Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 10, 2017 - Broncos Gameday Edition

Episode Date: November 10, 2017

If it's Friday, it's your gameday edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield has everything you need to know about the upcoming Sunday night tilt between Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the New England Patriots against Von Miller, Aqib Talib and the Denver Broncos.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Patriots, your daily New England Patriots podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here with you in the big chair. Apologies again to Chuck Todd, the host of Meet the Press, for kind of borrowing his tagline, shall we say, for his Meet the Press program. At the outset, before we dive in, it's November 10th here in the United States. We are on the cusp of Veterans Day here in the United States, Remembrance Day for some of the nations in the old British Empire.

Holiday that's used to commemorate those who gave their lives in the line of duty. In the former Commonwealth nations, Veterans Day is used to recognize those who have served here in the former Commonwealth Nations Veterans Day used to recognize those who have served here in the United States often cone both holidays coincided with Armistice Day the end of World War one so to those who have served those who are serving a heartfelt thank you to those who may have lost loved ones sincerest sincerest condolences. A thank you to your family and those who knew you knew who I've served as well. Here's our roadmap for the show today.

We're going to dive into this Broncos Patriots tilt set for Sunday night. I'm going to start with why I think Rob Gronkowski is going to have a massive game. Probably music to many fantasy owners ears ears and Patriots fans' ears as well. Then I'm going to talk about the game itself, what I'm looking for, my sort of expectations when both teams have the football. We'll close out with my predictions for Sunday night. And then finally, at the end, a little call to action for the listeners to the Locked On Patriots podcast. I'm going to ask you for a little bit of hope.

Hope you guys can come through for me. But let's start with Rob Gronkowski. And here's the thing. Over the years, Gronkowski has traditionally had good games against the Denver Broncos. Now, his first two games against Denver in the National Football League were somewhat quiet. 2011, he faced them in December. He had four receptions on five targets for 53 yards, was held out of the end zone. A year later, the next October, again, four receptions on five

targets for just 35 yards. So those were his first two games against Denver, but then the numbers start to pick up. Faces them in November of 2013. This was a game where the Patriots were down 24-0 at one point. They come back to win it in overtime on a Gostowski 31-yard field goal. In that game, Gronkowski. Seven catches on ten targets. 90 yards and a touchdown. Then the following November, almost a year later.

Again, ten targets for nine receptions, 105 yards, and a touchdown. You know, that was the game where Gronkowski had a tremendous night. They did some things schematically where they split him out. They would come out of the jumbo formation and throw to him after flanking Gronkowski out he also had that incredible catch that one-handed catch that was initially ruled down at the one Patriots challenged it and it's that it stood but he had that catch right along the goal line we're sort of reaching back behind his body then again he caught a touchdown on the very next play and one yard touchdown but again big game from

Gronkowski there against the Broncos 2015 and a game at Denver that the Patriots lost Gronkowski six catches on ten targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. Two playoff games as well against the Denver Broncos. The first in 2011, 10 receptions on 12 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. That game, the Patriots won 45-10, led by Gronkowski with the three touchdowns, going up against Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos. And then 2015, the AFC Championship game at Denver.

Patriots lose 20-18. Gronkowski in that game, eight receptions on 15 targets, 144 yards, one touchdown. Two playoff games against Denver, four touchdowns. Three in the first game, one in the second. Those have been his numbers traditionally against Denver. Gronk has got off to a pretty good start here as well. At this point in the season, Gronkowski, he's played in all seven games, started all seven.

56 targets, 34 receptions 509 receiving yards 5 touchdowns so a good start for Gronkowski who again is coming off of injury so he's starting to I think get into you know game shape

and if you sort of look at what he's done so far this year, the numbers are starting to pick up. He had two touchdown catches against the Jets a few weeks back. Had a touchdown last week against the Chargers. But those numbers are nice, but I'm more interested in what Denver has done this year against tight ends.

Because the Broncos have struggled a bit against tight ends this year, and the numbers bear that out. Week two against the Dallas Cowboys. This is a game that Denver won going away. But against tight ends, they gave up 10 receptions on 97 yards and a touchdown. They gave up a touchdown to Evan Ingram and the Giants back in Week 6. Giants tight ends had 6 receptions for 88 yards and a touchdown.

A couple weeks ago against Travis Kelsey, seven receptions, 133 yards and a touchdown. Last week against the Eagles. Eagles were without Zach Ertz, but still, Eagles tight ends, five receptions, 80 yards and a touchdown. So that's sort of one way to look at it. Another way to look at it, and I've done this before with you guys, is sort of through a fantasy lens. Given the amount of information that's out there from a fantasy perspective, you can

get a good sense of how a defense performs against a specific position. And if you look at fantasy points per game, say on FanDuel, Broncos are giving up 14.5 points per game to tight ends. That's third most in the league. Only the Browns and the Giants are worse. Broncos are giving up five touchdowns this year. Five touchdown passes, two tight ends. Only the Giants, Browns, Jets, and Ravens have given up more.

And we've also talked about DVOA, Defense Adjusted Value Over Average. That's over football outsiders. And this is really interesting. If you look at how they break things down, in terms of just pass defense itself, Denver, fairly middle of the pack pass defense right now.

They're ranked 15th in their DVOA. But if you start to split it out a bit, you'll see against a team's number one wide receiver, which football outsiders, they admit it's a little subjective how they delineate between number one and number two wide receiver, but against a team's number one wide receiver, they're the third best defense in the league. That's the Aqib Tlaib factor.

Against a team's number two wide receiver, they're 18th in the league, so they the Aqib Tlaib factor. Against the team's number two wide receiver, they're 18th in the league. So they're more middle of the pack, but still, these are pretty decent numbers. When you get to what they've done against tight ends, they are 25th in the league. And they're giving up 75.8 yards per game to tight ends in the passing game. So when you put all of that together, I think Gronkowski is on track to have a big afternoon. His numbers are good. They've traditionally been good against the Broncos.

And the Broncos have really struggled defending tight ends. And the tape, the scheme, the stuff like that that we're seeing, it bears it out as well. You go back to that game that travis kelsey had there was a third and seven play they put him in a stack slot to the left run sort of a deep curl row stuff that we've seen new england done with dude with gronkowski a second and ten play they put him in a wing they run a little run pass option look with alex smith and they run a simple little bubble screen to travis kelsey but that goes for a big game then a touchdown to kelsey they split him out why iso he runs it out and up stuff that the patriots have done with rob gronkowski. Last week, the Eagles.

They lose Zach Ertz, their top tight end. He's got a hamstring. He can't go. Brent Selick and Trey Burton, those guys had good games too as we went through the numbers. But they use Y. Issa with Burton. He runs a post route for a big gain on a third and nine. They have Selick in line, a little chip and release to the flat. We're going to talk about chip and release a little bit later, but they do that with him. It goes for a big gain on a first

and 10. They split Selick wide to the right on a wide iso where the tight end is alone split to one side of the field and three other receivers to the other side. That's one of those formations where you force the defense to sort of declare their intentions. Because when you split the tight end wide by himself, defense then has to decide, are we going to use a linebacker? Are we going to keep our cornerback over there? And when they make that decision, you can take advantage of it. Think back to Super Bowl XLIX, the touchdown from Brady to Gronkowski before the half.

That comes on why ISO. They got Gronkowski matched up against a linebacker I believe it was KJ Wright. Runs a vertical route, beats him. Touchdown. Because that's what you force a defense to do. Seattle could have left Richard Sherman out there.

Or left a cornerback out there, but in that case, Gronkowski can use his size. You leave a linebacker out there, Gronkowski can use his speed to win in those situations. So both the numbers bearing out historically, traditionally, as well as this season and the scheme, Gronkowski is due for a big game against the Denver Broncos. Of course, having said all that, I'm sure he won't have one. But I think he's due for a big game. I think the numbers in the film bear it out. Up next, we're going to get through my Sunday night expectations,

what I'm looking for, what I'm going to be watching when both teams have the football. Slant is going to be this. The one thing in each situation that really concerns me. That's coming up next here on the Locked On Patriots podcast, your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Okay, let's get into this game a little bit more. When New England has the ball, here's what I'm gonna be watching for I'm gonna be watching for Vaughn Miller and that

probably doesn't come as a surprise but Marcus cannon did not practice on Wednesday seems like he's gonna be sidelined as we head into this game on Sunday night and if he was active he would be the guy handling Vaughn Miller now if cannon can't go likely Adrian waddles the guy that steps in he's their swing tackle. So if it's Waddle that's in there and frankly, even if Cannon's active and he comes off the sidelines he's going to be dealing with an ankle injury so that they might do this

anyway. Is there going to do some things to get that right tackle help against Vaughn Miller? And it starts with stuff we've talked about before. And that's chip and release. You might see this with Gronkowski. If he's in there. If Dwayne Allen's in there as well. Getting a chip on Vaughn Miller, slowing down his initial pass rush.

This can come from the running backs as well. We've seen this with Rex Burkhead this year. It wouldn't surprise me to see Burkhead get a lot of playing time in this game because he's also adept at that aspect of playing the position that chip and release stuff where you again just get a little shoulder on that guy give the tackle some help and then release into the flat I'd expect to see a lot of two running back sets in this game too it wouldn't surprise me to see you know Brady back there in the shotgun with James White to one side Burkhead to the other side

so they've got a running back on each side of the formation to help to chip on both edges I think this is going to be another big quick game too I think you're going to see Brady try to get the ball out of his hands quickly kind of neutralize that pass rush

similar to what we talked about going into the game against the Chargers and what they like to doize that pass rush, similar to what we talked about going into the game against the Chargers and what they like to do with their pass rush. You know, I don't think this is going to be a big downfield type passing game. You know, the guys I think who are going to play the biggest roles here are Gronkowski, for the reasons we talked about as well, some stuff over the middle, some hot route stuff, some seam route stuff where the ball can get out quickly.

The routes don't take a ton of time to develop. I think the running backs are going to see a lot of play in time. I think they're going to see a lot of divide packages where, again, you get those two running backs in the backfield to help protect Brady. I think you're going to see a lot of 20 and 21 personnel. Like I said, there's two running backs. Sometimes you might even see two running backs and three receivers. Gronkowski on the sideline. Sometimes

you might see a 21 personnel where you have the two running backs, one tight end, and one wide receiver. I mean, excuse me, two wide receivers. But still, I think you're going to see a lot of two-back packages as well. Because they need to make sure that they neutralized and neutralized Vaughn Miller

the best they can. Look, Miller's having a great season. Over at Pro Football Focus, again, plug that Edge subscription that you can get. Leave a review on iTunes for the Locked on Patriots podcast. Miller is leading all Edge defenders with 47 quarterback pressures right now. According to their grading, he is their highest overall edge defender thus far in 2017. He's ranked second against the run, fifth in effectiveness on pass rush and snaps. He's got eight sacks on this season.

And not all sacks are created equal, but our good friend John Ledyard, who hosts Locked On Steelers, he co-hosts locked on NFL draft with Trevor Sycamore. John's developed contextualized sack production where he looks at every single sack and tries to delineate which ones are sort of cleanup sacks or where the quarterbacks would have contributed to it or which sacks are actually like high quality. And five of Miller's eight sacks are high quality. So look, this is a good edge defender that you have to be ready for, and the Patriots need to have an answer for him.

And whether Cannon is in the game or not, I think you're going to see this stuff. I think you're going to see chips. I think you're going to see quick game. I think you're going to see the running backs involved heavily you know so that's kind of my approach to that aspect of it up next we're gonna take a look at what I'm expecting to see what I'm watching for when the Broncos have the football and then we're gonna some predictions. That's next here with Locked On Patriots and me, Mark Schofield.

Okay, now let's take a look at sort of what has me a little worried about when Denver has the ball. And look, you don't have to tell me. You don't need to tell me that they've got a problem with the quarterback position. I've been seeing this and writing about this for a while over a Bleacher Report with the NFL 1000 project.

Simeon, not the answer. Brock Osweiler, doesn't seem like the answer. Is Paxton Lynch the answer? Maybe at some point, he's not going to be, it doesn't seem like he's going to be ready for this game.

Advanced Joseph has said, look, we're going with Brock for one more shot. He's earned another opportunity at it. Okay. The passing game in a vacuum from the Denver Broncos, that doesn't worry me. What worries me is a two-pronged approach. Can the Broncos get their ground game going?

And if so, that feeds into how they get their passing game going. Broncos have been most effective this year in the passing game when the ground game is going and they can build off their play-action pass and stuff. You know, right now, look, Denver comes into this game 3-5. In their three wins, they've gained 140 yards or more on the ground. Here's what they've done in their five losses. 111 against Buffalo.

46 against the Giants. 69, obligatory, nice, against the Chargers. They did have 177 on the ground against the Chiefs, but they also had five turnovers in that game. And then last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, they only had 35 yards on the ground. So that's job one for this New England defense is stop the run. Because, look, if the Broncos can get the ground game going,

if they can start churning out those chunk plays on the ground, if they can start getting six, seven, eight yards of pop on the ground, that sets up the stuff they do in the passing game. It sets up those deep drops of play action. It sets up Osweiler and that boot action stuff that they can do with him. It plays into how Denver can win this game because then you're talking about grinding the clock.

You're talking about keeping the Patriots' offense on the sideline. You're talking about keeping that environment at mile-high field, invested in this game, keeping them amped up. Because you know, look, said it earlier in this week,

this is sort of a do-or-die type game for the Denver Broncos. You know, they need this win to get off the losing streak. They need this win to somehow get back into the AFC West picture. Because otherwise, look, you're talking about a season that might just get away from them.

And so the thing that sort of keeps me up at night, keeps me worried about this game, is Denver getting that ground game going, establishing the run, working that outside stretch zone stuff, because it feeds into everything they want to do offensively.

So the Patriots need to stop the run. First, foremost, full stop, period. End of story. If they can't stop the run, this game could get rather interesting. But what's going to happen on Sunday night? My predictions, here we go. Pat's road favorite, 7.5 point favorites

7.5 points on the road over under 46 here's the thing you give Bill Belichick a bye week to get ready good things happen coming off of bye weeks in the Bill Belichick

era of the New England Patriots they are 12-5 they did lose last year off the bye i lost to seattle seahawks but when usually when you give belichick that bye week to get ready he's going to have an answer for what the new opponent is going to be doing and so when i see that seven and a half number I'm not scared. That doesn't scare me. I think New England covers this. When I see that over-under 46, again, not scared. I think we go over here.

And here's why. I don't think they're going to get that ground game going. I think New England's going to do everything they can to stop the run and put this game in Brock Osweiler's hands. And does Brock Osweiler really scare you at this point? No. Not at all. And when the Patriots have the ball,

there are opportunities against this Denver Broncos defense. There are opportunities with the tight end. There are opportunities with other wide receivers. Look, Carson Wentz's first touchdown pass of the game last Sunday, they went after Aqib Talib. His defense isn't invincible. The no-fly zone that people have called Denver's defense in the past, maybe they come out and prove me wrong here, but I haven't seen it.

I haven't seen it in the past couple of weeks. They've given up some big numbers to tight ends and to other guys in the passing game. Carson Wentz dropped four TDs on him. Put that all together, I think the Patriots win. I think they cover it and I think that over hits. Let's close it out and I told you guys at the outset, look, a little call to action.

Here it is again. Tell your friends, tell your loved ones, tell everybody you know to listen, to subscribe, to give the Locked On Patriots podcast a chance. Tell the people on Twitter, tell the people on Facebook, share the love. Thanksgiving coming up. You want to avoid an awkward family conversation? Talk about the Locked On Patriots podcast at the dinner table. Let your friends and family know

this is a great podcast to listen to. Patriots five days a week, great guests and more. Also, quick little shout out. If you or somebody you know has a business in New England, in the Boston area, and you want to tap into a big time Boston area market,

or even if it's more global, we have listeners all over the world, Brazil, France, United Kingdom, Japan, all over the world. If you want to be a part of this, if you want to be a part of this show, you know, you can reach out to me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. You can email me mark.schofield at gmail.com. I'd love to work with you, get your product, your business into the hearts and minds of the loyal listeners

to the Locked On Patriots podcast. So help me help you. Help me help you. Help me spread the love of the Locked On Patriots podcast here. Again, I love doing this show. I love it each and every day. I love the feedback I'm getting on it.

I appreciate each and every one of you. So help me help you, my friends. That's been your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. I will be back late, late, late Sunday night after the game with my instant analysis. Hopefully, it's another great, good, and bad edition and not a good, bad, and ugly edition. Hopefully the Patriots get back and stay on the win column there, keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Until we talk again, everybody, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield, and Locked on Patriots.