Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 15, 2017 - Raiders Talk with Ted Nguyen

Episode Date: November 15, 2017

Ted Nguyen from The Athletic and FanRag joines the show to preview Sunday's game between the Patriots and the Raiders.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Patriots, your daily podcast on the New England Patriots, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome everybody to Locked On Patriots for Wednesday, November 15th. Mark Schofield here with you in the big chair. And as promised, we've got an incredible guest with us today. We're going to start looking at this Oakland Raiders-New England Patriots matchup. Joining us today is my friend Ted Nguyen. He does work for Inside the Pylon with the Inside the Pylon draft guy where he helps me with the quarterbacks.

Actually, I help him with the quarterbacks because he's the QB guru. He works over for USA Football, writes for The Athletic, writes for FanRag. Ted, welcome on in. And did I miss anything? Did I miss any places where you are writing right now?

No, you got it all, except for I'm helping you with quarterbacks, all right? Oh, come on, my friend. Come on. You were the one. Hey, props to you. I will give you credit here at the outset

on your CJ Beathard call because not a on your C.J. Beathard call because not a lot of people were high on Beathard. You liked C.J., and Kyle Shanahan seemed to agree with you, my buddy. Yeah, no, I liked C.J., but even I was surprised that he was drafted in the third round. But, yeah, he's doing well, and I think he's going to have a pretty good career with San Francisco. All right, Ted, the reason I want to have you on is because I don't think there's anybody better at breaking down the Oakland Raiders than you you do a ton of Raiders work your Twitter handle is at Raiders analysis people should definitely be checking you out on Twitter before we dive into the matchup itself let's go look big picture for a second. Where are the Raiders right now?

Are they where you expected they would be coming into the season? Have they fallen short of expectations? What's your overall outlook and picture of the Oakland Raiders? They have definitely fallen short of expectations. They had a wonderful year last year. They were 12-4. This year it looked like they got better in the offseason, thought they had a really good draft,

brought in Jared Cook who's a really good tight end, brought in Marshawn Lynch, but things haven't gone as planned and the Raiders are sitting at 4-5 right now and they're just fighting for their playoff life right now. Definitely not

what people have expected. So every game is going to be like a playoff game from this point on. Headed into this season, like you said, they made some additions over the summer. What were your sort of preseason expectations, your preseason outlook for the Raiders? Well, the Raiders won a lot of really close games last year um and you know there's that uh theory of regression where if you win a lot of close games one year the next year uh you know you're expected to uh regress and lose some of those close games because you know the theory is you can't keep winning those because there's a lot of luck involved uh i thought that

the raiders um weren't going to be the same team they were last year. I thought they were going to improve on what they did last year. They had a lot of young players, and progression is not always linear, but the hope was that they were going to get better as they got older. They added some pieces. So I felt good. I felt like they were going to be a better team, and they weren't going to get themselves in those close game situations.

But unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. And a lot of the blame goes to Todd Downing, who is the new offensive coordinator for the Raiders. I believe he's a really bright coach, and he could have a bright future. But some of his growing pains and learning how to be offensive coordinator for the Raiders. He just, you know, I believe he's a really bright coach and he could have a bright future. But, you know, some of his growing pains and learning how to be an offensive coordinator and a play caller for the first time has really kind of hurt the Raiders.

So, you know, they're in the position they are now. I was going to start on the defensive side of the ball, but you cued that up for me perfectly. So let's dive into down it because, you know, the Raiders got off to a pretty good start. They looked good on the offensive side of the ball, but you cued that up for me perfectly. So let's dive into down and because you know, the Raiders got off to a pretty good start. They looked good on the offensive side of the ball, but the offense has definitely slowed over the past couple of weeks. Watch it Oakland. It seems like it's been schematic. There was a reliance on the quick game getting the ball out of cars hands quickly. And now it seems they've taken a step away from the downfield stuff, which they were so good at last last year has that sort of been your takeaway on down or do you go in a different

direction with him well i think you know with the hot start with down you know the thing with downing is he has never been an offensive coordinator at any level of football and i think it's just a very hard adjustment to go from being an assistant coach to being a play caller because there's all these sorts of things that you don't really think from being an assistant coach to being a play caller because there's all these sorts of things that you don't really think about as an assistant coach that you all all of a sudden are expected to do as an offensive coordinator um you know with a more experienced offensive coordinator they they could deal with adjustments and seeing different things and knowing exactly where to adjust because their experience but. But with Downing, he has zero experience.

So when he has to adjust, that's when the problems come in. The first two games with the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets, you know, the Titans and the Jets lined up how everyone expected them to, and he had a great game plan for them, and they adjusted. But what happens when the raiders played washington when things really started to kind of um fall apart was washington came out with a totally different defense that they haven't showed in the first two weeks of the season and down and just failed to adjust to that um so i think the big problem is learning

how to adjust on a fly and keeping the offense balanced. Like you said, they were really over-reliant on the quick game. What really hurt them was going away from the play-action game. They were by far the lowest team as far as play-action usage in the NFL. That really hurt the run game and the pass game because it just became too easy to key on what they were doing. If the quarterback took a step back, then they knew it was drop. Everybody dropped back. If there was any sort of run action, defenses collapsed on a run because they weren't afraid

of the play action pass. So those kind of things really hurt the offense. I feel like in recent weeks, at least, I look back to that Thursday night game against Kansas City. It looked like there was more of a concerted effort to get downfield. They had the deep shot to Amari early. They had another deep crossing road to Amari, I think, later in the first quarter where they were trying to get more vertical. Have you seen that over the past couple of weeks, trying to get the deep ball into the offensive attack?

Yeah, definitely. I'm pretty sure that Downing and Del Rio have heard all these outside criticisms and they know that they have playmakers and they have to take chances and throw the ball downfield. So yeah, against Kansas City, they took more deep shots and against the Dolphins, they took more deep shots against the Bills.

They, you know, they kind of went back into that conservative mode, and it hurt them. So I think from now on, especially against the Patriots, who play a lot of man coverage, we're going to see a lot more deep shots from this Raiders offense. You and I, Tim, we both know that quarterbacks are incredibly polarized,

and it seems like there's no gray area when it comes to a quarterback. You either love him or hate him. And Derek and Derek Carr I think is in a similar boat it seems like there are people that really love Derek Carr as a QB there are some that just do not think he's a good quarterback at all but what have you seen from Carr this year specifically and how do you think his game has sort of progressed over the past couple of years? Yeah I think every year he's taking has taken a step up as a quarterback and he's made really strong efforts to improve on his weakness weaknesses and uh turn him to strengths uh this year uh i don't really see um a huge progression from what how he's been playing you know like i

said earlier i was expecting him to take another step up as a quarterback but so far this year it hasn't happened and it might because of play calling I think in the beginning of the year he was playing a little tentative and you know trying to get rid of the ball not staying in a pocket letting things progress because of you know that horrific injury that he suffered at the end of last year but I think in the past few weeks he has gotten over that definitely against Chiefs and Miami stood strong in the past few weeks, he has gotten over that, definitely against the Chiefs. And Miami stood strong in the pocket, started sliding around, making plays outside the pocket. So I think he's starting to get over that fear of getting hurt

and playing to the level that he was playing at last year. And hopefully, as the season goes along, they need him to take a step further and improve on that. Another polarizing figure on the Oakland Raiders is Amari Cooper, somebody I loved coming out of Alabama, has seemed to have some issues with drops. What have you seen from Cooper this year? Do you think that's just something that he's going to dog him

throughout his career? Do you think he's going to be able to work through it? It seems like it's going to be something that dogs him throughout his career, or do you think he's going to be able to work through it? It seems like it's going to be something that dogs him in his career. There's a lot of great receivers that has problems dropping balls, and I think that's just going to be a part of Cooper's game. He's a big play guy, excellent route runner, one of the best route runners in the league. But he's going to drop one or two.

So that's going to be a thing with him, like Terrell Owens. And you just have to accept that. One of the big signs that you referenced through the offseason was Marshawn Lynch coming in after a year away from the game. I think it was another year. Maybe it was more. But some time away from the game, comes back in with Oakland to help the run and attack. He's been involved. They've used him even as a wide receiver at times, but how much have they

used him? How much have they utilized him? And do you think he's going to play even more of a role down the stretch for Oakland? Well, I mean, when Marshawn was signed, I expected him only to get about 10 to 16 carries a game. The Raiders have a pretty good staple of running backs with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Rashard, so I didn't feel like it was necessary to run him 20 to 25 times a game, especially with taking a year off and getting up there in terms of age. So this is how much I expected Marchand to be used. Obviously, you would like to see a little more success running the ball, but I think a lot of that had to do with the offensive line and the scheme change.

So, I mean, he is playing well. He's breaking tackles and he's moving the pile. But it just doesn't look like it right now just because the Raiders' run blocking hasn't been as good as it was in the past. But they look like they're starting to get in sync a little bit, so hopefully we see Marshawn have a little more success. But I expect his carries to stay around the same, about 10 to 16. In bigger games, he might get 20-plus against the Patriots.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a bulk of the carries in this game. You know, Ted, you mentioned that offensive line. It was one of the strengths of this team last year. But as you said, struggled a little bit in the early going. Are you seeing them start to gel, start to round into form as the calendar turns into November? Yeah, I definitely think so. Last year, the Raiders did not run almost any outside

zone plays. And this year, with Downey taking over, he really wants to add that to the playbook and make that a big part of the Oakland run scheme. So the outside zone takes a long time to learn. It's not something you can just pick up over an offseason and hit the ground running with. There's timing involved. There's different techniques involved. And in the beginning of the season, it was obviously very messy and didn't look too good. But there are signs in the last couple weeks

that they are starting to get used to the outside zone and executing at a higher level than before. So hopefully as the season progresses, they continue to improve and could actually run that scheme with some more success. We'll have some more with Ted Wynn in a second taking a look at this Raiders defense. That's up next here on Locked on Patriots. Mark Schofield here with Locked on Patriots talking with Ted Nguyen at Raiders Analysis about the Oakland Raiders and this upcoming game between the Patriots and the Raiders.

We're going to shift to the defense now. And Ted, let's start in the secondary. What have you seen from this group? Obviously, they go corner early with Garyon Conley. He's now out. He hasn't played much this season. But what have you seen from this group in the back half of that defense? Obviously, they've struggled.

They've struggled pretty bad. I mean, the Raiders' defense was among the worst in the league last year, but they've actually improved on the front seven. The run defense isn't bad this year. And the linebacker position has been upgraded. But what's been killing this defense are just big plays, and the secondaries is giving up a lot of big plays. They've struggled through some injuries.

Obviously, Reggie McKenzie has tried to address the secondary through a draft by drafting Gary Conley in the first round and Obi Mellon Fonwu safety from UConn in the second round. But they've been hurt uh some of the starters been hurt and they just lack speed right now in the secondary and it's guys have just been getting behind them you know ted you mentioned that linebacker group they've adds added some names to that including navarro bowman recently acquired from san francisco now with the addition of bowman is this becoming a much better group?

And maybe not the strength of this defense, but at least a good solid unit to build around? Yeah, definitely. They have a good core of players. Corey James is going to be his second year. He's playing very well right now. Bowman's lost in speed. He's not the all-around linebacker he was when he was in San Francisco,

but he's still a good leader with experience, instincts, and he helps mentor some of these young guys. He's still good in the run. But I don't think he's going to play too much against the Patriots, especially after what the Patriots did to the Broncos, the linebackers on Sunday night's game. Sunday night games, I would expect to see more of Nicholas Morrow, who is a converted safety

to linebacker, who is a much better cover linebacker than Bowman is. So, yeah, Bowman's been a great addition, but I don't expect him to get as many snaps against the Patriots. You mentioned young guys on defense. Obviously a name that comes to mind is Khalil Mack. What have you seen from Mack this year? How are teams trying to contain him off the edge?

I've seen really strange new ways of containing Mack that I haven't really seen from Offenses studying film in the past few years. You know people are triple teaming in with three tight ends and Throwing all sorts of different double teams at him. So they NFL offenses are aware that you know Mack is a guy that they have to contain if They want to get a solid passing game going. So, yeah, they're doing all they can to take him out of the game. And right now the other guys on the defensive line, Mario Edwards Jr., Bruce Irving, Danico Autry, are inconsistent in their pass rush.

They'll have games where they're really good, even though they're getting one-on-one matchups, and they have games where they just aren't producing. So, yeah, teams are taking away Mack, and other guys are just really inconsistent right now. Now, how has Mack handled that? Because sometimes you see pass rushers, when they get those double teams, those triple teams, like you said, or a double with a chip,

it starts to wear them when they're not as productive in terms of their pass rush. But how has Mack sort of handled the extra attention? I think he's handling it well. I mean, his sack numbers are low right now. But in critical moments, you see him still have the energy. Even though he's playing a lot of snaps, he still has the energy to get a strong rush going. Sometimes he's not exactly hitting home like against Miami in the fourth quarter. He was able to create two pressures even though he was getting double teamed late in the fourth.

So his conditioning is out of the world. And he has a – he's just incredibly – one of the best athletes in the NFL. So he's handling it well. It's just hard to get sacks when you're getting so much attention from offenses. Coming up next, Ted is going to have his pregame predictions and what Patriots fans might be worried about come Sunday afternoon. That's up next here on Locked on Patriots. Here with Ted Wynn at Raiders Analysis on Twitter. We're going to roll into what we expect on Sunday now.

And Ted, you mentioned condition. This game is going to be played down in Mexico City at altitude. What are your thoughts on this game being played down there? What are your expectations for Sunday? Well, I failed biology in high school, i'm not like you and me both my friend what was that you and me both my friend that's why we're doing this right yeah exactly so so i'm not too good with how altitude affects conditioning and what's the best practice to get your body acclimated for it but uh bill belichick seems to think that the best idea is to

uh get you spend a whole week at mile high and get your body acclimated to it, whereas Jack Del Rio said that there's another thought that if you go in and go out, it's the best way to handle that kind of condition. So we'll see who's right and who's the better scientist, Belichick or Del Rio, by the end of the game. Once this game sort of kicks off, Ted, what do you think we're going to see from these teams on Sunday? Well, my head and heart are going in two different directions on this one.

Obviously, as an Oakland native, I want the Raiders to win. I want something wild to happen where the Raiders win a crazy shootout with the Patriots. Maybe those Mexico City fans shoot laser beams into Tom Brady's eyes and he goes to the pick. There you go. But my head says that the Patriots are probably going to win in the landslide. They're just winning. They're playing so well right now. They're on a five-game winning streak.

They picked apart the Broncos' defense. They're so good at just destroying teams and finding their weaknesses and just leaning on that. And the Oakland defense has not been good at hiding their weaknesses. So I feel like it's probably going to get exploited and the offense might not be able to do enough to score enough points or to keep up with Tom Brady. Ted, we'll kind of get you out of here on this one.

Looking ahead to this matchup, what would you have to see sort of early in the game, first quarter, second quarter? Did you let you think, okay, maybe this is going to be one of those crazy games. Maybe Oakland is going to pull this one out. Like what should Patriots fans be worried about? Well, obviously the best way to defend that offense is to keep them off the field. So if the Raiders could establish a strong run game early and eat some clock and move the ball through a run game similarly to what

they did against denver broncos last year on the sunday night game then they stand a chance and also you know it's the age old blueprint of how to defend brady you have to create interior pressure uh so i'm actually hoping that the raiders move mac inside, either mugging the A-gap or actually moving him to defensive tackle sometimes to create interior pressure to get Brady to roll out the pocket and disrupt his timing and make him uncomfortable. So if they can get the run game going and create interior pressure, they stand a chance. If they can't do those two things, I just don't see how they're going to be able to stay in the game. Fantastic stuff, my friend. Ted, let everybody know where they can find you, where they can find your work.

The microphone is yours to close this out. Well, I work with you at Inside the Pylon. We're doing the draft guide this year, a write for USA Football, a write for The Athletic. You can find me on Twitter, at Raiders Analysis. And, Mark, thanks for having me on. Ted, thank you so much for coming on, my friend. Everybody, he is Ted Wynn, at Raiders Analysis on Twitter.

Please follow him if you don't. One of the brightest football minds out there. Does incredible work. That's been our sort of Wednesday edition, our look at the Oakland Raiders. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Scofield, and Locked on Patriots.