Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 14, 2018 - State of the Nation

Episode Date: November 14, 2018

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Hello there everybody, welcome on into a State of the Nation edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield sliding into the big chair for today, Wednesday, November 14th, 2018. And what we're going to do today is kind of reset the board, shall we? We're going to take a look at where this team is big picture, where this team is offensively, where this team is defensively, and try to figure out, look, just where is, where are we? Where is this team right now?

Are we confident? Are we pleased? Are we satisfied? Has this team met expectations or not? But before we do all of that, a reminder to follow me on Twitter at Mark Schofield. Check out the work at places like InsideThePylon.com, Pro Football Weekly, The Score, Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Big Blue View, part of the SB Nation family of websites. As I've said, if there's an outlet covering the game of football that we all love, chances

are I'm doing some work for them. Let's sort of start this way. And if you could, I mean, legally speaking here, if you are able to do so, close your eyes for a minute. If you're on a train, if you're on the subway, if you're just chilling out at home and you're able to do so, just close your eyes. If you're driving, please don't close your eyes. I'm not a practicing lawyer anymore, but I don't want to assume any sort of legal responsibility for you driving onto somebody's front yard or something like that. But close your eyes and think back to August. It's that sort of dead time of the year. Maybe you're on vacation.

Weather's a lot nicer. Certainly not getting dark at 4.30 in the afternoon. And I want you to put yourself in that mindset of the summertime and thinking about this Patriots season and thinking about what you would expect from the New England Patriots. And I want to sort of frame it this way. Imagine, if you will, that the New England Patriots are going to be without Rob Gronkowski for a period of time. They're gonna lose Isaiah Wynn to a season-ending injury before the regular season game start. They're gonna lose

Sonny Michel, their other first-round pick before the game start. You know that there's a Julian Edelman suspension in the mix. And I also want to factor in this into your equation. With all of that, the Patriots are going to be one and two after three weeks. They're going to lose games to Jacksonville and Detroit. Putting that together, I think you could make the case that if you were told that back in August that all of those things were going to come into play and that the Patriots after week three

were going to be one and two and then somebody asked you this question at the bye week, what do you think their record is going to be? You would probably say things have gone south. This is a bad team. Injuries, losses to Detroit and Jacksonville. Boy, this team's probably 5-5?

With that kind of start? With those kind of injuries? Now let's take a step back. New England Patriots are 7-3. They're coming off a very bad loss, to be sure. But they're also coming off a six-game win streak. And in that win streak, let's recount what they did. They took care of the Dolphins 38-7,

and yes, Miami always struggles up in New England. But remember during that week, that was one of those, oh boy, sky is falling, Miami can come in and sort of take what at the time would have been a three-game lead in the AFC East. That they had the turnaround short week, they take care of Indianapolis, who, by the way, is playing better football.

Now, they've beaten up on teams like Oakland, for example, so we don't know how good Indianapolis is right now, but Indianapolis seems like a better team. Then they host the hottest team in the National Football League, the team that everybody's talking about, and they pull out a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Then they go into Soldier Field. And yes, it comes down to a last-second play. A Hail Mary that's stopped a yard short. But they pull out a win on the road. And what's lost in some of the recent

discussion, all the Patriots can't beat good teams on the road. The Chicago Bears are in first place. The Chicago Bears have a chance to really solidify their hold on the NFC North with a win on Sunday night against Minnesota and then followed up with another win against Detroit next week on Thanksgiving Day. And suddenly the Bears are really in the driver's seat in the NFC North,

something nobody saw coming. Then, yes, they have a Monday night at Buffalo against Derek Anderson. Maybe not to the performance you want, but a divisional game on Monday night for the first time in 10 years in Buffalo. We know what that environment was like. They pull out that win. Then they come back another short type week against Green Bay at home. Yes, but a national game.

Then they win that game. That's a fairly impressive stretch of games against teams that are in playoff contention. You know, Chicago right now, if the game's ended right now, Chicago's your number three seed in the NFC. You know, the Packers are just on the outside looking in. The Dolphins are just on the outside looking in. The Colts are on the outside, yes, but they get a shot at getting in. And so, again, big picture from where this team was and where it's been through, 7-3 is not the end of the world by any stretch of the imagination.

And let's look down the road a bit. New England Patriots coming out of a bye. They got three road games left. Three home games left. A trip to the Jets, which I don't think scares anybody, even though it's a divisional game. Then they get Minnesota at home, which will be a tough game.

They go to Miami. Who knows what the Dolphins look like then? And then obviously what's shaping up to be a huge game at Pittsburgh, which may decide the number two seed, or who knows? to be a huge game at Pittsburgh, which may decide the number two seed or who knows, it may decide something more than that.

It may decide the number one seed depending on how Kansas City does. And so, they finish the season, home games, Buffalo and the Jets

at home. And if it comes down to them needing wins in week 16 and 17, then there's that going for them. And so overall, given where this team started, given how things have gone, this is not that bad. And let's look at that Pittsburgh schedule for a second

because they get Jacksonville on the road this week. They get Denver on the road next week. Tough places to play. They get a home game against the Chargers. Those are three tough games. Yes, Jacksonville and Denver seem to be struggling, but those are games on the road. Chargers seem good this year. They seem to be living up to the hype.

They go to Oakland. We expect them to win that game. Then that game against the Patriots. Then they go to New Orleans. Which schedule would you rather have, Pittsburgh's or New England's? And so the sky is not falling. I want to take a few moments here and sort of talk about the defense before we switch gears and look at the offense.

Defensively, we're seeing the sort of bend but don't break New England Patriots defense coming back right scoring defense their 14th in the league giving up 23.6 points per game and now again maybe that's not where you'd like to see

them but consider that you give up 40 to the Chiefs you give up 31 to the Bears give up 34 to the up 40 to the Chiefs, you give up 31 to the Bears, you give up 34 to the Titans, 31 to the Jags. Considering they've had some games where they've given up a lot of points,

it's not that bad when you dive into it. And sort of in terms of, say, yards per game, how are the Patriots? Well, they're 25th in the league. But remember last year, a defense that got to the Super Bowl was basically near the bottom for the entirety of the season. 25th is actually

an improvement. And are there problems on the defensive side of the ball? Yes. We went through some of them in yesterday's show. Pass rush has always been an issue. Coverage has been an issue at times. Stephon Gilmore had a bad day against Corey Davis. But I think if you sort of look big picture at this Patriots defense, this is the kind of defense that traditionally the Patriots have

been able to win with during the latter half of the Brady-Belichick era. Traditionally, how are they winning games at the start of the Brady-Belichick era. Traditionally, how are they winning games at the start of the Brady-Belichick era? It's with the defense. The defense playing better than this. But traditionally, a defense playing to this level has been good enough. Now, I think what might have people concerned is that this year, with the injuries, with some of the offensive struggles, and yes, perhaps a question about the quarterback, that it might not be enough. And we'll deal with that in the next part of this State of the Nation edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back with you now on this State of the Nation edition

of the Locked On Patriots. And it's time to talk about the New England Patriots offense. And, you know, as somebody that is not exactly internet famous or anything like that, but as somebody that is sort of called upon from time to time to opine on the quarterback position and Tom Brady, whether it be national, local, international shows. Obviously, I get asked a ton about TB12. And people who know me outside of the football world, family, friends, they will ask me.

They will DM me. They will text me. My phone has been melting over the past 48 hours or so. Is it true? Is Tom Brady done? Is the decline here? And in yesterday's show, I did spend a couple of minutes wondering about that very question and dive it into perhaps the velocity issue. And perhaps whether it was heat of the moment or what, I found myself for a moment there wondering it myself, having that sort of crisis of confidence. You know, people in everyday walks of life sometimes have those crisis of confidence moments. You know, whether it's, you know, a religious reason or a political reason or whatever, you start to wonder,

look, do I have this right or am I wrong on this one? And so I found myself sort of wondering, look, are the people who have been predicting the Tom Brady demise finally right? And it's a cottage industry. And I've called it such on this show and elsewhere people have been proclaiming the end of the brady era going back to like 2012 and eventually those people will be proven right because father time is undefeated it's a fact of life. He comes for us all. And if I keep eating cured meat, as I have been the past couple of days,

now that I don't have to make weight, he might be coming for me pretty soon. I'm going to get back into training mode. But I digress. And so I spent a lot of the time Tuesday afternoon having gone through the Tape Tuesday show, sort of revisited my notes on Tom Brady throughout the season. And I continued to have that sort of crisis of confidence.

My notes from this year weren't sort of putting me at ease. They weren't really calming me down. So what I did was this. I went to the filing cabinet and I pulled out a folder that reads the 2017 Tom Brady. That's right. I have a filing cabinet with a folder by game by game, play by play notes on Tom Brady. I started flipping through those and And I would see things like poor placement on this throw, bad read here, bailed out by defensive penalty, you know, going through games against the Jets, games against the Denver Broncos, games they won, games they lost. You know, you could look at

the AFC Championship game. He's shaking. Defenses get into him. He's feeling the pressure. He's not going to settle in. You can look at the Super Bowl. I've got those notes

in front of me right now. And, you know, you can see You can look at the Super Bowl. I've got those notes in front of me right now. And you can see poor placement on this throw. Throw behind white. Pressured high throw. Pressured on the screen. Running back hitting the backfield. Shouldn't have thrown it.

Misses Gronk on a seam route that was open. And so if I'm being honest, that calmed me down. That made me feel a lot better about where we are right now after just one bad game and a stretch of Brady going some games now without a touchdown pass.

Because playing quarterback is so incredibly difficult that there will be bad moments. And if you think about two of those games I was just talking about, the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl, Brady throws for a record number of yardage in that game. And he had them in position to win that game, but for a strip sack. And I don't think you can put that on him. That AFC Championship game comeback. Do I think that there is sort of a consistency problem with Tom Brady? Yes.

And I think what we're seeing is that perhaps Tom Brady is in decline. But Tom Brady's decline is different than the decline we have seen from other quarterbacks. Because now Tom Brady has become a top 10 quarterback instead of a top 5 quarterback. You want to look at sort of passing statistics. Adjusted net yards per attempt, Tom Brady's currently 13th. It's not where you'd like him to be But it could be worse Quarterback rating He's 16th Not where you'd like him to be

But it could be worse Still has one fourth quarter Comeback this year Two game winning drives this year Yards per attempt It's 17 Again a little bit lower when you like it to be, but it could be worse.

If this is the Tom Brady decline, that this is the moment where Tom Brady is going to become guys like Favre and Manning. Guys like Favre and Manning had to retire. Guys like Favre and Manning were like benched. Now we're seeing Tom Brady, after this bad stretch of games, drop down to still an above average NFL quarterback.

And that's during this stretch. He gets the Jets. He gets the Jets twice. He gets the Bills. He gets a bye week. And gets the Jets twice. He gets the Bills. He gets a bye week. And so what I'm trying to say is, the more and more I sort of took stock of where Tom Brady has been over the past two years

and looked big picture, the better I felt about where this team is offensively. Are there things they need to fix? Yes. First, they need to get healthy. They need to make sure Michelle is healthy. They need to make sure Gronkowski is healthy. They need to make sure Michelle is healthy. They need to make sure Gronkowski is healthy. They need to make sure Josh Gordon is healthy.

And by golly, they need to make sure that Shaq Mason is healthy. I think we've seen the importance of Shaq Mason over the past two weeks. But if you sort of take a step back and look at everything, this team

is still in very good shape. They still have Tom Brady. I do not think that the decline is here. And if there is such a thing as a Tom Brady decline, it just makes him an above average NFL quarterback, which they can usually win with. Maybe you get a little bit of help. This is a team that can still win a Super Bowl.

This is a team that can still make that kind of run. It's just, as we saw at the start of the year, if the recipe to winning is they need 2007 Tom Brady to go out and do 2007 Tom Brady things, otherwise they don't have a chance at winning. That might be a little bit too far of a task right now. That might be too big of an ask. But if they get this defense plan a little bit better, and they should, I mean, again, mobile quarterbacks have given them fits.

Well, you're not going to see as many over the rest of the season now. Maybe Donald. That's pretty much it. You might not see a really truly mobile quarterback until you get to the playoffs. Unless maybe Josh Allen comes back in Week 16. So that helps. You know, because the Mariotas, the Mahomes,

the Rogers, the Trubisky's. Those guys gave them fits. Some of those guys won games against New England. So that helps. The bye helps. So as far as the overall state of where this team is right now, maybe it's the benefit of looking back. Maybe it's the benefit of hindsight.

Maybe it's the benefit of having some extra hours to sort of think on it. I think this team is just fine. I think this team ends up with a bye. I think this team ends up in the AFC Championship game yet again. If it's in Kansas City, that will be a tough ask. I still think they could go in and win a game on the road in Kansas City if they need to to get to a Super Bowl. Now, as far as winning a Super Bowl, look, the NFC looks great right now. Let's try to get there for us one game at a time here.

But I still think, look, after 48 hours of the sky falling, I think we can also come back to Earth and say, look, the sky has not fallen yet. If Tom Brady is in decline, it's just dropping him from elite to near elite. And nine times out of

ten, that's going to be enough to win games. And so as far as the state of the Patriots nation, I think it should be as it always should be. Very strong. Up next, some final thoughts here on this State of the Nation edition of the Locked On Patriots podcast. Mark Schofield back with you now to close out this Wednesday and some of the Locked On Patriots podcast.

And you just heard me sort of pontificate for about 20 minutes or so, sort of stream of consciousness, random brain dump kind of thing about how I feel About the New England Patriots So because I subjected all of you To that I did want to take a moment Here as we are sort of midway point By week point don't have a game To get ready for To again thank you I probably don't Do it enough as I should

But I Am so lucky in that every Weekday plus Sunday sometimes twice on Sundays, I get a chance to sit down and talk with you, Patriots fans, football fans, sports fans, my mom and dad. And you listen to me. You welcome me into your homes, into your commutes, into your workouts, into your lives for 20 to 30, 35 minutes a day. And people across the nation, people across the world do it every single day. And it's an incredible thing to be a part of.

And I've grown to know some of you in the Locked on Patriot Slack channel or on Twitter, elsewhere. Some of you have had me on your Patriots Slack channel or on Twitter, elsewhere. Some of you have had me on your shows that are listeners that have your own content that you're creating, and I'm so happy to be a part of that experience with you. It's a tremendous time to be a football fan and a sports fan because of all the ways that we can create content and all the ways that we can interact. That sort of big wall that used to be up between reader or listener and creator is gone. If you want to ask me a question, you can slide into my DMs on Twitter and people do that all the time. And I love it. I love when

people listen to the show and then see something and they want to ask me about it and they just shoot me an email or shoot me a DM on Twitter or just at me on Twitter about something they heard on the show had some people today talking about how excited they were for the for the tape Tuesday show which I always thought when I was putting together how I was going to construct this show week in, week out, I thought tape Tuesday, oh man, nerdy football stuff. I love it. Well, then it hit me. Maybe other people won't, but it seems people do. And when I took over the show over a year ago now, I never solo hosted a pod. That was something I never thought I'd be able

to do. I still remember that first show I did. I was terrified. I was like, who's going to listen to this? But thousands of you do each day and it blows my mind. And so I thought it was just more than appropriate to take a few minutes here at the end and thank all of you each and every single one of you again, for listening to the show, Dan and Dale, for all the interaction, for the comments, for the reviews, for all the times that you've mentioned it to a friend or somebody else, hey, you should listen to this show. It truly means a lot. It truly blows my mind that people give a crap what I have to say about the game of football. It surprises me every single day that I get to wake up, sit in front of a computer, watch the game that I started playing as a child, that I fell in love with as a child, and now I get to spread that joy that I still have about this game to others in the written form,

the visual form, podcast form and that people enjoy it. And it is still a game that gives me so much joy. It truly does. And as painful as Sunday was to watch as a Patriots fan, I got joy watching Marcus Mario to have success

because he was somebody that I liked coming out of college. As much as they terrify me as a potential AFC championship game matchup, I get such joy watching Patrick Mahomes play the game of football because I think he's truly revolutionizing the offensive game, and it's going to be so much fun to watch going forward. This is still such a fantastic game, and I know many of us Patriots fans are perhaps worried about the day that the Brady-Belichick era ends, but me, there's a part of me out and I was thinking about this today

that is so excited to see what the future has in store for this organization, for this franchise. Because of the commitment to excellence that the crafts on down have demanded from this organization. I'm excited to see the challenges that lie ahead at some point. And I hope to God that I'm still here with all of you when that day comes. Taking you through it. Sharing that experience with all of you. I've been doing this show now for over a year. Some people tell me or ask me, look, is it a grind

doing a daily podcast? And sometimes, yeah. In June? Yeah. But in November? After a loss like that? No. I can't wait to sit down and hit the record button and chat with all of you for 20 to 25 minutes. And for those of you that have been here since day one, I can't thank you enough. For those of you who have just discovered the show, I can't thank you enough. This is your show. I've said it from day one. I'm just happy to be here in the big chair for as long as I can be to share it with all of you. But since I had this moment, I just genuinely wanted to thank each and every one of you for listening, for retweeting, you know, tweets about the show, sharing it with others, leaving reviews on iTunes, all that fun stuff. All of it helps.

All of it, you know, drives me to make this a better better better show every single day so thank you genuinely from the bottom of my heart that will do it for today's show I will be back tomorrow

we are doing take Thursday so please please please since I just spent seven minutes thanking all of you

can you be nice and send in some questions on twitter at Mark Schofield email mark.schofield at inside the pylon dot com

get them in I want to know your thoughts you just heard my thoughtscom. Get them in. I want to know your thoughts. You just heard my thoughts on where the Patriots are. I want to hear your thoughts,

comments, questions, queries, whatever, please, please, please get them in so I can get them

answered until next time. Everybody keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and locked on paper.