Locked On Patriots - Daily Podcast On The New England Patriots - Locked On Patriots November 17, 2017 - Raiders Gameday Edition

Episode Date: November 17, 2017

If it's Friday, it's your Gameday Edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield takes a look back at notable games between the Raiders and the Patriots from years gone by, then has his predictions and analysis on what to watch for Sunday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After reviewing the play, the quarterback's arm was going forward, it is an incomplete thing. Second and ten on the forty-two. If it's Friday, it's your game day edition of Locked On Patriots. Mark Schofield here in the big chair for Friday, November 17th. Your game day edition. And a little Walt Coleman with a cold opener there. Teasing some of what we're going to be talking about here in today's show.

It's your game day edition. I'll get to what our expectations will be for Sunday afternoon with some predictions and stuff. But first, when you talk Raiders-Patriots, it's always good to take a look back because these are two teams that do have a little bit of history. Sunday will actually be the 35th meeting between the Patriots and the Raiders. And believe it or not, the Patriots actually hold the series lead. It's 18-15-1 that the Patriots have over the Raiders right now headed into Sunday. And three games do stand out. Three divisional playoff games.

Almost about 10 years apart between each of them and we're gonna take a look back at those here at the outset and I of course I teased the tuck rule game there with a little Walt Coleman and the ruling to bring us in But that's not where I want to start. I want to start back December 18th, 1976. A divisional round game between the New England Patriots out at Oakland Alameda County Coliseum and the Oakland Raiders. And now this game was going New England's way. With 1-14 left in the third,

the Patriots took a 21-10 lead when former Raider fullback Jess Phillips punched in a three-yard Russian touchdown. But Patriots fans weren't ready to celebrate just yet. And their nerves were taken to a higher level early in the fourth quarter. Mark Van Egan's short touchdown run cut the Patriots' lead to 21-17. That would remain the score until the four minute and 12 second mark of the fourth quarter. New England had a chance to

extend their lead back to seven but Patriots kicker John Smith missed a 50 yard field goal try. That gave Oakland and their quarterback Kenny Stabler a chance to pull out the victory. But it didn't look like they were going to. The Raiders drive stalled for a bit but then the Raiders caught a break. Stabler's pass on third and 18 fell incomplete and the Patriots believed they were one more play away from advancing to an AFC championship game and winning their first ever playoff game. But cue the flag. Armed with new life, the raiders to the afc

championship game and sent the patriots home wondering what might have been the raiders and the patriots would meet three more times in the regular season until the next playoff meeting between the two teams. In those three regular season games, Oakland would win two of them. The Patriots would win one. But then on January 5th of 1986, Raymond Berry and his merry band of Patriots went west to take on the Raiders in another divisional round game. The game was played on NBC Sports. And I'll let Boston area native and at the time a Raiders defensive end Howie Lawn set the stage for the game in what is just an incredible intro by NBC Sports. I'm a member of the winningest team of professional football.

We've been to the playoffs 30-some-odd times. The Patriots have been there six times. Haven't won yet. We'll see who wins today. ¶¶ We're live from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. It's a long walk, about 100 yards through a winding tunnel from the locker rooms down to the field of play. 85,000 await. The Raiders meet the Patriots for a chance to play Miami next week

and then on the road to the Super Bowl as we go to NFL 85 in New York and Bob Costas. That is just simply amazing. And I will also say this. I watched the bulk of this game. There's a YouTube video of the entire game, including commercials. And some of the commercials were just incredible to watch. Just a trip down memory lane. And if memory serves me right, I do believe that, and my mom, who I know is listening,

will correct me on this if I get it wrong, but I do believe I had a birthday party the day of this game. It was either the day of this game or the week prior when the Patriots played the Jets. But I remember a birthday party centered around making signs with all my friends to cheer the Patriots on for this game. But an amazing, amazing intro there from NBC Sports. And the game was tied 17-17 until late in the second quarter when the Raiders got on a drive led by quarterback Mark Wilson. But the drive stalled, set on the stage for a field goal try to give the Raiders the lead at the break.

Bar's third attempt of the half, he was good from 29, he missed from 44, this one will be 32 yards. And the Raiders have the lead. Barsfield goal gave the Raiders a 20-17 lead at halftime. Up next, we're going to have the thrilling conclusion to that divisional round game. And of course, a look at the tuck rule. That's next here on Locked On Patriots with me, Mark Schofield. Midway through the third quarter, running back Marcus Allen lost a fumble and that led to a field goal try from Tony Franklin, the Patriots barefooted kicker. or 36-yard attempt by Franklin to tie.

20 a leg, and it's even again as Franklin drills it from 36 yards. Time out, one minute, 11 seconds remaining in a third-quarter tie game. Franklin's kick tied the game at 20, but it was the ensuing kickoff that would be the play of the game. Raiders defensive back Sam Seale was going to return the kick, but never controlled the ball, and the Patriots capitalized. Kick to Sammy Seale at the 5. Oh, no place to hide.

Fumbles again, and New England. They have a touchdown. They do. Seals' fumble was recovered by Patriots defensive back Jim Bowman for a touchdown. That gave the Patriots a 27-20 lead. It was also the second fumble recovery by Bowman in the game. He recovered a muffed punt by Raiders punt returner Fulton Walker early in the first quarter, which set up a 13-yard touchdown pass from Tony Eason to Lynn Dawson. But this play, which went for a touchdown, gave the Patriots a 27-20 lead. And that was how the

game would end. Even though there was still a full quarter left, the Raiders would get no further in the game than the Patriots' 41-yard line. Their three drives in the fourth quarter would go for a punt, an interception by Fred Marion, and a turnover on downs. The Patriots were on their way to Miami to face Dan Marino and the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Championship game. And the Patriots would win that AFC Championship game and go on to face the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XX. And, well, we know how that played out. But now let's spin it forward to the year 2002. The Patriots, enjoying somewhat of a magical season under new quarterback Tom Brady host

the Raiders on a Saturday night, January 19, 2002, a snowy night in Foxborough. And while this might have been the night that perhaps a legend was born, late in the fourth quarter it certainly didn't look like that. Trailing 13-10 late in the fourth quarter, the Patriots faced a first down in Raiders territory. But Charles Woodson blitzed off the edge, hit quarterback Tom Brady, knocked the ball loose, and the Raiders recovered. New England thought the game was over. But enter NFL Rule 3, Section 22, Article 2, Note 2. The Tuck Rule.

After reviewing the play, the quarterback's arm was going forward. It is an incomplete three. Second and ten on the 42. Wow. Walt Coleman's ruling gave the Patriots new life, and it set the stage for Adam Vinatieri, the kicker delivered on two of the greatest kicks in postseason history, first to send the game to overtime, and then to send the Patriots to Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. season on the line the kick is away it is good

this is to advance to the AFC championship game The Patriots win it. 16-13 in overtime. That kick propelled the Patriots to the AFC Championship game. And well, we know how things went from there. If you do need a refresher though, there are five podcasts you can turn to for a little reminder of five Super Bowl victories. I hope you enjoyed this sort of look back at the Raiders and the Patriots over the years. Up next, we're going to talk about this year and my expectations for Sunday when these two teams square off down in Mexico City. That's up next here with me, Mark Schofield, and Locked

On Patriots. Okay people, so we've taken a look back at some Raiders-Patriots games in the past. Now let's look ahead to Sunday and you've got the seven and two New England Patriots, the four and five Oakland Raiders squaring off down in Mexico City. And let's get to sort of my expectations for Sunday. And we can start when the Patriots have the football. And I kind of want to start with, you know, I've read Ted Wynn. Had him on Wednesday's show. You should definitely be following Ted on Twitter. He is at Raiders Analysis on Twitter.

And, you know, he's one of the best Raiders minds out there. One of the best football minds out there. I get to work with him each year on the Inside the Pylon draft guide where he and I analyze quarterbacks together. Just a brilliant football mind. And kind of what he's looking at for Sunday, when the Patriots have the football. And you can hear what he was talking about.

Look, this defense, this Raiders defense, it's struggling right now. His expectations for Sunday are basically the best way that Oakland has a chance to win this game is if it turns into a shootout you know but in terms of the Raiders defense when the Patriots have the football here are some numbers for you I've talked about football outsiders in the past they're DVO a defense adjusted value over average okay average. This is a bottom five, if not worse, type of defense. When you look at football outsiders, just overall defense, Oakland, last in the league. Pass defense, Oakland, last in the league. Run defense, Oakland, 24th in the league. But against the pass and overall, this is a basement, bottom-dwelling defense

that the Patriots are going up against. Continuing over at Football Outsiders, looking at their defense, this Oakland defense and DVOA against types of receivers. Against the team's number one receiver, again, admittedly, by football outsiders, a subjective way they're looking at it, but still. Oakland, 31st in the league against number one receivers.

Oakland, against number two receivers, 24th in the league against other types of wide receivers, slot type guys. Danny Amendola, for example, 28th in the league against tight ends in the passing game, 30th in the league. Against running backs in the passing game, 28th in the league. Look, if Tom Brady doesn't have a huge game, it's because something crazy happened. It's because, like Ted said, maybe we see again the laser pointers

in the stands distracting people. Because that's kind of what happened the last time teams were down in Mexico City. But this is a bad defense that the Patriots get to go up against. This is a defense that has struggled against tight ends, against receivers, against running backs, against the pass, against the run. Are you sensing a pattern here?

So the Patriots should put up points. If they don't, it's an eat the tweet type of situation. I'm not saying I will. I'm just saying it's an eat the tweet type of situation. But the one thing that does scare me, it has to scare everybody. It's kind of a two-fold thing. First, Khalil Mack. Can't deny that he's a tremendously talented pass rusher. Now, the Patriots have been able to contain guys like Khalil Mack.

We saw it last week. Von Miller was basically a non-factor in that game to the point where the Broncos were dropping him into coverage. And that's a defense that is better in the secondary than what the Patriots will see on Sunday. And so Tom Brady, this New England offense, I expect them to put up points. I expect them to have a big game.

The one thing that might scare me is if they can somehow scheme some ways to get Mac into the pocket maybe they drop him inside because here's the other thing David Andrews wasn't spotted at practice today is there an injury issue there something to watch over the weekend something to watch closer to game time but I'm really not that worried about this Oakland defense right now. It's a bottom type of unit that hasn't shown signs of improving. Maybe they scheme Khalil Mack. Maybe they do some stuff, but sitting here watching this team week to week up to this point, not that worried about it.

Now, when the Raiders have the ball, this is the scenario that worried about it. Now when the Raiders have the ball, this is the scenario that could play out. Look, New England's defense statistically not a lot better than Oakland's to this point. I mean where Oakland is the worst team overall,

the worst team defense according to DVOA, New England checks in at a nice clean 30. Just two spots above Oakland. Past defense. Oakland last. New England again a nice and tidy 30. Run defense. Oakland 24th.

New England checks in at 29. But the difference between the two units is this we've seen New England starting to get better we talked about it with Ted Wim we talked about it with Adam Kirchhen we've seen this defense start to round into form something they seem to do year in and year out so when the Raiders have the football is there the potential for this to turn into a shootout type game? Certainly. Is Amari Cooper, for example, a talented wide receiver?

Certainly. Is Michael Crabtree a talented wide receiver? Certainly. Is Derek Carr a talented quarterback? Yeah, he is. You know, and I'm somebody that's kind of stood up for Carr in their past. Stood up for him a little bit this year You know but watching their offense And we talked about it with Ted

There's a schematic element to it That just hasn't clicked yet And Ted talked about how Todd Downing hasn't been a play caller before Hasn't called plays in the past And you need to learn how to Make adjustments at halftime Adjust to things on the fly a play caller before, hasn't called plays in the past, and you need to learn how to make adjustments at halftime, adjust to things on the fly.

Haven't seen a consistent sort of game plan from them. A lot of quick stuff, a lot of short stuff early. Their game against Kansas City, that Thursday night game, started to get more vertical. Maybe they put it together and get more vertical in this game,

but it's a big ask. Is there a chance this turns into a shootout? Yeah, maybe it does. But even there, I still favor New England. Because when I look at these defenses, I think they're both not great defenses right now. But New England is a little bit better and seems to be improving, whereas Oakland still seems to be struggling.

So if you strip it all away, maybe that's just the difference. Maybe even if this does turn into a shootout, New England will still have enough to come out with a victory on Sunday. So I think even worst case scenario type stuff, it does turn into a shootout. New England still wins. Let's look at the line. New England given seven.

I'm giving the points. We did it last week on the road with Denver. I'm giving the points in this one too. Over 55. Big number. You know, and I'm giving the points in this one too. Over 55, big number. And I'm looking here right now, and only that Washington-New Orleans game has an over-under in the 50s. That's 51. New England, Oakland, 55. I mean, I'm seeing some college games that are in the 55 and higher area, but that's the only NFL game

that's got that double nickel. That's a big number. And I'm going to go under on this one. For all the talking I've just done about, you know, maybe this turning into a shootout, I don't think it quite gets there. I don't think it quite gets there. I don't think it gets to 55. I think New England wins

this. I think they cover the 7. I'm expecting maybe a 27-14 kind of game. I don't think this turns into the big type of shootout where we're going to see a 55 and see the overhead on that. But that's where I am on this game.

I think New England takes care of this game. I think they cover the seven. I'm much more confident in the non-shootout scenario, shall we say. But even if something crazy does happen, even if these teams just go out and put tons of points on the board,

I still think New England would have enough to win. So there you go, everybody. That's been your Friday game day edition here of Locked On Patriots. Went into the vault for a little bit, looked at some divisional games between these two teams, these two organizations. Helped get you ready, set the stage for what should be a fun and exciting game Sunday afternoon.

I will be back Sunday night with your instant snap reaction show. Until then, everybody, have a great weekend. Thank you so much for the support for the show. We're going to be getting into the holiday season again. If conversations get awkward around the Thanksgiving

Day table, just bring up the show. Good way to diffuse the tension. Tell everybody about Locked On Patriots. I'd up the show. Good way to diffuse the tension. Tell everybody about Locked On Patriots. I'd certainly appreciate it. I would also appreciate it if you go to iTunes, the Locked On Patriots page over on iTunes, leave a review.

Also, don't forget, check out LockedOnPatriots.com. Putting stuff up there all the time. There's a piece on motion madness that I put up there this week. Check that out as well. Again, have a great weekend, everybody. Hope you enjoyed the week of shows. I will be back Sunday night. Until then, keep it locked right here to me, Mark Schofield and Locked on Patreons.