when I found this. And then when I found it, it kind of makes sense. If you go to profootballreference.com, under their sort of play finder, where is it? Why did that just disappear on me? Your season finder, your team game finder, that's where it is. You can actually search for games from a certain team based on temperature at game time. So I did that. Again, this doesn't get you into precipitation, but it gets you into the temperature range. So I did that for the Chargers in the Phillip Rivers era. And again, that's when he took over as a starter in 2005. That's how I'm sort of defining it there.

And there are 19 games during this stretch where the Chargers played a game, again, with that game time temperature, 40 degrees or less. There are some postseason games in here as well obviously most notably that game against the new england patriots that's one we remember that afc championship game that is in there we'll talk about that in a minute but there's also let's see a playoff game against pittsburgh and i believe a playoff game against Pittsburgh and I believe a playoff game against Kansas City or that's a week 17 game. So I think maybe there's just the two

playoff games. I will tease this question to the outset. During this stretch I also talked about this on the Locked On Patriot Slack channel. From 2005 to the present all these games played in that sort of cold weather.

Again, no precipitation on these games, just 40 degrees or less at game time. Three players attempted passes for the Chargers. Rivers was the only quarterback. There were two others. I'll tease that. Maybe you can think of the name or names. I'll tell you that in a little minute but you look at rivers and his numbers during these 19 games in which the chargers 111 lost eight rivers was 388 for 635 so he completed 388 passes on 635 attempts for

4630 yards 30 touchdowns 19 interceptions for a quarterback rating of 86.6. On his career, here's a quarterback rating of 95.6. So you do see a drop off there. Now, obviously, that quarterback rating overall does have some of these games factored in. So there's that. So the disparity is probably a little bit even more. I just didn't get a chance to sort of dive into that and get super, super nerd and take all that stuff and extract that.

Somebody smarter than me with numbers could probably do that. And there are some good games in here from Rivers. His best game comes to us from 2009. He had two very good games in 2009 in cold weather. One was a Week 13 game at Cleveland. The temperature's 34 degrees. And he completed 19 of 26 for 386, two touchdowns, no interception for a quarterback rated of 140.7.

Also in 2009 in week 16 against the Titans at Tennessee, 21 of 28 for 259, two touchdowns, no picks, quarterback rated of 126.9, game time temperature of 33 degrees. The third best game he's had was also the second coldest game Phillip Rivers has played in. That was week 12, 2013 at Kansas City, game time temp of 24 degrees. And a game that the Chargers won 41-38. He goes 27 of 39 for 387. Three touchdowns. No picks. Quarterback rated of

126.8. The coldest game that Phillip Rivers has ever played in. That AFC Championship game in the 2007 season at New England, game time temperature of just 23 degrees. Rivers, 19 of 37 for 207, no touchdowns, two picks. Two big caveats to that game. One, he was playing on a torn ACL.

Two, a Damian Tomlinson missed that game with his toe injury. And speaking of LDT, let's end it with this little note. I said that there were two other players other than Rivers that attempted passes in cold weather games during this stretch. LDT was one. LDT, one for two, for one yard, just one yard and a touchdown. The other, and if you figured out this name, if you knew the name that I was about to drop, A, thanks for listening to the show and for being a member of the Locked On Patriots Slack channel,

or B, you're a football savant, and I commend you on that. But the other player who attempted a pass during these cold-weather games with the Chargers during this run of time with Phillip Rivers as their starting quarterback, Legadoo Nane, a wide receiver, who in a game in 2009 completed one pass for 21 yards so listen if you want to drop some knowledge on people if you want a trivia question when this game kicks off and it's cold and it's rainy there you go the three players to attempt passes for the chargers since 2005 in games where the game time temp was 40 degrees or less a dam Damian Tomlinson, Phillip Rivers, and Legadoo

Nane. Just please let your friends know when you win that bet or drop that knowledge on them where you heard it. That will do it for today. I will be back tomorrow looking at the Chargers defense. A little bit later this week we'll have some crossover action. We'll do

some Take Thursday stuff. Might even get a guest for Take Thursday. Going to be a loaded show, series of shows this week. Excited for it. And obviously, it all builds up to Sunday when these Chargers and Patriots face off. Until next time, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. Thank you.