Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots March 7, 2019 - Timeline Takes

Episode Date: March 7, 2019

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Hey there everybody, welcome on into a Wednesday installment of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield sliding into the big chair for today, Wednesday, March 7th, 2019. It's typically your Take Thursday show. We're going to get to some takes from the timeline a little bit later, but some crazy NFL madness is upon us. We are, as I said the other day, we are into lion seasons. You don't always believe what you hear, but some crazy rumors flying around about two different wide receivers. So I wanted to start by talking about those. Also, second portion of the show, I'm going to talk about one of the safeties that's available in free agency. Why I think he might make some

sense for the New England Patriots. If the price is right, obviously that is going to be a concern. Before we do any of that, though, reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's rookie scouting portfolio, and a bunch of SB Nation family websites. We've got Big Blue View. We've got Bleeding Green Nation and the QB Scosio and Pat's Pulpit doing some work for all three of those websites.

So please bless the rains or bless your timeline by checking out my work on all of these places. I've got stuff going up all the time on these great websites. Let's start now. And there are two big rumors flying around. And the big one, let's do that first. Because the big one that sort of really picked up steam, say, Wednesday afternoon, was Odell Beckham to the Cleveland Browns.

And this has been something that has kind of been kicking around for a while now. But it really seemed to sort of gather some momentum on Tuesday afternoon. You saw some generic tweets, some sort of shady type of tweets. Not shady, but tweets hinted at something big coming out of Cleveland. Hawkins was one that did it, the former wide receiver who now hosts the podcast with Joe Thomas. And for whatever reason, I think it's Andrew Hawkins. His first name seems to be escaping me right now.

Matt Miller from Bleacher Report, their lead lead draft analyst said something that put out a tweet out there about you know the rumors out there are crazy let's put it that way and finally benjamin albright was the first to really sort of come out and say what everybody was hinted at and that was that the browns were getting close to potentially acquiring Odell Beckham Jr. Now, Ben sort of cautioned people that this is not like a lock-solid thing because the way that Ben put it was like this. The way that Ben said it was saying it like this. You know, there are very different variations of the rumor but it's basically kevin zietler the offensive guard and draft picks plus another

player for odell beckham now albright says basically he can't stress enough that it's a rumor not currently current coming from any known credible source independent of what ben tweeted i heard the same you know i heard the same from somebody in the Cleveland area, somebody close to the organization, so to speak. That's the only way I'll put it. Various iteration of that kind of deal with some kind of pick involved going to the New York Giants. Now, let's sort of start this discussion by talking about why in the world the Giants want to trade Odell. I don't understand it.

Okay? Let me just say that at the outset because if you have Eli Manning and the plan is to load up for one last run with Eli, I understand the idea to protect him. If you're going to punt the decision to draft a quarterback, which I think you would do in this sort of scenario, maybe you trade back a bit.

You get down to, say, 10 or 14, one of these other teams that wants to come up and get a quarterback in the draft. And then you get some help along the offensive line with some young rookies that maybe are a little bit better of a fit than, say, in the draft. And then you get some help along the offensive line with some young rookies that maybe are a little bit better of a fit than, say, a more veteran guard, for example. So that's one thing. The other thing is if you're going to sort of make this kind of run and build around Eli and load up around Eli for one last season, don't trade away your best offensive weapon.

That just doesn't make sense to me. But if you are going to trade him away, then you go to Cleveland and you ask for more than an offensive guard that they seem willing to part with. You go to Cleveland and you basically say, alright, if you want Odell, that's fine. I want 17 and 49 coming back. Or even if it's not 17 and 49, which are

two of the picks that the Browns currently have right now, you look at what picks you have in the draft right now. The Giants don't have a third round pick. They've got a second, a 37, and a fourth at 109. That's a 72 pick gap. And so maybe if you're Dave Gettleman and you say, look, if you're not going to give me 17, then I want 29 and I want 81 or 96. At least get me into that area. Now, maybe you might think that's a little bit too much to give up for Odell,

but if you're going to do this as the Giants, you're going to get a better return, I think, than a guard and an early round pick. And you might say, look, Mark, okay, can you guarantee that that pick of 49 and 81, one of those guys will be better than, you know, getting Ziegler back? No. But if you're trading Odell, it does seem like you're moving in the rebuilding direction, the dismantling direction. So why get a guy that might be there for one or two years when you can get a guy, a rookie in,

that you can sort of build around, or two rookies in, that you can sort of start to build around? So it's just a curious decision to me from the Giants standpoint. if you're the browns i mean have the browns become sort of the destination type team have the browns come become that sort of team that people want to go play for now you got baker you got jarvis landry it seems like they're building something out there maybe they are maybe the browns are like the new it team.

And if that's the case, then I think this is a move that makes some sense for them. And so that's the Odell situation. Then there's the Antonio Brown situation. We're hearing that a deal is supposedly going to be in place by Friday, whether it's some sort of deadline, real or imagined, we don't know. We woke up to sort of stories today that there's maybe just one team in the mix. What team that is, we don't know. We can assume that it's probably one of the Bay Area teams. The Raiders do make some sense. The 49ers make some sense. The 49ers make some sense.

You know, so it seems like Antonio Brown is going to have a new home by Friday. Now, a lot of teams are sort of, at least a lot of outlets are saying that, look, you know, there are other teams like the Eagles that might be in it. But Adam Schefter says teams that have spoken to the Steelers about a potential Antonio Brown trade have been told that a deal is expected to be in place by Friday per league sources. I think one of the two Oakland teams makes some sense. People have said the Packers. That might make some sense too.

You get the new offensive line head coach, and we're going to want Aaron Rodgers to have some weapons to throw to. So Antonio Brown to Green Bay might make some sense as well. But be that as it may, we might see two of the game's top five receivers in new homes by the end of the week. And for all the sort of, you know, the NFL offseason, it's off to a pretty impressive start. And the NFL has sort of found a way to sort of keep themselves relevant in the offseason,

in this sort of dead time between the combine and the draft. Because let's face it, not everybody gets excited about pro days. You know, even me, I've been to them. I'm even sort of looking ahead to a potential, wow, this would be cool. Because you've got Brett Rippon's pro day on Tuesday, and then the next day is Gardner Minshew's. So you could do that trip to the Pacific Northwest of sorts and make a double of it and get to Gardner Minshew's pro day and Brett Rippins.

I mean, it's not like I have anything else going on, like work. But that would be super fun. Anyway, so those are some thoughts. The Odell thing, again, from the Giants' perspective, I don't get it. It doesn't seem to make sense for the Browns. Sure, I mean, if you're going to go get a top-five receiver, do it. Do it.

That's the Odell thing. And for Antonio Brown, if you've got the ability to make it happen, sure, go get a top-five receiver. Fantastic, fantastic, fascinating time in the NFL right now. Up next, we're going to talk about one of the safeties that's available. to make it happen, sure, go get a top five receiver. Fantastic, fantastic, fascinating time in the NFL right now. Up next, we're going to talk about one of the safeties that's available. I'm going to make the case for throwing money out, you know, and it's hard to do, why this guy makes some sense for New England.

That's ahead on this Thursday installment of Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield back with you now on this Thursday installment of the Locked on Patriots podcast. And we're going to talk about Landon Collins. And at the outset, I'm going to say that the math and the numbers and the contract stuff might not work. We'll get into that at the end, but I want to talk about Landon Collins, the player. And before I do that, I want to talk about Patrick Chun, the player. You might see where I'm going with this in a second, but if you think about this season

and the course of the Patriots defense, there was a lot that we saw from this Patriots defense in terms of finding an identity, so to speak. And one of the things that they did was creative personnel usage, and it's something that we've seen from Bill Belichick and his defenses over the years. And one of the things I remember talking about a ton was sort of their 3-2-6 package where they used Patrick Chun basically as a third linebacker at times. And we saw a lot of that 3-2-6, for example, in their game against Indianapolis

that Thursday nighter where on many snaps, their 3-2-6 looked just like a 3-3-5. You just had Patrick Chun aligned as a linebacker for the most part. And so obviously in today's NFL, positional flexibility, particularly with the safeties, if you're going to roll out three safety packages, is pretty paramount. You've got to have a safety that can sort of play as basically a third linebacker because, you know, 3-2 or 4-2, those are your common defensive fronts these days. You're not seeing a lot of base 4-3 or base 3-2 or 4-2 those are your common defensive fronts these days you're not seeing a lot of base 4-3 or base 3-4 so you need a safety that can still do some stuff in the secondary obviously still cover tight ends play some zone stuff but you also need a safety that can sort of play as a pseudo linebacker and we've seen some safeties mark baron for example just become

linebackers as a result and maybe they're playing sort of undersized but the great dave arts ball that dave archie on twitter was talking about on twitter yesterday where when you're thinking about sort of roster construction you could yeah sure get an undersized type of linebacker that can fill that role or better yet just get a good safety that can do both and it's weird to be talking about an emphasis on the safety position at the same time we're seeing guys like Landon Collins and Eric Weddle and Stewart from the Broncos become available it seems to be a very good safety class and Landon Collins is among them and so in that context I found this piece by Mike Renner, yes, from The Bachelor and also Pro Football Focus, fascinating.

He wrote a piece titled, Landon Collins is the best off-ball linebacker entering free agency. I thought it was fascinating. And he sets it up by saying, you know, the Ravens have not franchised C.J. Mosley. National media has anointed him, Mosley, as the top linebacker on the market. But Mike's point is this. There's another defensive player who, while not technically a linebacker, is the real top linebacker target, and that is Collins. And Mike starts by pointing out that he played 804 snaps last year.

Collins lined up as a deep safety on just 109 of them. 549 came either in the box or down on the line of scrimmage. And he's listed at six feet even, 222 pounds. Mike has a bunch of clips of him either down in the box or even, like he said, on the line of scrimmage, taking on blockers and finishing at the point of contact. And Mike also points out that one of the things the team struggle finding right now is a linebacker who can be successful in pass coverage. You know, it's tough to find in this day and age linebackers that can either run with tight ends or be active

enough in underneath zones to be effective. So many times we're seeing linebackers just come off the field on obvious passing situations and you're seeing teams run, you know, a 3-2-6 or even a 7 defensive back package. But Mike points out all six of Collins' past breakups this year came either underneath in zone coverage or defending the slot. And then Mike highlights a couple of plays where, as the article reads, his instincts as an underneath zone defender are exceptional. And you see him in underneath hook zones, underneath flat zones, breaking on throws. And he also has the athleticism to match tight ends stride for

stride in man coverage, to match running backs stride for stride in man coverage when they're coming out of the backfield. And so there you have it. You have a player that has positional flexibility, technically a safety, but with the skill set and the traits to fill that sort of third linebacker type role. It makes a ton of sense

for the New England Patriots. Now, would the New England Patriots have a need for a player like that? Given that, yes, they have Patrick Chung coming back. He's 32 right now. He's obviously going to be coming off of an injury. Obviously, there is a schematic need or a schematic role in the Patriots defense

for that type of player. I haven't just seen it last year with Patrick Chung. But the money is where it would get tricky, obviously. Because right now, look, Chun is under contract through the 2020 season. He's got a cap number of $3.575 million in 2019 and $3.6 in 2020. Collins, however, well, those numbers are different because he's a free agent. So he's looking to get paid. He's been on a rookie deal the past couple of years where his base salary as a rookie was $435,000. This past year, his base salary was 1.269 million with a bonus of

$677,000. His cap number was under $2 million. So he's looking to get paid. And what's the market value on a safety like him? Well, you go over to SportTrack and they've found guys like Harrison Smith, Earl Thomas, Devin McCourty, Malcolm Jenkins. And yeah, you can quibble with sort of, are those really comps? So let's sort of pick Malcolm Jenkins, for example. His deal right now, four years, $35 million and an average salary of $8.75 per year, which he signed when he was 28. If you want to make sort of what might be a closer comparison, keep in mind that Landon Collins right now is 25. Well, when he was 24, Earl Thomas signed a

four-year $40 million contract with an average salary of $10 million per now SportTrack sort of calculated it out and they're looking at a calculated market value of him for $9.3 million that's a big number especially when you look

at Patrick Chun's numbers when you look at Patrick Chun's numbers. When you look at safety contracts in general. Sort of an average for the year in that 9.3 range. That makes him one of the top 10 paid safeties in the NFL. Would interestingly enough put him right behind Devin McCourty.

Are the Patriots going to tie up that much money in the safety position? Maybe. But I think if they were to do that, they would have an eye towards replacing not a Patrick Chun, but a Devin McCourty himself. And while deep safeties might be devalued,

Bill Belichick plays a ton of cover one. A lot of man free. So you get that free safety in the middle of the field with the responsibility to roam and read the eyes. That's Devin McCourty's role, not going to be Landon Collins' role. And so I think if they were to spend that kind of money, it would be more towards replacing McCourty and not Chun. I think the scheme fit does work. It's the numbers that would make it tough. And of course, look, we're in line season we're in

speculation season we're in hypothetical season if money were no object i think landon collins would be a fantastic fit for the new england patriots and you could even see some situations where if you're going up against 12 personnel having the flexibility with both john and landon collins on the field would be amazing but because because of the numbers, probably we won't fit. But still, when we're sitting here early March, with nothing else to talk about apparently, stuff like that is fun to talk about. Up next, we're going to close things out

with some quick takes from the timeline. There's stuff flying all over the place right now. It's one of the craziest times of the year. And we are still about 50 or so days away from the draft, ladies and gentlemen. Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride so some takes from the timeline are next here at locked on patriots mark scoffield back with you now to quickly close out this thursday installment of the locked on patriots podcast and maybe i'm harping on the whole kyler murray thing a little bit too much but i did want to take a couple of moments here at the end of this show

to talk about it yet again because we touched on it briefly yesterday. Charlie Casserly saying two different things, which I think are a little bit different, but the two things that he was putting out there were, one, that the Cardinals were shopping around Josh Rosen. So there's story part one. Story part two, though, is that Charlie Casserly basically sort of unloaded on Kyler Murray and his performance in the meeting rooms at the Combine. Here's what he had to say. First, he prefaced his comments by saying this. He better hope that Cliff Kingsbury takes him number one because this was not good.

Leadership, not good. Study habits, not good. The board work, below not good. Not good at all in any of those areas and raising major concerns about what this guy is going to do. So there you have it. I mean, that's what Casterly said. Now, Murray for himself, interestingly enough, he liked a tweet that was put out by, I forget the account, but it had a quote from, of all people, Bill Belichick talking about, you know,

the only people that have been wrong more than Casterly are meteorologists, or he's been wrong more than a meteorologist. I forget the exact phrase. So you can tell where Murray's head is at. But even more pointedly was Murray's agent. Murray's agent, Eric Burkhart, added his voice to the defense of his client. He gave some quotes to Pro Football Talk on Wednesday afternoon. My initial reaction was to laugh because I knew the old guard would inevitably try to come up with the usual pre-draft nonsense.

But when I later watched this man say what he did, it was over the top and it definitely felt personal. And that's when I got pissed off. He continued. First and foremost, Kyler is an exemplary person. He's everything you hope your own son grows up to become. We're talking about a young man who has done everything right and worked relentlessly his entire life to achieve and push for greatness. We're talking about the first human ever drafted in the top 10 in two major sports leagues and who just completed the greatest single season in football history. You will not find even one former teammate or coach at any level in any sport

who's played with Kyler Murray who has anything remotely negative to say about him, his leadership, or his work ethic. And then Burkhart directed his ire right at Casterly. So what do I think about an agenda-driven analyst who's never once talked to Kyler or any of his coaches or teammates? I think it's disgusting and embarrassing, and he should be ashamed of himself. Further, my business partners and I personally represent coaches and executives who sat in on eight of Kyler's 10 formal combine interviews. I spoke directly to each of them, as well as executives from the other two teams and many others who I don't represent but were present, and all of them were extremely positive about his entire interviews, with each citing specific examples as to why. Further, the bottom line here is that it calls into question the motives of a man to get

on national television and cite anonymous sources on things such as leadership and study habits about somebody he's never met. Look, if you don't like Kylo's game, it's cool. If you don't like his size and want to talk about that, that's fine too. If you're into a Heath Shuler type looking guy, interesting reference there, then hype those guys and say why. But when you slander the character and work ethic of a young man who's worked his ass off his entire life and done everything right to put himself in his current position, you better cite your sources and come with a better record than 18 and 46 as a GM of the Texans and whose own leadership and accountability has been questioned by his old bosses and colleagues, as well as the greatest coach on the planet, referencing Bill Belichick. Now, he didn't come quietly there. So what are we to make of all of this? First,

Burkhart's got to go to bat for his guy, right? That's your job as an agent. You hear reports like this, you got to back your client. And he's not the only one backing him up right now. Lincoln Riley is out there as well. He had a recent interview where he sat down with Dan Patrick and said, I've personally spoken with the majority of teams that he met with at the Combine, and everyone was glowing about their conversations with Kyler. Basically, the complete opposite of what Charlie said. So there's that. This is Lion season. Remember that Charlie Casterly is part of the old guard. So is there a possibility that teams are leaking some stuff in order to see Murray perhaps fall? Maybe. It probably isn't

going to come from Arizona because if they really are going to take him number one overall, they want to hype him up. So they want to make the value higher that they get in return. If a story like this is coming from Arizona, then yeah, they're going to get just that third round pick in return. So it is lion season. This is yet another example of how we shouldn't read so much into everything that we do, which is interesting coming from me, a guy that creates content on a daily basis. But that being said, take it all in stride. Listen to this show, listen to all the stuff, consume it all, but take it all with a grain of salt. Because when push comes to shove more than anything else what we're probably

going to see end up happening is kyler murray coming off the board first overall because the arizona cardinals seem to love him and here's the other thing we don't know what order he took his interviews in we don't know how much he cared about some of the other interviews because if he knows that he's going one we've seen quarterbacks before take some other meetings less seriously. I mean, even last year, I think Baker Mayfield said that either he didn't study for some meetings or he didn't read the playbooks or he didn't even want to take them because he knew, look, you're not going to be drafting me. Deion Sanders walked into a meeting of the team, asked them what they were picking.

They were picking the 20s and walked right out. You know, some of these guys, they are pressed for time too. And Kyler Murray might not be the type that's going to blow you away in a meeting room. Maybe that's not him. Maybe he's more of a quiet, shy, demeanor type kid. So all of this, take it with a grain of salt, take it for what it's worth. He's still probably coming off the board first because that seems to be where this is trending. I was on with Matt Williamson yesterday and he said, look, I've been doing this long enough to know you see where the things are going here. It seems like he's coming off the board first.

And so you take this up with a grain of salt, but it keeps us entertained until the draft. That will do it for today's show. I will be back tomorrow with sort of a recap of the week, everything that was, things I was reading, all that fun stuff. And then Monday we are back at it, Locked Draft 4.0. Until next time, keep it locked right here

to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.