Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots July 18, 2018 - Le'Veon Bell, AFC West Over Unders, and the 2011 Draft Revisited

Episode Date: July 18, 2018

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Good morning everybody, welcome into Lockdown Patriots for Wednesday, July 18th, 2018. Mark Schofield back in the big chair, reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. You can check out the work over at InsideThePylon.com, my game script part two, that piece is up today over at ITP. You can check that out again, InsideThePylon.com, where I'm one of the lead writers over there. That piece today, breaking down some run game stuff, some play action stuff, so check that out over at ITP. Also, check out the work at MattWaldmanRSP.com,

Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Got a piece which I talked about yesterday on Mitchell Trubisky. You can check that out. Also, my first piece up over at bigblueview.com, SB Nation's New York Giants site. Five throws that might make you a believer in Eli Manning this year, along with one that, well, if you see that kind of throw, maybe the Dodgers will be right about Eli in the 2018 season.

Loaded show for you today. We're going to get into the AFC West over-unders. We're going to talk the 2011 Patriots draft. But of course, the big news yesterday. I alluded to it near the end of yesterday's show. Le'Veon Bell decision day, the 4 p.m. deadline to either reach a deal or tag players potentially facing the franchise tag. And that 4 p.m. deadline came and went. Shortly after 4 o'clock, Le'Veon Bell with a tweet.

To all my Steeler fans, my desire has always been to retire a stealer both sides worked extremely hard today to make that happen but the NFL is a hard business at times to the fans that had hope I'm sorry we let you down but trust me 2018 will be my best season to date and as Bell says the two parties did try to make a deal happen reportedly reportedly Le'Veon Bell turned down a monstrous, we'll get into why it's not exactly monstrous, $70 million deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was $70 million over five years, roughly $14 million per season. And that offer would have given Le'Veon Bell the largest multi-year contract of any running back in the NFL. But he turned it down, and he turned it down for a couple of reasons.

One, apparently it's nowhere near his asking price, which is reported to be somewhere in the $17 million per season range. But the other reason, and this sort of can tie us to my thoughts on Robert Gronkowski. The other reason Bell might have turned down this deal, it wasn't really loaded with a ton of guaranteed money. According to Ian Rappaport, we talked about yesterday, the contract included $33 million in guaranteed dollars, which was going to be paid out over the first two years. The first three years of the deal would pay about $45 million, working out to about

$15 million per season. Unsure if that was guaranteed. And it also seems that as for the final two years of that deal, none of the money was guaranteed, giving the Steelers a big out if, as some people expect, Bell starts to tail off as you get into his, you know, late 20s here. You know, we're, you know, this is a sport where running backs, there is sort of a shelf life to them. DeMarco Murray just retired. You know, running backs, Frank Gore is the exception, not the rule here. Running backs often struggle to, you know, be as solid and as stout and as productive as they get into their late 20s, early 30s. And that's probably where the Steelers sort of started to draw that line. It sort of pays out in how this contract offer was apparently structured.

Obviously, our good friend Tony Serino over at Locked On Steelers was all over this on his show yesterday. And here's some of what he had to say. Hey everybody, it's Tony Serino from Locked On Steelers. And the deadline to reach an extension with players under the franchise tag came and went on Monday afternoon. And the Pittsburgh Steelers and Le'Veon Bell were unable to get a long-term deal done. And that likely means now that Le'Veon Bell will be playing 2018 as his last year as a Pittsburgh Steeler. It is a sad day in Pittsburgh.

It likely means the end of the Killer Bee era, the end of the Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh. So much hype, so much excitement about that offense. And to this point, they only have two playoff wins to their names and really a very disappointing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars a season ago. If this team doesn't win a Super Bowl in 2018, it will go down as quite the failure of offensive talent or quite the failure to capitalize on such offensive talent.

The Super Bowl window in Pittsburgh certainly closing a little bit now that Le'Veon Bell is going to be leaving after this season. You have to wonder if that's going to be a burden on this team, if the burden of knowing that Le'Veon Bell will be leaving weighs on this team at all in 2018 as they try to make another push towards a Lombardi trophy. If you are a fan of another team and you are hoping to get Le'Veon Bell during the 2019 offseason, well, you know, be ready to pay a hefty price tag for Le'Veon Bell. It was reported that the last contract offer to Le'Veon Bell was five years, $70 million,

with $33 million of that in guarantee. That was $14 million per season, and Le'Veon Bell turned that contract down. He will likely be looking for in the range of $15, $16, maybe even $17 million a season. Again, he wants to reset the running back market back to where it was when Adrian Peterson got his big deal back in 2011. And he has said before that he wants to be paid not just as the best running back, but as a great wide receiver as well. So again, if your team is looking for a running back and has that kind of cap space, he will be available in March of 2019.

If you want to hear more about this Le'Veon Bell situation, you can search on iTunes, Stitcher, wherever you find podcasts. Search for Locked On Steelers. You can find me there. Otherwise, head over to LockedOnSteelers.com. You can find the podcast there. Give it a listen.

Thank you very much. So there you have it from Tony Serino, the host of Locked On Steelers. You can follow him at Steeler Country on Twitter. And that's the great thing about the Locked On Podcast Network is when something like this breaks, you can go right to the source and get sort of the insight from them and great insight there from Tony. And just to piggyback off of that, get you back into the mindset of Mark Schofield

and how he handles his summer days. I was at the gym yesterday afternoon and this morning. There's a guy there that I see every day, huge Steelers fan, talk to him all the time about football. And he knows I'm a Pats fan. He knows I'm a Pats guy, knows I'm hosting the show. And he kept telling me, you know, both yesterday and today, my fear, man, his fear is that Bill Belichick is going to break the bank, go after Le'Veon Bell. And is that not a Belichick move to sort of weaken a competitor like that, to go after Le'Veon Bell? Now, that would sort of also fly in the face of a lot of how Belichick

handles the running back position. We just saw them not pay Deion Lewis, so I would be surprised that they sign Le'Veon Bell. But would it surprise me to see the Patriots at least make a couple of offers, maybe drive up the price somewhat? That wouldn't surprise me at all. And that's what I told my boy at the gym. I'm sure they're going to kick the tires on it next year when he's a free agent. And so Le'Veon Bell is betting on himself. Now, the risk here is, does he get through the season? That's obviously something that he has to consider and a concern that he

has to weigh. But Bell's decided, his people have decided, look, I'm going to bet on myself. I'm going to do a little Rod Tidwell action, play out the contract, enter free agency, and see if he can cash in. All the best to him. So that's a look at the big Le'Veon Bell story. Again, follow Tony Sereno, the host of Locked On Steelers, at Steelercountry on Twitter. Up next, we're going to get into AFC over-unders now,

kicking it off with the AFC West. And a little later, a look at the 2011 Patriots draft. But first, I want to let listeners to the Locked On Patriots podcast know that this episode is brought to you by Core Essentials. That's K-O-R-E Essentials, who make the best belt you will ever own. What makes their track belts so awesome over at Core Essentials? No belt holes. That's right. Instead, their belts use a hidden track in the back of the belt with over 40 size points to choose from.

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And doing some AFC over-unders now. We've worked our way through the NFC. Time to hit the AFC. We're going to kick it off in the AFC West. Which, if you're looking at storylines just by division, this might be one of the more fascinating divisions to look at. You've got Patrick Mahomes taking over for Alex Smith in Kansas City. You've got Case Keenum coming over,

hopefully to finally solidify that Broncos quarterback position, which needs a little bit of solidifying. You've got Oakland, John Gruden back. Sometimes some of the decisions he's made, some of the draft picks, some of the free agent signing, maybe he's thinking it's 2008, not 2018. But can Gruden assemble enough Gruden grinders to get the Raiders back to the playoffs? And finally, the Chargers. Is this finally the time when Phillip Rivers and company in what might be a weaker division make that run. And Vegas probably thinks so. You look at the over-unders in this division in terms of win totals,

none of these teams have a win over-under over 10. The team that Vegas likes the most, those Chargers, at 9.5 in terms of their win total. And when you look at how teams are stacking up in this division, the questions that teams are facing in this division right now, Chargers don't have that many. We've talked a ton about their defense on this show. Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa, the way they get pass rush off people. You look at that secondary and, you know, obviously Hayward is one of the better cornerbacks in the league.

Casey Hayward, they add Derwin James to that group. You know, Perrin Hayward, who's one of the better corners across from Jason Verrett, who was a first-round pick. This looks to be a solid defense. And when you look at this offense now, Melvin Gordon, great running back in this league. Phillip Rivers still getting it done. They could win some games. So when I look at that 9.5,

I'm going to take the over. I'm buying in on the Chargers. And I know other people are doing it. I'm buying in too the Chargers, and I know other people are doing it. I'm buying in too. Let's look at the rest of this division now. We'll start with the Denver Broncos. This is a team that, well, a team that believes they figured out the quarterback position after the end days of Peyton Manning into the Brock Oswe, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, none of that seemed to stick. Now they sign Case Keenum.

I think it's a situation that solidified that quarterback position, at least for the next couple of seasons. I know Paxton Lynch is still there. Maybe he's finally put it together. A team that won five games last year looking to get past seven. That's their over under right now. And here's why I think they're going to hit that. A couple of reasons. First, this is a team that's facing one of the easier schedules, at least in terms of last year's win loss record. Only the Raiders, the Bengals, the Titans, and the Texans face easier schedules,

at least according to strength of schedule as we sit here in July. That's issue number one. Issue number two, with the addition of Case Keenum, it allowed them to go do something differently with their first pick in the first round. And they go and they get Bradley Chubb. You put him with the rest of this defense, I think that's going to be an okay enough defensive front. Obviously, any defensive front that includes Vaughn Miller is going to be an okay enough defensive front. Obviously, any defensive front that includes

Vaughn Miller is going to be a pretty good defensive front. They did lose Aqib to lead. They still have Chris Harris a locked down corner. I think this defense is going to be good enough. They get Jake Butt back after his injury, who I think is going to be a good tight end. They add Troy Fumangali as well

at the tight end spot. I think the run game is going to be good enough. I think this team is going to be good good tight end. They add Troy Fumangali as well at the tight end spot. I think the run game is going to be good enough. I think this team is going to be good enough to steal 6, 7, 8 type wins. Are they going to get to 9? I doubt it, but I think they're going to get over that 7 win over under. So, we'll go

over on the Denver Broncos. Look at the rest of the division. Kansas City is a team that did win the division last year with 10 wins, 8.5 this year, with largely the same roster, albeit for one change. And it's a critical one, the change to Patrick Mahomes. They also add in Sammy Watkins as well, a nice vertical deep threat. They have the doctor, right guard Laurent Dervanet-Tardif. You've got to let that guy put the MD on the back of his jersey, NFL.

Come on, do the right thing. Some question marks on the defensive side of the ball, but I think this expected regression of 1.5, 1.5 less wins, is all on Patrick Mahomes. And he's going to make mistakes, sure. But I think that the idea that he's going to

start costing his team games, I'm not quite so sure about that one. Now, will they get over that hump? Will they get over that hump? Will they get over eight and a half wins? I think it's an eight-win team. I think it's an eight-win team.

And part of that is due to their schedule. When you look at Kansas City, they're playing a first-place schedule. So it's a little bit tougher than some of the other teams in this division. And looking at it on paper, you open the season at the Chargers, which looks to be a tough one, at Pittsburgh, which looks to be a tough one,

San Francisco at home, Niners are going to be improved, then at Denver, three of the first games on the road. They make another trip to New England in mid-October. They get Jacksonville at home.

When you open the season at the Chargers, at Pittsburgh, home against the Niners, at Denver, home against Jacksonville, at New England, that's a very, very tough stretch for any quarterback, for any team to navigate. It does get a little easier than they get home against the Bengals, home against the Broncos, at the Browns. That's an easy three-game stretch, and then they add a home game against Arizona. Those are four nice games. Then you've got at the Rams, at Oakland, home against the Ravens, home against the Chargers, at Seattle, and then home against Oakland and close out the season. That's a tougher schedule than a lot of the other teams in this division. For that reason, although I

like Patrick Mahomes a lot, I just think that it's a tough schedule and his play is just going to be one part of how they face that schedule and so I'm going the under there. Finally, the Oakland Raiders, eight wins last year. Is that

right? That's what my notes say. Let's double check that, friends. No, I get this backwards. Six wins last year. Their over-under total is eight, and I'm under there. I'm just not seeing it with the Raiders this year. Maybe next year, you know, maybe when they start piecing some of this stuff together,

but you look at what Oakland's done to date. They add Jordy Nelson, okay. Martavius Bryant, question marks. Amari Cooper hasn't seemed to have panned out. They bring in Colton Miller. He's their first-round draft pick. Some of their picks were just strange, to say the least. Question marks.

It's a couple of levels of this defense. Obviously, Kameo Mack is a great player, but, you know, do they have stuff up front beyond him? Adam Maurice Hurst was nice if the health checks out, but I'm just not buying it right now with the Oakland Raiders. So seeing that over-under of eight, I'm going to take the under there. So there you have it, some AFC West over-unders. Up next, the 2010 Patriots draft. And perhaps one pretty early miss in that collection of players.

That's ahead with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots. With you. Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this installment, this Wednesday installment of Locked on Patriots. I'm taking a quick look at the 2011 Patriots draft. Patriots drafted 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 players in that draft. The first one in the first round picked 17 overall. Nate Solder, tackle out of Colorado.

I think we can all sort of agree that they hit on that one. We're going to skip the first of their second round picks. They had two. We'll talk about the first second round pick in a moment, but the other was running back Shane Vereen out of the University of California. They had a third round pick, Stevon Ridley, running back out of LSU. And another third round pick right after that, Ryan Mallett, quarterback from Arkansas. We'll talk about him for a minute. Fifth-round pick, Marcus Cannon, guard from TCU, who is still with the team. Fifth-round pick, Lee Smith, tight end from Marshall. Sixth-round pick, Markel Carter, outside linebacker from Central Arkansas. And seventh-round pick, Malcolm Williams, cornerback from TCU. So I think looking at this, okay, the soldier pick, I think we could all agree was a very good pick.

He was their left tackle for a number of seasons. Shane Vereen was a strong contributor as a running back, receiver out of the backfield, did a lot of nice things for the Patriots. Stephon Ridley, until his sort of fumble issues and got himself in Bill Belichick's doghouse, he put up some good numbers for the Patriots. Marcus Cannon, that fifth-round pick, nice to get a starter-type offensive lineman, swing-tackle-type guy in the fifth round. That was a good pick.

Ryan Mallett was a first-round-type talent that had some issues off the field. The Patriots got him in the third round. There was always, I still remember those hopes that, oh, they're going to swing him for a first round pick or a second round pick or something crazy like that. In the end, he was traded for a conditional sixth round pick. And so maybe we didn't get the return on that that we would have liked. But all in all, pretty decent draft. But there was that player in the second round. Picked 33 overall.

Ross Eidolon, cornerback out of Virginia, who unfortunately was tagged with the nickname Glass Eidolon, rather unfortunate moniker because of the injuries that he had to deal with. He played two games for the Patriots in 2011 before injuring his hip in week two, and he was placed on injured reserve ending his season. He was placed on injured reserve ending his season in 2012,

and then he was released in August of 2013. So you could probably say that, okay, they didn't really hit it on that pick. But let's look at who was on the board when they made that pick. Now this was pick 33. This was the first pick of the second round. And right after that, at pick 34, the Buffalo Bills drafted Aaron Williams,

cornerback from the University of Texas, who 257 tackles, 36 passes broken up, seven interceptions, two forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 1 defensive touchdown. He did retire at the start of 2018 after multiple head and neck injuries. But he was a player that did contribute for a number of seasons for the Buffalo Bills. Who else was on the board? Well, they probably weren't going to go quarterback, but if they had decided to do that,

Andy Dalton comes off the board at 35 and Colin Kaepernick comes off the board at 36. Jabal Sheard comes off the board at 37. Akeem Ayers, linebacker from UCLA, comes off the board at 39. Brooks Reid, defensive end, comes off the board at 42. Not that they would have gone tight end after Gronkowski and Hernandez the year before, but Kyle Rudolph comes off the board at 43.

So there were a number of good players on the board. Patriots went in a different direction with Dowland, and that was probably the one that they'd like to have back looking at this draft today. But you can't hit them all. And all things being said, you know, when you get Solder, you get Vereen and Ridley, get Marcus Cannon, still a pretty good draft, even though they missed with that pick at 33 overall. That will do it for today's show. I will be back tomorrow. We'll probably do some timeline takes tomorrow, see what's going down on the Twitter timeline,

see what's going on in the football media world. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patriots.